Last year, I tried something new with my NBA mock draft. That is to say, I didn’t try to do a mock draft. Instead, I did a “Big Board.” As I wrote last year, the NBA Draft is a fluid event. There are lots of trades, so it’s difficult to project who will be available for teams. Last year, I hit on my top 3, for the most part (Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard). I missed on Andre Drummond, Kendall Marshall, and perhaps on John Henson who came on late in the year and looks like he might be a fixture in Milwaukee until his contract expires and he gets to go somewhere that’s not Milwaukee.
Most experts do not like this draft. There is no one in this group who they think easily projects as a future perennial All-Star or Hall of Fame player. No LeBron. No Durant. No Andrew Wiggins. There are a handful of guys who will be good starters for 10 years. Some will be able to win Sixth Man of Defensive Player of the Year awards. Others might win a dunk contest or a three point shootout. Basically, you’ll know some of these names in a decade, but it’s unlikely any of them will be dominating the NBA. That said, Paul Pierce was the 10th pick in his draft and he’s going to the Hall of Fame some day. Certain players, certain TYPES of players, flourish in specific environments. Whomever gets drafted first overall by the Cavs is coming in to a great situation and should be able to excel. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Charlotte Hornet Bobcats…
Without further ado, my rankings of the lottery players, in my mind, followed by some other list-making. Because, really, I don’t see 30 guys in this draft who are going to be household names in 5 years and I’d like to make this remotely fun to write and read.
1. Victor Oladipo (SG/Indiana): Oladipo’s skill set gives him the best chance of this class to be an All-Star in the NBA. His ability as an on-ball defender should not disappear as he transitions to the NBA. His offensive game is a step behind his defensive game, but he showed vast improvements from his sophomore to junior seasons on that front. He’s already a great slasher. If he can develop a really consistent mid-range shot and improve as a ball handler, he has potential to be a top 5 PG down the line. There’s incredible room to grow with Oladipo. Supremely athletic. Plays hard. A solid building block.
2. Trey Burke (PG/Michigan): I enjoyed watching no player more than Trey Burke during the 2012-13 college basketball season. He lacks the size you’d like from an NBA player. My guess is that with what he did in college, if he were 2 inches taller, he’d be thought of as a top pick (Cleveland will not be drafting a point guard as they have a very good one already in Kyrie Irving). Burke can shoot, defend, and pass. Does he do any of them exceptionally well? Probably not. But he does all of them well. And he also has the leader trait that you want to see from a point guard. Burke showed in the tournament this year that he’s not going to shy away from taking the big shot. He’s a fighter and those are the types of players I think you need to build around in the NBA.
3. Otto Porter (SF/Georgetown): Think of Porter as the small forward version of Burke. He does everything, just nothing exceptionally well. He’ll be a valuable player on the glass considering his size. And you certainly won’t lose anything on the defensive side of the ball where he was dominant in the Big East. He’s not going to shoot the lights out of the gym, certainly. But he’s a really good building block, just without the upside of Oladipo. And as a sidebar, he’s the guy who I think makes the most sense for Cleveland with the top overall pick as they’re weakest at the 3 spot and don’t really have much room in their rotation for Oladipo or Burke.
4. CJ McCollum (PG/Lehigh): McCollum is a slashing point guard, with size, who scored at will as a four-year starter at Lehigh. He missed the latter half of this season with a broken foot, but is healthy now and could slot in, Game 1, as a starter for a number of lottery teams who lack a point guard. He’ll also rebound well for his position. I look at him as a sort of Damian Lillard-light. On a really bad team, he could be their best player. A potential Rookie of the Year.
5. Nerlens Noel (C/Kentucky): Noel would be the consensus number 1 draft pick (though not necessarily my no. 1, as though that means something) if he hadn’t torn his ACL in the middle of Kentucky’s disappointing 2012-13 season. Noel is a defensive force. His offensive game is not very well developed though. He’s a good passer, but his shooting is very poor. He’s a project for whomever drafts him. I think there’s little to no chance that he’s an impact rookie. But down the line, if he can develop some sort of offensive game, he’ll be a very good NBA player.
6. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG/Georgia): Caldwell-Pope is the best outside shooter in this draft. He’s also got great size as a 2-guard and is a really solid defender. His mid-range game needs some work. He’s probably not going to become much of a penetration type player either, as his dribbling is not of the And1 Mixtape quality. It’s not really of the New Balance 574 quality either. But he’ll bring a lot of value on both sides of the ball, certainly enough to make up for his deficiencies.
7. Anthony Bennett (PF/UNLV): Bennett would be higher if he was bigger. I’m usually not one to harp on size, but Bennett, at 6’8” is not an NBA power forward. He’s also coming off of rotator cuff surgery. That said, he really scored in the Mountain West. He can shoot it from anywhere on the court, despite his size and frame (he’s, um, thick). He doesn’t look like an NBA-caliber leaper, but he’s very athletic. Bennett is the reverse of Trey Burke. If he were an inch shorter and 35 pounds lighter, he’d project nicely as a 3. As it stands, he’ll have to develop a low-post game to be really successful in the NBA.
