Author: Jason

2024 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Instead of a long intro, I’ll simply apologize to anyone who still reads these that I continue to post on this horrifyingly unattractive medium. I’ve toyed with the idea of upgrading how and where I post these but truthfully, there’s just so little traffic and I produce so little content. We could get into a therapy session about whether the lack of content is a result of the little traffic or vice versa, but you’re not my therapist. No one is! I live in Los Angeles and have Blue Cross Blue Shield.

The only differences here versus any other year is that the picks are more of a common-sense selection process than one based entirely on my own rankings. And I included trades! I used both PFF’s tool to create trades that had at least a 75% chance of approval. Here we go:

  1. Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams(QB/USC)

This is kind of a no-brainer and it would be weird and performative to slot any other player to Chicago here. Even if you don’t think Williams is the second coming of Patrick Mahomes, his floor is very high. I’d go so far as to say it’s a dialed back Andrew Luck but with more open field speed and pocket mobility. Williams makes a lot of off-platform throws and those make the highlight reels, but he’s a good and in fact extremely underrated pocket QB who might actually be excellent surrounded by better coaching and skill players than he had at USC. Anyone else here is overthinking things.

  1. Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels (QB/LSU)

Okay, we’ve moved past the no-brainer portion of the draft. I would hate to have this pick. Truly. There are so many good offensive tackles and wideouts and cornerbacks and interior defensive linemen, but you have to draft a QB here if you’re the Artist Formerly Known as the Football Team. For me, it’s either Daniels or Drake Maye and I lean Daniels, ever so slightly, because of his upside. But man, does his extremely skinny frame and reckless open-field running worry the crap out of me. 

  1. New England Patriots select Marvin Harrison (WR/Ohio State)

This might seem like a contrarian curveball but think about it: New England can take a risky QB prospect in this spot or a universally-agreed upon generational WR talent. When in the course of draft history has the risky QB pick worked out better than the generational skill position pick? It’s different for Washignton at pick 2 because they have their choice of guys. New England doesn’t have that. They have Jacoby Brissett, a more than competent NFL starting QB and a really barren roster. I’d rather build pieces and look to fill QB next year with someone like Quinn Ewers or whoever pulls a Jayden Daniels or Joe Burrow and skyrockets up draft boards. *googles “LSU 2025 starting quarterback:*

  1. TRADE (Minnesota sends both 2024 firsts, picks 166 and 167 to Cardinals for pick 4) 

Minnesota selects Drake Maye (QB/UNC)

I have resisted the urge to do trades for as long as I’ve been doing this, which is I think 16 years. But this year’s draft changes things. There’s just too much need everywhere and too many teams that are whole rosters away from competing. Perhaps no team best exemplifies that latter bit than the Arizona Cardinals, who miss out on Marvin Harrison here, but choose to slide back to 11, acquire an additional first this year (they already had an additional first), and two later round picks. In moving up, Minnesota drafts the best available QB. Maye has a big arm and great size and good mobility. He is a “system” guy and the last two UNC guys (Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell) didn’t exactly set the NFL ablaze. But Minnesota is a much better place for a rookie QB to learn on the job, with Justin Jefferson ready to catch anything thrown to him. Minnesota pays a hefty price in giving up both of their first rounders, but keep a chunk of their depth picks. 

  1. TRADE (Las Vegas sends a 2024 round 1, a 2025 round 1, 77, 112, 148 to Chargers for pick 5 and pick 69) 

Las Vegas selects JJ McCarthy (QB/Michigan)

We’ve got trade fever. Panicking that they’re going to enter 2024 with Aiden O’Connell as their QB1, Vegas makes an intra division trade with another team in need of draft assets. Now, look, I think JJ McCarthy at 1:5 is an utterly comical risk. I just don’t see where his upside is. Is there some kind of mysterious arm strength or accuracy that he’s been hiding from us? Is he about to grow a few inches? In the modern NFL Draft landscape, I don’t know that we’ve seen a QB with so little in the way of impressive statistics, at any point in his college career, move himself from “not even being talked about” to “top 5 pick.” So I’ll just say, I think the speed of the NFL will destroy JJ McCarthy and this pick will be an immense bust. But like I said, we’re doing groupthink this year.

  1. TRADE (Atlanta sends picks 8, 74, 109, 143, and 187 to Giants for 6) 

Atlanta selects Joe Alt (LT/Notre Dame)

Every ounce of chatter, every mock draft, every simulation, has Tennessee drafting Joe Alt at 1:7. So Atlanta pulls a fast one and gets the true franchise, Day 1 LT in this draft. And there are a lot of good tackles in this draft, some with extremely high upside. But Alt is the only one that has All-Pro potential. Atlanta just spent a lot of money on Kirk Cousins. They have talent at all the skill positions. It’s time for them to get serious and build a team in the trenches. They give up a bevy of picks to move up two spots but no one will question that when Alt is a multi-time Pro Bowler.

  1. Tennessee Titans select Rome Odunze (WR/Washington)

Tennessee’s consolation prize for missing out on Alt is a player who I think is the best WR in this class. Malik Nabers is faster. Marvin Harrison has a more dynamic grasp of route running. But Odunze is the most complete all-around receiver. He’s stronger than Nabers or Harrison. I like his hands better than either of the other two. And his contested-catch ability is second to none. I’m in love with him as a pro prospect. Logic and reason says that Harrison is the first receiver off the board, but for me, Odunze is a steal here for a team that is perpetually looking for a star pass catcher in his prime. 

  1. New York Giants (from Atlanta) select Malik Nabers (WR/LSU)

The Giants move back two spots, acquire 4 additional picks this year, and still get one of the big 3 WRs. Nabers is the speedster. A guy who can line up in the slot and win or a guy who can line up outside and burn. He is electrifying which is something the Giants have lacked at WR since another guy from Louisiana State University. 

  1. Chicago Bears select Byron Murphy II (DT/Texas)

The hope for most people in Chicago seems to be that one of the WRs falls to them. That doesn’t happen here, but WR is absurdly deep in this draft. Like, truly 10 impact guys deep. Chicago will have an opportunity to take whatever flavor WR they like in Round 3 or 4. Instead they get the best interior lineman in the draft, a guy who possesses insane athleticism who should benefit greatly early on from one-on-one matchups in the trenches, something he didn’t see often at Texas. 

  1. New York Jets select Taliese Fuaga (OT/Oregon State)

If the Jets don’t draft an offensive lineman in this incredibly fortuitous situation, they should also move to Las Vegas, but quit football and become a part-time bartender at a 3-star casino. Fuaga played exclusively RT at Oregon State and there was no one better in college football.

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Quinyon Mitchell (CB/Toledo)

Arizona’s roster is what NFL insiders call “gross” and “depleted” and “directionless” and “bad.” Their roster is so bad that we’ve all just assumed that Kyler Murray is a franchise QB and they shouldn’t even think about it, because my god if they spent a moment trying to replace QB, I can’t fathom how much further this roster would fall into disrepair. Anyway, that’s why I love the fake trade they made with Minnesota so much. Three first-round picks should net 3 starters on opening day. They start with Quinyon Mitchell, who set the postseason workout circuit ablaze. He’s a complete CB. A one-on-one guy who can tackle like a safety. In a division with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, this is a solid need for Arizona to address. 

