Month: March 2014

2014 American League Preview (And World Series Prediction)

/ Jason / Leave a comment
Did you miss the 2014 NL Preview? Well, I’m not here to point you in the right direction. Your loss.


AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
Last Season: The New York Yankees, the team of Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, and Shane Spencer finished in FOURTH PLACE (!!!) in the AL East. It was a disastrous season, capped off by their biggest rival, the Boston Red Sox, winning the World Series. But if we have some perspective, the Yankees did finish 3 games above .500 and did play in the best division in baseball.


The Offseason: Nothing really. Except for signing Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Brian Roberts, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka. Other than that, not much.


Potential Breakout Player: The history of Japanese pitchers going directly to New York City is not one rife with great success. Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa set the tone and it’s a rather dull, whining tone. Not pleasant to listen to. I don’t think Masahiro Tanaka will be like that. I expect something much closer to Yu Darvish than Kei Igawa. Tanaka seemed to adjust well during the Spring and has a pitching repertoire more close to that of a number two starter (he’ll start the season as the Yankees number 4). It’ll also probably be helpful for him to have Hiroki Kuroda and resident weirdo Ichiro Suzuki in town to take some of the pressure of the Japanese media off of him. He’s a name we all know, but I expect him to be a contender for Rookie of the Year, which he shouldn’t be eligible for, but I digress.


Additional Comment: You can make a very good argument that the Yankees would be better off with light-hitting, swift-fielding Brendan Ryan at shortstop for the bulk of the season, rather than Derek Jeter, who at this point is both light-hitting and light-fielding. Obviously, in Jeter’s last season, that’s not going to happen. The Yankees are not going to be dominant up the middle, certainly. But there’s some depth there. Kelly Johnson, Jeter, Ryan, and Eduardo Nunez are the weakest part of this team. That’s not too bad, really. If you take what the Yankees did this offseason piece-by-piece, it’s all sort of confusing and weird. It almost reeked of desperation. But when you look at the whole, you’ve got something really impressive. An outfield built on speed (assuming Carlos Beltran is the DH), and two left-handed hitters (I know Beltran is a switch hitter, but he’s far superior from the left side of the plate) taking advantage of a short porch. Losing Robinson Cano seemed like a disaster at the time, but this looks like a team that was put together with a plan to win this year. And I think they will.


At Seasons End…: All will be right with the world and the Yankees will have won the AL East and Derek Jeter will be celebrated as one of the world’s great leaders, etc.


2. Tampa Bay Rays
Last Season: The Rays won the AL play-in game, before falling to the Red Sox in the Wild Card round.


The Offseason: They brought back James Loney and David DeJesus, brought in Ryan Hanigan, and brought back (after a stay in Oakland) closer Grant Balfour. Nothing they did was very sexy, but it was all very Rays-y. That is to say, it will probably work out.


Potential Breakout Player: Last year, it was Wil Myers. This year, I expect it to be Chris Archer. Archer had a very solid rookie season last year. He was 9-7 with a 118 ERA+, and a 1.12 WHIP, all great numbers for an at-the-time 24 year old rookie. And I’m surprised he didn’t get more publicity. I expect him to only get better, especially in the strikeout department.


Additional Comment: I am, of course, partial to the Washington Nationals’ rotation. And I acknowledge that any rotation with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is very good no matter who is filling out the other two slots. The same can be said for the team with Justin “Upton” Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, (I’m jealous. Deal with it.) and Max Scherzer. But Tampa Bay belongs in that conversation as well. Tampa is a team that could legitimately trade David Price and not necessarily skip too many beats. Currently, Jeremy Hellickson, coming off of a terrible season, is the odd man out. Hellickson, even coming off of the season he is, would be in about 15 other teams’ starting rotations. The Rays arms are young and dynamic. And the offense isn’t bad either, with Myers, Evan Longoria, and Ben Zobrist.


At Seasons End…: The Rays will be back in the play-in game and certainly in the hunt for a World Series. Just like they’ve always been (at least it seems that way now).


3. Toronto Blue Jays
Last Season: The Blue Jays were a dominant team from start to finish. I am, of course, talking about the sportswriter prognosticator season. They were, in fact, terrible, in the regular season. Injury plagued and underperforming, the Blue Jays were 2013’s biggest disappointment…


The Offseason: …so they did nothing!


Potential Breakout Player: Maybe I’m just really high on his great Spring Training and the fact that he’s got a wealth of talent, but after two full seasons in the Majors, I think Brett Lawrie is primed for a breakout this season. It’s hard for any player playing in Toronto to catch on nationally, and Lawrie isn’t exactly a sweet, humble guy with a cute media narrative, but I think he’s a name you’ll be hearing more of this season. And for good reasons, finally.


Additional Comment: As difficult as it will be for me, I’m not going to devote this entire section to Colby Rasmus, who I really, really like, even though he’s this generation’s great underachiever in many people’s eyes. The Blue Jays in third place is part me still feeling the after-effects of last Spring’s contact high I caught and part me looking at a roster with Melky Cabrera and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind and Jose Reyes and thinking, “that team is going to hit.” Can they pitch? It all falls on RA Dickey to me. The rest of the rotation is just a giant injury concern. I get that. But this offense, if healthy, has the potential to be historically good. It’s a big “if” but I’m willing to jump out on a limb because roughly 100 people in the world will read this post.


At Seasons End…: The Blue Jays will just miss the playoffs, finishing close to .500 due largely to their lack of starting pitching depth.


4. Baltimore Orioles
Last Season: The Orioles proved the doubters (me) wrong by finishing 3 games above .500, tied with the Yankees, but mourning an injury to their star player, Manny Machado.


The Offseason: They signed Grant Balfour to be their closer, which is interesting because if you’re paying attention, you’ll remember that the Rays did too. And, look, cloning Grant Balfour would be great because you’d get to hear double the f-words between pitches. And who doesn’t love f-words? At least the one that ends in some variation of “uck.” The other one, the homophobic one that slimey trolls use on the internet is a terrible word that should never be used. Anywho, the Orioles signed Balfour, got cold feet, gave him a physical that he magically failed, and watched as a division rival signed him. In addition to that debacle, the Orioles signed Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. They both passed their physicals.


