Last year, I thought the Bears were going to win the Super Bowl. The year before, I thought Mark Sanchez was going to take a big step forward and lead the Jets to the promised land.
Standing here now (I’m actually sitting at my dining room table), that sounds absolutely preposterous. Downright stupid.
The 2012 Chicago Bears did not make the playoffs. They finished 10-6, but lost in a tiebreaker to the Minnesota Vikings, who nearly had to turn to McLeod Bethel-Thompson in their lone playoff game.
The 2011 New York Jets finished 8-8, missed the playoffs, and didn’t see Mark Sanchez become the second coming of Matt Schaub.
It’s no great revelation that I am less than adept at making sports predictions. I’m darn good at watching sports and having opinions about sports and knowing facts about sports (as well as run-on sentences), but I’m not good when it comes to using facts to make hypotheses that turn out to be correct.
So, that being said, how about you waste your time reading my predictions about NFL teams!!!
I’ll do this a little differently, writing a blurb about each team and then listing standings and my Super Bowl pick (Oakland over Tampa Bay, probably) below those blurbs.
AFC EAST:
Buffalo Bills: I’m not saying that I think EJ Manuel will be a major flop in the NFL, but that’s actually the exact thing I’m saying.
Miami Dolphins: One of my surprise teams. If they can get a running game out of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas, I think they’ll have a potent enough offense to be really competitive. And the defense isn’t bad. Their ceiling is that of a playoff team. And I don’t think their floor is very low.
New England Patriots: I run the risk of going too hard against the conventional wisdom here, but the defensive secondary is as porous as ever. The offense will be fine with the cast of fringe FBS rookies surrounding Tom Brady, but this is not a Super Bowl contender.
New York Jets: The Jets also are not a Super Bowl contender.
AFC NORTH:
Baltimore Ravens: They got younger, which is something they really needed to do. On the defensive side of the ball, they also got better. On the offensive side of the ball, they’re not. Significantly not.
Cincinnati Bengals: Maybe it’s the high from Hard Knocks, but this is one of the two best teams in the AFC. There aren’t a lot of real holes. If someone (likely Mohamed Sanu) can be a viable second receiving option, this team can go very far.
Cleveland Browns: I love their defense. There aren’t a lot of names you’d recognize (much like the 49ers defense four years ago) but they’re well-rounded. The offense is a bit of a different story. When comparing the two units, think “Of Mice and Men” and “Something David Baldacci wrote.”
Pittsburgh Steelers: Here’s the radar. See under there? That’s the Pittsburgh Steelers. And I have no idea why.
AFC SOUTH:
Houston Texans: If the Texans were a character from “Arrested Development” they’d be Ann Veal. Boring coach. Boring quarterback. Boring (and aging) star receiver. Boring pass rushing extraordinaire. Boring. Also, pretty good.
Indianapolis Colts: If any 2012 team is due for a big regression, it’s this one. They overachieved wildly last year. The defense is not very deep and they probably can’t run the ball. Not a good mix for sustained success.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Call me crazy, but I think they can win 5 games this year. And yes, those are high expectations.
Tennessee Titans: I’m not positive that I can name a single player on their defense without looking it up. [Looks it up] Moving on….
AFC WEST:
Denver Broncos: Losing Von Miller for six games and Elvis Dumervil forever is not a good thing. This team resembles the Peyton Manning Colts. Great passing game. No rushing game. Below average defense.
Kansas City Chiefs: They’re going to win this division after having the first pick in the 2012 draft. I love their offense with Alex Smith at the helm. And the defense is much, much better than you think, especially with 4 games against the following two teams.
Oakland Raiders: Week 14. Raiders at Jets. Be there. Or be significantly happier with your life decisions. Unless you’re Jadeveon Clowney.
San Diego Chargers: Just not a good team.
NFC EAST:
Dallas Cowboys: I am the world’s biggest Tony Romo fan. I love their offense. And I like their defense enough.
New York Giants: A perfectly fine football team.
Philadelphia Eagles: The most interesting team in football. I think the Chip Kelly offense will be really fun to watch AND successful. Everyone is going to run the ball: Vick, McCoy, Bryce Brown, De’Sean Jackson, Brent Celek…okay probably not Brent Celek. They’ll score points and tire a lot of defenses. Now, their defense is another story. There are a lot of players whose names you’d recognize but this unit has never gelled and showed no signs of gelling in the preseason. They will be a disaster.
