I wrote my 2018 season preview with a somewhat lengthy intro discussing the labor practices employed during that offseason by MLB clubs. Those practices consisted of a sort of free agency by attrition. “Alarm the players by withholding offers until they’re desperate to play baseball and will do it for a 50% discount.”
Those trends were not only employed during this most recent offseason, they were intensified. At the start of Spring Training, four of the top five or six free agents were unsigned. Today, as I write this, two of those players (Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel) stunningly remain free agents, available to any club who wants to add the 2015 Cy Young award winner and/or Craig Kimbrel. Keuchel’s free agency is the one that I find more troublesome because it dovetails into the bigger, murkier problem that I see with Major League Baseball…
The nerds!
Now, I’m a nerd, in both the baseball and real sense (I like professional wrestling more than I like those weird running races where everybody gets dirty for some reason but seem like something cool people do). I want to stick exclusively here though to the baseball side. “Nerd” has become a pejorative used by old baseball players, some young baseball players, many fans on social media, many fans who don’t know what social media is, and various people whose job it is to write and talk about baseball. They use “nerd” to describe Ivy League-educated front office executives who have transformed the way that the business of baseball is conducted. I alluded to this a little last year, but the “Moneyball” concept popularized by the Oakland Athletics in the early 2000s and thrown into the public zeitgeist by a terrible, awful movie, is now the norm in baseball. It might be a complex situation, but it sure as hell doesn’t seem like one to me. The MLB Players Association repeatedly got their asses kicked in collective bargaining discussions by the owners and now find themselves in a situation where the 30 owners, whose job it is in this capitalist nightmare to turn the largest profit for their own benefit, can easily make record profits by paying Cambodian riel to young players for upwards of six seasons before those players’ agents can truly negotiate to receive their clients’ actual monetary value.
The so-called nerds have also shaped the way rosters are built. And that may be a reason why a guy like Keuchel remains unemployed. The long-revered “innings eater” has been all-but-proven to have been a bad idea. Baseball of 20 and even 10 years ago is littered with guys who had almost decade-long careers despite producing well-below average results. On a recent trip down the baseballreference.com hole, I stumbled upon James Baldwin’s page. Baldwin was a Major League starting pitcher for seven years of an utterly unremarkable 11 year career. He pitched at least 150 innings in each of those seven seasons. Only once was he above league average. Every fifth day, James Baldwin would go out there with a 5.00 ERA, strike out hardly anybody, pitch over five innings and somehow stay employed. Think he’s an outlier? Take a look at the pages for Baseball-Reference’s “similar players.” Ramon Ortiz, Adam Eaton, Rodrigo Lopez, Kyle Kendrick, Colby Lewis, Joey Hamilton, and on and on and on.
Now, Dallas Keuchel is not the same pitcher as those gentlemen. He is much better and is a recent Cy Young winner. He is an extreme groundball pitcher with a career ERA of 3.66 and an ERA+ of 108. He is, by definition, an above-average pitcher. But he is a dinosaur. Keuchel’s fastball is “on” when it’s 90 mph and as a groundball pitcher , he’s going to give up contact. Contact, in baseball 2019 is not a good thing. Which brings me to the whole crux of this long diatribe:
I don’t think I like baseball as much as I used to and I think that’s my fault. Now, understand, I have absolutely no influence on anyone. I barely have influence on myself. But I feel a little guilty that the baseball I spent years demanding has arrived and I think it’s making the game less enjoyable to watch. Home runs are a good thing offensively. The goal of baseball is to score more runs. Strikeouts are good for pitchers. The goal of baseball is to make the team get more outs and the most effective way to do that is to prevent them from even hitting the ball. It took baseball a long time to reach these universal conclusions, somehow. I’m personally torn between 1.) knowing that the science says this is the best way to build baseball teams for on-field success and 2.) standing on the street corner with a sign that reads “Bring Back the Dodo.” Or perhaps, “Bring Back James Baldwin. No. Not That One. The Pitcher. But Yes Also The Author.”
Brief team capsules below (scroll to the bottom for predicted division standings, playoffs, and awards stuff if you’d like):
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Current Status: Losing to rebuild. The prospects aren’t quite there yet for a full rebuild, so they need to be real bad first.
Biggest Offseason Move: Trading franchise cornerstone Paul Goldschmidt for St. Louis’ former top prospects.
Most Exciting Player: Archie Bradley. An important note here is that if a team’s most exciting player is a relief pitcher, that team isn’t going to have a very good 2019.
Are They Worth Watching?: No, they are not.
ATLANTA BRAVES
Current Status: Light contention. They won their division last year but did very little in free agency to build off of that.