  1. Denver Broncos select Dallas Turner (EDGE/Alabama)

Denver wanted to move up to draft Maye or McCarthy but they lacked the assets to do so, perhaps due in some part to the Russell Wilson debacle. So instead they stand here at 12, looking like Vincent Vega waiting on Mia Wallace…oh my god I’m so sorry, Bill Simmons just stole my ASUS laptop computer. Denver needs impact players all over the field, and here they get the top pass rusher in the draft. 

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (from Las Vegas) select JC Latham (RT/Alabama)

Moving back from 5 was key for the Chargers. Sure, they could have drafted Joe Alt and then had him draw straws with Rashawn Slater to determine who would anchor which tackle position. OR they could draft a true RT and acquire a third this season and a future first from a team that should be pretty bad in 2025. I like this scenario better. Jim Harbaugh has his principles and one of them is that offensive lines matter. Offensive line has long been a nightmare for LA’s lesser son. Problem…well, not solved, but problem…less problematic?

  1. New Orleans Saints select Troy Fautanu (LT/Washington)

If I paid Derek Carr a lot of money to play QB for my team, I sure as heck would make sure that I was protecting his blind side and doing so with someone a lot better than Trevor Penning.

  1. Indianapolis Colts select Brock Bowers (TE/Georgia)

This has to be a dream scenario for the Colts. They’re thin at pass-catcher and in Bowers they get a game-wrecking, who-knows-what-he-is pass catching dynamo. Bowers should present a lot of matchup problems for opposing defenses and should make Michael Pittman’s life (and by proxy Anthony Richardson’s) much easier. And Indianapolis didn’t have to move an inch to get their guy.

  1. Seattle Seahawks select Laiatu Latu (EDGE/UCLA)

This will be the year that the Seahawks address their anemic pass rush. No, really. I can feel it. 

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Cooper DeJean (CB/Iowa)

DeJean will either get drafted in the top 10 or will fall to the second round. Reviews are all over the place. Some people don’t think he can play CB. Some think he can but that he would be an excellent safety. Some see a special teams ace. And others think he’s the best corner in the draft. So, uh??? I think he lies between the second and fourth options there. He’s just so athletic and look, if we’re being honest, he’s a white secondary player and I think that throws a lot of people off. The Jaguars need playmakers in their secondary. If DeJean is a CB1 that’s awesome. If he’s a Pro Bowl safety? That’s cool too. If he’s even a good starter that’s also an upgrade. 

  1. Cincinnati Bengals select Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT/Penn State)

This will be the year that the Bengals address their anemic pass blocking. No, really. I can feel it.

  1. Los Angeles Rams select Amarius Mims (OT/Georgia)

This is the Rams first first-round pick since they took Jared Goff in 2016. 8 years. It’s a credit to their scouting department that they haven’t had a long-term fall off. They could go in a number of directions here, but I’d like to see them take Mims, a high ceiling, low floor right tackle. Mims had an injury-derailed final season at Georgia, which contributed to his career total of 8 starts. Still, there’s a lot to like here and it’s a worthwhile gamble for a team that’s been doing well without any opportunities to gamble.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers Terrion Arnold (CB/Alabama)

Well, they don’t need a QB…I have no idea what Pittsburgh is doing on the offensive side of the ball, so let’s give them the best available player at a position of need on defense and move on.

  1. TRADE (Tampa Bay sends 26, 89, and 125 to Miami for 21 and 198) 

Tampa Bay selects Jared Verse (EDGE/Florida State)

Sensing that they could lose out on a really good pass rusher, Tampa swaps firsts with Miami and sends a third and fourth their way to try to find an answer at EDGE. I think the jury has deliberated sufficiently on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and while he’s not a full-on bust, he’s not a game changer. Tampa is aging rapidly on defense. Verse is on paper a big upgrade over JTS.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles select Adonai Mitchell (WR/Texas)

Two years ago, the Eagles could have let the internet vote for their first round draft pick and it wouldn’t have mattered. That’s how much depth they had. Now? The margin to miss on this pick is getting pretty thin. They need to get younger on the offensive line. They need secondary depth. They could afford to replace Jordan Davis who appears to be a “some downs” lineman. Or they could put the car in 5th and drive 140 across the Walt Whitman Bridge. That’s what Adonai Mitchell is here. If he hits, you have the best WR corp in the NFL, a trio of players who can do everything you need at that position group. And if that doesn’t work, they can always send Nick Sirianni over to the other side of the Whitman to pump gas at a Sunoco. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (from Minnesota) select Jer’Zhan Newton (DT/Illinois)

Just Arizona accumulating more Day 1 starters. Newton is such a truly well-rounded interior lineman. He’s really good against the run and strong and quick enough to be an effective pass rusher. He’s a real steal this late in the first.

  1. Dallas Cowboys select Nate Wiggins (CB/Clemson)

You might look at the Dallas Cowboys and say “hey Daron Bland had all those interceptions returned for touchdown last year. The last thing they need is another cornerback. That guy is great!” and I would implore you to make a wager with me about Bland’s o/u INT number for 2024. This position group is not particularly good, counting stats aside and the absence of Dan Quinn could leave a big hole. Wiggins can play outside or in the slot and would be a pretty immediate upgrade over basically anyone on this roster outside of maybe Trevon Diggs. And even he’s pretty overrated.

  1. Green Bay Packers select Graham Barton (OL/Duke)

Barton is probably a guard at the NFL level and an elite one at that. I think teams are finally catching on that it’s actually worthwhile to take players who are elite at their positions and that it doesn’t matter if they’re an interior lineman or not. So that’s nice, because I’ve long been a believer that if you have a need and a player grades as a 7-10 year starter, you draft that player.

  1. Miami (from Tampa Bay) select Tyler Guyton (OT/Oklahoma)

Miami’s poor offensive line play has become a bit of a running gag. Guyton is in no way a sure-fire Day 1 starter. He is very inexperienced and had moments at the Senior Bowl that made me question whether he was a first round talent or even a football player at all. But they don’t teach 6’8” former D-1 H-back pretty much anywhere. Guyton was a RT for a left-handed QB in college and if you don’t see the parallel here…His game needs refinement but he’s uber-athletic and worth taking a chance on, especially when you’ve been as porous as the Dolphins have been. His upside is enormous and too good to pass up on here.

  1. Arizona Cardinals select Brian Thomas Jr. (WR/LSU)

You know, Marvin Harrison is really good. But you know what else is good? Drafting the best CB in the draft, a Day 1 interior line force, and getting the best of the second tier of WRs. Thomas is 6’3” and runs a 4.3. His game needs refinement, but for your third first round pick, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more worthwhile gamble than on this make-up succeeding in the NFL.

  1. Buffalo Bills select Xavier Legette (WR/South Carolina)

Here’s where I say “screw it, I’m taking my guy.” Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs which seems like probably addition by subtraction at this point in his career. Legette is such an exciting prospect. There’s some DK Metcalf in his build. In terms of contested-catchers, he’s close to Rome Odunze. He’s so physical, but also ran a sub 4.4 at the Combine. He’s much lower on most other boards, but we’ve reached the portion of the WR pool where you determine your WR need and you fill it accordingly. And Buffalo could use a guy like Legette more than a speedster like Xavier Worthy or a hands guy like Ladd McConkey.

  1. Detroit Lions select Darius Robinson (EDGE/Missouri)

In an effort to build the most intimidating, high-motor pass rush that the NFL has ever seen, we have Darius Robinson going to the Detroit Lions to join forces with Aidan Hutchison. Robinson isn’t in the mold of the modern NFL EDGE player. He’s more strength than speed certainly. But his strength absolutely plays. He moved around the line a bit in college but settled in nicely as a pass rusher last year, earning first team all-SEC honors.He’s in the right place for some excellent coaching. I love this fit.

