*Important(?) Note* I started working on this post in mid-May. From then to the time that I hit publish in a few moments, a lot of things have happened relevant to the World Cup. Luis Suarez had knee surgery (not mentioned below because I had written the Uruguay post prior to that news) and many nations have finalized their 23-man rosters (I wrote the US’s post after Clarence Goodson was left off the 23-man roster). Between the time you see this and the time the World Cup starts, even more things will happen. That’s sort of the thing with life. Things happen.*
On June 12, you will finally be required by law to watch the kind of football you don’t think you enjoy, but probably would if you would just give it a chance.
Like me with bell peppers or the beach, you might have the preconceived notion that you hate soccer. In fact, you might have tried to watch soccer before and realized, ugh, “this doesn’t taste good,” er, “I don’t enjoy watching this.”
But like I have with bell peppers and the beach, you too will realize the beauty and complexity of soccer, once you get past all of the screaming children in the sand or the jarring mixture of textures. Or whatever it is that predisposes you to hating world football.
Every four years, much like Michael Phelps and Paul Begala, the World Cup pops up and reminds you that it exists. I’ve said before that following club soccer can be a bit of a challenge. It’s a challenge I enjoy very much. But I understand the objection some have. Sort of. Not really.
In England alone, clubs can compete in four different tournaments at the same time (the Premier League season, the UEFA Champions or Europa leagues, the Football Association Cup, and the League Cup). This is very complicated and frankly, not all of the clubs take every one of those matches quite seriously. And beyond that, it’s often difficult to keep track of which player is playing where, with star players being bought and sold like Eminem CDs at an FYE (dated reference?).
The World Cup though is different. The World Cup is a battle for, well, world superiority. Players aren’t traded by their countries (though if Brazil would like to trade David Luiz to the US for Eddie Johnson, sign me up). There aren’t four different tournaments happening at once. 32 teams are divided in a somewhat balanced manner into 8 groups of 4. One month later, a champion is crowned.
This year’s World Cup takes place in Brazil, whose primary export is one-named soccer players. And while the lead up to this tournament hasn’t exactly been the joyous political celebration one would hope for, I try to keep the politics out of this blog, so we’ll focus solely on the football.
What will follow will be a fairly long post, with a brief synopsis of what to expect from each of the 32 nations, players to watch, key group stage matches, and other minutiae. If you care not for that stuff, just scroll down to the bottom to see who I’m picking to win the whole darn thing. Otherwise, happy reading/typo catching.
GROUP A or NO, REALLY, THIS IS TOTALLY FAIR. WE’RE NOT GIVING BRAZIL AN ADVANTAGE
Brazil
Past Success: Winners in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002. Fell to the Netherlands in the quarterfinals in 2010.
Expectations: Anything outside of victory is a failure at any World Cup for Brazil. In a World Cup played on Brazilian soil those lofty expectations are only magnified.
Key Match: June 12 v. Croatia. Brazil will play, as hosts, in the traditional opening match of the tournament. The Croats should not be a challenge to the Brazilians, but what will be is how this young team responds to the pressure that day.
Crucial Player: Neymar (Forward). The young superstar backed up all of the hype about him at the 2013 Confederations Cup, but the World Cup is a different animal. After a season at Barcelona it will be interesting to see how much the young forward has developed and matured. Known at times for diving and being an instigator, Neymar will have to lead by example, even if the traditional captainship belongs to central defender Thiago Silva.
Cameroon
Past Success: Final 8 (aka the Quarterfinals) in 1990.
Expectations: The pack of teams beyond Brazil are all very evenly matched on paper. Many will expect The Indomitable Lions to struggle playing in South America. Getting out of Group A should be considered a success.
Key Match: June 13 v. Mexico. A fascinating match on paper, this will be a table-setter in the race for the second bid into the knockout stage. Much like for Mexico, a win here will give the Cameroonians hope that they can succeed against popular opinion.
Crucial Player: Samuel Eto’o (F). The captain might be 73 years old (he’s “only” 33), but he’s still the most important player on this squad. The defense and midfield possess players with top flight European experience like Benoit Assou-Ekotto (currently QPR, formerly Tottenham Hotspur) and Alex Song (Barcelona), but Eto’o is the leader of the bunch and will need to be a scoring threat.
Croatia
Past Success: Third place in 1998.
Expectations: Strange. This is a really solid squad. Unfortunately for them, their best player, Bayern Munich striker Mario Mandzukic is suspended for the opening game against Brazil because he’s kind of an insane person (in this instance, for a studs-high (that is, going in deliberately with your cleats) attack on an opponent in the second leg of Croatia’s World Cup playoff game). Knowing that they’ll likely be down 3 points right away, their margin for error is nil. But there’s enough talent here to see them into the Round of 16.
Key Match: June 23 vs. Mexico. It’ll be the last match of the group for both teams and could be the decider for the second spot in the Round of 16.
Crucial Player: Luka Modric (MF). Never a model for consistency as a footballer, Modric will need to be the table-setter for Croatia if they’re going to advance. He ended the season at Real Madrid as a fixture in their lineup and a key contributor. He’ll need to be more than just a contributor, especially without Mandzukic in match 1 against Brazil.
Mexico
Past Success: Round of 8 in 1970 and 1986.
Expectations: After nearly missing the tournament, no team enters the World Cup as more of a wild card than El Tri. The team that has seen more managers in the past 9 months than an Arby’s will see in 9 years, has the talent to match their previous World Cup high-water marks and the soap opera drama to see them take the trip back north on June 24 with nothing to show for a tumultuous four year period.
