If the NBA Draft was a science, it would be a baking soda volcano. It’s not terribly hard to make a baking soda volcano erupt. Baking soda + vinegar + food coloring (optional)= Boom! Or fizz.
The NFL Draft is hard. The talent gap between college football and professional football is enormous. You have complex systems in the NFL, playbooks that are written in hieroglyphics, demanding offseason workouts, and the dramatic increase in game speed. It’s harder to project NFL prospects.
I’ve never found the NBA Draft to be a hard code to crack. Teams that draft high on upside have a very good chance to be let down. I’m having a hard time remembering the last time a raw, high-upside guy was taken in the Top 5 and had an All-Star career.
Two years ago, Derrick Favors was drafted out of Georgia Tech by the New Jersey Nets. He was sushi-grade raw. But the experts loved his potential. This year, he averaged 9 points and 6.5 rebounds per game for the Utah Jazz.
How about Xavier Henry, a raw guard from Kansas who didn’t do much in his short time in the Big XII? He was drafted 12th overall in that draft by Memphis. He averaged 17 minutes per game this year and scored 5 points per.
Favors may develop into a solid role player, but the only way he gets to the All-Star game is if he buys a ticket. Henry will be out of the NBA in 3 years.
Lottery teams cannot afford to be patient with players like Henry because when your lottery picks don’t make an immediate impact, you end up back in the lottery, drafting other guys who take playing time from the previous lottery pick. And the cycle goes on.
The NBA Draft is actually kind of simple. Early on (in the lottery), you draft the most impactful available college player who is already very good at something, with room to grow elsewhere. You don’t draft players who aren’t good at anything, and made no impact in college, but “could develop into an All-Star” because they’re “long” and athletic. If you’re a playoff team (as in, out of the lottery) and those players fall to you, take the risk. Drafting high, though, you have to realize that the chances that that player will develop into an All-Star are so low as to not make it worth the wasted pick. Get value for your high picks. Yes, maybe the guy won’t be the next Michael Jordan. But Steve Kerr was a pretty darn important player. Let the good teams take the risk later in the first round. If you’re bad, don’t you want an immediate positive impact? Otherwise, aren’t GMs and coaches going to lose their jobs? Professional sports is not a place to sit around and wait for guys to blossom. It’s an industry that requires immediate dividends. You can argue about whether that’s the way it “should be” or not, in the “perfect world.”. But it’s the way it is. So adapt.
When it comes to trying to mock the NBA Draft, you may as well just pick names from a hat. There are so many trades and reaches that it’s a futile exercise to try to guess who Milwaukee will take with the 12th overall pick. By the time I publish this post, they’ll have traded it for future draft considerations. (I kid you not, I wrote this on Wednesday before they traded this pick to the Rockets)
I did a mock draft in 2008 that had Nicolas Batum going 3rd overall. It looked ridiculous at the time because no one who reads this had seen him play. I hadn’t seen him play. But I read about him and liked what was there. Batum was drafted 25th overall. If we had a 2008 NBA Draft do-over, he’d likely be a Top 10 pick.
And so with that, below you will find my list of the 30 players who will pay the highest dividends in the NBA. Some of these guys won’t be drafted in the first round. Heck, some might not even get drafted. And I’m okay with that. And always keep in mind, most NBA first rounders won’t matter ten years down the line. Of all the players selected in the first round in the 2002 draft, only 5 are still playing any sort of role in the NBA. This is my big board. Apologies to Tyler Zeller.
The NFL Draft is hard. The talent gap between college football and professional football is enormous. You have complex systems in the NFL, playbooks that are written in hieroglyphics, demanding offseason workouts, and the dramatic increase in game speed. It’s harder to project NFL prospects.
I’ve never found the NBA Draft to be a hard code to crack. Teams that draft high on upside have a very good chance to be let down. I’m having a hard time remembering the last time a raw, high-upside guy was taken in the Top 5 and had an All-Star career.
Two years ago, Derrick Favors was drafted out of Georgia Tech by the New Jersey Nets. He was sushi-grade raw. But the experts loved his potential. This year, he averaged 9 points and 6.5 rebounds per game for the Utah Jazz.
