It’s rare that I find myself more excited for an NFL season than a college season, but I think that’s where I’m at heading into the fall. I don’t have it in me, necessarily to break down each conference extensively. Some conferences (Big XII, ACC, Big East, Big 10…oh wait, that’s almost all of them right?) don’t deserve a full breakdown. And so with that, here are my conference title contenders heading into the 2010 season. Apologies to Indiana, Washington State, South Florida, and Kansas.

ACC
(Coastal Division)
1. Virginia Tech- The Hokies are here every year because no one in this conference can recruit, rebuild, and win quite like Frank Beamer. If Frank could just win some bowl games (sub .500 all-time) he could truly start to build a legacy. VTech comes into 2010 with their best offense since the start of this century, with stability at QB (Tyrod Taylor) and two of the nation’s best running backs (Ryan Williams and Darren Evans). The questions for Virginia Tech are on the defensive side of the ball. Thankfully for them, they play in the ACC and not the Pac-10. Unfortunately for them, they play in the “A” division of the ACC and have two competitors for the crown.

2. Miami- The first competitor is the resurgent Miami Hurricanes. Miami’s early season schedule is brutal with games at Ohio State, at Pittsburgh, at Clemson, and finally home to Florida State. And they close out with back-to-back games against Georgia Tech (in Atlanta) and Virginia Tech. There is no more difficult schedule in the nation. So why Miami ahead of Georgia Tech and trendy North Carolina? Because I love Jacory Harris. I love their offensive line. I love their defensive swagger. And because of that, I think they get through that schedule with just a few blemishes.

3. Georgia Tech- The second competitor for this division crown would be the 2010 conference champion. The Yellow Jackets return starting quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who I’ve seen in some publications as a Heisman sleeper. I can’t think of a good enough joke here, beyond the notion of Josh Nesbitt being a Heisman sleeper. Defensively, the Jackets are stout, but I don’t have faith in their offense, especially with the loss of Jonathan Dwyer at running back. Linebackers will key in on Nesbitt and force him to throw the ball, which is exactly what Tech coach Paul Johnson doesn’t want. The Techs (Virginia and Georgia) will fight it out in Blacksburg, VA on Thursday November 4. Don’t expect the picture to be clear until after Miami plays Virginia Tech on November 20th in South Florida.

(Atlantic Division..or “Do I have to pick someone?)
1. Florida State- I don’t have a lot of faith in Christian Ponder and the Seminoles, nor do I have much faith in Clemson, Boston College, North Carolina State, Maryland, or Wake Forest.

Conference Championship: Virginia Tech over Florida State
Player With The Most to Prove: Jacory Harris. Needs to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. He needs to cut down on the INTs certainly. If he can, it might be Miami in the ACC Title game beating Florida State. And it might even be Miami playing for the national championship. It all falls on Jacory’s shoulders. He succeeds and I can truly see Miami playing in Glendale in January. If he throws 17 INTs again, I can see Miami playing in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Big (L)East
1. Pittsburgh- Dion Lewis might rush for 2000 yards this season. I expect Pitt to run the table in the Big East. There is no one, not even the UNH Wildcats, who can stop Dion Lewis. I’m not concerned about their quarterback issues. Lewis is going to run over, around, and through the entire Big East. And Pitt’s very good defense (19th in the nation last year) will be just as stout. Their biggest conference challenge will be not taking their inferior opponents lightly. If Pitt does slip up, I’ll take Rutgers as the beneficiary. But it won’t happen.

Player With The Most to Prove: Noel Devine (RB/WVU). Dion Lewis has nothing to prove as far as I’m concerned (can you tell I like him?). Devine needs to be a workhorse to give West Virginia any shot at respectability and Bill Stewart any shot at retaining his job. I don’t see it from Devine. Without a passing game (apologies to Geno Smith), West Virginia will struggle to put points on the board. I see a 6-6 or 7-5 season for a team that should finish no worse than 9-3 with their schedule.

