I began last year’s college football preview with a bit about how I was not particularly exuberant for the start of the season. I will not begin this season’s preview with the same sentiment. In fact, you will see from the over 6,000 words below, that I am very excited for the 2011 season.
We enter the college football season with story lines galore. From Andrew Luck returning for his junior year at Stanford, to Ohio State’s fall from grace, to Miami’s nostalgia for the days of the “U”, to Oregon’s quest to avenge last year’s National Championship game loss, to Alabama’s QB situation, to Brady Hoke taking over at Michigan, to conference realignment.
I’d like to start with Andrew Luck though because frankly, first is a place he should get used to. In April of 2012, barring a tragedy, he’ll be the NFL’s #1 overall pick. He’s the most polished quarterback since Peyton Manning. Impeccably accurate, blessed with a strong arm, blessed with size, and, unlike Manning, as athletic a pocket passer as you’ll ever see. In fact, the Manning comparison isn’t quite apt, as far as quarterbacks go. He’s much more like Aaron Rodgers. Just bigger. And faster. And at this point in his career, a better QB.
To me though, what sets Luck apart is his decision making off the field. You will not read Andrew Luck’s name in newspaper clippings (because you don’t read newspapers) about bar fights. He won’t be taking money from, as former University of Miami coach Jimmy Johnson calls them, “jock sniffers.” He won’t be beating up women. He won’t be driving drunk. What he will be doing is attaining his degree, from Stanford no less, in Architectural Design and Engineering. Not Communication Studies. Not Family Studies. Not “Undeclared.” No, Luck, a Junior, will be graduating in May with a degree in Architectural Design and Engineering. All while quarterbacking a major college program looking for their first National Championship since 1926 and their third consecutive winning season (all under Luck).
Of course, the loudest story line coming into the 2011 season won’t be Andrew Luck’s return. It will instead be scandal. Scandals at Ohio State, Miami, and Oregon. I need not rehash any of these stories in great detail. The Buckeyes lost their head coach and quarterback to a memorabilia selling scandal. The Hurricanes are facing major sanctions from the NCAA after a convicted felon confessed to having given dozens of Canes players money and cars while they were playing at the school. And the Ducks recently released a running back recruit who was brought to the school by a shady Texan street agent named Willie Lyles, who confessed to a $25,000 payment to him by the Ducks head coach, Chip Kelly. And yes, that’s actually the man’s name. Willie Lyles. “Shady” and guys named “Willie Lyles” go hand-in-hand. You’d almost assuredly hear the phrase “smooth talking” used to describe a man named Willie Lyles. Back to business.
The Oregon recruiting scandal will be a bit of a black cloud hanging over the program as they will assuredly contend for a National Championship in 2011. The biggest question marks come in the form of replacing star WR Jeffrey Maehl and revamping an offensive line that got thinner following graduations. The Ducks, though, do return starting QB Darron Thomas and the electric running back tandem of LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner, Though the 2011 schedule will be a tough road to hoe. More on that later, though.
Alabama is, without question, one of the best teams on paper in college football. There is one glaring shortcoming though in Tuscaloosa (time will tell if it is a major or minor one): Quarterback. The Crimson Tide lost Greg McElroy to graduation and come into the 2011 season with the inexperienced AJ McCarron and the even more inexperienced Phillip Sims. McCarron is a lanky pocket passer. Sims is a strong armed freshman with some mobility. McCarron is the only of the two with any SEC experience. And it wasn’t a very good show, as he came in for the injured McElroy in last year’s Iron Bowl and was unable to rally Alabama from behind to beat the eventual National Champions, Auburn. I have a feeling that Alabama coach Nick Saban will go with McCarron initially, hoping to not lose any games (a road test at Penn State looms in Week 2) before eventually turning to Sims out of necessity. I don’t anticipate great things from McCarron. Sims could be great. Luckily for Alabama, their defense should be good enough to hide the QB growing pains before the SEC schedule begins in earnest on September 24th against Arkansas.
Brady Hoke is taking over at Michigan. People will talk a lot about this, because it’s Michigan and Hoke, San Diego State’s former Head Coach, is a relative unknown to most. They’ll talk about his no-nonsense approach. A lunch pail attitude in Ann Arbor. A different kind of Shoelace (Michigan QB Denard Robinson, who, if you weren’t aware, plays with untied shoes). Michigan will go 7-5. The more things change….
