What follows is my mock draft. It’s different from most mock drafts because nobody talks to me, I’ll probably not proofread it, and I don’t plan to promote it on social media.

Why should you continue reading? I follow the sport. I read a lot. I follow college football. I pay $20 a year for this domain name. If you’ve stumbled here through an errant Google or Bing search, I’m sorry. But maybe keep reading.

I write these posts for me, really. Sure, I’d like for someone to read this and think that I can write competently and know a thing or two about football. But more than anything, I like to have a place where I can look back on my thoughts a few years from now and say “Good job” or “Bad job.”

The mock draft below is not my attempt to go 32/32 (I’m bolding this for the people who don’t read the intro). I’m draft for each team as though I were their GM, operating with unilateral decision making powers. I’m drafting the players I think are best at each position based on what I saw in college and what I’ve read from a collection of draft sources. Let’s go.

1.Jacksonville Jaguars select Trevor Lawrence (QB/Clemson) I’m not going to be cute here. Lawrence is the best QB in this draft and probably the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. He’s so good that the most common knock on him at this point is that maybe he doesn’t love football like a maniacal obsessive. I think that’s a fine thing. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and a really good one at that.

2. New York Jets select Justin Fields (QB/Ohio State) In real life, the Jets will take Zach Wilson. I’ll talk about him at some point in this first round (probably!). Of course, this pick didn’t need to be used on a QB. The Jets had Sam Darnold, who they just drafted third overall in 2018 (after giving up a haul of picks to move up to select him), but they traded him to Carolina earlier this month for table scraps in the form of draft picks. Fields to me is a much safer bet than Wilson. His ceiling is higher than I think he’s getting credit for and I wonder how much of the negative thinking around him is because of Ohio State’s failure to create good NFL QBs (and also racism). Fields is not Cardale Jones, JT Barrett, or Dwayne Haskins. Fields is deadly accurate in the pocket, can throw on the run, and has the size you want in a starting QB. There’s also a bunch of game tape against NFL-light defenses (Clemson twice, Alabama once, Big 10 opponents). Zach Wilson played Coastal Carolina last year and wasn’t very good.

3. San Francisco 49ers select Trey Lance (QB/North Dakota State) San Francisco traded up to this spot to, the world assumes, draft a quarterback. I think in a perfect world, they’d take one more run at it with Jimmy Garoppolo, but they must be either nervous about his medicals or just generally nervous about him medically. The other 21 starters are really good. Collectively probably a top 5 team in the NFL. Injuries ravaged them last year, including to Jimmy G. I would have stayed put at the 12 spot where there will be really good value. Here, I take Trey Lance who is a more accurate Josh Allen on paper. Lance is big, fast, and very accurate. He didn’t lose a game in college and didn’t throw an interception. He also didn’t play against FBS competition. But the attributes and attitude are great on Lance and teams have done well with North Dakota State quarterbacks in recent years (the Eagles don’t get to the Super Bowl without Carson Wentz). Can Lance start on Day 1 for a team that should have Super Bowl aspirations? That’s a good question and one that leaves me wondering why the 49ers traded into this spot.

4. Atlanta Falcons select Kyle Pitts (TE/Florida) Truthfully, the Jets should have kept Darnold and drafted Pitts. Likewise Miami should have stayed at 3 and drafted Pitts. Pitts is a unicorn. He’s a create-a-player in Madden. He can play outside as a receiver. He can play inside as a tight end. He can be physical over the middle. He can burn cornerbacks deep. Pitts should define the tight end position for the next generation and should be the ultimate gamechanger. Are there other needs for Atlanta? Certainly. Their defense is the pits (pun intended) or maybe it’s…for the birds (ha!). Atlanta could trade back into the teens to draft one of the cornerbacks, but they’d be passing up on the kind of talent that gets GMS fired for passing up on them.

5. Cincinnati Bengals select Penei Sewell (OT/Oregon) Last season ended for the Bengals when their franchise quarterback, who had spent the season being hammered behind a bad offensive line, tore his ACL and MCL. You don’t draft a franchise quarterback and throw him behind a bad offensive line just like you don’t buy a Bugatti and leave it unlocked in a Von’s parking lot with the keys in and the door wide open. Sewell, as a prospect, is a lot more than just insurance for Burrow. This isn’t meant to sell him short. But Cincy would be making a huge mistake if they drafted a skill position player here. Sewell should be a top-tier LT for the next decade. You cannot win in the NFL without players like Sewell.

