Five months ago, the University of Kentucky was crowned NCAA Champions after a stellar run from season start to season finish. The Cats were led by a crop of players who are now playing full-time in the NBA. You’d be hard pressed to recognize anyone on this year’s Kentucky team.

That said, it’s important to mention the 2011-12 Cats strictly for reasons of context for this season. It became fairly clear early on last season that Kentucky was going to win the National Championship. Contrarians among us may have thought otherwise, but following the win over North Carolina, I knew we were looking at a future champion.

This season, things are going to be different in the NCAA. For one, the talent pool is nowhere near as good this season. Last year, you had Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III, and Terrence Jones all returning to school, and an incoming Freshman class with future Player of the Year Anthony Davis, the second pick in the NBA Draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Duke’s Austin Rivers.

Very few truly significant players stayed in school this time around. Indiana’s Cody Zeller certainly wasn’t ready for the NBA and now seems poised to be a star. UCLA bring aboard two highly regarded Freshman recruits in Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson. And Kentucky welcomes Nerlens Noel, who they hope will be Anthony Davis 2.0 (I’m confident enough to say that won’t happen).

I watched more college basketball last season than I had in a very long time. Time will tell if this year will be different. But there’s a lot of things to look for.

One Of These 10 Teams Will The National Championship (I think) (listed in no particular order)

Indiana: The nation’s preseason #1 is on the rise from the ashes. Last year’s win over Kentucky was Tom Crean’s re-coming out party. Crean can both coach and recruit (a valuable asset that not a lot of college basketball coaches possess). He returns his core from last year, led by Zeller and wing-man Christian Watford. The Hoosiers were one of the nation’s most efficient offensive teams last year. I highly doubt that changes in 2012-13.

Michigan: I’ve always been a fan of John Beilein and his coaching philosophy. I love the 1-3-1 zone. I love the long distance offensive assault. This is a guy who took Kevin Pittsnogle, Mike Gansey, and Joe Herber to within minutes of the Final Four at West Virginia. This year’s Michigan team is full of top-tier talent. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway return and welcome in freshman Glenn Robinson III. There’s not a ton of tough interior presence, but on the wing, the Wolverines may be second to none.

San Diego State: Steve Fisher has built one of the nation’s best programs in San Diego and this season may be when the nation sees it. Sure they were a 2-seed in the 2011 tournament, but it’s often hard for the east coast to see west coast basketball. It’s almost like there’s some sort of bias. This year’s Aztecs team is deeper than any other before it. Team stars Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley return for one last push (together) deep into March. SDSU’s biggest roadblock though might be someone in their own conference…

UNLV: If you want to talk deep, let’s talk the Runnin’ Rebels. They too return a star player from last year (Mike Moser) and continue to pair him with developing talents like Anthony Marshall, UCONN transfer Roscoe Smith, interior force Quintrell Thomas, and guard Justin Hawkins. The Rebels and Aztecs will both be in the hunt for a #1 seed this year, assuming they don’t do great damage to each other in their two regular season (and likely MWC Championship) matchups.

North Carolina: The stars are gone. Kendall Marshall is gone. Harrison Barnes is gone. Tyler Zeller is gone. John Henson is gone. And so I don’t see a lot of chatter about the Tar Heels. This seems very wrong. There needs to be some focus on who’s back. James Michael McAdoo (one of my favorites) returns. As do PJ Hariston, Dexter Strickland, and Reggie Bullock. All four were contributors last year. And all four have potential to become stars, especially JMM. And that’s not to ignore incoming freshman Marcus Paige, who will run the point better than any freshman point guard in the nation.

Kansas: Last year’s team that nearly won it all returns, save for Thomas Robinson. I don’t anticipate his loss being very impactful. Last year’s team was “inexperienced.” This year’s team has that experience. The player to watch is Jeff Withey. He’ll be the National Defensive Player of the Year. I have no doubt.

Louisville: This is Rick Pitino’s best Louisville team. They’re deep. They’re experienced. They’re talented. They’re playing in a weaker Big East. And they’re hungry. They enter the season as the preseason #2, but there’s a reason why they seem to be the pick to click come April. The backcourt is undersized (Peyton Siva and Russ Smith) which could matter against a team like North Carolina come March. That’s really my only concern with the Cardinals.

Ohio State: Jared Sullinger is gone, but DeShaun Thomas will make a run at National Player of the Year. Thomas can and will score in bunches in the best conference in basketball (the Big 10). The difference maker will be Aaron Craft. Craft’s defense is second to none in the backcourt. He’ll need to be a little less sloppy with his handling though and the Buckeyes will need to get some consistency out of him from behind the arc. And there’s more there in Columbus (Lenzelle Smith Jr., Evan Ravenel).

Florida: The Gators will be there in late March. The question, as always, with Florida is about size. They’ll play a small backcourt and have only two players on the roster listed above 6’7”. Rebounding will be key for a team that finished 135th in the nation last year and loses Bradley Beal who was a rebounding machine from the wing spot. The upside for the Gators is playing in a weakened SEC. Depth is a concern. If they stay healthy they can make it to the Final Four.

Michigan State: Tom Izzo. I’d trust Tom Izzo to coach a group of glaucoma-ridden senior citizens to the Sweet 16. This year’s team may have lost Draymond Green, but I remember last year, we all said, “oh, this team is too young..” That team was a #1 seed in the tournament before losing to Louisville. Bet on Izzo.



My Final Four:
Indiana
Louisville
Michigan
North Carolina

Season starts tonight (with lots of games on boats). Enjoy it.