…or how I thought I’d never do another one of these.

Five years ago, I wrote my “last” NFL Mock Draft. Not long after that, I stopped watching American football. And then I moved to Oklahoma in 2018 and dipped my toes back into the waters of college football. And then the Rams and Chiefs played that Monday Night Football game and the FOMO was too much for me.

Last year I dove headfirst back into oblong-shaped ball sport, much to Amanda’s chagrin. I’ll spare any of you that read this the details of why I stopped watching and why I ultimately returned to watching. All I’ll say is that I watched and read a lot of football content last year and have strongly-held opinions that will be right (Nick Foles being a successful NFL quarterback) and ones that will be wrong (Marcus Mariota being a successful NFL quarterback) regarding this most peculiar of NFL Drafts.

I’m always torn on how to do these things. I could just give in to the groupthink or I could go on my own instincts and see how right I am in five years. Or find some middle ground. This will be more of the latter but a little of the former. I’m going to conduct this as though I was the GM of each team. In other words, this will not be a mock draft you’ll look at on draft night and think “wow he guessed who these teams would pick very well.” My intention is to not mimic every single thing I read from professional prognosticators. That’s boring for me. This is more about looking back in a few years and feeling a smug sense of self-satisfaction. Or shame. Let’s get to it.

Number 1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow (QB/LSU)
Joe Burrow is the best college quarterback I’ve seen since Andrew Luck, who was probably the best college quarterback I’ve seen in my lifetime. The Bengals ranked 30th in offensive efficiency last year and it’s abundantly clear that Andy Dalton is not the answer at QB. Cincinnati lacks a lot of talent and doesn’t have another first round pick. Trading back would make a lot of sense if there wasn’t a franchise QB staring at them. But there is. Burrow makes every throw on the field. He can move in the pocket. He can read defenses. He has the size. He tore apart Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson like he was playing Alabama State, Georgia Southern, and Furman.

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young (EDGE/Ohio State)
The Redskins are in the worst possible position in this draft. They need desperate help at the skill positions. If there was a Calvin Johnson in this draft, this would be the easiest pick. Washington NEEDS to move back in the first round and draft CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy. They probably won’t though. Instead, they’ll draft Chase Young, an EDGE rusher who fills a need for a live body on the defensive front. I am not necessarily this high on Chase Young. He surely has the measurables you want in an edge rusher. He’s quick and twitchy. And in college he manhandled offensive tackles. He also disappeared in Ohio State’s two biggest games, with 2 total tackles and 0 sacks against Clemson and 0 sacks in the B10 Championship game against a Wisconsin team that he had previously wrecked for 4 sacks earlier in the season. Then again, he missed a month of the season and still finished with 16.5 sacks. He’s more of an enigma to me than to professional scouts who love him and rate him as the top prospect in this draft.

3. Detroit Lions: Isaiah Simmons (LB/S/Clemson)
Isaiah Simmons doesn’t necessarily fill an immediate need, but he’s a Swiss Army knife. He can play at all three levels of the defense. He’s fast enough, strong enough, and smart enough in coverage. I think there are two elite, Hall of Fame-type talents in this draft and I think they’re Burrow and Simmons. There’s no player quite like Simmons on the defensive side of the ball in today’s specialized NFL. I’m so excited to see what he can do at the next level. Matt Patricia’s job is on the line in 2020. Detroit is in a perfect position to have their choice of at least 2 of the draft’s top players at each level of defense. Simmons will allow the “genius” Patricia to use the ultimate defensive tool in a variety of schemes. After spending a decade playing against Brian Urlacher, it will be nice for Detroit to have their own, even more athletic version of the Hall of Famer.