6. Miami Dolphins select Ja’Marr Chase (WR/LSU) Chase sat out the 2020 “season” as did Sewell and others who you’ll find here. When we last saw Chase on the field, he was making then-Clemson CB AJ Terrell his son in the National Championship Game. Terrell went on to be a first round pick by the Falcons and was mostly fine in his rookie season. Chase has the potential to be a whole heck of a lot better than “fine.” Think Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Chase isn’t a huge outside receiver. But he’s fast and plays physically for his size (6’0″). And then there’s that tape against AJ Terrell where it’s hard to understate just how much he outplayed Terrell. Miami should stick with Tua and surround him with as many high-end skill position players as possible. Outside of Pitts, it doesn’t get more high end than Ja’Marr Chase in this draft.

7. Detroit Lions select Zach Wilson (QB/BYU) Look, the Lions are a bad football team. Really bad. I don’t think there’s another team in the NFL who is further away from simply being a playoff team than Detroit. They made the weird offseason trade for Jared Goff, who is absolutely nothing more than a middling QB. They hired an absolute weirdo football robot (Dan Campbell) to be their head coach. And they lost their top receiver, Kenny Golladay, in free agency to the Giants. If I’m in this spot, I’m taking the best trade offer on the table and acquiring assets to begin a legitimate 3 year build. I’ve never proposed trades before in a mock and I’m not going to do one here (Denver moving up would make a lot of sense). The other elephant in the room here is that on draft night, Zach Wilson will not be here. As we’ve established, he’s getting drafted IRL by the Jets, which means that on draft night, Detroit should draft the best available quarterback here if they’re not moving back. As for Wilson, I’m not a believer in him as the second best QB in this class. I think he certainly has a high ceiling, but his floor is an Olympic diving pool. It really feels like Wilson through one pass at his pro day and earned himself millions of dollars. And if Zach Wilson is making cross body, 60 yard passes on the regular, I can’t really say his team will be winning games. I’m much more concerned with his accuracy in the short and medium field than if he can do circus tricks with a football (that, by the way, Justin Fields can also do). TLDR: Detroit is a mess and Wilson is either the answer (as a franchise quarterback) or the answer (in the form of the impetus to tear it all down and start from scratch).

8. Carolina Panthers select Devonta Smith (WR/Alabama) Carolina has Teddy Bridgewater (traded to Denver while this was in DRAFTS), PJ Walker, and Sam Darnold on their roster, so taking Mac Jones here would be superfluous. Darnold deserves a chance to play QB for a competent coach (Joe Brady is a decided upgrade over Adam Gase), so I’m taking the Heisman Trophy winner and pairing him with DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to give Darnold a really diverse receiving corps. Smith is a human Dyson vacuum in the slot or outside. Whether he can play on the outside in the NFL at his size (6’0″, 170 LBS) is the biggest question mark. He runs precise routes, he’s a team leader, he’s explosive at the line. He’s everything you want in a receiver. Except he weighs 170 LBS. Carolina has a window to compete with Matt Ryan aging and the Saints in transition. Starting over with a rookie QB just doesn’t feel the way to go here. Especially when you have a talented, young QB who has never had a real shot to be good.

9. Denver Broncos select Micah Parsons (LB/Penn State) If this scenario plays out and the only QB on the board is Mac Jones, Denver should hand in this card in roughly 2.5 seconds. Parsons is a perfect fit for head coach Vic Fangio’s defense, in that he’s an excellent and versatile linebacker. It’s rare to see an inside linebacker go this high in the modern NFL, but Parsons is worth the top 10 pick. He can cover the Travis Kelce’s of the world and tackle the Josh Jacobs’s too. You can build a really good defense around guys like Parsons. And when you play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert 4 times per year, you better have a good defense.

10. Dallas Cowboys select Patrick Surtain II (CB/Alabama) I fall in love with big cover cornerbacks very very easily. And boy did I fall in love with Surtain II. Dallas’s pass defense was abysmal in 2020 and the jury is still out on Trevon Diggs, their second round CB selection in last year’s draft. Diggs’ former Alabama teammate is the prototypical outside man cover corner. He shut down half the field in college. That won’t be the case initially in the NFL. Teams will challenge rookie corners. But I think Surtain has the ball instincts to make teams regret that quickly. He won’t win DROY because the counting stats won’t be there, but the counting stats likely won’t be there because teams will avoid his side of the field.

