Last year, I started off 4-for-4. I then flipped Eric Berry and Russell Okung. So, I was looking good. Then I had the Cleveland Browns taking Jimmy Clausen. Clausen didn’t get drafted by the Browns. Or any other team in Round 1. Then I had Oakland taking Bruce Campbell. Which they did. In Round 4. The rest of the mock wasn’t so atrocious. I nearly hit on Tim Tebow’s slotting when most people had him going in Round 2. And I hit on Jermaine Gresham to Cincinnati. So I’m going to try my hand at it again this year. Without further ado, 2011 Mock Draft Version 1 and Only. A reminder, the selections you see are what I think will happen in terms of player slotting. No trades (though, as a sidebar, no team needs to move up in this draft more than the St. Louis Rams, to take AJ Green or Julio Jones) in this mock. Explanations where needed/wanted.

1. Carolina Panthers- Cam Newton (QB/Auburn)

This would not be my pick if I were running the Panthers. With so much uncertainty in the 2011 NFL season, I’d be hesitant to draft a QB with my first overall pick unless he was a sure thing. Newton is not that. Cam is the most dynamic QB in this draft. And he has the most to work with in terms of skill set. And the highest ceiling. But he also needs a lot of work to succeed in the NFL. I’d take a surer thing on the defensive side of the ball. Marcell Dareus or Von Miller come to mind. Bear in mind, this is not a criticism of Cam. I just don’t know for sure that he’s going to be the best player in this draft.

2. Denver Broncos- Marcell Dareus (DT/Alabama)

A no-brainer for a team that couldn’t sack a potato in 2010. Dareus is a workhorse. And a great addition to an abysmal defense.

3. Buffalo Bills- Blaine Gabbert (QB/Missouri)

Most prognosticators talk about how the Bills should draft a QB, but that they never will do the right thing. But what if they do? I think the Bills take Gabbert as the heir apparent to Jim Kelly (15 years later). It makes sense.

4. Cincinnati Bengals- AJ Green (WR/Georgia)

I prefer Julio Jones. But I really prefer being right in my mock draft. I think Cincinnati goes offense, even with the surest thing in this draft (in my opinion), Von Miller, still on the board.

5. Arizona Cardinals- Patrick Peterson (CB/LSU)

Another landing spot for Miller, but Peterson fills an immediate, glaring need.

6. Cleveland Browns- Von Miller (LB/Texas A&M)

It’s not necessarily a huge need for the Browns, but a great value pick of a guy who could go as high as #2. Miller is a high character guy with an obscene motor.

7. San Francisco 49ers- Prince Amukamara (CB/Nebraska)

The 49ers would love to see Peterson available here, but they should be happy with the Prince. Amukamara is not just a great Corner (though he may convert to Safety some day) but the best character guy in this draft. And who can doubt someone with the first name “Prince?”

8. Tennessee Titans- Robert Quinn (DE/North Carolina)

Yes, they took another DE last year in the first round (Derrick Morgan, who missed most of the 2010 season with a torn ACL). Yes, they could also go with a Quarterback (Jake Locker), Wide Receiver (Julio Jones), Offensive Tackle (Any of 4), or Defensive Tackle (Nick Fairley). Yes, they are not very good.

9. Dallas Cowboys- Tyron Smith (OT/USC)

Did you know that the Cowboys have never taken an Offensive Tackle in the first round under Jerry Jones? Well, that should change this year if they want to compete for a playoff spot in 2011. Smith is regarded as the best of a pool of good, but not great OT candidates.

10. Washington Redskins- Julio Jones (WR/Alabama)

Jones is the second coming of Hines Ward and would fill a glaring need for the Redskins. He’s a steal here in my opinion as I’d rank him as a top 5 prospect in this draft.

11. Houston Texans- Jimmy Smith (CB/Colorado)

A huge reach. This year’s Tyson Alualu. Houston is a team that needs a CB more than anyone else in this draft. If they can’t move up to draft Peterson or Amukamara, I see them reaching for the next best thing. Smith is arguably as talented a CB as Peterson or Prince, but regarded as being a diva and a distraction. The talent is good enough that Houston should take the gamble. Because their corners were awful last year. Of course, if he doesn’t get drafted here, don’t be surprised if he falls into Round 2.

12. Minnesota Vikings- Gabe Carimi (OT/Wisconsin)

Quarterback is a possibility for the Vikings, but they need to get younger on the offensive line. And really, there’s no Quarterback here who is truly worth taking this high and handing over the keys to the car to.

13. Detroit Lions- Cameron Jordan (DE/California)

Two months ago, Da’Quan Bowers was not only the top DE prospect, but the draft’s top prospect. Now, injury concerns have the Lions, in my opinion, making the smart move and taking the best available, healthy DE.

14. St. Louis Rams- Nick Fairley (DT/Auburn)

If he’s available here, and I do think he falls out of the top 10, St. Louis has a steal on their hands. The Rams are in the toughest spot at 14. They need a top flight WR, but Green and Jones will be gone by pick 14. St. Louis needs to move up to provide Sam Bradford a 12 year weapon on the outside.

15. Miami Dolphins- Nate Solder (OT/Colorado)

Of course, Jake Locker is an option. But the Dolphins need someone to flank the right side of their line. The enormous 6’8″ Solder has the potential to be the right side’s Jake Long.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars- Ryan Kerrigan (DE/Purdue)

The story here to me is the continued plummet of Da’Quan Bowers. I expect this to be a Defensive End and Kerrigan is the next best healthy DE. At some point though, Bowers’ huge potential will be too much for these teams to pass up.

