There are, as they say, many ways to skin a cat. I’ve never been an advocate of cat skinning. I am, however, an advocate for baseball.
There are a number of different ways I can tell you who I think will (but ultimately will not) because when am I ever right about these things? win the World Series, who I think will (but ultimately will not) win the AL Rookie of the Year., ad who I think will (but ultimately will not) be the most exciting team to watch in 2012.
First, some musings:
-I can’t really remember an offseason with as much major movement as this one. 9 of last year’s Major League All-Stars changed uniforms this offseason. And Albert Pujols wasn’t even an all-star.
-Everything seems to be going smoothly in Boston, right?
-The Miami Marlins are going to be a joy of unintentional comedy this year. If anyone out there believes that Hanley Ramirez is happy at third base, that Jose Reyes is going to stay healthy, that Heath Bell is not going to do what most closers who sign big contracts do, that Ozzie Guillen won’t get into public spats with the Marlins front office, that Josh Johnson will stay healthy for an entire year, that people will go their new ballpark with the silly home run prop, that Logan Morrison won’t continue to be a thorn in the front office’s side, etc. then I have a fancy fountain tin my possession thatwill totally make you live forever.
-Sliced bread is the best thing since Jose Canseco joined Twitter.
-People seem to be really high on the Angels. Remind me, who’s playing in their outfield? Oh, some combination of Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Peter Bourjos, and a $22 million lawn gnome named Vernon Wells? Well, at least they have Alberto Callaspo, JMark Trumbo and Erick Aybar as regulars too.
-Why is Bobby Valentine so tan?
-Am I the only person who likes Mike Stanton more now that his name is Giancarlo Stanton?
Phew, now that that’s off my chest, how about some division predictions. ets’ start with the National League.
NL EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets
There are a number of different ways I can tell you who I think will (but ultimately will not) because when am I ever right about these things? win the World Series, who I think will (but ultimately will not) win the AL Rookie of the Year., ad who I think will (but ultimately will not) be the most exciting team to watch in 2012.
First, some musings:
-I can’t really remember an offseason with as much major movement as this one. 9 of last year’s Major League All-Stars changed uniforms this offseason. And Albert Pujols wasn’t even an all-star.
-Everything seems to be going smoothly in Boston, right?
-The Miami Marlins are going to be a joy of unintentional comedy this year. If anyone out there believes that Hanley Ramirez is happy at third base, that Jose Reyes is going to stay healthy, that Heath Bell is not going to do what most closers who sign big contracts do, that Ozzie Guillen won’t get into public spats with the Marlins front office, that Josh Johnson will stay healthy for an entire year, that people will go their new ballpark with the silly home run prop, that Logan Morrison won’t continue to be a thorn in the front office’s side, etc. then I have a fancy fountain tin my possession thatwill totally make you live forever.
-Sliced bread is the best thing since Jose Canseco joined Twitter.
-People seem to be really high on the Angels. Remind me, who’s playing in their outfield? Oh, some combination of Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Peter Bourjos, and a $22 million lawn gnome named Vernon Wells? Well, at least they have Alberto Callaspo, JMark Trumbo and Erick Aybar as regulars too.
-Why is Bobby Valentine so tan?
-Am I the only person who likes Mike Stanton more now that his name is Giancarlo Stanton?
Phew, now that that’s off my chest, how about some division predictions. ets’ start with the National League.
NL EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Washington Nationals
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets
Outlook: I’ve wavered on just how high I should be on the Washington Nationals. At times I’ve thought they should be the favorite in the NL. Other times, I’ve thought that they could still have a subpar year. The rotation concerns me less than the offense, but there’s some concern there. The Nationals added Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson in the offseason. They’re huge upgrades over Livan Hernandez and whatever replacement player they had in last year’s awful rotation. But Gio and Jackson bring two big question marks with them. No one walks more hitters than Gio ,and Edwin is fairly fond of baserunners. himself Gio has thrown 200+ innings each of the last two seasons, but he’s also walked over 90 hitters, finishing each year with a WHIP of 1.31. Jackson has also thrown 200 + innings over the past two season (well, 199.2 last year, but let’s round up) and while his walks are well south of Gio’s, his hits allowed are not. WHIPs of 1.40 and 1.43 aren’t going to get it done. Especially when you consider that Livan’s WHIPs over the previous two season aw re1.32 and 1.39.
I expect the move to the NL to favor Gonzalez, regardless of park. He’s a strikeout pitcher facing markedly weaker lineups. Yes he won’t be playing in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum (or whatever it’s being called today), but he also won’t be facing the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Toronto Blue Jays very often.
Edwin Jackson just is what he is.
There could be (and will be) more on the Nats throughout the season. I think they’ll be the most exciting team to watch because of Strasburg, the imminent arrival of Bryce Harper, and the most excited fan base they’ve seen since the move to DC. Add to that the Jayson Werth Redemption Tour, Michael Morse playing the role of crazy guy from college, perhaps the best bullpen in baseball, and an amusing old manager with a flair for dry humor and you’ve got a compelling team. That said, there are 29 other teams and I would like to talk about a few.
