Three weeks into the college football season (somehow a quarter of the way there for some teams) and very little clarity has taken hold. Two teams previously thought to have a chance at a National Championship game appearance have thrown themselves out of the swimming pool because of losses (Oregon to LSU and Florida State to Oklahoma). While neither team is now disqualified for a BCS National Championship appearance, neither is in very good shape. Florida State will play one more high profile regular season game (against Florida to end the season). Oregon as well plays one more high profile game (at Stanford in November). Each just needs to keep winning and hope that those above them come out flat one week.
Florida State and Oregon will get some relief on Saturday when Oklahoma State and Texas A&M square off in what boils down to an early season BCS eliminator game (I still think Texas A&M wins that one). In fact, Saturday’s schedule could clear a lot of things up. Or muddy the water further. Arkansas will face off against Alabama as they play the murderer’s row portion of their schedule (the following week they travel to Arlington, TX to play Texas A&M). A win by Arkansas over Alabama (highly possible) will vault them into the National Championship discussion and could set us up for a huge elimination style game the next week.
But we’re not going to talk about the “What if’s?”. I’m more concerned with right now. Here are my top 5 teams in the country, based on where we sit right now. Who they’ve beaten. How they’ve looked.
5. Wisconsin
-They haven’t exactly played the 2005 Texas Longhorns thus far, but they’ve looked great in pummeling some of the worst teams in FBS (UNLV, Oregon State, and Northern Illinois). Wisconsin’s biggest test will come in 8 days when they host Nebraska at Camp Randall Stadium.
For Wisconsin, the thing that makes them the most dangerous is their quarterback. As I said in the college football preview, Russell Wilson gives the Badgers something they’ve lacked for years: a real, living quarterback who can do things. Wilson is the best quarterback in the Big 10 and it’s not even close. He’s good enough to win games for a Wisconsin team that also has a great defense and a terrific running game. If they beat Nebraska, they’ll be in great shape to get to New Orleans in January.
4. Stanford
-Andrew Luck. And also, Andrew Luck.
Not only did Stanford take care of their only early challenge (at an Arizona team that I’ve grossly overrated), but they did it easily. Luck has been machine-like so far, posting a 67% completion pct, while throwing for 786 yards in 3 games, with an 8:1 TD to INT ratio. You know, just like Andrew Luck. Stanford is off this week before four straight games against the weak links of the Pac 12. They should be 7-0 heading into a game against a USC team that has looked wholly beatable this season.
3. Boise State
-People, as is their wont, will say that the Georgia win means nothing. They’re wrong. They’ll also say the trouncing of Toledo is nothing to crow about. They’re wrong. Boise has faced two opponents this season and dominated them both. And that’s all they’ll need to do to get to New Orleans as far as I’m concerned. You cannot, in good conscience, leave an undefeated Boise State team out of the national championship game at the benefit of a one-loss any conference team. Not with Chris Peterson. Not with Kellen Moore. Not with the years of success they’ve had. The BCS is supposed to be about having the two best teams in the country face each other for a championship. If Boise is undefeated at season’s end, they’re one of those two best teams.
2. Oklahoma
-The offense didn’t look particularly swift in beating Florida State on Saturday night. And the defense didn’t exactly have to contend with a machine in the FSU offense. But the Sooners looked solid. They got to FSU QB EJ Manuel. They caused turnovers. And they won handily, on the road, something they haven’t done much recently. And they did it without Landry Jones playing his best game at QB. The rest of the schedule is a challenge (games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M namely, not to mention the rivalry game against a Texas team who is much better now with Colt McCoy II at QB.). The Sooners are a very good team. They’re a veteran group who is ready for the big time. That schedule, though, is filled with big time.
1. Louisiana State
-No one has impressed more than LSU in the first 3 weeks of the season. They trounced Oregon in Dallas and manhandled Mississippi State in Starkville. They’ve looked like world beaters.
They are not world beaters. There’s a formula for beating LSU. It involves spreading the field to throw short. The Tigers secondary is their weakest link. The Tigers dared Oregon to pass, but Darron Thomas is not Joey Harrington. The Ducks tried to attack the deep secondary and got pummeled. The formula for beating LSU will be on display Saturday in Morgantown, West Virginia when the Mountaineers shock a lot of people by beating LSU. Dana Holgerson (and his fabulous hair) has the system best served to beat a team like LSU. Speed and a capable quarterback. Don’t be surprised if West Virginia only runs the ball 8 times on Saturday. You don’t beat LSU by running the ball. You beat them by throwing it and making Jarrett Lee, LSU’s much maligned 9th year senior QB, throw the ball. For now, the Tigers occupy the top spot here. Come next Monday, that won’t be the case.
Mid-Atlantic Bias 