Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Mike Napoli

Potential Fatal Flaw: Not having enough good players

Ceiling: They make a run at a Wild Card berth

Floor: They make a run at last place in the AL East

Overall: (We’re at the halfway point in the season previews, once this one is done.)

I don’t know what the Red Sox are doing. I’d say they’re rebuilding, but you don’t sign Jonny Gomes to a two-year deal if you’re rebuilding. And you don’t give Shane Victorino a 3-year, $39 million deal if you’re rebuilding. This is not Shane Victorino of the “Flying Hawaiian” variety. This is the Shane Victorino who hit .255/.321/.383 last season (with a .296 on-base pct. against right-handed pitchers). And he’s 32.

The Napoli deal (1 year, up to $13 million with incentives) I do like. That’s the kind of stopgap move you make if you’re flush with cash, but also looking to rebuild. A move to bide time until your farm system is ready (the most likely move is top prospect Xander Bogaerts to third, and current third baseman Will Middlebrooks to first).

Boston’s “big” offseason pitching move was to add Ryan Dempster. I don’t really think he’s going to be a difference maker, especially in a rotation that almost requires John Lackey to be a part of it. And especially moving full time to the American League.

A lot has to go right for the Red Sox to be successful in 2013. In fact, I wonder what the 2013 expectations are for management (the off-the-record expectations, not the “World Series Onward!” Spring Training spin). If they think of themselves as a playoff team, they’ll need Jacoby Ellsbury to play 150 games. They’ll need David Ortiz to hit 30+ homers. They’ll need Jon Lester to put it together. They’ll need Clay Buchholz to lay off the fried chicken (I can’t resist). They’ll need John Lackey to win 15 games.

Can it happen? Boston fans know that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. but, heavens, I would not like to take that bet.

I’ve said this previously, but it’s worth reiterating: the AL East is a regressed division. The Yankees, who we’ll get to eventually, are not a playoff team. And I’ve already said that I don’t think the Rays are built to win this year. Toronto is much improved, but there are lots of questions there. And Baltimore is, contrary to what people in Charm City will tell you, not the 1927 New York Yankees.

Ultimately, Boston’s 2012 struggles carry over into 2013. The characters might be different, but the results will be roughly the same. And even if they’re worse,  I don’t think anyone will be calling for Bobby V’s return.

Predicted Finish: 73-89