The other annoying story line that you’ll hear lots about is conference realignment. The Big 12 now has 10 teams. The Big 10 now has 12 teams. The Pac-10 is now the Pac12. Boise State moved from the WAC to the Mountain West. Texas Christian is moving from the Mountain West after the season to the Big East. Brigham Young is now a football independent, much like Notre Dame is. Got it? Who’s ready for some football?
ACC
Always a boring place to start, but my life philosophy is to always get the tough stuff out of the way first. And if there’s anything tougher than staying interested in the ACC, well, it’s staying interested in the Big East.
Much like any other year in the Atlantic Coast Conference, it seemingly comes down to two teams: Virginia Tech and Florida State. What makes 2011 different, I guess, is that Florida State is the clear favorite to win the conference and to contend for a National Championship. The Seminoles and Hokies do not play in the regular season, though it appears very likely we’ll see them meet in Charlotte/Jacksonville/Tampa/Macon/Wherever the ACC Championship is held this year, in December. Virginia Tech’s toughest conference test will be a home game on Octoer 8th against Miami, who at that point in the season may have already imploded. Even having lost starting QB Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech should be able to run the table during their regular season. Which says more about the ACC than it does Virginia Tech.
Florida State’s road is tougher than Virginia Tech’s and involves a non-conference showdown against the nation’s #1 team, Oklahoma. Last year, the Sooners took the ‘Noles to the woodshed, beating them in OK by 30. This year, the ‘Noles are better and hosting the Sooners. I’ll write a little bit about the non conference schedule later, but just know that this is one of two potential National Championship matchups that we’ll see in September.
Maryland and North Carolina State are the in-conference “contenders.” Maryland brings in former UConn coach Randy Edsall to lead an experienced team coming off of a 9-4 season. North Carolina State is led by coach Tom O’Brien, who may be on the hottest seat in the nation. He’ll need to get a lot out of super-recruit Mike Glennon to have a shot at the ACC Atlantic Division title. I doubt it will happen for either.
Atlantic Division (conference records in parenthesis)
1. Florida State (8-0)
2. North Carolina State (5-3)
3. Maryland (5-3)
4. Clemson (4-4)
5. Boston College (3-5)
6. Wake Forest (0-8)
Coastal Division
1. Virginia Tech (8-0)
2. North Carolina (6-2)
3. Georgia Tech (4-4)
4. Miami (4-4)
5. Duke (1-7)
6. Virginia (1-7)
ACC Championship: Florida State over Virginia Tech 28-13
Big East
The Big East does not deserve to be mentioned here. If I’m going to talk about the Big East, I may as well talk about the Sun Belt Conference. Regardless, predicted order of finish and thus, victim in the Orange Bowl, to follow.
1. West Virginia (6-1)
2. South Florida (5-2)
3. Cincinnati (4-3)
4. Pittsburgh (4-3)
5. Louisville (4-3)
6. Connecticut (3-4)
7. Syracuse (2-5)
8. Rutgers (1-6)
Big 12 (The One With 10 Teams)
The Big 12 lost two Northern Division members (and thus, the divisions) to the Pac 12 (Colorado) and Big 10 (the one with 12 teams) (Nebraska). The loss of Colorado hurts like a feather blowing onto your arm in the cool summer breeze. In fact, most people will not notice that Colorado has gone west, so to speak. The loss of Nebraska hurts this conference more though. Nebraska was a traditional Big 8 (the previous incarnation of the Big 12) team and the standard bearer of the conference. Losing Nebraska hurts the Big 12’s credibility in the long-term. In the short-term, it means that Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M don’t have to compete with the Husker’s strong D. Instead, they can make like the Big 12 does (of late) and have a good ol’ fashioned, 4 hour, no huddle shootout every Saturday afternoon.
For a conference historically aligned with option rushing attacks and powerful rush defenses, the Big 12 certainly doesn’t look like it is supposed to. The above teams (in addition to Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas) have no intention to ground and pound. The Big 12’s best teams do it in the air with no huddle offenses, five wide receiver sets, and 400 yard passing days. And the conference features a handful of very good QBs.
