Last season, I did something very different with my MLB preview. In years past, I had just written one post for the season with predictions and some pithy comments.
Last year, I decided to write a team preview for all 30 clubs. This amounted to 30 posts in 30 days and about 17,000 words of thought, snark, and player names which still contribute to the total word count thankfully. It wasn’t the fun exercise I expected it to be. Especially not when I got to teams like the Brewers. Sorry, Brewers fan.
In 2014, given the amount of free time you’d perceive me to have, you would think that I’d be undertaking that same exercise. Instead, I decided to bury it. There’s a certain overzealousness that comes with thinking that anyone would want to read a Chicago Cubs preview written by some guy who doesn’t actually work as a sports journalist. And the pageviews indicated as much last year. Except for the Cardinals post which was four times more popular than any other post, probably because TBFIB.
So, in an effort to save your time, I present to you my NL Preview. Expect the AL preview some time on Friday. I would love feedback, disagreements, thoughts, corrections, and insults. So direct them my way on the social media (@midatlanticbias) or in the comments section.
(teams listed in predicted order of finish)
NL EAST
1. Washington Nationals
Last Year: Remember last season when I boldly went where every sportswriter was going and predicted that the Nats would run away with the World Series? That they’d cancel the season around mid-August because it just wasn’t close enough to finish it? That everyone would stay healthy and a big parade would be held down South Capitol Street?
Yeah, that didn’t happen. The Nats won 86 games, but finished four games out of the second play-in game spot. They were hampered by injuries and bullpen regression and poor management and a host of other problems. That said, they won 86 games.
The Offseason: The Nationals offseason was highlighted by one of the most inexplicable trades in recent memory, where the Detroit Tigers traded starting pitcher Doug Fister (30 years old, cheap, career ERA+ of 116) for a left handed relief pitcher, a utility infielder, and a fringy pitching prospect.
Elsewhere, the Nats added Nate McLouth (expensively) as a fourth outfielder and Jose Lobaton to be their backup catcher. None of those moves were particularly splashy, but if Wilson Ramos continues to be incapable of staying healthy, and Bryce Harper’s body continues to act like that of a 47 year old, Mike Rizzo might reclaim his “genius” sticker.
Potential Breakout Player: I’ll do one of these for each team. Consider it a player that most baseball fans don’t know about. If you’re a religious fan like me, you’ve heard of most of these people. As Conor Oberst once said, “I’m not singing for you.” For the Nats, I think it’s Tanner Roark. Roark is currently in a battle with Taylor Jordan for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. The loser likely ends up in Syracuse. Both are quality young arms, but I like Roark more, at least for this season, because of his ability to keep guys off base. Jordan gives up a lot of hits. Roark does not. Neither are dominant strikeout pitchers, but Roark has shown the most consistent ability to miss bats. Either is a better option than any number of teams have in their 3 spot.
Additional Comment: I’m glad to see Danny Espinosa back in the Majors. I was as frustrated as anyone with him last year and was happy to see him demoted, but this team needs his glove-work. He’s a plus-defender up the middle at either position and in the event of an infield injury (anywhere really, as Ryan Zimmerman is likely to see time at first base, which would move Anthony Rendon to third, etc.) will be a nice addition because of what he gives defensively. Any added pop (and Danny has that) offensively should be considered a plus at this point.
At Seasons End…: The Nats will have won the NL East with 93 wins, but will fail to get to the World Series, due in large part to the talent pools elsewhere in this league.
2. Miami Marlins
Last Year: Was an abject disaster. They lost 100 games and were the worst road team in baseball. Though they did feature the NL Rookie of the Year in Jose Fernandez and gave some much needed Major League development time to future start Christian Yelich.
The Offseason: Well, they’re the Marlins, so they didn’t go out and make any huge free agent splashes. They did add Jarrod Saltalamacchia (no, I didn’t have to look up the spelling of his last name) and Rafael Furcal, two veterans who, if healthy, are big upgrades at their position over last year’s starters, Jeff “I Still Love You Mike Scioscia” Mathis and Donovan Solano.