Big Ten
1. Ohio State- I have a truly difficult time jumping to the conclusion that because he played one good “big game” (the Rose Bowl) last year, Terrelle Pryor is ready to become a leader. Part of the issue with Ohio State is Jim Tressel’s unwillingness to let Pryor be an athlete. Tressel is a great football coach, but perhaps a little to clingy to the notions of football past. Terrelle Pryor should be running the ball twenty times a game. He is not a good enough passer to stand under center and take 5 step drops. A bit of the pressure on Pryor will be alleviated this year by the presence of a good run game, led by Brandon Saine, Boom Herron, and sophomore Jordan Hall, who quietly averaged over 5 yards a carry last season (and is Pryor’s old high school teammate). And Ohio State returns DeVeir Posey at Wideout, who caught 60 balls last year, 8 for TDs. The Buckeyes are, as always, loaded with 5 star recruits past and present on both sides of the ball. There’s no reason to think that they won’t win another Big 10 title.

2. Iowa- The gap between 1 and 2 here is much bigger than the gap between 2 and 3. Ohio State is a step way ahead of both Iowa and Wisconsin athletically. I put Iowa here at 2 ahead of the Badgers, because they return an experienced quarterback (Ricky Stanzi) and have an easier path to an undefeated Big 10 season. Iowa plays zero tough road games in conference (Michigan, Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota). That means Penn State (who will not be good this year), Ohio State, and Wisconsin all come to Iowa City. Big advantage for the Hawkeyes.

3. Wisconsin- See Iowa. Wisconsin has murderer’s row in October with back to back games against the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes, followed by a trip to Purdue. And I just don’t think there’s enough offense in Madison to compete with Ohio State.

Player With The Most to Prove: Terrelle Pryor. Isn’t it always? When you come in with the self-created hype that Pryor did as a freshman and fail to make good on that hype in two years, you will always have the biggest microscope placed over you. I’m very torn on Pryor. I want him to succeed at the same time that I want him to fail. He has all the tools to be Vince Young Version 2.0. But to this point, he’s been nothing close to that. Part of me wants to make him a Heisman contender. But really, I’ll just wait until it happens and give him his credit then. He deserves no more.

Big XII
South
1. Oklahoma- Landry Jones. That mustache. Kidding aside, the race for Big XII supremacy comes down to which quarterback can do the most to help his team and I think that’s Landry Jones. He has weapons to work with. Ryan Broyles and Brandon Caleb on the outside and DeMarco Murray in the backfield. As it always does with these teams, it’ll come down to the first Saturday in October at high noon in Dallas, TX. I like Oklahoma to win that game and the Big XII South

2. Texas- Garrett Gilbert. Perhaps he needs to grow a mustache? Gilbert was awful in the first half against Alabama last year, but started to get his bearings about him in the second half and performed fairly well against Alabama’s elite defense. However, Landry Jones comes in with more experience. Gilbert’s run game is better than Jones’ but this is the Big XII folks, where passing is key. I see Gilbert making a mistake or two too many in his first year as a full-time starter. Down the road, he has all the tools to be just as good as Colt McCoy was, just not yet. That said, Texas will still finish the regular season no worse than 10-2.

3. Texas A&M- They’re not winning this thing, but I wanted to give mention to a team that is certainly on the rise, led by quarterback Jerrod Johnson. A&M will play Texas and Oklahoma tightly. And if you like fun, be sure to tune in to their game against Arkansas on October 9th. First one to 50 wins. A&M finishes the season 9-3.

North
1. Nebraska- There is no one else who can compete with the Huskers in the dreadful North. Nebraska will finish the regular season as the cheapest 10-2 football team ever because they play a cupcake schedule. Their defense is elite, led by senior (and future NFL star) Prince Amukamara at Corner. Their offense, however, will take a step back in the absence of Sam Keller and that’s truly saying more about replacement starter Zac Lee than anything about Keller. Don’t expect much from the team that finished 77th in the nation in scoring offense and 101st in passing last year. Side note: Maybe I can see Missouri sneaking up on them, but the Tigers have no defense to speak of. If Missouri and Nebraska joined forces, they’d win the Big XII. Until then, they’ll lose to the Big XII South winner.

Conference Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska
Player With The Most to Prove: Garrett Gilbert. The spotlight will be bright on Gilbert, as he follows in the footsteps of Vince Young and Colt McCoy. He has an easy early schedule to work with before the Oklahoma game. If he plays well during Texas’ first four games, we could see a whole different quarterback in Dallas from the one who played in Pasadena last year.

Pac-10 (also known as the most wide open conference in all of football, in recent memory)
With the Pac-10, I’m going to just list my predicted order of finish and then break it all down because almost anyone can win this conference.