Potential Breakout Player: This seems like a “Not Applicable” situation, as I’ve spent the last two seasons watching Steve Lombardozzi and, well….yeah.


Additional Comment: I don’t hate their rotation, but they paid the Ubaldo Jimenez from the second half of last season and not the Ubaldo Jimenez who actually exists in this world. Ubaldo Jimenez is a guy who averages four walks per 9 innings for his career. His lowest single-season WHIP is a 1.15, which appears to be an outlier given his career WHIP of 1.34. There is really no evidence to indicate that Ubaldo Jimenez should be given a four year contract where he is paid $13 million per season. But this is the reality of baseball free agency in 2014.


5. Boston Red Sox
Last Season: They won the World Series.


The Offseason: They lost their leadoff hitter to their biggest rival and their starting catcher to the Marlins. They replaced them with Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski. Oh, and they added Edward Mujica to their bullpen.


Potential Breakout Player: There’s a sarcastic jerk in me (who’d have guessed?) that wants to pick the team of doctors who will keep Grady Sizemore in one piece (named this morning as the Sox’ Opening Day starter in centerfield). Instead I’ll go with Allen Webster, who came over from the Dodgers in the Great Salary Dump of 2012 and was an abject disaster in limited Major League work last season. He continued to be an abject disaster in Spring Training, but my options for a breakout player with this team are fairly limited to him and Jackie Bradley Jr. who just lost a competition to be the team’s starting centerfielder to a 31 year old who hasn’t played 100 games in a season since 2009 and hasn’t played at all since 2011. So there’s that. (Xander Bogaerts doesn’t count as he’s already broken out in my book.)


Additional Comment: To look at the 2014 Boston Red Sox and think, “That’s a team that could repeat as champions” you either have to be 1.) Drunk or 2.) A Bostonian (and no, I’m not taking the easy joke bait that I just dropped into the blog pond). Really, there’s nothing about this team that says, “champion” or “playoff contender” or “good.” The middle of the lineup, with Pedroia, Ortiz, and Napoli is really only as good as the table-setter(s). That’s generally the case for any 2-3-4 hitter. Who is that table-setter here? Sizemore? Shane Victorino? Maybe it’s Will Middlebrooks and his career .294 on-base percentage? I don’t think there’s nearly enough balance in this lineup to make up for what is a really shaky rotation. Clay Buchholz doesn’t appear able to pitch more than 5 innings at a time. Felix Doubront is a “written in ink” starter despite being, well, Felix Doubront. Jake Peavy didn’t get younger this offseason. Jon Lester is like Ubaldo Jimenez from the left-side (no, really, take a look at his numbers). And if you’re going to look at John Lackey’s 2013 and think that’s what you’re going to get from him, take a look at those career numbers and tell me he’s not due for a precipitous fall back to Yawkey Way.


At Seasons End…: The city and fanbase that loves narratives more than anyone else won’t really have one. They’ll have a sub-.500 baseball team, they’ll want John Farrell fired and replaced by Bobby Valentine (okay, maybe not Bobby Valentine), their aging roster will be a year older, and all of the goodwill and duck boats and silly Jonny Gomes antics will be gone. I’m not saying they’ll be closer to the 2012 Red Sox. This is still a 76-win team in a really tough division, but they’ll be a far cry from last year’s narrative-driven run to the World Series of Narratives.



AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit Tigers
Last Season: By the hair of their chins, the Tigers won the AL Central, allowing them to avoid playing in the MLB Pay Attention To Us Play-In Game. They won their Wild Card series over Oakland, before ultimately succumbing to the Red Sox in the ALCS.


The Offseason: The Tigers had a rather interesting offseason. First, they traded Prince Fielder and his enormous contract to the Texas Rangers for their malcontent, whiny, overpaid second baseman Ian Kinsler. Then, a few weeks later, they traded their number 3 starter, Doug Fister, for a utility infielder (Steve Lombardozzi), lefty reliever Ian Krol, and middle-of-the-road prospect Robbie Ray. Then, earlier this week, they traded Lombardozzi for the aged Alex Gonzalez, who they intend to play at shortstop even though he played first base last year for the Milwaukee Brewers. Oh, and I almost forgot they signed Joe Nathan to close out games. It was a busy offseason in Detroit, unlike elsewhere in the AL Central.


Potential Breakout Player: Nick Castellanos finally gets the opportunity to play full-time in the Majors, now that Miguel Cabrera has moved across the diamond. Castellanos has long been the Tigers prized prospect, one they prized so much they attempted to move him to a corner outfield spot just to get him some playing time. Lost in the Fielder trade and the money saved was the benefit of giving a player of Castellanos’ skill and potential his shot.


Additional Comment: The Tigers are far from a perfect team. There are question marks in left field and shortstop, certainly. And we can all sit around and wait for Rick Porcello to develop into the stud pitcher we expected, or we could go out and get some delicious burgers. Verlander, Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez are a lethal 1-2-3, especially considering the other 4 rotations in this division, all of whom would take any of those three and instantly make them their ace. But Detroit is not a perfect team. That said, this division, much like the NL Central and NL West and NL East should be a runaway. The gap between the Tigers and the Royals is large, at least in terms of elite talent.


At Seasons End…: The Tigers will have coasted into the playoffs, again. And if there’s a fourth starter they can rely on (Porcello or Drew Smyly) they might get back to the World Series. Without that though, I think they come up just short.


2. Kansas City Royals
Last Season: 2013 had to be a joy for Royals fans. The team didn’t make the playoffs but they finished with a better record than the New York Yankees. That had to be incredibly satisfying.


The Offseason: Omar Infante and Jason Vargas. That’s the list and that’s as much time as we’re going to spend on that.


Potential Breakout Player: There probably aren’t enough words to describe how excited I am to watch Yordano Ventura pitch. Ventura’s spring, against very good talent, was absurdly good (1.77 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, 0 HR allowed (in the Cactus League!). I could go on, but I’m focusing too much on Spring Training. Ventura possesses the sort of fastball that makes Joel Zumaya blush. Ventura also possesses a potentially solid curveball and a changeup. He won a rotation spot fairly early on and for obvious reason. He’s not a conventional starting pitcher by any stretch (he’s under 6’0”). That said, he’s my pick for American League Rookie of the Year.


