A few weeks ago, a commercial for the Opening Night game between the Packers and Seahawks came on, and Amanda sighed, “Already? Does it ever stop?”

 

I’ve got to say, this isn’t just a non-football fan lamenting the return of a sport which dominates her Sunday afternoons and evenings. Even I am tired of the dominance of the NFL. Exciting things are happening in baseball right now. Clayton Kershaw is making a legitimate case to be the NL Cy Young and MVP award winner. The Angels, Athletics, and Mariners are in a surprising race for the AL West crown. Derek Jeter is retiri…..nevermind. The sport of soccer, on the heels of the World Cup, is thriving in the U.S. as NBC Sports’ Premier League ratings continue to defy expectations. But if the backup free safety for the Jacksonville Jaguars steals a Kit Kat, you can bet your last dollar that we’ll have Josina Anderson on the case live from Whatever It’s Called Stadium as part of an Outside the Lines special.

 

But hey, that doesn’t mean that I can’t write a few thousand words about the NFL season, right??? Right???? Sigh…Let’s just look at the divisions and how I predict them to finish:

 

 

1. Miami Dolphins 11-5

I know. I predicted similar things last year and they didn’t come to fruition, but much like with the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central, I’m going to keep riding the Miami Dolphins train until they win the division. I expect a big year from Ryan Tannehill thanks to a solid bond with now second-year Dolphin WR Mike Wallace and an offense more suited to Tannehill’s skill set.

 

2. New England Patriots 9-7

 With New England, I just don’t see the offensive tools being there, even if La Fiesta plays the entire season at TE. On the other side of the ball, this is a team with very limited depth in the front-seven, who will also be without free agent signing CB Brandon Browner while he serves his latest suspension. 

 

3. New York Jets 6-10

Geno Smith remains their quarterback.

 

4. Buffalo Bills 6-10

EJ Manuel remains their quarterback.

 

 

1. Cincinnati Bengals 11-5

Maybe the best defense east of Albuquerque, the Bengals only improved with the addition of rookie Darqueze Dennard, who I expect to have a “Revis Island” like impact. Meaning, he won’t win Defensive Rookie of the Year because the counting stats won’t be there, but he should. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton continues to fly way beneath the radar. True story: he’s been better in his first three seasons than Peyton Manning was in his. And he has AJ Green. 

 

2. Baltimore Ravens 8-8

A generally mediocre team all around. When I look at Joe Flacco, I don’t see marked improvement. And with no running game to speak of, I expect the Ravens to be anemic on the offensive side of the ball. 

 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-9

A late run nearly got Pittsburgh into the playoffs in 2013, but I think that was just a mirage. This is a team with a number of problems, especially in the defensive secondary and wide receiver positions. Couple that with the fragility of their enormous, immobile QB and I don’t see Pittsburgh getting over the hump.

 

4. Cleveland Browns 4-12

The four wins are a testament to how good their defense should be. The Browns go 4-deep at the CB position (while the Steelers go 1/2 deep). There’s also real depth at the linebacker position. The Browns offense, however, will not be quite so good. With Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin as their top receivers and career backup Ben Tate starting at running back, you’d already be leery. But joining them is Brian Hoyer, a capable NFL backup QB, but not someone you’d want to give the keys to your Porsche to. Why Johnny Manziel isn’t starting, I just don’t understand. 

 

 

1. Indianapolis Colts 12-4

You’re not going to find many people calling D’qwell Jackson the signing of the offseason, but I think he brings Indianapolis exactly what they were in need of defensively: leadership and skill at the ILB position. Jackson is a tackling machine, who quietly made his mark in Cleveland. With Robert Mathis suspended for the Colts’ first four games, there’s a void that I fully expect Jackson to fill (in terms of leadership). Meanwhile, offensively, as long as the Colts only attempt to run the ball 20% of the time, I expect them to put up lots of points, as Andrew Luck only continues his development. 

 

2. Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7

I’m not just drinking the Kool-Aid, I harvested the powder myself. I love the Jaguars defense and offensively, I think there’s enough there to win games. Would I rather see Blake Bortles starting at QB? Sure. But do I think Chad Henne makes the Jaguars worse? No. The addition of Marquise Lee at WR is one that I love and I don’t expect the Jaguars rushing attack to be too anemic. But really, that defense, behind the leadership of coach Gus Bradley, will be the difference, especially in a weak division (and conference on whole). 