11. New York Giants select Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL/USC) Whether the Giants want to use Vera-Tucker at Tackle or Guard is their choice. I’d start him at Guard. He’s versatile enough to play almost anywhere on the offensive line and the Giants have loooooong had trouble protecting the QB. The Giants are in an interesting spot here with the QB Jones still on the board (if other mocks are more accurate, it’ll likely be Fields that falls). Vera-Tucker is arguably a reach here depending on who you read. For me, this is a great spot for a versatile offensive lineman with a great motor. But the Giants would be wise to consider acquiring assets, moving down into the lower teens/early 20s (Chicago at 20 would make sense) and hoping that Vera-Tucker is there. And if he’s not, the Giants have a need for an edge rusher, an interior defensive lineman, and even Saquon Barkley insurance.

12. Philadelphia Eagles select Jaylen Waddle (WR/Alabama) Philly finds itself inching closer and closer to Detroit Lions territory with this pick. Last year, with Justin Jefferson on the board, the Eagles inexplicably drafted Jalen Reagor. Two years ago, they used a second round pick on JJ Arcega-Whiteside just a few slots after AJ Brown and a few before DK Metcalf. It’s time for Philly to stop being cute on draft day and take the best available player at a position of real need for them. Luckily for the Eagles, they have a bunch of draft picks this year to fill out a depleted roster. But if they’re going to find out if Jalen Hurts can be their QB long-term, he’ll need more than Reagor and JAW catching passes. Waddle played in just five games last year (only 4 of which he was healthy for) and averaged 20 yards per reception in each game. He is explosive and could find himself in the Pro Bowl solely as a return man in the NFL. He is much more than a specialist though. There really is no gap between Waddle and his Alabama teammate Devonta Smith and I could definitely see Waddle get drafted ahead of his smaller college teammate despite Smith’s collection of college hardware.

13. Los Angeles Chargers select Rashawn Slater (OT/Northwestern) With Waddle off the board, this has to come down to one of the two remaining high-level tackles or Jaycee Horn. Protecting Justin Herbert is imperative which makes this an easy decision. Slater was an absolute brick wall in terms of protecting the QB at Northwestern and would be a Day 1 starter on Herbert’s blind side. (A note on Herbert: I’ve been playing NFL draft guessing games for a long time and once in a while, I’m right, while sometimes I’m wrong. Never have I been more wrong than with Justin Herbert, who I didn’t think was worth a first round pick last year. Herbert showed incredible growth from his time at Oregon and looks to be a franchise cornerstone in Los Angeles. Mea culpa on that one.)

14. Minnesota Vikings select Christian Darrisaw (OT/Virginia Tech) Minnesota is another team, like Philly with about 18 holes to fill on their roster. The board as it played out here, very much fell in their favor. Vera-Tucker would also have been a great pick for them because of his versatility, as Minnesota has real needs on the interior of the offensive line too, but Darrisaw is too good and was too consistent at Virginia Tech to pass up here. He allowed zero sacks and only 5 quarterback hurries in his last season in Blacksburg. Equally good as a run blocker and a pass blocker, he makes perfect sense for the Vikings, who will also have a number of suitors at this point.

(SIDEBAR BREAK: I think it’s very likely that one of the five QBs takes a tumble on Thursday. Here it’s Mac Jones because I think he probably should take a tumble. New England is coming up and the experts seem to think they’ll swing a trade to move up and draft a QB. But there are a bunch of other teams that should also consider moving into the mid-teens if a QB is available (Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, maybe the Saints). And New England has never been shy about needlessly trading back and acquiring draft capital that they’ll waste on kickers and long snappers.)

15. New England Patriots select Mac Jones (QB/Alabama) The Patriots should be much, much better in 2021 than they were in 2020. They spent big in free agency and will get a number of 2020 opt-outs back. One area where they are decidedly not better is QB. Cam Newton was awful in the latter stretches of the season and should absolutely not be the Week 1 starter for any NFL team. New England didn’t pursue an upgrade which has to mean they’re targeting a QB, right? Jones is not the perfect NFL QB. He’s very accurate at all three levels, but was also throwing to two first rounders and handing off to maybe another. And he was playing behind an offensive line with at least three top 60 picks this year. That said, he’s not terribly dissimilar in makeup to Tom Brady. In fact, his arm is probably a little stronger. His relative immobility hurts, but would you rather have a QB that can make all the throws (Jones) or whatever it is that Cam Newton is now?

16. Arizona Cardinals select Jaycee Horn (CB/South Carolina) Patrick Peterson is gone, which at this juncture in his career isn’t the worst thing in the world for Arizona. If Horn falls, he should be the pick. He’s another big (6’1″) man-cover corner with experience playing at the highest level in college football. Look for this pick to lean defense for a franchise that will need to upgrade at all three levels to make a serious playoff run during Kyler Murray’s prime and while DeAndre Hopkins is still around.

