If I told you that I have nothing to live for, I’d probably be a tad overdramatic (just a tad though). When I heard the news last night (that was confirmed this morning) that Nationals LF Josh Willingham would be sitting out the remainder of the season due to knee surgery, the baseball portion of me felt a little empty. Josh Willingham is by no means an elite offensive player. He is not particularly “toolsy.” He’s a patient hitter, with a little bit of pop in his bat, and average defensive numbers. He is beyond all else, wildly consistent. Take a look at his basic career statistics (in seasons with 400+ PA):
2006-.277/.356/.496, 26 HR, 74 RBI
2007-.265/.364/.463, 21 HR, 89 RBI
2008-.254/.364/.470, 15 HR, 51 RBI
2009-.260/.367/.496, 24 HR, 61 RBI
2010-.268/.389/.459, 16 HR, 56 RBI
Willingham, if he could stay fully healthy, could easily be a .270/.390/.500 hitter with 30 HR and 90 RBI. And that’s not bad. At all. In fact, it’s quite good. Willingham has been a vital cog in the Nats wheel this year. His season ends with a VORP of 27.3, a very respectable number from your third best hitter, which is what Willingham is. But he’s more than that. He’s a stable bat. He doesn’t strike out a ton. He walks as often as anyone in the National League (currently 3rd). He gets on base. And he doesn’t take away a ton defensively. AND, he only makes $4.5 million per year. In short, he’s the kind of baseball player that every team needs. He knows his role and succeeds.
Without Willingham, the offense takes a big hit. Now Adam Dunn goes from having protection behind him to having Michael Morse behind him. That’s a big difference. Now, Willie Harris (a VORP of -8.4 and VORPs aside, one of the most useless players in baseball) becomes an everyday player until Nyjer Morgan (-0.5 VORP) returns from injury. The injury to Willingham makes it that much harder to stick around and watch the Nats struggle against the Braves, Phillies, and Cardinals. As recently as three weeks ago, the Nationals were 11.5 games out of first and I was trying to convince myself that they were still a playoff contender. I’ve woken up now. It’s become a season of silver linings.
And with that, I’m challenging myself to come up with 5 reasons to stick with the Nationals this year, in no particular order:
1.) Jordan Zimmermann- JZimm is the only pitcher I’m really excited about seeing as we go forward. I really believe that the Nationals would be wise to shelf Stephen Strasburg for the remainder of the season. Nothing to gain by having him continue to pitch and expose himself further to both injuries and advanced scouting. I’ve seen Strasburg pitch enough that I feel like I know how to beat him. For the Nationals, with defeat comes success next June. If this season ended today, Washington would have the 8th pick in next June’s draft. Realistically, they could “improve” that number (through losing) to a top-4 pick. Ultimately, that doesn’t necessarily make a whole world of a difference, except that it does keep fewer teams in play for the player(s) you want.
As for Zimmermann, he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery after a very good rookie season ended with an elbow injury last year. Zimmermann has thrown 34.2 innings in the minors this year, with a 1.82 ERA, 5.20 K/BB ratio, 6.00+SO/9, and a 6.8 H/9 average. In half of his starts last year, he pitched 6+ innings. His ERA was close to 5, but in his final 8 starts of his shortened 2009 season, he allowed 3+ earned runs only twice (3 and 4). His K/BB ratio of 3.00 in his final 8 games was also impressive. And he’s only 24. I’m excited to see JZimm get some major league reps (well ahead of schedule) because next season, he’s the Nats number two starter. And part of a formative 1-2 with Stephen Strasburg.
2.) Wilson Ramos- Ramos was acquired (nay, stolen) in the Matt Capps trade with the Minnesota Twins. Ramos is regarded, by most, as a top 5 catching prospect in the game. The Nationals two current catchers (Ivan Rodriguez and Wil Nieves) have been dreadfully inept for most of the season. They’ve hit a combined 4 HR and 47 RBI. Both are getting on-base at a clip below 30% of the time. They have been abject failures. For all of the talk around here about how great Pudge has been, I’m not sure anyone actually knows how to look at numbers. He has not been good here. He’s currently blocking the Wilson Ramos from playing every day. You have nothing to lose by calling Ramos up full-time. He was brought up today while Wil Nieves is on leave (pregnant wife). Perhaps the Nats should ask Nieves to stay at home and move Pudge to the backup role that he so clearly deserves.
3.) Jim Riggleman- If Jim Riggleman continues to not succeed, shouldn’t he be fired? I remind you that Bobby Valentine is still available. And I continue to remind you. It’ll be interesting to watch Riggleman manage the rest of this season because I truly think if Mike Rizzo and Stan Kasten know what they’re doing, they’ll consider replacing him heading in to what could be a promising 2011 campaign.
4.) Rob Dibble- The man proves a little more every game that he knows nothing about baseball. Just because you were a relief pitcher in the late 80’s and early 90’s does not mean that you’re going to be 1.) Intelligent, 2.) Well-spoken, or 3.) Good. Rob Dibble proves that. So he find himself on this list for sheer entertainment purposes. If you find getting angry and yelling at your picture box entertaining. Which I thankfully do.
5.) Ian Desmond- He’s hitting the ball very well over the last month, which is a great sign. His defense and throwing still leave a lot to be desired but he’s becoming a more dependable hitter. One of the few things that this organization has done well this year is sticking with Ian. They’ve let him fail (and fail miserably as he did during June and July) and they’ve watched him right the ship. He’s not necessarily playing for a position next year, but he’s not a sure thing. Ending the year on a solid note could do a lot for both his future and the future of this club.
At Sunday’s game, Amanda asked me who I would have playing everyday on this club from here on out. I’ve given it some thought and here’s what I’ve got for a lineup (this is for when Nyjer Morgan returns at the end of this week):
SS Ian Desmond
LF Roger Bernadina
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Adam Dunn
RF Michael Morse
C Wilson Ramos
CF Nyjer Morgan
2B Danny Espinosa
Pitcher
Pitching Rotation
Livan Hernandez
Jordan Zimermann
Scott Olsen
Yunesky Maya (who I have zero expectations for, but I mean, why not, right?)
John Lannan
Tell me that rotation won’t strike the fear of God in the hearts of NL East lineups. Actually, please don’t tell me that.