I’ve been wracking my brain trying to think of blog ideas. My head is filled with frameworks. There’s a non-sports idea in there trying to examine why we, as people, live where we live. There’s a baseball hot stove post up there. There’s a Greg Stiemsma post. There was a BCS National Championship preview (though I was less excited about that because I had already written at length about those teams).
Today, though, because we’re at about the halfway mark in the season, you get some college basketball. A little more analysis on the front-end as I try to highlight a few teams who aren’t getting the pub I think they deserve.
What follows is how I rank college basketball’s best 10, so far in 2011-12. This has less to do with where I think they’ll end up than where I think they are today.
10. UNLV (14-2, Strength of Schedule (SOS): 60, 2-2 vs. Top 25)
Losses to Wisconsin and Wichita State. Wins over Illinois and North Carolina. The Wisconsin loss makes sense because they’re a matchup problem for most teams if they can dictate the tempo. If you can play slow against Wisconsin, you’re probably going to win. If you only know one speed (fast), you’re going to have to make the Badgers run. If you don’t, they’ll lull you to death. Or, if I’m being less dramatic, defeat.
UNLV’s win over North Carolina was not some sort of aberration. The analysts said, “Well, UNLV was playing in their backyard (the game was on a neutral court in Las Vegas. The “LV” in “UNLV” stands for “Las Vegas.”).” My response? So what! So the Tar Heels played on the road against the Rebels. They lost. Convincingly. Even more convincingly than the 10 point difference.
To the average college fan, the loss to Wichita State might seem like a red flag. That’s because the average fan doesn’t know how good the Wichita State Shockers are. 12-3 overall. Losses to Temple, Alabama, and the 11th best team in the country, the Creighton Blue Jays. Currently ranked 24th in Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings. Only two teams in the top 10 have a better strength of schedule than the Shockers.
UNLV is here because they do everything, offensively, well. They’re in the top 31 in the nation in field goal shooting, points per game, rebounds, and assists per game. They’re efficient and effective, led by Chase Stanbeck (shooting 46% from 3) and Mike Moser, each averaging over 14 points per game.
Biggest remaining game of the season: This Saturday at San Diego State. A win in front of “The Show” at Viejas Arena should very well catapult the Rebels into the real-life Top 10. San Diego State is just as for real as the Rebels. I expect the Aztecs to win the home tilt. Still, I think UNLV has a chance to be an Elite 8 team this year. With the talent they have, anything short of the Sweet 16 will be a disappointment.
9. Kansas (12-3, SOS: 10, 3-2 vs. Top 25)
The losses came to Davidson, Kentucky, and Duke. Which one is not like the others? The Davidson loss is an outlier. Each team is going to have one of those nights in the course of a season. The Kentucky and Duke losses, well, those make sense.
What puts Kansas in this list is a victory against Ohio State. Second tier wins against Long Beach State, Kansas State, and Georgetown are nice too. Kansas does nothing particularly well. Their offense is perfectly middle-of-the-pack. So is their defense. This is a team that will get by on talent. As long as Tyshawn Taylor, their often troubled, sharp-shooting guard (44% from 3) stays out of trouble, Kansas can find itself in the Final Four.
Biggest remaining game of the season: Monday January 16, at home, against Baylor. This will be the game of January, on paper. Kansas needs to win at home. They’ll play again in February in Waco. Until then, a win against an undefeated Baylor team will give the Jayhawks a lot of momentum and vocal support.
8. Michigan State (14-2, SOS: 40, 3-2 vs. Top 25)
Michigan State lost their first two games of the season, to North Carolina (on a boat) and on a neutral court against Duke. Since then, they’ve lost to no one.
The Spartans were (and in a lot of ways, remain) an unproven commodity. The players are fairly nameless, outside of Draymond Green. The coach though, is not. Tom Izzo was able to keep a young team on track after their season began with two consecutive losses. Since the Duke game, the Spartans have beaten Gonzaga in Spokane, Indiana in East Lansing, and Wisconsin in Madison. They’ve also gotten strong off of the likes of Central Connecticut State, Missouri-Kansas City, and Bowling Green. But sometimes the most dangerous thing for a young team (or at least for their opponents) is to taste victory. Once you get the flavor of victory on your tongue, it’s hard to get it off. Right now, the Spartans have that taste. And no one has taken it off since November 15.
Biggest remaining game of the season: February 11, at Ohio State. We’ll find out if they’re for real then. Columbus isn’t an easy place to win. But if the Spartans still haven’t tasted defeat, well, that could be a big game for both teams.
7. Indiana (15-1, SOS: 125, 2-1 vs. Top 25)
I’ve watched no team this season more than the Hoosiers. And I’ve loved what I’ve seen.
If not for the loss at Michigan State, the Hoosiers would be the number 1 team in the country. A buzzer beater win over Kentucky put IU back in the national spotlight. A New Years Eve win over Ohio State helped some people forget about that loss to the Spartans.
Part of the issue for Indiana is that no one knows any of their players. The program has been so far off the radar for the last few seasons. But it appears that while no one was paying attention, Tom Crean was building a powerhouse out of 4 and 5 star recruits.