17. New England Patriots- J.J. Watt (DE/Wisconsin)

I’ve seen the Patriots taking J.J. Watt in nearly every mock draft. That usually means that New England will go in the opposite direction. So, really, throw a dart at a board if you’d like. I’ll just go with the guy who seems like the best fit. Though Bowers is an intriguing prospect for New England.

18. San Diego Chargers- Da’Quan Bowers (DE/Clemson)

If any team is going to take a flier on an injured player with a limitless ceiling, it’ll be AJ Smith’s Chargers. And he fills a huge need for the team.

19. New York Giants- Anthony Costonzo (OT/Boston College)

The Giants could not protect Eli Manning last year. With so much invested in Eli and no true anchor at LT, the Giants need to take a LT. Costonzo is the best available.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Aldon Smith (DE/Missouri)

The Bucs have the youth in the middle of the front 4 with Gerald McCoy and Brian Price. Now they go out and get the youth on the edge, a place they struggled to get production from in 2010, in terms of taking down the QB.

21. Kansas City Chiefs- Phil Taylor (DT/Baylor)

I think the Glenn Dorsey pick was a disaster. With Dorsey now playing DE in their 3-4, Kansas City needs to clean up that mess by taking the talented (though troubled in the past) DT from Baylor.

22. Indianapolis Colts- Akeem Ayers (OLB/UCLA)

The Colts have needs at OT as well, however, there’s later-round depth there. That’s not the case with the LB position. The Colts defense is old, slow, untalented, or all 3. Ayers is the best LB in this draft. That is, assuming Von Miller drops out of the draft before it begins.

23. Philadelphia Eagles- Mike Pouncey (OG/Florida)

I think this might be too low for Pouncey, based entirely on the success of his brother Maurkice across the Keystone State last season.

24. New Orleans Saints- Mark Ingram (RB/Alabama)

A lack of depth in the defensive secondary draft field forces New Orleans to take a look at their biggest offensive weakness. Ingram, if healthy, could be a steal here. That is a huge “if.”

25. Seattle Seahawks- Jake Locker (QB/Washington)

Every year, there’s a pick that makes too much sense. A team without a true QB for their future. Pete Carroll’s connection to Washington coach Steve Sarkisian. Locker playing college ball in Seattle. Locker being from suburban Seattle. It makes too much sense.

26. Baltimore Ravens- Adrian Clayborn (DE/Iowa)

Clayborn without the character issues is a top 15 pick. Why not put him in Charm City with Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, etc.? Let the pros teach the talented kid how to be a pro. I think he can be a big steal this low in Round 1. Does he slip to Round 2? Probably. Should he? Absolutely not. At least not on talent alone.

27. Atlanta Falcons- Randall Cobb (WR/Kentucky)

Cobb is a speedster that Atlanta can pair with Roddy White, giving Matt Ryan a pair of weapons to throw the ball to, rather than just Roddy White and, um, Brian Finneran?

28. New England Patriots- Danny Watkins (OG/Baylor)

Just the usual sexy New England Patriots draft pick, right?

29. Chicago Bears- Christian Ballard (DT/Iowa)

Chicago is a team that needs help on both lines. They’re a likely destination for Danny Watkins, but with him off the board, they move to the D-Line, to a good fit with the hoss Ballard.

30. New York Jets- Marvin Austin (DT/North Carolina)

Austin’s talent has to be intriguing to Rex Ryan. What has to be even more intriguing is that he fills a huge need for the Jets. Austin’s ceiling places him just below Fairley and Dareus. His 2010 season suspension places him at the bottom of the first round, at the earliest.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers- Aaron Williams (CB/Texas)

There are a number of CBs who are all very similar in terms of draft grades. I think Pittsburgh takes the guy who played in the pass happy conference and played well.

32. Green Bay Packers- Cameron Heyward (DE/Ohio State)

There isn’t a whole lot of work the Packers need to do to get better. Because, you know, they won the Super Bowl last year. Heyward is a great fit for the Packers and comes with an NFL pedigree (his father is Ironhead Heyward. Trust me, no one will ever mention that during his career…).

Before we go, I’d like to give you the best players (according to me) at every position (of consequence) who remain on the board.

QB- Andy Dalton- He’s not going to wow anyone with his downfield arm. He will be a great game manager though. Think Trent Dilfer. And that’s not a slight to Dalton.

RB- Mikel Leshoure- A solid all-around back. Leshoure won’t blow you away with his quickness. He won’t blow you away with his physicality. But he should stay healthy and produce.

WR- Jerrell Jernigan- A sound route runner. Does all of the little things well. His biggest knock is his size. I’ve heard this drill before.

TE- Kyle Rudolph- No brainer.

OL- Derek Sherrod- A possible first rounder for a team like Indianapolis or Pittsburgh who need help on the line. A very solid pass blocker.

DL- Muhammad Wilkerson- A high-growth DT who played at lower tier Temple. Room to grow in his smallish frame. Very quick. Could go in Round 1.

LB- Dontay Moch- Another high upside guy. Ran a 4.4 40-yard dash. Could move to safety.

DS- Ras-I Dowling- A big cornerback with a great name. Why not?

Enjoy the Draft folks.