If you’re going to start somewhere, you start with the Oklahoma Sooners who will begin 2011 as the #1 rated team in the country. The Sooners are led by New Mexico native Landry Jones at QB. Jones has made great strides in his career since taking over for an injured Sam Bradford in a 2009 loss to BYU. In that game, Jones looked like the Freshman that he was. Jones is a lanky, fairly polished passer with the best WR duo in college football in Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills. Jones took huge steps forward last year, passing for 4700 yards and 38 TDs. It’s very likely that 2011 could be a 5,000 yard season for the Junior.
Not to be forgotten about in the Sooner State is 27 year old Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden and his primary target, receiver Justin Blackmon. Oklahoma State was second in the nation (Oklahoma was third) in passing yards in 2010 and that will not change too much in 2011, despite losing their Offensive Coordinator ,Dana Holgorsen, to a head coaching job in West Virginia. Blackmon is a future first round NFL draft pick with great hands and good speed. Weeden is a smart and accurate passer. Smart because he throws to Blackmon. And accurate because, well, he throws to Blackmon.
Further south, down in the Lone Star State, is Ryan Tannehill at Texas A&M, Tannehill, a wide receiver coming into 2010, took over for senior QB Jerrod Johnson last season against Kansas and led the Aggies to the Cotton Bowl, winning 6 of 7 games, including a win in Austin over rival Texas. Tannehill returns in 2011 leading the more balanced (than the Oklahoma kids) Aggies into a season with the highest of expectations in College Station. Tannehill may not be the passer that Jones and Weeden are, but he makes up for that with his mobility and arm strength.
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M all enter the season ranked in the Top 10, all expected by their fan bases to win the conference. The Sooners play at Oklahoma State, but host the Aggies. The Cowboys host the Sooners, but play at the Aggies. And, well, you can figure out Texas A&M’s scenario (I hope).
The Cowboys have the toughest road, playing 5 conference games on the road. Oklahoma does as well, but the Sooners get the advantage of playing the conference’s fourth best team, Missouri, at home. We’ll find out very early on which team, between the Cowboys and Aggies, has the inside track to challenging the Sooners for the conference title. OK State and Texas A&M play in College Station on September 24th. I expect an A&M victory. I do not, however, expect an Aggie victory in Norman. Nor do I expect a Cowboy victory over their arch rival. Oklahoma is a notch ahead of both the Aggies and Cowboys defensively. All of these games will be close, but a 51-48 victory is just as good as a 17-14 one.
1. Oklahoma (9-0)
2. Texas A&M (8-1)
3. Oklahoma State (7-2)
4. Missouri (6-3)
5. Texas (5-4)
6. Baylor (4-5)
7. Texas Tech (3-6)
8. Kansas State (2-7)
9. Kansas (1-8)
10. Iowa State (0-9)
Big 10 (The One With 12 Teams)
Taking a page from the Big 12, stylistically (the other thing they’ve taken is Nebraska), the Big 10 tried to become a passing league last year, seemingly out of nowhere. Michigan State, led by Kirk Cousins had a solid 11-2 campaign. Northwestern, while they finished just a game over .500 became interesting to watch thanks to the passing prowess of Dan Persa. Still, the Spartans and Wildcats are outliers in a league where teams want to run the football. Wisconsin found itself in last year’s Rose Bowl thanks to a top 25 rushing offense and a top 25 overall defense, in the classic Big 10 mold. Likewise for Sugar Bowl participant Ohio State. Same story for Nebraska who was top 10 nationally in rushing offense and scoring defense (while playing in the electric, aerial Big 12).
The biggest story line for 2011 in the Big 10, even with the addition of Nebraska, is the fall of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Still, those expecting a precipitous dropoff in Columbus will be left disappointed. The Buckeyes are still loaded with 5 star recruits and even if receiver DeVier Posey and starting running back Dan Herron are suspended for the first four games, the only challenges are a game at a Miami team that may have already given up, and then an October 1st game in East Lansing against Michigan State that I wouldn’t have picked Ohio State to win even with Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel. I expect the Buckeyes to contend. But they’ll be contending for a trip to the Alamo Bowl. Still, a success given where they’re starting.