The Hoosiers’ calling card is their offense. 8th in the country in scoring per game. No team shoots it better from 3. And the Hoosiers have one of the best on-ball defenders in college basketball in Victor Oladipo.
The downfall of IU will come off the glass. If they have an off shooting night, they will lose. Plain and simple. The Hoosiers are a subpar rebounding team with a fair amount of size, but not a ton of physicality down low. Indiana played near perfect games against Ohio State and Kentucky. Anything less than perfect and the Buckeyes or Wildcats would have won.
If IU can play perfect basketball for two weeks (past the Round of 32) I think they can win the National Championship. They’re really good. I look forward to seeing them hit the road in the Big 10. That’s when we’ll see if this team really can get to NOLA.
Biggest remaining game of the season: January 15, at Ohio State. The Buckeyes will get redemption. What’s going to matter after that game is how the Hoosiers bounce back.
6. Duke (13-2, SOS: 6, 2-1 vs. Top 25)
The losses were to Ohio State in Columbus (in blowout fashion) and at Temple last week.
There’s really no need to talk about Duke at length. They’ll go as far as they can without being able to rebound. The moment they run into a physical, rebounding team (North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan State, Kansas State), they’ll go down. For Duke, their success in March will be about their draw. If they have a Sweet 16 matchup against Kansas State, look out.
Biggest remaining game of the season: March 3 vs. North Carolina. I fully expect the Devils to lose in Chapel Hill. That’s expected. A loss at home though will prove the hypothesis, that this team isn’t tough enough, true.
5. Baylor (14-0, SOS: 172, 1-0 vs. Top 25)
That one victory was against Saint Mary’s. They’ve also beaten West Virginia and San Diego State. These are all good teams, but these aren’t wins like UNLV’s against North Carolina or Indiana’s against Ohio State and Kentucky.
Baylor is only here because they’re undefeated. They haven’t had to play any tough road games, save for a trip to Provo (and they needed a buzzer beater to knock off the Cougars). Baylor has played like the richer man’s Kansas. They’re a team with a ton of talent, but they’re not great at anything. They’re long and athletic. But they’re not big and physical. They’re not necessarily quick. There aren’t a lot of great ball handlers. They’re slashers. They’re the sort of team that has to constantly dictate tempo to get where they want to go. And I don’t see that lasting for a while. But it’s hard to argue with undefeated.
(As a sidebar, Murray State is also undefeated. They have played a weaker schedule than Baylor’s 172nd. The Racers have a legitimate shot at an undefeated regular season, but I don’t think they’re anything more than a possible Sweet 16 team. And even that might be a stretch.)
Biggest remaining game of the season: The next one. Which happens to be tonight at Kansas State. The same Wildcats team who just knocked off the undefeated Missouri Tigers. If Baylor wins that game, the next one will remain the biggest. Can Baylor get to the Final Four? Yes. But anyone can do that. VCU did it last year. Do I think Baylor will get to the Final Four? No. I think they slip up in the second round of the tournament. Their a team that can be beaten who just hasn’t been yet. That will come.
4. Syracuse (17-0, SOS: 92, 2-0 vs. Top 25)
Much like with Baylor, I don’t buy the undefeated start. The Orange beat Florida (at home) by 4 and Marquette (at home) by 7. Those are by far their best victories. They’ve played 3 games on the road all season. This is a team that will likely finish the year with only 2 or 3 losses and will receive a number 1 seed. But you’re kidding yourself if you think they have the talent to get to New Orleans. They don’t. I’m not buying a team from the Big East who can’t rebound.
Biggest remaining game of the season: Much like Baylor, it’s always going to be the next one. Syracuse’s next one is Wednesday at Villanova.
3. North Carolina (14-2, SOS: 196, 2-2 vs. Top 25)
2. Ohio State (15-2, SOS: 156, 1-2 vs. Top 25)
1. Kentucky (15-1, SOS: 224, 3-1 vs. Top 25)
I’m grouping these three together because their numbers for the season are so similar. They’re all playing week schedules. They’ve all lost at least 1 game. The Wildcats are my number one team for a few reasons. Their only loss was on the road, to a top 10 team, at the buzzer. And they beat Carolina. And they have the best interior defense in the country. And the best freshman in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
The Buckeyes find themselves ahead of the Tar Heels because of the dreaded eye test. I’ve liked watching Ohio State more than Carolina. They look like the better team when they’re at their best. The numbers don’t back that up at all. North Carolina has the number one offense in the country. They’re coached by Roy Williams. They’re littered with stars. Ohio State plays good defense, shoots well, and passes well, but that’s it really. They’re Jared Sullinger (who has found himself injured twice this season) and some really good players, but no real stars outside of him. They’re coached by Thad Matta, a marvelous recruiter, but a guy who’s never won a title. And Ohio State has the tougher schedule of the two. So call it a limb, but it’s one that I’m willing to go out on. And I’m willing to shift my preseason pick. For now, I’ll take Kentucky over Ohio State in the title game. But I’m allowed to change that at the 3/4 mark of the season.
I think CUSE is better than you think. They play 8 or 9 sometimex 10 deep depending on the game. No one is getting tired on the bench or starters. Although with loseing Fab Melo they are not as dominate as a team. If they get Melo back they will easily walk deep into the NCAA tournament.