Biggest Offseason Acquisition: James Shields
Potential Fatal Flaw: Starting pitching
Ceiling: AL Wild Card
Floor: 4th in the AL Central
Overall: I’ve become famous, in my own mind, for overselling the Kansas City Royals. Every year seems like it’s going to be “the year” that the fans of Kansas City get to watch their team finally put it all together and make a serious run at the playoffs.
And every year, I’m wrong.
The Royals have done a terrific job of building their team through the draft. Unfortunately, that hasn’t paid dividends. Instead, the Royals have been fairly unlucky. Injuries have side-tracked top pitching prospects Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery in recent years. That left Kansas City with a few holes to fill in the rotation, especially at the top, where they have been “led” in recent years by Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis.
So Kansas City went out and took a huge risk this offseason. It was an out-of-character move for an organization that had played it safe for years, sitting on their very good farm system, waiting for those players to develop. The Royals traded their top prospect, Wil Myers and upper echelon pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi to the Tampa Bay Rays for James Shields. Trading two prospects of Myers’ and Odorizzi’s caliber is a huge gamble when you’re getting back a pitcher, like Shields, who is perceived to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Shields is a very durable starter. He hasn’t started fewer than 30 games since 2006. And he’s developed into a legitimate strikeout pitcher. But the other metrics tell a different story. His park-adjusted ERA (ERA+) is 107 for his career (think of 100 as an average mark and 110 being the line of demarcation for a “good” pitcher). He gives up a lot of hits, which contributes to the career WHIP of 1.22. Neither of those numbers are “ace-like.” They’re good, certainly, but they’re not really the numbers you want from a 31 year old pitcher who you had to give up two high-level prospects to get.
The other offseason pickup for Kansas City is Ervin Santana. Ervin Santana is another perception pitcher. I think when people hear the name “Ervin Santana” they think he’s a good pitcher because he’s a recognizable name. But outside of his 2008 season, Santana has been a league-average, or worse,pitcher. Last year, Santana was awful in Anaheim. He gave up a career-high 39 homers. He only struck out 133 batters (in 30 starts), and he racked up a 1.27 WHIP. He’s being slotted into the #2 spot in the Kansas City rotation and the expectations, I think , are that he’ll pitch like a number two starter. Which could be troublesome.
The rest of the rotation (Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Wade Davis) is not worth much paragraph space. So I won’t waste it.
Offensively is where I think the Royals can really excel. Yes, they’re giving Jeff Francoeur (truly one of the worst players in baseball) 600 plate appearances this season. That’s going to hurt. But elsewhere, the Royals are exciting and young. And good.
Eric Hosmer was an exceptional hitter last season. Unfortunately, the season I’m talking about is the 2012 spring training season. During the regular season, he was awful. His swing was different. His approach was poor, and his numbers reflected that. He’s back to tearing up Cactus League pitching this spring training, but the swing looks better. I really think he’s going to join forces with Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, and Salvador Perez to form the most exciting young lineup in the American League. Royals games are going to be exciting in 2013. And they’ll need the offense, and especially the 23 year old Hosmer, to carry the team. Because the pitching won’t.
The AL Central is a tough division, maybe the best in the American League. Cleveland is much better and the AL Champion Detroit Tigers are improved too. Kansas City probably slots into the 3-spot in the division. But if the offense steps up its game and James Shields pitches like he did in 2011, Kansas City could surprise a lot of people and earn a spot in the playoffs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Repeatedly.
Predicted Finish: 82-80
Mid-Atlantic Bias 