As for the rest of the division, I think Philadelphia has enough pitching to hang on to the division, if not barely. The Braves are no slouch. Many people looked at the Braves after last season’s debacle and forgot they existed. This is still a good team. Their rotation issues (the health of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson) will be an achilles heel for the Braves. They need Brandon Beachy, of all people, to be the ace that no one thinks he’s capable of being. And whereas Philly’s pitching can make up for its meager hitting, the Braves hitting is not good enough to make up for its pitching.
Per my musings from earlier, I doubt that the Marlins can be a successful experiment. They’ll be an entertaining experiment, but they won’t be “good.” The pieces are there, but I do believe in chemistry in baseball, at least to a certain extent. I doubt Miami’s ability to develop it. And I also doubt in their rotation. The health of Josh Johnson is key. If he misses any time, the Marlins will miss the playoffs.
The Mets are a baseball team. They play in Flushing, Queens. Queens is a borough in New York. New York pizza. Pizza pizza. Little Caesars. Crazy bread. Crazy Train. Ozzy Osbourne. Tom Osbourne. Tom Seaver. ‘86 Mets. Better days.
NL CENTRAL
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros
Outlook: So, nothing peculiar here, right?
Look, I realize that I’m probably going to be a little bit wrong here. But no one likes chalk. If I had the Cardinals in the top slot, you’d likely glaze right over this spot. But a shocking and fearless division title for the Pirates? I just stopped you dead in your tracks, didn’t I?
The Pirates added AJ Burnett (currently recovering from smashing his own face in with his bunting skills) and Erik Bedard (currently recovering from whatever injury he has this week) to their rotation. They will join Kevin Correia, Jeff Karstens, and (likely) James McDonald. Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton would provide rotation depth. And a team with AJ Burnett and Erik Bedard would likely need that.
Outside of the two additions to the rotation and Clint Barmes at SS, this is the same team who captured America’s hearts for the first two months last season before destructing under the weight of their own success and reverting back to Pirates Baseball.
But this year will be different. Andrew McCutchen will be an MVP candidate. Pedro Alvarez will begin to develop into the hitter the Pirates expected him to be, before they rushed him to the big leagues. Their patchwork bullpen of no-names, outside of Joel Hanrahan, will close the door. And PNC Park will be full.
And if all of that rosy stuff doesn’t happen, I like the Brewers’ strong rotation of Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum to keep a team with a giant offensive hole, in a lot of games. Milwaukee won’t be the offensive juggernaut they were last year (5th in runs scored/1st in HR in the National League). You can’t really be a juggernaut when you replace Prince Fielder with, well, a replacement player. And that’s what Mat Gamel is. Add to that injury concerns with Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, who is recovering from knee surgery and you’re unlikely to see a lot of 11-7 games at Miller Park this year. But the Brewers can pitch. And in a division like this one, that’ll be enough.
Logic would have the St. Louis Cardinals in the catbird seat. But blind hatred of the team, even with Tony LaRussa gone, limits my ability to predict good things for them. I’m not in love with their rotation or bullpen. I don’t really believe there’s enough depth or consistency in the ‘pen and one would have to be a little concerned with Adam Wainwright coming back from Tommy John surgery, while Chris Carpenter was out with a mysterious neck injury. Case in point…Kyle Lohse is their opening day starter.
At the other end of the “Jason Botelho” dislike range sit the Cincinnati Reds. I like the Reds. That is to say, I don’t openly root against the Reds and they have players who I like. Joey Votto. Brandon Phillips. Jay Bruce. Drew Stubbs (for no apparent reason). Heck, in the offseason, they added another “Jason guy” in Mat Latos. The fourth place finish has less to do with the players and more to do with Dusty Baker, the ruiner of pitchers. Dusty’s goal, stated or unstated, is to overwork every pitcher on his staff. Perhaps that explains why the Reds acquired Utilityman and former pitching star Wilson Valdez in the offseason. There may be so few guys left at the end of the season. And in a relatively short rotation (I’ll give each reader $100 if Aroldis Chapman pitches 150 innings this season…how’s that starting pitcher experiment going?), I don’t like a Dusty Baker managed team al that much.
Instead of talking about the Cubs and Astros, here’s a list of things I’d rather watch than a Cubs/Astros game:
-The minor league affiliates of the Cubs and Astros.
-The Real Housewives of Biloxi
-Watch What Happens Live
-The Dish
-The Soup
-The Complete Rebecca Black videography.
-An Ashley Judd movie
-That scene from NYPD Blue when you see Andy Sipowitz’s butt
-Re-runs of The Weakest Link
-Fox and Friends
-Cats vomiting
Meanness aside, there’s no real reason to watch either of these teams. The Astros’ agenda appears to be losing with really bad players in the hopes that they can develop some top draft picks into something worth keeping. The Cubs agenda involves bringing in Theo Epstein to save the day. Meanwhile, their best player is a 22 year old shortstop who can’t get on base at even a mediocre clip.