Potential Breakout Player: Henderson Alvarez ended last season by throwing a no-hitter that nobody noticed, because it was on the last day of the Major League season. His Spring (and I put very little stock into that for what it’s worth) was productive and he stayed healthy, something the 23 year old has had difficulty doing thus far in his early career. I like Alvarez because, like with Tanner Roark, he is showing an ability to miss bats. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, per se, but his K totals looked nicer this spring against a high level of talent (Baseball-Reference has a wonderful tool that grades the level of hitter a pitcher has faced during Spring Training).
Additional Comment: I am in no way saying that the 2014 Marlins are going to be like the 2003 Marlins. I don’t think they’re a playoff team. They’re a team playing in a fairly terrible division. But their rotation is very young and has a world of potential to be very, very good, led by Jose Fernandez, who I expect to compete with Clayton Kershaw and Jordan Zimmermann for the NL Cy Young. He’s backed up by Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob Turner, none of whom are older than 24 and all of whom have had some modicum of success in the Majors already. Add to that youth of the outfield (Yelcih, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jake Marisnick) and you’ve got the start of something very good in Miami.
At Seasons End….: They’ll be a mile behind the Nationals and much closer to the Braves, but they’ll be on the right path, assuming their owner doesn’t trade Stanton and Fernandez to the Yankees for Cash Considerations and a corned beef sandwich.
3. Atlanta Braves
Last Year: They were very good. They won 96 games, dominated at home in front of their 15,000 fans/night, and saw Freddie Freeman develop into one of the best first basemen in baseball.
The Offseason: They signed every young player they have to a long-term extension and then all of their pitchers died.
Potential Breakout Player: There’s really no player in the system or with the club now that isn’t a relative household name now. But I’d like to focus briefly on Andrelton Simmons. Simmons’ 2013 was arguably one of the greatest defensive seasons ever for any player. Simmons saved roughly 40 runs defensively. At the plate, he’s not vintage Alex Rodriguez. But he hit 17 home runs. If you’re going to get on-base 30% of the time, hit 17 home runs, and play historically great defense, you deserve a lot of attention. Here’s a 25 minute long video of his defensive highlights from last season. Enjoy.
Additional Comment: Their Opening Day rotation, right now, includes Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Alex Wood, and David Hale. That’s four people. The Braves expect Mike Minor back by April’s end, after losing Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen in Spring Training. The Braves sitting below the Marlins is a direct result of that. And if you want to argue that Atlanta’s lineup is good enough to outweigh the rotational shortcomings, tell me exactly what Justin Upton, BJ Upton, and Jason Heyward did last season that leaves you confident that they can carry a team with a bottom 10 rotation. I’ll be here all day.
At Seasons End….: Fredi Gonzalez will be out (especially if rumors of BJ Upton batting second and Chris Johnson batting fourth are true), the Braves will be a sub-.500 team, and they’ll be shopping Justin Upton looking to bolster a less than stellar minor league system.
4. New York Mets
Last Year: Wasn’t very good, though the Mets may have surprised some people with 74 wins. Matt Harvey was a revelation and glimpses of the future had to brighten the hopes of Mets fans everywhere.
The Offseason: Matt Harvey had Tommy John surgery and was replaced in the 2014 rotation by Bartolo Colon. Meanwhile, Daisuke Matsuzaka may have won a rotational spot over a very good prospect in Jenrry Mejia and they gave a lot of money to Curtis Granderson. In other words, LOLMets.
Potential Breakout Player: I think it’s Mejia, who showed glimpses of a great future in a brief stint last year. Look, I’m familiar with the work of Daisuke Matsuzaka. New Yorkers are familiar with it too. They’re not going to be patient. Mejia is part of the future core of this rotation (with Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, and Noah Syndergaard) and is due for his opportunity.
Additional Comment: While I admire the idea of having lots of money to spend, I do not understand the signing of Curtis Granderson. Teams like the Mets who have a number of very good, club-controlled prospects (the pitchers above as well as Travis d’Arnaud and Dominic Smith) spending long-term dollars on past-their-prime players, when they have no hope of contending for a World Series, makes zero financial sense. In three years, when the Mets are going to be paying Granderson $16 million, they’ll also need to start thinking about locking up their, at that point (hopefully), developed prospects. You don’t give up on the present, but you don’t throw large free agent deals at players who aren’t going to push you over the hump.