Key Match: June 23 vs. Croatia. Croatia is probably better on paper than Mexico, especially given the trials and tribulations we’ve seen, but this Mexican team can be dynamic and could out-gun the Croats.
Crucial Player: Rafa Marquez (CB or CDM…in short, he plays in the middle and marks the other team’s best striker). In a group with Samuel Eto’o, Neymar, and, when El Tri face them, an un-suspended Mario Mandzukic, Marquez might have the toughest job of any centerback in the entire group stage. Look for him to be ultra physical, especially with the young Neymar, who he could rattle.
In the end…
1. Brazil (9 points)
2. Croatia (4 points)
3. Mexico (2 points)
4. Cameroon (1 point)
GROUP B or SORRY, AUSTRALIA
Australia
Past Success: Advanced to the knockout round in the 2006 World Cup (Germany).
Expectations: In this group, 3 points would be a really nice trip to Brazil for the Socceroos. They’re currently ranked 59th in the world by FIFA.
Key Match: June 13 vs. Chile. If they’re going to have any chance at advancing out of this group (they won’t), they’ll need to beat Chile and do it convincingly (they won’t).
Crucial Player: Mile Jedinak (MF). Jedinak is coming off of a surprisingly successful season in England with Crystal Palace and will captain this squad of older players who will try to defend solidly at the back and score on counter attacks.
Chile
Past Success: 3rd place, 1962 (played coincidentally in Chile)
Expectations: A dark horse to finish second in this group, given their acclimation to playing in South America and a FIFA ranking of 13.
Key Match: June 23 vs. Netherlands. This is probably Spain’s group to lose. It’s very likely both teams enter this match with three points (thanks Australia!!!) knowing a win will get them to the knockout round.
Crucial Player: Alexis Sanchez (Forward). Chile will need the Barcelona star (they’re all stars at Barcelona) to bury whatever chances he gets to score if they’re going to advance. They’ll also need Juventus midfielder Arturo Vidal to be the table-setter for the strikers that he consistently is in Italy.
Netherlands
Past Success: Runner-up to Spain in 2010. Also runners up in 1974 and 1978.
Expectations: Relatively low for a Dutch squad. Dutch football, or at least this version, is built around scoring goals. Scoring goals often comes from team chemistry. This team has none of that.
Key Match: June 13 vs. Spain. The rematch of the 2010 Final will set the tone for the group stage for the Dutch. A bad loss could infect the camp and cause an early exit.
Crucial Player: Arjen Robben (MF). Robben is a tough player to figure out. He’s blessed with incredible acceleration and a daft finishing touch. He’s also a diver who is commonly known to be disliked by a number of his fellow countrymen. His motivation, especially after a long and mostly successful run with Bayern Munich this season, will be a huge factor.
Spain
Past Success: Winners in 2010, their only victory in the tournament.
Expectations: Not as high as you’d expect. No European team has ever won the World Cup on South American soil and this Spanish side comes in with questions up front.
Key Match: June 13 vs. Netherlands. I can’t find a soul who thinks that Spain is going to lose to the Dutch in the opening match of the group. But tone setting is important. A shaky performance could give the Chileans added confidence heading into the second match in the group stage.
Crucial Player: Diego Costa (F). On a team with names like Xavi, Iniesta, Sergio Busquets, Iker Casillas, Cesc Fabregas, Pique, David Silva, and Sergio Ramos, Spain’s success will come down to whether or not the Brazilian born striker is healthy and can score goals with the proclivity he showed at Atletico Madrid in 2013-14. Anything but the best from Costa (who may have a hamstring tear that will keep him out of the tournament), a player with exactly one appearance with Spain to his name, means relying on some shaky, aging strikers for Spain, which could spell doom in the knockout stage.
In the end…
1. Spain (9 points)
2. Chile (6 points)
3. Netherlands (3 points)
4. Australia (0 points)
GROUP C or GROUP OF EASY KNOCKOUT STAGE OPPONENTS
Columbia
Past Success: Knockout stage in 1990. That’s it. That’s the greatest footballing success in Colombia’s history.
Expectations: They were very high. I say “were” because their best player, Radamel Falcao, tore his ACL earlier this year. Typical recovery times would have him out for the World Cup. The AS Monaco star however is on the provisional roster for Colombia and is, in his mind, on track to play in this tournament with about half the required rehab time. So your guess is as good as mine as to what the expectations should be. Especially in such a lackluster group.
Key Match: These four teams are so similar that every match is a crucial and hard to predict match. If Falcao was healthy, this group would flesh out differently. Without him, Colombia is probably not significantly better than Japan, Greece, or the Ivory Coast.
Crucial Player: Radamel Falcao (F). If he plays and is even close to healthy, he is electric enough to propel this team towards the semifinals. Colombia ran over their competition in qualifying for this World Cup in a most un-Colombian way. If Falcao is unhealthy, they’ll have an impossibly difficult time scoring goals with the burden left on the shoulders of Porto striker Jackson Martinez who is not Falcao.
Cote d’Ivoire
Past Success: They have only qualified for the World Cup twice (in 2006 and 2010) and did not advance past the group stage in either tournament.
Expectations: They come in ranked 21st in the world and possessing the world’s best midfielder in Yaya Toure and a group of prolific scorers in Didier Drogba (36 years old), Wilfried Bony, Gervinho, and Salomon Kalou. They can win this group if their lackluster, old, and somewhat patchwork defense can play even mildly well. Scoring goals won’t be the problem. An escape from the group will be a nice step for Les Elephants.