  1. Baltimore Ravens select Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB/Alabama)

McKinstry is about as steady as they come at CB. He’s not going to draw a ton of DPIs. He’s not going to get badly burned by receivers. He’s kind of the perfect Baltimore Ravens guy. 

  1. San Francisco 49ers select Jackson Powers-Johnson (OL/Oregon)

JPJ is, shall we say, different. If you like your centers pulling, this guy makes Jason Kelce look like a sloth. Everything JPJ does is with the amplifier turned up to 12. Truly, if high motor guys are your thing, go watch some Oregon tape. He feels like a perfect fit on outside zone runs in the Shannahn offense. I could see him going as high as Miami at 21. He could also go as low as late in the 2nd round because really, what do I know? The one thing I do know if that I love watching Jackson Power-Johnson.

  1. TRADE (New Orleans sends 45 and a 2025 first to Kansas City for 32) 

New Orleans selects Michael Penix Jr. (QB/Washington)

Kansas City gets to probably still have their choice of WRs at 45 and they get an extra first next year. New Orleans gets to jump the gun on all the teams who missed out on QBs (Hi Denver!) Hi Giants!) trying to trade into the top of the 2nd round for Penix, Spencer Rattler, and Bo Nix. I could honestly go with any of the 3 QBs here and truthfully I think that Rattler is the best fit for New Orleans, especially if he’s going to sit for a year. You don’t need Michael Penix to sit for any amount of time behind Derek Carr. He’s got plenty of experience. But he is, to me, a hair better than Rattler or Nix, both of whom I really like as Round 2 guys and both of which I prefer to JJ McCarthy. 

And that’s it. No second round. No other guys I like (there are so many). Just a cool and breezy few thousand words. My annual proof-of-life. Thanks for checking it out.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. School is winding down. The days are getting longer. I can ride my bike without dressing like a Himalayan spelunker. And I won’t have to read about prospects taking “Top 30” visits, a new item in the NFL Draft parlance that I hope doesn’t reappear in 2024 (not least of which because there are 32 teams in the NFL). 

I’ve been prepping in earnest for this post, truly the only consistent piece of Mid-Atlantic Bias content, since late January. I watched the Senior Bowl practices. I watched the entirety of the NFL Draft combine. I’ve read. I’ve listened. I’ve watched YouTube videos. And in the process, I’ve formed strong to medium-strong opinions about approximately 75 prospects who I’ll never meet, will have no impact on my life, nor will I have been paid to study. We’ve all got hobbies. 

If you’ve read this post before, you know the drill. If not, a simple refresher: I make each pick as though I’ve been named GM for a day for each NFL team picking in the first and second round. So it’s a mix of what I perceive to be each teams’ need, value for the selection, and who I think is the best player at each position. I lean heavily towards need over “best available” in most cases, which is why a few guys who I’d actually rate in the overall top 31 slip to round 2. Don’t worry, round 2 is just a list. Of note, Miami had their first round pick taken away as a result of their Tom Brady tampering.

1. Carolina Panthers (via Chicago) select CJ Stroud (QB/Ohio State)

Stroud is the surest thing at QB in this draft. This is not to blame Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but I think they’ve really warped peoples’ brains when it comes to the QB position. The knock I have seen on Stroud for months now is that he didn’t use his legs enough at Ohio State. Keep in mind, he was a 72% and 66% passer in the two years he started, playing with essentially an NFL all-pro team at wide receiver. It’s foolish to me that people are knocking Stroud for what he hasn’t shown, as though he’s not adaptable and as though he needed to run at Ohio State. His red flag, if you can call it that, is fixable, if needed. But not every QB needs to be Woody Dantzler. In the moments when Stroud did run, he looked plenty athletic.  Carolina needs a steady hand on Day 1 because they’re a division contender in an extremely weak NFC South. Stroud is the most accurate QB in this Draft at all three levels. He should step in seamlessly on Day 1 and be Carolina’s starter for at least 5 years (the length of a rookie contract). He’s not going to be Patrick Mahomes, but if you go around waiting for Patrick Mahomes, you end up with a lot of years of PJ Walker. 

2. Houston Texans select Bryce Young (QB/Alabama)

Young (and Stroud before him) should be considered the steady hands in this draft at the QB position (I’d also include Hendon Hooker albeit with a much lower ceiling than Stroud and Young). Houston is starved for steady leadership at QB. They thought they had it with Deshaun Watson until they absolutely didn’t. And I guess they had it in Matt Schaub, but he was more of the medium floor-type of QB. Young can be a really good QB at the pro level. I actually think he could be elite, but a lot of things would have to go right to get there.. Young wasn’t as statistically accurate as Stroud and isn’t as objectively accurate, but he also made more throws under pressure and to much lower quality  receivers in 2022. He moves really well in the pocket. His arm is strong enough. And he’s quick. The glaring red flag for Young is his height. And it’s bright, blood red.  He’s 5’10”. The list of 5’10” QBs to be Pro Bowl caliber QBs in the NFL is extremely short (PUNS). I love Young’s makeup. I love his toughness. The touch on his passes is beautiful. And he can move in the pocket better than anyone in this class. He’s also an easily marketable player. But I do have some reservations about taking him second. If he goes second, he’ll be in an offense that will scheme him well (the Kyle Shannahan system). That will be essential for him to reach his potential, because you can’t fix short. 

3. Arizona Cardinals stand outside of the NFL Draft approaching every single person like a ticket scalper, screaming “Number 3 overall pick! I got it! You want it!”

What an absolutely atrocious position to be in. Every single team knows Arizona is desperate to trade back here. Sure, they could draft Will Anderson Jr. and have a potential Day 1 Defensive Rookie of the Year and high-end 10 year NFL starter at EDGE. But, my god, this roster is empty and given the rumors of them trading DeAndre Hopkins, could become more barren. The worst thing that could have happened to Arizona was Chicago trading with Carolina so early because it eliminated one team from the possibility of moving up. Left are Indianapolis, who picks next and can’t be that eager to trade future capital to move up one spot, Las Vegas (7), but then they’re kind of undermining the Garoppolo signing if they draft a QB at 3 (gestures to Trey Lance), and Tennessee (11), but does Arizona want to move back that far? Same goes for Washington, Detroit’s second first rounder, and Tampa Bay.  I’ve never proposed a trade in a mock draft, but this is the closest I’ve come. If I was Indianpolis, I’d find out the price to move up one spot. I would not give up a future first. I’d also be hesitant to give up pick 35, knowing I wouldn’t have a pick between 3 and the mid-70s. I would trade my third rounder this year, a fifth, and a second next year. But, we don’t do trades, so…

Arizona selects Will Anderson Jr. (EDGE/Alabama)

There’s not a lot to say about Anderson. No nits to pick. He’s everything you want in a modern edge rusher. He’s a 3-down guy. He’s twitchy. He’s great in pursuit. He can defend the run. Day 1 starter. Maybe even Day 1 Pro Bowler. 

