Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Shin-Soo Choo
Potential Fatal Flaw: Being managed by Dusty Baker
Ceiling: NL Central champion
Floor: Taking a vacation in Early October
Overall: Cincinnati was involved in one of the more peculiar offseason trades. They traded a shortstop prospect to Arizona, Arizona traded their top prospect Cleveland, and Cleveland traded an aging corner outfielder to Cincinnati. Cleveland was the clear winner in that trade. Arizona gave up a lot of upside for a guy who will probably be their shortstop for a long time, but won’t win many Silver Sluggers. Cleveland gave up a 30 year old outfielder for an elite pitching prospect, and Cincinnati traded a solid defensive shortstop for a guy they’re going to try to play out of position (it’s worth mentioning that Cincinnati also gave up Drew Stubbs in the trade. No wait. It’s not.).
The plus side is that if Shin-Soo Choo doesn’t work out in center (he won’t) there’s Chris Heisey. Heisey is a capable enough player who could probably have moved into centerfield on his own. That would move Choo to left, taking over for Ryan Ludwick, who had his first productive season in 2012 since 2008. I don’t expect that to continue. You know, because of logic.
It’s an error on my part to not mention Joey Votto until now. There’s no player I’d rather have at the plate for one at-bat than Votto. And yes, I’m very fond of walks, because there’s nothing wrong with a good walk. Votto walked 94 times last year and struck out 85 times. He was on-base 47% of the time. Votto, for whatever reason, gets some criticism (probably not the correct term. Detractors is more appropriate) because he isn’t a true power hitting first baseman. That’s, of course, incredibly stupid. Give me a team full of guys who get on-base 47% of the time and I’ll probably win a championship or two.
On the mound, Cincinnati is led by Johnny Cueto, who, despite not being a true strikeout pitcher, has developed into a true #1 starter. The high WHIPs of his early career appear to be a thing of the past, as he’s done a great job of throwing more strikes.
For Cincinnati, the biggest storyline this offseason wasn’t the trade for Choo, it was who was going to be their fifth starter. The Reds signed highly coveted Cuban fireballer Aroldis Chapman in 2010. Most people assumed they would develop him into a starter. Chapman has made 137 appearances in his career and exactly 0 starts. This week, the Reds announced that he would close this season, giving the fifth spot in the rotation to Mike Leake. This is a mistake, of course. For as good as Chapman has been as a closer, his value would be that much higher as a 25-30 start pitcher. Of course, he wouldn’t continue throwing 103 MPH fastballs. He’d probably have to work in the 97 MPH range. That speed is still more than viable and with Chapman’s slider as an out pitch, there’s just not a lot of sense in having him throw 65 innings.
The move of Chapman to the bullpen relates to the fatal flaw, as well as the wrap-up of this section. The Reds are managed by Dusty Baker. Baker is historically rough, as a manager, on starting pitchers. There’s not a lot of rotational depth for Cincinnati. Frankly, the rotation isn’t great after Cueto and Mat Latos. An injury to one starter puts the Reds in a real bind. The offense is certainly good enough to contend, which they should do. I just don’t know that there’s enough rotational strength to get anywhere beyond a division crown.
Predicted Finish: 86-76
Mid-Atlantic Bias 