The best team in the conference in my opinion is the newest member. Nebraska brings one of the nation’s best defenses and a spread option run attack that worked very well against the Big 10’s slower defenses at Michigan under Rich Rodriguez. The problem with Michigan was that their defense was terrible. Nebraska’s won’t be. And the schedule favors the Huskers with only one true road test, at the conference’s second best team, Wisconsin, on October 1.
Wisconsin comes into the season fairly under the radar for a team that represented the conference in the Rose Bowl last year and has the highest profile transfer under center. Former North Carolina State QB Russell Wilson left the Wolfpack after last season and now finds himself in Madison. He is without question the best QB at Wisconsin in over a decade. Wilson is fully capable of winning games in the air or on the ground. He’s nowhere near as dynamic as Denard Robinson in Ann Arbor, but he’s more effective. And with 4 years as a starting QB under his belt, Wilson knows how to play the position at this level. He gives the Badgers something that they have lacked for quite some time: a QB capable of doing more than managing games. Wilson can win them.
Of course, with the Big 10 possessing 12 teams, there’s a conference championship game, which sets us up for a possible rematch between the Huskers and Badgers in December. On a neutral field, I like Nebraska’s athleticism over the Badgers’ physicality. I think Wisconsin wins the regular season game thanks to the home field advantage.. But that won’t send them to the Rose Bowl this year.
Legends Division
1. Nebraska (7-1)
2. Michigan State (6-2)
3. Northwestern (6-2)
4. Michigan (4-4)
5. Minnesota (3-5)
6. Iowa (2-6)
Leaders Division
1. Wisconsin (8-0)
2. Ohio State (5-3)
3. Penn State (4-4)
4. Illinois (3-5)
5. Purdue (1-7)
6. Indiana (0-8)
Big 10 Championship: Nebraska over Wisconsin 13-10
Pac 12
Much like last season, I think the Pac 12 is the second best conference in America. This is due in large part to the wide swath of talent. The Pac 12 features three elite teams (Oregon, Stanford, and USC) and a group of teams with potential to contend for a conference title (Utah, Washington, and Arizona). Of course, there are the bottom feeders (Washington State and Colorado). But the top level talent in the Pac 12, especially offensively, is there. And unlike the Big 12 (the one with 10), these teams can play some defense.
Oregon comes in as most people’s favorite in the conference and it’s fairly easy to see why. Their offense is a marvel to watch with speed at every position, right down to the undersized, super athletic offensive line. The questions for this year are whether both lines will hold up with a handful of new faces being plugged in. And it’s a big question. If Oregon’s defense can’t get quick 3-and-outs, it puts a hole in coach Chip Kelly’s intention to keep his opposing defense on the field and tired. And that’s the inherent flaw in this style of offense. Your defense becomes your biggest enemy. It’s totally overlooked by most, but a great example is Auburn’s defense last year. If not for the presence of a transcendent QB (Cam Newton) the Tigers would have been a 3 or 4 loss team. Their defense could not help the offense keep teams on the field. Instead it helped opposing teams keep points on the board. Darron Thomas is good. Darron Thomas is not Cam Newton. And that may be a big problem for the Ducks.
If you’re looking for 2011’s transcendent player, look no further than the beautiful Palo Alto, California and the previously talked about Andrew Luck. Outside of a lack of premium talent at the skill positions (other than QB), Stanford’s potential Achilles heel is the departure of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. However, there are very few (just one) early challenges on Stanford’s road to a Pac 12 Championship. There’s enough time for the Cardinal to adjust to new coach David Shaw’s philosophies. And it’s not like Shaw is a new face. He’s been the Offensive Coordinator at Stanford for 4 years. Outside of a trip to Tucson on September 17th, the Cardinal do not play a conference contender until October 29 in LA against USC. Of course, the centerpiece game on the schedule comes on November 12 when Oregon travels to Palo Alto. And, as opposed to the 2010 game in Eugene, the Cardinal will be able to hold onto a lead. And they’ll win.
