It’s the most wonderful time of the year. School is winding down. The days are getting longer. I can ride my bike without dressing like a Himalayan spelunker. And I won’t have to read about prospects taking “Top 30” visits, a new item in the NFL Draft parlance that I hope doesn’t reappear in 2024 (not least of which because there are 32 teams in the NFL). 

I’ve been prepping in earnest for this post, truly the only consistent piece of Mid-Atlantic Bias content, since late January. I watched the Senior Bowl practices. I watched the entirety of the NFL Draft combine. I’ve read. I’ve listened. I’ve watched YouTube videos. And in the process, I’ve formed strong to medium-strong opinions about approximately 75 prospects who I’ll never meet, will have no impact on my life, nor will I have been paid to study. We’ve all got hobbies. 

If you’ve read this post before, you know the drill. If not, a simple refresher: I make each pick as though I’ve been named GM for a day for each NFL team picking in the first and second round. So it’s a mix of what I perceive to be each teams’ need, value for the selection, and who I think is the best player at each position. I lean heavily towards need over “best available” in most cases, which is why a few guys who I’d actually rate in the overall top 31 slip to round 2. Don’t worry, round 2 is just a list. Of note, Miami had their first round pick taken away as a result of their Tom Brady tampering.

1. Carolina Panthers (via Chicago) select CJ Stroud (QB/Ohio State)

Stroud is the surest thing at QB in this draft. This is not to blame Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but I think they’ve really warped peoples’ brains when it comes to the QB position. The knock I have seen on Stroud for months now is that he didn’t use his legs enough at Ohio State. Keep in mind, he was a 72% and 66% passer in the two years he started, playing with essentially an NFL all-pro team at wide receiver. It’s foolish to me that people are knocking Stroud for what he hasn’t shown, as though he’s not adaptable and as though he needed to run at Ohio State. His red flag, if you can call it that, is fixable, if needed. But not every QB needs to be Woody Dantzler. In the moments when Stroud did run, he looked plenty athletic.  Carolina needs a steady hand on Day 1 because they’re a division contender in an extremely weak NFC South. Stroud is the most accurate QB in this Draft at all three levels. He should step in seamlessly on Day 1 and be Carolina’s starter for at least 5 years (the length of a rookie contract). He’s not going to be Patrick Mahomes, but if you go around waiting for Patrick Mahomes, you end up with a lot of years of PJ Walker. 

2. Houston Texans select Bryce Young (QB/Alabama)

Young (and Stroud before him) should be considered the steady hands in this draft at the QB position (I’d also include Hendon Hooker albeit with a much lower ceiling than Stroud and Young). Houston is starved for steady leadership at QB. They thought they had it with Deshaun Watson until they absolutely didn’t. And I guess they had it in Matt Schaub, but he was more of the medium floor-type of QB. Young can be a really good QB at the pro level. I actually think he could be elite, but a lot of things would have to go right to get there.. Young wasn’t as statistically accurate as Stroud and isn’t as objectively accurate, but he also made more throws under pressure and to much lower quality  receivers in 2022. He moves really well in the pocket. His arm is strong enough. And he’s quick. The glaring red flag for Young is his height. And it’s bright, blood red.  He’s 5’10”. The list of 5’10” QBs to be Pro Bowl caliber QBs in the NFL is extremely short (PUNS). I love Young’s makeup. I love his toughness. The touch on his passes is beautiful. And he can move in the pocket better than anyone in this class. He’s also an easily marketable player. But I do have some reservations about taking him second. If he goes second, he’ll be in an offense that will scheme him well (the Kyle Shannahan system). That will be essential for him to reach his potential, because you can’t fix short. 

3. Arizona Cardinals stand outside of the NFL Draft approaching every single person like a ticket scalper, screaming “Number 3 overall pick! I got it! You want it!”

