Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Not applicable
Potential Fatal Flaw: Middle infield
Ceiling: World Series champion
Floor: Just missing the playoffs
Overall: Up the middle, with the antichrist Pete Kozma and second baseman Daniel DeScalso, the Cardinals are not very good.
Everywhere else, including on their disabled list and in their minor league system, they are.
The Cardinals are really good. Like any team, they’ll need to have some lucky with injuries, which they’ve yet to have this calendar year. They’ll start the year without the services of third baseman David Freese, shortstop Rafael Furcal, closer Jason Motte, and rotation stalwart Chris Carpenter, whose career is likely over. Even with those losses, the Cardinals are still a formidable bunch.
I might find him to be a really annoying player, but it’s hard to argue against Yadier Molina. He’s probably the game’s best defensive catcher (at least until Christian Bethancourt becomes Atlanta’s full time catcher). Some day, he may become the first manager of an American sports franchise with neck tattoos. That’s something.
While Allen Craig has had a difficult time staying healthy during his playing career, you can’t argue against the results when he has been healthy. His OPS+ in 2011 was 151, while it dropped a bit to a still impressive 137 last season. He hits for power and he doesn’t strike out a lot. That more than makes up for shaky defense.
While losing David Freese’s career .363 on-base percentage for a few weeks will hurt, they’re replacing him with the fairly capable Matt Carpenter (.365 on-base in his rookie season last year).
Jon Jay might have no power in his bat, but he is the ideal leadoff hitter for this lineup, coming off a career year in 2012 that saw him get on-base at a .373 clip. He doesn’t steal a lot of bases, but that’s frankly a good thing with Craig, and Jay’s two outfield partners, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday, batting behind him.
It’s worth noting because of the relative fragility of Beltran that the Cardinals have Oscar Tavares at AAA Memphis, waiting in the wings to take over for Beltran if he gets hurt. Tavares’ most common comp is Vladimir Guerrero. He’s rated as a top 5 prospect by a number of publications. And he leads a minor league organization that is regarded by most experts as the best in baseball.
The rotation is solid. There’s not a lot of depth in the event of an injury and while Jake Westbrook isn’t an ideal Major League starter, he’s perfectly fine at the back end of a rotation on a team as good as the Cardinals. Westbrook will pitch alongside Adam Wainwright (recently signed to a long-term extension), Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller, and Lance Lynn. Is the starting pitching the best in the National League? Certainly not. It’s definitely the weakest link on the team. But I don’t see that becoming a problem.
Really, I don’t see much of any problem with the Cardinals. Even their bullpen is very good with live arms throughout. They didn’t make any real offseason move, because they didn’t have to. With a system this good, feeding a big league club this good, St. Louis is smart to stay pat and save some money. St. Louis’ ceiling is as high as any team’s. If they can recover from their current injuries and stave off too many disabled list trips, they’ll contend with Washington to be the National League’s best team.
Predicted Finish: 94-68
Mid-Atlantic Bias 