How about Xavier Henry, a raw guard from Kansas who didn’t do much in his short time in the Big XII? He was drafted 12th overall in that draft by Memphis. He averaged 17 minutes per game this year and scored 5 points per.
Favors may develop into a solid role player, but the only way he gets to the All-Star game is if he buys a ticket. Henry will be out of the NBA in 3 years.
Lottery teams cannot afford to be patient with players like Henry because when your lottery picks don’t make an immediate impact, you end up back in the lottery, drafting other guys who take playing time from the previous lottery pick. And the cycle goes on.
The NBA Draft is actually kind of simple. Early on (in the lottery), you draft the most impactful available college player who is already very good at something, with room to grow elsewhere. You don’t draft players who aren’t good at anything, and made no impact in college, but “could develop into an All-Star” because they’re “long” and athletic. If you’re a playoff team (as in, out of the lottery) and those players fall to you, take the risk. Drafting high, though, you have to realize that the chances that that player will develop into an All-Star are so low as to not make it worth the wasted pick. Get value for your high picks. Yes, maybe the guy won’t be the next Michael Jordan. But Steve Kerr was a pretty darn important player. Let the good teams take the risk later in the first round. If you’re bad, don’t you want an immediate positive impact? Otherwise, aren’t GMs and coaches going to lose their jobs? Professional sports is not a place to sit around and wait for guys to blossom. It’s an industry that requires immediate dividends. You can argue about whether that’s the way it “should be” or not, in the “perfect world.”. But it’s the way it is. So adapt.
When it comes to trying to mock the NBA Draft, you may as well just pick names from a hat. There are so many trades and reaches that it’s a futile exercise to try to guess who Milwaukee will take with the 12th overall pick. By the time I publish this post, they’ll have traded it for future draft considerations. (I kid you not, I wrote this on Wednesday before they traded this pick to the Rockets)
I did a mock draft in 2008 that had Nicolas Batum going 3rd overall. It looked ridiculous at the time because no one who reads this had seen him play. I hadn’t seen him play. But I read about him and liked what was there. Batum was drafted 25th overall. If we had a 2008 NBA Draft do-over, he’d likely be a Top 10 pick.
And so with that, below you will find my list of the 30 players who will pay the highest dividends in the NBA. Some of these guys won’t be drafted in the first round. Heck, some might not even get drafted. And I’m okay with that. And always keep in mind, most NBA first rounders won’t matter ten years down the line. Of all the players selected in the first round in the 2002 draft, only 5 are still playing any sort of role in the NBA. This is my big board. Apologies to Tyler Zeller.
1.)Anthony Davis (PF/Kentucky/Freshman)
Comment: He’s the consensus #1 for a reason. His defensive presence alone would make him a top-5 pick. He didn’t get enough credit as an offensive player at UK though. Davis can shoot. And he
Comment: He’s the consensus #1 for a reason. His defensive presence alone would make him a top-5 pick. He didn’t get enough credit as an offensive player at UK though. Davis can shoot. And he
can run the floor better than any big man in this, or any, draft.
2.) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (SF/Kentucky/Freshman)
Comment: The gap between Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist is smaller than the gap between MKG and Lillard. I love Kidd-Gilchrist’s motor. I love his tenacity on the defensive side of the ball. He can do everything, save for shoot the 3. And he’s a high character guy. I think a lot of people look at him as boring. He might not be a superstar, but he’ll be one of the best all-around players in the NBA. And very quickly.
3.) Damian Lillard (PG/Weber State/Junior)
Comment: I love Lillard’s ability (and willingness) to drive. The kid can flat out score the basketball. He can shoot it from deep. His traditional point guard skills can (and will) improve. Right now, I could see him coming in and leading any team in the top 5, except for the Cavs (Kyrie Irving). And yes, that’s a personal attack on John Wall.
4.) Kendall Marshall (PG/North Carolina/Sophomore)
Comment: Marshall will not be a lottery pick. I understand that. However, for a team in need of a facilitator, he should be. I haven’t seen a college guard at an elite program with Marshall’s court vision since Jason Kidd. He’s going to be a very good PG for a long time in the NBA.
