Sadly, no commentary from me on the state of Brett Favre’s cell phone camera. Before I take inventory of the NFL through a power rankings type list, let’s take a quick look at the Major League Baseball playoffs. Not to toot my own horn (I’M AWESOME!!!!) but I’ve hit each series nearly dead on so far, as we head into Game 5 between Texas and Tampa Bay tonight at the Trop. I expect the Rangers to win this game thanks to another masterful playoff performance by Cliff Lee. David Price did not look good in Game 1. His pitch selection was awful (he threw 21 consecutive fastballs to start the game) and he got hit hard by everyone in Texas’ lineup. If I’m Texas, I’m nervous about this becoming a bullpen game because Neftali Feliz probably shouldn’t pitch in this game, considering how bad he’s looked in his first playoff go-round. My prediction: 5-1 win for Texas. Lee pitches 8 innings, striking out 8 and walking none. Someone (Darren O’Day perhaps) closes out the ninth for the Rangers, who move on to a seven game series with the Yankees, that likely won’t go seven games.
We’re heading into a separation Sunday sort of day for the NFL. A handful of teams will have their season made or broken this week. Here are the five most important matchups:
Baltimore @ New England- A huge test for both teams. New England needs to show some defensive growth. Baltimore needs to shred the Patriots’ young D.
Dallas @ Minnesota- The loser is done for the 2010 season, as they will fall to 1-4.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta- Are the Falcons for real? Can Kevin Kolb keep the Eagles afloat? And how awesome would it have been to have had Michael Vick starting this game?
Miami @ Green Bay- The Dolphins need a win against a good team to prove their worth. And Green Bay needs to show some life.
Indianapolis @ Washington- The Redskins can create a believer or two with a win over the Colts in front of a national audience.
I’ve never been a big fan of the power rankings you see published by national media outlets, where all 32 teams are measured against each other. So here are our divisional power rankings, after 5 weeks of the NFL season:
AFC East
1. New York Jets
2. New England Patriots
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
– The Jets have beaten the Patriots and the Dolphins, which lands them the top spot. For most people’s money, their biggest weakness is Quarterback. Mark Sanchez has a passer rtg. of 91.7 (higher than Aaron Rodgers) and is the only starting QB in the NFL without an interception thrown. He might not look like an elite quarterback all the time, but Sanchez is effective enough. As for the Patriots and Dolphins, I think they’re very close, but I give the Patriots the advantage because they beat Miami on the road. Buffalo will have the first pick in the draft and might go 0-16. Their only shot at a win comes in mid-November when Detroit comes to Buffalo.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals
– Yes, Cincinnati beat Baltimore in Week 2, but that looks like the high point for the 2010 Bengals. Meanwhile, the Ravens have gotten better each week and have to be feeling great after Ray Rice had his best game of 2010. The Ravens are like the Jets, in that their perceived weakness is at the QB position. Joe Flacco though, unlike Mark Sanchez, has been awful thus far, which keeps the Ravens behind the Steelers. And while Baltimore beat Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in Week 4, the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger, who comes back this week. The Steelers defense has been outstanding so far and I don’t see that stopping. I like Cleveland more than Cincinnati because the Bengals look like a team that is on the verge of quitting on their coach, while the Browns fight hard every week.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
-I know that the Colts have already lost to both Houston and Jacksonville, but I would remind you that they’re still tied for first in this underratedly bad division. And who do you want quarterbacking your average team? Peyton Manning or David Garrard? I rest my case.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Denver Broncos
4. Oakland Raiders
– Call me a non-believer in the Chiefs. Matt Cassel is not the quarterback of the future or the present for this team. His unsteady leadership is what is holding back Jamaal Charles from breaking out. Dexter McCluster should be touching the ball 20 times a game, but isn’t. And Dwayne Bowe has been more than awful at receiver. And it all goes back to Cassel’s play. The Chiefs don’t have a consistent enough passing game and that’s hurting everything else on offense. The Chargers, meanwhile, can score on anyone, but can’t stop anyone. Denver runs the ball like an Arena League team. And Oakland is hinging all of its hopes on Bruce Gradkowski staying healthy. This division is the NFL’s version of Jersey Shore. It’s painful to look at, but it sure is fun. For some people. Not me. I like real football. I’ll tip my cap towards the Chargers because they do what they do well the best of anyone here.