4. Indianapolis Colts select Anthony Richardson (QB/Florida)

I’ve been in love with this fit since the Combine when Anthony Richardson measured off-the-charts, but also looked mechanically fine throwing the football. No other QB has anywhere near this ceiling. And Shane Steichen is the perfect coach for Richardson’s skill set because of what he did in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts who is nowhere near the absolute physical god that Richardson is. Don’t get me wrong, Richardson is nigiri raw. Picking him 4th goes against everything I think I’ve ever written about QBs. He was truly awful at times in college. But Indianapolis would be utterly insane to pass him up. The offense he ran at Florida was uncreative and the Gators really lacked for talented skill position player. Still, Richardson showed flashes and the flashes he showed at Florida cannot be taught. His open-field running ability can’t be taught. He’s Cam Newton’s running and Jeff George’s legendary arm merged into one being, which is, I think, Daunte Culpepper in his prime.  I cannot see a scenario where he starts Week 1 in 2023. Things would have either gone extremely well in training camp or horrifically bad. This isn’t a team that should be trying to win anything in 2023. There’s a lot of roster to build here. Best to let Gardner Minshew game-manage the bulk of the season and maybe hand over the reins to Richardson in Week 14 if he looks ready. But come 2024, I think Indy will be able to check off the most important box in roster construction, QB1. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver) select Tyree Wilson (EDGE/Texas Tech)

If you follow this stuff even half as closely as I do, you’ll notice the elephant in the room. It’s not the Seahawks taking the really unpolished but wildly talented Wilson at 5. It’s the Seahawks NOT taking Jalen Carter, the consensus best or second-best prospect, on the field, in this draft (with Anderson). I’ll get into those details when Carter gets drafted in a moment. For me, Wilson is a great pick for the Seahawks because he fills an absolute pressing need and because they have two first round draft picks. I always say, if you’ve got two firsts, take a big swing, especially if you were a playoff team the year prior. The need for an edge rusher isn’t apparent statistically, as Seattle took down the opposing QB 45 times in 2022, good for the top ⅓ in the NFL. The issue is more that Seattle struggled to get consistent pressure on the opposing QB. A lot of that has to do with the talent level on their line and on their edge. Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor led the team with 9 ½ sacks, but neither player really profiles as a star at the position. Both would be really nice depth players in fact. Wilson reminds me a good deal of last year’s first overall pick, Travon Walker. Technique-wise, he’s not going to wow anybody. His game is anything but refined. But he’s an electric player in pursuit. And he’s also an able tackler in the run game. He’s not strictly a third down pass rush specialist. His upside is enormous, his college production was great, and his measurables are ideal. And, as an added bonus, he didn’t leave a teammate for dead at the scene of an auto accident. 

6. Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams) select Devon Witherspoon (CB/Illinois)

If Will Anderson isn’t on the board for Arizona at 3, I think Witherspoon should be the pick (in fact he was my 3rd overall pick prior to the Bears trading out of number 1). I think Detroit telegraphed what they’re going to do with this pick a little bit when they recently traded former top 5 pick Jeff Okudah to Atlanta for pennies on the dollar. Detroit needs a CB1. They’ve signed Emmanuel Mosley and Cam Sutton in free agency, both of whom are really good players, but not guys who you feel comfortable putting on Justin Jefferson without a lot of help. Witherspoon allowed a ridiculous 35% completion percentage on targets to his coverage in 2022. And as good as he is in the pass game, he brings a safety’s mentality to open-field tackling. Witherspoon does not shy away from contact like a lot of corners. If you’re running towards him, he is going to try to hurt you. And if you’re passing toward him, good luck.

7. Las Vegas Raiders select Jalen Carter (DI/Georgia)

If I can be glib for a moment, is there a better NFL team to draft an incredibly talented player with no regard for human life, especially while driving? Look, I usually shy away from the “character issue” things. I don’t care about a football player smoking weed. I can look past public intoxication in most instances. Petty shit is petty shit. And in most cases, marijuana possession and public intoxication arrests are racially influenced.  But what Jalen Carter did isn’t petty. It’s unique in a particularly heinous way. He pled no contest to reckless driving and street racing charges in an incident where he left the scene of an accident where his teammate died. I have an extremely hard time raving about a D-lineman’s versatility and pass pursuit when there’s a character flaw that big. Add to that the anonymous scout things about immaturity in general, which I usually don’t care about because it’s usually racially influenced, and I’m more than willing to let a potential all-pro talent slip. And really, if I’m any team other than Las Vegas, I might not even think all that talent is worth it. 

8. Atlanta Falcons select Nolan Smith (EDGE/Georgia)

Some would see this as a reach (if anybody actually “saw” this labor of love), but I think Smith is perfect in this scenario. The Falcons played 17 games last year. They sacked the opposing QB 21 times. Only the Chicago Bears (picking next) had fewer and that’s part of what makes this pick essential for Atlanta. First, 21 sacks in 17 games is statistically abysmal. The Bengals were the fourth worst team in terms of sacking the QB and they did it 30 times. Second, they should absolutely keep Smith from Chicago. Smith is very much a prospect, but he has such huge upside. This is a 238 pound EDGE who ran a sub 4.4 40-yard dash. And it’s not like he’s come out of nowhere. He was arguably the top high school recruit in his class. What’s working against him, I think, is that he was injured for Georgia’s 2022 title march with a torn pectoral. What others might  see as a reach, I see as value and need for Atlanta. And it makes the Bears’ decision much easier.

9. Chicago Bears (via Carolina) select Paris Johnson Jr. (OT/Ohio State)

When people talk about the NFL being a passing league, they’re usually talking about the QB position or the WR position, but key to the ability to pass is the ability to protect the passer. Chicago has not been able to do that and it has slowed Justin Fields’ development as a result, to the point that insane people have suggested they should have kept the first overall pick and drafted a new QB to play behind a five-man mesh strainer.. Johnson puts an end to that. There are a few potential offensive linemen who could go in this spot, but I lean Johnson because he is a surefire, day 1, left tackle. He has every measurement you could want in a left tackle prospect. And if, for whatever reason, LT doesn’t work out, he’s played inside at guard too (protecting Justin Fields). And could probably move to RT. Really, on an offensive line this bad, you’ll take Johnson at any position he’d like to play. . 

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans) select Peter Skoronski (OL/Northwestern)

I’m listing Skornski as an offensive lineman rather than an offensive tackle not as a slight to him but a nod to his status as the ultimate flexible lineman in this draft. He played LT at Northwestern, but his body type (short-ish arms) and measurables lean more inside in the NFL. For Philadelphia, this is a pick for today but also the future. Their offensive line is aging, almost across the board. Skoronski is flexible enough to fill in anywhere in 2023 (he was a center in high school), and move to his best overall position in 2024 and beyond.

11. Tennessee Titans select Broderick Jones (OT/Georgia)

This is the offensive line portion of our proceedings. The Titans enter the 2023 NFL Draft with a lot of question marks. They likely would have wanted to see more (something?) from 2022 draftee Malik Willis. He was, however, extremely bad while spelling an injured Ryan Tannehill. This must leave the Titans believing QB is a need in their immediate future, as Tannehill is set to turn 35 and carries an insignificant dead cap hit if and when Tennessee chooses to move on from him after 2023. In this immediate spot, Will Levis is on the board. And we’ll have a lot more on him later (needless to say I am not a big fan). Tennessee could trade up, but this is a roster with a lot of age and a lot of needs. Moving draft capital to take a big swing on Anthony Richardson feels a little too daring. So here’s Tennessee taking Jones, a prototypically sized but exceptionally athletic left tackle. He should be a Week 1 starter on the blind side of Tannehill. 

