Did you miss Round 1? Why do you have more important things in your life? Why do you hurt me so much?

Sorry! It’s hard to find a good therapist in Los Angeles. On to the matchups:

AFC

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 9. Joe Burrow (CIN)

Gut reaction is to immediately take Allen. So you go searching for edges that Burrow might have. Youth? Well, despite being drafted two years after Allen, Burrow was actually born in the same year as him. Burrow does have a Super Bowl appearance, while Allen has yet to reach the conference championship. But Josh Allen wasn’t part of the Buffalo defense that allowed Kansas City to drive into field goal range in 13 seconds in the greatest game ever played. Tools? Well, every tool that Burrow has, Allen has even more of. Burrow can scramble a bit. Allen, meanwhile, can truck free safeties across the Canadian border in the open field. Arm strength is a check for Allen too. Accuracy is the one area where Burrow has the decided advantage. Allen, I think, is at best a 65% accuracy guy in the career aggregate, whereas Burrow is a 70%er.  I think this is not quite as clearly and obviously Allen as it might seem. That said, now that he has mostly harnessed his traits and abilities, I give him the slight edge in a seriously unfair second round matchup for Burrow.

5. Zach Wilson (NYJ) vs. 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

To be clear, Joe Burrow would unquestionably win against either QB here. I’ve already stated that Trevor Lawrence is head and shoulders beyond the other QBs in his draft class. That includes the guy selected right after him, Zach Wilson. Wilson and Lawrence have a lot of the same problems (silly mistakes), but Lawrence looks like he’s got things more figured out at this point in the process and as I’ve said before (in my 2021 mock draft) I don’t think Wilson ever figures it out.

6. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. 3. Lamar Jackson (BAL)

I did not believe my eyes that Tua was the highest rated QB in ESPN’s Total QBR metric this season. There appears to be two camps with Tua: 1.) Miami Dolphins fans who interpret any criticism of him as a slight to them personally and 2.) Rational people. I’m in the second camp. The Dolphins offense is entertaining as hell. Believe it or not, if you pair two of the NFL’s most dynamic wide receivers with one of the most creative offensive minds calling plays, the results will be fun! Wow! Now, in Tagovailoa’s defense, Miami looked a different team with Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater helming them. Mike McDaniel uses Tua’s strengths (short and intermediate accuracy) so well. Tua’s biggest weakness is, well, his weak arm. No matter what the first camp says, an underthrow is an underthrow. And Tua is prone to the underthrow. Tyreek Hill is able to hide some of the ugliness with his unrivaled ability to twist back for bad passes. In a Sunday night game against Pittsburgh, the Steelers dropped four clear and clean interceptions. I think Tua’s status as the league leader in QBR has a lot to do with the system and the skill players. Meanwhile, in Charm City, Lamar Jackson is quietly leading an offense of Mark Andrews and assorted randos towards the playoffs. And I can’t help but imagine how incredible Jackson would be in the McDaniel system that Tua is in. Lamar is absolutely frustrating at times. His accuracy is not elite and frankly, it’s not even close to elite. There will come a time where he will slow down and when he loses that elite speed, I wonder what he becomes. However, he’s 25 years old. That time isn’t nigh. Much like the Allen vs. Burrow matchup, talent and attributes win out here.

7. Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

I think there’s a case to be made that there are five AFC QBs who are better than the best NFC QB. Justin Herbert is one of those five. His detractors, amplifying in size and volume as they are, will point to his statistical regression in 2022. I would simply remind them that he’s playing in the most conservative passing offense in football and that he’s been playing through a rib injury. He’s still on pace to throw for a hair under 4,500 yards and 30 TDs. If that’s regression…cool? He’s still 24. He’s still 6’6”. And he’s far from playing in the ideal offensive scheme for his abilities. All of this to say, I’m still a Herbert stan, I think he’s the third or fourth best QB in the AFC and he gets absolutely boat-raced by Patrick Mahomes in this matchup.

NFC

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 8. Desmond Ridder (ATL)

Here, we are comparing a person who has never taken an NFL snap against the QB of the League’s only undefeated team. This is not a particularly interesting matchup. Until we have any idea what Desmond Ridder is, he can’t beat out a dynamic weapon like Hurts.

5.  Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 13. Kyler Murray (ARI)

This is the only truly compelling 2nd round matchup in the NFC. I touched upon Kyler Murray’s bad coaching in Round 1. But let’s look at Murray. This is his fourth NFL season, all of them with the same offense. He’s on target to finally, albeit barely, eclipse the 4,000 yard passing mark. In Dak Prescott’s fourth NFL season, he hit 4,900 passing yards. “But Kyler is such an electric runner,” you say to your phone. Sure. Other than Lamar Jackson, no other QB has as much pure speed as Kyler. That said, he’s a bit reckless with the ball. In 33 fewer NFL games, Murray has fumbled 8 more times than Prescott. And Dak is no slouch when he needs to run, averaging about a yard per carry less than Kyler. The only question mark with Dak, for me, is his health. Since 2020, he’s played in just 24 of Dallas’ 41 games.It’s a risky gamble, but I’m willing to take it on a guy who has been a more consistently good performer in the NFL. Give me Dak.

11. Jameis Winston (NO) vs. 14. Justin Fields (CHI)

There’s enough about Justin Fields that is deeply intriguing that it’s hard to give up on him just 1 ½ seasons into his career. He has at times looked maddingly poor, but how much of that is to blame on bad coaching, shoddy offensive line play, and the worst set of skill position players in the NFL? He’s shown enough flashes of brilliance that I’ll take that over a Jameis Winston 30/30 season. 

7.  Trey Lance (SF) vs. 2. Kirk Cousins (MIN)

The answer is Kirk Cousins. You know the answer is Kirk Cousins. You don’t want the answer to be Kirk Cousins because he’s not terribly athletic, he’s dorky, he manages to throw a dozen avoidable interceptions every season, and he is paid very handsomely. You are inclined to loathe Kirk Cousins, the patriarch of all mediocre white men. Everyone rags on Kirk. I rag on Kirk. Trey Lance would be fortunate to provide the production that Kirk Cousins has over his career. The 49ers took a massive swing on Lance. I’ll stand in the box and take my walk with Kirk to the 3rd round. 

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up the whole thing. Patrick Mahomes will win, but swing by anyway please.