NL WEST
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Colorado Rockies
Outlook: I’m starting in reverse order here. The Rockies have the game’s best shortstop and a left fielder with hilarious home/road splits. Then there’s 23 other guys. The rotation is anchored by Jeremy Guthrie. And he’s the clear cut ace. The closer? Rafael Betancourt. And the manager? Baseball’s worst in-game savant (that’d be Jim Tracy). This will be a long year for the Rockies, especially for Troy Tulowitzki, who deserves better than this.
The Dodgers’ infield is sort of like a practical joke. James Loney, Mark Ellis, Dee Gordon, and Juan Uribe. That’s their infield. No typos there. I’m not sure that, combined, they’ll hit 20 home runs this season. Last year, Matt Kemp was a HR away from a 40/40 season, with 100 runs scored and 100 runs driven in, while getting on base 40% of the time (and yet he didn’t win the MVP….astounding). Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young. And yet this team was terrible. And thanks to Frank McCourt’s personal life being in shambles, this year’s model looks a lot like last year’s. That’s not a good thing.
The Padres in third is a surprise to some, but I see a team that makes some sort of sense here. Pitching in Petco does not mean that you need to have a staff of future Hall-of-Famers. And the Fathers do not. Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, and Dustin Mosley aren’t going to win any beauty contests. But they don’t have to. For San Diego, it’s about offense and they improved that in the offseason, adding Yonder Alonso and Carlos Quentin. Add to that the continued development of Cameron Maybin and you’ve got a decent nucleus. Add to that a solid bullpen and you’ve got a pretty average baseball team. And in the NL West, average will get you third place.
This division is always unpredictable. In fact, the only predictable thing about the West is its unpredictability. No one expected the Diamondbacks to contend last year (except for me…unfortunately, I tweeted my MLB preview last year and I’ll be darned if I’m going to back through a year’s worth of tweets to prove a fact), but they won the division. So maybe I’m being foolish for predicting a repeat winner. But top to bottom, I like Arizona more than San Francisco. The Giants have a better rotation, but the difference is shrinking. In fact, let’s rank the pitchers from each staff:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Ian Kennedy
4. Madison Bumgarner
5. Daniel Hudson
6. Trevor Cahill
7. Josh Collmenter
8. Ryan Vogelsong
And then Barry Zito and Joe Saunders. Or something.
Now, add in Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs and you’ve got something completely different. Despite not having pitched in the Majors, I’d put Bauer ahead of Bumgarner based on potential. Skaggs I would slot, based on his potential, between Bumgarner and Hudson.The Giants are undoubtedly better at the top, but I like Arizona’s middle. Especially with Bauer and Skaggs in the mix.
Offensively, this isn’t a contest. The Giants are still the Giants. Brandon Crawford, Melky Cabrera, and Nate Schierholtz will see regular playing time. And even with Buster Posey back, I have to imagine it’ll take him a little bit of time to get back into a groove.
Playoffs
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card 1: Giants
NL Wild Card 2: Braves
Giants beat Braves in playoff game.
Giants beat Phillies in one series.
Diamondbacks beat Pirates in the other.
NLCS: Giants beat Arizona in 7, behind 3 starts from Tim Lincecum. I don’t think the offense is there, but this is a Giants team that is made for the postseason. I’ve read lots of stories about how the extra wild card favors the Nationals. To me, it favors the teams who are better in a tournament than the regular season. For Washington, Stephen Strasburg will be done pitching by August. For San Francisco, if all goes well, their rotation shrinks to four guys. And when you’re maximizing starts for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, that’s a good thing. And it can make up for any offensive shortcomings you may have. If you don’t believe me, ask the 2010 Giants.
And now, on to the American League…
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
Outlook: And it’s not really that close.
The Yankees are much better than the Rays and Jays. The Yankees have pitching depth. They don’t have a single significant hole in the lineup. They might have baseball’s best 7th, 8th, and 9th inning trio. There’s just not a lot to complain about in the Bronx. The key for the Yankees will be A-Rod. If Rodriguez can bounce back to his usual 30+ HR form, he’ll be able to make up for the Yankees only “shortcoming” (weakness at the DH spot). He says he’s healthy. If he is, that could be a bad thing for AL parity.
Tampa Bay will go as far as their pitching will take them. The offense is not good enough to make a (positive) difference for them. And few teams can match the rotation of Shields, Price, Hellickson, Moore, and Niemann. Add to that a bullpen that should be solid and the Rays pitching should keep them around. And once October comes, much like the Giants, they can be dangerous. What will limit them though is any limitation on Matt Moore’s innings count.
I like Toronto more than Boston because of their offense, which is just a step behind the Yankees in this division. Eric Thames is a bit of a hole in left field and Adam Lind’s inconsistency is a concern, but elsewhere, the Jays look to be solid positionally (Yunel Escobar) to dynamic (Jose Bautista). And there’s a world of potential in Brett Lawrie at 3B and Colby Rasmus in CF.
Toronto’s starting rotation will keep them away from contending for the division title. There have to be concerns with the health of 5th starter Dustin McGowan. And in his still relatively short ML Career, Brett Cecil has shown little that would convince you that he was a solid #3 starter. If the Blue Jays can add a true #3 starter, to put behind Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, they will contend. But #3 starters generally aren’t just hanging around.
Fried Chicken and beer. Fried Chicken and beer. Bobby Valentine. Fried Chicken and beer.