12. Houston Texans (via Cleveland) select Lukas Van Ness (EDGE/Iowa)

This is a scenario where I would usually get the team with two first round picks the best available player on the board, but cornerback isn’t a pressing need. We’ve still not seen a wide receiver off the board and I also thought about Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer here, but this is team that really struggles to get to the opposing QB and in a class with a handful of really good first round EDGE guys and then a big fall-off, now feels like the right time to take Van Ness, an EDGE with some flexibility to his game. I think he’s a guy who can play on all 3 downs and be successful regardless of scheme, having played all over the D-line at Iowa. 

13. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets) select Michael Mayer (TE/Notre Dame)

Okay, this is a far enough fall for a really good tight end prospect. Mayer is a perfect modern tight end. His catch radius is “everything, everywhere.” He can line up outside. He can line up inside. He does it all including block. He doesn’t have elite skills, but he’s a good-framed, sure-handed pass catcher, which is the perfect thing to provide a wildly inexperienced QB (Jordan Love) taking over for a first-ballot Hall of Famer.  

14. New England Patriots select Christian Gonzalez (CB/Oregon)

What do you get the team that needs everything??? How about a potential star at corner? This roster is more in line with the teams picking in the top 8 than it is here. Wide receiver is a big need, but my top rated receiver isn’t a good fit here. This would have been a good spot for Mayer, but he’s gone and the Patriots took a flier on Mike Gesicki in free agency, hoping he wasn’t ruined by Mike McDaniel. Offensive line is an issue, but I’m really not high on any of the prospects here. So we move to secondary where there are plenty of live bodies but plenty of questions if any of them, aside from Kyle Dugger, are actually any good. Gonzalez is much closer to Devon Witherspoon than this slide would indicate. He’s a true CB1, with solid production on a terrible Colorado defense (before his transfer to the Ducks) and ideal measurements for the position. I could legitimately see Gonzalez go in the top 10 on Thursday.  Of course, given that and their history, get ready for New England to alert everyone to the existence of an overlooked long-snapper from an NAIA school. 

15. New York Jets (via Green Bay) Darnell Wright (OT/Tennessee)

Well, the Aaron Rodgers trade made this much more challenging. Before the trade happened, I had the Jets taking Christian Gonzalez, creating two separate islands where pass catchers would go to die (metaphorically!). Sliding down two spots leaves the Patriots with the choice between iffy O-line guys and a really good outside, man corner. Easy choice. So do the Jets want an iffy offensive line guy here knowing they’ve traded their second round pick to Green Bay and won’t have a choice of any of the third tier guys? Probably not. And so here I have the Jets taking a guy whose ceiling is solid RT with the 15th overall pick. I think if the question comes down to Wright vs. Anton Harrison of Oklahoma, who is a LT, in this situation I lean Wright. Mekhi Becton showed the briefest of glimmers before injury and/or apathy derailed his career. The Jets need a guy who can come in on day 1 without question marks and fill a role on the line, even if his ceiling isn’t as high. This team is in “win immediately” mode. To do that, sometimes you need to suck it up and hit a single rather than look for the homer that might lead to a strikeout.

16. Washington Commanders select Deonte Banks (CB/Maryland)

I’ve done 3 mock drafts for my own record-keeping and given Washington three different players. First, back in January, I mocked Devon Witherspoon here. In the next one, it was Brian Branch. And in the most recent one, two weeks ago, it was Michael Mayer. And now, here’s Banks who edges out tight end Dalton Kincaid, who I don’t think profiles well with what should be a fairly conservative offense under Jacoby Brissett (no that is not a typo and yes that is a knock on Sam Howell and yes that is a nod to the very underrated, extremely efficient Brissett). Banks gives the Commandos a true CB1 (from Baltimore, who attended the University of Maryland), whereas Branch’s role is more of a slot corner. Banks had probably the most impressive NFL Combine of any corner, running a 4.35 40. He’s long and extremely athletic and should be an early season starter for Washington who is extremely thin in terms of corner talent.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers select Anton Harrison (OT/Oklahoma)

On the other end of the spectrum from Washington, I mocked Joey Porter Jr. to Pittsburgh in every single pre-post mock, but my word, this team needs to take a swing at building some kind of offensive line, which they absolutely did not do in free agency. I’m not even particularly high on Harrison, as previously mentioned, but he’s the best true left tackle prospect left and the Steelers really need live bodies who can protect Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh is not in anywhere near a “win now” mode. They can take their time with Harrison and hope he reaches his ceiling of “good LT.”  As of today, the only left tackle on the Steelers roster is 2021 4th round pick Dan Moore Jr. They have to build depth on the OL and stop ignoring perhaps the most important positional group in football. 

18. Detroit Lions select Kalijah Cancey (DT/Pittsburgh)

This is the ultimate home run swing for a team that is way ahead of schedule in terms of rebuild. With two first round picks, Detroit can afford to draft at a position of need (IDL) and do so with a prospect whose athletic traits defy everything we know about size. There are plenty of Aaron Donald parallels with Cancey. He’s really undersized for a true NT in a 3-4, but he’s perfect as an interior pass rusher in a 4-man front. Cancey ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at the Combine. And that explosivity shows on the tape. There will be questions about his effectiveness in the run game, but there are also questions about Aaron Donald’s effectiveness in the run game and they won’t matter when he’s a first-ballot hall of famer. I’m not saying Cancey is going to be that, but the traits are there for him to be a pro bowl-caliber pass-rushing  force up front for a team that is building a really imposing defense. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select O’Cyrus Torrence (OT/Florida)

Here is the first spot where I *considered* Will Levis. Tampa is on track to enter training camp with Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield battling it out for their starting QB job, which is not exactly inspiring. My thinking with this selection is that the Bucs should focus on shoring up an aged, declining offensive line with a really great interior prospect. Yes, it’s boring. But roster-building should sometimes be boring. Torrence was a force at the Senior Bowl practices. Honestly, I could have just watched him overpower rushers in practice drills on an infinite loop. Guards are extremely undervalued in my opinion and this notion that they’re not worth first round picks is extremely wrong. Torrence is extremely big and extremely physical. Rather than using this pick on a QB who I think has a very limited ceiling, Tampa can fill other needs in the hopes of landing a real QB prospect in the 2024 Draft. 

20. Seattle Seahawks select Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR/Ohio State)

Okay, I’ll stop being cute and we’ll have a wide receiver get drafted. JSN is a great fit for Seattle who could really use a reliable slot guy to pair with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. In real life, I don’t necessarily think the first WR goes at pick 20, but the position is extremely deep this year, albeit with more role players than true stars. In other words, there are a lot of Tobias Harrises and no Joel Embiids. Teams are going to draft for specific need at wideout because the game-changing upside is really not there with many prospects, outside of Quentin Johnson, who is a true outside receiver, just one who doesn’t actually catch the football well. JSN is a great route-runner with sure hands. He’s not going to wow anybody and is in fact, not my favorite receiver in this Draft. But in terms of fit, he’s great here.

21. Los Angeles Chargers select Bijan Robinson (RB/Texas)

Yes, you can use a first round pick on a running back. Yes, you should only do it when it’s a generational type prospect. Yes, Robinson very well might be that. He has every single tool in his bag. Maybe you’d like him to be a better pass blocker, but also maybe you can find something bad to say about Zendaya. The Chargers are not without need. They lack speed on offense and I’ve consistently mocked Zay Flowers to them, but I’ve also consistently mocked Bijan earlier than this. With the likelihood that the Chargers move on from Austin Ekeler, I think it’s very wise to get 5 years of relatively inexpensive control over a 3-down, integral part of your offense. As I said above, the wide receiver group at this Draft is very deep with role players. The Chargers can find speed later on. For now, you draft the guy who scouts say is a better Saquon Barkley (who was drafted 2nd overall in 2018).