17. Las Vegas Raiders select Trevon Moehrig (S/TCU) Vegas fits into the Minnesota/Philly spot of just needing players everywhere. The Raiders decided to essentially layoff their entire offensive line, so that would make sense here, but there’s no real value left on this board. I go with Moehrig who is a versatile safety that can play in the slot (in fact he took as many snaps there in 2020 as he did at safety) and is a sound tackler. Not a sexy “Raiders” pick but a really good football player on a team that needs a lot of those.

18. Miami Dolphins select Zaven Collins (OLB/Tulsa) Miami has 4 of the top fifty picks in this draft, so while some may see drafting Collins here as a reach, I see it as an investment opportunity. He’s an athletic freak at 6’5″. He can play at OLB as an edge rusher or as a coverage backer. Brian Flores is a great defensive coach who should be able to tap into Collins’ size and skill to make him a star, albeit an unconventional one given his size. Had Collins gone to a bigger school, given his measurables, I think you’re looking at a top 10 pick in this draft. He’s really good.

19. Washington Football Team select(s) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB/Notre Dame) This is the perfect scenario for the WFT. Sure, the PERFECT scenario would be Trevor Lawrence inexplicably and impossibly falling to 19. Short of one of the 5 QBs being there (and I honestly don’t even think Mac Jones would be a great pick for them) though, this is the guy to target. Pass rush is not a problem for WFT. Pass coverage in the medium game is though and Owusu-Koramoah solves that problem on day one. He’s explosively quick for his position, something you can credit in part to his relative lack of size (2 inches shorter and 20+ LB lighter than Micah Parsons). QB is going to be an issue for the Football Team in 2021 and beyond. And they could certainly use a WR in this draft. But there is some depth at those positions, especially WR.

20. Chicago Bears select Greg Newsome II (CB/Northwestern) When in doubt, take the local kid? The Bears are in a no-win situation. There’s a fall-off in talent at about this point and they have a lot of needs. They drafted Jaylon Johnson last year and he showed competency as a cornerback. Corner isn’t the most pressing of needs for Chicago (that’s QB), but Newsome is the top player on my board and they could certainly stand to get better in the secondary. The front 6 or 7 should be just fine.

21. Indianapolis Colts select Elijah Moore (WR/Mississippi) …and they don’t even have to think about it very long. Moore is the prototypical slot WR, which I think 10 years ago might have sounded dismissive, but really, how often do teams not run a 3 WR set in the modern NFL. He’s blazingly fast with great hands. Think a richer man’s TY Hilton.

22. Tennessee Titans select Kadarius Toney (WR/Florida) It’s a run on 6’0″ and under SEC wideouts. Toney is so quick he makes Elijah Moore look like late career Wes Welker, who would simply catch the ball and fall down. There are less flashy wideouts, like Rashod Bateman, on the board here, but Toney would give the physical Titans offense a spark that would really make teams less inclined to load the box to stop Derrick Henry. With AJ Brown doing AJ Brown stuff on the outside and Toney doing what he can do (shredding apart the middle of the field), Tennessee would have one of the more dynamic offenses in the AFC.

23. New York Jets select Kwity Paye (Edge/Michigan) The Jets need guys who can get to the QB. Vinny Curry’s 3 total sacks in 2020 just ain’t cutting it. Pair the twitchy and technically sound Paye with Carl Lawson on the outside and, of course, you’ve got Quinnen Williams in the middle and all of a sudden, the Jets front 4 looks way better than it did in 2020.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers select Teven Jenkins (OL/Oklahoma State) I have Jenkins listed as an OL rather than an OT because the knock on him is that he has short arms, typically an indicator that a move to the inside is coming. For Pittsburgh that would be fine because their offensive line was atrocious in 2020 and they lost both of their tackles. Pittsburgh needs a QB and needs one soon. I’d look for them to move up in the second round (from 55) to take the best available QB to sit behind Roethlisberger for a year. This spot is just too early to take a Kellen Mond however.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars select Liam Eichenberg (OG/Notre Dame) Like Jenkins before him, Eichenberg is a short-armer. Otherwise, we’re looking at a guy who should be a sure-fire top 20 pick. As it stands, he might not get selected on Thursday, but whoever does draft him is going to get a versatile lineman who they can try at tackle, should the need be there. Jacksonville is better off with him at guard where he should excel. He registered just under a 90 grade from Pro Football Focus last season. He’s good and I’m not sure why there’s not more chatter about him.

