Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Josh Hamilton
Potential Fatal Flaw: Old age and the injuries that come with it (coincidentally, the name of my memoir)
Ceiling: World Series champion
Floor: Missing the playoffs. Again.
Overall: Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike Trout.
Okay, now that I have that out of MIKE TROUT!
Okay, deep breath.
Mike Trout was the American League MVP last year. The historical record might say otherwise, but he was. It’s been a long, long time since baseball has seen a 5-tool player this good. There are a handful of true five-toolers in baseball right now. Not all of their tools are exceptional. Mike Trout is the exception. You want power? 30 homers last year. Speed? 49 stolen bases. Contact? .326 batting average. Defense? Don’t let the Gold Glove loss fool you. Trout was the best centerfielder in baseball last year (he contributed, according to Baseball-Reference, 2 wins defensively). The fact that he’s moving to left field this year is more about lowering his injury risk (and how good Peter Bourjos is in center). Watching Mike Trout is a joy. If you know me, you know that I have heaped tremendous praise on Trout. None of it is done hyperbolically. I was very young before Barry Bonds discovered flaxseed oil. I didn’t really see the exceptional 5-tool Bonds. When I watch Trout, I imagine that I’m watching that Barry Bonds. Or Willie Mays. Bury your twitter cynicism or your blind allegiance to some other logo or player and just watch Mike Trout for what he is: the best all-around player in baseball.
Of course, the LA Angels have 24 other players on their projected Opening Day roster. And while none are Mike Trout, some of them are historically very good.That starts with Albert Pujols. That said, Pujols has regressed each of the previous two seasons and I doubt that he’s really going to get back to where he was in 2010 because 33 years-olds don’t really do that. Sure, Pujols has played injured during the previous two seasons, but lots of 33 year-olds play injured. Because they’re 33 and have been playing professional sports for the better part of 15 years. Can you still expect Pujols to hit 30 homers and bat over .290? Sure, I don’t think that’s an unrealistic expectation for this season. Going forward though, LA really has to regret offering a 10 year deal to someone entering his post-prime.
The offseason addition of Josh Hamilton looks much better in theory than it does in actuality. Hamilton’s body has begun to fail him fairly regularly. After playing in almost the entire 2008 season, Hamilton has missed significant time in each of the previous four seasons. LA signed him to a contract this offseason that will pay him $32 million in 2017, when he’ll be 36 years old. He went from an 8 ½ win player in 2010 to a 3 ½ win player in each of the previous two seasons. In other words, regression knows no name like Josh Hamilton.
The rest of the offense is mostly built around filler (save for Mark Trumbo, who at the very least, will hit a lot of home runs, though probably not get on-base as much as you’d like). Guys like Erick Aybar and Alberto Callaspo. Nothing to get jazzed about.
Starting pitching is an area of real concern. Jered Weaver has performed very well over the past two seasons, despite low strikeout rights (relatively speaking for an “ace”) and fairly high flyball rates. That’s not necessarily a good combination for success, but you can probably expect, even with some regression, a really solid season from Weaver.
Behind him is CJ Wilson, who was a free agent prize last go-round. Wilson was disappointing in 2012. He returned to previous form, posting a 1.34 WHIP and seeing his strikeout totals dip from their 2011 high-water mark.
It gets real dicey behind Wilson, though, with Jason Vargas (go on and take a look at his home/road splits with Seattle), Tommy Hanson (whose arm could very well just fall off (I kid you not, I wrote this before he left a Spring Training start today with triceps tightness)), and Joe Blanton, who has been nothing but replacement level since 2009.
The Angels enter 2013 with really high hopes, because on paper, they look great. But the names Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols don’t produce like they used to. And the starting pitching is just not there to contend. The Angels have perhaps the furthest to go to reach their ceiling of any Major League team. Absolutely every realistic element has to go right. It’s too bad Mike Trout can’t make a spot start or two, while playing both corner outfield positions. If anyone can do it, Trout can.
Predicted Finish: 83-79
Mid-Atlantic Bias 