At Seasons End…: The Mets will be about four losses worse than last season, but no worse long-term than they are today. Which is all you can ask for if you’re a Mets fan at this point.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
Last Year: The Phillies finished below the Mets, despite having a payroll of roughly $190 million. That’s not a misprint. Ruben Amaro Jr, their GM, still has a job.
The Offseason: Roy Halladay retired, they threw some money at AJ Burnett for some reason, and Jimmy Rollins fought with new manager Ryne Sandberg.
Potential Breakout Player: Maybe Jesse Biddle gets a cup of coffee and fills in nicely to a spot in the rotation. That’s the best case scenario.
Additional Comment: This is probably the most embarrassing team in baseball. Laugh all you want at the Astros, Cubs, and Marlins, but they didn’t pay a lot of money to be terrible last year. The Phillies paid nearly $200 million. They enter 2014 with the third highest payroll in baseball and no immediate help in a system missing immediate, high-impact prospects. The lineup you see today is the best lineup they’ve got. And it’s an awful, aging lineup, managed by a former player who is already fighting with the team’s presumed clubhouse leader, Jimmy Rollins. Enjoy the show in South Philly.
At Seasons End….: Phillies fans will rejoice because the season will be over and the Eagles will be playing football again.
NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
Last Year: They did what they always do: received contributions from young pitchers, hit the ball, and got to the World Series, where they were “outclassed” by the Boston Red Sox.
The Offseason: Two moves that went mostly under the radar, but could pay big dividends: replacing Jon Jay’s terrible defense in center with Peter Bourjos and replacing Pete Kozma’s terrible everything at shortstop with Jhonny Peralta. And all they lost was David Freese.
Potential Breakout Player: Peter Bourjos. His glove should win him one of those fancy awards at the end of the season and I think his bat will give the Cardinals enough to make him a 3.5+ WAR player. He’ll steal bases and score a lot of runs for a guy batting down in a team’s order. And again, to get him, all they had to do was trade a guy who was blocking one of the organization’s upper echelon prospects.
Additional Comment: Moving Allen Craig to the outfield full time, to make space for Matt Adams at first might prove to be a drain on Bourjos’ endurance, as he’ll be covering both flanks (with Matt Holliday in left field and Craig in right). But those defensive concerns aren’t enough for me. The one area of mild concern is their rotation. Last fall, when the world was anointing Michael Wacha the best young pitcher in baseball (no, seriously, Curt Schilling said that: “ His mix and makeup are as good as any young pitcher I’ve seen in the game.”) I was perplexed. First, Clayton Kershaw is only 3 ½ years older than Wacha and more importantly, Wacha is a two-pitch pitcher. Over the course of a full season, that’s going to come back to haunt him. I still feel that way. That said, even if Wacha struggles, I don’t see a single challenger in this division. The Cardinals are the runaway NL Central favorite.
At Seasons End…The St. Louis Cardinals will find themselves back in the World Series.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Season: Magic! The Pirates finally made the playoffs and even though they were eliminated by St. Louis, ended the season poised to be a playoff contender for years to come, which is a weird sentence to write.
The Offseason: Well, they’re the Pirates, so they didn’t sign Jacoby Ellsbury or Masahiro Tanaka. But they did add Edinson Volquez. So…
Potential Breakout Player: Gregory Polanco won’t start the year in Pittsburgh, but he’ll likely finish it there and could be a key to any success Pittsburgh has in 2014. Polanco is a do-everything, top-tier prospect with an advanced approach at the age of 22. He’s probably ready for the Majors now, but Pittsburgh won’t rush him unless Jose Tabata is a total disaster. So expect to see Polanco by Memorial Day.
Additional Comment: This is a team that would have benefited greatly from knowing that someone like Doug Fister was available because Pittsburgh has the assets to have outbid the Nationals and could really use a groundball guy like Fister. The rotation is thin, being filled out at the back with Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Edinson Volquez. Jameson Taillon is waiting for his call-up, but Taillon doesn’t look to be the elite pitching prospect he was when the Pirates drafted him right after Bryce Harper and right before Manny Machado in the 2010 draft.
