Last week, in my ALCS preview, I mentioned that I think Cliff Lee might be a
better pitcher than Randy Johnson and the best since Sandy Koufax. Before
we get into that discussion though, let’s take a look back at how Cliff Lee
got here.
Lee was a 4th round draft pick by the Montreal Expos in 2000 out of the
University of Arkansas. He was traded by the Expos (along with Brandon
Phillips and Grady Sizemore) in what may be the worst trade in the history
of professional sports to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon in 2002.
In his debut for the Indians that year, he threw 5.1 innings, striking out 4
and walking four. It would be the beginning of what looked like would be a
mediocre, back of the rotation career.
From his debut until the end of the 2007 season, Lee was nothing if not
average. His W-L record was good, but his numbers weren’t spectacular. He
showed signs of brilliance during his 2004 season, when he finished fourth
in AL Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA. But he walked 52
batters that season, for a pedestrian 2.75 K/BB ratio.
Lee would go on to drop off from there, landing himself back in the minors
in 2007 after a disastrous stretch that had him fighting with teammates and
provoking Indians fans who were unhappy with his performance. He finished
2007 with the following statistical line:
5-8, 6.29 ERA, 72 ERA+, 1.6 HR/9, 1.83 K/BB ratio, etc, etc.
He was a disaster. He had become a progressively worse pitcher over time
and was a 28 year old minor leaguer in 2007. Then something happened.
In 2008, Lee won the Cy Young award, easily. Compare the above line in 2007
to this one:
22-3, 2.54 ERA, 168 ERA+, 0.5 HR/9, 5.00 K/BB ratio, etc. etc.
Since then, Cliff Lee has been the best pitcher in baseball. This year, he
struck out 185 batters and walked 18 (10.28 K/BB ratio), for example.
As good as Lee has been over the past 3 seasons, he has been that much
better in the postseason. His combined numbers:
6-0, 1.44 ERA, 6 BB, 54 K, 1 HR allowed in having faced 211 batters.
So here we are. Lee has only been an elite pitcher for 3 years, and at the
age of 32, probably doesn’t have 10 more years of pitching in him. So it’s
hard to compare against the careers of guys like Randy Johnson and Steve
Carlton. Looking at the numbers that Johnson put up from 1999-2002 alone, I realize
that I’m an idiot for even thinking about comparing Johnson to Lee. They’re
not even close. Johnson was at the top of his career during that stretch,
won 17 games or more each year, never had an ERA above 2.64, and struck out
at least 334 batters in each of those four seasons. If a 10+ strikeout game
is considered an elite benchmark for a pitcher, consider if you would that
Johnson struck out 10+ batters 23 times in 2001 alone.
The comparison becomes slightly more fair when we look at postseason
pitching performances. Johnson, in his postseason career:
7-9, 3.50 ERA, 32 BB, 132 K, 15 HR allowed in having faced 493 batters.
Lee has him beat across the board, except for strikeouts, which were
Johnson’s specialty. And even then, Lee is only averaging one fewer
strikeout over 9 innings in his postseason career than Johnson did.
So perhaps I should have qualified my statement as being postseason
relative. For that, let’s look at another great lefty pitcher of this era,
Steve Carlton, and his postseason success:
6-6, 3.26 ERA, 51 BB, 84 K, 7 HR allowed in having faced 429 batter.
Again, more experience than Lee, but Lee’s numbers are better across the
board.
Now, Sandy Koufax, widely regarded as the best left-handed, postseason
pitcher of this era. His career playoff numbers:
4-3, 0.95 ERA, 11 BB, 61 K, 2 HR allowed in having faced 213 batters.
Lee: 56.1 IP, 6-0, 1.44 ERA, 6 BB, 54 K, 1 HR allowed in having faced 211
batters.
Koufax: 57.0 IP, 4-3, 0.95 ERA, 11 BB, 61 K, 2 HR allowed in having faced
213 batters.
Remarkably similar, no?
So, what’s the point? Well, it’s pretty simple. While Cliff Lee hasn’t
quite built up the regular season resume to make it even worth comparing him
to the best left-handed pitchers of this era in baseball, he has
more than built up the postseason resume to do so. Ignore Koufax’s W-L
record (which, again, is meaningless, because he did everything he could to
help the Dodgers and got no run support (in his three postseason losses, he
was given a total of 1 run to work with.)). When you do, you have
nearly the same pitcher. The other great lefties of this era (Johnson and
Carlton, namely) don’t have the postseason resumes to belong in the
conversation with Lee and Koufax. They are the two best postseason
left-handed pitchers in the modern era of baseball.
Back to Lee, exclusively; There will always be a stigma with him. There
will always be those who don’t want to give him the credit he has proven
that he deserves. Much as people did with Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays
this season, people will continue to think back to 2007 Cliff Lee and refuse
to believe that he’s put that period of his career fully behind him.
They’ll wait and anticipate the collapse. But Cliff Lee of 2010 is not
Cliff Lee of 2007. He’s a smarter pitcher. He’s a more effective pitcher.
He’s a more mature pitcher.
Tonight, Cliff Lee will start his second postseason game at Yankee
Stadium. In his previous start, he threw a complete game, ten strikeout,
gem of a performance against the Yankees. It was the most dominant
postseason performance in my lifetime, and it was done on the biggest stage,
in the World Series, against the most successful franchise in sports
history, in their home park.
Tonight, if Lee pitches like that again, he will own sole claim as the
greatest left-handed pitcher in modern postseason history.
Mid-Atlantic Bias 