What an absolutely atrocious position to be in. Every single team knows Arizona is desperate to trade back here. Sure, they could draft Will Anderson Jr. and have a potential Day 1 Defensive Rookie of the Year and high-end 10 year NFL starter at EDGE. But, my god, this roster is empty and given the rumors of them trading DeAndre Hopkins, could become more barren. The worst thing that could have happened to Arizona was Chicago trading with Carolina so early because it eliminated one team from the possibility of moving up. Left are Indianapolis, who picks next and can’t be that eager to trade future capital to move up one spot, Las Vegas (7), but then they’re kind of undermining the Garoppolo signing if they draft a QB at 3 (gestures to Trey Lance), and Tennessee (11), but does Arizona want to move back that far? Same goes for Washington, Detroit’s second first rounder, and Tampa Bay.  I’ve never proposed a trade in a mock draft, but this is the closest I’ve come. If I was Indianpolis, I’d find out the price to move up one spot. I would not give up a future first. I’d also be hesitant to give up pick 35, knowing I wouldn’t have a pick between 3 and the mid-70s. I would trade my third rounder this year, a fifth, and a second next year. But, we don’t do trades, so…

Arizona selects Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE/Alabama)

There’s not a lot to say about Anderson. No nits to pick. He’s everything you want in a modern edge rusher. He’s a 3-down guy. He’s twitchy. He’s great in pursuit. He can defend the run. Day 1 starter. Maybe even Day 1 Pro Bowler. 

4. Indianapolis Colts select Anthony Richardson (QB/Florida)

I’ve been in love with this fit since the Combine when Anthony Richardson measured off-the-charts, but also looked mechanically fine throwing the football. No other QB has anywhere near this ceiling. And Shane Steichen is the perfect coach for Richardson’s skill set because of what he did in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts who is nowhere near the absolute physical god that Richardson is. Don’t get me wrong, Richardson is nigiri raw. Picking him 4th goes against everything I think I’ve ever written about QBs. He was truly awful at times in college. But Indianapolis would be utterly insane to pass him up. The offense he ran at Florida was uncreative and the Gators really lacked for talented skill position player. Still, Richardson showed flashes and the flashes he showed at Florida cannot be taught. His open-field running ability can’t be taught. He’s Cam Newton’s running and Jeff George’s legendary arm merged into one being, which is, I think, Daunte Culpepper in his prime.  I cannot see a scenario where he starts Week 1 in 2023. Things would have either gone extremely well in training camp or horrifically bad. This isn’t a team that should be trying to win anything in 2023. There’s a lot of roster to build here. Best to let Gardner Minshew game-manage the bulk of the season and maybe hand over the reins to Richardson in Week 14 if he looks ready. But come 2024, I think Indy will be able to check off the most important box in roster construction, QB1. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver) select Tyree Wilson (EDGE/Texas Tech)

If you follow this stuff even half as closely as I do, you’ll notice the elephant in the room. It’s not the Seahawks taking the really unpolished but wildly talented Wilson at 5. It’s the Seahawks NOT taking Jalen Carter, the consensus best or second-best prospect, on the field, in this draft (with Anderson). I’ll get into those details when Carter gets drafted in a moment. For me, Wilson is a great pick for the Seahawks because he fills an absolute pressing need and because they have two first round draft picks. I always say, if you’ve got two firsts, take a big swing, especially if you were a playoff team the year prior. The need for an edge rusher isn’t apparent statistically, as Seattle took down the opposing QB 45 times in 2022, good for the top ⅓ in the NFL. The issue is more that Seattle struggled to get consistent pressure on the opposing QB. A lot of that has to do with the talent level on their line and on their edge. Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor led the team with 9 ½ sacks, but neither player really profiles as a star at the position. Both would be really nice depth players in fact. Wilson reminds me a good deal of last year’s first overall pick, Travon Walker. Technique-wise, he’s not going to wow anybody. His game is anything but refined. But he’s an electric player in pursuit. And he’s also an able tackler in the run game. He’s not strictly a third down pass rush specialist. His upside is enormous, his college production was great, and his measurables are ideal. And, as an added bonus, he didn’t leave a teammate for dead at the scene of an auto accident. 

6. Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams) select Devon Witherspoon (CB/Illinois)

If Will Anderson isn’t on the board for Arizona at 3, I think Witherspoon should be the pick (in fact he was my 3rd overall pick prior to the Bears trading out of number 1). I think Detroit telegraphed what they’re going to do with this pick a little bit when they recently traded former top 5 pick Jeff Okudah to Atlanta for pennies on the dollar. Detroit needs a CB1. They’ve signed Emmanuel Mosley and Cam Sutton in free agency, both of whom are really good players, but not guys who you feel comfortable putting on Justin Jefferson without a lot of help. Witherspoon allowed a ridiculous 35% completion percentage on targets to his coverage in 2022. And as good as he is in the pass game, he brings a safety’s mentality to open-field tackling. Witherspoon does not shy away from contact like a lot of corners. If you’re running towards him, he is going to try to hurt you. And if you’re passing toward him, good luck.