Key Match: June 19 v. Colombia. I promise I’m not being paid for each mention of the Colombian striker, but if he’s healthy, this will be an electric goal scoring fest. If he’s not healthy, it’ll be a must-win for Les Elephants.
Crucial Player: Yaya Toure (MF). We learned a lot of things about Yaya Toure this season. We learned that he is the world’s best center midfielder when he’s motivated. We learned that in the 89th minute of play, he’s faster than a Bugatti on a straightaway in the Utah desert. We learned that he’s lethal from the spot (penalty kicks). We learned that he really, really loves his birthday. What we’ll find out in Brazil is if he can lead an unbalanced team to success previously unseen by playing both ways, because his physicality will be needed defensively.
Greece
Past Success: Qualified for the World Cup in 1994 and 2010. Did not advance past the group stage. Sensing a theme? The Greeks did win the 2004 Euros (like the World Cup but for, well, European nations) in a surprise, so they have some history of success.
Expectations: Can they get out of the group? Certainly. FIFA has them ranked 10th in the world presently. Can they win a knockout stage match against one of the teams from Group D? That’s unlikely.
Key Match: June 24 vs. Cote d’Ivoire. It could be for all the marbles and a more favorable Round of 16 draw. Or it could be as part of a muddled, messy race to get an all-important three points in a group that will likely see a lot of draws.
Crucial Player: Vasilis Torosidis (LB). Playing on the left side defensively, Torosidis will be key to Greece’s attack. He’s also an outside specialist with 7 goals in his international career, despite playing from the back. He’ll be joined by everyone short of Jesse Consopolous.
Japan
Past Success: A 5-time qualifier, the Japanese have twice advanced out of the group stage (2002, 2010), making them perhaps the most successful nation in this awful group.
Expectations: This is not the 2010 Japanese team. Currently ranked 47th in the world, it’s hard to see this team providing much of a threat in the midfield, or on the back line. It’s also very difficult to gauge the expectations of Asian nations because they don’t face the same level of competition as the teams in UEFA (Europe) and CONMEBOL (South America). One thing this team can do, if their forwards get the opportunity, is score.
Key Match: June 14 v. Cote d’Ivoire. Conceding 3 points in this match will be a quick nail in the coffin for the Japanese national team.
Crucial Player: Shinji Kagawa (F). The Manchester United player and former Borussia Dortmund star isn’t so much the straw that stirs the drink as much as he is the glass, ice, tonic, gin, and lime wedge. Whether he was shackled playing for the Red Devils or whether his success at Dortmund was a mirage, he’ll need to put this team on his back in the group stage if they’re to repeat their success from 2010.
In the end…
1. Colombia (7 points)
2. Cote d’Ivoire (5 points)
3. Greece (2 points)
4. Japan (1 point)
GROUP D or THE REAL GROUP OF DEATH
Costa Rica
Past Success: Advanced to the knockout round in 1990. Haven’t advanced past the group stage in their two appearances since 1990.
Expectations: In this group, they’re going to play the spoiler. England, Italy, and Uruguay could all conceivably make a run at the semifinals. One of them is going to go home after only three matches and Costa Rica could have something to say about that.
Key Match: June 24 v. England. Who knows what will have happened before the final matches of Group D is played. But if England needs 3 points entering this match, those three points could be hard to come by.
Crucial Player: Bryan Ruiz (F). The PSV (Dutch League) goal-scorer will be the primary offensive focal point for a team who knows their place coming into this tournament. On a squad lacking players with true top level, Champions League-quality experience, Ruiz will have to lead by example. Especially in a group with the likes of Mario Balotelli, Luis Suarez, and Wayne Rooney, to name just 3 of the 69 players on the other three squads who bring a world more experience in the international game.
England
Past Success: The 13-time participant has only won the World Cup once, in 1966. England fans are totally unaware of this fact and don’t constantly remind themselves and the players of it.
Expectations: It’s England. In a World Cup. It doesn’t matter if they’re playing it on the surface of Neptune, the English fans, players, and the Football Association will all expect the trophy to come back to the motherland.
Key Match: June 19 v. Uruguay. Beyond the intrigue of Luis Suarez squaring off against a number of his Liverpool teammates (as many as six Reds could see significant playing or even starting time on this squad), a win by the English against a South American opponent on South American soil could be a really big statement. Especially against a 2010 semifinalist.
Crucial Player: Joe Hart (GK). I could literally pick any of the 23 players on this squad and make a coherent argument for why they’re important. For the young guys, one of them is going to need to be a dependable off-the-bench guy. For Daniel Sturridge, he’s going to need to show that he can score without Luis Suarez. For Steven Gerrard, he’ll need to show that, in perhaps his final World Cup, his selection was a wise one. But Hart is the wild card here. As a Manchester City fan I can tell you that Hart is the best goalkeeper in the world on occasion. Most other times, he’s erratic. Almost confused. Against the strikers England will face in its first two matches especially, Hart will need to be much closer to the former than the latter if The Three Lions are going to play in the Round of 16
Italy
Past Success: Winners in 1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006.