4. New York Giants: Tristen Wirfs (OT/Iowa)
Every mock draft on the face of the Earth has the Giants taking Isaiah Simmons (with the Lions taking Jeff Okudah). And sure, the Giants were bad on both sides of the football in 2019. What was the biggest issue towards the latter half of Eli Manning’s career? A porous offensive line that left the unathletic Manning flopping around, flinging floating passes into opposing linebackers’ hands. The Giants invested in their future last year in drafting Daniel Jones, who appears to be a capable quarterback. But you don’t buy a fancy car and not get good insurance on it. Wirfs is a versatile tackle who can play strong or weak side tackle. He’s a specimen of a man with the athleticism to keep Jones’ pocket clean for the next decade.

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (QB/Alabama)
The Dolphins have had arguably the most productive offseason of any team in the NFL. They’re in a great position to challenge the Bill for the AFC East championship in 2020, given their additions on defense. What this team has needed since Dan Marino retired is their QB of the future. There’s a world of uncertainty about Tua’s health and given the lack of in-person workouts and medical evaluations, there’s a risk in drafting him here. Miami however has the luxury of possessing two other first round picks. They have other needs on offense especially on the offensive line and at wideout. Tua is a better QB than Justin Herbert. The tape is there. It’s all there. Anybody who is writing that Herbert is a better QB is just bored. Herbert had plenty of time to prove himself against the weak defenses of the Pac 12 and he did, sometimes. Other times, he looked like a future third-string NFL QB. Tua is a star who can throw the ball accurately to every level. He’s worth the risk here.

6. Unwanted Football Team Chargers: Kristian Fulton (CB/LSU)
Alright, here is where things go off the rails a bit. The absolute consensus is that Jeff Okudah is the top CB in this draft. In fact, I’ve seen Fulton, a sure-fire Top 15 pick six months ago, go in the second round of some mock drafts. He is, by my eye, the best press coverage corner in this draft. He ran a 4.46 at the Combine. And he faced elite talent in college. The Chargers were a mess in the secondary in 2019 and they are in need of a franchise QB, but this is way too high to draft Justin Herbert.

7. Carolina Panthers: Jeff Okudah (CB/Ohio State)
Okudah will likely be a top 5 pick on Thursday and I’m not necessarily knocking him by having him go at 7. If Fulton is the best press corner, Okudah is right there behind him. Okudah is not as quick as Fulton and committed a number of pass interference penalties on deep balls in college, something you don’t want in the NFL where the penalty is a more severe spot foul. He’s still built perfectly for the position and would be an immediate upgrade for this porous secondary.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Mekhi Becton (OT/Louisville)
Becton is just an absolute freak of an athlete. He’s 6’7”. He weighs 364 pound. He ran a 5.1 in the 40-yard dash. He also allegedly failed a drug test at the Combine, which if you think that matters, remember Laremy Tunsil. Arizona is set on the left side of the line with D.J. Humphries, but think about the security Becton would provide Kyler Murray by holding down the right side. The Cardinals have done an excellent job upgrading their offense this offseasons, solely by adding DeAndre Hopkins for pennies on the dollar. The defense should be the focus in the rest of this draft, especially if they’re able to get one of Becton or Wirfs.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown (DT/Auburn)
This is a team in some kind of disarray as we approach the draft. In the last year they signed Nick Foles to be the franchise QB, lost him to injury, replaced him with Gardner Minshew III, saw GMIII become a fan favorite, had Foles return and struggle, went back to GMIII, sent Foles off to Chicago, franchise tagged Yannick Ngakoue, much to his chagrin, continue to look for trades for Ngakoue, and had franchise running back Leonard Fournette recently talk about how the team needs to improve at the QB position, which now sees Fournette, the fourth overall pick in the Deshaun Watson/Patrick Mahomes draft, on the trading block. Things aren’t great in Jacksonville. The defensive line is in shambles, after they traded Calais Campbell and let Marcell Dareus walk. Brown should be a day-one starter at DT for the Jags. He’s a proven run stuffer with the athleticism to move around the line and a big upgrade over, um, Abry Jones, who is, I assure you, a real person.

10. Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas (OT/Georgia)
The Browns have an immediate need at LT and while this is a bit of a reach for Thomas, who is a good but not great tackle prospect, the Browns are in an awkward position at 10 in terms of filling needs with talented players. The jury is still very much out on Baker Mayfield. The Brown need to give him the opportunity to succeed. But the top player on my board who is available here is Javon Kinlaw and with Sheldon Richardson at DT in the 3-4, that’s not a logical fit. The next guy is CeeDee Lamb, but with Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, the Browns don’t need to add more skill position players. Ideally, a team below them wants to move up to draft Justin Herbert or Jordan Love, allowing Cleveland to move back, get Thomas, and acquire an additional 3rd and 4th round pick. But we don’t do trades here.

11. New York Jets: CeeDee Lamb (WR/Oklahoma)
Wide receiver should be a no-brainer here for the Jets. Unless there are trades and I don’t foresee a lot of those on draft night, given the remote-ness, both Lamb and Jerry Jeudy should be available at 11. For me, the choice is Lamb because he has the size, hands, and strength to be a WR1 right away. He’s not the route-runner that Jeudy is, but Jeudy had a mild case of the dropsys last season and doesn’t have nearly the strength in the open field that Lamb does. The Jets have a lot of holes to fill on defense, but adding a star wideout gives Sam Darnold the best opportunity he’s had to prove he was worthy of being a top 5 draft pick.

12. Transient Raiders: Jerry Jeudy (WR/Alabama)
I fully expect the Raiders to do something weird here, like draft Henry Ruggs III or reach for a QB that Jon Gruden has a real crush on that would have otherwise been available in Round 3. In the logical world that I live in, Jeudy is the smart choice. I talked about him above. He runs crisp, precise routes. He’s not blazingly fast or strong or big. He profiles as a very consistent WR. And remember how the Raiders had that really good WR from Alabama that they inexplicably traded? Now they can replace him.

13. Santa Clara 49ers (from Indy): Josh Jones (OT/Houston)
The 49ers got this pick by trading DeForest Buckner to the Colts and you can consider this a case of the rich getting richer. Buckner is a great player, but getting a top 13 pick for him was some kind of devil magic. San Francisco has done a great job of acquiring talent in the draft under John Lynch. This pick is kind of like a “free play” for them. Jones didn’t face top-end talent in the AAC in college, but he’s a really athletic tackle who can both pass and run block and doesn’t need to start right away, with Joe Staley at LT. In one year, people might scoff at this pick and think “what a waste…he barely played.” And then 3 years down the line, he could be an All-Pro tackle. There’s a tremendous amount of upside here and little risk for a team that’s stacked and coming off of a Super Bowl appearance.

14. Tom Brady Buccaneers: Jedrick Willis Jr. (OT/Alabama)
Who knows what the heck this team thinks it is. The defense is good, not great, in the front 7. The secondary is a nightmare and I could see them going for a CB or Safety here too, but let’s just assume that a team with a 43 year old immobile QB needs protection for him in the most immediate sense. They’re left at the tackle position with the biggest question mark when it comes to pass blocking, in Willis. They’d certainly love for Thomas or Becton to fall here. This is the nightmare scenario for Tampa Bay. If the draft plays out similar to this and Thomas and Becton aren’t here, I’d imagine Tampa trying to move back, drafting in the secondary, and picking up a tackle in Round 2, where there should be some decent options available, like Boise State’s Ezra Cleveland. In a world without trades, they take their chances on the talented, physically impressive, and athletic Willis and hope that his pass blocking has improved, somehow, during a time when he would have received no in-person coaching. Good luck Tom!

15. Denver Broncos: Justin Jefferson (WR/LSU)
We are assuming that John Elway is truthful in his support for Drew Lock. Given how the OT situation has played out above (i.e. There’s now no one left), Denver needs to give Lock a big weapon in Jefferson, who is coming off of an insane 111 reception/18 TD season at LSU. He’s the absolute perfect slot receiver for the modern NFL, with great quickness and some size and really steady hands. And he doesn’t lack in the route-running department either. He should be a really high-end consistent pass-catcher for a long time in the NFL, assuming that Drew Lock can put the ball in his vicinity. Which, I guess we’ll see.

