This truly was the longest winter. Putting aside the frigid temperatures across the country and the large quantities of snow falling in the northeast and the mere existence of it in places like northern Florida, this winter dragged. From a strictly baseball standpoint, long periods of time elapsed between free agent signings.

Perhaps as a result of front offices being made up of savvy, economist-types (which is mostly a good thing), almost every team seemed to realize that, for many, many years, they had been paying players for past production. Jake Arrieta, the best free agent starting pitcher on the market, had to wait until the middle of Spring Training to receive a contract offer that he approved of. That contract, for a recent Cy Young award winner, was, essentially, a front-loaded 3 year contract (Philadelphia has two club options at $20 million each). It’s certainly easy to cherry-pick bad contracts, so let’s do that. Two years ago, the offseason following Arrieta’s Cy Young win, Mike Leake signed a 5 year deal worth $80 million. Another way to look at that is that Mike Leake received $5 million more in guaranteed money than Jake Arrieta. What other starting pitchers received more guaranteed money in that cycle (just 2 years ago!) than Jake from Not State Farm did this year? Funny you should ask:

Wei-Yin Chen
Jeff Samardzija
Jordan Zimmermann
Johnny Cueto
Zack Greinke
David Price

I count, at best, 2 guys there who definitely should have gotten paid more than Arrieta, based on expected future production at the time.

And Jake was not alone. Greg Holland saves a lot of baseball games. You can decide how important that sentence is to you. Still, last year he saved 41 games for the Colorado Rockies. He made the All-Star team. And he’s unemployed.

In years past, it is not an exaggeration to say that any one of 8 playoff-contending teams would have thrown 3 years in Greg Holland’s direction. Remember that 2015-16 offseason? Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, and Tony Sipp all received 3 year guaranteed contracts. None of those pitchers was coming off a season close to Holland’s 2017 season.

In that 2016 offseason, again, just 2 years ago, 8 players received contracts exceeding $80 million in total value. In this offseason, only 4 players received a contract with a total amount greater than $80 million (Eric Hosmer, Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton). Ironically, Justin Upton is on both lists (his 2016 contract had an “opt-out” clause).

The answer to the question, “Why this dramatic shift?” has little to do with the quality of the free agent class. No matter who the top free agents are, teams, in the past, were always more than willing to throw big money at bad ideas. Albert Pujols has been relegated to full-time DH on account of being old and very bad. You see, every single person ages and when you age, your skills diminish. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Anaheim California Angels, they didn’t take this into account when they gave Albert Pujols a 10 year contract in 2012 to congratulate him for all that he had previously accomplished with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Angels will be paying Pujols roughly $116 million over the next four seasons. Last year, Pujols was one of the absolute worst full-time players in Major League Baseball, posting an embarrassing .672 OPS and a sub-1.00 bWAR. In fact, Pujols hasn’t had an OPS of .800 or above since 2012, ironically when he was a St. Louis Cardinal.

“This is good news for me then!” you say, because you’ve been programmed to support your benevolent business overlords. “With teams spending their money more wisely, manipulating the service time of young superstars to gain an extra year of cheap club-control, I will pay less for tickets and concessions! Huzzah.”

Please, I implore you, let me know when your favorite team’s millionaire or billionaire owner decides that he has enough money and would like to give you a break on your night out to the old ballyard.

Rooting for the business interests of baseball will get you nowhere. You will not save money on your tickets. Your team will not “save” their money they didn’t spend in 2017-18 to spend big on a free agent like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. If you are a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins (ha), etc. your team will not be entering the Bryce Sweepstakes because they had the impulse control to not throw a four year deal at Greg Holland. The Ronald Acunas and Kris Bryants of the world will continue to be sent to AAA clubs for three weeks at the expense of the immediate on-field success of their team(s) to save some money 6 years down the road. The owner(s) of your favorite team will continue to use their teams as a money-making venture, because, and this may come as a shock, that’s what they are. While you think you’re rooting for a logo and a uniform, you’re really rooting for a rich man’s business venture. It’s like standing outside of a Target, chanting “We Will Rock You.” Poll all 30 ownership groups anonymously and ask a simple question: “Would you rather win a World Series and lose $50 million or miss the playoffs and turn a $50 million profit?” In short, start rooting for the laborers and not for the logos. In baseball, in the classroom, at construction sites. Everywhere.
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And with that…..let’s preview the 2018 season.

AL EAST

Ah, nostalgia. Remember when the AL East was a two-horse race to the top and a three mule race to the bottom? Well, welcome back to the turn of the century! John Bolton’s got a government job again and the Red Sox and Yankees are battling it out for a division crown, while the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rays are in varying stages of “trying to stay afloat.”