So, Stanford is going to go undefeated, right? Well, no. That roadblock on the 29th of October is interesting. See, the USC Trojans have nothing to play for in 2011, but pride. They are not eligible to appear in any polls. They can’t play in the Pac 12 Title Game. They can’t play in a bowl game. And while it seems senseless to put stock into a team with nothing to play for, it’s worth noting that the Trojans are likely the most talented all-around team in the conference and they themselves are led by a potential top 5 NFL Draft pick in QB Matt Barkley. I’d be fascinated to hear the preseason prognostication if the Trojans had something to play for in 2011. But with Lane Kiffin’s ego and Matt Barkley likely to leave for the NFL (and wanting to prove himself to be the second best QB in the draft) I think USC plays for the only thing they can get: respect. And nothing would make that mark more than a win over Stanford and Andrew Luck.
North Division
1. Stanford (8-1)
2. Oregon (8-1)
3. Washington (4-5)
4. California (3-7)
5. Oregon State (2-7)
6. Washington State (1-8)
South Division
1. USC (8-1)
2. Arizona (6-3)
3. Utah (6-3)
4. UCLA (5-4)
5. Arizona State (4-5)
6. Colorado (0-10)
Pac-12 Championship: Stanford over Arizona (USC not eligible) 35-21
SEC
College football’s national champion has come from the SEC each of the last six seasons. So you’d think, “Why would that change in 2011?” If I’m to look for a reason why, I would say it’s because the conference isn’t as good in 2011 as it has been in years past. Alabama may be the second rated team in the country, but they’re not a sure thing on offense. LSU is a sure thing on defense, but not on offense (and they may be close to losing starting QB Jordan Jefferson as he is under police investigation for a bar brawl in Baton Rouge). Florida has questions at QB and an entirely new coaching staff, including first time head coach Will Muschamp (formerly the D-Coordinator in Austin). Auburn may be the defending national champ, but they are returning fewer starters than any other Division I program this season. And one of those starters, Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, will be impossible to replace, especially with the options available down on the Plains. The job will likely fall to junior Barrett Trotter, though don’t be surprised to see super frosh Kiehl Frazier getting snaps behind center at some point in the season. Arkansas was thought to be a dark horse contender, until they lost star running back Knile Davis to a season ending ankle injury. Mississippi State is improving rapidly, but they’re a year away. Tennessee is improving slowly and a few years away. Georgia has a good quarterback (Aaron Murray), a desperate coach (Mark Richt), and not much else.
If you noticed that someone is missing (and I’m not talking about Kentucky, Vanderbilt, or Ole Miss), you are right. And if you think there’s a reason why they’re missing, you’re also right.
The missing team for those of you in the dark resides in Columbia, South Carolina. They’re coached by a National Championship winning head coach, quarterbacked by a 4-year starter, led in the backfield by arguably the nation’s best running back, flanked out wide by the nation’s best wide receiver, bring in the nation’s top overall recruit onto an already solid defensive line, and have a solid defensive secondary, anchored by cornerback Stephon Gilmore, a potential All-American in his Sophomore season.
The pedigree is certainly lacking from a historical perspective for the University of South Carolina Gamecocks. But pedigree aside, on paper, this is the conference’s best overall team, with Alabama not very far behind. Most would point to often troubled Gamecock QB Stephen Garcia as a glaring weakness for the program. However, I don’t. Garcia can manage a game pretty well. And he’s got two All-American security blankets in RB Marcus Lattimore and the fabulous, majestic, near perfect Alshon Jeffrey at WR.
Contending for a National Championship would be a huge step up for a team that was 9-5 last season (5-3 in the SEC) and played in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, losing to Florida State. What South Carolina has in their favor is a relatively easy SEC schedule. No Alabama. No LSU. Road games at Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Tennessee. All are winnable. None will be easy. It’s likely that the Gamecocks slip up somewhere along the way. The home schedule is even less of a challenge, with Florida being the only conference contender coming to Columbia. If nothing else, the Gamecocks will be in Atlanta in December as SEC East champions. Who will they play?
Alabama. That’s all. I don’t really need to write more do I?
