First, the teams. Before the season, seemingly every prognosticator had Alabama facing Ohio State in Glendale tonight. And it made sense. Alabama came into the season returning the bulk of their offense from last year’s National Championship team. And Ohio State was coming off of a 2 loss season that saw them dominate Oregon in the Rose Bowl and was returning the bulk of their offense and defense. So, in short (or long) I can’t criticize those predictions (for the record, I picked Alabama and Florida. Let’s move on).

Hiding in the weeds were the Oregon Ducks and the Auburn Tigers. Oregon began the season as the Pac-10 favorite and #11 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. I picked Oregon to finish behind Stanford in the Pac-10, writing that I thought the black cloud from last season (LaGarrette Blount’s punching incident and Jeremiah Masoli’s inability to stay out of trouble) would hamper the Ducks and lead them to a 9-3 season. Though I did write that they should be an 11-1 or 12-0 season. But the kind of 12-0 they were? I didn’t see that coming. I knew that Oregon’s offense wanted to go fast, but this year, with Darron Thomas at the helm, they went Mach 5 fast. And they made their opponents look bad in doing so. In their second game of the season, they went into Knoxville and found themselves tied 13-13 at the half. They won that game 48-13. Only one opponent stayed within single digits of the Ducks (Cal, in a game the Bears should have won, frankly.). Other than the Cal game, the fewest points Oregon scored in a game this season was 37. You know how good Stanford is? Oregon beat them by 21. The phrase “well-oiled machine” gets thrown around a lot. The Oregon Ducks are a Bentley. They’re a pre-Iceberg Titanic. They’re Eli Whitney’s cotton gin.

Way down at the bottom of the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll was the Auburn Tigers at #23. People knew the Oregon Ducks coming into 2010. Folks didn’t know the Tigers, really. There was some preseason hype. Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN picked them to win the SEC West. But most people thought they were a middle-of-the-pack SEC West team. Which isn’t bad frankly, with LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas up there. Auburn, however, was much better than a middle-of-the-pack team. They were the SEC’s best team, slaying their way through a murderer’s row conference schedule en route to a 12-0 regular season record. But it wasn’t always easy for Auburn. Unlike the Ducks, Auburn played a number of close games. That number is 6. 6 one-score games. Most of the credit for Auburn’s dream season, deservedly so, is given to their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, Cameron Newton. Newton was the most dynamic and dominant player in college since Reggie Bush, albeit playing a different position. No one stopped Newton this year. No one kept him in check for an entire game. He finished the season with 49 total TDs (including one receiving). He ran through, around, and then through, again, the best defenses in America, putting up staggering numbers. Like 217 rushing yards against LSU. Or 216 passing yards and 3 TDs against Alabama. No matter what he faced, Cam Newton had an answer. If you went in looking to stop the run, you got deep bombs to Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery. If you dropped 7 into coverage, you got a 6’6” quarterback knocking your linebackers over. He was truly a man amongst boys and is owed a lot of the credit for Auburn being here.

Beyond the “nobody expected us to be here” card and their explosive offenses these two teams, at least historically. have nothing in common. Auburn sits historically near the precipice of being a top-tier program, like the Nebraskas, Oklahomas, and Alabamas. Part of what has kept Auburn from that is the fact that they’ve only won one National Championship (1957). They’ve been close. Like in 2004 when they were denied (folks in the “loveliest village” will tell you robbed…they’re right) an opportunity, at 12-0, to play for a title. They also finished 1993 undefeated, but were on probation. In 1983, they entered the bowl season number 4 in the country, won their bowl game, saw each team ahead of them lose, and still somehow only ended the season 3rd in the polls. Auburn has always played second fiddle, even in their state, where they take a back seat to the University of Alabama in terms of success and prestige. Nothing would make the so-called (by Bama fans) “Barners” happier than to shut up their cross-state rivals and finally win what has eluded them for 54 years.

Oregon on the other hand, has never been here before. That’s really their history. They’ve never played in a championship game. Their program, twenty years ago, didn’t matter. It wasn’t until Nike mogul Phil Knight put an estimated $300 million into the program that Oregon started having football success. Even still, the school truly lacks a signature victory. A win tonight would be a Hancock-like signature victory, and perhaps cement the Ducks as the most dominant team in recent memory (at least since Miami at the start of the 2000s.).