7. Las Vegas Raiders select Jalen Carter (DI/Georgia)

If I can be glib for a moment, is there a better NFL team to draft an incredibly talented player with no regard for human life, especially while driving? Look, I usually shy away from the “character issue” things. I don’t care about a football player smoking weed. I can look past public intoxication in most instances. Petty shit is petty shit. And in most cases, marijuana possession and public intoxication arrests are racially influenced.  But what Jalen Carter did isn’t petty. It’s unique in a particularly heinous way. He pled no contest to reckless driving and street racing charges in an incident where he left the scene of an accident where his teammate died. I have an extremely hard time raving about a D-lineman’s versatility and pass pursuit when there’s a character flaw that big. Add to that the anonymous scout things about immaturity in general, which I usually don’t care about because it’s usually racially influenced, and I’m more than willing to let a potential all-pro talent slip. And really, if I’m any team other than Las Vegas, I might not even think all that talent is worth it. 

8. Atlanta Falcons select Nolan Smith (EDGE/Georgia)

Some would see this as a reach (if anybody actually “saw” this labor of love), but I think Smith is perfect in this scenario. The Falcons played 17 games last year. They sacked the opposing QB 21 times. Only the Chicago Bears (picking next) had fewer and that’s part of what makes this pick essential for Atlanta. First, 21 sacks in 17 games is statistically abysmal. The Bengals were the fourth worst team in terms of sacking the QB and they did it 30 times. Second, they should absolutely keep Smith from Chicago. Smith is very much a prospect, but he has such huge upside. This is a 238 pound EDGE who ran a sub 4.4 40-yard dash. And it’s not like he’s come out of nowhere. He was arguably the top high school recruit in his class. What’s working against him, I think, is that he was injured for Georgia’s 2022 title march with a torn pectoral. What others might  see as a reach, I see as value and need for Atlanta. And it makes the Bears’ decision much easier.

9. Chicago Bears (via Carolina) select Paris Johnson Jr. (OT/Ohio State)

When people talk about the NFL being a passing league, they’re usually talking about the QB position or the WR position, but key to the ability to pass is the ability to protect the passer. Chicago has not been able to do that and it has slowed Justin Fields’ development as a result, to the point that insane people have suggested they should have kept the first overall pick and drafted a new QB to play behind a five-man mesh strainer.. Johnson puts an end to that. There are a few potential offensive linemen who could go in this spot, but I lean Johnson because he is a surefire, day 1, left tackle. He has every measurement you could want in a left tackle prospect. And if, for whatever reason, LT doesn’t work out, he’s played inside at guard too (protecting Justin Fields). And could probably move to RT. Really, on an offensive line this bad, you’ll take Johnson at any position he’d like to play. . 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans) select Peter Skoronski (OL/Northwestern)

I’m listing Skornski as an offensive lineman rather than an offensive tackle not as a slight to him but a nod to his status as the ultimate flexible lineman in this draft. He played LT at Northwestern, but his body type (short-ish arms) and measurables lean more inside in the NFL. For Philadelphia, this is a pick for today but also the future. Their offensive line is aging, almost across the board. Skoronski is flexible enough to fill in anywhere in 2023 (he was a center in high school), and move to his best overall position in 2024 and beyond.

11. Tennessee Titans select Broderick Jones (OT/Georgia)

This is the offensive line portion of our proceedings. The Titans enter the 2023 NFL Draft with a lot of question marks. They likely would have wanted to see more (something?) from 2022 draftee Malik Willis. He was, however, extremely bad while spelling an injured Ryan Tannehill. This must leave the Titans believing QB is a need in their immediate future, as Tannehill is set to turn 35 and carries an insignificant dead cap hit if and when Tennessee chooses to move on from him after 2023. In this immediate spot, Will Levis is on the board. And we’ll have a lot more on him later (needless to say I am not a big fan). Tennessee could trade up, but this is a roster with a lot of age and a lot of needs. Moving draft capital to take a big swing on Anthony Richardson feels a little too daring. So here’s Tennessee taking Jones, a prototypically sized but exceptionally athletic left tackle. He should be a Week 1 starter on the blind side of Tannehill. 