Washington Redskins: An enigma. I don’t know what to expect. I think their defense overachieved a bit last year. I think the expectations are too high for Robert Griffin. And is Alfred Morris going to be the NFL’s #2 rusher again? I just don’t know.
NFC NORTH:
Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler remains their quarterback. And there’s no one as consistently inconsistent as Jay Cutler. Unlike the Redskins, I feel like I know exactly what to expect from the Bears. They’ll finish 9-7 and just miss the playoffs. The defense will be really good. The offense will throw away a game or two.
Detroit Lions: Love the offense. Hate the defensive secondary. Like, absolutely hate. It’s so awful. Lions games will be fun to watch. So that’s something. Also, Reggie Bush, if healthy for all 16 games in this offense, could be an MVP candidate.
Green Bay Packers: Really good. Still.
Minnesota Vikings: The NFC’s version of the Colts just with a significantly worse quarterback and a significantly better running game. What I’m getting at? Regression.
NFC SOUTH:
Atlanta Falcons: Offensive line concerns and general defensive concerns or potentially electric offense? Pick your poison. The Falcons could go 14-2 or 7-9. And not enough people are falling on the side of 7-9. Yes, this is the era of offense and they play in a division with the Panthers and Saints, but the Falcons are fatally flawed.
Carolina Panthers: Will Cam Newton take the next step? Um, no. He won’t. He’ll always be Cam Newton. There aren’t a lot of weapons around him and the defense isn’t very good. So, you know…
New Orleans Saints: Did all of these teams get together a few years ago and decide to build teams built entirely on offense with incredibly flawed defenses?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hey, something different! A team with an okay defense and an okay offense. Yeah!!!! I can’t get excited about Josh Freeman. He has some real tools around him with Mike Williams, Vincent Jackson, and Doug Martin. The offensive line isn’t great. The defense isn’t necessarily something to write home about. Adding Darrelle Revis is window dressing. He’s not the same player.
NFC WEST:
Arizona Cardinals: A very, very interesting team with Carson Palmer at the helm. The defense is good. The offense is going to be much better. If they can get anything out of noted Osama Bin Laden-enthusiast Rashard Mendenhall, they can sneak into the playoffs. Because the defense is, again, good (and deep).
San Francisco 49ers: I’m a little concerned about their receiver depth. I am not concerned about their defensive depth. Colin Kaepernick could be ordinary and they’d still be a playoff team. Colin Kaepernick is not ordinary.
Seattle Seahawks: How good are the two (probably 3) 49ers/Seahawks games going to be? They’re the two best teams in football and both in the same division. Seattle has similar concerns to the 49ers. Receiving depth, good, but not elite running back, excellent, physical, brash defense. I give the slight edge to the Seahawks because I prefer their offense just a hair more. Especially if Percy Harvin returns in the middle of the season as something resembling Percy Harvin.
St. Louis Rams: Unfortunately for the improving Rams, they play in the best division in football.
STANDINGS (the star means that team will be a “Wild Card” team):
AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins
2. New England Patriots
3. Buffalo Bills
4. New York Jets
AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Pittsburgh Steelers *
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Cleveland Browns
AFC South
1. Houston Texans
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Denver Broncos *
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Oakland Raiders
Wild Card Round:
Pittsburgh over Houston
Denver over Miami
Divisional Round:
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh
Denver over Kansas City
AFC Championship:
Cincinnati over Denver
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. New York Giants*
3. Washington Redskins
4. Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Chicago Bears
3. Detroit Lions
4. Minnesota Vikings
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Carolina Panthers
NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Francisco 49ers*
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. St. Louis Rams
Wild Card Round:
Dallas over New York
San Francisco over Atlanta
Divisional Round:
Seattle over San Francisco
Green Bay over Dallas
NFC Championship:
Seattle over Green Bay
SUPER BOWL 48
Seattle over Cincinnati
AWARDS!
NFL MVP: Russell Wilson
NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Geno Atkins
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Giovani Bernard
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Tyrann Mathieu
NFL Coach of the Year: Andy Reid
Did I really just end this with “Andy Reid?”
Mid-Atlantic Bias 