16. Atlanta Falcons: Jaylon Johnson (CB/Utah)
Defensive secondary is an absolute no-brainer for the Falcons, who were dreadful against the pass in 2019. I’m much higher on Johnson than any professional evaluations. He stood up well in the pass-heavy Pac12. He’s a very aggressive cover corner, with great feet. Truly, the Falcons could draft any of Johnson, CJ Henderson, AJ Terrell, or Trevon Diggs here and it would be a huge upgrade over whatever it is they got last year.

17. Dallas Cowboys: CJ Henderson (CB/Florida)
Dallas lost Byron Jones in free agency, so Henderson is a great need-fit. Henderson has the prototypical body of an NFL corner. He’s really quick and excellent in 1-1 coverage. The biggest question mark, and why I have him ranked below Jaylon Johnson, is he was not good last year. Even accounting for SEC teams avoiding his side of the field, Henderson had 0 INTs and just 32 tackles. Still, the talent is absolutely there.

18. Miami Dolphins (from Pittsburgh): Javon Kinlaw (DT/South Carolina)
The Dolphins have 3 first round picks and are sitting in a spot where an elite DT has fallen primarily because the teams above them have more immediate needs. Kinlaw is not the 18th best player in this draft. I have him ranked in my top 10. He’s a monster DT who consistently gets to the QB. He’ll be a huge upgrade on Day 1 over Davon Godchaux and leaves Miami with still another first round pick to improve on the offensive side of the ball.

19. Transient Raiders (from Chicago): Grant Delpit (S/LSU)
The Raiders were the worst defensive team in the NFL in 2019, in terms of efficiency, and have done little in the offseason to improve on that side of the ball. Delpit has seen his draft stock plummet after a nagging ankle injury saw him miss time and be more ineffective in the latter half of last season. Before the injury, he was a consensus Top 10 pick. He’s a big safety at 6’3” who is more of a hitter than a tackler. He’s also a ball-hawk. There’s certainly some Tyrann Mathieu in his game, lazy LSU-comp aside. The Raiders have the draft capital, with three more picks in the top 100 to take a gamble on a hugely talented player like Delpit.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LA Rams): AJ Terrell (CB/Clemson)
The Jaguars use their second pick to continue to shore up their porous defense. Terrell is a risky prospect at CB. His measurables are off the charts. He’s big, he’s very fast, and he’s a true man-to-man corner. He also vanished at times for Clemson, most problematically in the National Championship against LSU where he was absolutely dominated by Ja’Marr Chase. Still, this is a team that needs help at corner and Terrell has all of the tools to be a very good one in the NFL.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Henry Ruggs III (WR/Alabama)
If the Eagles do not draft a wide receiver in the first round, their entire front office should be fired on the spot. Philadelphia invested heavily in Carson Wentz and are giving him the ghosts of Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson to throw to. Ruggs is not an outside receiver. He’s generously listed at 5’11”. He is, though, this year’s Hollywood Brown. He is electric in the open field and has great hands. He has all the makings of a YAC machine at the next level, if he can survive against man coverage in the slot, given his 188 LB frame.

22. Minnesota Vikings (from Buffalo): Trevon Diggs (CB/Alabama)
Given the earlier run on corners, Minnesota would be wise to use this first pick to grab the only remaining first round talent at the position. The Vikings struggled in the secondary last year and lost Xavier Rhodes and Trae Wayans in free agency. And honestly, isn’t the symmetry of them getting this pick for Stefon Diggs and then drafting his brother too good? I think so. Of note, I think this is going to be the hottest trade target of the first round, especially if Justin Herbert and Jordan Love are still available ahead of New England’s selection. I could see a team like Pittsburgh moving in to the first round to draft the heir apparent to Ben Roethlisberger before Bill Belichick can have his choice.