22. Baltimore Ravens select Joey Porter Jr. (CB/Penn State)

I am very much here for my own self-created story of the Ravens drafting the son of a Steelers… (what’s a step below “great,” “icon,” and “legend”?). Porter is a work in progress but could develop into a pro bowler at the position. He’s a really big corner who will win battles at the point of attack. In zone coverage he could be a liability. But one-on-one, he’s going to out-physical a lot of NFL receivers. I’m taking him here because the Ravens really need to be better in pass defense and the rotating cast of aged characters in the secondary just isn’t a sustainable long-term plan for success. Nor is alienating your former MVP quarterback, but hey, what do I know? 

23. Minnesota Vikings select Brian Branch (CB/Alabama)

Corner has been a need for the Vikings since football was invented in 1973 by John C. Football. They drafted Andrew Booth Jr. in the 2nd round last year and he was really up and down, just without the ups. He played in just 6 games, made 12 total tackles and defended 0 passes. They added Byron Murphy in free agency. He defended four passes (0 INTs) last year. Then there’s Akayleb Evans. He also had 0 INT last year. And then there’s JoeJuan Williams who they signed from the Patriots who, you guessed it, had 0 INT last year. So productivity is a real problem for Minnesota. Enter Brian Branch who profiles more as a nickel back than a true outside corner, but my word, the Vikings should just take anybody who can cover an opposing receiver. 

24. Jacksonville Jaguars select Myles Murphy (EDGE/Clemson)

Perhaps drafting a very high-upside, but very risky EDGE in the first round in two consecutive drafts isn’t the best way to do player personnel, but Jacksonville is in a pretty good place with their roster. I think if Murphy is off the board, and nearly all of the WRs are available, they should look in that direction. But I don’t want to pass up on Murphy’s upside especially while this roster is in good shape and their division is in shambles. The idea of being able to line up Travon Walker on one end and Myles Murphy on the other is silly stuff. There’s so much speed with Walker and there’s so much potential for physicality with the long-limbed Murphy, who himself doesn’t lack for speed. 

25. New York Giants select Quentin Johnson (WR/TCU)

I mentioned Johnson earlier. He’s the only true outside receiver at the top of the prospect class (Cedric Tillman of Tennessee is probably a tick below). Johnson has a lot of bad. His catching technique needs real refinement, he’s really slow at the point of attack, and he has no real route-running understanding. But every tool is there with coaching and time to see him develop into a true, number 1 receiver. I don’t think any of his problems are not fixable. It’s his catching technique (he’s a chest catcher rather than someone who can high-point) that is the biggest question mark. I think that’s extremely fixable. New York fans and the media will just need to be patient with him (ROTFL). Truly though, there’s no one else in this class at WR who checks the physical and speed boxes together like Johnson. He’s a work in progress but for a team without a real downfield threat, he could be a real weapon early on if the Giants just have him run five go-routes per game. 

26. Dallas Cowboys select Dalton Kincaid (TE/Utah)

Dallas needs pass-catching options outside of CeeDee Lamb. They brought in Brandin Cooks who is somehow still a productive receiver in the NFL, but Kincaid gives them a really different look. Think Jason Witten, if he was way more athletic but couldn’t block. Okay, that’s a very bad analogy. Kincaid is a finesse tight end. He’s not going to stay in as a sixth lineman and run block. He’s a guy who you can line up as the world’s biggest slot receiver and give you game-changing productivity. Dallas let Dalton Schultz walk, so why not bring in an even better Dalton at the same position? 

27. Buffalo Bills select Zay Flowers (WR/Boston College)

Flowers is my favorite of the receivers in this class, but again, this WR class is so specialized that I didn’t think he was a great fit until here. Buffalo is fine on the outside with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. And they’re good enough at TE with Dawson Knox. What they lack is an explosive pass-catcher from the slot and I don’t think anyone in this class is as good at that as Flowers. He is quite undersized but shockingly physical given that. And his footwork is dazzling. His routes are sharp and his speed is impressive. I loved watching him at the Combine and I think he’ll add a really fun element to Buffalo’s already dynamic offense. 

28. Cincinnati Bengals select Darnell Washington (TE/Georgia) 

It is at this point that I had my first “hmmm” moment. The Bengals immediate needs (offensive line, secondary) don’t match up well with this slot, given the prospects available. Cody Mauch (OT/North Dakota State) is a reach here, as he’s probably not a tackle in the NFL. As is Emmanuel Forbes (CB/Mississippi State) or Cam Smith (CB/South Carolina). So why not give a really good football team the most interesting prospect in this NFL Draft? Washington is a unicorn. He’s a 6’7”, 264 pound tight end who ran the 40-yard at 4.64 seconds. He run-blocks like his mother is the running back. Truly, he looks like the world’s most athletic offensive tackle. And he can catch! Catch at an elite level? He’s not there yet. Washington is not Dalton Kincaid. There’s not a lot of route running for him. He is however the ultimate target inside the five yard line, whether it be as a run blocker or as a pass catcher on simple stick routes. I love what he would add to this already potent offense. Cincinnati’s offense right now is a lot of finesse (and QB sacks). Washington adds a much-needed physicality. 

29. New Orleans Saints (via San Francisco via Denver) select Bryan Bresee (DT/Clemson)

The Saints list of needs is long and this is not the place to be when you have a lot of pressing needs and just acquired a “win-now” quarterback in Derek Carr. They could really use a Michael Thomas replacement, but I don’t feel confident that that’s Jordan Addison. I like Jalin Hyatt but he feels superfluous on this roster. I toyed with Cedric Tillman as a true downfield threat to pair with Chris Olave (kind of a DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett situation). But then you look at the defensive line and it’s just not good. Cam Jordan was a very good defensive end, but he’s 33 and his production has dropped off a cliff. And he’s the best of the front 4. Bresee is a very risky prospect. On the one hand, he was the nation’s top high school recruit and was thought of at times as a top 5 NFL prospect. But a torn ACL ended his 2021 season and a kidney infection ended his 2022 season and his production as a whole was down both years from his freshman season. You’re taking a really big risk here on past upside. Honestly I don’t feel super confident that this works out for the Saints, but they’re in a really rough spot here. It would have been really good if they had a top 10 pick this season. Too bad they absurdly traded that (and a second rounder next year) to move up two spots last year before ultimately trading up again. The Saints pick again at 40 and should target a player like BJ Ojulari (a pass rusher) there. 

30. Philadelphia Eagles select Keion White (EDGE/Georgia Tech)

Brandon Graham is 35 years old and cannot keep doing this forever. Keion White has only been an EDGE, in earnest, for one season (he started his college career as a tight end before switching to pass rush after the 2020 season). In his one full season at EDGE he was extremely productive on an otherwise bad defense at Georgia Tech. This is a home run swing for Philadelphia who I mentioned earlier needed to get younger on their offensive line. Peter Skoronski was a safe pick there in my estimation. They also need to get younger on the defensive line (Fletcher Cox is 32). White can spend a year learning from Brandon Graham, spotting him on third downs here and there, and hopefully growing into his potential, which is that of an 8-10+ sack per season pass rusher.