Expectations: In 2010, the Italians went to South Africa and finished fourth in their group, behind noted soccer powerhouses New Zealand, Paraguay, and Slovakia. For a four-time champion, with the level of talent possessed by the Italians, this was an embarrassment, only outdone by their 2006 Finals opponent France, who we’ll get to a bit later. In 2014, Italy carries with it the same burden of “No European Team Has Ever…” into South America that the likes of England and Germany and Spain do, but they don’t have the same pressure that those countries do. England, Germany, and Spain didn’t fail spectacularly in 2010. Expectations are probably mixed. But that’s when Gli Azzurri (the Italian national team’s nickname, not an aging fullback) is most dangerous. No one really expected the 2006 team to win the tournament, but they did, using their strong, 3 man defensive back line and goalkeeper Gigi Buffon to grind out victories. This team is no different, and frankly, the talent level may be better.
Key Match: June 14 v. England. A fantastic matchup of Serie A all-stars versus Barclays Premier League stars, this match will be the key to this entire group. A draw muddles the picture some. A victory by either side makes Uruguay’s path to the Round of 16 that much easier.
Crucial Player: Mario Balotelli (F). The enigmatic striker is without question, one of the world’s most talented players. Built like an NFL linebacker, Balotelli possesses slot receiver speed, and a flair for the most dramatic. He’s also the world’s most famous headcase. He is a man whose Wikipedia page reads like a sketch comedy show. He helped carry Italy to the finals of the 2012 European Championship, where they fell to Spain. If Super Mario is right (mentally), Italy can go a long way in this tournament because the roster around him is filled with experience, some youth, physicality, and dynamism. This will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch in Brazil.
Uruguay
Past Success: Winners in 1930 and 1950. Advanced to the semifinals in 2010.
Expectations: The Uruguayans are an interesting case in this tournament. Yes, they’re coming off of a miraculous run to the 2010 World Cup Semifinals, where they nearly beat the Dutch. Yes, they have one of the world’s three best goalscorers in his prime. Yes, they’re playing in their neighbor’s backyard. And yes, they have a really awesome flag. But Uruguay struggled mightily to qualify for this tournament, needing to win a final spot through a two-leg matchup with soccer non-power Jordan. They drew 0-0 at home, after trouncing the Jordanians in the Middle East. And so while expectations should be high, nothing that Uruguay has done since South Africa in 2010 would lead you to believe that they can make a serious run in this tournament.
Key Match: June 14 v. Costa Rica. It seems strange to pick this match because their next two opponents are England and Italy, respectively. But I think we’ll have a good idea which Uruguay has shown up by how they handle Costa Rica. They should win by multiple goals on talent alone. If they don’t, Italy and England might breathe a sigh of relief.
Crucial Player: Edinson Cavani (F). You would think that Luis Suarez, the aforementioned goal-scoring wizard, would be the crucial player, but it is Cavani who has often found it difficult to fit in to the Uruguayan offensive attack. And Cavani has just spent a year as a passive fixture in Paris Saint-Germain’s offensive attack, spending a good deal of time watching Zlatan Ibrahimovic (not in your picture for the 2014 World Cup) tear up Ligue 1 in France. Cavani cannot be passive in Brazil. Suarez showed at Liverpool this season that he’s at his best with a sidekick. Daniel Sturridge played that role perfectly, but unfortunately for fans of Los Charruas, Sturridge doesn’t have a Uruguayan grandmother. With Uruguay weak defensively and in the midfield, goal scoring will be key. Suarez can’t do it alone.
In the end…
1. Italy 7 points
2. England 7 points
3. Uruguay 1 point
4. Costa Rica 1 point
GROUP E or YOU’RE WELCOME, FRANCE
Ecuador
Past Success: This will be their third trip to a World Cup. In 2006, they advanced to the knockout round.
Expectations: None. Zero. Zilch. Unlike, well, nearly every other South American nation outside of Suriname, Ecuador has no history of success. Their first trip to the World Cup came in 2002. Currently ranked 28th in FIFA’s rankings, they are the underdoggiest of South American underdogs in this tournament, with only one player on their roster (read more about him in a second!) with recent big-time European club experience. A trip out of the group stage, even in perhaps the weakest group in the tournament, would be a great outcome for Ecuador.
Key Match: June 20 v. Honduras. Evenly matched in a lot of ways, if either team loses this match, their trip to Brazil will be over before it started.
Crucial Player: Antonio Valencia (MF). The captain and Manchester United player leads a squad of mostly Ecuadorian club players. It’s incumbent on a guy with a reputation for uneven play in England to be a rock for a team that will need on-the-field leadership.
France
Past Success: 14th appearance. Winners in 1998. Runners-up in 2006.
Expectations: France’s 2010 trip to South Africa went about as poorly as a trip could go. Les Blues pulled the soccer equivalent of being mistaken for a criminal and getting thrown in jail without a trial by lawyer, before eventually having your body dumped into a crocodile pond. Turmoil, in fighting, and a hated coach led France from group favorites to last place finishers (behind South Africa). Now, under new leadership, this club brings a wealth of big time experience and star power into a group that they should wipe the floor with. And very well might.
Key Match: June 15 v. Honduras. I’m inclined to say “none,” but I’ll go with the table-setter. This is not a team built with a solid foundation of togetherness. A draw or loss against a mediocre Honduras side could shake up Group E like (insert a metaphor for Shake n’ Bake).
Crucial Player: Franck Ribery (MF). There’s no wrong answer to this question. France lacks a real weakness. They’re so solid that they left Samir Nasri, starter and key player for EPL champions Manchester City, at home. Ribery is a vexing player. His temper has gotten the best of him in the past. But his talent is unparalleled in this group. If France does have a weakness (they don’t), it’s up front (it’s not). Ribery’s goal scoring ability on the wing will be a boost to whomever starts up front between Karim Benzema, Loic Remy, and Olivier Giroud.