23. New England Patriots: Xavier McKinney (S/Alabama)
…and yet, I cannot see Belichick drafting Justin Herbert or Jordan Love in the first round. This is his chance to show that all of that Patriots’ success was his and not Tom Brady’s. And sitting right there for him is McKinney, a versatile safety who tackles well and can get to the QB on the blitz. He would be an immense upgrade over the aging Patrick Chung at SS and Belichick is known to have a fondness for Nick Saban-coached defensive players.

24. New Orleans Saints: Kenneth Murray (LB/Oklahoma)
The Saints are the total package. There are very few holes at the top of their depth chart. Cornerback would be an area to improve but given what’s available here, why reach when you can build defensive depth with a tackling stud like Murray, who racked up over 100 tackles for Oklahoma in 2019? Murray is a great athlete who can move from sideline to sideline. There’s some Luke Keuchly in him. He would be an anchor at ILB for the Saints.

25. Minnesota Vikings: Denzel Mims (WR/Baylor)
Mims is blessed with every attribute you’d want in a prototypical receiver. He’s big. He’s strong. He’s fast. His combine performance was excellent, as was his Senior Bowl week. He is not a very good route runner, however, but we’re at a point with receivers where, if you’re a team like Minnesota (with two first round picks) you’ve got to give a nod to upside, which is where Mims outshines the three or four other receivers who could end this first round.

26. Miami Dolphins (from Houston): Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR/Colorado)
Miami has secured their QB position and DT position for years to come in the first round, after doing a great job in free agency. Now they need the WR for Tua to throw to. Miami already has size with DeVante Parker and Preston Williams at wideout. Shenault gives them a pass-catcher who can line up at any receiver position and win balls in traffic. I’m biased because these are my picks, but I think in this scenario, Miami is set up for years of success under Brian Flores.

27. Seattle Seahawks: K’Lavon Chaisson (EDGE/LSU)
A huge value grab at a position of need for the Seahawks, who struggled to get to the opposing QB last year. Chaisson’s knocks include an ACL tear that cost him the 2018 season and only 6.5 sacks in 2019. The attributes are all there, but he’s a bit on the raw side. That said, Seattle has two second round picks and can more than afford to draft a high upside player at a position of need.

28. Baltimore Ravens: A.J. Epenesa (EDGE/Iowa)
The Ravens’ biggest area of need is interior offensive lineman. This is not the kind of draft with a generational guard talent anywhere in sight of the first round, so we move over to the defensive side of the ball, where the Ravens struggled to stop the run, most famously against the Tennessee Derrick Henrys in the AFC Divisional Round. They’ve already brought in Calais Campbell to lock down one side of their base 3-4. Epenesa, who is solid in the run and flexible enough to play in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, should help improve this particular area of weakness. His stock has dropped after a poor showing at the Combine, but the tools are all there for the powerful 6’5” rusher.

29. Tennessee Titans: Yetur Gross-Matos (EDGE/Penn State)
The Titans made the most inexplicably stupid offseason move by signing Ryan Tannehill to a lucrative contract. Their offense is predicated on giving the ball to Derrick Henry 30 times a game and having a QB who won’t turn the ball over. So they spent $118 million to lock up a guy nobody wanted a year ago, whose playoff numbers were clears throat 36-60, 369 yards in 3 games. Anyway, good luck to them. Gross-Matos is basically A.J. Epenesa and nobody can convince me that they’re not the same person.

30. Green Bay Packers: Tee Higgins (WR/Clemson)
The Packers are a long way from their Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley days and Aaron Rodgers isn’t getting any younger (or better). Tee Higgins gives Rodgers the kind of monster outside receiver he’s never really had in Green Bay. Higgins is not a burner by any stretch, but he would become Rodgers’ top red zone target on Day 1.