The Red Sox will be closer to the Orioles than they will the Blue Jays. Adrian Gozalez is the surest thing in the lineup. Which is certainly not a bad thing. But who else is a sure thing? You can pencil in Dustin Pedroia, but Pedroia is not a star. His ceiling is not as high as Jacoby Ellsbury’s. But Jacoby is always a tweaked rib away from a 60-day DL stint (yes, I’m calling him soft). Kevin Youkilis appear to be in a steep downturn. And then there’s the rest of the team. Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mike Aviles, Nick Punto. I mean, are we trying to start the replacement player all-star team?
And then if you want to talk starting rotation, you’ve got to be concerned about Clay Buchholz’s ability to stay healthy because the guys behind him are Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard who is being converted back into a starting pitcher. But don’t worry, Red Sox fans…Daisuke Matsuzaka is on the mend!
It’s not worth making fun of the Baltimore Orioles. Their offense is not terrible. It’s not great. But it’s not the worst in the AL by a long shot. Markakis, Jones, Reynolds, they all have roles. And Matt Wieters might eventually become what he was supposed to. No, the Orioles pitching is the problem. And a huge problem. It’s awful. Jake Arietta, who is a perfectly okay pitcher, will probably be their Opening Day starter. 2012 could be a very long year in Charm City.
Maybe the Red Sox won’t actually be closer to the Orioles than the Blue Jays…
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago White Sox
Outlook: I’m losing my desire to write a lot. We’re at 3,000 words right now. You’re probably losing interest. And the AL Central isn’t going to help you get more excited, unfortunately.
The Detroit Tigers are the best team in this division. They’re the best by a huge margin. Kansas City is in second place here by default. Every other team is so fatally flawed that I would be shocked if the Tigers don’t win this division, which is a shame because they’re not as good as the Yankees or two AL West teams (don’t want to give away any surprises…). Fielder and Cabrera are a wonderful offensive pairing, but outside of them, I have no interest in anyone else in the lineup. I feel similarly about the pitching. Verlander is great and Fister is good, but what else do we have besides another year of the unfulfilled hope and promise of Max Scherzer? Not much.
The Royals intrigue me because I like their lineup. Sure there’s a bit of an on-base problem with guys like Alcides Escobar, Jeff Francoeur, and Yuniesky Betancourt, but with Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler (whatever, I know he doesn’t hit for power, but the guy still gets on base. He hasn’t had a sub-.360 OBP since 2008. He’s good for an OPS in the mid-.800s and he doesn’t strike out that often. Lay off Butler, world.), and Mike Moustakas, who I don’t anticipate will put up numbers similar to Hosmer’s last year, but who will be an upgrade over last year’s Opening Day 3B, and current Red Sox SS, Mike Aviles. And yes, the Royals pitching is still not great. But it’s not terribly far off. If Danny Duffy can give the Royals some consistent innings and Luke Hochevar can begin to approach his long-since vanished potential, the Royals could be a .500 team, which might get them second place in this division.
FATAL FLAWS!!!!!!
Minnesota- No power.
Cleveland- No depth (case in point, Shelley Duncan might be your Opening Day LF)
Chicago- Everything, save for Paul Konerko.
NL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland Athletics
Outlook:Texas still has a better lineup than LA. By a mile. And while their pitching isn’t as solid 1-4 as LA’s, their depth is much, much better. Say Jered Weaver goes down (or Haren, Wilson, or Santana). Who is going to fill that void? Jerome Williams? Garrett Richards? Now look at Texas. If someone goes down, Scott Feldman, who had a sub-1.1. WHIP last year, can spot start. Or maybe you’d prefer Alexi Ogando? LA is one injury in the rotation away from a real problem.
“But Albert Pujols!!!!!!” you yell in an annoying voice. What’s around him? Alberto Callaspo, Mark Trumbo, Erick Aybar, Chris Ianetta, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter? I mean, really? That’s what we’re all revved up about? A bunch of guys who couldn’t get on base if you gave them a map, a canteen, and a Nepalese sherpa?
GIve me Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz, Beltre, Andrus, Napoli, and (sigh) Young any day of the week. And while we’re at it, let’s not pretend that this Texas team cannot pitch. They can. And have. And will. I get that the names Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis aren’t exactly turning you on. But they’re effective pitchers. With a lineup like Texas’, they don’t need to be the Phillies.
At the bottom of the division, you have two very intriguing, if also not good, teams. The A’s are insanely terrible on paper. I’ll be surprised if they score 600 runs this season. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a worse lineup. And yet, I don’t think they’re the worst team in baseball. They can pitch. And with guys like Jarrod Parker and (to a lesser extent) Brad Peacock in the minors, they’ll continue to pitch. Brandon McCarthy’s numbers at the end of the season will surprise you. They’re not going to win 80 games, but we’re not talking about the 2003 Detroit Tigers.
The Mariners can hit a little more and have Felix Hernandez. But really, they’re just like the A’s. I expect Danny Hultzen to be called up by June, like Jarrod Parker in Oakland, thus filling the spot currently employed by a replacement player. And I have faith in the combo of Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak. Enough faith that I think they’ll win two more games than the A’s.