East Division
1. South Carolina (7-1)
2. Florida (5-3)
3. Georgia (5-3)
4. Tennessee (2-6)
5. Vanderbilt (1-5)
6. Kentucky (0-8)
West Division
1. Alabama (7-1)
2. Mississippi State (6-2)
3. LSU (6-2)
4. Arkansas (4-4)
5. Auburn (4-4)
6. Ole Miss (2-6)
SEC Championship South Carolina over Alabama 17-14
Mountain West
If you came here looking for me to break down Wyoming’s spread offense, you came to the wrong place. The Mountain West as far as I’m considered comes down to 3 teams. Really, just 2. But the Air Force Academy is an interesting matchup for most teams because they still run an option- run offense. I don’t think that Boise State or Texas Christian will lose to Air Force, but the Falcons will make it interesting.
No, this is all about one game. November 12 in beautiful Boise, Idaho. This will be the only year that Boise State and TCU are in the same conference. And this game could decide a lot. And “a lot” does not necessarily mean the Mountain West title. I think TCU will be playing spoilers. They will know that they stand between Boise and a trip to New Orleans in January. The Mountain West took this home game away from the Horned Frogs and moved it from Fort Worth to Boise when they defected to the Big East (where they will begin play next season). It was a bad move by the conference to treat the team that brought it so much good football publicity with such disregard. The Big East move was something TCU had to do to compete for BCS bowl berths every year. And on their way out of the office after years of great work, instead of being given a plaque for service, they got handed one last, very difficult, assignment.
On top of the middle finger motivation, TCU also would love to avenge a loss to Boise State in 2010’s Fiesta Bowl. The two schools have developed a rivalry despite having rarely played in their histories. Make no mistake, there will be no bigger game in the 2011 regular season than the one on November 12. You’ll find no more emotion. No more passion. No more will. In most other cases this season, teams can afford a loss. It seems like that kind of season. This is the exception.
So who wins? Boise wins a brutal, physical, game with an end of game Kellen Moore TD pass, by a score of 24-21. And that makes Boise State 12-0. And you know what that means.
Independents
There are two independents who warrant mention in terms of the big picture of the 2011 college football season. One, Notre Dame, comes in with high expectations. The other, Brigham Young, comes in under the national radar. Both of those things will change fairly early in the season.
For Notre Dame, it seems like every three years they inexplicably appear in the Preseason AP Top 25. People say, “This is the year.” I’ve even seen some experts pick the Irish to play in the National Championship (seriously, people employed by major networks (CBS in this case) making that pick). That won’t happen. In fact, it won’t even come close to happening.
Last year, Notre Dame finished the regular season 7-5, but won the Sun Bowl convincingly over Miami to wrap up the season at 8-5. This, for whatever reason, has led to the high expectations. Never mind that coach Brian Kelly just settled on a starting QB (incumbent Dayne Crist over sophomore Tommy Rees) this week. Never mind that the schedule poses a number of challenges. Never mind that Crist has done nothing in his career to distinguish himself. It’s Notre Dame. And they won the last game they played. Let the hype begin. I think the Irish finish 8-4. Losses to Michigan, Michigan State, USC, and Stanford.
As for BYU, they’re not going to come onto the national radar because I expect them to win a lot of games. No, for those unfamiliar with the story, BYU has made itself a football independent (they’ll join the West Coast Conference (the one with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s) in basketball) beginning this season. And with that independence comes a contract with ESPN to air most of the Cougars games in 2011. You’ll see BYU playing Utah State, Central Florida, and Hawaii (among others) in 2011 on your televisions. And you’ll likely think to yourself at some point, “Wait, BYU is on AGAIN???!!!” Make no mistake, the early stages of this agreement will benefit those in Provo more than those in Bristol, as the program looks to schedule marquee games across an entire season in upcoming years. It will be a challenge for the university. BYU will not be a top or second tier team in 2011. But they’ll certainly get the TV coverage, which is great exposure for the school (read: LDS faith) as they try to push themselves towards Notre Dame-type status.
The Cougars have a few minor challenges on the road (Ole Miss and Oregon State) and then some major ones (Texas and TCU). The rest of the schedule sees BYU playing only one major program (its arch rival Utah). I expect an 8-4 season for the Cougars. Sophomore QB Jake Heaps ended the 2010 season with 5 of 6 victories and played much better down the stretch, all as a true freshman. The offensive line, especially on the ends, is solid and will keep the young QB upright. The question will be whether Heaps can take the next step and become a top tier QB. If he does, we’ll not only be seeing the Cougars a lot in the coming year, but hearing about them as well.
