I love late July in Major League Baseball. Player movement, teams deciding their short and long-term futures, surprise teams still in the hunt, etc. etc. As I type this, there are 13 teams who are 8 games or fewer behind their division’s leader. That’s 19 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. And so for teams like the Boston Red Sox, who are 8 games behind the New York Yankees, the question is, “Do we have a shot?” And if so, “Do we push all of our chips into the center of the table and go for it?” And if we go for it, “Who are we willing to give up to get what we need?” And then what happens if you don’t get there? You could end up like the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, who in 2002 thought they had a shot at the playoffs in late July, and acquired Bartolo Colon, a proven ace and a workhorse, for the stretch run. The Expos missed the playoffs that year by 12.5 games. And to get Bartolo Colon? Well, the Exponationals gave up a few prospects named Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee. And today, the Nationals are not one of the 19 teams with a shot at the playoffs. And they haven’t been a team with a shot at the playoffs since then. Instead, they’re the ones who are looking to target the teams who ask themselves the question, “Do we have a shot?” And Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM will be trying to convince everyone from the Chicago White Sox to the Chicago Cubs that, yes, they have a chance. This is why I love late July. Lots of thinking. Lots of overthinking. And everyone’s baseball future hangs in the balance. For years to come.

You would think that that was it for this post, but I’m not going absent for one month and returning with just one paragraph of narrative. It’s prediction time. Doing this before the trade deadline might seem counterproductive to the idea of being correct. I have no idea where Roy Oswalt, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Edwin Jackson, Ty Wigginton, Brett Myers, Lance Berkman, etc. are going in the next 5 days. But I don’t want to be the guy or gal who hops on a team’s bandwagon after a big trade (ahem…LA Angels). So I’ll try and be a step ahead of the curve.

I’ll list the divisions in terms of how I think they’ll finish up. And then some breakdown:

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Breakdown: This looks a lot like the standings today, because it is. The Yankees and Rays are the class of this group, but to me, the Yankees are a hair better than Tampa. The Rays pitching has been very good (with the exception of James Shields who would not be one of their 3 playoff starters). David Price has been Cy Young quality. Wade Davis has been a pleasant surprise. And Jeff Niemann and Matt Garza have been as good as advertised. I’m not quite sure I understand why they would trade the farm for Zack Greinke. Pitching is not their issue. Their inability to get on base consistently is their problem. Of the Rays players with at least 300 ABs this year (there are 6), half of them are getting on-base below a 33% clip. In addition, 3 of those guys have sub-.400 SLG. %. The Yankees also have 6 players with at least 300 ABs. All of them have an .OBP of .330 or higher (Derek Jeter has the lowest at .340.) Jeter is also the only one of the six with a Slugging % below .400. Jeter’s is .396. You see my point. They guys who are playing most for the Yankees are performing better offensively than the Rays. By a lot. As for the Red Sox, because they deserve mention, I would be shocked if they make the playoffs. In fact, I don’t think they should acquire anyone of consequence at the trade deadline. The Sox’s system is stacked. They don’t need to unstack for what is ultimately a futile cause. Too many injuries this year. They’ll be back in 2011.

AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

Breakdown: The Whtie Sox surge is just that I think. The Twins were my pick at the start of the year and will remain as such because I really think they’re the most balanced team. Justin Morneau was arguably the AL MVP when he went down with a concussion in early July. They’ve more than stayed afloat in his absence. They’re a game back today. When he returns, he bolsters a lineup that can just do more than Chicago’s (all power) and Detroit’s (all Miggy). The Tigers have been hit hard by injury recently and frankly, I don’t know that they have enough in their rotation to get them to the playoffs, especially with Verlander having a slightly off year. Minnesota has pitching. Scott Baker has been wildly inconsistent this year and is certainly the wild card for the Twins. If he can right his own ship, Minnesota wins this division fairly easily.

AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. LA Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

Breakdown: LA can steal Dan Haren from Arizona all they want. They cannot compete with Texas. The Rangers success hinges entirely on their pitching. You might not like the names “Tommy Hunter,” “Scott Feldman,” “CJ Wilson,” and “Colby Lewis,” but you cannot argue that they’ve all performed quite well this year. And their rotation is anchored by the best pitcher in baseball. Bar none. Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball. Keep saying it. Let the stigma of “Cliff Lee” wash over you. Remind yourself about his early career struggles. Do you feel good? Now look at what Cliff Lee has done since the start of the 2008 season. In 3 full seasons, he’s walked only 80 batters, with an ERA around 2.75. Heck, look at the sabremetric stats that I don’t even understand. Even those are good. His ERA+ is 162 this season. That’s a big number. Okay, Cliff Lee tangent aside, even if the Rangers pitching takes a slight step back, is there a better lineup in baseball? Chris Davis is their number 9 hitter! And they have a dominant closer and very solid bullpen. If the Texas Rangers don’t scare you, you’re missing the mark.