2012-13 National Basketball Association Preview

As I write this, I haven’t seen the sun in days, it’s in the mid-40’s outside, and if I wasn’t listening to Shovels and Rope right now, I would be listening to rain trickling off of my porch.

In short, the NBA season is upon us.

What a disadvantage the NBA is at. Baseball’s season begins in my favorite annual period, when the weather has been warmer for a few weeks, trees are blossoming, the sun is out longer, and people are generally more positive. Football begins when the heat of summer is fading away (which other people like. I’m fond of the heat. Just not the Heat.). Pumpkins, hayrides, sweet potato-based side dishes, and sweaters.

The NBA season begins when everything is dying. Trees are naked. Noses are running. The sun is out for approximately 4 hours per day. It’s hard to get excited about very much in late October, unless you like Halloween. Because I’m no longer 8 years old, Halloween has about as much appeal to me as St. Patrick’s Day.

This year’s NBA season brings with it some terrific storylines. Everyone’s favorite bipolar center, Dwight Howard, joins forces with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, and Steve Nash to form the NBA’s best starting lineup.

Ray Allen, after being disrespected or something, left the family in Boston for redder pastures in South Florida with the reigning champion Miami Heat.

Brooklyn has a team now. Did you  know that? They have really cool merchandise. Their court looks awesome. Jay Z. I’d really like the Brooklyn Nets if I didn’t dislike their players so much.

Will Derrick Rose make it back to Chicago to give the Miami Heat some competition in the Eastern Conference?

Given 16 more opportunities than last year, will the Charlotte Bobcats top their 2011-12 win total?

Of course, none of the above will be truly relevant until baseball’s season begins and the NBA’s regular season is finally winding down. But at least the weather will be better.


EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Miami Heat
2. Boston Celtics
3. Indiana Pacers
4. Philadelphia 76ers
5. Brooklyn Nets
6. Chicago Bulls
7. Atlanta Hawks
8. Milwaukee Bucks
————————–
9. New York Knicks
10. Washington Wizards
11. Cleveland Cavaliers
12. Detroit Pistons
13. Orlando Magic
14. Toronto Raptors
15. Charlotte Bobcats

Eastern Conference Outlook: I see no real reason why the Miami Heat won’t get back to the NBA finals. I think the most interesting challenger, come playoff time, will be the Philadelphia 76ers, who are young, deep, and fun to watch. Do I think they can push Miami to seven games? No. But as far as exciting 5 or 6 game series go, this could be it.

This, of course, raises the question of the Boston Celtics. I have Boston finishing second in the East, less because of homerism and more because I think over the course of a regular season, they’ll be the second best team in the conference. It’s not an original narrative, but I do think that the Celtics age will hurt them in the final third of the season. The roster is deeper this year than in year’s prior, but in today’s NBA, you can’t be relying on players born in the 1970s year-after-year. Three of the Celtics top 6 players were born in the day’s of disco. Kevin Durant was born in the day’s of grunge.


WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Oklahoma City Thunder
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Utah Jazz
8. Dallas Mavericks
____________________
9. Houston Rockets
10. New Orleans Hornets
11. Portland Trail Blazers
12. Minnesota Timberwolves
13. Golden State Warriors
14. Sacramento Kings
15. Phoenix Suns

Western Conference Breakdown: You could shuffle around the top 5 in the West and I’d have a hard time arguing with you. That said, these are predictions.

I don’t think the Lakers will have the same identity issues that Miami had in year 1 with their Big 3. Kobe Bryant is the alpha dog there. I think the biggest issue for LA, besides their less than stellar bench, is Dwight Howard’s health. If Howard’s back isn’t an issue for the majority of the season, LAL should find their way to the NBA finals. It’s a short window. Kobe, Nash, and Gasol are not going to get any younger. And they’ll have to overcome Mike Brown’s deficiencies as an NBA coach, but I think they do it.

San Antonio makes the best case for Western Conference runner up because of their depth and coaching (or the exact opposite of the Lakers). And while Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili aren’t exactly in One Direction’s age demographic, their role players are significantly better than the Lakers, with Kawhi Leonard, Gary Neal, and Tiago Splitter.

I’m of the mindset that you can’t just plug Kevin Martin into the bench rotation for Oklahoma City and viola! you’re just as good or better. The Thunder’s on-court chemistry (you know, except for when Russell Westbrook isn’t passing to his teammates) will be affected without James Harden. I think there’s a step back in OKC’s future.

Finally, if you’re looking to be entertained 4 times over the course of the NBA season, watch the Clippers and Nuggets. They’ll be the two most exciting, watchable teams in what can sometimes be an unwatchable regular season.

NBA FINALS
Miami Heat over Los Angeles Lakers in 6. Maybe Miami doesn’t show up hungry this season. I think they’ll show up relaxed, with the spotlight a little less bright. And relaxed can be good. As long as it’s not complacency.

MVP: LeBron James
Rookie of the Year: Damian Lillard

Leave a comment