12. Houston Texans (via Cleveland) select Lukas Van Ness (EDGE/Iowa)

This is a scenario where I would usually get the team with two first round picks the best available player on the board, but cornerback isn’t a pressing need. We’ve still not seen a wide receiver off the board and I also thought about Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer here, but this is team that really struggles to get to the opposing QB and in a class with a handful of really good first round EDGE guys and then a big fall-off, now feels like the right time to take Van Ness, an EDGE with some flexibility to his game. I think he’s a guy who can play on all 3 downs and be successful regardless of scheme, having played all over the D-line at Iowa. 

13. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets) select Michael Mayer (TE/Notre Dame)

Okay, this is a far enough fall for a really good tight end prospect. Mayer is a perfect modern tight end. His catch radius is “everything, everywhere.” He can line up outside. He can line up inside. He does it all including block. He doesn’t have elite skills, but he’s a good-framed, sure-handed pass catcher, which is the perfect thing to provide a wildly inexperienced QB (Jordan Love) taking over for a first-ballot Hall of Famer.  

14. New England Patriots select Christian Gonzalez (CB/Oregon)

What do you get the team that needs everything??? How about a potential star at corner? This roster is more in line with the teams picking in the top 8 than it is here. Wide receiver is a big need, but my top rated receiver isn’t a good fit here. This would have been a good spot for Mayer, but he’s gone and the Patriots took a flier on Mike Gesicki in free agency, hoping he wasn’t ruined by Mike McDaniel. Offensive line is an issue, but I’m really not high on any of the prospects here. So we move to secondary where there are plenty of live bodies but plenty of questions if any of them, aside from Kyle Dugger, are actually any good. Gonzalez is much closer to Devon Witherspoon than this slide would indicate. He’s a true CB1, with solid production on a terrible Colorado defense (before his transfer to the Ducks) and ideal measurements for the position. I could legitimately see Gonzalez go in the top 10 on Thursday.  Of course, given that and their history, get ready for New England to alert everyone to the existence of an overlooked long-snapper from an NAIA school. 

15. New York Jets (via Green Bay) Darnell Wright (OT/Tennessee)

Well, the Aaron Rodgers trade made this much more challenging. Before the trade happened, I had the Jets taking Christian Gonzalez, creating two separate islands where pass catchers would go to die (metaphorically!). Sliding down two spots leaves the Patriots with the choice between iffy O-line guys and a really good outside, man corner. Easy choice. So do the Jets want an iffy offensive line guy here knowing they’ve traded their second round pick to Green Bay and won’t have a choice of any of the third tier guys? Probably not. And so here I have the Jets taking a guy whose ceiling is solid RT with the 15th overall pick. I think if the question comes down to Wright vs. Anton Harrison of Oklahoma, who is a LT, in this situation I lean Wright. Mekhi Becton showed the briefest of glimmers before injury and/or apathy derailed his career. The Jets need a guy who can come in on day 1 without question marks and fill a role on the line, even if his ceiling isn’t as high. This team is in “win immediately” mode. To do that, sometimes you need to suck it up and hit a single rather than look for the homer that might lead to a strikeout.

16. Washington Commanders select Deonte Banks (CB/Maryland)

I’ve done 3 mock drafts for my own record-keeping and given Washington three different players. First, back in January, I mocked Devon Witherspoon here. In the next one, it was Brian Branch. And in the most recent one, two weeks ago, it was Michael Mayer. And now, here’s Banks who edges out tight end Dalton Kincaid, who I don’t think profiles well with what should be a fairly conservative offense under Jacoby Brissett (no that is not a typo and yes that is a knock on Sam Howell and yes that is a nod to the very underrated, extremely efficient Brissett). Banks gives the Commandos a true CB1 (from Baltimore, who attended the University of Maryland), whereas Branch’s role is more of a slot corner. Banks had probably the most impressive NFL Combine of any corner, running a 4.35 40. He’s long and extremely athletic and should be an early season starter for Washington who is extremely thin in terms of corner talent.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers select Anton Harrison (OT/Oklahoma)

On the other end of the spectrum from Washington, I mocked Joey Porter Jr. to Pittsburgh in every single pre-post mock, but my word, this team needs to take a swing at building some kind of offensive line, which they absolutely did not do in free agency. I’m not even particularly high on Harrison, as previously mentioned, but he’s the best true left tackle prospect left and the Steelers really need live bodies who can protect Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh is not in anywhere near a “win now” mode. They can take their time with Harrison and hope he reaches his ceiling of “good LT.”  As of today, the only left tackle on the Steelers roster is 2021 4th round pick Dan Moore Jr. They have to build depth on the OL and stop ignoring perhaps the most important positional group in football. 