31. Santa Clara 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk (WR/Arizona State)
The 49ers stay on the offensive side of the ball and look for a replacement for Emmanuel Sanders. Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel would pose an enormous speed threat to every opposing defense, with Aiyuk probably being the more traditional wideout, albeit one who could also star as a punt returner for the Niners. Combine the speed of Aiyuk and Samuel with the YAC of George Kittle and the 49ers suddenly have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFC.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Queen (ILB/LSU)
To say that the Chiefs don’t have a lot of needs would be an understatement, which is why I have them taking the top rated defensive player left. Queen will be an undersized middle linebacker in the NFL, but is a really smart player with lightning quick response times, especially defending the screen game.

Okay, so, where are the Quarterbacks?

Look, I’m not high on Justin Herbert or Jordan Love. I don’t think either are worth a first round pick. Herbert has the size. And he is, by all accounts, very smart. There were games this season where I watched the best QB in the country and other times where I saw an absolute draft bust. Look at it this way: Coming into the season, he was rated as the second best QB prospect in the draft. During the season, his stock tumbled. Once the season ended, everyone fell in love with him again, because he’s 6’6” and isn’t coming off of a hip injury. That he’s spoken about in the same breath as Tua is baffling to me. He’s nowhere near the passer that Tua is. The accuracy is just not there on a consistent basis. The arm strength is there and he can scramble, but his medium game is not first-round level. I think he can be an NFL QB because that bar is not terribly high. But this is a four-year starter at the Division I level. We’ve seen his development and it kind of just stalled out. I think he’s a smart second round pick or, as I mentioned earlier, a good pick late in the first for a team that will need to replace a veteran (a la Pittsburgh, where I think he will end up) soon.

Jordan Love, well, I just don’t get it at all. Again, great arm. Even more athletic than Herbert. Great size. He also threw 17 interceptions in the Mountain West in 2019 and completed just 62% of his passes. Herbert completed 68% and accuracy is the primary concern with him. I’ve seen the incomprehensibly lazy Patrick Mahomes comp for Jordan Love and I’m embarrassed for both Love and Mahomes. Do I think Jordan Love can play in the NFL? Certainly. Do I think I’d feel comfortable using a first round pick (especially in a draft that I think is very deep on talent) on him? Absolutely not.

There are a few teams (outside of Cincinnati and Miami who I think will definitely take Burrow and Tua) that still need a starting QB. The Chargers can get by for a season with Tyrod Taylor. The Redskins have to give Dwayne Haskins Jr. another year, at least. The Raiders aren’t going to move into Las Vegas with a rookie QB at the helm. That leaves Denver and New England. I don’t really believe that the Broncos believe that Drew Lock is their QB of the future. But I also don’t believe that Herbert or Love is better right now than Lock. Which leaves us with the Patriots. Do I think they would be insane to enter the 2020 season with Jarrett Stidham as their starting QB? Absolutely, unless the goal is to have him embarrass himself, finish 3-13, secure the first pick, and draft Trevor Lawrence. But if we learned anything from the Dolphins’ “Tank for Tua” plan (which inexplicably might still work), it’s that things change. No NFL team should be tanking for any one QB. Trevor Lawrence is one unfortunate injury away from leaving Justin Fields as 2021’s top prospect. Ultimately, I think New England brings Jameis Winston aboard for a one year experiment, sees what they’ve got in Stidham in those games where Winston throws 4 INTs and gets benched, and evaluates the QB position next offseason after Bill Belichick retires.

That’s my long way of saying, I don’t think Herbert or Love should be drafted in the first round. (But ultimately, I think both do).

The one QB who I would target later on in the draft is Washington State’s Anthony Gordon, who put up (unsurprisingly) great numbers in Mike Leach’s lunatic offense. He’s the kind of safe-bet QB that a team like Tennessee should have targeted instead of burning cap money on Tannehill. Gordon can make every short and intermediate throw with precision accuracy. He would be an excellent 3rd or 4th round pick who I truly think could start on Day 1 in the NFL in an offense that isn’t predicated on deep throws.

And if I really wanted to torture you, this would be a long section about how much I love Ashtyn Davis, a safety out of Cal-Berkeley, who will likely be a second round pick. But this is a good enough place to end.