Hello! It’s me, Lapsed NFL Fan. I’m just checking in to see how everybody is doing. Oh, and I wrote this excruciatingly long blog post that nobody will read. How has everybody been?

Six years have passed since my most recent installment of Quarterback Madness. In the previous 4 iterations, Aaron Rodgers came away the “fairest quarterback of them all.” 

A refresher: Every team has a starting quarterback. For some teams, this is only in the technical sense. For others, they have a franchise quarterback that they never want to replace. Either way, every team has to put some pulse under center (Motion to change this terminology to “six yards behind center”). The purpose of this exercise is to determine who I think is the ultimate NFL franchise quarterback right now. Put another way, if all of the quarterbacks were thrown into a pot and I was the lucky person who got first dibs on one to build my franchise around starting today, who would I scoop out of that pot. 

For a few of these teams, I’m guessing who they view as their “franchise quarterback” right now. Denver is the best example. They drafted Drew Lock in the 2nd round of the 2019 NFL draft, though he hasn’t taken a snap yet due to injury. They started the year with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback, but he’s done for the year and Joe Flacco. And in the interim, they’ve basically selected fans from the crowd to go spend a day as the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos. So basically, I’m guessing there. Quarterbacks are seeded within their conference, 1-16, based on their team’s record on Tuesday, November 27, 2019 when I started writing this.

Let’s get started:

AFC

1. Tom Brady (NE)  vs. 16: Andy Dalton (CIN)

When I set out to resurrect this old post, I thought, “Surely there’s no way that Tom Brady will advance beyond the first round.” Then I looked at the bracket and thought, “Welp…” Andy Dalton (or Ryan Finley) is just keeping a seat warm in Cincinnati for Joe Burrow or Tua or Justin Herbert or whatever person talent evaluators get blindly excited about *after* the college season is over. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is probably going to win the Super Bowl again despite not being able to throw anything resembling an accurate deep pass.

8. Jacoby Brissett (IND) vs. 9. Ryan Tannehill (TEN)

This is like when the NCAA selection committee puts two 19-12 Power-5 conference teams against each other in March. So who will it be? North Carolina State or Texas A&M?  Brissett is simply a game manager, thrust into a starting role because of Andrew Luck’s retirement. He’s completing 65% of his passes, which is good, but he’s thrown for less than 2,000 yards this season and he’s got a QBR of 49.8. Meanwhile, Tannehill was thrust into this role because Marcus Mariota busted as a starting quarterback. In 7 games, Tannehill is completing 72% of his passes and has already thrown for 1,400 yards (in 3 fewer games than Brissett). Neither is going to set the world on fire and neither is getting past Tom Brady, who is 42 years old, but I’ll take the NFL veteran Tannehill because ultimately, this doesn’t matter. 

5.  Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. 12. Phillip Rivers (LAC)

The reigning NFL MVP, Mahomes, is currently second in the league in QBR and is averaging 312 yards passing per game. He has thrown 19 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Phillip Rivers is 37 years old and currently having his worst season as a pro, with a nearly 1:1 TD:INT ratio. So let’s move on…

  4. Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs. 13. Sam Darnold (NYJ)

Some day, Sam Darnold might be a good quarterback, capable of winning games on his own. On this specific day, he is averaging more than an interception per game and missed a few games this season with mononucleosis. Deshaun Watson, on the other hand, is a very good quarterback, completing nearly 70% of his passes, and limiting his turnovers despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. 

6.  Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. 11. Nick Foles (JAC)

Roethlisberger hasn’t played since a Week 2 injury ended his season. Before that injury he was not very good. The players who have played in his absence are clearly not Pittsburgh’s future quarterbacks. So we’ll go with him here and have him lose in the first round to Nick Foles, who has barely played this season and when he has, hasn’t won a game. Feel the excitement! 

3. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 14. Drew Lock (DEN)

Drew Lock has never taken an NFL snap and as I was a lapsed college football fan during his time in college, I have no earthly idea why he was a second round pick because I never heard anybody talk about him until it was time for the NFL Draft. Josh Allen is a bad quarterback. Sure, his Buffalo Bills are currently the third best team in the AFC, but that is entirely thanks to their very good defense. Allen has the third lowest completion percentage among qualified players at just over 60%. He’s averaging under 7 yards per completion, and his 44.8 QBR isn’t exactly upper echelon (it’s actually quite lower echelon). AND YET, he’s playing a guy who has literally never touched an NFL football in a game. So, congrats to Josh Allen.

