Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Ben Revere
Potential Fatal Flaw: Long lines for the early bird special in the infield
Ceiling: 3rd in the NL East
Floor: 3rd in the NL East
Overall: If Delmon Young were a good person, or a good player, I’d say that his unavailability at the start of the year would hurt the Phillies, but I actually think it will help them. They’ll start the year with Ben Revere, John Mayberry, and Domonic Brown (who is as bad a fielder as Young for what that’s worth) in the outfield, and one would have to presume that will remain when Young is ready. Brown is long overdue for a real shot at being an everyday player. Though if there’s one impatient, bumbling manager in baseball who’s going to replace a talented, young hitter after an 0-for-4 day, with an old, unskilled white guy (Laynce Nix), it’s Charlie Manuel.
The infield is the weakness here. Save for 2002 (which was 11 years ago), Michael Young has been at or below replacement-level as a fielder. Without the benefit of the the designated hitter, the Phillies will play Young at third base, a position he is supremely unqualified to play. Offensively, Young swings at too many pitches, grounds into too many double plays, and at this point in his career, is merely a singles hitter. Last year his OPS of .682 placed him 128 out of 144 qualified hitters. Combine that with his awful defense, when he wasn’t DHing, and Young was worth 2 ½ fewer wins than a replacement level player. He’s the entrenched starting 3rd baseman.
Elsewhere, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return for the next installment of “As The DL Turns.” Utley hasn’t played in more than 115 games since 2009. Howard hasn’t been worth more than one win above replacement since that season. Howard played in only 71 games last year after breaking his leg in the Phillies 2011 postseason elimination game. And he was, in a word, bad.
Utley is 34. Young is 36. Howard is 33. Jimmy Rollins is 34. Behind them is Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen. In other words, not a whole lot of depth. And there’s no one in the Phillies really poor minor league system who can be of help in the immediate future.
In the rotation, the trio of Halladay, Hamels, and Lee is not what it once was, with the decline in Roy Halladay’s stuff. Halladay has lost average velocity on his fastball each of the last 3 seasons and is certainly coming off his worst year as a professional since he was 23 and pitching in Toronto. Now, Halladay is 35. There was much more hope for a bounce back from 23 year old Roy then there is for 35 year old Roy. Statistics aside, Halladay has not looked very good this spring either and frankly, could be done at this point, putting an end to a really great career.
Hamels and Lee are still great pitchers and will be the linchpins of any success that Philadelphia has this season. They’ll have to be. Behind them are Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan. The Phillies will need to get contributions from Howard and Utley, sure, but they will need Hamels and Lee to pitch their absolute best (which could net either an NL Cy Young) if they’re going to think about competing for a Wild Card berth.
They won’t compete for a Wild Card berth. Not even close.
Predicted Finish: 76-86
Mid-Atlantic Bias 