This is the fourth installment of this endeavor and the 2017 edition will see a lot of changes. Bryce Harper is the only eligible player from the 2014 version who is a shoe-in to make this team. Missing the cut, because of the “25 by the last game of the regular season” rule are Mike Trout and Carlos Martinez.

Much can change in a few years in baseball. We sadly lost Yordano Ventura and the great Jose Fernandez within the past year. On a less tragic front, players like Rougned Odor and Manny Machado have largely regressed at the plate.

The purpose behind this project, I’ve found, is to look back a few years later and wonder things like, “Why did I think Ian Krol would be good?” and “Was there ever a point where Derek Norris was a better catcher than Sal Perez?”

And so, let’s skim this now and look back in two years.

The only real rule (besides the age requirement) is that for a player to be eligible at a position, they need to have played the majority of games in the 2017 season (at whatever level of baseball) at that position. Example: I love Xander Bogaerts and he’s played third base before. But he’s a shortstop now. So he has to compete with Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, etc.

CATCHER
Willson Contreras (Chicago Cubs): This is arguably the weakest position both in the Majors, but also in the Minors, with only 3 catchers on Keith Law’s midseason Top 50 prospect list (Insider required).

Statements about shallow talent pools aside, Contreras is a nice choice here. He has perhaps the strongest arm (and best snap throw) of anyone in the game behind the dish. At the plate, he’s got considerable pop for the position (.484 SLG as of this writing). And for a relatively inexperienced big league player (he’s played exactly 162 games), he’s not a horrific free swinger.

2017 bWAR: 2.5

FIRST BASEMAN
Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): No-brainers don’t get any more cranially vacant than this pick. The presumptive NL Rookie of the Year, at just 22 years old, has 26 home runs in just 325 plate appearances. And while you might expect a 22 year old rookie power hitter to lack plate discipline, Bellinger has an OBP of .351 (to go along with his +.600 SLG).

2017 bWAR: 2.6

SECOND BASEMAN
Jonathan Schoop (Baltimore Orioles): I never thought that Schoop would become a patient enough hitter to hold offensive value. And I definitely didn’t think he would become a potential 30+ HR guy (at 21 right now). And yet, last year, he hit 25 and this year, he’s on pace to well out-do that number. He’s still not walking as much as you’d like a hitter to, but you can’t argue with the production (.900 OPS). He barely makes the cutoff as he doesn’t turn 26 until mid-October.

2017 bWAR: 2.7

THIRD BASEMAN
Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians): The Indians called Ramirez up in 2013 as a 20 year old and he looked like the real deal in 14 plate appearances. Then 2014 happened. And 2015.

But then, Ramirez turned the corner. Maybe Cleveland promoted him too soon. Maybe the adjustments he made at the plate really made a difference. Whatever it is, Ramirez isn’t just the best 25 and under third baseman in baseball, he is the best player at the position, period. (RIP SPICEY!)

He hits for some power. He doesn’t strike out. He gets on base at a .383 clip and he steals some bases if you like that nonsense. And he’s a switch hitter who can actually hit from both sides of the plate. There’s nothing to dislike about Jose Ramirez.

2017 bWAR: 3.4

SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa (Houston Astros): Before he went down with a thumb injury, an argument (a good one even) could be made that Correa was the guy to supplant Mike Trout as the AL MVP. He’s a 22 year old with a .400 OBP, 166 OPS+, and above average defense at a position that most think he’s too big to play.

2017 bWAR: 4.0

LEFT FIELD
Michael Conforto (New York Mets): Until very recently, the Mets’ inept, bumbling fool of a manager (Terry Collins. Hi Terry!) was platooning Conforto with assorted pieces of driftwood.

Conforto, for his part, has made it impossible for his incalculably bad manager to bench him this year. The All-Star has a .400+ OBP, 18 homers, and a 153 OPS+. And sure, defensively he is not great (to be generous), but the bat more than makes up for the negative dWAR.

2017 bWAR: 2.8

CENTER FIELD
Christian Yelich (Miami Marlins): At no point is Christian Yelich going to blow you away with his numbers. He’s simply just a really good hitter. The power is likely never going to develop, but his ability to hit to all fields and his patience at the plate (.362 OBP) make him a useful player in absolutely any lineup. And he’s versatile in the field. That is to say, he’s not a great defensive centerfielder….But anyway…

2017 bWAR: 1.4

RIGHT FIELD
Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): With apologies to a certain RF in the Bronx and another one in Boston, Harper owns this spot until he’s no longer eligible.

Harper is producing at the MVP pace he set in 2015, after an injury plagued 2016 that saw him *only* hit 24 homers and produce to the tune of a 115 OPS+ as a 23 year old. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Harper is that while he swings out of his shoes more often than not, he’s drawing plenty of walks and has become a very good hitter against lefties, driving the ball to left field when needed (and hitting moon shots other times). He’s a joy to watch (all these guys are).

2017 bWAR: 4.6

DESIGNATED HITTER
Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): Remember kids, pitchers should never, ever hit. Who’d you rather see bat? Aaron Judge or Aaron Sanchez? Yes, it was fun when Bartolo Colon hit a homer. It’s less fun when he strikes out on three pitches.

On to Judge, who deserves every single bit of recognition and praise that he’s receiving.