7. Derek Carr (OAK)  vs. 10. Baker Mayfield (CLE)

For all of the hype around Baker Mayfield, much of it more known to me because I lived in Oklahoma for a year, he’s really not much better than his 2018 NFL draft brethren of Josh Allen and Sam Darnold. He’s thrown 13 picks to just 14 touchdowns, despite having arguably the most talented WR1/WR2 combo in football at his disposal.  Meanwhile, Derek Carr is completing over 70% of his passes and protecting the ball despite throwing to receivers you’ve literally never heard of unless you play fantasy football and aren’t particularly good at it. So Derek Carr it is.

2. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. 15. Josh Rosen (MIA)

There will be a time and place to praise Lamar Jackson’s greatness. This is not that space. That will come later. 

 

SECOND ROUND:

Tom Brady (1) vs. Ryan Tannehill (9)

I cannot rationalize Tom Brady losing here and it makes me ill. He’s clearly aged well past his prime, but he manages games better than anybody. And if you think I’m crazy, think of it this way: Neither of these guys is a long-term franchise quarterback. So let’s say you need to win the Super Bowl tomorrow. Which one are you starting and how long are you thinking about it before you choose Brady?

Patrick Mahomes (5) vs. Deshaun Watson (4)

Now this is a matchup. Mahomes is certainly a top 5 quarterback and statistically speaking, so is Watson. Mahomes is the clear and obvious winner here. There’s no rational argument for taking Deshaun Watson over him. But just look at the consistency of Watson. This is his third year as an NFL starter. His traditional quarterback ratings are 103.0, 103.1, and 103.4. He’s on pace for consecutive 4,000 yard passing seasons. He’s on pace to throw 30 TDs and rush for close to 10 more. He is a winner and a really good QB. I’m a huge Deshaun Watson fan. But I’m also a sane and rational person sometimes. So it’s Mahomes in this unfairly seeded (for Watson) matchup. 

Nick Foles (11) vs. Josh Allen (3)

No, I can’t let Deshaun Watson win this matchup, unfortunately. Foles is 7 years older than Allen and not nearly as mobile as the 7th pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. But Foles is a proven NFL winner (insert Trademark here). He’s been a good quarterback everywhere he’s gone, save for that stint in St. Louis playing for Jeff Fisher (guess who I blame for that one). Allen would be lucky to one day have a ceiling of Nick Foles. 

Derek Carr (7) vs. Lamar Jackson (2)

Remember, there will be a time and a place to discuss the greatness that Lamar Jackson has exhibited at this early stage in his career. We’re not there yet. Be patient. 

 

THIRD ROUND:

Tom Brady (1) vs. Patrick Mahomes (5)

There’s really no sense in dragging this out. Mahomes is on a level well above Brady right now and for the rest of their lives. Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time, but he’s 42 and looks 42. Mahomes is a gunslinging, scrambling wonder of a quarterback. I started watching the NFL again largely because I felt I was missing out by not watching Mahomes play. He’s the winner here, setting up quite the AFC final, because…

Nick Foles (11) vs. Lamar Jackson (2)

We are nearing the time and place where we will discuss Lamar Jackson’s greatness, but we haven’t gotten there just yet. 

 

AFC FINAL:

Patrick Mahomes (5) vs. Lamar Jackson (2)

It is very, very easy to jump the gun on a young, dynamic, exciting quarterback. We’ve been there recently with RGIII. We were there with Colin Kaepernick (who regressed measurably as a QB before Roger Goodell and the 32 owners blackballed him from the league). Even Cam Newton fits the definition and he won an MVP. Cam is now 30 and there are justified questions about whether Carolina is better long term without him.  Sustained greatness is very, very hard to achieve. So that’s the elephant in the room with this Mahomes v. Jackson matchup. I will also point out the other elephant in the room here: all of these quarterbacks are black. If anything, I think it says something we probably already knew about how the NFL treats black quarterbacks. Just imagine for a moment if Mitchell Trubisky was black and ask yourself what CFL team he’d be a third string QB for. Anyway…

Lamar Jackson is coming off of a legendary Monday Night Football performance, on the road, against a supposedly good defense. He is one of the fastest open field runners in the NFL at any position. In his first year as a full-time starter, he has made the blander-than-white rice Baltimore Ravens into the most must-watch team in the NFL. And he’s doing it with his arm too. 24 passing TDs to only 5 INTs. Highest QBR in the league. 67% accuracy rate. Third highest traditional passer rating. He’s on pace to throw for 3500+ yards and rush for more yards than any quarterback in a single season ever. He’s 22 years old. And 31 players were selected ahead of him in the 2018 NFL Draft (entirely because he’s a black quarterback. There is literally no other reason. He was a marvel in college and is a by-all-accounts good and decent person). 