1. Stanford
2. Oregon
3. Washington
4. Oregon State
5. Arizona
6. USC
7. UCLA
8. California
9. Arizona State
10. Washington State

The line of demarcation according to who can win this conference lies above USC (who is postseason ineligible in 2010). I may end up getting this whole thing completely wrong and Arizona might win the Pac-10. But for my money, I love Stanford in 2010. The schedule is challenging (at Oregon, in what will be an epic night game on October 2 and at Washington). But they have the nation’s best pure quarterback in sophomore Andrew Luck (Ryan Mallet is not a pure quarterback). Stanford struggled mightily on defense last year, so I’m resting a lot on the idea that a year of experience will help out. And they lost Heisman Trophy runner up RB Toby Gerhart. So call it a hunch or call it me betting on a team with the odds stacked against them, but I have faith that Jim Harbaugh has built something great in Palo Alto.

Oregon is the trendier pick because they return a star running back and a semi-experienced quarterback, but I sense a hangover in Eugene this year. I have a feeling that the Jeremiah Masoli controversy and the LeGarrette Blount situation are a dark cloud hanging over the Ducks. Certainly not dark enough to keep them from being a 9-3 football team, but dark enough to keep them from being the 11-1 or even 12-0 team that they likely could be.

Player With The Most to Prove: Matt Barkley (QB/USC). In a meaningless year, with a new coach, I’m very interested to see what this highly touted quarterback can really do. USC will be a very interesting team to watch, even if they technically don’t exist in 2010.

SEC
East
1. Florida- Even with Tim Tebow gone, Florida will not take a significant step back in a very weak division. John Brantley is a seemingly capable signal caller and he is surrounded by athletes at every skill position. He will not be asked to carry the load on his own. As for the rest of this division, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee will all be very bad this year (sub-.500 at least). That leaves Florida with games against South Carolina and Georgia. Georgia starts a redshirt freshman in Aaron Murray and South Carolina is the same team they’ve been in the past two years, i.e. not very good. Florida should run the table in their division and coast to the SEC title game in Atlanta. Oh, and if there weren’t enough big games on Saturday October 2nd, Florida has a little tilt in Tuscaloosa with the Alabama Crimson Tide.

West
1. Alabama- I’ve heard the talk about the 13 defensive players gone. And do you know what it is? All talk. Talk to try to fill up months of down time and spring games and workouts. Nick Saban is, if nothing else, the best defensive minded coach in college football. He’s got a cupboard that is stocked with elite prospects and he’ll find a way to get the most out of raw talent. On offense, find me a tandem better than Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram. You’ll be looking for quite a while. And on the outside, Julio Jones is still there. And Greg McElroy is still under center. And say what you want about him, but he wins football games.

2. LSU- I’ve been waiting for Jordan Jefferson to have his breakout season for quite some time and I think this is finally going to be it. Les Miles’ job may be on the line at LSU. And if I’ve learned anything in life, it’s to never count out a crazy person when their back is against the wall.

3. Arkansas- Arkansas will score close to 40 points per game and hope that their atrocious defense can hold teams to under 40 points. That won’t happen a lot, but enough to get them 3rd place in the wide-open West.

4. Auburn- A trendy pick (Kirk Herbstreit has them winning the SEC West). I remind you that they finished 3-5 in the SEC last year and are starting Cam Newton at QB, a former highly touted Florida recruit (Tim Tebow’s heir apparent) who has never taken a substantial snap in his college career. I look at Auburn as the slightly poorer man’s version of Arkansas. The defense at Auburn is better, but the offense is certainly not, unless Newton can improve on what has been an up-and-down spring and summer campaign.

5. Mississippi- The wild card. If Jeremiah Masoli has his head on straight and the Right Reverend lets him loose , they could be dangerous. They won’t be, however.

6. Mississippi State- They’re getting there. They’re not there yet.

SEC Championship: Florida over Alabama
Player With The Most to Prove: Mark Ingram. Has a returning Heisman Trophy winner ever had this much to prove? Everyone is talking about his teammate Trent Richardson and no one is talking about Ingram. We’ll see what kind of football player he is this year. If he comes out with a fire under his behind, we’ll know he’s got heart. Frankly, he should come out ready to prove everyone wrong. I’m sure Nick Saban would appreciate that.