31. Kansas City Chiefs select Jalin Hyatt (WR/Tennessee)

I mean, you’re just playing with house money if you’re Kansas City. If Hyatt hits, you’ve got a 6-foot speedster who can be a downfield threat or a catch-and-run menace. If he misses, you’re the Kansas City Chiefs. You have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and drafted so well last year that even after trading your all-world WR1, you still won the Super Bowl. The Chiefs receiving corps is a hodge-podge right now. You have Marquez Valdez-Scantling who is, in theory, an outside X guy but is extremely unreliable as a pass catcher. And then there’s Kadarius Toney who is more of a gadget guy. And they drafted Skyy Moore last year for whom the jury is still very much deliberating. Hyatt is not a gadget guy. He can be an every down receiver in the NFL with the ability for explosivity on every down. His route running will need to improve and the learning curve could be larger, given that he won’t be playing in Josh Heupel’s weirdo offense at Tennessee. But I like him more than the not-particularly athletic Jordan Addison or the very small Josh Downs. Combinations of size and speed like Hyatt’s are rare. When you’re as good as Kansas City, you can’t pass up that opportunity. 

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And now, a (lot of) word(s) on rocket-armed white QBs: 

If you follow *gestures* this stuff at all, you’ll notice that Will Levis isn’t drafted in my first round despite going as high as 2 in some mocks. That is not a mistake. During the Ole Miss/Kentucky game this year, the ESPN broadcast noted that Todd McShay had heard that NFL talent evaluators valued his “intangibles” more than Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. This anecdote infuriated me. First, “intangibles” is NFL talent evaluator code for “whiteness.” NFL talent evaluators valued how white Will Levis is, versus Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, who are not white. There is no objective universe where someone could watch Bryce Young and Will Levis and conclude that Levis possessed the superior intangibles. Does Levis have a stronger arm than Young? Absolutely. Is he bigger than Young? Objectively, yes. But intangibles? 

It’s an embarrassing bit of old school NFL bullshit that we should have long-since dismissed as pure, 100%, Grade A racial bias. It should never make an ESPN broadcast, especially when the QB with the so-called “superior intangibles” is losing 22-19 to Ole Miss, while completing just 18 passes and getting sacked three times to the tune of a 44.6 QBR. Levis was outplayed that day by Jaxson Dart, who is currently 2nd or 3rd on the Ole Miss QB depth chart after transfer portal season. Dart showed far more pocket presence in that game and a superior ability to improvise under pressure. Levis, in that game and throughout his college career, showed an almost impressive ability to let pockets collapse around him. He took far too many dumb hits and as a result, played hurt a lot. And yes, he was playing behind a terrible offensive line with mediocre, at-best, skill position players. But that’s even more reason to be quicker with decision-making. And it’s not like the NFL game slows down because your offensive line is better. For a guy that even I can see has processing issues, Levis is going to really struggle to get up to NFL speed. Hell, Levis is a guy who could not beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State. If you’ve ever watched Sean Clifford play QB, you’ll understand how ridiculous that is. 

Levis’ measurables are great. He’s 6’4” and very muscly, and can throw a football very far. But those aren’t intangibles. He’s also, generously, not a very accurate QB. His 2022 completion percentage of 65% belies what shows up on tape. Per PFF, nearly ¼ of all of Levis’ pass attempts were thrown on screens or checkdowns behind the line of scrimmage. This is a guy who put up a 17.0 QBR against VANDERBILT. 

I am not, in any way, ragging on Will Levis the human being. He has never harmed me or my loved ones. I’m simply making an argument against a very antiquated way of evaluating talent. He has largely difficult-to-fix mechanical and processing shortcomings. Is he worth a second round pick? 100%. In fact, I have him going fairly early in Round 2 (below). His size alone makes that a no-brainer. Also the salary commitment makes it a no-brainer. Would I draft him over Hendon Hooker? In most cases no, though as my Draft plays out, I do.  That decision was based entirely on what I was trying to get from my QB prospect. I think Hooker, if his knee is healed, could step into an NFL offense on Day 1 and game manage effectively. I don’t think Levis has that mental ability. He’s a gunslinger. And among gunslinging QBs, I think he’s more Ryan Leaf than Brett Favre or even Jay Cutler. 

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2nd Round presented without context or explanation

32. Pittsburgh (via Chicago) selects Drew Sanders (LB/Arkansas)

33. Houston selects Josh Downs (WR/North Carolina)

34. Arizona selects Emmanuel Forbes (CB/Mississippi State)

35. Indianapolis selects Dawand Jones (OT/Ohio State)

36. Los Angeles Rams select Mazi Smith (DT/Michigan)

37. Seattle (via Denver) selects John Michael Schmitz (C/Minnesota)

38. Las Vegas selects Cam Smith (CB/South Carolina)

39. Carolina selects Jordan Addison (WR/USC)

40. New Orleans selects BJ Ojulari (EDGE/LSU)

41. Tennessee selects Will Levis (QB/Kentucky)

42. Green Bay (via Cleveland) selects Will McDonald IV (EDGE/Iowa State)

43. New York Jets select Jack Campbell (LB/Iowa)

44. Atlanta Falcons select Jahmyr Gibbs (RB/Alabama)

45. Green Bay selects Siaki Ika (DT/Baylor)

46. New England selects Felix Anudike-Uzomah (EDGE/Kansas State)

47. Washington selects Hendon Hooker (QB/Tennessee)

48. Detroit selects Luke Musgrave (TE/Oregon State)

49. Pittsburgh selects Cody Mauch (OL/North Dakota State)

50. Tampa Bay selects Sam LaPorta (TE/Iowa)

51. Miami selects Matthew Bergeron (OT/Syracuse)

52. Seattle selects Steve Avila (G/TCU)

53. Chicago (via Baltimore) selects Tuli Tuipulotu (EDGE/USC)

54. Los Angeles Chargers select Tank Dell (WR/Houston)

55. Detroit (via Minnesota) selects Cedric Tillman (WR/Tennessee) 

56. Jacksonville selects Kelee Ringo (CB/Georgia)

57. New York Giants select Antonio Johnson (S/Texas A&M)

58. Dallas select Zach Charbonnet (RB/UCLA)

59. Buffalo selects DJ Turner (CB/Michigan)

60. Cincinnati select Keeanu Benton (DT/Wisconsin) 

61. Chicago (via San Francisco) selects Joe Tippmann (C/Wisconsin)

62. Philadelphia selects Luke Wypler (C/Ohio State)

63. Kansas City selects Blake Freeland (OT/BYU)

2022 Quarterback Madness: The Madness Concludes

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Miss Round 2? Read that here. Miss Round 1? There’s a handy link at the top of the Round 2 page. Click often! It’s all about the page views in 2022.

THE MOSTLY ELITE 8

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

I showed my hand last round when I said that Joe Burrow would beat either Lawrence or Zach Wilson. Obviously Trevor Lawrence isn’t winning this matchup today. Maybe in five years, when Allen crosses into his 30s, Lawrence will be better than him. Right now though, he’s all projection. Allen is real. And he’s really good. 

3. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

This was the championship match in the 2019 iteration of this exercise, a matchup that Mahomes won. Since that time, Jackson’s statistics have regressed. His completion percentage has dropped each season. He’s throwing for fewer yards. Until this season, he was even averaging fewer yards per carry. If most of the other NFL franchises hadn’t locked up a player of Jackson’s incredible ability, I’d think they were completely insane. Baltimore has earned the right to be regarded as only mildly insane. There is no better QB out there who will be readily available this offseason, next offseason, etc. Especially given how Balitmore’s offense is set up. In a hypothetical world, Aaron Rodgers isn’t moving into this offensive scheme and experiencing a career renaissance. As for Mahomes, the clear winner here, Kansas City traded away his most explosive receiving option, replaced him with Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and he hasn’t missed a damn beat. He is so absurdly consistent. Every single year as a starter, his completion percentage has finished between 65.9 and 66.3%. He’s on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards this season. He turns absolutely nothing into something every single time he steps on the field. And yes, sometimes he does too much and gets caught. But more often than not, he’s doing something we’ve never seen before. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, the biggest frame, the fastest sprint speed, the height, etc etc. He’s just the best. Plain and simple.