 

3. Tennessee Titans 6-10

I expect them to be a surprising 2-0 before Jake Locker injures himself against the Bengals in Week 2 and it all fades like the dying embers of summer. 

 

4. Houston Texans 5-11

They chose Ryan Fitzpatrick over Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Derek Carr. This is what happens when you do that. Jadeveon Clowney might end up being a very good pass rusher. Pair him with JJ Watt and you’ll have quite the intimidating force. But if you have backup QBs throwing the ball on the other side, what good is that really going to do in today’s NFL?

 

 

1. Denver Broncos 13-3

All the Wes Welker suspensions in the world ain’t going to slow down this offense. And I think the defense is better now too, assuming that Von Miller is both healthy and un-suspended. 

 

2. Oakland Raiders 9-7

Let’s get crazy. Yes, I’m predicting at least .500 records for the Raiders and the Jaguars. And much like the Jaguars, I expect Oakland’s strength will lie with their defense. The addition of Justin Tuck and the drafting of Khalil Mack will bolster the Raiders pass defense and a hard-hitting secondary will make for a rough time of it for the pass-happy NFL. On offense, I was surprised to see the success had by Derek Carr in the preseason and also pleased that Oakland gave him the offense. If one of Maurice Jones-Drew or Darren McFadden stays healthy for the entire season (and I realize that’s unlikely with IR-DMC) Oakland should be able to manage their way, a la the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013. 

 

3. Kansas City Chiefs 7-9

Let’s talk about that Alex Smith extension in two seasons, shall we?

 

4. San Diego Chargers 5-11

Their success last season made very little sense to me and I expect them to regress to the mean in 2014. When your biggest offseason move is to sign a guy a division rival cut (Brandon Flowers) after OTAs, you’re not doing it right. 

 

 

WILD CARD ROUND

Cincinnati over New England

Miami over Jacksonville

 

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Denver over Miami

Indianapolis over Cincinnati

 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Indianapolis over Denver

 

 

 

1. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5

You could be forgiven if you think that maybe Nick Foles isn’t for real. However, I’ve long thought that the former Arizona Wildcat is the real deal. 13.5 TD/INT ratio “real deal?” Probably not. But Foles is in the right offense. Philadelphia only gets further than this very bad division if their defense can hold opponents to ~21 points per game (basically, what the Colts and Patriots defenses did in 2013). If that happens, you could have a dark horse Super Bowl contender. I’m not sure that happens. 

 

2. Dallas Cowboys 8-8

Because they’re the Cowboys and they’re going to finish the season .500 and it will be Tony Romo’s fault even though he’ll throw for 4,000 yards and the defense will allow 30 PPG. 

 

3. Washington 6-10

There’s nothing here that leaves you with a ton of confidence. The corners are going to be abused by Philadelphia and Dallas. The quarterback looked confused in preseason. And the offensive line isn’t exactly auditioning for the Pro Bowl. Oh, and they have a rookie head coach. And a racially insensitive team name.

 

4. New York Giants 3-13

You know what sounds like an immense amount of fun? The Giants drafting Jameis Winston next Spring. Oh, the fun it will be. But before we get there, we’ll have to watch Eli Manning attempt to throw 30 INTs in a season without being benched. The offensive line remains atrocious. The running game is a huge question mark. And defensively, well, there’s a good amount there, but for the Giants to be competitive, their defense will need to be as good as the early 00’s Ravens. And that’s not going to happen. 

 

 

1. Chicago Bears 11-5

We go from the worst division in the East to the best in the North. Chicago wins this division because of their incredible balance. They can win a game throwing. They can win a game running. They can win a game entirely on defense. Heck, even their special teams are good. It all comes down to Jay Cutler’s ability to manage a game when needed. The Bears were so successful with Josh McCown last season not because McCown is a great quarterback, but because he knew he didn’t need to be the star of the show. Cutler doesn’t seem to have that trait. But if he can learn, or just stop throwing dumb balls, the Bears can win the Super Bowl (foreshadowing!). 