Honduras
Past Success: Qualified for two previous World Cups, including 2010, where they finished last in Group H, behind fellow 2014 Group E participant Switzerland.
Expectations: A dark horse pick here in the States, I think people forget that they’re not playing this tournament in Honduras. The roster features a number of MLS players, and a couple of English Championship division guys, but no true star. A first-time trip out of the Group Stage would be deemed a big success.
Key Match: June 25 v. Switzerland. The two played to a 0-0 draw in the 2010 Group Stage. Given the relative equality of the non-France teams in this group, all of the points are going to be vital.
Crucial Player: Roger Espinoza (MF). The Wigan Athletic man is a dynamic wing player, with EPL experience. As rudimentary of a point as it may be, sometimes having a singular dynamic force can be all the difference.
Switzerland
Past Success: Making their 10th appearance, the Swiss haven’t reached the Quarterfinals since 1954.
Expectations: Switzerland comes into this tournament as a top-10 team (no. 8) in FIFA’s rankings, which would surprise you if you took FIFA’s rankings really seriously. That said, on talent alone, the Swiss are much better than Ecuador and Honduras. The problem is that they’ve never really put that talent together in a World Cup. It’s a roster made up of guys who play very different styles of football, in very different leagues: (Serie A (Italy) and the Bundesliga (Germany)). Much like with Uruguay, talent is wonderful, but you can have great ingredients and come out with a really crappy dish.
Key Match: June 25 v. Honduras. Group E’s second place spot will likely come down to this match.
Crucial Player: Gokhan Inler (MF). The captain and Napoli midfielder is in every way the straw that stirs the Swiss drink (cocoa with mini-marshmallows). The defensive back for Switzerland is solid, as is the rest of the midfield. It’s up front where the strikers will need great service from the mid. It’ll be incumbent on Inler to place balls well for the inexperienced strikers to poach from.
In the end…
1. France 9 points
2. Switzerland 6 points
3. Honduras 1 point
4. Ecuador 1 point
GROUP F or A REALLY UNCOMPELLING BATTLE FOR SECOND PLACE
Argentina
Past Success: Participating in their 15th World Cup, the Argentines won the tournament in 1978 and 1986. They suffered a disappointing 4-0 loss to Germany in the 2010 World Cup quarterfinals.
Expectations: High. But how high? Currently ranked 6th by FIFA, Argentina boasts one of the two most recognizable active soccer players in the world in Lionel Messi. Messi will turn 27 during this tournament, and will likely have two more World Cup go-rounds in his career. But so far, the player regarded by some as the best in the world has been a disappointment at the world’s biggest tournament, most recently netting zero goals in South Africa. Offensively, Argentina is a powerhouse. Beyond Messi, there’s Sergio Agüero, Gonzalo Higuaín, Ezequiel Lavezzi, and Angel di Maria, all stars in the European game and all capable of big things on the pitch. The questions for Argentina are defensive depth and in net, where the likely starter, Sergio Romero, is a less than elite goalkeeper. The best thing going for Argentina outside of their offensive attack, though, is a relatively easy path to the quarterfinals, assuming a victory in Group F.
Key Match: Not Applicable. Argentina is many classes better than any of three teams they’ll face to start this tournament. Anything short of 9 points in those three matches would be a disaster, even given their defensive questions.
Crucial Player: Pablo Zabaleta (RB). At Manchester City, Zabaleta made a name for himself playing end to end, often streaking up the pitch past the midfielder playing in front of him, crossing balls into the box. He was a rock for a Man City team that battled injuries throughout their championship campaign in 2013-14. In Brazil, Zabaleta will anchor an otherwise flimsy defensive line. He’ll get help from the supremely physical (see: dirty) Javier Mascherano playing a defensive midfield position, but with all of their offensive firepower, Argentina will need Zabaleta to be more defensive-minded than he’s been accustomed to being in club play.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Past Success: Absolutely none as this is the first time Bosnia and Herzegovina have qualified for a World Cup final.
Expectations: Also absolutely none. If having players with accent marks in their names equaled goals, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B and H from here on out) would be our champions. Outside of that, you’re looking at a team ranked by FIFA in the mid-20s with a star striker (Edin Dzeko), a Premier League goalkeeper (Asmir Begovic), and 21 other guys of similar skill to each other. Of note, B and H played Argentina in late 2013 in a friendly (in the common city of St. Louis, Missouri, USA) and lost 2-0 and followed that up with a 2-0 loss to Egypt.
Key Match: June 21 v. Nigeria. Not to take anything away from Iran (but I am), but this should be your battle for second place in this group.
Crucial Player: Edin Dzeko (F). The crucial player is not always the biggest star, but in B and H’s case, it is. It’s unrealistic to think that the first-time participant can have any modicum of success in Brazil without a big tournament from Dzeko. That will mean lots of poached goals and physical play with opposing defenders. If Dzeko shies away from that, B and H will be left without much of a prayer.
Iran
Past Success: Participants in 1978, 1998, and 2006, Iran has never exited the Group Stage.
Expectations: About as high as you’d expect for a team made up almost entirely of Iranian club team players.
Key Match: June 21 v. Argentina. Because, why not? Expectations for this match will be lower than perhaps any other team will face in this tournament. The gulf in class is enormous. With nothing to lose, this is Iran’s World Cup Final.