26. Cleveland Browns select Christian Baramore (DT/Alabama) Baramore had an absolutely phenomenal CFP National Championship game. On a field that featured enough players to make their own first round, Baramore might have been the best player out there. The tape doesn’t all look like that for him though, which is why he falls to the Browns who are desperate for an interior force on their defensive line. If they get the guy who ran roughshod over Ohio State’s offensive line, they’ll have the steal of the draft. If they get the balance of good tape-bad tape, they’re still upgrading.

27. Baltimore Ravens select Jayson Oweh (Edge/Penn State) Derek Wolfe is a fine player, but at this stage in his career, he’s just not an every down pass rusher. Enter Oweh, whose measurables (size/speed) are off the charts and whose game tape is…fine. Baltimore has a way of getting the best out of their guys and I think this is a perfect landing spot for an uber talented guy who just didn’t put it all together in college.

28. New Orleans Saints select Caleb Farley (CB/Virginia Tech) Do this little exercise six months ago and Farley isn’t escaping the top 15. His medicals are a concern. Sciatica. Herniated discs. Multiple surgeries. He sat out the 2020 season so there’s no fresh tape on him. This is the riskiest pick in the first round. If Farley is healthy enough to go, the Saints are getting the best corner outside of Surtain, at a position of need. If he’s not, a team that has a lot of nagging little holes will have wasted valuable draft capital.

29. Green Bay Packers select Dillon Radunz (OT/North Dakota State) Two NDSU players in the first round and only one Clemson player. Go figure. Anyway, wide receiver would be a smart pick here, but I’m just not that high on Rashod Bateman and my most recent memory of Green Bay is watching their offensive line get annihilated by the Bucs in the playoffs. The window to win with Aaron Rodgers is closing and who knows what Jordan Love will be. Better to wait on one of the second round wideouts and protect their future Hall of Famer better than they did in 2020.

30. Buffalo Bills select Jaelen Phillips (Edge/Miami) As versatile of an edge rusher as you’ll find, Buffalo could move Phillips inside at times should the need arise. Buffalo drafted AJ Epenesa last year to mixed results. The one area where the Bills need to get better is pressuring the QB. They just might want to get Phillips (who played at Miami after transferring from UCLA) some warm weather gear.

31. Baltimore Ravens select Terrance Marshall Jr. (WR/LSU) Marshall is a big, fast outside receiver, which is arguably the position most lacking for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson needs guys to throw to and especially guys who can get downfield. Offensive tackle is certainly a consideration after Baltimore traded Orlando Brown Jr. for this pick, but the board has shook out in a way where I think at 58 the Ravens will be able to solidify their line with a bit of a project. And I trust this front office more than any other to select well.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Asante Samuel Jr. (CB/Florida State) No team is perfect, certainly, but Tampa is so good that they just won the Super Bowl with a 43 year old QB who has lost a significant portion of his arm strength and has the mobility of a cinder block. There’s a line of thinking that they need to look to the post-Brady era, but I’m of the mind that they need to shore up the immediate areas of weakness and one of them is CB. Samuel can play the slot if needed and provides depth at a position that had a topsy-turvy 2020. The re-signing of Antonio Brown made this a no-brainer to me.

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The next QB off the board should be Kellen Mond, who is built in the Dak Prescott mold. He’s got an incredible arm and good size. Someone of the Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago group of teams who missed out on one of the five should target Mond in the middle of the 2nd round.

It was hard to find a spot for one of the running backs in this draft. It’s simply the nature of the NFL. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams would all have been first rounders in the past. Any one of the three could easily be an Offensive Rookie of the Year in the right scheme, especially Williams who I think will catch a lot of people off guard.

The only receiver who I have falling is Rashod Bateman who was just too inconsistent for me at Minnesota. He’s not particularly big, nor is he particularly fast. He’s a good route runner, but we saw what being a good route runner can get you in the NFL in Jerry Jeudy last year. I want guys who can get themselves open and with guys like Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney, Bateman slips to round 2. He should still be a productive enough receiver in the NFL, but he isn’t going to be a star.

My second round (and later) wideouts to watch are Rondale Moore, who will be used as a gadget guy because he’s basically my size, D’Wayne Eskridge another in the mold of Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney who is being overlooked, I’d imagine, because he played college in Kalamazoo, and Tylan Wallace who is a physical wideout for his size and with the right team looks to be a long-term star in the slot.

I’ll be very interested to see who drafts Gregory Rousseau, a giant edge rusher from Miami who sat out the 2020 season and has seen his draft stock slip significantly. He’s a freak in the mold of Calais Campbell, but I think that kind of size will scare off some teams into thinking he won’t have the speed to be a productive rusher in the NFL.

I’ll probably have more thoughts on Twitter @jason_botelho. Enjoy the Draft.