The division crown should go to the Yankees who have the more reliable bullpen and a deeper pool of starting pitchers. Both offenses should score a lot of runs. The Yankees’ offense is probably a hair better, but I truly don’t think that’s where the difference lies. Both teams should win between 95-100 games, given that they’ll play more than 1/3 of their schedule against Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore.

1. New York Yankees 99-63
2. Boston Red Sox 94-68
3. Baltimore Orioles 80-82
4. Toronto Blue Jays 74-88
5. Tampa Bay Rays 62-100

AL CENTRAL

No team made more free agency splashes, it seems, than the Minnesota Twins, in that they actually got into the pool, signing Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed, while also trading for Jake Odorizzi.

Much like the AL East, this is 2-team race between Minnesota and Cleveland. The White Sox, Tigers, and Royals just do not have the pieces to compete this year. Kansas City, frankly, doesn’t have the pieces to compete any time soon.

I think Minnesota closed the gap on Cleveland a bit, but they still lack the starting pitching to get the job done as consistently as the Indians will with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. And that doesn’t even get into the 8th and 9th innings when Cleveland has Andrew Miller and Cody Allen and the Twins offer up the aforementioned Reed and Rodney.

1. Cleveland Indians 94-68
2. Minnesota Twins 89-73
3. Detroit Tigers 70-92
4. Chicago White Sox 65-97
5. Kansas City Royals 64-98

AL WEST

In trading for Gerrit Cole, the Astros sacrificed their future a bit to get better today. Keep in mind, this is still an organization with Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker at the top of their minor league rankings, so they’re not bleeding young talent by any stretch. No team in baseball is better constructed for 2018 playoff success than the Astros. The questions will likely lie with the bullpen, but this is a team with the resources to go out in July and improve their bullpen through trades.

Elsewhere in the battle for the second AL Wild Card spot…

Unlike the other two divisions, each team in the AL West has a legitimate chance to finish second and possibly get a Wild Card berth. Oakland has a vastly improved offense, but may struggle to keep other teams off the board. A similar story resides in Orange County, where the Angels brought back Justin Upton, brought in Ian Kinsler, and signed potential two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, but lack the starting pitching depth or bullpen to make anyone comfortable anointing them a playoff team. Seattle is probably the most balanced of the teams in this division. No aspect of the M’s will wow you, but there are no glaring red flags, save for depth in the rotation after Mike Leake. And Texas is a total wild card. A patchwork rotation. A lineup of mostly low-OBP mashers. A bullpen of taped-together balsa wood. I get the feeling Texas will either finish second or last. And I tend to think it’s the latter.

1. Houston Astros 103-59
2. Seattle Mariners 86-76
3. Oakland Athletics 82-82
4. Anaheim Angels 79-83
5. Texas Rangers 75-87

AL Playoffs

Boston over Minnesota in the wild card game because Chris Sale v. Minnesota-By-Committee is a battle Sale wins every time.

ALDS: Houston over Boston in 4, New York over Cleveland in 5

ALCS: Houston over New York in 5

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2017 ended frustratingly for the Washington Nationals. This is a fairly common refrain. Simply plug in a different year and the result remains both the same and true.

2018 will likely end in a similar fashion. The odds just sort of work out that way. For teams like the White Sox, your goal in 2018 is to keep your excellent young starting pitchers (Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Michael Kopech, Dylan Covey, Alec Hansen, and Dane Dunning) healthy. That’s really it. You’d love for as many of those pitchers as possible to be healthy going into 2019 when the goal should be to sneak into the playoffs riding the arms of 4 or 5 electric mid-20s pitchers.

For a team like the Washington Nationals, 2019 doesn’t really matter. At the end of the 2018 season, franchise cornerstone Bryce Harper will be an unrestricted free agent. Lose Harper and you’re losing about 5-7 wins above replacement. You’re also losing a major attraction and a marketable young star. And you’re doing it at a time when you’ve bled organizational depth (past Victor Robles and Juan Soto) trying to put a World Series winner onto the field.

There will be some/many Washington Nationals “fans” who will expect Harper to take a hometown discount. Say the Nationals lose in the NLDS this season. Those “fans” will take nothing less than Bryce Harper accepting a one year deal to go for it one more time. And when he doesn’t take that one year deal, and instead signs a 7 year deal with ___________ (fill in the blank…it doesn’t matter), he’ll get booed when he comes back to DC. And that sucks.