Crucial Player: I’d be lying if I said I watched a lot of Iran Pro League football. I don’t know a single player on this roster outside of Fulham winger Ashkan Dejagah, who I don’t expect to be much of a dominant force in this tournament. Anyone who says they know more about the Iranian national team is either Iranian, an insane person, or a really terrible liar.
Nigeria
Past Success: This will be the Super Eagles (best nickname in international football) fourth trip to the World Cup with runs out of the group stage in 1994 and 1998.
Expectations: There’s certainly hope for a run out of this group. In 2010, Nigeria was paired with Argentina, Korea Republic, and Greece and mustered only 1 point (a draw with South Korea). That South Korea team advanced to the knockout stage with just 4 points. My point is, as long as Nigeria beats Iran, they’ve got a shot. But an extended run in this tournament is not in the forecast.
Key Match: June 21 v. Bosnia and Herzegovina. Don’t expect many goals from this match and don’t set your DVR to record it, hoping to catch one of the classics of the sport. This will be a brutally physical, slow, sludge of a match. Nigeria doesn’t have any true goal scoring prowess and will rely on a physical backline and their crucial player to slow down Edin Dzeko and try to keep this match 0-0 and maybe steal a goal late.
Crucial Player: John Obi Mikel (DM). Mikel is not the kind of midfielder you can expect goals from. In 57 international matches, the 27 year old Chelsea player has 4 goals. He’s not here to score. He’s here to defend. In the past, Nigeria was known for their attack. That won’t be the case in 2014. In Brazil, they’ll need their backline and their central defensive midfielder to key them to victory (by draw).
In the end…
1. Argentina 9 points
2. Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 points
3. Nigeria 4 points
4. Iran 0 points
GROUP G or THE GROUP OF DEATH IF YOU IGNORE ALL THE FATAL FLAWS
Germany
Past Success: 17 time participants, and three time winners (most recently as West Germany in 1990). Germany finished 3rd in the 2006 and 2010 tournaments.
Expectations: Championship or bust. Regarded by many as the best side in Europe right now, Germany is that continent’s favorite to win its first South American World Cup.
Fatal Flaw: A special category for this group. Here in the US, we’ve heard a lot about how this is the GROUP OF DEATH and for the US, it is in a very symbolic way because all of these teams have recently eliminated the US from World Cups. But each team has a very glaring fatal flaw. For Germany it’s their complete lack of a true, natural striker. They will likely bring only two into this tournament. One of them is 35 year old Miroslav Klose and the other is 21 year old Kevin Volland. Each have their own fairly obvious problems. The midfield is the best and deepest in the world. There’s no argument there. Anyone who tries to argue by using the names “Xavi” and “Iniesta” is wrong. Germany’s second team midfield is still one of the three best in the world. But who is going to score those goals? The 35 year old who probably can’t give you 90 minutes or the 21 year old with exactly 1 international appearance in his young career?
Key Match: June 16 v. Portugal. A contender for the most intriguing match of the entire Group Stage, this will be the ultimate battle of team v. player. Team most often wins that contest, but player isn’t often as good as Cristiano Ronaldo in his prime.
Crucial Player: Philipp Lahm (DF or MF). There are very few players in the world like Germany’s captain. He’s my height (if you just stumbled upon this blog with no idea who I am or who Philipp Lahm is, I’m 5’8” on a good day), but plays a physical game. He’s a skilled enough midfielder that, despite being a natural fullback, could probably start on the wing on about 27 of the other midfields in this tournament. Where he starts for Germany is basically irrelevant (and as of me typing this, Germany has yet to finalize their 23-man roster). Lahm is going to play everywhere and do everything. If he does that well, Germany is a good bet to break through.
Ghana
Past Success: While it might seem like Ghana has the World Cup pedigree of Germany, this is only their third trip to the tournament, with their first being in 2006. After beating the US in 2010, Ghana advanced to the quarterfinals before ultimately losing to Uruguay on penalty kicks.
Expectations: Put it this way: Ghana would love to trade places with their African rivals Nigeria. The Black Stars (it’s their nickname, not a Donald Sterling thing) might be ranked just 38th in the world, but they boast far more talent on whole than any other African nation. Coming off of a near-trip to the semifinals in 2010 has to be a big feather in their cap. They’d just rather be in Nigeria’s group than this one.
Fatal Flaw: Goaltending. Whomever starts in net is coming in with very few international appearances and the experience of playing in either the Norwegian League, the First Capital Plus Bank Premier League (Ghana), or the Premier Soccer League (South Africa). In other words, they haven’t seen the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, the German midfield, or um…Jozy Altidore, very often.
Key Match: June 16 v. United States. Simply put: a must-win for either side, right out of the gate.
Crucial Player: Kevin Prince-Boateng (MF, FW). Prince doesn’t necessarily have a position. He can score goals. He can defend and do it very physically. And he can control the ball. He’s a dynamic player who still at age 27 hasn’t quite figured out what he is and how to be the best at whatever that is. If he plays well, Ghana could be the surprise team of this tournament.
Portugal
Past Success: This will be just the sixth time that Portugal has appeared in a World Cup. Their best finish was in 1966 when they wound up in third. In 2010, they lost 1-0 to Spain in the Round of 16.
Expectations: High. Even though they needed to win a playoff against Sweden to qualify for the World Cup, Portugal comes in ranked 3rd in the world. Of course, much of that is due to FIFA’s weirdness. Portugal isn’t the third best team in Europe, never mind the third best in the world. But with Cristiano Ronaldo in his prime and playing probably the most consistently great soccer of his career, an exit before the knockout stage would be devastating.