They’ll both be better than you think, but neither will be teams you’ll want to watch on MLB.TV.
Playoffs:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card 1: Angels
AL Wild Card 2: Rays
Angels beat Rays in playoff game.
Yankees beat Angels
Rangers beat Tigers
ALCS: Yankees over Rangers in 6, behind the pitching depth they lacked in 2010. Michael Pineda will be a key for the Yankees. If he gives them a year similar to last year’s (in Seattle), I think they’ll have the advantage over Texas. Both lineups can and will rake. The Yankees will pitch just a little better.
WORLD SERIES: Yankees over Giants in 5. The Giants simply don’t have the hitting to contend with the Yankees. And whereas in 2010, that would have been okay for the Giants, I don’t think it will be this year. New York is just too well-rounded.
AWARDS
AL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen
AL ROY: Matt Moore
NL ROY: Trevor Bauer
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Cliff Lee
And finally, I give you a list. This list will lay out the top 5 teams based on my interest in watching them play games via my MLB.TV subscription. Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles games are blacked out on MLB.TV in my area, so those two teams are not eligible. Asleep yet? Great.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (Striking similarities to Texas. A little less offense and a little less pitching. Plus Jose Bautista.)
4. Kansas City Royals (They’re a riser. The pitching is a year or two away, but I’ve enjoyed watching their offense this spring. And Eric Hosmer is going to break out in a big way this year.)
3. Texas Rangers (Just an exciting team. Long games, of course, because of the offense. But worth the time.)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (I really like their rotation and will like it even more when I can watch Trevor Bauer pitch regularly.)
1. San Francisco Giants (If there’s a better announcing duo in baseball than Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow…well, there isn’t. And with their pitching, Giants games are never a bore.)
Honorable mention goes to the Dodgers. And it has nothing to do with Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, though they’re both quite good. For me, there’s still no more enjoyable baseball experience than turning out the lights on a weeknight and settling in for a few innings with Vin Scully. It doesn’t matter who’s on the field, as long as Vin is in the booth.
Enjoy the season! Go Nats!
I expect the move to the NL to favor Gonzalez, regardless of park. He’s a strikeout pitcher facing markedly weaker lineups. Yes he won’t be playing in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum (or whatever it’s being called today), but he also won’t be facing the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Toronto Blue Jays very often.
Edwin Jackson just is what he is.
There could be (and will be) more on the Nats throughout the season. I think they’ll be the most exciting team to watch because of Strasburg, the imminent arrival of Bryce Harper, and the most excited fan base they’ve seen since the move to DC. Add to that the Jayson Werth Redemption Tour, Michael Morse playing the role of crazy guy from college, perhaps the best bullpen in baseball, and an amusing old manager with a flair for dry humor and you’ve got a compelling team. That said, there are 29 other teams and I would like to talk about a few.
As for the rest of the division, I think Philadelphia has enough pitching to hang on to the division, if not barely. The Braves are no slouch. Many people looked at the Braves after last season’s debacle and forgot they existed. This is still a good team. Their rotation issues (the health of Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson) will be an achilles heel for the Braves. They need Brandon Beachy, of all people, to be the ace that no one thinks he’s capable of being. And whereas Philly’s pitching can make up for its meager hitting, the Braves hitting is not good enough to make up for its pitching.
Per my musings from earlier, I doubt that the Marlins can be a successful experiment. They’ll be an entertaining experiment, but they won’t be “good.” The pieces are there, but I do believe in chemistry in baseball, at least to a certain extent. I doubt Miami’s ability to develop it. And I also doubt in their rotation. The health of Josh Johnson is key. If he misses any time, the Marlins will miss the playoffs.
The Mets are a baseball team. They play in Flushing, Queens. Queens is a borough in New York. New York pizza. Pizza pizza. Little Caesars. Crazy bread. Crazy Train. Ozzy Osbourne. Tom Osbourne. Tom Seaver. ‘86 Mets. Better days.
NL CENTRAL
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros
Outlook: So, nothing peculiar here, right?
Look, I realize that I’m probably going to be a little bit wrong here. But no one likes chalk. If I had the Cardinals in the top slot, you’d likely glaze right over this spot. But a shocking and fearless division title for the Pirates? I just stopped you dead in your tracks, didn’t I?
The Pirates added AJ Burnett (currently recovering from smashing his own face in with his bunting skills) and Erik Bedard (currently recovering from whatever injury he has this week) to their rotation. They will join Kevin Correia, Jeff Karstens, and (likely) James McDonald. Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton would provide rotation depth. And a team with AJ Burnett and Erik Bedard would likely need that.
Outside of the two additions to the rotation and Clint Barmes at SS, this is the same team who captured America’s hearts for the first two months last season before destructing under the weight of their own success and reverting back to Pirates Baseball.
But this year will be different. Andrew McCutchen will be an MVP candidate. Pedro Alvarez will begin to develop into the hitter the Pirates expected him to be, before they rushed him to the big leagues. Their patchwork bullpen of no-names, outside of Joel Hanrahan, will close the door. And PNC Park will be full.