In a 2016 cup of coffee, Judge looked overmatched, with a swiss cheese swing (lotta holes). This year, he’s transformed his entire swing into this masterpiece of quiet, soul-destroying power. His swing is so easy now, but generates the kind of power that I imagine only Josh Gibson and a non-drunk Babe Ruth were able to generate. And the numbers speak to that. .434 On-base. 180 OPS+. 32 home runs. The 25 year old rookie has the potential to hit 50 homers. And if he does that, he’s a lock to win the AL MVP.

2017 bWAR: 34 million (it’s actually 5.4)

BATTING ORDER

3B Jose Ramirez
SS Carlos Correa
RF Bryce Harper
DH Aaron Judge
1B Cody Bellinger
LF Michael Conforto
2B Jonathan Schoop
C Willson Contreras
CF Christian Yelich

BENCH PLAYERS

Gary Sanchez (Catcher/New York Yankees)
Francisco Lindor (Shortstop/Cleveland Indians)
Corey Seagar (Shortstop/Los Angeles Dodgers)
Kris Bryant (Third Baseman/Chicago Cubs)
Mookie Betts (Right Field/Boston Red Sox)

Yes, a 14 man offense defies the conventional norms of baseball, but what, are you going to leave Francisco Lindor off this team in favor of a 7th bullpen arm?

If I were to fudge around with my own rules to put the best team on the field, I’d move Conforto to CF and play either Bryant or Harper in LF (and then move Betts to RF if Harper is moving across the field). The defense would definitely suffer, but the offense would score 16 runs per game.

Having 2 shortstops might seem excessive, but Seager is big enough that third base is a perfectly appropriate position for him, as needed. And Bryant eventually profiles as a 1B anyway in my mind.

And yes, I’m well aware that this team lacks Miguel Sano, Andrew Benintendi, Manny Machado, and I’m sure many others that I’m forgetting. This just speaks to the offensive era that we live in. And this team doesn’t have a single prospect (Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers) within sniffing distance. This is, in all the years I’ve done this exercise, the deepest offensive talent pool. Which brings us to this horrific transition…

PITCHING

Whereas the offensive portion of this team is a laundry list of guys who are already the best players at their positions, the pitching portion is much more about projection. Of the top 30 starting pitchers in bWAR, only 3 are eligible for this list. And two of those pitchers likely project as relievers long-term, at least according to the baseball minds whose insights I value the most.

For the below rotation, I’m not going to include 2017 WARs. In some cases, it will do them a disservice.

STARTING PITCHERS

Noah Syndergaard (SP/New York Mets)
Michael Fulmer (SP/Detroit Tigers)
Jose Berrios (SP/Minnesota Twins)
Jameson Taillon (SP/Pittsburgh Pirates)
Lance McCullers (SP/Houston Astros)

The above list is how I would pick them. McCullers might be my favorite pitcher in baseball, but he’s still really a two-pitch pitcher. Granted, both of those pitches (4-seam and curveball) are plus-pitches. But until he can throw his changeup with more consistency, he’ll have his doubters about his long-term sustainability as a starting pitcher.

Jameson Taillon is a great story, having battled back from injuries and cancer to rejoin the Pirates rotation and really, not miss a beat. He’s probably about a year and a half behind on development because of a 2014 torn UCL. That said, he’s got an ace-like arsenal and has the highest ceiling of anyone here not named Noah Syndergaard.

Jose Berrios is an undersized starting pitcher with a multi-pitch arsenal, who struggled mightily in his debut in 2016, but has really turned the corner in 2017. His strand rate is lower than where you’d like it to be (~72%, 71st out of those pitchers with 70+IP). I’d expect his K/9 rate to increase as he develops a better feel for his arsenal. Again, Berrios’ placement here goes back to projection.

Michael Fulmer, however, isn’t about projection. He is who he is. He gets a lot of ground ball outs. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters. Hell, his ERA and FIP are identical. But he’s a good pitcher without a lot of question marks. Do I think he’s a long term ace? No. But do I think he’s a rotational fixture for the next decade? I do.

Thor is the easiest choice of the bunch, injury aside. He’s a hoss. And he’s likely someone who will become more of a pitcher than a thrower. His arsenal is real and deep and his production tells the story of who he is. He’s the ace of this staff.

RELIEF PITCHERS
Luis Severino (RHP/New York Yankees)
Corey Knebel (RHP/Milwaukee Brewers)
Roberto Osuna (RHP/Toronto Blue Jays)
Archie Bradley (RHP/Arizona Diamondbacks)
Alex Claudio (LHP/Texas Rangers)
Cam Bedrosian (RHP/Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California)

Ending with relief pitchers isn’t a good way to seal the deal. The guys you see here are all replaceable. Relief pitchers are the least reliable of any player in baseball. Today, Alex Claudio is a groundball-enducing machine. Tomorrow, who knows?

One note that I’d like to end on: Luis Severino. Severino is in the Cy Young conversation in the American League. Chris Sale is likely going to win the award, but that shouldn’t take away from how good Severino has been. However, he is one of the two aforementioned projected relief pitchers (along with McCullers). The reason why Severino is here instead of McCullers is because McCullers’ second pitch (his curveball, which he actually uses more than his fastball) is an objectively better pitch than Severino’s slider. Each use their changeup about 10% of the time, just for fun. Ultimately, I’d rather have a fastball/slider guy pitching long-relief out of the bullpen than a fastball/curveball guy.

Two fun notes: Robbie Ray missed out on this list by one day. Cam Bedrosian made it by one day.

Think I got something wrong? Hate me in general? Tweet me @jason_botelho or comment below. Thanks as always for reading.