Super Youth

(This post was written last week. Just got around to editing it. Any statistical information in here has changed, though only slightly.)

From time to time, I notice a bit of redundancy in my writing. I’m like the Aaron Sorkin of writing a blog that no one reads. So forgive me, but I know I’ve probably written this next sentence before…

We are currently entrenched in the most exciting time in my baseball life. The game is littered from Lake County, Ohio to Anaheim, CA with the best influx in young talent in decades.

Some of that talent is already in the Majors. Others are still in Low-A ball or even Short-Season. Regardless, we are blessed, as baseball fans. The game of baseball is in excellent hands for the next 15 years. At least.

So why not make a super team of the best players, right now, aged 25 and under (as of this posting) in all of organizational baseball?  What follows is a 25-man roster designed to win (and in the next 2 years). In some instances (and I’ll point them out) I could easily project a player to a starting position for convenience. I’m not going to do that for the starters. It seems unfair.

STARTING LINEUP
Catcher: Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants). He’s a great defensive catcher, who also happens to be able to hit really well to all fields. He’s kind of the perfect hitter for his park. The power is never going to be there at an elite level with Posey, but he could easily be a 20 HR/year guy (on pace for 19 this year). At a position of weakness for baseball, Posey is the clear front-runner.

First Base: Eric Hosmer (Kansas City Royals). Hosmer is having a less than exciting sophomore season right now. He’s hitting just .224 and getting on-base at a clip below 30%. That said, the talent pool at this position is horrid and Hosmer, who is just 22, certainly has the tools to be a very good, everyday 1B for the next 10-15 years. This year could just be his “Jason Heyward” year.

Second Base: Jason Kipnis (Cleveland Indians). Kipnis might not look like a middle infielder, but he’s actually been a solid defensive 2-bagger this season. He ranks 10th in the American League (among all players) in dWAR and if you prefer old-school baseball stats, he’s fielding at a .992 rate. At the plate, Kipnis won’t kill you. He’s not a particularly patient hitter, but you can do much worse (especially at this position) than 33 walks in 370 plate appearances. And there’s a little bit of pop in that bat.

Third Base: Brett Lawrie (Toronto Blue Jays). Quick, who has the highest WAR (Baseball-Reference) in all of the American League? Answer: Lawrie. Most of that is due to his stellar defense (he brings an absurd 3.6 dWAR number to the table). Offensively, you’re going to get speed on the bases (though he might want to consider becoming a more selective base-stealer as he’s been thrown out 8 times in 19 attempts) and a guy with some power potential.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus (Texas Rangers). Great speed, a solid glove, and a two-time (deserving) All-Star. Andrus can do it all except hit for power. He’s becoming a more selective hitter as he ages (he’s only 23). This is the guy I want leading off for my team. Outside of Troy Tulowitzki, Andrus is the best SS in all of organizational baseball, right now. Of course, there’s someone right behind him. But more on him later.

Right Field: Justin Upton (Arizona Diamondbacks). He may not be a Diamondback for very long, but he’s certainly on this team. At just 24, Upton is miles beyond the development of other players his age. This is his 5th full Major League season. He’s been an All-Star twice and was a legitimate MVP candidate last year. This season, his offensive numbers have dipped and there’s talk that the team doesn’t like his attitude or that he might be injured. I’m not here to judge that. Upton is an undisputed five-tool player. That gives him the slight edge over the other obvious candidate here.

Center Field: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels). There aren’t enough superlatives in the English language for Mike Trout. He does everything so well. He’s, of course, only 20. He’s near the pace for a 25 HR/60 SB season, while playing Gold Glove defense. And, again, he’s only 20. There’s another exceptional candidate for this position, but Trout’s enormous ceiling gives him the edge.

Left Field: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals). He’s a man without a true OF position. He’s started at least 6 games at each position this season, so we’ll place him in LF for now. Harper doesn’t have Trout’s glove or speed (outside of Billy Hamilton and Peter Bourjos, who does?), but at 19 he possesses almost unparalleled power potential. His swing is violent, but he has proven himself to not be a hacker. He strikes out a bit, but he makes solid adjustments when he’s down in counts. At just 19, he’s not afraid of slapping a two-strike pitch into left for a double. If I have Trout in CF, I want Harper flanking him. It just seems right.

Designated Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton (Miami Marlins). I don’t believe that pitchers should hit. I used to. I don’t any more. It hurts the game. Pitchers don’t get enough reps at the plate. And so, we’re playing in the American League. Stanton was the “other obvious choice” at RF, but I’ll take Upton in the field. Stanton is here for his absurd power. He’s going to strike out a lot, but I’m okay with that. He’s only 22 and may have a 50 HR season in his future.

Batting Order:
SS Andrus
CF Trout
RF Upton
DH Stanton
LF Harper
C Posey
1B Hosmer
3B Lawrie
2B Kipnis

Bench players:
Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud (Toronto Blue Jays)
Infielders: Jurickson Profar (Texas Rangers) and Starlin Castro (Chicago Cubs)
Outfielder: Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates) and Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves)

Offensive Overview:
I thought heavily about having light-hitting Atlanta Braves prospect Christian Bethancourt as a third catcher on this roster. My thinking is that Posey would get some time at 1B, to spell Hosmer and with Travis d’Arnaud’s injury history, I’m willing to take an offensive loss behind the plate in exchange for what some scouts say is the best defensive catcher they’ve ever seen. I’m no scout. But I’ve seen Bethancourt in the minors. His arm is real. And it is spectacular.

That said, Bethancourt misses the cut because he’s an atrocious hitter. d’Arnaud has the tools to put him in competition with Posey if not for the fact that he’s hurt, again. Had he not torn his PCL, d’Arnaud would likely be starting for the Blue Jays right now.