And if all of that rosy stuff doesn’t happen, I like the Brewers’ strong rotation of Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum to keep a team with a giant offensive hole, in a lot of games. Milwaukee won’t be the offensive juggernaut they were last year (5th in runs scored/1st in HR in the National League). You can’t really be a juggernaut when you replace Prince Fielder with, well, a replacement player. And that’s what Mat Gamel is. Add to that injury concerns with Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, who is recovering from knee surgery and you’re unlikely to see a lot of 11-7 games at Miller Park this year. But the Brewers can pitch. And in a division like this one, that’ll be enough.
Logic would have the St. Louis Cardinals in the catbird seat. But blind hatred of the team, even with Tony LaRussa gone, limits my ability to predict good things for them. I’m not in love with their rotation or bullpen. I don’t really believe there’s enough depth or consistency in the ‘pen and one would have to be a little concerned with Adam Wainwright coming back from Tommy John surgery, while Chris Carpenter was out with a mysterious neck injury. Case in point…Kyle Lohse is their opening day starter.
At the other end of the “Jason Botelho” dislike range sit the Cincinnati Reds. I like the Reds. That is to say, I don’t openly root against the Reds and they have players who I like. Joey Votto. Brandon Phillips. Jay Bruce. Drew Stubbs (for no apparent reason). Heck, in the offseason, they added another “Jason guy” in Mat Latos. The fourth place finish has less to do with the players and more to do with Dusty Baker, the ruiner of pitchers. Dusty’s goal, stated or unstated, is to overwork every pitcher on his staff. Perhaps that explains why the Reds acquired Utilityman and former pitching star Wilson Valdez in the offseason. There may be so few guys left at the end of the season. And in a relatively short rotation (I’ll give each reader $100 if Aroldis Chapman pitches 150 innings this season…how’s that starting pitcher experiment going?), I don’t like a Dusty Baker managed team al that much.
Instead of talking about the Cubs and Astros, here’s a list of things I’d rather watch than a Cubs/Astros game:
-The minor league affiliates of the Cubs and Astros.
-The Real Housewives of Biloxi
-Watch What Happens Live
-The Dish
-The Soup
-The Complete Rebecca Black videography.
-An Ashley Judd movie
-That scene from NYPD Blue when you see Andy Sipowitz’s butt
-Re-runs of The Weakest Link
-Fox and Friends
-Cats vomiting
Meanness aside, there’s no real reason to watch either of these teams. The Astros’ agenda appears to be losing with really bad players in the hopes that they can develop some top draft picks into something worth keeping. The Cubs agenda involves bringing in Theo Epstein to save the day. Meanwhile, their best player is a 22 year old shortstop who can’t get on base at even a mediocre clip.
NL WEST
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Colorado Rockies
Outlook: I’m starting in reverse order here. The Rockies have the game’s best shortstop and a left fielder with hilarious home/road splits. Then there’s 23 other guys. The rotation is anchored by Jeremy Guthrie. And he’s the clear cut ace. The closer? Rafael Betancourt. And the manager? Baseball’s worst in-game savant (that’d be Jim Tracy). This will be a long year for the Rockies, especially for Troy Tulowitzki, who deserves better than this.
The Dodgers’ infield is sort of like a practical joke. James Loney, Mark Ellis, Dee Gordon, and Juan Uribe. That’s their infield. No typos there. I’m not sure that, combined, they’ll hit 20 home runs this season. Last year, Matt Kemp was a HR away from a 40/40 season, with 100 runs scored and 100 runs driven in, while getting on base 40% of the time (and yet he didn’t win the MVP….astounding). Clayton Kershaw won the NL Cy Young. And yet this team was terrible. And thanks to Frank McCourt’s personal life being in shambles, this year’s model looks a lot like last year’s. That’s not a good thing.
The Padres in third is a surprise to some, but I see a team that makes some sort of sense here. Pitching in Petco does not mean that you need to have a staff of future Hall-of-Famers. And the Fathers do not. Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, and Dustin Mosley aren’t going to win any beauty contests. But they don’t have to. For San Diego, it’s about offense and they improved that in the offseason, adding Yonder Alonso and Carlos Quentin. Add to that the continued development of Cameron Maybin and you’ve got a decent nucleus. Add to that a solid bullpen and you’ve got a pretty average baseball team. And in the NL West, average will get you third place.
This division is always unpredictable. In fact, the only predictable thing about the West is its unpredictability. No one expected the Diamondbacks to contend last year (except for me…unfortunately, I tweeted my MLB preview last year and I’ll be darned if I’m going to back through a year’s worth of tweets to prove a fact), but they won the division. So maybe I’m being foolish for predicting a repeat winner. But top to bottom, I like Arizona more than San Francisco. The Giants have a better rotation, but the difference is shrinking. In fact, let’s rank the pitchers from each staff:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Ian Kennedy
4. Madison Bumgarner
5. Daniel Hudson
6. Trevor Cahill
7. Josh Collmenter
8. Ryan Vogelsong
And then Barry Zito and Joe Saunders. Or something.
