It’s BracketBusters day. The day invented by ESPN that takes the country’s best below the radar mid-major teams and has them play non-conference games against each other in front of a national TV audience. Dick Vitale will be in Murray, Kentucky tomorrow. And you should be too. At least on your TV. Here are the 5 games you really should watch if you care about these things (in order of time)

Valparaiso at Loyola Marymount (tonight actually….9 p.m./ESPNU)

-Valpo find itself in first place in the Horizon League behind first year head coach Bryce Drew. Loyola is far on the outside looking in when it comes to the tournament. But Loyola has proven itself to be a bit of a giant killer this year, knocking off UCLA and St. Louis in non-conference play and, inexplicably, winning in Provo and Moraga, places where no one wins a road game. The problem for Loyola is that they’re actually not that good. They’ve lost home games to Columbia, North Texas, and Morgan State. But they’re playing their best basketball of the season right now. I’m picking LMU in an upset.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 15%

Wichita State at Davidson (tomorrow….12 p.m./ESPN2)

-This very well might be the best game on the schedule for Bracket Busters, which was not the case when the schedule dropped a few weeks ago. Wichita is hot. They’re coming off a blowout win over Creighton and have lost only 1 game since January 1 (a triple overtime road defeat). Davidson, playing under the radar (Steph Curry isn’t walking through that door), leads the Southern Conference and has lost only twice since Christmas. The two teams are very evenly matched statistically, save for the Shockers (that’s Wichita State) field goal shooting (49% to 45%….it sounds small, but that’s a big difference in team field goal shooting). This is a Shockers team playing as well as anyone in America right now. I fully expect them to win a tight one tomorrow.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 35%

Nevada at Iona (tomorrow…4 p.m./ESPN2)

-They’re a combined 43-10 on the season. Nevada has one loss since November 26. They feature a balanced attack and a solid rotation. Iona is 2nd in the country in scoring, 1st in assists, and 6th in field goal shooting. They’ve had a rougher time of their conference schedule than the Wolfpack, with 3 losses. They also have a very hot Loyola (MD) on their heels. Iona’s Scott Machado, averaging 10 assists per game (leading the nation) is the player to watch. He dictates the pace. And it’s a pace that Nevada hasn’t seen in WAC play. I think the time change, and the game speed, give Nevada their second loss since December started.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 50%…but it should be higher. If I were single, it would be 100%. That’s not a complaint. Trust me.

Saint Mary’s at Murray State (tomorrow….6 p.m./ESPN)

-No one thought this game was going to mean more than exposure. But with both teams coming off of recent tough-to-explain losses to Loyola Marymount and Tennessee State, respectively, a loss here is going to do some damage to the at-large bid candidacy of each. Saint Mary’s can afford the loss more than Murray State, because the Gaels play in a conference with two other very good teams (Gonzaga and BYU) while Murray State plays SIU-Edwardsville and Tennessee-Martin. A loss to Saint Mary’s and another regular season loss, coupled with a conference tournament loss and I can make an argument that the team with the 306th (out of 339) most difficult schedule shouldn’t be in the tournament even with a 26-4 record. The matchup to watch here is between Matthew Dellavedova, Saint Mary’s sharp-shooting Australian Point Guard and Isiah Canaan, Murray State’s do everything. sharp shooting guard. If Canaan is off, like he was in the loss to Tennessee State, the Racers have no shot at beating a really good Saint Mary’s team. And even if he does have a great night, Saint Mary’s size will hurt the Racers. I like Saint Mary’s and I don’t think it will be all that close.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 95%

Long Beach State at Creighton (tomorrow….10 p.m./ESPN2)

If Wichita and Davidson isn’t the best game, this one is. Amanda jokingly refers to Long Beach State as the best basketball team ever because one night, I talked at her for five minutes straight about them. The 49ers played a preposterously difficult non-conference schedule with games at Pittsburgh, San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina, and (for good measure) neutral-site games (in Hawaii) against Xavier and Kansas State. And while they only won two of them, it wasn’t for lack of trying. They took Kansas and North Carolina (in the same week) down to the final minutes, losing by 8 and 6 respectively. Since conference play started, they’ve lost to no one. Creighton, the country’s best shooting team, did not play a murderer’s row schedule and their 22-5 record shows that. The Blue Jays play in the much tougher Missouri Valley Conference and have to compete with the aforementioned Shockers of Wichita State. And they come in reeling, having lost 3 of their last 4 games, after starting the year 21-2. The Blue Jays are led by Doug McDermott who looks exactly like you’d expect a basketball player in Omaha to look. But McDermott is for real, averaging 23/8 (pts/rbds) per game. The Blue Jays need a win desperately, regardless of what Wichita State does. What once seemed like a lock is no longer such. For Long Beach State, a loss here isn’t the worst thing in the world, because I fully expect them to run the table and win the Big West. My heart says Long Beach, but my head says Creighton, so I’ll take the Blue Jays in a very close game.

Chances That I Watch This Game: 5%….This would be 100%, but I have a colleague who is having a going-away party tomorrow night, and the 10 p.m. start time is much too late for me to watch the game and then go out. I’m not young. Nor have I ever been.