Fatal Flaw: One player teams do not win the World Cup. Sure, there are 10 other guys on the field with Ronaldo who play at high levels, but let’s not lie, if Ronaldo has a bad tournament, Portugal has no hope. If he excels, Portugal could, maybe, win the whole thing. No other country with even a hint of a chance at glory relies so much on one singular force the way that Portugal does.
Key Match: June 16 v. Germany. A win would put the world on notice. A loss would put Portugal behind the 8 ball with little-to-no margin for error.
Crucial Player: If you’re unsure, you haven’t been reading this section.
United States
Past Success: A 10-time participant, the US’s best ever finish was 3rd place back when my grandfather was 3 years old (1930). Recently, the US won its group in 2010 only to be ousted by Ghana. They failed to get out of their group in 2006, somehow made it to the quarterfinals in 2002, and embarrassed themselves by finishing in last place in the 1998 World Cup.
Expectations: Prior to the announcement of the group pairings, I don’t think expectations could have been higher. Look, we’re the United States. We don’t go light on the self-absorption. This is probably the best side the US has ever fielded in a World Cup and Jurgen Klinsmann is the best coach the US has ever had. That said, the march to the knockout stage could be a very, very brief one.
Fatal Flaw: The US isn’t really that good. Yes, I believe that this is the best US team my eyes have ever seen. And yes, I think that the future of American soccer, assuming Klinsmann stays on past this World Cup (he recently signed an extension through 2018) is brighter than it has ever been. But if I’m going to be critical of the level of competition that other country’s players face in club play, I have to do the same with the US. The American backline (pick any four guys…we’ll go with Geoff Cameron, Matt Besler, Fabian Johnson, and DaMarcus Beasley) doesn’t defend against the German midfield when they play Costa Rica in qualifying. They don’t face a striker like Cristiano Ronaldo when they play Panama. And they don’t face an attack like Ghana’s when they’re playing Jamaica (and yes, I know that Cameron plays at Stoke City in England). As a unit, especially defensively, the U.S. has very few opportunities to play the best sides in the world in games that matter. See: a friendly victory of Germany’s C team last year. This team will be ready to go and I expect them to play their best. But sometimes, your best only leaves you in fourth place.
Key Match: June 16 v. Ghana. It’s probably a little dramatic to say that the future of American soccer depends on the outcome of this match, but I’m a pretty dramatic guy. A win and hope will be high against a Portugal side that the US could conceivably draw against. A loss or even a draw and you’ve got to beat Germany and Portugal and I just don’t see that as an option.
Crucial Player: Michael Bradley (MF). He’s the best guy that we’ve got. Many people, myself included, thought that Bradley was a product of his father being the coach (as he was for the 2010 run). We were wrong. The Bradley that has blossomed under Klinsmann is a force from end-to-end. With the ball at his feet, you feel confident that Bradley is going to make the right pass 100% of the time. I can’t remember a US player instilling that sense of confidence in me. Any success that the US will have in Brazil will be a result of how well Bradley plays.
In the end…
1. Germany 9 points
2. Portugal 6 points
3. Ghana 1 point
4. USA 1 point
GROUP H or ARE YOU REALLY GONNA SCREW THIS ONE UP, BELGIUM?
Algeria
Past Success: Three previous trips. Three previous Group Stage defeats.
Expectations: See: Past Success.
Key Match: June 22 v. Korea Republic. Loser goes home. Winner probably goes home too, though they’ll at least get to hang on to hope a bit longer.
Crucial Player: Islam Slimani (F). The Sporting Lisboa striker has 17 international appearances and 9 goals, which is a pretty good ratio when you’re a striker for Algeria.
Belgium
Past Success: 12 appearances in the World Cup has netted Belgium just one top-4 finish (1986). Most recently, they have spent World Cup season sitting at home in 2006 and 2010, falling to 71st in the world in 2007.
Expectations: Immense. As recently as October of last year, Belgium was ranked fifth in the world. An injury to striker Christian Benteke, in the past, would have severely diminished expectations, but now, Belgium will simply plug-in electric 21 year old wunderkind Romelu Lukaku. Pair that with one of the cakiest of cakewalks to the knockout stage and we’re in full-blown Belgian Football Renaissance mode. This is probably just the beginning of an era of elite footballing for Belgium, but it could be a very sweet beginning.
Key Match: June 22 v. Russia. The opening match against Algeria should be an easy three points. Russia will provide more of a test for Belgium.
Crucial Player: Thibaut Courtois (GK). Courtois is perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world right now at the age of 22. The Group Stage shouldn’t be a problem, but the knockout stage could see him staring at the familiar face of Portugal and Real Madrid star Cristiano Ronaldo. This is a Belgian side without any glaring weakness and so in that situation, it is incumbent on the greatest strengths to play to their full potential.
Korea Republic aka Not The Bad One
Past Success: Semifinalists (as the co-host nation) in 2002, Korea Republic, aka South Korea, has never gotten that close in any of their other 7 trips to the World Cup.
Expectations: Not high. The 2002 team this is not. Presently ranked just 55th in the world, it’s a team without much of an identity, bringing in players from seven different leagues in Asia and Europe. Qualifying was no easy task either, as South Korea lost a home match to Iran and drew with non-power Lebanon. Of note: a 2013 friendly loss to fellow Group H opponent Russia.