And then there’s Patrick Mahomes. He’s the reigning MVP of the league. He’d be in that conversation this season too if not for an injury that saw him miss two games. Even still, he’s on pace for 4,000+ yards passing. He threw 50 TDs last season. He currently has an absurd 9.5:1 TD:INT ratio. And he just turned 24. 

I’m going with Mahomes here because he has an extra season under his belt. Lamar might very well prove me wrong, but to do that, he’ll have to be better than Mahomes and I’m not sure what that could possibly look like

 

NFC

1.  Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs. 16. Dwayne Haskins Jr. (WAS)

The San Francisco 49ers might be tied with New England for the best record in the NFL, but it’s not because of anything Jimmy G has done. He has been perfectly adequate in his role. He manages the game smartly and completes 69% of his passes. Dwayne Haskins…the jury is still out on Dwayne, but the 13.8 QBR could, um, be better.

8. Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) vs.  9. Carson Wentz (PHI)

No to all of this. A funny story: as mentioned, I lapsed in my football watching. I started paying some attention late last year and then have actually started following both college and the NFL this season. I recently commented to a friend something along the lines of: “MItchell Trubisky is the worst quarterback in the NFL, right?” I was flabbergasted to find out that he was the second overall pick in his draft. You know who else was the second overall pick in his draft? Carson Wentz. Man, it pays to be a mediocre white dude. Anyway, Trubisky is objectively bad and Wentz’s badness is somewhat debatable. Carson it is. 

5. Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. 12. Matthew Stafford (DET)

Who leads the NFL in traditional passer rating? Mahomes? Wilson? Mason Rudolph? Nope. It’s Kirk Cousins at a whopping 114.8. Traditional passer rating is as flawed a tool at measuring how good a QB is as RBI is at measuring a baseball hitter’s value, but it can still be an interesting factoid. Not to be outdone, Matt Stafford is 7th with a 106.0 rating. In QBR, they’re 6th (Stafford) and 7th. They’re both averaging 8.6 yards per attempt (4th in the league). And they’re both 31 years old.  What I’m saying is: they’re both playing really well this season and it’s hard to pick one to ultimately lose in the next round. Cousins is currently healthy though, so the nod goes to Kirk.

4. Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. 13. Kyler Murray (AZ)

Aaron Rodgers has won all 4 of these exercises in the past. So it’s strange then that he’s going to lose in the first round this year. But he is. Kyler Murray has not been asked to do a lot for the not-very-good Arizona Cardinals. But he has done what he’s been asked to do very well. 14 TDs. Only 5 INTs. 65% completion rate. On pace to pass for nearly 4,000 yards and more than 500 rushing yards. He’s 9th in the NFL in QBR. All of these statistics came as a shock to me. And he’s 22. Aaron Rodgers turns 36 next week. He’s a Hall of Fame quarterback. First ballot probably. But he’s 36 and facing a really young, exciting, and thus far successful rookie quarterback. So even though Rodgers’ 9:1 TD:INT ratio looks great, and even though Rodgers would have advanced out of the top half of this bracket without Kyler Murray, the seedings are as they are. 

6. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 11. Jameis Winston (TB)

One guy leads the NFL in passing yards (on pace for 4,993 total). The other guy leads the NFL in interceptions (on pace for 29). One guy is an accused rapist and batterer. The other guy eats Chunky soup. I’ll take the passing yardage and 800 calorie soup, please. 

3. Russell Wilson (SEA) vs. 14. Matt Ryan (ATL)

There may have been a time or place where this would have been interesting. This is not that time or place. Matt Ryan is going to continue to put up gaudy numbers, but it will remain Foutsian in its way. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is playing for his second Super Bowl and is in a three-man race with Prescott and Jackson for NFL MVP. 

7. Jared Goff (LAR) vs. 10. Kyle Allen (CAR)

Jared Goff is a bad quarterback. His salary is high, yes. But he is very bad at quarterbacking. Maybe he was exposed by the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Or maybe he was always not good and succeeded because nobody had exposed his overrated head coach. But in a passing era, Jared Goff, a former number one overall pick, is completing 61% of his passes and has thrown more INTs than TDs. He’s not good. I write this now because he’s still a better quarterback than Kyle Allen, who may or may not be Carolina’s “Quarterback of the Future.” If this had been Cam Newton instead, I still might have gone with Goff, which says more about the Panthers than it does Jared Goff.