The repeated failings of the Washington Nationals in the postseason (or rampant regular season success depending on through which prism you choose to view all of this), do not fall solely on the shoulders of Bryce Harper, just as it didn’t fall on the shoulders of Drew Storen or Jordan Zimmermann or whomever was the scapegoat in that Dodgers series (honestly, I forget). Everyone gets blame. Mike Rizzo gets blame. Davey Johnson, Matt Williams, and Dusty Baker get blame. And yes, each player gets a varying degree of blame.

Knowing that 2018 is essentially a “now or never” season (I prefer “shit or get off the pot” season), the Nationals remained largely inert during the winter months. There was no success in improving the starting pitching from 2017. There was no success in improving the bullpen (in fact, I think the bullpen as constructed today is slightly worse than the one from last October). And there was no success in improving an already very good offense, albeit not perfect and not the best in the National League. The Washington Nationals will take the field in Cincinnati, Ohio on Thursday (Friday…stupid rain) looking very similar to how they looked on October 12, 2017. Gone will be Jayson Werth. Healthy will be Adam Eaton. But that’s it. In theory, Gio Gonzalez will still start a potential Game 3 in the playoffs. Brandon Kintzler is still the 7th inning guy. Enny Romero is the best left handed option out of the pen (non-Sean Doolittle division). There’s a different manager in the dugout, and that should make the Nationals situationally better. But really, that’s window dressing. It’s the most important season in franchise history. And if that history is an indicator of what’s to come, well, set your radars to “disappointed.”

THE REST OF THE NL EAST

I sincerely think that the Philadelphia Phillies can make a run at the playoffs this year. I also think that no other team, even the White Sox, is poised to make the jump from bad to very good as quickly as Philadelphia. I loved the Jake Arrieta signing from a Philadelphia Phillies business perspective, because given the talent already on the field in South Philly and the talent scattered throughout their minor league system (but especially at High-A Clearwater), 2020 should be the year that Philadelphia contends for a World Series.

As for this year, there’s something to be excited about at nearly every turn for the Phillies. Though they overpaid for Carlos Santana, adding a high-OBP, top of the order hitter will only help the development of Rhys Hoskins. Elsewhere, the Phillies were not overly cautious with rookie Scott Kingrey, signing him to a long-term extension and putting him on the Opening Day roster. That should pay immediate dividends and give the new manager some flexibility in how he constructs his lineup day-to-day.

I’m excited to see what Gabe Kapler can do as the most advanced metrics-inclined manager we’ve seen in the modern game. If he succeeds, it will change dugouts across the sport. And if he fails, well, it’ll give the baseball dinosaurs one last opportunity to crow about the importance of moving runners and “the little things.”

Wrapping up this overlong capsule of the NL East, don’t expect the Atlanta Braves to contend in 2018, but look forward to the arrival of Ronald Acuna Jr. in mid-April and, further down the road, look forward to their battling with the Phillies for baseball supremacy in 2020.

The Mets and Marlins are also baseball teams. Though, in the case of the Marlins, the jury remains in deliberation.

1. Washington Nationals 91-71
2. Philadelphia Phillies 85-77
3. New York Mets 79-83
4. Atlanta Barves 78-84
5. Miami Marlins 44-118

NL CENTRAL

The Chicago Cubs are going to win this division. The amount of depth that the Cubs possess cannot be matched by any other team here. That goes for starting pitching. That goes for the batting order. It probably even goes for bullpen depth, though that’s more a result of no one in this division having a particularly strong and deep bullpen.

Chicago’s lineup is the best in the National League and I’d argue the best in baseball, 1-8. And there’s flexibility there. You have super-sub Ben Zobrist who can pinch hit and play at 6 different positions. Then there’s Albert Almora Jr. who would be a starter on nearly every other team in the Majors. On this team, he’s playing behind Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ in most situations, though he will fill in nicely for the former against left-handed starting pitchers. And at the corners, you’ve got the sport’s most dangerous 1-2 punch in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. And they signed Yu Darvish this offseason, as well as Tyler Chatwood, who I expect to be a big upgrade for them in the number 5 spot.

Up I-94, the Milwaukee Brewers made a number of changes, seemingly in the span of a few hours in January. Ryan Braun moves to first base to make room for Christian Yelich, acquired via trade from the AAA Miami Marlins. Meanwhile, Lorenzo Cain joined on a fairly baffling 5 year deal. The problem for Milwaukee is a pretty glaring one though and that’s a real lack of starting pitchers. Chase Anderson and Zach Davies are a perfectly fine set of Major League starting pitchers. They are not Yu Darvish and Jon Lester. They’re not Clayton Kershaw and literally any other living person. And yet, Anderson and Davies will need to perform beyond expectation to keep this rotation (rounded out by Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, and an injured Jimmy Nelson) afloat.