Additional Comment: I remain very high on the Royals. The minor league system is brimming with talent, starting with 18 year old shortstop Raul Mondesi Jr. and running through a list that includes pitcher Kyle Zimmer, shortstop Christian Colon, and centerfielder Bubba Starling (who I’m not going to give up on). And the Major League team is very good offensively. Alex Gordon is everything I want in a baseball player. Eric Hosmer is coming off a season that saw him start to realize his great potential. Billy Butler is just a consistent hitter (in the nicest way possible). Mike Moustakas struggled last season, but still adds a great deal of pop, and when healthy, Salvador Perez is one of the best hidden secrets in baseball behind the plate. What keeps the Royals at a distance from the Tigers is rotational depth. Put it this way, as excited as I am for Yordano Ventura, he’s a risky gamble to be your number two option.


At Seasons End…: The Royals will more-or-less be in the same place as they were last year at season’s end. But the barometer is pointing straight up for this team. The addition of Kyle Zimmer and a quality free agent starter might have this team in the hunt for a pennant in 2014.


3. Cleveland Indians
Last Season: Terry Francona did as Terry Francona does; he took over a struggling team and got them to the play(in game)offs. And not even a good team.


The Offseason: The only thing of real interest is that the Indians decided, in order to give Yan Gomes more playing time, to move Carlos Santana from behind the plate to third base, which is a transition that always works well whenever any team tries it (which is never).


Potential Breakout Player: Danny Salazar performed well in limited time last season, keeping his ERA below 3.20, and producing a quality K/BB ratio for a 23 year old. He was so good, the Indians started him in their play-in game.


Additional Comment: I don’t have much to add really. I think the Indians are a subpar baseball team that overperformed last season. An injury (who’dda guessed?) to Michael Bourn won’t help the team’s ability to produce runs. The lineup is okay. Jason Kipnis is a nice piece, if not an entirely inconsistent one and Carlos Santana is a very good hitter who will be badly miscast as a third baseman. The pitching isn’t great. Justin Masterson appears to have turned some corner and while he’s not a true staff ace, he’s a good pitcher. But outside of him and Salazar, this team lacks the depth to be a true contender. Even with Tito.


At Seasons End…: Indians fans will be that much closer to watching super-prospect Francisco Lindor play shortstop every single day. And that will be a joy. This season won’t be. I’d say they’ll be a few games under .500 but never really in any hunt.


4. Chicago White Sox
Last Season: As bad as the Cubs were, the White Sox were worse. And unlike the Cubs, they had one of the worst minor league systems in baseball.


The Offseason: They didn’t get any closer to winning in 2014, but they took a couple of nice strides towards improving their future, thanks to the generosity of Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers. The White Sox sent out closer Addison Reed and ended up with their future centerfielder in Adam Eaton and, at the very worst, a good stopgap solution at third base in Matt Davidson.


Potential Breakout Player: Like with a lot of what the Diamondbacks do, I didn’t understand trading Adam Eaton. He’s a really nice addition to a team that doesn’t seem terribly keen on guys who get on-base. Eaton does and plays a very good defensive centerfield. He’ll get hardly any notice on the South Side this year because the White Sox will be so bad, but he’s one for the future.
Additional Comment: Outside of Chris Sale, who is very good, even though his arm will one day snap into pieces, the White Sox rotation is an absolute mess and the bullpen isn’t really much better. Nor is their offense. Let’s save some time, shall we?


At Seasons End…: Let’s just say, it won’t be pretty in Chicago.


5. Minnesota Twins
Last Season: They won 66 games and that seemed like a pleasant surprise.


The Offseason: They brought in Ricky Nolasco to be their ace and Phil Hughes to be, um, something.


Potential Breakout Player: I don’t know that he’s going to get much time outside of September, but Byron Buxton is the next super-duper star of baseball. He’s a true five-tooler in the mold of Mike Trout and he’s waiting in the wings. The Twins system is fairly loaded (though an injury to second base prospect Miguel Sano will keep him out for the season) so it may just be a matter of time before they’re back contending, but even if they’re 26 games out when they call up Buxton, he should be a must-watch from the get-go.


Additional Comment: I continue to not understand the logic behind giving out long-term deals to middling pitchers. The Twins locked up Nolasco through 2018, because when there’s a pitcher with a career 94 ERA+ who has only pitched in the National League before, you just have to pay him $12 million annually. Likewise for Phil Hughes who is signed through 2016 and will earn $8 million per season. If someone in the Twins front office thinks that signing Nolasco and Hughes will fill the seats at Target Field and/or make the Twins a contender, I’ve got some beautiful oceanfront property in Serbia to sell them.


At Seasons End…: The Twins will challenge the Astros for the title of “Worst Team in the American League” and Ron Gardenhire will continue loving the Japanese women’s soccer team.



AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels
Last Season: The Angels expected the addition of Josh Hamilton would help guide them back to the playoffs and potentially to the World Series. Instead, the Angels secured themselves a mid-first round draft pick in 2014.


The Offseason: A few years ago, the Angels traded highly regarded prospect Tyler Skaggs and others for Dan Haren. This offseason, they got Skaggs back by trading a guy who couldn’t get on base at a better than 30% clip. Baseball! The Angels also acquired David Freese from the Cardinals in exchange for Peter Bourjos, allowing Mike Trout to play his natural position of centerfield, where he will win all of the Gold Gloves.


Potential Breakout Player: 25 year old rookie Kole Calhoun put together a really solid campaign in 50+ games last season, with an .808 OPS, a 128 OPS+, and absolutely no glove-work. Most people didn’t notice this, myself included, because the Angels were, outside of Trout, unwatchable. This year, people will notice.


