Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Wil Myers. He won’t make the Opening Day roster and he might not be up with the big club until after the All-Star break, but the 22 year old Myers is just the latest example of a team rebuilding in the best of ways.
Potential Fatal Flaw: Offense. Outside of Evan Longoria, there is not much power in that lineup.
Ceiling: AL Wild Card.
Floor: They spend the year wallowing in mediocrity and don’t even sniff the playoffs.
Overall: The Rays are worse right now than they were last year. I don’t even know that you can debate the point. BJ Upton is gone. James Shields is too. Say what you want about Upton, but he’s more valuable than his batting average would lead you to believe. The Rays’ outfield defense takes a step back with him out of it. And the offense does too. Upton is one of only a few players in Major League Baseball with 30/30 potential every season. No, he’s not the most patient hitter, but he makes up for that with his blend of speed and power.
The loss of Shields has been kind of understated by a lot of the baseball analysts who I really respect. He’s not David Price, but he’s a big upgrade over Jeff Niemann or Alex Cobb. Long-term, the trade was a very good one for the Rays because they get a potential future star in Wil Myers. But for this year, it’s going to hurt them.
Tampa’s strongest weapon is the front-end of their rotation with reigning Cy Young winner David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and phenom Matt Moore. There’s an argument to be made that Tampa has the Major League’s best 1-2-3. I have real concerns though in relying on Jeff Niemann as a number 4 starter. If Tampa is going to be really successful this season, I think they’ll likely need a real contribution from Chris Archer, a young kid with a power arm, who frankly should be ready to pitch, as a starter in the big leagues at this point in his development.
Tampa’s biggest weakness is their offense. It’s not good. The Rays are going to need Evan Longoria to stay healthy for the entirety of the season if they’re going to earn a playoff spot in the American League. I have my doubts.
Tampa is going to take a step back this season. They’re still the best managed club in baseball. And they have an electric front end of the rotation and a solid bullpen. But they’re going to struggle to score runs. That’ll keep them out of the playoffs.
Predicted Finish: 75-87
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Mid-Atlantic Bias 
I frankly think that the division has regressed enough that the Rays won't really feel a lot of the losses that they face.
For one, while they lose B.J. Upton, they don't lose anything with Jennings shifting to CF and Joyce moving from LF to RF (Zobrist to RF). I think it's pretty likely that Kelly Johnson's stats look somewhat like what B.J. Upton typically does.
I think you're also discounting some of the upgrades the Rays made. For one, James Loney is finally out of the hell that is LA and should hit better; he's also elite defensively. I'd count on average production from Yunel Escobar, which would be a MASSIVE upgrade from what they've had at SS over the years.
From a pitching perspective, they'll miss Shields but you can't discount probable improvements from Hellickson, Moore and Cobb, either, and a more healthy season from an underrated pitcher in Niemann.
I WILL say that I think Wil Myers is the second most overrated prospect in baseball, behind Javier Baez. Players with his strikeout levels don't typically fare well at the major league level.