Like I said, “whenever I get around to it.” Let’s just jump into the National League (the more interesting league), shall we?

NL EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Strasburgs

Breakdown: There was a time (two days ago) where I would have argued to you that the Atlanta Braves were a World Series contender, until I watched them intently last night and I saw a team with many holes. Lets look at the rotation first: Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, and Kris Medlen. The pitching version of Murderer’s Row that is not. With Hudson you know what you’re getting. 7 innings, 2 Runs, 1 Walk, 2 Strikeouts. Or something like that. But let’s look at what the rest of the rotation has done. If I told you that Kris Medlen had the best winning % and lowest ERA, wouldn’t you be a little concerned? And if I told you that only Jurrjens was allowing fewer than 9 hits per 9 IP, would you be a little concerned? And if I told you that only Medlen and Hanson had ERA+s over 93, would you be a little concerned? Say Atlanta makes the playoffs, who from that rotation do you want starting Game 2. Kris Medlen? Good luck.

Philly on the other hand throws two aces at you (Halladay and Oswalt). And, you’d likely be surprised to learn that Cole Hamels has not been all that bad this year, himself. Yes, he’s 7-7. But his K/9 ratio is higher than Halladay’s. And his H/9 is just a smidge more than Doc’s. And his ERA+ is a very nice (for a number 2 starter) 119. After Hamels, you’re left with Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick, or what I lovingly call, “spare parts.” However, give me the team with two and potentially three aces in their rotation and we’ll worry about the spare parts later.

Atlanta’s pitching is not their only hole either. I’ve watched them play a handful of times this year and am not impressed with their overall approach. I saw them almost get no-hit by Scott Olsen earlier this year because they were about as patient as a 28 year old virgin (it’s fine, no one reads this). They’re getting a career year from Martin Prado, getting some RBI from an aging corner infielder, and relying heavily on a 20 year old rookie. Meanwhile Chipper Jones is batting at about the Kung Fu Panda line (mid-.250s), all the while playing atrocious defense. How many home runs do they have from all of their 5 outfielders? That would be 29 total homers. I don’t see it.

Philadelphia has “struggled” as a team at the plate this year (I say “struggled” because they’re 8th in Major League Baseball in terms of runs scored. Atlanta is 12th.), but position by position (except for catcher and rightfield) the Phillies trot out experienced hitters who are simply better (and more proven) than their Atlanta counterparts. I fully expect Philly to win the East and for Atlanta to hit a wall sometime in mid-August.

As a quick note, if you think the New York Mets, one of the worst road teams in baseball are going to vault Atlanta and Philadelphia, you’re a crazy person.

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Breakdown: This is a two team race and should be an exciting one. The Cincinnati Reds are a very interesting team. Interesting, however, is not a synonym for “good.” Yes, they have Joey Votto and (to a lesser extent) Brandon Phillips, but they also rely heavily on a rookie centerfielder (Drew Stubbs), a rightfielder who shows no signs of being a disciplined hitter (Jay Bruce), and an atrocious leadoff hitter (Orlando Cabrera). However, for me, all you need to know is that Johnny Gomes starts for them. And while Johnny Gomes is having a career year, I’m not exactly sure that a career year from someone like Johnny Gomes is such a great thing to tout.

Of course, Cincinnati’s “interesting” lineup has produced, something that can’t be said about the St. Louis Cardinals. Albert Pujols is having an off year and frankly, doesn’t look “right.” In fact, he looks hurt. And Matt Holliday hasn’t exactly been a world beater. The Cardinals have had such a spotty offensive year that only 5 players on their roster currently qualify for the batting title (7 Reds do). That said, I’m a pitching guy. And St. Louis has it.

If Philadelphia has the best 1-2-3 (with Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) in the NL, St. Louis is a close 2nd. Jamie Garcia might not be a household name and might not have overpowering stuff, but he does have the numbers (9-4, 2.33 ERA, 7.29 K/9). And at the top of the rotation, well, it’s hard to argue against Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Unless, of course, you don’t like great pitchers.

Cincinnati counters with, um, Bronson Arroyo? Mike Leake? Travis Wood? Edinson Volquez? Johnny Cueto? Mix-and-match and you’ll not come close to St. Louis’ 1-2-3.

I have more confidence in Cincinnati to win this division than I do Atlanta to win theirs for what it’s worth, if anything. There’s enough of that weird unexplainable stuff (aura, I guess it’s called) with the Reds. They’ve played above their heads for a while, but I think ultimately, their inexperience will catch up to them. But I won’t be shocked if they come out on top.