Additional Comment: This team is a lot more than just Mike Trout, I guess, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t celebrate Trout at every possible opportunity. Trout is 22 years old and at this point in his career, his name belongs with players like Mantle and Griffey Jr. There’s no argument. We all get nostalgic for the past. It’s the Saturday Night Live way of thinking. Every previous iteration was better than the one we have now. It’s considered sacrilege to compare any player today to any great of the past. That’s all nonsense to me. The SNL part. The baseball part. All of it. Whether you’re an Angels fan, Dodgers fan, Nationals fan, Red Sox fan, Yankees fan, or Tigers fan, you should cherish how lucky you are to watch a player like Trout, as a baseball fan. He doesn’t need to be the posterboy for the Sabermetric movement. He doesn’t need to be the posterboy for any movement. He’s a once-in-a-generation player. Blink and you’ll miss him.


Additional Comment 2: This additional comment won’t include Mike Trout. The Angels find themselves here because they are the most balanced team in this division. Texas has an incredible offense. Oakland has a good starting rotation and very good bullpen. LA’s lineup isn’t as good as Texas’ and their pitching isn’t as good as Oakland’s. But if Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols are healthy this team will certainly compete for a division title.


At Seasons End…: LA will just barely hold off the Rangers in the race to avoid the play-in game.


2. Texas Rangers
Last Season: The Rangers pulled off the very difficult task of winning 91 games while still missing the playoffs after a late season collapse that saw them go 5-14 over a 19 game span in September.


The Offseason: It was eventful to say the least. The Rangers added, in my opinion, the prized offensive free agent in Shin-Soo Choo, while also trading malcontent Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder, thus freeing up a spot in their lineup for super-prospect Jurickson Profar.


Potential Breakout Player: It was Profar until a torn shoulder muscle this spring put him on the shelf until late June. Let’s pretend former relief pitcher Tanner Scheppers is going to be a really good starting pitcher and go with him then.


Additional Comment: An injury to Yu Darvish leaves the Rangers with few options in the starting pitching category, hence Scheppers’ opportunity. I generally like my teams built on balance, but the 2014 Texas Rangers are an exception to that rule. I think they’ll be slow out of the gate, certainly. But getting Profar back in late June, a healthy Darvish much sooner, and then any sort of contributions from Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis could be a real boon to the Rangers. This prediction might look really silly in mid-May, but I think the Rangers will pull things together and get guys healthy at the right time.


At Seasons End…: Texas will be in the World Series and we’ll forget that Tanner Scheppers started on Opening Day.


3. Oakland Athletics
Last Season: Oakland defied skeptics and won the AL West before succumbing to the Detroit Tigers in the playoffs again.


The Offseason: The Oakland offseason recap should start at the end, as they lost Jarrod Parker for the season to Tommy John surgery and AJ Griffin to a muscle strain that will leave him out for at least a month of the season. As for additions, the A’s added Scott Kazmir to the rotation, Sam Fuld to the bench, and Luke Gregerson and Jim Johnson to what was already a very good bullpen.


Potential Breakout Player: You could argue that he broke out last year, but I’m going with Opening Day starter Sonny Gray. The diminutive righty was truly excellent in his first go-round of the Majors and I don’t expect that to change this year. Gray could be a dark horse Cy Young candidate. And if you were going to give me 40:1 odds on him, I might consider making a $10 bet.


Additional Comment: Oakland is in a tough spot. Losing Jarrod Parker hurts because he’s replaced by 30 year old journeyman Jesse Chavez and/or failed Colorado Rockies prospect Drew Pomeranz. Losing Griffin for a month hurts for the same reason. The A’s need their pitchers to be healthy to contend because their offense just simply isn’t good enough to win them games. People expecting Josh Reddick’s 2013 to be like his 2012 were slapped rudely across the face when they saw what most of the rest of us expected come to fruition. Meanwhile, Yoenis Cespedes had a difficult time staying healthy/drawing a walk/not striking out. Without those two performing, a lot falls on the shoulders of guys like Josh Donaldson, who may have been a revelation last year or may have been the 2013 version of 2012 Josh Reddick. I lean more towards the latter. That’s why they’re here. Sorry, @wipps.


At Seasons End…: Oakland will miss the play-in game by the slimmest of margins and Billy Beane will retreat to his beautiful penthouse condominium (I’m just guessing) and come up with a plan that will somehow, against the odds and logic, keep this team in contention in 2015.


4. Seattle Mariners
Last Season: They finished 20 games ahead of the last place team in their division.


The Offseason: The Mariners made a few fringe, but high-upside moves, in adding Corey Hart and Logan Morrison. They also signed Fernando Rodney to be their closer. Other than that, not much.


Potential Breakout Player: The Mariners will call on a young, homegrown second baseman named Robinson Cano to carry the load offensively for them. I’ve had a difficult time looking up his numbers last season in AAA Tacoma, but it’s the PCL, so you have to assume they were very good. Cano should be a top of the order table-setter for the bevy of great power hitters on the roster such as…..and also….


Additional Comment: You could, maybe, get me to buy the argument that the Cano signing was a smart one for the Mariners. It would take a lot of double IPAs, but you could maybe do it. But if I’m not under the influence of alcohol, I think it’s an absurd contract for a team without an identity. No team in baseball has to travel as much every season as Seattle. Their closest division opponent is 800 miles away. Take a look at this infograph about baseball travel, if you’d like. Seattle is not a desirable place for free agent baseball players. It’s a desirable place for late-20’s hipster doofuses like myself who enjoy wearing flannel shirts, eating locally-sourced food, and drinking really bitter beers. The travel schedule, combined with the fact that no one east of Carson City (besides me and other Vin Scully aficionados) watches regular season west coast games, means that you play in a sort of black hole. Robinson Cano is now part of that black hole. The Mariners have two good young pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker (who will unfortunately start the season on the DL) and James Paxton. Other than that, their system is weak. Mike Zunino and Brad Miller are everyday players now, but neither has the sort of ceiling that you can pair with Cano to build something. Robinson Cano is a very good baseball player. But of all the ridiculous 8-10 year contracts handed out since the dawn of the age of TV money (and that includes Miguel Cabrera’s) Cano’s might be the most illogical. With the Angels, you could see that they were trying to get to the World Series with Pujols and overpaid to try to get a few of his peak years. The Tigers don’t want to lose the face of their franchise. The Tigers thought Prince Fielder and Cabrera would each club 50 homers and be best friends and win a World Series. With those teams, there was something sensible about their deals. With Cano, it’s just another example of how some teams really don’t have a plan for the present, never mind the future.


