Oh Boy, Jason’s blog has gotten so huge that he’s getting guest posters now. In fairness, I felt compelled to write an America East Preview for the upcoming tournament, for all the adoring fans.

In being honest, there are any of seven teams in the America East capable of winning the autobid to the NCAA tournament, though only one will be avoiding the play-in game, I would suspect, and that’s UMBC. Albany, Vermont, BU and Hartford could also potentially avoid it, but their odds are not very good.

Maine is a much better team than Stony Brook, with more quality depth and more quality talent. Mark Socoby is slightly better than Ricky Lucas, and I like guys like Jordan Cook, Brian Andre, Kaimondre Owes and Junior Bernal more than I like Mitchell Beautford, Manny Neto, Demetrius Young (the most unheralded player in the America East) and Michael Tyree. Should be a close one, but Socoby will will (heh) Maine to a loss at UMBC the next day. Interestingly, Maine beat UMBC this season, but I don’t see it happening twice.

I already alluded to it, but yes, I like UMBC over Maine in the first quarterfinals game. Maine has no answer for stud PG Jay Greene or the inside presence of Cavell Johnson and Daryll Proctor (both are face-up guys more than low-post guys, but I don’t think Cook, Andre, PT Bofia, Troy Barnies or the like can match up). If Ray Barbosa or Brian Hodges get hot, this game will be a blowout.

UMBC will face the winner of the Vermont/Binghamton clash. I’m going to disagree with Jason here and go with Bing, though with a caveat: Laz “Tunabitch” Trifunovich will have to play in this one. Laz is a top three America East player, along with Marqus Blakely and Corey Lowe, and he is unstoppable in the post. He will neutralize Blakely and his 6’5 frame, though Blakely’s tough. I think Mike Trimloverrated will have a lousy game, and Mike Gordon and Richie Forbes will shine. Doesn’t hurt that this game is at home, either.

In the UMBC/Bing matchup, I still like UMBC, though it will be awfully close. Bing has a little bit more depth, with Dwayne Jackson, Reggie Fuller and Brandon Herbert coming off the bench (in comparison to Spadafora and Fry for UMBC), but I don’t think Bing has the size to deal with Hodges and Barbosa on the wings. I think Hodges is going to abuse Chretien Lukusa, if in fact that’s the match up. I like Reggie Fuller’s chances of shutting down Cavell Johnson, and Proctor/Laz is a similar matchup. Binghamton hasn’t been playing well lately, though, and I think that seniors Barbosa, Johnson and Hodges will not let this team fall in this way. They can’t be happy to see Bing in their half of the bracket, though.

In the other half of the bracket, BU and Albany square off in the best quarterfinal game. I really, really like BU, and it’s no surprise that I’m going to pick them to win this one. Corey Lowe is an America East stud, and John Holland is the best second option in the AE (sorry Trimblowsi). Tyler Morris (if healthy), Carlos Strong, Scott Brittain and Matt Wolff are all very good, too. Marques Johnson is a good change of pace guy, and between Gotzler, Sirutis and Konate, they should have enough backup size to compete. Albany does cause matchup problems, as Lillis is a big SF, and Wilson and Connolly are big guys at PF and C. Wilson is mostly perimeter oriented, and has had a difficult season, but this team is playoff tested. They miss Jamar Wilson, obviously, and have lacked that bunch, but Lillis and Wilson could win this game for them. I like Corey Lowe winning this game on the last possession for BU, prolonging his inevitable transfer to UMass.

In the only upset of the quarterfinals, UNH will knock Hartford off. Hartford is a solid team, don’t get me wrong, and Zeglinski is the best player on either team. Gibbs is going to have to shut him down, and he is a fantastic perimeter defender, so I’m excited about that matchup. I don’t think Hartford can deal with the athleticism of the other UNH guards, however. Alvin Abreu has been playing possessed of late, and if Michael Turner has to guard him, then either Eric Gilchrese or Tyrone Conley is going to have an advantage going against Jaret Von Rosenberg. Come to think of it, Turner (6-4) will likely be on Gibbs (a big 6-2/6-3). Zeglinski and Von Rosenberg will have their hands full. I think Christensen and Sabia are a wash, so it’s going to come down to how Dane Diliegro handles Anthony Minor and the occasional Warren Mclendon siting. If Mclendon has a big game, UNH will lose, but if not, I think they’ll put it out. These two have split during the regular season, both in lopsided ways, so anything can happen. However, UNH is playing their best basketball of the season at the right time.

BU will knock UNH out. UNH cannot stop Corey Lowe, period. Scott Brittain dominated Dane Diliegro in both matchups, and they have the athletic answers to deal with Abreu and Conley. The only hope for UNH is for Mike Christensen to use his size advantage on Matt Wolff or John Holland, but it surely hasn’t happened to this juncture.

UMBC and BU in the finals, at UMBC. I think BU is the best team in the conference, and I think they’ll win. To me, skill wise, Morris and Greene are a wash, Lowe/Strong/Wolff and Hodges/Barbosa are a wash, Johnson/Brittain are mostly a wash. I think John Holland will be able to outquick Daryll Proctor repeatedly, and maybe go for 30 in a win.

BU (if Lowe doesn’t transfer), Vermont and UNH are my 2008-2009 Top 3.

-Matt-