Non-Conference
I’ve purposely avoided talking about the non-conference schedule above because I believe it warrants its own section. And it gets started very early on.
Week 1:
TCU at Baylor- A tough test for the TCU defense as it goes up against dynamic QB Robert Griffin III. They’ll be up to the task. Something to watch: TCU QB Casey Pachall taking over for the departed Andy Dalton. The Baylor defense will not pose a difficult threat, but it’ll be interesting to see where his confidence level is. Expect a 100 yard game from RB Ed Wesley.
Boise State vs Georgia- The game is being played in Atlanta, but don’t worry, it’s a “neutral site game.” So what if Athens, GA is 70 miles from the Georgia Dome. Kidding aside, this is as good as a road game for Boise State, which is fine. In 2005, Boise State set itself back years by traveling to Athens and getting taken out back by the Bulldogs. This Georgia team is not as good as that team and this Boise team is better than that Boise team. And it will show. It has to for the Broncos. A loss here would be devastating for the school. They’ll win comfortably. At least they better hope so.
Oregon vs. LSU- This game is another neutral site affair, coming to you from Cowboys Stadium. Both teams come in ranked in the top 5, though both come in with question marks. An Oregon loss will essentially take them out of the national title race. LSU can afford a close loss. I’ve gone back and forth on this game. I’m not quite sure who has the advantage. Oregon should be more motivated. LSU’s defense is a world better than the Auburn defense that beat the Ducks in Glendale, AZ last January. Right now, I’ll take the Ducks. I don’t know that LSU’s defense will be in the shape it needs to be to play Oregon’s offense. And for the Ducks, they just need to hope they can stop the Tigers a few times offensively. LSU is no juggernaut there, so it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Unless the Pac-12 is really as inferior as the SEC nation would like you to think. On this night, it won’t be. Oregon wins a close one.
Week 2:
Arizona at Oklahoma State- An early season test for the dynamic Oklahoma State offense. They’ll dismiss of the Wildcats fairly easily on one side of the ball, but I wonder about their ability to stop Arizona’s QB/WR combo of Nick Foles and Juron Criner. It’ll be a good test for the Cowboys defense. I like them to win a 45-31 type shootout.
Alabama at Penn State- Someone will say something about how the Nittany Lions are going to lay it all out and win a big one for Joe. They’ll be very wrong. Very, very wrong.
Notre Dame at Michigan- The first night game ever at Michigan Stadium. Brady Hoke’s first test. Michigan surprises some people and puts a hole in the “Notre Dame for National Championship” movement.
Week 3:
Oklahoma at Florida State- I mean, an absolute mega game. The loser will lose all hope of playing for a championship because of the conference they play in. Oklahoma wins a close one.
Ohio State at Miami- Call it the Scandal Bowl. Also call it a Buckeyes victory.
Auburn at Clemson- Neither team is likely to make a run at New Orleans, but the game deserves mention because of how close Clemson came to beating Auburn last season. They’ll come so close this year that they’ll actually do it.
Week 4:
LSU at West Virginia- The Mountaineers nearly won last season in Baton Rouge. If they get the job done this season, it’ll go a long way towards Big East supremacy, er, legitimacy. West Virginia keeps it close but loses to the Tigers.
Week 5:
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas- This one will also take place in Cowboys Stadium. Unlike the previous two meetings, I think the Aggies win this one and keep their National Title dreams alive.
After Week 5, conference play begins, in earnest. Of course, there are a few rivalry games at the end of the season (Florida State v. Florida, Georgia v. Georgia Tech). You won’t really need to plan your schedule around any of these games.
Non-BCS Bowl Projections
I’ve never tried this before and it’s very likely that I won’t predict a single game correctly, but if you’re still reading, you likely have very little to live for. So I’ll extend your life a little longer. This was much more of a challenge than I expected it to be. Also worth noting to those of you unfamiliar with college football that these are actual bowl games. You’ll also hear people in late December complaining about how there’s too many bowl games. This is because people like to complain about things that affect them in no way at all. Bowl games are good. They allow teams to play one more game and receive a payout from a willing sponsor. If R+L Carriers wants to give a few hundred thousand dollars to the 3rd place team in Conference USA, why should I complain? No one has ever been tied into a chair and forced to watch the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Let the kids play.