8. Ben McLemore (SG/Kansas): If Kansas had missed the 2013 tournament, you might be looking at a much higher draft pick. Instead, Kansas made the tournament. Whether Ben McLemore played is still being determined. McLemore was a potential National Player of the Year candidate during the regular season. But once the tournament came around, he struggled mightily to score, get open, and to be blunt, be useful, to the Jayhawks. That said, as I look at the pool of players in this draft, it’s hard to find one with a better skill set than McLemore’s. He’s an electric scorer with exceptional athleticism and some real defensive prowess. Yes, the psychological factors (whether the pressure leads him to wilt) will have to play into any team’s decision to draft McLemore. But if you chalk his March up to two bad weeks and choose instead to focus on the 4 successful months, you’re getting a steal at the number 8 spot. I’m just not entirely convinced.
9. Shabazz Muhammad (SF/UCLA): Muhammad’s “career” at UCLA was a bizarre one. He came onto campus as the most recognizable freshman in the country and a favorite to be the top pick in this draft. He’s leaving as a mid-to-late first round pick, probably. And yet, he played well at UCLA. Muhammad averaged 18 points and 5 rebounds per game on a dysfunctional UCLA team. Are there flaws in his game? AB-SO-LUTELY. Muhammad has no right hand yet. He’s not interested in passing the basketball. He is not one of the aforementioned potential dunk contest winners (that is to say, he’s not a freak athlete). All of that aside, Muhammad is a scorer. Outside of McCollum, he’s probably the best pure scorer in this draft. He can drive to the basket, he plays hard, and he can defend. He’s a little undersized for his NBA position (small forward), but his ability to slash and the on-ball skills he has will make up for that. He’s kind of a project. He had a few moments where he behaved poorly on the court, most noticeably sulking after a teammate hit a game-winning shot because the teammate didn’t pass to Muhammad. He’ll require some good, patient coaching, but he could be a very valuable player in the league.
10. Jamaal Franklin (SG/San Diego State): Franklin is my first real reach here. Most everyone else you see above will be a lottery pick. Franklin probably won’t. That said, a handful of the guys who will be lottery picks won’t be very good pros. Franklin is a very athletic player with all of the measurables that you want from an NBA 2-guard. He rebounds very well for his position, and while he doesn’t have a great outside shot, he will score by using his speed and vision to drive the ball to the basket.
11. Gorgui Dieng (C/Louisville): One of the knocks I’ve seen on Dieng is that he’s old. He’s 23. For a league obsessed with size, I’m really surprised to see Dieng getting so little love. The player I saw at Louisville was a high impact guy with a developing offensive game who could really control the paint on the defensive end with his shot blocking ability. On top of that, Dieng passes the ball well for his size. He’s never going to develop into Shaq down low, but his improving ability to step out and hit a 13 foot shot makes a player with his “secondary” skill set very intriguing and in normal circumstances, a lottery pick.
12. Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG/Michigan): If I told you there was a 6’6” shooting guard who played at a big time college program and averaged 15 points a game while shooting 37% from 3, you’d assume he’d be held in some sort of regard. Unfortunately for Tim Hardaway Jr., he has his dad’s name. With that comes people’s misguided expectations for how good you’re supposed to be and who you’re supposed to be. Junior is not a point guard. He’s not excellent at handling the basketball. He’s not lightning quick. And he’s not an off-the-charts passer. What he is, is a player who can get his own shot, who can hit his shots from anywhere on the court, and knows how to get to the basket.
13. Michael Carter-Williams (PG/Syracuse): Every year, Syracuse has a player that I just don’t like. For 10 years, it was Eric Devendorf. For 14 years, it was Gerry McNamara. Last season, it was Michael Carter-Williams. The best thing that MCW has going for him is his size. He’s a true point guard, with his passing being his top attribute, playing at 6’6”. He is not a good shooter, however (sub-40% from the field, 29% from 3). Few players become a better outside shooter in the NBA than they were in college, what with the distance being greater. Carter-Williams also turned the ball over 3 ½ times per game during his sophomore year. I look at him and don’t see how he turns himself into an NBA starter at point guard, and yet, I have a hard time finding someone who I like more than him at this point.
14. European Player (PG/SG/SF): European Player is quick, but needs to add some strength and develop a more consistent jump shot. European Player doesn’t have much of a low post game. European Player competes against lesser competition, but brings a high IQ and terrific passing skills. European Player might not play this season, but has some real upside for the team who is willing to take the risk that he won’t pan out.