Profar is a name that some might not be familiar with, but they should be. He’s the most impressive prospect in the game and, perhaps, already one of the best 5 shortstops in all of baseball.. As a young 19 year old, he shows the sort of plate discipline that most 30 year olds would envy. He’s got surprising power for a guy who probably hasn’t finished growing. He fields the position so well that his arrival in the big leagues (probably next spring) will move Elvis Andrus elsewhere. And Andrus is no slouch. Profar is the kind of guy I want on a team like this. Someone who can help now and will lead the team in his early 20s.

Starlin Castro is not the kind of player that I want on this team. However, I have a hard time denying that he should be here. He’s also not enough of a shortstop that I would feel bad having two shortstops. He’d move around a little in my infield and bat low in the order when he was in there. I know that doesn’t sound exciting, but frankly, I’m not that excited about having Castro here. He’s the 25th man on the roster. Present only for potential and because I could plug him in elsewhere.

The idea of having Andrew McCutchen on my bench seems a little ridiculous, but I’m unwilling to move Bryce Harper out of the starting lineup. It’s part homerism, certainly, but also the fact that I would rather have Harper for the remainder of his career than McCutchen. That is certainly not to slight Cutch. He’s one of the best players in baseball and a possible MVP candidate this season. We’ve seen McCutchen’s ceiling, I think. In fact, I think we’re seeing it right now. And it’s a very nice ceiling. But Harper’s could be the Sistine Chapel.

The biggest red flag here is that I have six outfield players (including the DH Stanton). I have a problem with that. Trust me. The argument for the six outfielders is this: Hey, look at the first base talent pool. You’ve got a few unproven commodities (Mike Olt, namely) who could move over to the position from elsewhere. You’ve got some middle-of-the-road possibilities (Freddie Freeman, Ike Davis). And you’ve got Paul Goldschmidt, who I just don’t believe is a .360+ OBP hitter.

And, again, you’ve got Posey who can play 1B.

Heyward is the next best bat, for me. And accordingly, he finds himself here.

PITCHING ROTATION
Starting Pitcher: Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals). He’s the game’s best young pitcher. No one possesses the arsenal of pitches that Strasburg does. Electric fastball. Nasty hook. And maybe the game’s best change-up.  He’s the total package at 23.

Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers). Kershaw does everything that you want a pitcher to do and from the left side. He too has a great fastball, but also brings a devastating slider that he uses to strike hitters out. And it works. He’s your reigning NL Cy Young Award winner for good reason.

Starting Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants). A lefty with a really good fastball and a decreased walk rate. Bumgarner might be a product of his home park (nearly twice as many homers on the road versus at home), but that’s fine by me. He’s showing an increased ability to miss bats. And the velocity issues he was having prior to 2010 seem to be a thing of the past.

Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish (Texas Rangers). As long as he doesn’t have to face the Seattle Mariners, I want Yu on my team. His walk rate will need to decrease, but really, you could do much worse for a number 4 starter.

Starting Pitcher: Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox). His arm is going to fall off.Look at this picture. Still, better to burn out than fade away? I guess? Sale is Genghis Khan on lefties. He attacks the zone and strikes hitters out with electric stuff. He might be better suited, long-term, for the bullpen, but you cannot overlook what he’s done in 2012 as a starter.

Missing the cut:
Trevor Bauer (Arizona Diamondbacks)- It’s never a good thing to be demoted to the minor leagues once you’ve been promoted to the minors. Bauer was in the rotation originally. However, he’s shown no control over his offspeed pitches so far. If he gets the walk rate down, he can find himself in the rotation once Sale’s arm melts.


Dylan Bundy (Balitmore Orioles)- At this time next year, he might be in the rotation. But until a guy throws a pitch in the Majors, or even AA, I have trouble projecting him as a Major Leaguer.


Matt Moore (Tampa Bay Rays)- He’s giving up nearly a hit an inning. The stuff is certainly there, but he’s had a hard time putting it together this season, after a great September in 2011.


Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh Pirates)- See: Bundy, Dylan. Also, he’s never called his own game. Ever. That’s an issue until he does.

Barely too old:
Felix Hernandez
David Price

BULLPEN
Craig Kimbrel (Atlanta Braves). Smoke.
Aroldis Chapman (Cincinnati Reds). Fire.
Kenley Jansen (Los Angeles Dodgers). Precision. That .80 WHIP is astounding.
Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers). I don’t think he’s a starter, long term. And he’s definitely a good reliever.
Drew Storen (Washington Nationals). Really good 2-seam fastball.
Wade Miley (Arizona Diamondbacks). A two pitch pitcher (he throws his curve and slider each less than 10% of the time). He could be a valuable long-relief guy, despite his minor successes as a starter this year.


There you have it. Think I made a mistake? I probably did. So let me know that I missed someone obvious and make me look foolish on the interweb. Think you have a better team? Send it my way.

2 thoughts on “Super Youth

  1. I enjoyed this post; I'm sure I'd have some quibbles (I'd expect Kipnis to be much more patient long-term than he has been, and frankly, I might take Jurickson Profar there even though he's not in the majors yet), but I think you make a valid point for most of these players.

    The one thing I would say is that I think dWAR is almost irrelevent for 2B/3B/SS given the shifting lately. Lawrie's dWAR is ridiculous because Toronto often plays him in short right field when they shift. Everytime Lawrie, a 3B, fields a ball in RF, dWAR goes crazy. I think they'll need to do some refining of that stat to disregard the shift whenever they eventually get down to fixing d-stats.

  2. Pingback: MLB 25 And Under Dream Team | Mid-Atlantic Bias

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