A strange thing happened last year on the way to Miami Gardens. For the first time in my recollective mind, I stopped caring passionately about college football. I was trying to come up with a way to phrase that so it didn’t sound so dramatic, but that’s really it. I stopped caring. My entire life, I lived for Saturdays in the fall. That’s not an exaggeration. I planned my life around college football games. If you were having a party on a Saturday night and there was a relevant game on, I’m sorry that I did not attend. If I came up with an excuse, it was likely just a cover so I could listen to Brent Musburger say, “You are looking live…”
I’m not sure what it was that made me less interested. It’s probably not one thing. Really getting into the English Premier League affected it. The number of off-the-field transgressions from players has really soured me. My growing awareness of how terrible of an organization the NCAA is certainly had something to do with it. The BCS. Getting older and not being a social sports watcher was a big impediment too. In short, if there’s a big game on, I want to watch it alone. And as you get older, but not quite “old,” it’s really difficult to rationalize to your friends the sentiment of, “No, I don’t want to go out, I have to watch Clemson and Florida State in my living room, thanks.” It’s alienating.
Oh, and last year was really boring. There’s that too. Last year was so boring and there was such a dearth of good teams that Northern Illinois University played in the Orange Bowl. And got destroyed. Texas A&M was probably the best team in the country (after all, they had one shot against Alabama and they won it, in Tuscaloosa) but the best they could do was the Cotton Bowl (?…I guess…it’s not even worth looking up). Stanford was really good too and came on at the end of the season under the leadership of Kevin Hogan at QB. I don’t remember what bowl Stanford played in. It wasn’t the National Championship though.
No, that honor went to Alabama and Notre Dame. Alabama carried one loss into the game, but also carried near-losses to LSU and Georgia. Notre Dame, ironically, made the National Championship because of an undefeated season that included a referee error that took a win away from Stanford in South Bend. Notre Dame was not the second best team in the country and it showed, as they lost to Alabama by 4 touchdowns, or nearly as much as Florida Atlantic lost by in Tuscaloosa.
When I realized how flawed the 2012 season was, I kept talking about how exciting the 2013 season would be. And I’m still slightly on board with that logic. Alabama is clearly the best team in the country. But there are a number of other teams fighting to be the second best team, for the right to play Alabama in lovely Pasadena, California in January and lose by 3 touchdowns. Here are their cases, presented in no particular order:
1.) Ohio State Buckeyes
The Case For: Ohio State finished the 2012 regular season undefeated. They did not play in a bowl game however, because, tattoos. They return “quarterback” Braxton Miller (sorry, “leading rusher” Braxton Miller) as well as their top two receivers. And their schedule is very, very easy. Like, so easy that their toughest road game will come against Northwestern (sorry Michigan fans, but I can’t get behind the Wolverines).
The Case Against: Juice Williams. Okay, Juice is no longer at Illinois, but I remember driving home from a UNH/UMass football game in 2007, listening to the radio, shocked by what Illinois was doing in Columbus against the top ranked Buckeyes. Last year’s Ohio State team might have finished the season without a loss, but they had near-losses to Cal, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, and most notably, Purdue and Wisconsin (in overtime). The 2007 Buckeyes were a very good football team facing a matchup problem in Illinois. The 2013 Buckeyes are a beatable team with an easy schedule. Urban Meyer will have to keep his team focused every week, no matter the opponent. And I don’t feel absolute confidence in Braxton Miller’s ability to lead a team with a target on its back.
2.) Oregon
The Case For: That schedule. They don’t play a single team with a chance to play in a decent bowl until UCLA in late October.
The Case Against: The schedule includes a trip to Palo Alto, California the following week to play the Stanford Cardinal
3.) Stanford
The Case For: That schedule. They don’t play a single team with chance at a decent bowl until UCLA in mid-October.
The Case Against: The schedule includes a home game (that you may have heard about) against Oregon in early November.
The Stanford/Oregon games in the previous two seasons have been bizarre affairs. The 2011 Cardinal were 9-0 when they welcomed Oregon into Stanford Stadium and were led by Andrew Luck. They got housed.
Last year, in Eugene, Oregon entered the Stanford game 10-0 and facing the high likelihood of a BCS Championship game against Alabama. Instead, Stanford, led by a freshman quarterback, played an NFC North-esque game against the Ducks and won 17-14 in overtime.
If the trend is to continue, Oregon should win this year’s game, but I don’t think that will happen. Both teams will be undefeated coming into their matchup. Stanford did to Oregon last year what few other teams have done: slowed them down. Kevin Hogan, in his first full season as a starter, is going to be a star. I expect the Ducks to leave Palo Alto with a loss this time around.
4.) Georgia
The Case For: Veteran quarterback. Incredibly talented, young defense. Todd Gurley.
The Case Against: They play two top 10 teams in the first two games of the season: at Clemson this Saturday then hosting South Carolina the following Saturday. If Georgia survives that gauntlet, they’ll be undefeated when they play Alabama in the SEC Championship. They won’t survive that gauntlet..