At Seasons End: They’ll get to play in the Major League Baseball Tries To Siphon Off Just One Extra Day of Coverage One-Game Playoff game again, but I don’t expect this team to make a real run at the World Series until a solid starter or two is brought in to accompany Gerrit Cole.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
Last Season: The Brewers’ best player, Ryan Braun, took a suspension plea deal for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal and the Brewers offense took a hit in his absence. They won just 74 games.
The Offseason: With a gaping hole in their rotation, the Brewers did what so few teams seem capable of doing: they added a good free agent starting pitcher. Matt Garza didn’t necessarily come cheap, but he’ll bolster a rotation with some upside to it. The Brewers also added Mark Reynolds. I just wrote that to make this section look bigger.
Potential Breakout Player: No team in baseball has a worse system than the Brewers. There is truly no “unknown” talent anywhere near their Major League club. The Brewers didn’t land a single prospect on Keith Law’s Top 100 prospects list and he wrote “no one was close.” He’s not lying.
Additional Comment: Look for the Brewers to trade former No. 2 overall draft pick Rickie Weeks at some point to a team in need of second base help. Weeks is now below a guy named Scooter on the team’s depth chart and the Brewers would be clearly desperate to bring back anyone with any real upside, despite the fact that Weeks may have seen his best days pass him by already.
At Seasons End…: The Brewers will have won a few more games than they did last year, but unlike a team like the Marlins, they won’t be set up for near future success, unless they can convince a lot of young free agents to move to Milwaukee.
4. Cincinnati Reds
Last Season: The Reds made the MLBTTSOJOEDOC One-Game Playoff game, losing to the Pirates 1-0. Then they fired Dusty Baker and hired first-time manager Brian Price, their former pitching coach.
The Offseason: Convinced that they didn’t need to do everything possible to keep Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 OBP at the top of their lineup, the Reds sat on their hands for a while before giving Homer Bailey a deal that in the year 2019 will pay him $23 million. I cannot believe I just typed that sentence and you shouldn’t believe you just read it.
Potential Breakout Player: Billy Hamilton is either going to become a household name or he’s going to be playing in Louisville by June. I don’t see any other scenario. He’s the fastest player in baseball, but speed is only good if you get on base. He’s not a good hitter (think Dee Gordon) and seems to have lost the patient approach that got him on-base at the lower levels of the minor leagues where he stole approximately 674 million bases.
Additional Comment: I don’t want to belabor the point, but the Homer Bailey contract is a head-scratcher to me and as a Nats fan, cannot mean that Jordan Zimmermann is going to come cheap. Homer Bailey is a perfectly fine pitcher with a couple of no-hitters to his name, but that’s really what he is. He’s a guy that can go out and be dominant a few times a year, but is mostly just pretty good. He’s like the rich man’s Edwin Jackson.
At Seasons End…: The Reds will be happy that the Cubs play in the same division. The loss of Choo is huge for this team. Outside of Joey Votto, this is not a team that gets on-base consistently or even well. Everyone is going to regress because of Choo’s absence. Why the Reds didn’t overpay for him I will never understand.
5. Chicago Cubs
Last Season: was a tire fire.
The Offseason: They brought in Justin Ruggiano and Jose Veras.
Potential Breakout Player: Javier Baez. Assuming that Starlin Castro continues to be himself, the Cubs would be wise to put their prized prospect into the everyday lineup and see what happens. Baez has incredible bat speed and should hit right away.
Additional Comment: Theo Epstein has built a great system in a short amount of time. Chicago should be a good team in the next five years. I’d imagine there will be another two seasons similar to 2013 before that happens, which just means more chances to draft elite players. There’s a smart way to rebuild and there’s the way a lot of other teams do it. Chicago is doing it the smart way.
At Seasons End…: The Cubs will still have not won a World Series since 1908.
NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Last Season: was a tire fire until Yasiel Puig showed up and single-handedly made baseball exciting again. The Dodgers stumbled out of the gate like a Philadelphian at the annual Mummers parade. They struggled to be competitive in May. Then, on June 3, at 23-32, with Stephen Fife scheduled to take the mound against the Padres, the Dodgers called up The Wild Horse. They’d go on to win 92 games and take the Cardinals to 6 games in the NLCS.