18. Detroit Lions select Kalijah Cancey (DT/Pittsburgh)

This is the ultimate home run swing for a team that is way ahead of schedule in terms of rebuild. With two first round picks, Detroit can afford to draft at a position of need (IDL) and do so with a prospect whose athletic traits defy everything we know about size. There are plenty of Aaron Donald parallels with Cancey. He’s really undersized for a true NT in a 3-4, but he’s perfect as an interior pass rusher in a 4-man front. Cancey ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at the Combine. And that explosivity shows on the tape. There will be questions about his effectiveness in the run game, but there are also questions about Aaron Donald’s effectiveness in the run game and they won’t matter when he’s a first-ballot hall of famer. I’m not saying Cancey is going to be that, but the traits are there for him to be a pro bowl-caliber pass-rushing  force up front for a team that is building a really imposing defense. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select O’Cyrus Torrence (OT/Florida)

Here is the first spot where I *considered* Will Levis. Tampa is on track to enter training camp with Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield battling it out for their starting QB job, which is not exactly inspiring. My thinking with this selection is that the Bucs should focus on shoring up an aged, declining offensive line with a really great interior prospect. Yes, it’s boring. But roster-building should sometimes be boring. Torrence was a force at the Senior Bowl practices. Honestly, I could have just watched him overpower rushers in practice drills on an infinite loop. Guards are extremely undervalued in my opinion and this notion that they’re not worth first round picks is extremely wrong. Torrence is extremely big and extremely physical. Rather than using this pick on a QB who I think has a very limited ceiling, Tampa can fill other needs in the hopes of landing a real QB prospect in the 2024 Draft. 

20. Seattle Seahawks select Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR/Ohio State)

Okay, I’ll stop being cute and we’ll have a wide receiver get drafted. JSN is a great fit for Seattle who could really use a reliable slot guy to pair with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. In real life, I don’t necessarily think the first WR goes at pick 20, but the position is extremely deep this year, albeit with more role players than true stars. In other words, there are a lot of Tobias Harrises and no Joel Embiids. Teams are going to draft for specific need at wideout because the game-changing upside is really not there with many prospects, outside of Quentin Johnson, who is a true outside receiver, just one who doesn’t actually catch the football well. JSN is a great route-runner with sure hands. He’s not going to wow anybody and is in fact, not my favorite receiver in this Draft. But in terms of fit, he’s great here.

21. Los Angeles Chargers select Bijan Robinson (RB/Texas)

Yes, you can use a first round pick on a running back. Yes, you should only do it when it’s a generational type prospect. Yes, Robinson very well might be that. He has every single tool in his bag. Maybe you’d like him to be a better pass blocker, but also maybe you can find something bad to say about Zendaya. The Chargers are not without need. They lack speed on offense and I’ve consistently mocked Zay Flowers to them, but I’ve also consistently mocked Bijan earlier than this. With the likelihood that the Chargers move on from Austin Ekeler, I think it’s very wise to get 5 years of relatively inexpensive control over a 3-down, integral part of your offense. As I said above, the wide receiver group at this Draft is very deep with role players. The Chargers can find speed later on. For now, you draft the guy who scouts say is a better Saquon Barkley (who was drafted 2nd overall in 2018).

22. Baltimore Ravens select Joey Porter Jr. (CB/Penn State)

I am very much here for my own self-created story of the Ravens drafting the son of a Steelers… (what’s a step below “great,” “icon,” and “legend”?). Porter is a work in progress but could develop into a pro bowler at the position. He’s a really big corner who will win battles at the point of attack. In zone coverage he could be a liability. But one-on-one, he’s going to out-physical a lot of NFL receivers. I’m taking him here because the Ravens really need to be better in pass defense and the rotating cast of aged characters in the secondary just isn’t a sustainable long-term plan for success. Nor is alienating your former MVP quarterback, but hey, what do I know? 