2. Drew Brees (NO) vs. 15. Daniel Jones (NYG)

Drew Brees is 40 years old. Daniel Jones is 22. This has an Aaron Rodgers vs. Kyler Murray feel to it. I want Rodgers if I need to win a game today, just like I want Brees in that same situation. But beyond this season? It gets murkier. Jones has not been as impressive as Kyler Murray, but he hasn’t been bad. He’s not turning the ball over at an alarming rate. He’s completing 62% of his passes, which isn’t great, but the Giants offensive line makes the Texans’ look like the Cowboys’. (Jesus that was convoluted). I guess what I’m saying is, I’m going to go with youth here. But only barely. And only because I want to be consistent in my logic. 

 

SECOND ROUND:

Jimmy Garoppolo (1) vs. Carson Wentz (9)

It’s probably easy to just assume that Garoppolo and his 10-1 record should win this over Wentz, who has a Super Bowl ring that Nick Foles gave him. Wentz is two years younger, but his injury history (long and nagging) is more troublesome than Garoppolo’s (a torn ACL in 2018). Neither is a guy I’d be eager to start a franchise with, but I’ve got to choose and I’ll go with Garoppolo. 
Kirk Cousins (5) vs. Kyler Murray (13)

If Kyler Murray beat out Aaron Rodgers, you know how this is going. 

Dak Prescott (6) vs. Russell Wilson (3)

This is the NFC’s version of Mahomes vs. Watson in that it’s entirely unfair to Prescott. He gets a tougher shake than most because he’s the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, a team people treat like a perennial champion even though they haven’t played in a Super Bowl since I was in middle school. Dak plays behind the league’s best offensive line and has one of the best running backs behind him, but he’s not a game manager. He’s a very good quarterback. He’s third in the league in yards per attempt, and third in QBR, just ahead of Russell Wilson. So why am I picking Russell Wilson? Because Russell manages a game better than Prescott or anyone for that matter. Wilson knows how to win. When the situation calls for airing it out, he can do it. When it calls for a safe and accurate passing game, he can do it (his 8:1 TD:INT ratio this year, thank you). He’s just so consistently good and yet still relatively young (31 years old in a few days). (He also hasn’t missed a start since he came into the league, for what that’s worth).

Jared Goff (7) vs. Daniel Jones (15)

It’s Daniel Jones and let’s not spend any more time on this. 

 

THIRD ROUND:

Jimmy Garoppolo (1) vs. Kyler Murray (13)

I’m obviously going with the upside of Murray here. Is his height concerning? A little, but it hasn’t exactly failed him in his rookie campaign playing behind a bad offensive line. He’s in the perfect system in Arizona for a player with his skill set and his ceiling is ultimately a lot higher than Garoppolo’s, who is already 28 years old. 

Russell Wilson (3) vs. Daniel Jones (15)

Daniel Jones’ improbable (and favorable matchup-aided) Cinderella run comes to an abrupt, screeching halt. 

 

NFC FINAL:

Kyler Murray (13) vs. Russell Wilson (3)

Kyler Murray’s ceiling might be Russell Wilson, lazy comp aside. But Wilson is already there and has been doing remarkably good quarterbacking for 8 seasons despite playing with a less than stellar cast of skill position players. It’s Wilson now. If I let six years lapse between these posts, it’s almost assuredly Murray in 2025. 

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

Patrick Mahomes vs. Russell Wilson

This is easy. It’s unfortunate, I guess, because I actually think Wilson is underappreciated by football fans. He more than anyone else, in my estimation, shattered the terrible, outdated stereotypes about black quarterbacks and the decidedly less terrible stereotypes about short quarterbacks. He’s a 5’11”, black, Super Bowl winning, future Hall of Fame NFL quarterback. His success opened the door for Kyler Murray to be drafted first overall. And it’s likely that his success encouraged NFL executives to think beyond the “system QB” label that they previously applied to quarterbacks of color, opening the door for Mahomes, Murray, Watson, and Lamar Jackson. 

It’s not meaningless that this meaningless blog post ended with four black quarterbacks in the semifinals. And I think Russell Wilson’s success has a lot to do with that. 

Ultimately though, Patrick Mahomes is the face of the NFL today. His combination of age, pass accuracy, arm strength, size, and speed makes him an ideal quarterback for not just this era, but any era.