5.) Thomas Robinson (PF/Kansas/Junior)
Comment: Robinson is a physical specimen. He’s not going to be able to push around NBA 4s/5s like he did in college, but he’s athletic enough to pull them away from the basket. He’ll be a solid rebounder and a defensive force.
6.) Bradley Beal (SG/Florida/Freshman)
Comment: A scorer who can handle the ball. And when I say “scorer” I mean he can score from
anywhere on the court. Great range, but quick enough to beat guys off the dribble.
7.) Jared Sullinger (PF/Ohio State/Sophomore)
Comment: Remember how DeJuan Blair was a really good college player, but people didn’t like him because he was undersized and injury prone and he fell into the middle-part of the second round? Yeah. Exactly.
8.) Doron Lamb (SG/Kentucky/Sophomore)
Comment: Other areas of his game will have to improve, but if you’re looking for an efficient 3-point shooter who’s not going to kill you on the defensive side of the ball, you could do much worse than Doron Lamb. I think he can build around his shooting to become a long-term starter in the NBA.
9.) Marquis Teague (PG/Kentucky/Freshman)
Comment: I like PGs. That’s obviously very clear here. I like Teague more than the experts. He’s quick. He sees the court beautifully. He needs to develop more of a shooting stroke, perhaps, to warrant this high of a pick, but I think he can step in right away and be a very useful 20 MPG backup PG in 2012-13 and be a full-time starter for years after.
10.) Austin Rivers (SG/Duke/Freshman)
Comment: There is no more polarizing player in this draft. You either love Rivers or you hate him. Funny enough that he’s here because I hate him. However, I see the value in Rivers. He’s a fearless shooter and scorer who can get to the basket consistently. He’s a shoot first (and second, and third, and fourth) player who, on the right team, could develop into a major threat and potential All-Star. You cannot overlook players who can get their own shot and score. Rivers can do that.
11.) Harrison Barnes (SF/North Carolina/Sophomore)
Comment: Barnes is like Rivers, except he’s not a fearless shooter. In fact, sometimes, he’s invisible on the court. That said, you cannot pass up a guy who can score like Barnes can. He’ll give you nothing on the defensive side of the ball, but could develop into the slightly richer man’s Marvin
Williams, which, in this spot, is actually fairly valuable.
12.) Royce White (PF/Iowa State/Sophomore)
Comment: I’m biased when it comes to Royce White. As a person who suffers from unexplained fits of uncontrollable anxiety, I have a hard time not rooting for an athlete who is open and honest about his health. White had (and continues to have) a lot to lose financially by being honest about his struggles with an anxiety disorder. That has not stopped him from trying to get teams and fans to understand his mindset. And I respect that. I also respect a guy his size who can score from anywhere on the court and can pass like he can. If I’m rooting for anyone in this draft to succeed, outside of Anthony Davis and MKG, it’s Royce White.
13.) Dion Waiters (SG/Syracuse/Sophomore)
Comment: Do I love Dion Waiters? No. Do I think he’s inconsistent? Yes. Do I think he’s better, on paper, than all of the players below him on this list? Absolutely. Though I will say, to hear scouts rave about his scoring ability is a bit amusing because he only averaged 12 points a game last year at Syracuse. But there’s room in his game for a marked improvement there.
14.) Andrew Nicholson (PF/Saint Bonaventure/Senior)
Comment: The team that drafts Nicholson will have a fan base sighing. It won’t be a sigh of relief, necessarily. It will be more a sigh of disinterest. But it shouldn’t be. Nicholson is a finisher around the basket. He’s a solid defensive player who can block shots because of of his length, and has some NBA range on his 3-point shot.
15.) Scott Machado (PG/Iona/Senior)
Comment: I’m pretty confident that Machado won’t be a first round pick. But, again, I love PGs, and if Machado was a little bigger, he’d be a top 10 here. I added the qualifier, with Kendall Marshall that I haven’t seen vision like his at an elite program….Iona is not an elite program. The few times I was able to watch Machado live last year, I was blown away by his quickness and his vision, especially in transition. He’s not going to be an ideal half-court PG. But he could be a Rajon Rondo-type PG, just without the defense.