Now, add in Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs and you’ve got something completely different. Despite not having pitched in the Majors, I’d put Bauer ahead of Bumgarner based on potential. Skaggs I would slot, based on his potential, between Bumgarner and Hudson.The Giants are undoubtedly better at the top, but I like Arizona’s middle. Especially with Bauer and Skaggs in the mix.
Offensively, this isn’t a contest. The Giants are still the Giants. Brandon Crawford, Melky Cabrera, and Nate Schierholtz will see regular playing time. And even with Buster Posey back, I have to imagine it’ll take him a little bit of time to get back into a groove.
Playoffs
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Pirates
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card 1: Giants
NL Wild Card 2: Braves
Giants beat Braves in playoff game.
Giants beat Phillies in one series.
Diamondbacks beat Pirates in the other.
NLCS: Giants beat Arizona in 7, behind 3 starts from Tim Lincecum. I don’t think the offense is there, but this is a Giants team that is made for the postseason. I’ve read lots of stories about how the extra wild card favors the Nationals. To me, it favors the teams who are better in a tournament than the regular season. For Washington, Stephen Strasburg will be done pitching by August. For San Francisco, if all goes well, their rotation shrinks to four guys. And when you’re maximizing starts for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, that’s a good thing. And it can make up for any offensive shortcomings you may have. If you don’t believe me, ask the 2010 Giants.
And now, on to the American League…
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Baltimore Orioles
Outlook: And it’s not really that close.
The Yankees are much better than the Rays and Jays. The Yankees have pitching depth. They don’t have a single significant hole in the lineup. They might have baseball’s best 7th, 8th, and 9th inning trio. There’s just not a lot to complain about in the Bronx. The key for the Yankees will be A-Rod. If Rodriguez can bounce back to his usual 30+ HR form, he’ll be able to make up for the Yankees only “shortcoming” (weakness at the DH spot). He says he’s healthy. If he is, that could be a bad thing for AL parity.
Tampa Bay will go as far as their pitching will take them. The offense is not good enough to make a (positive) difference for them. And few teams can match the rotation of Shields, Price, Hellickson, Moore, and Niemann. Add to that a bullpen that should be solid and the Rays pitching should keep them around. And once October comes, much like the Giants, they can be dangerous. What will limit them though is any limitation on Matt Moore’s innings count.
I like Toronto more than Boston because of their offense, which is just a step behind the Yankees in this division. Eric Thames is a bit of a hole in left field and Adam Lind’s inconsistency is a concern, but elsewhere, the Jays look to be solid positionally (Yunel Escobar) to dynamic (Jose Bautista). And there’s a world of potential in Brett Lawrie at 3B and Colby Rasmus in CF.
Toronto’s starting rotation will keep them away from contending for the division title. There have to be concerns with the health of 5th starter Dustin McGowan. And in his still relatively short ML Career, Brett Cecil has shown little that would convince you that he was a solid #3 starter. If the Blue Jays can add a true #3 starter, to put behind Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, they will contend. But #3 starters generally aren’t just hanging around.
Fried Chicken and beer. Fried Chicken and beer. Bobby Valentine. Fried Chicken and beer.
The Red Sox will be closer to the Orioles than they will the Blue Jays. Adrian Gozalez is the surest thing in the lineup. Which is certainly not a bad thing. But who else is a sure thing? You can pencil in Dustin Pedroia, but Pedroia is not a star. His ceiling is not as high as Jacoby Ellsbury’s. But Jacoby is always a tweaked rib away from a 60-day DL stint (yes, I’m calling him soft). Kevin Youkilis appear to be in a steep downturn. And then there’s the rest of the team. Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mike Aviles, Nick Punto. I mean, are we trying to start the replacement player all-star team?
And then if you want to talk starting rotation, you’ve got to be concerned about Clay Buchholz’s ability to stay healthy because the guys behind him are Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard who is being converted back into a starting pitcher. But don’t worry, Red Sox fans…Daisuke Matsuzaka is on the mend!
It’s not worth making fun of the Baltimore Orioles. Their offense is not terrible. It’s not great. But it’s not the worst in the AL by a long shot. Markakis, Jones, Reynolds, they all have roles. And Matt Wieters might eventually become what he was supposed to. No, the Orioles pitching is the problem. And a huge problem. It’s awful. Jake Arietta, who is a perfectly okay pitcher, will probably be their Opening Day starter. 2012 could be a very long year in Charm City.
Maybe the Red Sox won’t actually be closer to the Orioles than the Blue Jays…
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Chicago White Sox
Outlook: I’m losing my desire to write a lot. We’re at 3,000 words right now. You’re probably losing interest. And the AL Central isn’t going to help you get more excited, unfortunately.
The Detroit Tigers are the best team in this division. They’re the best by a huge margin. Kansas City is in second place here by default. Every other team is so fatally flawed that I would be shocked if the Tigers don’t win this division, which is a shame because they’re not as good as the Yankees or two AL West teams (don’t want to give away any surprises…). Fielder and Cabrera are a wonderful offensive pairing, but outside of them, I have no interest in anyone else in the lineup. I feel similarly about the pitching. Verlander is great and Fister is good, but what else do we have besides another year of the unfulfilled hope and promise of Max Scherzer? Not much.