NL WEST
1. San Francisco Giants
2. San Diego Padres (wild card)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Breakdown: If I had written this post at the All-Star break, I would have had Colorado winning this division. (Coincidentally, if you’d like to buy a $10 ticket for the Rockies to win the World Series at 20-1 odds, it’s yours). Since the All-Star break however, the Rockies have been the worst team in baseball (along with the Orioles, but you know, that’s to be expected). What looked like the best race in baseball, with four teams vying for a division title, today is a three team race.

Most people, myself included thought the Padres were going to be miserable this season. This is what I wrote in my season preview: “San Diego is an absolute mess. Where should I start? Jon Garland is their “ace.” David Eckstein is their everyday second baseman. There is so much youth on this team and none of it is worth getting really excited about. I really feel bad for Adrian Gonzalez because he deserves better than whatever this team is doing. I hope, for his sake, that he’s playing first base in San Francisco or Boston or Atlanta by season’s end.”

As it turns out, Mat Latos is their ace and in the year of the pitcher, maybe it doesn’t matter if David Eckstein is your everyday second baseman. Latos, Garland, and Clayton Richard have been way better than anyone expected. At the back end of the rotation, Wade LeBlanc and Kevin Correia might not be names that’ll have you excited, but they’ve had moments of effectiveness this season. And the Padres have an elite bullpen. The names are not sexy. At all. But the Padres have been this good all season. And aren’t showing any sign of quitting. I can’t believe I’m writing this, but I really do think they’re going to take the NL Wild Card.

In the division race though, I give the edge to the Giants because of their pitching certainly, but also because of the arrival of some offense in the form of Buster Posey and Andres Torres. The Giants are currently the hottest team in baseball for a reason: they’re balanced. With their offensive improvements, I’m not sure that there’s a legitimate issue with the Giants. Great rotation (best 1-5 in the NL, bar none). Solid lineup, not great, but increasingly effective. Great closer in Brian Wilson. Effective bullpen. Manager who’s been there before and knows what he’s doing. The Dodgers don’t have the rotation or bullpen (beyond Broxton and Kuo) that San Francisco does. And really, I don’t know that the Dodgers lineup is that much better at this point.

So Who’s Winning It All?
Not the Pittsburgh Pirates.

American League Playoffs:
WILD CARD ROUND
Texas vs. Tampa Bay- This is the most intriguing matchup imaginable. TV ratings won’t exactly be great, but the intrigue will be. The AL’s best rotation faces the AL’s best offense. Cliff Lee vs. David Price (twice, because this will go 5 games). Can one of Texas’ “other” pitchers step up and match Matt Garza and Jeff Niemann? I’m giddy at the possibility of this series. It’ll be very close. But I’ll take Tampa Bay (3-2)

New York vs. Minnesota- This is the opposite of intriguing. New York (3-1)

LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP
New York vs. Tampa Bay- They’re close. Very close. (New York 4-3)

National League Playoffs:
WILD CARD ROUND
San Francisco vs. St. Louis- This will be a dream matchup for lovers of pitching. Lincecum vs. Wainwright. Cain vs. Carpenter. Garcia vs. Zito/Bumgarner/Sanchez (I prefer Bumgarner, but that likely won’t happen). If Pujols was healthy, I think the short series would favor the Cardinals, but I don’t think he is. San Francisco has enough offense to win a very tight series. San Francisco (3-2)

Philadelphia vs. San Diego- The road will stop here for the Padres. Too much pitching. Too much offense. This would be a nightmare draw for them. (Philadelphia 3-0)

LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP
San Francisco vs. Philadelphia- I could go with my heart here or my head. My heart tells me to take Willie Mays’ team. Take Barry Bonds’ team. Take youth. Take Posey. Take Torres. Take Bumgarner, Sanchez, Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval. Take the gorgeous uniforms. Take the breathtaking ballpark. Take Kuiper and Krukow. My head tells me to take the two-time pennant winners, with the dueling aces and all that power. I like my heart more than my head. (San Francisco 4-3)

WORLD SERIES
San Francisco vs. New York- What a classic matchup, eh? Savor it while you can. It won’t last long. My heart loses. (New York 4-1)

I did mention that I would talk about where available players would best fit, but I realize that that’s kind of a foolish undertaking. The best players belong on the teams who need them. The elite teams (New York, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia) don’t need to add players like Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, Zack Greinke, etc. Adding them would just make them better. Detroit, Chicago (AL), Cincinnati, St. Louis, Atlanta, San Francisco, San Diego, etc could use those players in some form or variety. All the wasted space on trade speculation is really just that. Let’s just sit back and enjoy the next three months, shall we? We shall.