But it won’t happen. I cannot lie that all of the numbers, and all of the media coverage, point to a Ducks win. And I’m biased. I want a Tiger victory. I want to see Cameron Newton shut people up. I want to see Oregon’s coach, Chip Kelly, shut up. I don’t want to hear any more about how quickly the Ducks operate and how great LaMichael James is. I don’t want to listen to another Chip Kelly halftime interview. I don’t want to see him in the postgame interview. I don’t care about the winged, multi-colored uniforms, and pewter helmets. I understand that people don’t want to hear or see Cameron Newton. I understand that people think he’s a cheater and a liar and want to watch him lose. People are sick of seeing him smile after games. I get that. I, however, will be rooting for the college kid whose father solicited money from another university in return for his son’s potential enrollment. I will be rooting for the most exciting college player I’ve seen since _________________ (fill in the blank). I love watching Cameron Newton play football. Because Cameron Newton clearly loves playing football.

Auburn beats Oregon with a huge game from LB Josh Bynes. Bynes will have to stay focused for 60 minutes. He will have to read Darron Thomas’ every hand off. He will have to be as fit as he’s ever been. Auburn needs him on the field, maybe even more than DT Nick Fairley. Against a team like the Ducks, the linebackers are more important than the defensive line. If you go in thinking that you’re going to stop LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner in the backfield, you’re wrong. But if you can stop them just after the line of scrimmage and put the Ducks in 3rd and Mediums, you can stop them. Darron Thomas is not a refined passer. He has weapons in the pass game, especially in Jeffrey Maehl. But the Ducks’ strength is truly in their running game and what they can do on first and second down. California did a great job of getting them into third downs and that’s how they nearly beat them. Oregon was 8-21 on third down in that game. Against USC? 11 of 17. Against Stanford? 6 of 12. The more 3rd downs the Ducks see, the better your chance of beating them.

Offensively, for Auburn, I have no doubt that they’ll score. They might fall behind the Ducks 21-0 in the first quarter. I won’t be concerned. The Tigers can score just as well as the Ducks can. And Oregon’s defense, which I’ve watched a handful of times this year, is not unbeatable, as some pundits would have you believe. They allowed 29 points or more in 4 games. Auburn allowed 29 points or more in 4 games as well. Auburn’s defense is not as bad as some would have you believe. Oregon’s, in turn, is not as good. They’re much closer than the experts think.

For Oregon to beat Auburn, defensively, they need to let Cameron Newton throw, not run. When Auburn throws, they throw. Deep. That means short drives. That means less time for the Tigers defense to rest. That falls right into the Ducks’ wishes. Tire the Auburn defense. Cameron Newton is more likely to make a critical error in the passing game than running. If the Ducks think they can beat Auburn with Newton rushing for over 200 yards, they’re wrong.

My final prediction is for an Auburn victory and I don’t think it’ll be as close as people think. I’ll take the Tigers 45-28. And I know I’m going out on a huge limb and making a bold prediction that could very well be way wrong and in no way falls in line with how most see this game playing out. But I’ve watched the Tigers all year long and watched a lot of the Ducks. I know what I see. I see a better and more complete team down on the Plains. War Eagle.

Some One-Liners About Tonight’s Game and the 2010 Season:

If I’m Oregon, the Auburn Tiger who scares me most (that isn’t Cameron Newton) is: Michael Dyer. The freshman did not have a true breakout game this season. He has the potential to make tonight his coming out party.

If I’m Auburn, the Oregon Duck who scares me most (that isn’t LaMichael James) is: Kenjon Barner. Jeff Maehl scares me a little, but I’m not a Darron Thomas believer. Barner is a better back than LaMichael James. He’s quicker and shiftier. That’s scary if I’m Auburn D-Coordinator Ted Roof.

Preseason Predicition I’m Proudest Of: Stanford winning the Pac-10. I know they didn’t, but there wasn’t a lot of people calling Stanford a potential Pac-10 champ. I’m happy that I praised the Cardinal and Andrew Luck.

Preseason Prediction I’d Most Like to Hide Away Forever: Florida to play in the national title game. And Auburn to finish fourth in the SEC West. That was very stupid.