At Seasons End…: More of the same.


5. Houston Astros
Last Season: The Astros weren’t quite the worst team in the history of baseball, but they weren’t terribly far off either.


The Offseason: They signed Scott Feldman to a laughable contract (3 years/$30 million) that can only be a result of some mandate from the Major League offices to spend money. They also made a really smart trade to add Dexter Fowler.


Potential Breakout Player: On a (projected) 58 win team, there are no breakout players.


Additional Comment: I love what the Astros are doing. To me, in baseball you have two goals: contend for a World Series or build to do that in the future. Tampa Bay did that in the mid-2000s and it’s paid dividends. Milwaukee did that for a while before they lost Prince Fielder and gave up hope. The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins are doing it now. To be a team like the current Milwaukee Brewers or the Philadelphia Phillies playing for absolutely nothing makes no sense at all to me. No one in baseball is rebuilding like the Astros. To the most casual of baseball fans (those who just look at the box scores and the standings), the Astros are a laughing-stock. But to anyone in the know, who follows this stuff more closely, the Astros are a model. They’re the Kate Upton of baseball models. Years of failure have paid off in the minor league system. No one comes close to Houston in terms of depth and upper echelon talent. From Carlos Correa, who will be a star shortstop soon, to Mark Appel and George Springer who will make their debuts this season, to pitchers Lance McCullers Jr. and Mike Foltynewicz, the Astros have talent galore and will again have the top pick in this June’s draft (expected to be North Carolina State southpaw Carlos Rodon). You might not want to watch them now, but the building blocks are in place in southeastern Texas and the Astros will soon be a force to be reckoned with. Just after they lose 100 games again.


At Seasons End…:  See above.



AL Playoffs
Play-In Game: Texas over Tampa Bay


Wild Card Round: Texas over Detroit, New York over Los Angeles


ALCS: Texas over New York


AL Awards
MVP: Mike Trout (finally)
Cy Young: Justin Verlander
Rookie of the Year: Yordano Ventura


World Series

St. Louis over Texas (4-3)

2014 National League Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment
Last season, I did something very different with my MLB preview. In years past, I had just written one post for the season with predictions and some pithy comments.


Last year, I decided to write a team preview for all 30 clubs. This amounted to 30 posts in 30 days and about 17,000 words of thought, snark, and player names which still contribute to the total word count thankfully. It wasn’t the fun exercise I expected it to be. Especially not when I got to teams like the Brewers. Sorry, Brewers fan.


In 2014, given the amount of free time you’d perceive me to have, you would think that I’d be undertaking that same exercise. Instead, I decided to bury it. There’s a certain overzealousness that comes with thinking that anyone would want to read a Chicago Cubs preview written by some guy who doesn’t actually work as a sports journalist. And the pageviews indicated as much last year. Except for the Cardinals post which was four times more popular than any other post, probably because TBFIB.  


So, in an effort to save your time, I present to you my NL Preview. Expect the AL preview some time on Friday. I would love feedback, disagreements, thoughts, corrections, and insults. So direct them my way on the social media (@midatlanticbias) or in the comments section.


(teams listed in predicted order of finish)


NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
Last Year: Remember last season when I boldly went where every sportswriter was going and predicted that the Nats would run away with the World Series? That they’d cancel the season around mid-August because it just wasn’t close enough to finish it? That everyone would stay healthy and a big parade would be held down South Capitol Street?


Yeah, that didn’t happen. The Nats won 86 games, but finished four games out of the second play-in game spot. They were hampered by injuries and bullpen regression and poor management and a host of other problems. That said, they won 86 games.


The Offseason: The Nationals offseason was highlighted by one of the most inexplicable trades in recent memory, where the Detroit Tigers traded starting pitcher Doug Fister (30 years old, cheap, career ERA+ of 116) for a left handed relief pitcher, a utility infielder, and a fringy pitching prospect.


Elsewhere, the Nats added Nate McLouth (expensively) as a fourth outfielder and Jose Lobaton to be their backup catcher. None of those moves were particularly splashy, but if Wilson Ramos continues to be incapable of staying healthy, and Bryce Harper’s body continues to act like that of a 47 year old, Mike Rizzo might reclaim his “genius” sticker.


Potential Breakout Player: I’ll do one of these for each team. Consider it a player that most baseball fans don’t know about. If you’re a religious fan like me, you’ve heard of most of these people. As Conor Oberst once said, “I’m not singing for you.” For the Nats, I think it’s Tanner Roark. Roark is currently in a battle with Taylor Jordan for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. The loser likely ends up in Syracuse. Both are quality young arms, but I like Roark more, at least for this season, because of his ability to keep guys off base. Jordan gives up a lot of hits. Roark does not. Neither are dominant strikeout pitchers, but Roark has shown the most consistent ability to miss bats. Either is a better option than any number of teams have in their 3 spot.


Additional Comment: I’m glad to see Danny Espinosa back in the Majors. I was as frustrated as anyone with him last year and was happy to see him demoted, but this team needs his glove-work. He’s a plus-defender up the middle at either position and in the event of an infield injury (anywhere really, as Ryan Zimmerman is likely to see time at first base, which would move Anthony Rendon to third, etc.) will be a nice addition because of what he gives defensively. Any added pop (and Danny has that) offensively should be considered a plus at this point.


At Seasons End…: The Nats will have won the NL East with 93 wins, but will fail to get to the World Series, due in large part to the talent pools elsewhere in this league.


2. Miami Marlins
Last Year: Was an abject disaster. They lost 100 games and were the worst road team in baseball. Though they did feature the NL Rookie of the Year in Jose Fernandez and gave some much needed Major League development time to future start Christian Yelich.


The Offseason: Well, they’re the Marlins, so they didn’t go out and make any huge free agent splashes. They did add Jarrod Saltalamacchia (no, I didn’t have to look up the spelling of his last name) and Rafael Furcal, two veterans who, if healthy, are big upgrades at their position over last year’s starters, Jeff “I Still Love You Mike Scioscia” Mathis and Donovan Solano.