23. Minnesota Vikings select Brian Branch (CB/Alabama)

Corner has been a need for the Vikings since football was invented in 1973 by John C. Football. They drafted Andrew Booth Jr. in the 2nd round last year and he was really up and down, just without the ups. He played in just 6 games, made 12 total tackles and defended 0 passes. They added Byron Murphy in free agency. He defended four passes (0 INTs) last year. Then there’s Akayleb Evans. He also had 0 INT last year. And then there’s JoeJuan Williams who they signed from the Patriots who, you guessed it, had 0 INT last year. So productivity is a real problem for Minnesota. Enter Brian Branch who profiles more as a nickel back than a true outside corner, but my word, the Vikings should just take anybody who can cover an opposing receiver. 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars select Myles Murphy (EDGE/Clemson)

Perhaps drafting a very high-upside, but very risky EDGE in the first round in two consecutive drafts isn’t the best way to do player personnel, but Jacksonville is in a pretty good place with their roster. I think if Murphy is off the board, and nearly all of the WRs are available, they should look in that direction. But I don’t want to pass up on Murphy’s upside especially while this roster is in good shape and their division is in shambles. The idea of being able to line up Travon Walker on one end and Myles Murphy on the other is silly stuff. There’s so much speed with Walker and there’s so much potential for physicality with the long-limbed Murphy, who himself doesn’t lack for speed. 

25. New York Giants select Quentin Johnson (WR/TCU)

I mentioned Johnson earlier. He’s the only true outside receiver at the top of the prospect class (Cedric Tillman of Tennessee is probably a tick below). Johnson has a lot of bad. His catching technique needs real refinement, he’s really slow at the point of attack, and he has no real route-running understanding. But every tool is there with coaching and time to see him develop into a true, number 1 receiver. I don’t think any of his problems are not fixable. It’s his catching technique (he’s a chest catcher rather than someone who can high-point) that is the biggest question mark. I think that’s extremely fixable. New York fans and the media will just need to be patient with him (ROTFL). Truly though, there’s no one else in this class at WR who checks the physical and speed boxes together like Johnson. He’s a work in progress but for a team without a real downfield threat, he could be a real weapon early on if the Giants just have him run five go-routes per game. 

26. Dallas Cowboys select Dalton Kincaid (TE/Utah)

Dallas needs pass-catching options outside of CeeDee Lamb. They brought in Brandin Cooks who is somehow still a productive receiver in the NFL, but Kincaid gives them a really different look. Think Jason Witten, if he was way more athletic but couldn’t block. Okay, that’s a very bad analogy. Kincaid is a finesse tight end. He’s not going to stay in as a sixth lineman and run block. He’s a guy who you can line up as the world’s biggest slot receiver and give you game-changing productivity. Dallas let Dalton Schultz walk, so why not bring in an even better Dalton at the same position? 

27. Buffalo Bills select Zay Flowers (WR/Boston College)

Flowers is my favorite of the receivers in this class, but again, this WR class is so specialized that I didn’t think he was a great fit until here. Buffalo is fine on the outside with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. And they’re good enough at TE with Dawson Knox. What they lack is an explosive pass-catcher from the slot and I don’t think anyone in this class is as good at that as Flowers. He is quite undersized but shockingly physical given that. And his footwork is dazzling. His routes are sharp and his speed is impressive. I loved watching him at the Combine and I think he’ll add a really fun element to Buffalo’s already dynamic offense. 

28. Cincinnati Bengals select Darnell Washington (TE/Georgia) 

It is at this point that I had my first “hmmm” moment. The Bengals immediate needs (offensive line, secondary) don’t match up well with this slot, given the prospects available. Cody Mauch (OT/North Dakota State) is a reach here, as he’s probably not a tackle in the NFL. As is Emmanuel Forbes (CB/Mississippi State) or Cam Smith (CB/South Carolina). So why not give a really good football team the most interesting prospect in this NFL Draft? Washington is a unicorn. He’s a 6’7”, 264 pound tight end who ran the 40-yard at 4.64 seconds. He run-blocks like his mother is the running back. Truly, he looks like the world’s most athletic offensive tackle. And he can catch! Catch at an elite level? He’s not there yet. Washington is not Dalton Kincaid. There’s not a lot of route running for him. He is however the ultimate target inside the five yard line, whether it be as a run blocker or as a pass catcher on simple stick routes. I love what he would add to this already potent offense. Cincinnati’s offense right now is a lot of finesse (and QB sacks). Washington adds a much-needed physicality. 