The Offseason: They smartly extended the undisputed best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, through the end of time. They also signed Dan Haren and Paul Maholm. And Yasiel Puig drove his car too fast.
Potential Breakout Player: Not applicable, unless you want to count Matt Kemp.
Additional Comment: The Dodgers outfield is very crowded. Matt Kemp, at one point arguably the best player in baseball, hasn’t played this spring after foot surgery. He hasn’t been really healthy since his “should have been” MVP season in 2011. When he returns, which could be in mid-April, the Dodgers will have a choice between Kemp, Puig, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier. One of them is going to be benched. That means one of them is not going to be happy. And I get the sense that player is going to be Puig. Speeding at the rates that he was is obviously not something to joke about, but the media crucifiction of Puig is embarrassing and I think it’s permeated into the Dodgers locker room from what I read about Manager Don Mattingly. Puig is a talent that needs patience and I fear that his incredible 2013 will end up hurting him in the long run. I don’t even think it’s outside of the realm of possibilities that the Dodgers could try to move Puig if Kemp is healthy because he’s the most desirable asset on their roster (significantly cheaper than any of the other three outfielders who will all earn at least $15.5 million this season). You can’t have a player of Puig’s skill sitting on your bench and you can’t have a player earning $20 million sitting on your bench. So something is going to have to give in Elysian Park. It’s the most fascinating story of this season to me.
At Seasons End…: The Dodgers will be thankful that they play in a weak division (perhaps baseball’s weakest). I expect them to make the playoffs because there’s just too much talent for them not to. But even with all of that talent, the Cardinals are a more complete team and won’t have the droning sound of sportswriter columnists peppering the clubhouse with questions about who should be the odd man out in the outfield. That said, the Dodgers will be a must-watch every night. Especially when they’re at home with Vin Scully calling games. Because Vin Scully is a treasure that we should all celebrate at every opportunity.
2-5: Who Knows?
Last Season: As they tend to do, the teams in the NL West shuffled deck chairs, with the Diamondbacks finishing at .500, followed closely behind by the Padres, Giants, and Rockies.
The Offseason: The biggest acquisition of the offseason for the four teams was probably Colorado adding Brett Anderson or San Diego adding Josh Johnson, this is of course assuming that they’re both perfectly healthy, which they’ve literally never been. And so that means that Mark Trumbo and his sub-.300 OBP in Arizona or Tim Hudson and his being old take the trophy for “biggest offseason move” among the four also-rans.
Potential Breakout Player: This should be easier, given a pool of four teams to work with, but, well, it’s not. I’m going with the long-shot of Archie Bradley in Arizona. Bradley, the Diamondbacks top prospect, might not pitch in the rotation until an injury forces GM Kevin Towers’ hand, but Bradley is the real deal. And he’d benefit greatly from not having to pitch in pitcher-unfriendly Reno.
Additional Comment: The Dodgers used to be part of this deck chair routine before they became baseball’s biggest spenders. This routine is wearing paper thin, frankly. None of these teams ever seems to make the true, conscious effort to rebuild like the Cubs and Astros presently are. They add a piece here, trade a prospect there, and remain thoroughly mediocre throughout. Even the Giants, who have won two World Series trophies since 2010, can best be described as thoroughly mediocre. Each year they won the World Series, you’d be hard pressed to argue that they were the best team in baseball. In 2014, one of these teams is going to finish with 85 wins and secure a spot in the play-in game. The following year? They’ll probably finish in last place. Welcome to the NL West.
At Seasons End….: I like the Rockies to surprise and finish in second, followed by the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants. Offensively, if we assume a healthy Troy Tulowitzki (yes, I know what happens when you assume), the Rockies are unquestionably the best team of the four. The starting pitching goes about three guys deep, but really, the same can be said about the other teams involved too. Forgive me if I don’t sound too excited about 80% of the NL West.
NL Playoffs
Play-In Game: Pittsburgh over Colorado
Wild Card Round: St. Louis over Washington, Los Angeles over Pittsburgh
NLCS: St. Louis over Los Angeles
NL Awards
MVP: Yadier Molina
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (really going out on a limb there)
Rookie of the Year: Gregory Polanco
Mid-Atlantic Bias 