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Josh Donaldson to a one-year contract, where they’ll pay him a lot of money, knowing that if he bounces back, he’s going to sign somewhere else next offseason, and if he doesn’t bounce back, they just spent $23 million on a one-year third base stopgap while they wait for prospect Austin Riley to be ready.
Most Exciting Player: Ronald Acuña Jr. is so exciting at the plate. He’s the Patrick Mahomes of baseball. I don’t watch a lot of football so I’m going with that.
Are They Worth Watching?: They are.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Current Status: Rigor mortis is setting in.
Biggest Offseason Move: Accepting the reality that we are all mortal.
Most Exciting Player: They have some really good minor league players who I think are good who the Orioles will inevitably ruin.
Are They Worth Watching?: Are you a sadist?
BOSTON RED SOX
Current Status: Trying to keep New England sports fans happy by ending their long, championship-less curse.
Biggest Offseason Move: Nothing. The Red Sox did nothing. They brought Steve Pearce back on an insignificant contract and they signed Nathan Eovaldi to a “thank you for your services” contract that WEEI callers will be complaining about by August.
Most Exciting Player: As long as he’s a player on this team, the answer will be Mookie Betts.
Are They Worth Watching?: Yes, if you’re able to find any of their games on ESPN or MLB Network.
CHICAGO CUBS
Current Status: Hanging on to 2016 like Al Bundy talking about his 4 TDs at Polk High.
Biggest Offseason Move: Somehow not sending human monster Addison Russell away to baseball purgatory. Other than that, the Cubs did not make anything resembling a roster upgrade.
Most Exciting Player: Javy Baez. If he could actually develop into a slightly more selective hitter, he’d be an MVP candidate. That said, on an otherwise boring, but good, Cubs team, he’s lightning.
Are They Worth Watching?: Well, I did just call them boring. But yes. They play in a really competitive division and this seems like it could be the end of this run if they don’t make a deep playoff push.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Current Status: Wrapping Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez in bubble wrap.
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing anybody who ever talked to Manny Machado in the saddest effort to get him to sign there.
Most Exciting Player: Eloy Jimenez. Sure, he’s never played in a Major League game, but as a person who spent an inordinate amount of his time watching Jimenez in the minors, let me tell you, his power is prodigious.
Are They Worth Watching?: Worth the occasional pop-in to check on Jimenez and eventually when they call up top pitching prospect Dylan Cease. 2020 and the return of Michael Kopech should see a real improvement in the White Sox’s outlook.
CINCINNATI REDS
Current Status: I think they’re trying to win the NL Central.
Biggest Offseason Move: The most fascinating below-the-radar story heading into this season is how Yasiel Puig will transition from stardom in LA to playing baseball in southwestern Ohio. The Reds decided to bring Puig, Alex Wood, and Matt Kemp in from LA. They took a chance on Sonny Gray. And they traded for Tanner Roark. They were active. I didn’t understand their activity, but they were certainly active.
Most Exciting Player: I adore Joey Votto, but I also used the word “exciting,” so let’s go with Puig with a nod to the under appreciated Jesse Winker.
Are They Worth Watching?: Probably not.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Current Status: Content with winning the AL Central.
Biggest Offseason Move: Not trading Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.
Most Exciting Player: Jose Ramirez.
Are They Worth Watching?: Sure.
COLORADO ROCKIES
Current Status: Good.
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Daniel Murphy to play 1B feels like a stroke of genius, assuming Murphy still has something (besides his unsavory views on homosexuality) in the tank.
Most Exciting Player: Nolan Arenado. The Rockies locked up their massively talented 3B to a long-term deal. Arenado is a gem at the hot corner who will also hit close to 40 homers at the plate.
Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely. They’ll be in a really fun race with the Padres and Dodgers.
DETROIT TIGERS
Current Status: Bad baseball team.
Biggest Offseason Move: THEY SIGNED JORDY MERCER!!!!
Most Exciting Player: Not Jordy Mercer. This is a dreadfully boring baseball team. But Josh Harrison seems cool so let’s give him this.
Are They Worth Watching?: Are you having trouble sleeping?
HOUSTON ASTROS
Current Status: Being great.
Biggest Offseason Move: The Astros made a really high-upside, low-risk signing bringing Michael Brantley on board. They also re-signed Alex Bregman long-term. And I have a feeling they’ll be the team to sign Keuchel.
Most Exciting Player: There are exciting players everywhere here, including just below the Major League level with top prospect Forrest Whitley. For me though, it’s George Springer. He’s not the best player on this team, but he’s very much the leadoff hitter for this generation of baseball and a guy who is fun to watch play.