Also cashing in on the Miami Marlins being a living embarrassment were the St. Louis Cardinals, who added Marcell Ozuna, but still have a concerning lack of power in their lineup and, like Milwaukee, some real question marks in the rotation.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have no desire to contend this year, so we won’t talk about them. Likewise, their fans should not go to their games.

1. Chicago Cubs 99-63
2. St. Louis Cardinals 88-74
3. Milwaukee Brewers 84-78
4. Pittsburgh Pirates 69-93
5. Cincinnati Reds 65-97

NL WEST

Though their field flooded with human excrement on Tuesday night, everything else seems to be going mostly fine for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp is back and looks more like a baseball player and less like the assistant manager at an Arby’s. Yasiel Puig also looks like a fit human. Clayton Kershaw is still a Dodger, and other than a broken bone to Justin Turner’s hand, everyone else is healthy following a season that took LA within 27 outs of a World Series. This is LA’s division to run away with. Can anyone catch them?

Maybe.

But probably not.

The Diamondbacks are intriguing because they have five good starting pitchers. The Rockies are intriguing because they built a super bullpen and their hitters still get to hit baseballs in Denver 81 days per year. San Francisco is not terribly intriguing, though they added Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria to a team that scored roughly 45 total runs last season, so they can only be a help. And the San Diego Padres are currently slated to play the 2018 Major League season.

The fatal flaw for each is pretty obvious. Arizona is light-hitting, outside of Paul Goldschmidt. Take away JD Martinez’s mid-season acquisition and they were, statistically, a below average Major League team at the plate in 2017. They’re a team that will always hit a lot of doubles and triples because their ballpark is a comical place. But when it comes to home run production, without Martinez, they would have been a few notches below the Kansas City Royals last year. Note: JD Martinez was replaced in right field by Jarrod Dyson who has 12 home runs in his 1900+ career plate appearances.

Colorado’s fatal flaw is the only one that can’t be immediately fixed. What makes them so intriguing is also what makes them so scary to bet on. The Rockies have good young pitchers in Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland, and Tyler Anderson. The issue is that it’s hard to limit runs in the thin air of Denver, CO, as well as the entire Pacific Coast League. Super Bullpen or not.

A quick note on the Padres who I made fun of earlier. They will be bad. They will be very bad. They threw a lot of money at a first baseman who is not an all-world player by any metric. Eric Hosmer struggled to hit for power in Kansas City. He will surely struggle to hit for power in San Diego. That said, the Padres have a very exciting farm system and if AJ Preller has an ounce of impulse control in the next two years, he’ll retain a lot of that talent and be able to build a fun, young, exciting team, centered around future household names Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias, and MacKenzie Gore. But for now, get your house familiar with Freddy Galvis, Chase Headley 2.0, and Matt Szczur.

Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
Colorado Rockies 85-77
Arizona Diamondbacks 82-82
San Francisco Giants 77-85
San Diego Padres 65-97

NL Playoffs

Philadelphia Phillies beat Colorado Rockies in one-game playoff to determine 2nd NL Wild Card.

Philadelphia Phillies beat St. Louis Cardinals in actual Wild Card game

NLDS: Chicago over Philadelphia in 3, Washington over Los Angeles in 5

NLCS: Chicago over Washington in 6

WORLD SERIES

Houston over Chicago in 6.

Sure, I could have picked something cute like the Twins over the Phillies, but Chicago and Houston are the two best teams in baseball right now, today, March 28. Trades can and will happen in June, July, and August. So all of this is just fun and games.

I give Houston the edge because of their rotation. I’ve been guilty of falling in love with deep starting rotations before (Philadelphia’s Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt one comes to mind), but the thing with Houston is that their offense is probably better than their rotation. And their rotation is baseball’s best. The only thing that derails Houston is a long-term injury to Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve. Outside of that, I see baseball’s first repeat World Series champion in 18 years.

AWARDS

AL Rookie of the Year: Gleyber Torres (IF/New York Yankees)
NL Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF/Atlanta Braves)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox)
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)

AL MVP: Carlos Correa (SS/Houston Astros)
NL MVP: Jason Heyward (OF/Chicago Cubs)

….I kid!

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (OF/Washington Nationals)

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And for what it’s worth, I think Bryce will sign with the Cubs next offseason. But in the interim, I’ll enjoy being able to watch him in DC for as long as either of us are in this swamp.