Another College Basketball Post (And my Super Bowl Prediction)

Thursday night, I got to bear witness to one of my least favorite announcer moves. It happens when the play-by-play man asks the color commentator a specific question, often yes or no, and the color commentator says, “Well, yes, but also no. And everyone else.”

The specifics: During Thursday night’s Ohio State/Michigan game, the question was posed, “Is Ohio State the best team in America?” The color commentator’s answer? (Paraphrase) “Well, they’re good. And Kansas is good. And you can’t forget about Pittsburgh. And Duke won it last year. So yeah, I could see Ohio State playing in the Final Four.”

This set off a rant by me. Amanda got to bear witness. My biggest complaint was this: How easy is it to answer that question? Are they the best or not? The answer is simple. Yes, they’re the best. They’re undefeated. No one else is. They’re the top ranked team in every poll. They’re as flawless a team as there could be in 2010-11. Why take the easy way out? They’re a Final Four team? Way to go out on a limb.
This is the Troy Aikman rule of color commentary. You’ll see it on Sunday at the Super Bowl. Aikman loves not saying something decisively. Joe Buck will ask, “Troy, what’s your favorite bread?” and Aikman will say, “Well, ya Joe, you’re right, rye bread is delicious. But it’s important to not forget about sourdough, pumpernickel, and 12-grain honey wheat too. I mean, really, rye is one of my 9 favorite types of bread.”
Why this brand of broadcasting irks me so is easy to explain. I like opinions. And I like people who aren’t afraid to express their opinions in an intelligent, fact-supported way. What harm would have been done if last night’s color commentator had said, “You know, guy, I still think Kansas is the best team in the country. Here’s why: (list of opinions supported by facts).” In life, nothing good comes from timidity.
My rant then spawned a sort of brainstorming session for me. Amanda asked me who I thought were the four best teams in college basketball. And I know that I just wrote about college basketball recently. But, I’m all-in with college basketball right now. There’s only one football game left (Pittsburgh wins 27-24 in Super Bowl XLV). Baseball, with any consequence, is two months away. And the NBA and NHL don’t matter until May. So for me, it’s all about college basketball.
I’ll be brief(ish) in my response to Amanda’s question:
Ohio State and Kansas are the two best teams in college basketball and I fully expect them to make it to the Final Four. As I’ve written in this space before, they’re the two most balanced teams offensively and are very deep. (As a sort of side note: Ohio State is so good defensively).
So who joins them? Duke, first. I’m not concerned about the St. John’s loss. Not one bit. A road loss to a good team at the end of January never killed anyone’s chances of winning a national championship. The Devils’ lack of an interior presence hurts them against the Ohio State’s and Kansas’s of the world, but less so against the Memphis’s and Washington’s of the world. I like Duke’s experience and shooting ability. They’re my third team.
And now, the challenge! Our candidates for the fourth slot include everyone. Well, within reason. I don’t foresee Auburn making the Final Four. If I have to pick my five candidates (don’t worry, I’m going to pick one of them), I’ll take: Texas, Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Syracuse, and BYU. Each of those teams has a fatal flaw. Texas’s is coaching. Pittsburgh’s is overall offensive. San Diego State’s is mid-range shooting. Syracuse’s is wild inconsistency. And BYU’s is depth. The question is not, who’s best? It’s, “which of those short-comings is easiest to overcome?”

Coaching is not. Texas is a talented enough team to win a game in Lawrence, KS in January and they’re talented enough to make the Elite 8. But when you reach the Elite 8, it almost always comes down to the best coach making the right call. And if you follow college basketball like I do, you know that Rick Barnes almost never makes the right call. He’s a fabulous recruiter. That’s the nicest thing I can say about him as a coach. Texas is eliminated.

Depth is not. I watch the Cougars and realize that they are a one man team, much like Davidson was in 2008. And eventually, that catches up with you. Now, don’t get me wrong, there are some pieces of the Cougars puzzle who are better than the complimentary pieces on that Davidson team. And I think that as a college player, Jimmer Fredette is better than Stephen Curry was. That Davidson team couldn’t do what last year’s Butler team could because when they went up against a deep team (Kansas) they couldn’t match-up for the full game. The same fate awaits BYU. And Elite 8 loss to Kansas. BYU is eliminated.

Overall offensive sluggishness is not. Every year, we talk about Pittsburgh as a Final Four team. They’re tough and physical. They wear you down. And every year, they get outplayed by a smaller, quicker, fresher team who hasn’t spent their entire season playing attrition basketball. The same thing will happen this year. Pittsburgh’s good enough to beat anyone in one game. In a tournament, they’re not. Pittsburgh is eliminated.

So that leaves San Diego State and Syracuse. And that’s where it gets hard to predict. If the Syracuse team that won in Hartford on Wednesday shows up to the tourney, I like Syracuse. They have an inside game and a decent outside game. They play good defense. When they’re on. But if the Syracuse team that got blown out by Seton Hall shows up then I think they’re this year’s Georgetown. They’ll lose to Cleveland State in Round 1 (or 2 because of this year’s stupid 68 team field). You can’t afford to be inconsistent in March. Syracuse is eliminated.

Ultimately, I like San Diego State as that fourth team. And I know that it sounds crazy to your east coast brain. But trust me, as someone who’s watched more Mountain West basketball this season than you’d care to, that conference is really really good. I plan my Wednesday night around the CBS College Sports MWC game of the week. And I do it because I like watching good basketball. Smart basketball. Basketball that’s about strategy and endurance more than it is about having 10 blue-chippers throwing alley-oops all game long. San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, and Colorado State could all make the Sweet 16. You don’t think so because you haven’t seen them play. But trust me, as your “MWC expert”, they can. Now, will all four (and a deserving New Mexico team) make the tournament? Probably not. East coast bias. It’s hard to stay up until midnight on a Wednesday to watch a basketball game being played 2000 miles away. Especially when you’ve never heard of the players. But trust me, it’s worth it. Watch San Diego State once before the MWC tournament and you’ll agree. They play better defense than anyone other than Ohio State. They’re tough and physical when they need to be. They’re deep. They’re well coached. They have a point guard in DJ Gay who will be a household name come March. They’re led by future NBA star Kawhi Leonard. Their “fatal flaw” is that they don’t shoot the ball well from the mid-range or the 3-point line. But they can overcome. If Provo, Utah was at sea level, the Aztecs would still be undefeated. They lost that game because they weren’t conditioned to play BYU’s game at a mile above sea level. They won’t have to do that in March. And because of that, I believe they’re the fourth best team in the nation. Even if the nation doesn’t know it yet.

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