Are They Worth Watching?: Yes. Every night.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Current Status: Things are very much back to normal in Kansas City.
Biggest Offseason Move: This is the Royals. They don’t do “big offseason moves.”
Most Exciting Player: Whit Merrifield is a really good baseball player even if it sounds like I just made his name up.
Are They Worth Watching?: They are not.
LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA ANGELS OF ANAHEIM CALIFORNIA ANGELS
Current Status: Mired in mediocrity.
Biggest Offseason Move: Convincing one of the greatest players to ever play baseball that, yes, he does want to play baseball in the shadow of the 5 freeway for the rest of his career.
Most Exciting Player: Mike Trout.
Are They Worth Watching?: Mike Trout is very much worth watching on a regular basis. Mike Trout plays for this team. Ergo, yes, they are worth watching.
NOTE: I will never not stop making fun of this team being the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Imagine the New York Yankees of Albany or the Chicago White Sox of Naperville.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS (OF LOS ANGELES)
Current Status: Trying not to lose in the World Series for a third consecutive season.
Biggest Offseason Move: Trading Puig and signing AJ Pollock. No word on if the Pollock signing includes any sort of lemon law or return policy.
Most Exciting Player: Walker Buehler. He’s unhittable and a solid Cy Young bet.
Are They Worth Watching?: Yes.
MIAMI MARLINS
Current Status: Marlining.
Biggest Offseason Move: They didn’t trade Christian Yelich this offseason.
Most Exciting Player: null
Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely never.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Current Status: World Series or bust.
Biggest Offseason Move: Bringing in Yasmani Grandal and, one would assume, some large net to place behind him while he’s catching.
Most Exciting Player: Yelich, Josh Hader, Jesus Aguilar…any of those. I also have a real thing for Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff whose philosophy as starting pitchers appears to be “strike out everybody.”
Are They Worth Watching?: 100%
MINNESOTA TWINS
Current Status: Creeping quietly into Cleveland Indians bedroom while they’re sleeping.
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Nelson Cruz. He hits dingers. A lot of dingers. That’s been missing from Minnesota for a while now.
Most Exciting Player: Byron Buxton. I may be the last person driving the bandwagon, which at this point resembles a unicycle more than a wagon. He’s still got five tools in his pocket. There are not many players in baseball like him. If he puts it together, he can challenge Trout for “best in the game.” Yes, I’m kind of delusional.
Are They Worth Watching?: They’re medium worth it. Very worth it when Jose Berrios is pitching.
NEW YORK METS
Current Status: Continuing to act like a small-market team despite playing in, you know, New York City.
Biggest Offseason Move: I guess it’s bringing Robinson Cano aboard. I don’t get the trade.
Most Exciting Player: deGrom or Syndergaard. deGrom is consistently dominant. Syndergaard can be even more dominant than deGrom at times. I’ll take deGrom.
Are They Worth Watching?: They are AND they have the best in-booth TV announcers in baseball in my opinion.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Current Status: Contending for a World Series while not spending much money in free agency.
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Troy Tulowitzki (calm down it’s the year 2019).
Most Exciting Player: Aaron Judge because he’s big and hits big home runs.
Are They Worth Watching?: See Red Sox, Boston.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Current Status: Really hoping that 2018 was not a fluke.
Biggest Offseason Move: See Royals, Kansas City.
Most Exciting Player: Matt Chapman, with apologies to Khris Davis who hits more home runs than anyone. Chapman may be the AL’s answer to Nolan Arenado.
Are They Worth Watching?: Only slightly more watchable than the Twins, which sounds more insulting than I meant it to.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Current Status: Trying to win a World Series or firing Gabe Kapler. Or maybe both???
Biggest Offseason Move: Trading for catcher JT Realmuto. That’s the only thing the Phillies did this offseason. Yep. That’s it.
Most Exciting Player: Definitely not Bryce Harper.
Are They Worth Watching?: Absolutely. God, they’re so watchable.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Current Status: Quo
Biggest Offseason Move: See Royals, Kansas City or Athletics, Oakland.
Most Exciting Player: Chris Archer. I’ve always been a big fan. He’s an exciting guy to watch pitch because he’s passionate. Baseball needs more Chris Archers.
Are They Worth Watching?: Firmly in the medium tier of teams that I’ll only watch if they’re playing the Nats or they’re the only team with an afternoon game on a Wednesday.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Current Status: Riding high. Soaking it all in. Making sure the mellow doesn’t harsh.
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Manny Machado to be the franchise cornerstone for the next decade seems like a good place to start.