 

2. Green Bay Packers 10-6

The defense is but a hair behind the Bears and Rodgers’ targets are nowhere near as good as Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey. A healthy-for-the-whole-season Rodgers will be essential, of course, but that’s not some groundbreaking thought. People will get really excited about the addition of Julius Peppers, but he’s 34 years old and had 7 sacks in 2013 after 11.5 the year before. In short, he’s not vintage Julius Peppers.

 

3. Minnesota Vikings 9-7

Like the Jaguars and Raiders before them, I’m driving the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon all the way to, well, close to the playoffs. I believe in Matt Cassel. And if he stinks, well, I think Teddy Bridgewater will be a Top 5 NFL QB before his career is done. This is a team with the best running back, a developing tight end with elite potential, and an improved offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball, you’re looking at a young, exciting team. Yes, they were an abomination last year. But they were a year younger last season. I love the addition of Captain Munnerlyn at corner, opposite Xavier Rhodes. Likewise, I love the drafting of Anthony Barr. And playing home games outdoors will be a big boost to this team. 

 

4. Detroit Lions 7-9

The defensive front is majestic. The rest of the defense is going to continue to be an abject disaster. Offensively, the addition of Golden Tate will be a boon, but the thing that Detroit is really missing is one other great receiver opposite Calvin Johnson.Tate is, at best, a slot guy. There’s probably some hope that rookie TE Eric Ebron can be that guy, but rookie TEs never succeed. Matthew Stafford will need to take his game beyond just 5,000 yards and a cloud of INTs for Detroit to make it out of the NFC North alive.

 

 

1. New Orleans Saints 10-6

Rivaling the NFC East, we have the flawed NFC South. New Orleans is the best team of the bunch. The defense is still not going to win them games, but the offense remains good enough (i.e. Drew Brees remains good enough) to win games on their (his) own. 

 

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8

Lovie Smith will make a big difference in Year 1. The defense is young, but improving and they have two capable, though not outstanding, quarterbacks in Josh McCown and Mike Glennon. I cannot believe I just complimented Mike Glennon. This is a ship that’s headed in the right direction. Get it? Ship!!!!!!!!! Buccaneers!!!!!!!

 

3. Atlanta Falcons 6-9-1

Like the Detroit Lions, I look at this defense and I just think, “How do they stop a good offense?” And I also look at this team and think, “How are they going to run the football?” Matt Ryan is a good QB. Julio Jones is an elite WR. But beyond that and an aging Roddy White, I don’t think last season’s dumpster fire was an aberration. 

 

4. Carolina Panthers 4-11-1

Yes, I’m predicting a tie between the Falcons and Panthers. This is a team due for some enormous regression. Last year, everything clicked. This year, the offense around Cam Newton is atrocious, with rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin the primary target (or perhaps you prefer Jerricho Cotchery?) at WR. The running game has not been updated since the Polk administration (and I don’t mean Chris). And the offensive line is a sieve. The defense was the star in 2013 and remains solid, but the loss of Captain Munnerlyn will show. 

 

 

1. Seattle Seahawks 10-6

I think there will be a good deal of hangover in Seattle. There’s also way too much talent for it to keep them out of the playoffs. The X-factor is and always will be Percy Harvin’s health. Seattle will need someone to fill the void left by Golden Tate. And yes, that’s a real thing. Defensively, the losses of Red Bryant and Brandon Browner would severely hurt another team. But Seattle will be fine. And the NFC West is not as good as we thought. 

 

2. Arizona Cardinals 9-7

The NFC’s best defense combined with an offense capable of scoring big points. What’s not to like? The one  problem: Carson Palmer is going to throw lots of INTs and there is absolutely no option behind him on the depth chart. The Cardinals are, in a lot of ways, like the poorer man’s Chicago Bears. If only Arizona’s running game was good enough to allow Palmer to game manage. That said, Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are two excellent targets who will take some Palmer mistakes and turn them into receptions. And the defense is good enough to win games on its own. 

 

3. Santa Clara 49ers 7-9

It might seem silly right now to think that the team in the East Bay will be better than the team not anywhere near the Bay, but I see a struggling Colin Kaepernick, an old Frank Gore, and a defensive secondary (outside of Eric Reid) that will get torn to shreds. Oh, and remember that whole thing in the offseason about Jim Harbaugh going to the Browns? And remember that thing with Ray McDonald being arrested for domestic abuse earlier this week? And remember the stupid thing that Chris Culliver said during Super Bowl 47 week? And remember how they lead the NFL in arrests? And remember that thing with Aldon Smith being suspended for half the season? Teams with this much turmoil rarely succeed. I don’t expect the 49ers to. 