The Royals intrigue me because I like their lineup. Sure there’s a bit of an on-base problem with guys like Alcides Escobar, Jeff Francoeur, and Yuniesky Betancourt, but with Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler (whatever, I know he doesn’t hit for power, but the guy still gets on base. He hasn’t had a sub-.360 OBP since 2008. He’s good for an OPS in the mid-.800s and he doesn’t strike out that often. Lay off Butler, world.), and Mike Moustakas, who I don’t anticipate will put up numbers similar to Hosmer’s last year, but who will be an upgrade over last year’s Opening Day 3B, and current Red Sox SS, Mike Aviles. And yes, the Royals pitching is still not great. But it’s not terribly far off. If Danny Duffy can give the Royals some consistent innings and Luke Hochevar can begin to approach his long-since vanished potential, the Royals could be a .500 team, which might get them second place in this division.
FATAL FLAWS!!!!!!
Minnesota- No power.
Cleveland- No depth (case in point, Shelley Duncan might be your Opening Day LF)
Chicago- Everything, save for Paul Konerko.
NL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland Athletics
Outlook:Texas still has a better lineup than LA. By a mile. And while their pitching isn’t as solid 1-4 as LA’s, their depth is much, much better. Say Jered Weaver goes down (or Haren, Wilson, or Santana). Who is going to fill that void? Jerome Williams? Garrett Richards? Now look at Texas. If someone goes down, Scott Feldman, who had a sub-1.1. WHIP last year, can spot start. Or maybe you’d prefer Alexi Ogando? LA is one injury in the rotation away from a real problem.
“But Albert Pujols!!!!!!” you yell in an annoying voice. What’s around him? Alberto Callaspo, Mark Trumbo, Erick Aybar, Chris Ianetta, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter? I mean, really? That’s what we’re all revved up about? A bunch of guys who couldn’t get on base if you gave them a map, a canteen, and a Nepalese sherpa?
GIve me Kinsler, Hamilton, Cruz, Beltre, Andrus, Napoli, and (sigh) Young any day of the week. And while we’re at it, let’s not pretend that this Texas team cannot pitch. They can. And have. And will. I get that the names Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis aren’t exactly turning you on. But they’re effective pitchers. With a lineup like Texas’, they don’t need to be the Phillies.
At the bottom of the division, you have two very intriguing, if also not good, teams. The A’s are insanely terrible on paper. I’ll be surprised if they score 600 runs this season. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a worse lineup. And yet, I don’t think they’re the worst team in baseball. They can pitch. And with guys like Jarrod Parker and (to a lesser extent) Brad Peacock in the minors, they’ll continue to pitch. Brandon McCarthy’s numbers at the end of the season will surprise you. They’re not going to win 80 games, but we’re not talking about the 2003 Detroit Tigers.
The Mariners can hit a little more and have Felix Hernandez. But really, they’re just like the A’s. I expect Danny Hultzen to be called up by June, like Jarrod Parker in Oakland, thus filling the spot currently employed by a replacement player. And I have faith in the combo of Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak. Enough faith that I think they’ll win two more games than the A’s.
They’ll both be better than you think, but neither will be teams you’ll want to watch on MLB.TV.
Playoffs:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card 1: Angels
AL Wild Card 2: Rays
Angels beat Rays in playoff game.
Yankees beat Angels
Rangers beat Tigers
ALCS: Yankees over Rangers in 6, behind the pitching depth they lacked in 2010. Michael Pineda will be a key for the Yankees. If he gives them a year similar to last year’s (in Seattle), I think they’ll have the advantage over Texas. Both lineups can and will rake. The Yankees will pitch just a little better.
WORLD SERIES: Yankees over Giants in 5. The Giants simply don’t have the hitting to contend with the Yankees. And whereas in 2010, that would have been okay for the Giants, I don’t think it will be this year. New York is just too well-rounded.
AWARDS
AL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen
AL ROY: Matt Moore
NL ROY: Trevor Bauer
AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Cliff Lee
And finally, I give you a list. This list will lay out the top 5 teams based on my interest in watching them play games via my MLB.TV subscription. Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles games are blacked out on MLB.TV in my area, so those two teams are not eligible. Asleep yet? Great.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (Striking similarities to Texas. A little less offense and a little less pitching. Plus Jose Bautista.)
4. Kansas City Royals (They’re a riser. The pitching is a year or two away, but I’ve enjoyed watching their offense this spring. And Eric Hosmer is going to break out in a big way this year.)
3. Texas Rangers (Just an exciting team. Long games, of course, because of the offense. But worth the time.)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (I really like their rotation and will like it even more when I can watch Trevor Bauer pitch regularly.)
1. San Francisco Giants (If there’s a better announcing duo in baseball than Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow…well, there isn’t. And with their pitching, Giants games are never a bore.)
Honorable mention goes to the Dodgers. And it has nothing to do with Matt Kemp or Clayton Kershaw, though they’re both quite good. For me, there’s still no more enjoyable baseball experience than turning out the lights on a weeknight and settling in for a few innings with Vin Scully. It doesn’t matter who’s on the field, as long as Vin is in the booth.
Enjoy the season! Go Nats!
Mid-Atlantic Bias 