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THE MOSTLY ELITE 8

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

I showed my hand last round when I said that Joe Burrow would beat either Lawrence or Zach Wilson. Obviously Trevor Lawrence isn’t winning this matchup today. Maybe in five years, when Allen crosses into his 30s, Lawrence will be better than him. Right now though, he’s all projection. Allen is real. And he’s really good. 

3. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

This was the championship match in the 2019 iteration of this exercise, a matchup that Mahomes won. Since that time, Jackson’s statistics have regressed. His completion percentage has dropped each season. He’s throwing for fewer yards. Until this season, he was even averaging fewer yards per carry. If most of the other NFL franchises hadn’t locked up a player of Jackson’s incredible ability, I’d think they were completely insane. Baltimore has earned the right to be regarded as only mildly insane. There is no better QB out there who will be readily available this offseason, next offseason, etc. Especially given how Balitmore’s offense is set up. In a hypothetical world, Aaron Rodgers isn’t moving into this offensive scheme and experiencing a career renaissance. As for Mahomes, the clear winner here, Kansas City traded away his most explosive receiving option, replaced him with Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and he hasn’t missed a damn beat. He is so absurdly consistent. Every single year as a starter, his completion percentage has finished between 65.9 and 66.3%. He’s on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards this season. He turns absolutely nothing into something every single time he steps on the field. And yes, sometimes he does too much and gets caught. But more often than not, he’s doing something we’ve never seen before. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, the biggest frame, the fastest sprint speed, the height, etc etc. He’s just the best. Plain and simple.

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 5. Dak Prescott (DAL)

Hurts is a good example of how a QB can develop when there’s talent around him. I know that’s a “well duh” comment, but it seems like a lot of player personnel people in the NFL think you can just will a QB to be good. Hurts was inconsistent last season. There were some Eagles fans who were hoping for Gardner Minshew to take over the team. A lot can change in a year! Philly swung a huge draft night trade for Tennessee’s superstar WR AJ Brown. It’s hard to say that Brown’s presence alone accounts for Hurts’ wild ascension to MVP candidate. But it doesn’t…..oh god….hurt……… Hurts has actually regressed as a runner, averaging 2 fewer yards per carry. Where he hasn’t regressed is in passing. He’s completing 68% of his passes with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. He’s on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards and he’s not dinking and dunking. He’s averaging 8.5 yards per completion. He has been very, very good. But is he better than Dak Prescott? I don’t think Jalen has done enough to surpass Dak. This was, by far, the closest quarterfinal matchup (and the de facto NFC championship matchup). Hurts’ half season of exceptional play isn’t enough to overtake what Dak has done in his 7 seasons, which statistically speaking is basically Hurts’ 2022 season. 

14. Justin Fields (CHI) vs. 2. Kirk Cousins (MIN)

Kirk Cousins is the only QB over 30 to reach the quarterfinals. Truthfully, this says a lot more about his path here and about the youth movement at the QB position than it does Cousins. You could, theoretically, argue that Justin Fields and Trey Lance are in a similar position and given that Cousins has beaten Lance already, he should advance to the NFC championship. My counterargument goes like this: No. Fields has been in a really unforgiving situation in Chicago, for any QB, nevermind a 23 year old. I shudder to think what Kirk Cousins, a QB with 1/10th the running ability of Fields, would produce with the cast of characters Fields performs with every week. The most troubling thing for me when evaluating Fields is that his accuracy has not improved from his first season. In fact, he’s completing a marginally lower percentage of his 2022 passes while only passing for a marginally higher yard per completion number. It’s not like the Bears are running the Mike Leach Texas Tech offense. Quite frankly, I wish they were, because I think it would be easier to tell what Fields can be as a QB. If he’s a sub-60% accuracy QB with mobility, is that a franchise QB? By contrast, Lamar Jackson completed 66% of his passes in his second season, when he won the MVP. And I don’t think Fields is quite the runner that Lamar is. Working in Fields’ favor over Trey Lance is that he’s a season and a half into his career. We’ve seen flashes of what he can be. And he can be very good. Working in Fields’ favor over Cousins is that he’s 11 years his junior and so much more dynamic. 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

For as long as both guys are in the AFC, they’re going to find each other. In terms of profile alone, Allen is Super-Sized Mahomes. Bigger, faster, stronger arm, stronger in general. I mean, he’s 6’5”, 240 LBS and he’s a QB. The reason why I lean Mahomes over Allen in this, the marquee Final Four game, is that he’s more accurate with the football and when he reaches into his bag to make a highlight play, he more often than not hits. Meanwhile, Allen has the tendency to turn makable first downs into interceptions. I’m certainly picking nits here. These two are far and away the two best QBs in the NFL and number 3, whoever that is, isn’t close.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

5. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 13. Justin Fields (CHI)

This is the early Final Four game. 6:09 p.m. EST tip-off. This is another case of Prescott winning because he’s been consistently good and that matters more, at this point, than potential. 

CHAMPIONSHIP

Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. Dak Prescott (DAL)

It’s Patrick Mahomes. It was always going to be Patrick Mahomes. Dak Prescott is a good, almost underrated quarterback. When he’s healthy, he’s an absolute Top 10, probably Top 7 NFL QB. And we’ve seen runs from Dak where he hits another gear. But he’s not Mahomes. No one is. Time will tell if Joe Burrow finds another gear or Justin Fields grows into his immense potential or Justin Herbert gets an offensive coordinator who isn’t scared of him. Even when that happens, I’m not sure that any of those guys are better than Mahomes. He’s the Stephen Curry of the NFL. He’s doing things that others will mimic but no one will replicate. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime talent.