Most Exciting Player: Fernando Tatis Jr. Much like Eloy Jimenez, Tatis Jr. has not played a game in the Majors. Another thing that Tatis Jr. has in common with Eloy Jimenez is that he was once in the White Sox organization but then they traded him for James Shields. It’s sad to be a Chicago White Sox fan. Tatis Jr. is one of those hitters for whom the sound of bat to ball makes a different, special kind of noise. He’s going to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.
Are They Worth Watching?: For the first time in a very, very long time, yes. Offensively, they’re a really compelling team. Starting pitching is the wild card. [BAD PUN ALERT] And I think the Padres might be a Wild Card too.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Current Status: Wishing this was an even year and also five years ago.
Biggest Offseason Move: With an outfield of Mac Williamson, Steve Duggar, and Austin Slater, why would you even need to make an offseason move?
Most Exciting Player: Madison Bumgarner if only to see how many Latino baseball players he’ll yell at.
Are They Worth Watching?: You’ll be able to find the inevitable video of Bumgarner yelling at Acuña Jr. to play the game the right way. So, no. Not worth watching.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Current Status: Aiming for .500.
Biggest Offseason Move: Trading Robinson Cano. They won’t reap the rewards of that move for a few years, but this feels like a nice little reset for the M’s.
Most Exciting Player: Dee Gordon is a terrific person by all accounts and you should read this admittedly very sad profile of his young life.
Are They Worth Watching?: They already had their moment in the spotlight with their Japan games against the Athletics. Give someone else a turn.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Current Status: Remaining just the most classiest organization in all of baseball with the bestest fans there ever were.
Biggest Offseason Move: Acquiring Paul Goldschmidt and giving Arizona very little value for him.
Most Exciting Player: Alex Reyes. He’s the team’s future ace and he’ll likely be pitching out of the bullpen in his first full season back from Tommy John.
Are They Worth Watching?: You have no choice in this matter. There will always be a Cardinals game on television.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Current Status: Doing that whole 3-man rotation thing again.
Biggest Offseason Move: Signing Charlie Morton to be one of those three men.
Most Exciting Player: It’s probably Blake Snell, but I can’t tell you why he’s exciting.
Are They Worth Watching?: No but they’ll probably win 90 games somehow.
TEXAS RANGERS
Current Status: What’s it called when you go into an MLB season with Mike Minor as your ace?
Biggest Offseason Move: Asdrubal Cabrera is Adrian Beltre’s replacement.
Most Exciting Player: 40 HR/200 K man Joey Gallo. Feel the excitement!
Are They Worth Watching?: Sure if you don’t value your time.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Current Status: Staring at a clock, waiting to call up Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Biggest Offseason Move: The answer is probably Freddy Galvis and that’s a bad answer.
Most Exciting Player: Marcus Stroman for the time being.
Are They Worth Watching?: You will watch them on the day when Vladito makes his Major League debut. There will be no time before that where you should feel compelled to watch them.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Current Status: Getting over a bad breakup.
Biggest Offseason Move: Moving on from their ex.
Most Exciting Player: Juan Soto. We all kind of suck societally right now and that suckiness causes us to not appreciate things that are rare and beautiful, like a teenager coming up from essentially A ball and hitting 22 HR with an OBP over .400 over an MLB season. I saw Juan Soto play in Hagerstown, Maryland in early April of last season. By May 15, he was a Major Leaguer.
Are They Worth Watching?: Yes. Overlay their radio broadcast so that you don’t get baseball brain damage from listening to FP Santangelo on the TV broadcast.
THE PREDICTIONS
AL East
- New York
- Boston-wc
- Tampa Bay
- Toronto
- Baltimore
AL Central
- Minnesota
- Cleveland-wc
- Chicago
- Kansas City
- Detroit
AL West
- Houston
- Seattle
- Los Angeles of Anaheim California
- Oakland
- Texas
NL East
- Washington
- Philadelphia-wc
- New York
- Atlanta
- Miami
NL Central
- Chicago
- Milwaukee-wc
- St. Louis
- Cincinnati
- Pittsburgh
NL West
- Los Angeles
- Colorado
- San Diego
- Arizona
- San Francisco
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Game: Boston over Cleveland
Division Series: Houston over Boston, New York over Minnesota
Championship Series: Houston over New York
NL Playoffs:
Wild Card Game: Milwaukee over Philadelphia
Division Series: Washington over Los Angeles, Milwaukee over Chicago
Championship Series: Milwaukee over Washington
World Series: Houston over Milwaukee
Awards Predictions That Will Be Wrong, Probably
AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
AL Rookie of the Year: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
NL MVP: Juan Soto
NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler
NL Rookie of the Year: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Mid-Atlantic Bias 