Potential Breakout Player: Henderson Alvarez ended last season by throwing a no-hitter that nobody noticed, because it was on the last day of the Major League season. His Spring (and I put very little stock into that for what it’s worth) was productive and he stayed healthy, something the 23 year old has had difficulty doing thus far in his early career. I like Alvarez because, like with Tanner Roark, he is showing an ability to miss bats. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, per se, but his K totals looked nicer this spring against a high level of talent (Baseball-Reference has a wonderful tool that grades the level of hitter a pitcher has faced during Spring Training).


Additional Comment: I am in no way saying that the 2014 Marlins are going to be like the 2003 Marlins. I don’t think they’re a playoff team. They’re a team playing in a fairly terrible division. But their rotation is very young and has a world of potential to be very, very good, led by Jose Fernandez, who I expect to compete with Clayton Kershaw and Jordan Zimmermann for the NL Cy Young. He’s backed up by Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob Turner, none of whom are older than 24 and all of whom have had some modicum of success in the Majors already. Add to that youth of the outfield (Yelcih, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jake Marisnick) and you’ve got the start of something very good in Miami.


At Seasons End….: They’ll be a mile behind the Nationals and much closer to the Braves, but they’ll be on the right path, assuming their owner doesn’t trade Stanton and Fernandez to the Yankees for Cash Considerations and a corned beef sandwich.


3. Atlanta Braves
Last Year: They were very good. They won 96 games, dominated at home in front of their 15,000 fans/night, and saw Freddie Freeman develop into one of the best first basemen in baseball.


The Offseason: They signed every young player they have to a long-term extension and then all of their pitchers died.


Potential Breakout Player: There’s really no player in the system or with the club now that isn’t a relative household name now. But I’d like to focus briefly on Andrelton Simmons. Simmons’ 2013 was arguably one of the greatest defensive seasons ever for any player. Simmons saved roughly 40 runs defensively. At the plate, he’s not vintage Alex Rodriguez. But he hit 17 home runs. If you’re going to get on-base 30% of the time, hit 17 home runs, and play historically great defense, you deserve a lot of attention. Here’s a 25 minute long video of his defensive highlights from last season. Enjoy.


Additional Comment: Their Opening Day rotation, right now, includes Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Alex Wood, and David Hale. That’s four people. The Braves expect Mike Minor back by April’s end, after losing Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen in Spring Training. The Braves sitting below the Marlins is a direct result of that. And if you want to argue that Atlanta’s lineup is good enough to outweigh the rotational shortcomings, tell me exactly what Justin Upton, BJ Upton, and Jason Heyward did last season that leaves you confident that they can carry a team with a bottom 10 rotation. I’ll be here all day.


At Seasons End….: Fredi Gonzalez will be out (especially if rumors of BJ Upton batting second and Chris Johnson batting fourth are true), the Braves will be a sub-.500 team, and they’ll be shopping Justin Upton looking to bolster a less than stellar minor league system.


4. New York Mets
Last Year: Wasn’t very good, though the Mets may have surprised some people with 74 wins. Matt Harvey was a revelation and glimpses of the future had to brighten the hopes of Mets fans everywhere.


The Offseason: Matt Harvey had Tommy John surgery and was replaced in the 2014 rotation by Bartolo Colon. Meanwhile, Daisuke Matsuzaka may have won a rotational spot over a very good prospect in Jenrry Mejia and they gave a lot of money to Curtis Granderson. In other words, LOLMets.


Potential Breakout Player: I think it’s Mejia, who showed glimpses of a great future in a brief stint last year. Look, I’m familiar with the work of Daisuke Matsuzaka. New Yorkers are familiar with it too. They’re not going to be patient. Mejia is part of the future core of this rotation (with Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, and Noah Syndergaard) and is due for his opportunity.


Additional Comment: While I admire the idea of having lots of money to spend, I do not understand the signing of Curtis Granderson. Teams like the Mets who have a number of very good, club-controlled prospects (the pitchers above as well as Travis d’Arnaud and Dominic Smith) spending long-term dollars on past-their-prime players, when they have no hope of contending for a World Series, makes zero financial sense. In three years, when the Mets are going to be paying Granderson $16 million, they’ll also need to start thinking about locking up their, at that point (hopefully), developed prospects. You don’t give up on the present, but you don’t throw large free agent deals at players who aren’t going to push you over the hump.


At Seasons End…: The Mets will be about four losses worse than last season, but no worse long-term than they are today. Which is all you can ask for if you’re a Mets fan at this point.


5. Philadelphia Phillies
Last Year: The Phillies finished below the Mets, despite having a payroll of roughly $190 million. That’s not a misprint. Ruben Amaro Jr, their GM, still has a job.


The Offseason: Roy Halladay retired, they threw some money at AJ Burnett for some reason, and Jimmy Rollins fought with new manager Ryne Sandberg.


Potential Breakout Player: Maybe Jesse Biddle gets a cup of coffee and fills in nicely to a spot in the rotation. That’s the best case scenario.


Additional Comment: This is probably the most embarrassing team in baseball. Laugh all you want at the Astros, Cubs, and Marlins, but they didn’t pay a lot of money to be terrible last year. The Phillies paid nearly $200 million. They enter 2014 with the third highest payroll in baseball and no immediate help in a system missing immediate, high-impact prospects. The lineup you see today is the best lineup they’ve got. And it’s an awful, aging lineup, managed by a former player who is already fighting with the team’s presumed clubhouse leader, Jimmy Rollins. Enjoy the show in South Philly.


At Seasons End….: Phillies fans will rejoice because the season will be over and the Eagles will be playing football again.




NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
Last Year: They did what they always do: received contributions from young pitchers, hit the ball, and got to the World Series, where they were “outclassed” by the Boston Red Sox.


The Offseason: Two moves that went mostly under the radar, but could pay big dividends: replacing Jon Jay’s terrible defense in center with Peter Bourjos and replacing Pete Kozma’s terrible everything at shortstop with Jhonny Peralta. And all they lost was David Freese.


Potential Breakout Player: Peter Bourjos. His glove should win him one of those fancy awards at the end of the season and I think his bat will give the Cardinals enough to make him a 3.5+ WAR player. He’ll steal bases and score a lot of runs for a guy batting down in a team’s order. And again, to get him, all they had to do was trade a guy who was blocking one of the organization’s upper echelon prospects.