16.) Terrence Ross (SG/Washington/Sophomore)
Comment: A scorer and nothing else really. But he has elite scoring potential.
17.)Jeffrey Taylor (SF/Vanderbilt/Senior)
Comment: An elite college defender who should translate to the NBA. Taylor’s athleticism is an asset in his transition to the NBA. A player with his skill set, minus that athleticism, would likely be a second rounder.
18.) Jae Crowder (SF/Marquette/Senior)
Comment: Another guy who won’t be a first rounder, and very well might not get drafted. Regardless, I think you’d have to be insane to overlook Crowder. The knock on him is that he is the ultimate tweener. He has no position on the basketball court. He’s a 6’6” player with a power forward’s skill set. Whatever. The guy has a motor that is unparalleled. I hate to make the obvious physical appearance comp, but Crowder reminds of a smaller Kenneth Faried. Faried made a name for himself as a 6’8” PF/C for Denver. And he was very good in that role. Crowder can do the same and shoot the basketball from outside. I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t get a shot.
19.) Terrence Jones (SF/Kentucky/Sophomore)
Comment: Giant enigma #1. Jones’ two years at Kentucky were as up-and-down as an apathetic roller coaster ride. At times, Jones looked like he just didn’t care (see: Kentucky’s loss to Indiana last season). Other times, Jones looked unstoppable (see: Kentucky’s win over St. John’s last season). He has a definite position in the NBA. He can pass the basketball. Often times, he does that too much. He can rebound and would be considered athletic at any spot on the court. And there’s a world of potential as a scorer at the 3.
20.) Tony Wroten Jr (PG/Washington/Freshman)
Comment: Wroten is a pass-first PG who is incredibly raw, but there are enough ball skills to warrant him being taken in the later ⅓ of the first round. He needs to develop as a scoring threat, but he possesses great vision and passing ability.
21.) Perry Jones III (SF/Baylor/Sophomore)
Comment: Giant enigma #2. Read Terrence Jones’ comment from above. Now take out the part where Terrence Jones has a defined position. I think Perry Jones can succeed in the NBA, but it’s going to take a lot of patience, which is why he’s this low. He would have been a top-3 pick last year, but a season of no development hurt him. He’d be a great fit on the Celtics if Garnett returns. If KG can’t light a fire under Jones III, no one can.
Comment: Giant enigma #2. Read Terrence Jones’ comment from above. Now take out the part where Terrence Jones has a defined position. I think Perry Jones can succeed in the NBA, but it’s going to take a lot of patience, which is why he’s this low. He would have been a top-3 pick last year, but a season of no development hurt him. He’d be a great fit on the Celtics if Garnett returns. If KG can’t light a fire under Jones III, no one can.
22.) Arnett Moultrie (PF/Mississippi State/Junior)
Comment: We’ve now moved into the part of the draft where you and I get pretty bored. Moultrie is an athletic big man with enough of an outside game to become a matchup problem for some NBA teams.
Comment: We’ve now moved into the part of the draft where you and I get pretty bored. Moultrie is an athletic big man with enough of an outside game to become a matchup problem for some NBA teams.
23.) Evan Fournier (SG/France/Freshman (age))
Comment: Dude is from France. How should I know?
Comment: Dude is from France. How should I know?
24.) Meyers Leonard (C/Illinois/Sophomore)
Comment: Athletic and a good defensive player, he’ll serve as a useful backup for someone. Think Aaron Gray or other white backup big-men.
Comment: Athletic and a good defensive player, he’ll serve as a useful backup for someone. Think Aaron Gray or other white backup big-men.
25.) John Jenkins (SG/Vanderbilt/Junior)
Comment: He’s a shooter. Pure and true. He’s not going to add anything else.
Comment: He’s a shooter. Pure and true. He’s not going to add anything else.
26.) Fab Melo (C/Syracuse/Sophomore)
Comment: Um, he’s tall. He’s like the less athletic, offensively challenged version of Meyers Leonard. Except he got kicked out of school.
Comment: Um, he’s tall. He’s like the less athletic, offensively challenged version of Meyers Leonard. Except he got kicked out of school.