Key Match: June 17 v. Russia. THE REMATCH!!! Okay, maybe it’s not that dramatic, but this is likely going to be the “winner takes second place” match in the group, assuming both beat Algeria, as they should.
Crucial Player: Park Chu-Young (FW). Park has had very little success during his time at Arsenal as he’s seen very little playing time, but on the international stage, he’s shown himself to be South Korea’s best scoring threat.
Russia
Past Success: Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has failed to advance to the knockout stage, only qualifying for the World Cup once, in 2002.
Expectations: Favorites to win the whole thing, according to one source I spoke to while riding a horse shirtless in a field for no reason. But seriously, that’s a terrible joke. You deserve better. This Russian team is led by coach Fabio Capello, who coached England’s national team from 2008-2012. Capello has also coached at Real Madrid, Juventus, and AC Milan. He is an interesting choice for a team made up of 22 Russian League players and one guy who plays for Sevilla, as Capello’s Italian roots and style do not exactly match with whatever it is the Russian style of football is. That said, it’s a group of players who are talented enough to get out of Group H.
Key Match: June 17 v. South Korea. See above.
Crucial Player: Aleksandr Kerzhakov (FW). Truth be told, I probably could have just made up a name here, but Kerzhakov is part of an electric front line at Zenit Saint Petersburg, where he takes a bit of a backseat to Brazilian star Hulk. There’s no backseat on this team. He’ll need to finish his chances with consistency if Russia is to have any run in this tournament.
In the end…
1. Belgium 9 points
2. Russia 4 points
3. Korea Republic 3 points
4. Algeria 1 point
ROUND OF 16 MATCHES
Brazil v. Chile
Brazil beat Chile 3-0 in the Round of 16 at the 2010 World Cup with a less talented squad while not playing at home. I think Brazil’s attack is just too much for the Chileans to overcome. 4-1 Brazil.
Spain v. Croatia
The Spaniards will pass Croatia to death and defeat them in a clinical, if not totally uninspiring 1-0 manner.
Colombia v. England
This should be a real gem of a match regardless of who finishes in second place in Group D. This is no exception. I like the youth and depth of England to win this one in extra time, with a big nod to their defense shutting down Falcao. 2-1 in extra time to England.
Cote d’Ivoire v. Italy
Too much talent for Italy and not enough defensive skill to stop it for Cote d’Ivoire. 2-0 Italy prevails.
France v. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Another case of talent winning out. 3-0 in favor of the French.
Switzerland v. Argentina
Perhaps the largest gap in talent that you’ll find in the Round of 16, Argentina cruises past an overmatched Swiss side 3-0, continuing what looks to be an impossibly easy march to the Quarterfinals.
Germany v. Russia
Russia has the striker that Germany would love, but Germany has the midfield that everyone envies. They control the ball and bury two in the second half in a nervy 2-0 victory over Putin’s Boys.
Portugal v. Belgium
The most intriguing of all the potential matchups you see here. Ronaldo picks up a hat trick, but the balance of the Belgian squad prevails in a thrilling 4-3 match.
QUARTERFINAL MATCHES
Brazil v. England
A quartet of must-see matches is headlined by this battle of the world’s soccer super-power and the sport’s home. A plucky England side keeps it close late into the second half before Willian buries the only goal the hosts will need. Brazil wins 1-0.
France v. Germany
Germany’s lack of a scoring threat up front doesn’t catch up to them just yet, as they escape with a 2-1 victory, through penalty kicks, against a France side that will have made everyone forget the 2010 fiasco.
Spain v. Italy
A rematch of the 2012 European final, this match is just a repeat, as Spain’s possession drives the Italians crazy. Look for Italy to lose a man to a red card late in the first half, as Spain cruises to a 3-0 victory and a spot in the semifinals.
Argentina v. Belgium
The magical ride from also-ran in 2007 to world power in 2014 comes to a painful end for Belgium as Lionel Messi nets a brace and Argentina prevails with a 3-2 win in extra time, finally providing the Argentines with a real challenge on the pitch.
SEMIFINAL MATCHES
Brazil v. Germany
After struggling to put England away, Brazil comes out guns blazing against Germany, shocking them early with 2 goals in the first 10 minutes. Germany’s lack of a striker finally catches up to them as they can’t close the gap, ultimately falling 3-1 to Brazil.
Argentina v. Spain
Lionel Messi v. FC Barcelona, essentially. Advantage: Messi. Despite not possessing the defensive prowess of Italy, Argentina plays opossum against Spain, allowing them to control 75% of the match, but pouncing on mistakes and finishing on counter attacks, winning 2-1 to set up the most dramatic World Cup final in recent memory.
NO ONE CARES ABOUT THE THIRD PLACE MATCH MATCH
Germany v. Spain
Germany takes home their third consecutive third-place finish with a 2-1 victory.
WORLD CUP FINAL MATCH
Brazil v. Argentina
The two South American neighbors with little love lost between them. The two Barcelona attacking stars (Messi and Neymar) facing off. There will be every reason to watch this match. If it happens, I expect a shootout the likes of which you just don’t see at this level. Brazil’s strong defensive line is shredded by the speed of Messi and Aguero and the crossing of di Maria. Argentina’s weakness in goal is exploited repeatedly by Neymar, Willian, and Hulk. The two sides end 90 minutes tied at 4 goals apiece, but Brazil’s bench depth makes all the difference as a goal early in the second half of extra time by Fernandinho, a player who barely made the 23-man roster, gives Brazil their sixth World Cup title with a 5-4 victory.
Mid-Atlantic Bias 