Twas September when last I waxed poetic about my dearest love, that beauty who consumeth so much of my Autumnal Saturdays. Much has changed….okay this is stupid.
Back in September I wrote that Wisconsin, “If they beat Nebraska, will be in great shape to get to New Orleans in January.” And while I’m not ruling out a trip by the Wisconsin Badgers to the Big Easy at some point in January, it certainly won’t be for the BCS National Championship. Unless they buy some tickets.
Back in September, I wrote that Oklahoma, “They’re a veteran group who is ready for the big time…” Apparently though, they’re not ready for a weather delay and a Texas Tech team who lost to Iowa State by 34 at home on Saturday.
Back in September, I didn’t write much about Alabama, save for a comment that it was “highly possible” that Arkansas could beat them. Arkansas lost 38-14.
Back in September, I wrote that Oklahoma State would lose to Texas A&M. They almost did. Since then, they’ve been unstoppable.
Back in September, I wrote that USC had looked “wholly beatable” to that point. And while they had, they sure looked like a top 10 team on Saturday night against Stanford.
In short, I really do know what I’m talking about. I promise this is true. I watch a lot of college football. I know my stuff. I’m just not terribly good at predicting my stuff.
But that hasn’t stopped me before….
This Saturday brings us the Game of the Century and what boils down to a National Semifinal (or perhaps the actual championship game). #1 LSU at #2 Alabama. The nation’s 3rd ranked defense at the nation’s top ranked defense. The nation’s 12th ranked offense at the nation’s 11th ranked offense. The nation’s top defensive player at the nation’s best running back. Two coaches with national championships. LSU’s current coach at LSU’s former coach. Over 100,000 people dressed in crimson and about 5,000 in purple. If you’d like to go, the cheapest of back-row end zone seats will run you $400 each. That’s in a stadium that seats about 107,000 people. If you’d like to sit on the 50-yard line, you might have to cancel little Jimmy’s college future. Truthfully, a decent seat is going to run you about $1000.
If you watch one college football game this year, watch this one. It’s rare that the regular season brings us a true 1 vs. 2 matchup. No matter who you think is better (my opinion in a moment) this is unquestionably a battle between the two best teams in the nation and perhaps the two best teams in a number of years. 8 p.m. this Saturday on your local CBS affiliate. If you’re unsure as to what the deal is with college football, you likely live in the northeast. You’re also likely not surrounded by very good college football. If you like pageantry, theater, plot twists, suspense, agony and ecstasy, do yourself a favor and empty out your date book this Saturday night. Mine has been empty for quite some time.
Right now, Alabama sits as a 5 point favorite in this game. This is a ludicrous line that should be closer to 2.5. I’d set it at 3. At the most. Both teams are essentially equals. Punishing defenses on both sides of the ball, populated by athletes you’ll be seeing in the NFL very soon. Some of whom would be NFL stars now. Alabama’s rushing offense is exceptional. LSU’s quarterback play is superior to Alabama’s. Sort of. In short, I think the offenses are a wash. This game will be won or lost on the defensive side of the ball. And because of that, I like LSU to win this game. Their ability to get to the ball and make game changing plays will define this game. I expect Alabama QB AJ McCarron to have a world of trouble with LSU’s front four. And if he can get past the front four, the back seven won’t be kind either. I like LSU to win the game 17-13. Every so often, one of these obvious defensive games winds up being an offensive shootout. Kind of like the bizarro version of last year’s BCS title game. This won’t be that. I see little way that this game won’t be the marquee, must-watch game that we’ve been waiting for. And if you’re looking for a player to watch, I’ll give you two. One, Tyrann Mathieu (aka The Honey Badger) is a Heisman candidate from the LSU secondary. His ability to get to the ball and make plays is astounding. And if you like absolute freaks of nature (in a good way) look no further than LSU defensive lineman Barkevious Mingo. Mingo is 6’5″. He weighs 240 LBS. He runs a 4.4 40-yard dash. Those numbers are correct. And both guys are true Sophomores.
My (Just Past Mid-Season) Power Rankings:
5. Boise State
Even I’m having a hard time making the argument for the Broncos this year. That schedule is nothing short of horrid with most of their games on Versus. And it’s made much worse when Boise struggles to beat a mediocre Air Force Academy. That said, the Broncos still possess a great defense and the nation’s second best college QB. And a brilliant coach. But I fear that if Boise is able to get to New Orleans, they might not be ready for it after a year of playing the Wyomings and UNLVs of the world.
4. Oklahoma State
I’m just very nervous that they’ll slip up against someone before the Bedlam Game (vs. Oklahoma in early December). If I had to guess, I’d go with the game at Iowa State on the 18th. A late Friday kickoff (9:00 eastern). The game before the biggest game in Oklahoma State history. Iowa State has been pesky and has gotten up for big games (see: the Iowa upset. Also: the beating they put on Texas Tech). I’m not quite a believer, as impressive as they’ve been. The offense is flawless. I wonder how long their defense can keep up the pace though.
3. Stanford
I’m a believer and they’ve been impressive. I’ll take a close win, on the road, against a really good football team over a blowout of a cupcake at home (I’m looking at you, OK State). To the people who said that Andrew Luck wasn’t impressive because he threw an interception, perhaps they should reevaluate their criteria for “Great QBs.” He was masterful in leading the Cardinal back at the end of regulation and in dismantling USC’s defense in OT. Each time I watch him play I fall in love again. And yes, there are other players on Stanford’s roster, but I assure you, if Andrew Luck wasn’t playing QB, they’d be a 4-4 team. Okay, with that schedule, maybe a 6-2 team.
1a. Alabama
I doubted them earlier in the season by excluding them from the top 5. That was a heinous oversight.
1. LSU
I doubted them in saying that West Virginia would upset them. That was a very heinous prediction.
But I promise you, I know what I’m talking about….
Mid-Atlantic Bias 