New Mexico Bowl: Arizona State vs. San Diego State
Famous Potatoes Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. Southern Mississippi
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: UConn vs. Central Florida
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Air Force vs. Nevada
MAACO Bowl: TCU vs. UCLA
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Tulsa vs. Ohio
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Colorado State vs. Boston College
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Toledo vs. Penn State
Belk Bowl: Louisville vs. Clemson
Military Bowl: Navy vs. Maryland
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
Champs Sports Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Miami
Valero Alamo Bowl: Missouri vs. Arizona
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: BYU vs. Houston
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Auburn
Insight Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oklahoma State
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Northwestern vs. Baylor
Hyundai Sun Bowl: South Florida vs. Washington
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tennessee vs. East Carolina
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Utah State vs. Army
Chick Fil-A Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State
Gator Bowl: Michigan vs. Arkansas
Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Florida
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. LSU
BBVA Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Florida Atlantic
Godaddy.com Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. Temple
BCS
To set up my BCS projections, let’s take a look at our Big 6 conference champions:
ACC: Florida State
Big East: West Virginia
Big 12 (the one with 10): Oklahoma *
Big 10 (the one with 12): Nebraska
Pac 12: Stanford
SEC: South Carolina
At-Large:
Boise State *
Alabama
Oregon
Wisconsin
Rose Bowl: Stanford over Nebraska
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina over West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Alabama over Oregon
Orange Bowl: Florida State over Wisconsin
BCS National Championship: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
In 2007, Boise State and Oklahoma played in the Fiesta Bowl in a classic game, remembered for a hook-and-ladder play for a touchdown late in the 4th quarter, a Statue of Liberty play for a game winning 2-point conversion, and a marriage proposal. It’s also remembered as Bob Stoops’ most embarrassing loss at Oklahoma. That year’s Sooners team was stacked. Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Malcolm Kelly, Manny Johnson, and Juaqin Iglesias on the outside (all excellent college receivers). Trent Williams on the offensive line, Gerald McCoy at DT, Jermaine Gresham at tight end, etc, etc. Even their kicker, Garrett Hartley, has made a name for himself in the NFL winning a Super Bowl with the Saints. Boise came into that game with future NFL stars, um, Jared Zabransky? Ian Johnson? Jerard Raab?
For one night, the little school, with the blue field, in a small city in the Northwest was better than the blue blood, Midwestern, powerhouse. And it helped Boise State get itself back to respected status following their Georgia debacle two years earlier.
As for 2011 (or 2012 as it were), the question has to be asked, “What are the biggest obstacles to these two teams being undefeated?” For Oklahoma, it’s undoubtedly the game in Tallahassee against Florida State. Of course, they’ll need to win games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but the Seminoles pose the biggest schematic challenge for Oklahoma. For the Broncos, avenging the loss to Georgia, beating a motivated TCU team, and never becoming complacent (see: Reno, Nevada. November 26, 2010) will be their biggest challenges.
In the game, I’ll take the Broncos again. Scoff as the power conferences will, Boise State is the best all around team in the country. In 2007, people chalked up their victory to “gimmicks and tricks.” This time they won’t do it with “gimmicks and tricks.” They’ll beat the Sooners like they beat Virginia Tech last year. They’ll outplay them. Kellen Moore will outplay Landry Jones. The defense will swarm and attack. And Chris Peterson will scheme better than Bob Stoops (again). If it happens, it’ll be a landmark moment in college football and a bright spot on what has been a pretty bad stretch of publicity for the sport. Make that a bright, blue spot.
Heisman
The race for the Heisman will be a race for second place. I fully expect, as you can tell, Andrew Luck to live up to the hype and to exceed last year’s success.
1. Andrew Luck (QB/Stanford)
2. Kellen Moore (QB/Boise State)
3. Trent Richardson (RB/Alabama)
4. Landry Jones (QB/Oklahoma)
5. Marcus Lattimore (RB/South Carolina)
Wrap-Up
Forget the Holidays. This is the most wonderful time of the year. September 3rd can’t come soon enough.
Mid-Atlantic Bias 