27.) Moe Harkless (SF/St. Johns/Freshman)
Comment: A generally indifferent player with some great athleticism. As a 6’9” small forward, I’m not sure what the heck he really is in the NBA, though I’m not terribly concerned with that. I’m more concerned by how little he played defense at St. John’s. Regardless, his athleticism makes him worthy of a late first-round selection.
Comment: A generally indifferent player with some great athleticism. As a 6’9” small forward, I’m not sure what the heck he really is in the NBA, though I’m not terribly concerned with that. I’m more concerned by how little he played defense at St. John’s. Regardless, his athleticism makes him worthy of a late first-round selection.
28.) Jeremy Lamb (SG/Connecticut/Sophomore)
Comment: This is the portion that is reserved for guys who will be top-10 picks who I wouldn’t touch. Lamb was a good college defender, but he’s a beanpole. He’s going to get abused by the Dwyane Wade’s of the world. He was often a non-factor offensively despite the fact that he’s got some good offensive tools. Lamb will be a top-10 pick (and the first Lamb to get drafted) because he’s a freakish athlete. A long wing-span never really got anyone far without drive and, you know, usable size. Reach is only good for a skinny basketball player when it comes to giving teammates Gatorade.
Comment: This is the portion that is reserved for guys who will be top-10 picks who I wouldn’t touch. Lamb was a good college defender, but he’s a beanpole. He’s going to get abused by the Dwyane Wade’s of the world. He was often a non-factor offensively despite the fact that he’s got some good offensive tools. Lamb will be a top-10 pick (and the first Lamb to get drafted) because he’s a freakish athlete. A long wing-span never really got anyone far without drive and, you know, usable size. Reach is only good for a skinny basketball player when it comes to giving teammates Gatorade.
29.) John Henson (PF/North Carolina/Sophomore)
Comment: See: Thabeet, Hasheem. I actually don’t dislike John Henson. I just don’t think he’s worthy of a top-15 pick because he’s “long.” You’re not going to find a longer player than Henson in this draft. His length, at least visually, is magnified by his incredibly slight frame. I weigh 140 pounds and I look bigger than the 6’10” Henson. He was a decent shot blocker in college, but a lot of that was due to his getting beat off the dribble and cleaning up his mistakes. In the NBA, players are too quick for second chances. Henson is going to get lost on the court. He’s the case of a player who should have returned to school and accessed the UNC weight room.
Comment: See: Thabeet, Hasheem. I actually don’t dislike John Henson. I just don’t think he’s worthy of a top-15 pick because he’s “long.” You’re not going to find a longer player than Henson in this draft. His length, at least visually, is magnified by his incredibly slight frame. I weigh 140 pounds and I look bigger than the 6’10” Henson. He was a decent shot blocker in college, but a lot of that was due to his getting beat off the dribble and cleaning up his mistakes. In the NBA, players are too quick for second chances. Henson is going to get lost on the court. He’s the case of a player who should have returned to school and accessed the UNC weight room.
30.) Andre Drummond (C/Connecticut/Freshman)
Comment: See: Bust, Giant. I referred to someone from above as sushi-grade raw (Derrick Favors). I’m not sure what’s more raw than that. Perhaps a fish, swimming in the ocean? Drummond is a swimming fish. He’s so un-NBA ready that his early entry into the Draft was the source of laughter for me. Some guys could use some more seasoning (Henson). Drummond needs a vat of salt. He rebounded in the Big East. I seriously question if he’ll do the same in the NBA. Outside of his rebounding, he could not score consistently in conference play. He’s going to be a high lottery pick. And that’s going to hurt a franchise.
Comment: See: Bust, Giant. I referred to someone from above as sushi-grade raw (Derrick Favors). I’m not sure what’s more raw than that. Perhaps a fish, swimming in the ocean? Drummond is a swimming fish. He’s so un-NBA ready that his early entry into the Draft was the source of laughter for me. Some guys could use some more seasoning (Henson). Drummond needs a vat of salt. He rebounded in the Big East. I seriously question if he’ll do the same in the NBA. Outside of his rebounding, he could not score consistently in conference play. He’s going to be a high lottery pick. And that’s going to hurt a franchise.
Mid-Atlantic Bias 