THE CENTERS:
(The NBA loves size. It’s hard to teach a player to be 7 feet tall. We all get that. But NBA teams fall in love with players who aren’t particularly skilled. There are a bunch of those guys who all project to be first rounders this year. One of them is even projected by some to be the top overall pick. Without further ado, THE CENTERS!
1. Mason Plumlee (Duke): Plumlee has the most offensive skill of all THE CENTERS! He can put the ball on the floor, possesses real athleticism, and improved this season as a rebounder. He will not be a star center in the NBA, but outside of Dieng, he has the best chance of being a contributor.
2. Jeff Withey (Kansas): He was a shot blocking maestro at KU and should still be a good shot blocker in the NBA. His offensive game is not very developed and never will be. But he’s tall and has a track record of success.
3. Alex Len (Maryland): Len may be the first pick in Thursday’s draft. He’s tall. 7’1” even. I look at Len and I see no way in which he fits into today’s NBA. He has no physicality whatsoever. He’s not a great defender. And he’s not a great outside shooter (not that the NBA really favors 7 footers who do that anymore, thankfully). It will be a shame if the Cavs draft Len with the first overall pick because he “fills a need.” Cleveland is one piece and a healthy Kyrie Irving away from being a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Len is never going to be a useful center to anyone in the NBA…
4. Steven Adams (Pittsburgh): …and yet, he’s not even the worst of the projected first round centers. I’m not going to lie, I’ve seen every one of the above players in this post play a game multiple times. When I looked at other mock drafts and player raters, I didn’t remember ever seeing Steven Adams play. So I looked at some evaluations of him. It was there that I saw the phrase “looks completely lost on offense” (Chad Ford, ESPN). As a freshman at Pittsburgh, he averaged 7 points and 6 rebounds per game. He also shot 44% from the free throw line. He’s projected by some experts to be a lottery pick. I love the NBA!
THE (FOREIGN) CENTERS:
(Because if there’s one thing the NBA loves more than centers, it’s centers from Serbia and Montenegro.)
I have no idea who any of these players are. Their names are Lucas Nogueira (Brazil) and Rudy Gobert (France). I’ve never seen them play. They can’t be as bad as Steven Adams.
THE OTHER GUYS:
(I like them for no other reason than I watched them a lot and they have one or two discernible skills that could make them useful. 3 at every position (except center) who I would happily draft in the second round, if I were an NBA GM instead of whatever it is that I am.)
POINT GUARDS1. Myck Kabongo (Texas): Very fast. Excellent passer. Sat out his sophomore year because the NCAA is a horrible organization only concerned with their own bottom line.
2. Isaiah Canaan (Murray State): An excellent shooter. He’s the poor man’s Damian Lillard.
3. Nate Wolters (South Dakota State): Very good ball handler. Good outside shooter.
SHOOTING GUARDS
1. Ricardo Ledo (Providence): Would be a lottery pick if not for off-the-court issues. May be the best pure scorer in this draft outside of the lottery.
2. Reggie Bullock (North Carolina): Great outside shooter. Not much else.
3. Allen Crabbe (California): Great outside shooter. Bullock just offers better size.
SMALL FORWARDS
1. DeShaun Thomas (Ohio State): Great rebounder as a 3. Shoots well from outside.
2. Andre Roberson (Colorado): Hustle and motor. Rebounds well despite lack of size.
3. Tony Snell (New Mexico): Outside shooting. Could develop into a Bruce Bowen type if he develops defensively.
POWER FORWARDS
(See Below)
3. Trevor Mbakwe (Minnesota): He’ll give an NBA team 12-15 minutes of ferocity every night. Great rebounder, maybe the best in the draft. He’s here because he lacks any semblance of height or offensive skill. He’s the hobo’s Kenneth Faried.
CODY ZELLER v. KELLY OLYNYK
(or, let’s compare the tall white guys)
Both are 7’0”. Neither has the size or game to be an NBA center. Kelly has the greater reach. Cody has a greater wingspan. Cody is the faster guy. He runs the floor like a small forward. And he’s deceptively athletic. Olynyk has a more skilled offensive game thanks to his shooting range. Neither is going to be a good NBA rebounder or shot blocker. The battle here boils down to which guy you think will be the more useful offensive player. And that really boils down to the team they land with. If Cody ends up with a team like Golden State, who likes to run, he’ll find a spot in the rotation. If Kelly lands with a team like Indiana, who plays more of a half court game, he’ll be very useful to them. For the sake of picking one, I’d rather have Cody because of his athletic ability and the room I see for him to develop his skills and size. Olynyk is probably just about as good as he’s going to be right now.
There you have it. The NBA Draft is always on the very short list of my favorite sporting events of the year. As always, thanks for reading. Have an issue? See a mistake? Let me know below or on the social medias (@midatlanticbias).
Mid-Atlantic Bias 