 

4. St. Louis Rams 7-9

Ah, what might have been. St. Louis was my post-Super Bowl 48 pick to go to Super Bowl 49. The defense was secretly very good in 2013 and due to improve with age in 2014. And they were getting Sam Bradford back. And they had the number 2 pick in the draft thanks to the Robert Griffin trade. And then they went and drafted Michael Sam and I loved them even more. Not just because they drafted Michael Sam, the gay football player. But because they drafted a really good football player (more on that in a moment) who would improve an already fearsome defense. And then Sam Bradford went and got his ACL torn again and it all went to crap. The end. 

 

 

WILD CARD ROUND

Green Bay over New Orleans

Seattle over Arizona

 

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Chicago over Green Bay

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Chicago over Seattle

 

 

Chicago over Indianapolis

 

In a re-match of the 2007 Super Bowl, neither Peyton Manning nor Rex Grossman get any playing time. The Bears avenge their loss in that Super Bowl, suffocating the Colts en route to a 21-10 victory.

 

 

NFL MVP: Adrian Peterson (RB/Minnesota Vikings)

NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Derek Carr (QB/Oakland Raiders)

NFL DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Anthony Barr (LB/Minnesota Vikings)

NFL COACH OF THE YEAR: Dennis Allen (Oakland Raiders)

 

 

There is nothing I would enjoy more than Michael Sam winning the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award. This isn’t because I have some sort of vendetta against Anthony Barr or Khalil Mack, but rather because I like the underdog. 

 

Talent evaluators will look the other way if you allegedly threaten to rape a rape victim (Taylor Lewan, drafted 11th overall by the Tennessee Titans), or drive 110 MPH down a highway (Jadeveon Clowney, drafted 1st overall by the Houston Texans), or operate a vehicle whilst impaired (Bradley Roby, drafted 31st overall by the Denver Broncos). And once you’re in the NFL, “the other way” starts to feel creeped out by how often coaches and GMs look in its direction. 

 

Talent evaluators will not look the other way, however, if you are undersized or gay. Unfortunately for Michael Sam, he is undersized for his position and he is also a gay man. In Roger Goodell’s NFL, a place where you can be suspended for a year for smoking marijuana, but only two games for beating your girlfriend unconscious and dragging her body out of an elevator, there’s little room for an undersized, gay football player. 

 

I would understand Michael Sam being cut by the St. Louis Rams after barely being drafted if he wasn’t a particularly good football player. However, Sam was the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year last season. He also lead the Rams in sacks in the preseason (say what you want about preseason stats). Undersized or not, Sam has an incredible motor and a knack for getting to the football. Before his announcement that he was gay, Sam was projected as a late 2nd-late 3rd round draft pick. I personally thought he should have been a late 1st round draft pick based on the productivity I saw in college. Instead, he was taken late in the 7th round and cut in favor of undrafted rookie Ethan Westbrooks, who attended West Texas A&M, and said this about his face tattoo that reads “Laugh Now, Cry Later”:

 

 

Westbrooks might very well become a good NFL pass rusher. And young people do very stupid things like get face tattoos to motivate themselves to make the NFL because no one will hire them otherwise. Okay, that’s not true. But let’s pretend it is. Just for football reasons, I’m perplexed as to why the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, who was as productive as any edge rusher in the preseason would get cut in favor of a guy who played Division II football. Is it distractions? Because let me tell you, face tattoos are pretty distracting.

 

Michael Sam made the Dallas Cowboys practice squad and has a very good chance to play some games for Dallas this season, as their depth at defensive end is not deep. At all. Silly stories about Michael Sam’s shower habits (thanks, Josina Anderson!), and Tebow-esque media attention aside, Michael Sam is a really good football player, who happens to be undersized and happens to be gay. I’m looking forward to watching him continue to prove Roger Goodell’s NFL wrong. I’m looking forward to watching him prove Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams wrong. And I’m looking forward to watching him shatter every homophobe’s stereotype of what a gay man should “act like.”