NFC East
1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys
-Michael Vick’s health would push the Eagles to my number one spot, but in his absence, we’re going with the Giants and their improved defense and improving running game. Eli Manning, though, needs to be a lot more careful with the football. The Eagles just need Kevin Kolb to manage games until Vick returns. The defense isn’t good, but it’s good enough in the East. Washington is an enigma to me and not worth talking about. And Dallas just isn’t worth talking about.
NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Chicago Bears
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Detroit Lions
-The Vikings are either going to be a hot rod that will race to the top of this division or the wheels will fall off. I don’t know why, but I’m leaning towards them coming from behind to win the race. They’ve only played one division game and they won it. They can do some damage. Chicago is playing well, but Mike Martz’s genius offense isn’t so smart in Chicago in November and December. They will collapse. And I don’t know what’s wrong with Green Bay, other than them clearly buying into the hype. Much like the Saints. Speaking of which….
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Carolina Panthers
– The Falcons showed that they can beat New Orleans in Week 3. And I know they’re better than Tampa Bay. They should be able to win this division rather easily. They’re good everywhere, but not great. They’re solid, not sexy. I don’t see a Super Bowl run in them, but they’re a functional playoff team. You may be shocked by Tampa over New Orleans, but you’ll see this Sunday when these two teams play in Tampa that the Bucs are for real. Josh Freeman has progressed hugely in his second season and the young defense has done a good job so far in 2010. I know that Pittsburgh manhandled them in Week 3. But Pittsburgh is a lot better than every team in the South, including the Saints. I wasn’t high on New Orleans coming into the season and I’m still not sold on them. Drew Brees has been nothing short of mediocre thus far. The injury to Reggie Bush has hurt an already weak running game. And Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have regressed this season. The offense is nowhere near as good as it was in 2010. And the defense was never that good to begin with. (See: Giving up 30 points to Max Hall and the Arizona Cardinals. And they should have lost to San Francisco too.)
NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. San Francisco 49ers
-Here we have the worst team winning a division and the best team finishing in last. This describes the NFC very well. While Dallas, Minnesota, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay are all struggling to stay relevant, the St. Louis Rams (led by a rookie quarterback), the Arizona Cardinals (led by an undrafted rookie quarterback), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (led by a second year quarterback) are all playing above their heads. I like the energy in St. Louis. They’re by no means a good football team, but neither are the Cardinals, Seahawks, or Niners. Sam Bradford has shown flashes of greatness. As for Arizona, I have a very hard time buying into Max Hall as an NFL QB. And I still think Seattle is awful, but if their defense can continue playing well, led by NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Earl Thomas, I might have to eat my crow. And for those who think San Francisco is still going to win this division, you clearly haven’t watched this team play.
At the start of the year, I predicted Green Bay and Baltimore would play in the Super Bowl. I’m changing my mind on both teams. Baltimore hasn’t gotten the QB play it needs and Ray Rice has been inconsistent. I like the Jets to win the AFC. I think Mark Sanchez can manage a game well enough to let the defense win almost every week. In the NFC, I cannot see Green Bay putting it together without any running game. Aaron Rodgers needs something. I’m not too concerned with his absence for a week or two with a concussion nearly as much as I am with the fact that when he returns, the team will likely be .500 and facing a Minnesota team that won’t have to plan for the run. In the NFC, you can a feather into a hurricane and see where it lands. For right now, I like the Giants or Eagles. I’ll be cute and take the Giants so that we have an all-New York Super Bowl, played in Dallas.
Early Season Awards:
NFL MVP: Michael Vick. The Eagles with Vick looked like an unstoppable force. If he returns soon and stays healthy, he’ll win this award. Peyton Manning also deserves so pub, except his team is 3-2 and 0-2 in the division. I’d put Phillip Rivers third on this list for now, with Tom Brady a distant 4th.
NFL Def. POY: Troy Polamalu. Not even close.
NFL Off. ROY: Jahvid Best. He gets the nod over Sam Bradford.
NFL Def. ROY: Earl Thomas. Game changing safety. Much better than I thought he’d be.
NFL Coach of the Year: Raheem Morris. Has turned Tampa from a joke to a tough, young football team. They’re the NFL’s Oklahoma City Thunder from two years ago.