The Others

In previous years, you could just end a thing like this because no one from a Big 6 is going to make the national championship, right? Well, this year, that might not be the case. For what it’s worth, I think Boise State loses to Virginia Tech on Labor Day night, thus ending their shot at a title. I haven’t forgotten about what happened the last time Boise went on the road and began the year against an elite team. If you have forgotten, they went Between the Hedges back in 2005 and got beat down by Georgia. Embarrassed. 35 point blowout. In a lot of ways, that game has slowed the National Championship prospects for not only Boise, but Utah, and TCU. Boise looked overmatched against DJ Shockley and the Dawgs. Even against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, Boise had to pull out the statues of liberties and the hook and ladders to beat the Sooners in a game that meant nothing to Oklahoma. A lot has changed since then. Boise has an elite quarterback in Kellen Moore and perhaps the best Wide Receiver tandem in the country (Titus Young and Austin Pettis). But Boise’s defense is not elite and Virginia Tech can run the football and they will run the football. Right at Boise’s overmatched linebackers. I’ll be rooting hard for the Broncos, but I don’t think it’ll be fruitful rooting.

TCU, on the other hand, I think will run the table to a 12-0 regular season. The only potential hiccups on their schedule are games against Oregon State (at Cowboys Stadium) on opening day and in Salt Lake City against Utah at the end of November. TCU has the defense that Boise does not (6th in the nation last year). And their offense if much better than people give them credit for (5th in the nation last year).

The only other team that I can see going undefeated from a non-Automatic Qualifying conference is Navy, but even if the Naval Academy does go 12-0 (I think 11-1 is more likely with games against Notre Dame and at East Carolina, but an undefeated season is not outside of the realm of sensible thinking if you look at their schedule) I cannot see them cracking the top 2. But a 12-0 Navy team does make for an interesting BCS conversation doesn’t it?

Sorting This Mess Out

The October 2nd Florida/Alabama game is very important here. Everything starts with that game. I think the home advantage is important for the Tide and they win the early October game, but I see that as Florida’s only blemish heading in to the SEC title game with an undefeated Alabama team. I think Florida wins a close SEC Championship game, setting up the very difficult scenario where you have 1-loss Florida, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Boise State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh and Alabama teams, along with an undefeated TCU team. I really think that this is the year where all hell breaks loose in the BCS. For real. If you think you’ve seen all hell break loose with the BCS before this season, you’re wrong. (And can you imagine if Navy really does run the table?)

So how in the worst do we sort this all out? Well, let’s start with the basics. The six automatic qualifiers:

ACC: Virginia Tech (12-1)
Big East: Pittsburgh (11-1)
Big XII: Oklahoma (12-1)
Big Ten: Ohio State (11-1)
Pac-10: Stanford (10-2)
SEC: Florida (12-1)

Alabama (12-1) and TCU (12-0) are easy at-large choices which leaves us with teams like Boise State (1 loss), Texas (10-2), Miami (10-2), Nebraska (10-2), and Iowa (10-2) to fill out the remaining two spots. Boise’s early season loss to Virginia Tech helps them here because they shouldn’t fall too hard with that loss. I count Boise State and Texas in. So that gives us these 4 at-large teams:

Alabama (12-1)
TCU (12-0)
Boise State (11-1)
Texas (10-2)

Now we have to determine the national title game contenders. I think that includes Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Ohio State. Florida is a shoe-in because of their early season loss and recent victory over Alabama. So who do I think ends up with Florida? I think it’s Alabama, actually. The BCS has gotten it wrong so often, why not assume that they’ll get this one right and give us the rubber match between two heavyweights? So here’s how I have the BCS games shaking out:

Rose Bowl: Ohio State over Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma over Boise State (retribution?)
Sugar Bowl: Texas over Pittsburgh
Orange Bowl: TCU over Virginia Tech
BCS National Championship: Florida vs. Alabama (I’m not deciding. Just crossing my fingers that this all comes true.)

Top 5 Heisman Trophy Hopefuls
Dion Lewis (RB/Pittsburgh)
Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)
Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)
Tyrod Taylor (QB/Virginia Tech)
Andy Dalton (QB/TCU)

Finally, make a point to clear your schedules for Saturday October 2. Spend the morning with a loved one and then ditch them by 10 in time for ESPN’s College GameDay. At 1 Eastern, Texas and Oklahoma battle in the Red River Rivalry. At a TBD time (probably 4 p.m.) Florida plays at Alabama. And if you haven’t had enough, Stanford travels to Eugene to play Oregon at 11:15 eastern that night.

You know what? I’m excited for college football now.