Additional Comment: Moving Allen Craig to the outfield full time, to make space for Matt Adams at first might prove to be a drain on Bourjos’ endurance, as he’ll be covering both flanks (with Matt Holliday in left field and Craig in right). But those defensive concerns aren’t enough for me. The one area of mild concern is their rotation. Last fall, when the world was anointing Michael Wacha the best young pitcher in baseball (no, seriously, Curt Schilling said that: “ His mix and makeup are as good as any young pitcher I’ve seen in the game.”) I was perplexed. First, Clayton Kershaw is only 3 ½ years older than Wacha and more importantly, Wacha is a two-pitch pitcher. Over the course of a full season, that’s going to come back to haunt him. I still feel that way. That said, even if Wacha struggles, I don’t see a single challenger in this division. The Cardinals are the runaway NL Central favorite.


At Seasons End…The St. Louis Cardinals will find themselves back in the World Series.


2. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Season: Magic! The Pirates finally made the playoffs and even though they were eliminated by St. Louis, ended the season poised to be a playoff contender for years to come, which is a weird sentence to write.


The Offseason: Well, they’re the Pirates, so they didn’t sign Jacoby Ellsbury or Masahiro Tanaka. But they did add Edinson Volquez. So…


Potential Breakout Player: Gregory Polanco won’t start the year in Pittsburgh, but he’ll likely finish it there and could be a key to any success Pittsburgh has in 2014. Polanco is a do-everything, top-tier prospect with an advanced approach at the age of 22. He’s probably ready for the Majors now, but Pittsburgh won’t rush him unless Jose Tabata is a total disaster. So expect to see Polanco by Memorial Day.


Additional Comment: This is a team that would have benefited greatly from knowing that someone like Doug Fister was available because Pittsburgh has the assets to have outbid the Nationals and could really use a groundball guy like Fister. The rotation is thin, being filled out at the back with Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Edinson Volquez. Jameson Taillon is waiting for his call-up, but Taillon doesn’t look to be the elite pitching prospect he was when the Pirates drafted him right after Bryce Harper and right before Manny Machado in the 2010 draft.


At Seasons End: They’ll get to play in the Major League Baseball Tries To Siphon Off Just One Extra Day of Coverage One-Game Playoff game again, but I don’t expect this team to make a real run at the World Series until a solid starter or two is brought in to accompany Gerrit Cole.


3. Milwaukee Brewers
Last Season: The Brewers’ best player, Ryan Braun, took a suspension plea deal for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal and the Brewers offense took a hit in his absence. They won just 74 games.


The Offseason: With a gaping hole in their rotation, the Brewers did what so few teams seem capable of doing: they added a good free agent starting pitcher. Matt Garza didn’t necessarily come cheap, but he’ll bolster a rotation with some upside to it. The Brewers also added Mark Reynolds. I just wrote that to make this section look bigger.


Potential Breakout Player: No team in baseball has a worse system than the Brewers. There is truly no “unknown” talent anywhere near their Major League club. The Brewers didn’t land a single prospect on Keith Law’s Top 100 prospects list and he wrote “no one was close.” He’s not lying.


Additional Comment: Look for the Brewers to trade former No. 2 overall draft pick Rickie Weeks at some point to a team in need of second base help. Weeks is now below a guy named Scooter on the team’s depth chart and the Brewers would be clearly desperate to bring back anyone with any real upside, despite the fact that Weeks may have seen his best days pass him by already.


At Seasons End…: The Brewers will have won a few more games than they did last year, but unlike a team like the Marlins, they won’t be set up for near future success, unless they can convince a lot of young free agents to move to Milwaukee.


4. Cincinnati Reds
Last Season: The Reds made the MLBTTSOJOEDOC One-Game Playoff game, losing to the Pirates 1-0. Then they fired Dusty Baker and hired first-time manager Brian Price, their former pitching coach.


The Offseason: Convinced that they didn’t need to do everything possible to keep Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 OBP at the top of their lineup, the Reds sat on their hands for a while before giving Homer Bailey a deal that in the year 2019 will pay him $23 million. I cannot believe I just typed that sentence and you shouldn’t believe you just read it.


Potential Breakout Player: Billy Hamilton is either going to become a household name or he’s going to be playing in Louisville by June. I don’t see any other scenario. He’s the fastest player in baseball, but speed is only good if you get on base. He’s not a good hitter (think Dee Gordon) and seems to have lost the patient approach that got him on-base at the lower levels of the minor leagues where he stole approximately 674 million bases.


Additional Comment: I don’t want to belabor the point, but the Homer Bailey contract is a head-scratcher to me and as a Nats fan, cannot mean that Jordan Zimmermann is going to come cheap. Homer Bailey is a perfectly fine pitcher with a couple of no-hitters to his name, but that’s really what he is. He’s a guy that can go out and be dominant a few times a year, but is mostly just pretty good. He’s like the rich man’s Edwin Jackson.


At Seasons End…: The Reds will be happy that the Cubs play in the same division. The loss of Choo is huge for this team. Outside of Joey Votto, this is not a team that gets on-base consistently or even well. Everyone is going to regress because of Choo’s absence. Why the Reds didn’t overpay for him I will never understand.


5. Chicago Cubs
Last Season: was a tire fire.


The Offseason: They brought in Justin Ruggiano and Jose Veras.


Potential Breakout Player: Javier Baez. Assuming that Starlin Castro continues to be himself, the Cubs would be wise to put their prized prospect into the everyday lineup and see what happens. Baez has incredible bat speed and should hit right away.


Additional Comment: Theo Epstein has built a great system in a short amount of time. Chicago should be a good team in the next five years. I’d imagine there will be another two seasons similar to 2013 before that happens, which just means more chances to draft elite players. There’s a smart way to rebuild and there’s the way a lot of other teams do it. Chicago is doing it the smart way.


At Seasons End…: The Cubs will still have not won a World Series since 1908.




NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Season: was a tire fire until Yasiel Puig showed up and single-handedly made baseball exciting again. The Dodgers stumbled out of the gate like a Philadelphian at the annual Mummers parade. They struggled to be competitive in May. Then, on June 3, at 23-32, with Stephen Fife scheduled to take the mound against the Padres, the Dodgers called up The Wild Horse. They’d go on to win 92 games and take the Cardinals to 6 games in the NLCS.