29. New Orleans Saints (via San Francisco via Denver) select Bryan Bresee (DT/Clemson)

The Saints list of needs is long and this is not the place to be when you have a lot of pressing needs and just acquired a “win-now” quarterback in Derek Carr. They could really use a Michael Thomas replacement, but I don’t feel confident that that’s Jordan Addison. I like Jalin Hyatt but he feels superfluous on this roster. I toyed with Cedric Tillman as a true downfield threat to pair with Chris Olave (kind of a DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett situation). But then you look at the defensive line and it’s just not good. Cam Jordan was a very good defensive end, but he’s 33 and his production has dropped off a cliff. And he’s the best of the front 4. Bresee is a very risky prospect. On the one hand, he was the nation’s top high school recruit and was thought of at times as a top 5 NFL prospect. But a torn ACL ended his 2021 season and a kidney infection ended his 2022 season and his production as a whole was down both years from his freshman season. You’re taking a really big risk here on past upside. Honestly I don’t feel super confident that this works out for the Saints, but they’re in a really rough spot here. It would have been really good if they had a top 10 pick this season. Too bad they absurdly traded that (and a second rounder next year) to move up two spots last year before ultimately trading up again. The Saints pick again at 40 and should target a player like BJ Ojulari (a pass rusher) there. 

30. Philadelphia Eagles select Keion White (EDGE/Georgia Tech)

Brandon Graham is 35 years old and cannot keep doing this forever. Keion White has only been an EDGE, in earnest, for one season (he started his college career as a tight end before switching to pass rush after the 2020 season). In his one full season at EDGE he was extremely productive on an otherwise bad defense at Georgia Tech. This is a home run swing for Philadelphia who I mentioned earlier needed to get younger on their offensive line. Peter Skoronski was a safe pick there in my estimation. They also need to get younger on the defensive line (Fletcher Cox is 32). White can spend a year learning from Brandon Graham, spotting him on third downs here and there, and hopefully growing into his potential, which is that of an 8-10+ sack per season pass rusher.

31. Kansas City Chiefs select Jalin Hyatt (WR/Tennessee)

I mean, you’re just playing with house money if you’re Kansas City. If Hyatt hits, you’ve got a 6-foot speedster who can be a downfield threat or a catch-and-run menace. If he misses, you’re the Kansas City Chiefs. You have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and drafted so well last year that even after trading your all-world WR1, you still won the Super Bowl. The Chiefs receiving corps is a hodge-podge right now. You have Marquez Valdez-Scantling who is, in theory, an outside X guy but is extremely unreliable as a pass catcher. And then there’s Kadarius Toney who is more of a gadget guy. And they drafted Skyy Moore last year for whom the jury is still very much deliberating. Hyatt is not a gadget guy. He can be an every down receiver in the NFL with the ability for explosivity on every down. His route running will need to improve and the learning curve could be larger, given that he won’t be playing in Josh Heupel’s weirdo offense at Tennessee. But I like him more than the not-particularly athletic Jordan Addison or the very small Josh Downs. Combinations of size and speed like Hyatt’s are rare. When you’re as good as Kansas City, you can’t pass up that opportunity. 

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And now, a (lot of) word(s) on rocket-armed white QBs: 

If you follow *gestures* this stuff at all, you’ll notice that Will Levis isn’t drafted in my first round despite going as high as 2 in some mocks. That is not a mistake. During the Ole Miss/Kentucky game this year, the ESPN broadcast noted that Todd McShay had heard that NFL talent evaluators valued his “intangibles” more than Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. This anecdote infuriated me. First, “intangibles” is NFL talent evaluator code for “whiteness.” NFL talent evaluators valued how white Will Levis is, versus Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, who are not white. There is no objective universe where someone could watch Bryce Young and Will Levis and conclude that Levis possessed the superior intangibles. Does Levis have a stronger arm than Young? Absolutely. Is he bigger than Young? Objectively, yes. But intangibles? 