I love late July in Major League Baseball. Player movement, teams deciding their short and long-term futures, surprise teams still in the hunt, etc. etc. As I type this, there are 13 teams who are 8 games or fewer behind their division’s leader. That’s 19 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. And so for teams like the Boston Red Sox, who are 8 games behind the New York Yankees, the question is, “Do we have a shot?” And if so, “Do we push all of our chips into the center of the table and go for it?” And if we go for it, “Who are we willing to give up to get what we need?” And then what happens if you don’t get there? You could end up like the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, who in 2002 thought they had a shot at the playoffs in late July, and acquired Bartolo Colon, a proven ace and a workhorse, for the stretch run. The Expos missed the playoffs that year by 12.5 games. And to get Bartolo Colon? Well, the Exponationals gave up a few prospects named Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee. And today, the Nationals are not one of the 19 teams with a shot at the playoffs. And they haven’t been a team with a shot at the playoffs since then. Instead, they’re the ones who are looking to target the teams who ask themselves the question, “Do we have a shot?” And Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM will be trying to convince everyone from the Chicago White Sox to the Chicago Cubs that, yes, they have a chance. This is why I love late July. Lots of thinking. Lots of overthinking. And everyone’s baseball future hangs in the balance. For years to come.

You would think that that was it for this post, but I’m not going absent for one month and returning with just one paragraph of narrative. It’s prediction time. Doing this before the trade deadline might seem counterproductive to the idea of being correct. I have no idea where Roy Oswalt, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Edwin Jackson, Ty Wigginton, Brett Myers, Lance Berkman, etc. are going in the next 5 days. But I don’t want to be the guy or gal who hops on a team’s bandwagon after a big trade (ahem…LA Angels). So I’ll try and be a step ahead of the curve.

I’ll list the divisions in terms of how I think they’ll finish up. And then some breakdown:

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Breakdown: This looks a lot like the standings today, because it is. The Yankees and Rays are the class of this group, but to me, the Yankees are a hair better than Tampa. The Rays pitching has been very good (with the exception of James Shields who would not be one of their 3 playoff starters). David Price has been Cy Young quality. Wade Davis has been a pleasant surprise. And Jeff Niemann and Matt Garza have been as good as advertised. I’m not quite sure I understand why they would trade the farm for Zack Greinke. Pitching is not their issue. Their inability to get on base consistently is their problem. Of the Rays players with at least 300 ABs this year (there are 6), half of them are getting on-base below a 33% clip. In addition, 3 of those guys have sub-.400 SLG. %. The Yankees also have 6 players with at least 300 ABs. All of them have an .OBP of .330 or higher (Derek Jeter has the lowest at .340.) Jeter is also the only one of the six with a Slugging % below .400. Jeter’s is .396. You see my point. They guys who are playing most for the Yankees are performing better offensively than the Rays. By a lot. As for the Red Sox, because they deserve mention, I would be shocked if they make the playoffs. In fact, I don’t think they should acquire anyone of consequence at the trade deadline. The Sox’s system is stacked. They don’t need to unstack for what is ultimately a futile cause. Too many injuries this year. They’ll be back in 2011.

AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

Breakdown: The Whtie Sox surge is just that I think. The Twins were my pick at the start of the year and will remain as such because I really think they’re the most balanced team. Justin Morneau was arguably the AL MVP when he went down with a concussion in early July. They’ve more than stayed afloat in his absence. They’re a game back today. When he returns, he bolsters a lineup that can just do more than Chicago’s (all power) and Detroit’s (all Miggy). The Tigers have been hit hard by injury recently and frankly, I don’t know that they have enough in their rotation to get them to the playoffs, especially with Verlander having a slightly off year. Minnesota has pitching. Scott Baker has been wildly inconsistent this year and is certainly the wild card for the Twins. If he can right his own ship, Minnesota wins this division fairly easily.

AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. LA Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

Breakdown: LA can steal Dan Haren from Arizona all they want. They cannot compete with Texas. The Rangers success hinges entirely on their pitching. You might not like the names “Tommy Hunter,” “Scott Feldman,” “CJ Wilson,” and “Colby Lewis,” but you cannot argue that they’ve all performed quite well this year. And their rotation is anchored by the best pitcher in baseball. Bar none. Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball. Keep saying it. Let the stigma of “Cliff Lee” wash over you. Remind yourself about his early career struggles. Do you feel good? Now look at what Cliff Lee has done since the start of the 2008 season. In 3 full seasons, he’s walked only 80 batters, with an ERA around 2.75. Heck, look at the sabremetric stats that I don’t even understand. Even those are good. His ERA+ is 162 this season. That’s a big number. Okay, Cliff Lee tangent aside, even if the Rangers pitching takes a slight step back, is there a better lineup in baseball? Chris Davis is their number 9 hitter! And they have a dominant closer and very solid bullpen. If the Texas Rangers don’t scare you, you’re missing the mark.