The Offseason: They smartly extended the undisputed best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, through the end of time. They also signed Dan Haren and Paul Maholm. And Yasiel Puig drove his car too fast.


Potential Breakout Player: Not applicable, unless you want to count Matt Kemp.


Additional Comment: The Dodgers outfield is very crowded. Matt Kemp, at one point arguably the best player in baseball, hasn’t played this spring after foot surgery. He hasn’t been really healthy since his “should have been” MVP season in 2011. When he returns, which could be in mid-April, the Dodgers will have a choice between Kemp, Puig, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier. One of them is going to be benched. That means one of them is not going to be happy. And I get the sense that player is going to be Puig. Speeding at the rates that he was is obviously not something to joke about, but the media crucifiction of Puig is embarrassing and I think it’s permeated into the Dodgers locker room from what I read about Manager Don Mattingly. Puig is a talent that needs patience and I fear that his incredible 2013 will end up hurting him in the long run. I don’t even think it’s outside of the realm of possibilities that the Dodgers could try to move Puig if Kemp is healthy because he’s the most desirable asset on their roster (significantly cheaper than any of the other three outfielders who will all earn at least $15.5 million this season). You can’t have a player of Puig’s skill sitting on your bench and you can’t have a player earning $20 million sitting on your bench. So something is going to have to give in Elysian Park. It’s the most fascinating story of this season to me.


At Seasons End…: The Dodgers will be thankful that they play in a weak division (perhaps baseball’s weakest). I expect them to make the playoffs because there’s just too much talent for them not to. But even with all of that talent, the Cardinals are a more complete team and won’t have the droning sound of sportswriter columnists peppering the clubhouse with questions about who should be the odd man out in the outfield. That said, the Dodgers will be a must-watch every night. Especially when they’re at home with Vin Scully calling games. Because Vin Scully is a treasure that we should all celebrate at every opportunity.


2-5: Who Knows?
Last Season: As they tend to do, the teams in the NL West shuffled deck chairs, with the Diamondbacks finishing at .500, followed closely behind by the Padres, Giants, and Rockies.


The Offseason: The biggest acquisition of the offseason for the four teams was probably Colorado adding Brett Anderson or San Diego adding Josh Johnson, this is of course assuming that they’re both perfectly healthy, which they’ve literally never been. And so that means that Mark Trumbo and his sub-.300 OBP in Arizona or Tim Hudson and his being old take the trophy for “biggest offseason move” among the four also-rans.


Potential Breakout Player: This should be easier, given a pool of four teams to work with, but, well, it’s not. I’m going with the long-shot of Archie Bradley in Arizona. Bradley, the Diamondbacks top prospect, might not pitch in the rotation until an injury forces GM Kevin Towers’ hand, but Bradley is the real deal. And he’d benefit greatly from not having to pitch in pitcher-unfriendly Reno.


Additional Comment: The Dodgers used to be part of this deck chair routine before they became baseball’s biggest spenders. This routine is wearing paper thin, frankly. None of these teams ever seems to make the true, conscious effort to rebuild like the Cubs and Astros presently are. They add a piece here, trade a prospect there, and remain thoroughly mediocre throughout. Even the Giants, who have won two World Series trophies since 2010, can best be described as thoroughly mediocre. Each year they won the World Series, you’d be hard pressed to argue that they were the best team in baseball. In 2014, one of these teams is going to finish with 85 wins and secure a spot in the play-in game. The following year? They’ll probably finish in last place. Welcome to the NL West.


At Seasons End….: I like the Rockies to surprise and finish in second, followed by the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants. Offensively, if we assume a healthy Troy Tulowitzki (yes, I know what happens when you assume), the Rockies are unquestionably the best team of the four. The starting pitching goes about three guys deep, but really, the same can be said about the other teams involved too. Forgive me if I don’t sound too excited about 80% of the NL West.


NL Playoffs


Play-In Game: Pittsburgh over Colorado


Wild Card Round: St. Louis over Washington, Los Angeles over Pittsburgh


NLCS: St. Louis over Los Angeles


NL Awards


MVP: Yadier Molina
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (really going out on a limb there)

Rookie of the Year: Gregory Polanco

A Brief Ode to Wichita State

/ Jason / Leave a comment

The game of the year in college basketball, past or future, was played yesterday in the Gateway city (named that, I believe, because that’s where Gateway computers were manufactured). On Selection Sunday I was highly bothered by the draw undefeated Wichita State had received. It was almost as if the NCAA was trying to hurt a mid-major program for the benefit of its traditional blue-bloods. I know, really strange that the noble NCAA would do such a thing. While Virginia drew an average Memphis team from the American Conference, Florida drew the 5th best team in the ACC and Arizona drew Gonzaga, Wichita State was put into a position where their path to the Elite 8 was very likely to include Kentucky and the reigning champion Louisville Cardinals, themselves a victim of terrible under-seeding.

And so Wichita State, playing in a city 100 miles closer to Lexington, KY than southern Kansas, was forced to play “The Best Freshman Class In The History Of Basketball Ever.” The game was an instant classic. It was the kind of game that was better served for the Final Four or a National Championship game. Boxing metaphors are totally overdone. But this felt like a prizefight should feel. Each team took blows to the head and countered with body shots that left their opponent stunned. Cleanthony Early played the kind of game that should vault him into the discussion for the NBA lottery. He exhibited a great mid-range jump shot and deadly outside shooting. Meanwhile, super freshman Andrew Harrison had his best game of the season, sealing the game down the stretch at the free throw line, while Julius Randle did his best Zach Randolph impression.

The game was a gem. There were a handful of moments that left Jim Nantz and Greg Anthony, calling the game for CBS, with nothing to say but “OH!”

This is likely the end of the road, for now, for Wichita State. Early is a senior, as is Andrew Wiggins’ brother. Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, the Shockers great guard combo, are both sophomores, but without the athleticism of Early, this may not be a team that can be a national title contender, which they absolutely were this year. It’s just a shame that the NCAA didn’t want that to happen.