5.) South Carolina
The Case For: Jadeveon Clowney. Only one difficult road game. HBC.
The Case Against: I don’t think the offense is good enough to get it done. The defense will keep the Gamecocks in every game. They won’t necessarily be a pretty team to watch if you prefer Big XII-style football. Much like with Florida (who I won’t include here because their offense is a joke and they stand no chance of making it to the promised land) there aren’t enough playmakers on offense. I do not trust Connor Shaw to win a tight game, either on the road or at home. I think the Gamecocks go down to Athens and leave bruised with a 13-10 defeat.
6.) Louisville
The Case For: Ohio, Eastern Kentucky, Kentucky, Florida International, Temple, Rutgers, Central Florida, South Florida, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati.
The Case Against: Louisville strikes me as a team that will finish third in the BCS with a perfect record but a resume more flimsy than mine when I left college. Which is a shame because Teddy Bridgewater is going to contend for the Heisman and Louisville can play real football. Their defense is not an asset, but it’s good enough that they won’t have to rely entirely on the offense.
7.) Texas A&M
The Case For: Some would say Johnny Football, but I’m just a little leery that his 2013 isn’t going to be quite like his 2012.
The Case Against: Manziel lost his offensive coordinator, left tackle, and his most reliable wide receiver and has spent the entire offseason in the spotlight and he does not really give me a ton of confidence that he’ll be able to just tune all that noise out.
8.) Florida State
The Case For: They play in the ACC.
The Case Against: Road games at Clemson and at Florida. Also a freshman quarterback. And I know, we’re only supposed to praise Jameis Winston because he’s funny and a great baseball player, but he’s still a freshman quarterback and I know that Johnny Manziel was a freshman last year, but if I have to bet on a freshman quarterback succeeding in a place like Gainesville, I’m going to go the other way.
9.) Clemson
The Case For: Relatively easy conference schedule. Veteran quarterback. Dynamic playmaker. A defense chock full of 5-star recruits. A head coach named Dabo.
The Case Against: Well, they are Clemson. And it’s a challenging non-conference schedule with Georgia and South Carolina. That said, I think they use their LSU formula from the Hate Chikin Bowl last year and take it to Georgia on Saturday. Clemson’s offense is going to be one of the best in the nation and they’ll showcase that. And there’s a hunger there. This is a team that keeps improving, especially after their embarrassing loss to West Virginia in the 2012 Orange Bowl. In short, I don’t know what the “case against” is and I think Clemson finds their way to Pasadena in January.
Yes, I’m out on a bit of a limb (Clemson is currently 25:1 to win the national championship), but I’ve really liked the progress in the Clemson program and I think last year’s win over LSU will be a huge carryover. This team played a great SEC defense and beat them soundly. We’ll know how good they are on Saturday night. If they beat Georgia, Alabama is looking at their opponent in January, albeit an opponent they will defeat because they’re the best team in the country and Nick Saban does not relent.
Heisman Guys:
1. TJ Yeldon (RB/Alabama): Under the radar a bit because of AJ McCarron, but Yeldon is capable of carrying this team, regardless of the fact that McCarron is under center. He’s an electric running back. Just a pleasure to watch.
2. Tajh Boyd (QB/Clemson): He’ll protect the ball and make deep throws to Sammy Watkins. You’ll be looking at some incredible passing numbers at the end of the season.
3. Teddy Bridgewater (QB/Louisville): Probably the best QB in the country, unfortunately playing for a team from a conference that was just created. That will hurt him even if his numbers don’t.
4. Jadeveon Clowney (DE/South Carolina): He’ll get to New York, but it’s going to be very hard for him to live up to the hype, which is absurd. He’s the best player in college football at his position, hands down, but his position is still D-End.
5. Braxton Miller (QB/Ohio State): I’m just listing him here because I am required to under Braxton Miller Law, the current rule of our country, whereby one must heap unwarranted praise on a QB who is a terrible downfield passer.
Total Wild Card: Chuckie Keeton (QB/Utah State): When Utah State goes into Los Angeles on September 21st and beats USC, remember you read this.
The Other BCS Bowls:
Rose Bowl: Stanford v. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Louisville
Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Oregon
Some Random Predictions:
-Brett Hundley will throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 500 yards at UCLA, but won’t be invited to New York because he plays west of Columbus, Ohio.
-Utah State (26th best offense, 7th best defense in 2012) will go undefeated, despite games at Utah, at USC, and against Boise State. They’ll still, somehow, miss out on a BCS bowl.
-Any talk about LSU being a contender will be put to bed on Saturday night when they lose to TCU.
-Boise State loses 3 games this season (Washington, Utah State, and Fresno State)
-Ohio State’s random loss that keeps them from playing Alabama: at home to Penn State
-100 points will be scored when Baylor plays Oklahoma State on November 23.
-Oregon covers against Nicholls State on Saturday. The line is currently Oregon (-59).
-Notre Dame finishes the season 6-6. We all forget that they played for the national title last year.
-I’ll watch more college football this season than I did last season.
Mid-Atlantic Bias 