It’s an embarrassing bit of old school NFL bullshit that we should have long-since dismissed as pure, 100%, Grade A racial bias. It should never make an ESPN broadcast, especially when the QB with the so-called “superior intangibles” is losing 22-19 to Ole Miss, while completing just 18 passes and getting sacked three times to the tune of a 44.6 QBR. Levis was outplayed that day by Jaxson Dart, who is currently 2nd or 3rd on the Ole Miss QB depth chart after transfer portal season. Dart showed far more pocket presence in that game and a superior ability to improvise under pressure. Levis, in that game and throughout his college career, showed an almost impressive ability to let pockets collapse around him. He took far too many dumb hits and as a result, played hurt a lot. And yes, he was playing behind a terrible offensive line with mediocre, at-best, skill position players. But that’s even more reason to be quicker with decision-making. And it’s not like the NFL game slows down because your offensive line is better. For a guy that even I can see has processing issues, Levis is going to really struggle to get up to NFL speed. Hell, Levis is a guy who could not beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State. If you’ve ever watched Sean Clifford play QB, you’ll understand how ridiculous that is. 

Levis’ measurables are great. He’s 6’4” and very muscly, and can throw a football very far. But those aren’t intangibles. He’s also, generously, not a very accurate QB. His 2022 completion percentage of 65% belies what shows up on tape. Per PFF, nearly ¼ of all of Levis’ pass attempts were thrown on screens or checkdowns behind the line of scrimmage. This is a guy who put up a 17.0 QBR against VANDERBILT. 

I am not, in any way, ragging on Will Levis the human being. He has never harmed me or my loved ones. I’m simply making an argument against a very antiquated way of evaluating talent. He has largely difficult-to-fix mechanical and processing shortcomings. Is he worth a second round pick? 100%. In fact, I have him going fairly early in Round 2 (below). His size alone makes that a no-brainer. Also the salary commitment makes it a no-brainer. Would I draft him over Hendon Hooker? In most cases no, though as my Draft plays out, I do.  That decision was based entirely on what I was trying to get from my QB prospect. I think Hooker, if his knee is healed, could step into an NFL offense on Day 1 and game manage effectively. I don’t think Levis has that mental ability. He’s a gunslinger. And among gunslinging QBs, I think he’s more Ryan Leaf than Brett Favre or even Jay Cutler. 

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2nd Round presented without context or explanation

32. Pittsburgh (via Chicago) selects Drew Sanders (LB/Arkansas)

33. Houston selects Josh Downs (WR/North Carolina)

34. Arizona selects Emmanuel Forbes (CB/Mississippi State)

35. Indianapolis selects Dawand Jones (OT/Ohio State)

36. Los Angeles Rams select Mazi Smith (DT/Michigan)

37. Seattle (via Denver) selects John Michael Schmitz (C/Minnesota)

38. Las Vegas selects Cam Smith (CB/South Carolina)

39. Carolina selects Jordan Addison (WR/USC)

40. New Orleans selects BJ Ojulari (EDGE/LSU)

41. Tennessee selects Will Levis (QB/Kentucky)

42. Green Bay (via Cleveland) selects Will McDonald IV (EDGE/Iowa State)

43. New York Jets select Jack Campbell (LB/Iowa)

44. Atlanta Falcons select Jahmyr Gibbs (RB/Alabama)

45. Green Bay selects Siaki Ika (DT/Baylor)

46. New England selects Felix Anudike-Uzomah (EDGE/Kansas State)

47. Washington selects Hendon Hooker (QB/Tennessee)

48. Detroit selects Luke Musgrave (TE/Oregon State)

49. Pittsburgh selects Cody Mauch (OL/North Dakota State)

50. Tampa Bay selects Sam LaPorta (TE/Iowa)

51. Miami selects Matthew Bergeron (OT/Syracuse)

52. Seattle selects Steve Avila (G/TCU)

53. Chicago (via Baltimore) selects Tuli Tuipulotu (EDGE/USC)

54. Los Angeles Chargers select Tank Dell (WR/Houston)

55. Detroit (via Minnesota) selects Cedric Tillman (WR/Tennessee) 

56. Jacksonville selects Kelee Ringo (CB/Georgia)

57. New York Giants select Antonio Johnson (S/Texas A&M)

58. Dallas select Zach Charbonnet (RB/UCLA)

59. Buffalo selects DJ Turner (CB/Michigan)

60. Cincinnati select Keeanu Benton (DT/Wisconsin) 

61. Chicago (via San Francisco) selects Joe Tippmann (C/Wisconsin)

62. Philadelphia selects Luke Wypler (C/Ohio State)

63. Kansas City selects Blake Freeland (OT/BYU)