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 5. Dak Prescott (DAL)

Hurts is a good example of how a QB can develop when there’s talent around him. I know that’s a “well duh” comment, but it seems like a lot of player personnel people in the NFL think you can just will a QB to be good. Hurts was inconsistent last season. There were some Eagles fans who were hoping for Gardner Minshew to take over the team. A lot can change in a year! Philly swung a huge draft night trade for Tennessee’s superstar WR AJ Brown. It’s hard to say that Brown’s presence alone accounts for Hurts’ wild ascension to MVP candidate. But it doesn’t…..oh god….hurt……… Hurts has actually regressed as a runner, averaging 2 fewer yards per carry. Where he hasn’t regressed is in passing. He’s completing 68% of his passes with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. He’s on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards and he’s not dinking and dunking. He’s averaging 8.5 yards per completion. He has been very, very good. But is he better than Dak Prescott? I don’t think Jalen has done enough to surpass Dak. This was, by far, the closest quarterfinal matchup (and the de facto NFC championship matchup). Hurts’ half season of exceptional play isn’t enough to overtake what Dak has done in his 7 seasons, which statistically speaking is basically Hurts’ 2022 season. 

14. Justin Fields (CHI) vs. 2. Kirk Cousins (MIN)

Kirk Cousins is the only QB over 30 to reach the quarterfinals. Truthfully, this says a lot more about his path here and about the youth movement at the QB position than it does Cousins. You could, theoretically, argue that Justin Fields and Trey Lance are in a similar position and given that Cousins has beaten Lance already, he should advance to the NFC championship. My counterargument goes like this: No. Fields has been in a really unforgiving situation in Chicago, for any QB, nevermind a 23 year old. I shudder to think what Kirk Cousins, a QB with 1/10th the running ability of Fields, would produce with the cast of characters Fields performs with every week. The most troubling thing for me when evaluating Fields is that his accuracy has not improved from his first season. In fact, he’s completing a marginally lower percentage of his 2022 passes while only passing for a marginally higher yard per completion number. It’s not like the Bears are running the Mike Leach Texas Tech offense. Quite frankly, I wish they were, because I think it would be easier to tell what Fields can be as a QB. If he’s a sub-60% accuracy QB with mobility, is that a franchise QB? By contrast, Lamar Jackson completed 66% of his passes in his second season, when he won the MVP. And I don’t think Fields is quite the runner that Lamar is. Working in Fields’ favor over Trey Lance is that he’s a season and a half into his career. We’ve seen flashes of what he can be. And he can be very good. Working in Fields’ favor over Cousins is that he’s 11 years his junior and so much more dynamic. 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

For as long as both guys are in the AFC, they’re going to find each other. In terms of profile alone, Allen is Super-Sized Mahomes. Bigger, faster, stronger arm, stronger in general. I mean, he’s 6’5”, 240 LBS and he’s a QB. The reason why I lean Mahomes over Allen in this, the marquee Final Four game, is that he’s more accurate with the football and when he reaches into his bag to make a highlight play, he more often than not hits. Meanwhile, Allen has the tendency to turn makable first downs into interceptions. I’m certainly picking nits here. These two are far and away the two best QBs in the NFL and number 3, whoever that is, isn’t close.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

5. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 13. Justin Fields (CHI)

This is the early Final Four game. 6:09 p.m. EST tip-off. This is another case of Prescott winning because he’s been consistently good and that matters more, at this point, than potential. 

CHAMPIONSHIP

Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. Dak Prescott (DAL)

It’s Patrick Mahomes. It was always going to be Patrick Mahomes. Dak Prescott is a good, almost underrated quarterback. When he’s healthy, he’s an absolute Top 10, probably Top 7 NFL QB. And we’ve seen runs from Dak where he hits another gear. But he’s not Mahomes. No one is. Time will tell if Joe Burrow finds another gear or Justin Fields grows into his immense potential or Justin Herbert gets an offensive coordinator who isn’t scared of him. Even when that happens, I’m not sure that any of those guys are better than Mahomes. He’s the Stephen Curry of the NFL. He’s doing things that others will mimic but no one will replicate. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime talent.

Quarterback Madness: Round 2

/ Jason / 1 Comment

Did you miss Round 1? Why do you have more important things in your life? Why do you hurt me so much?

Sorry! It’s hard to find a good therapist in Los Angeles. On to the matchups:

AFC

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 9. Joe Burrow (CIN)

Gut reaction is to immediately take Allen. So you go searching for edges that Burrow might have. Youth? Well, despite being drafted two years after Allen, Burrow was actually born in the same year as him. Burrow does have a Super Bowl appearance, while Allen has yet to reach the conference championship. But Josh Allen wasn’t part of the Buffalo defense that allowed Kansas City to drive into field goal range in 13 seconds in the greatest game ever played. Tools? Well, every tool that Burrow has, Allen has even more of. Burrow can scramble a bit. Allen, meanwhile, can truck free safeties across the Canadian border in the open field. Arm strength is a check for Allen too. Accuracy is the one area where Burrow has the decided advantage. Allen, I think, is at best a 65% accuracy guy in the career aggregate, whereas Burrow is a 70%er.  I think this is not quite as clearly and obviously Allen as it might seem. That said, now that he has mostly harnessed his traits and abilities, I give him the slight edge in a seriously unfair second round matchup for Burrow.

5. Zach Wilson (NYJ) vs. 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

To be clear, Joe Burrow would unquestionably win against either QB here. I’ve already stated that Trevor Lawrence is head and shoulders beyond the other QBs in his draft class. That includes the guy selected right after him, Zach Wilson. Wilson and Lawrence have a lot of the same problems (silly mistakes), but Lawrence looks like he’s got things more figured out at this point in the process and as I’ve said before (in my 2021 mock draft) I don’t think Wilson ever figures it out.

6. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. 3. Lamar Jackson (BAL)

I did not believe my eyes that Tua was the highest rated QB in ESPN’s Total QBR metric this season. There appears to be two camps with Tua: 1.) Miami Dolphins fans who interpret any criticism of him as a slight to them personally and 2.) Rational people. I’m in the second camp. The Dolphins offense is entertaining as hell. Believe it or not, if you pair two of the NFL’s most dynamic wide receivers with one of the most creative offensive minds calling plays, the results will be fun! Wow! Now, in Tagovailoa’s defense, Miami looked a different team with Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater helming them. Mike McDaniel uses Tua’s strengths (short and intermediate accuracy) so well. Tua’s biggest weakness is, well, his weak arm. No matter what the first camp says, an underthrow is an underthrow. And Tua is prone to the underthrow. Tyreek Hill is able to hide some of the ugliness with his unrivaled ability to twist back for bad passes. In a Sunday night game against Pittsburgh, the Steelers dropped four clear and clean interceptions. I think Tua’s status as the league leader in QBR has a lot to do with the system and the skill players. Meanwhile, in Charm City, Lamar Jackson is quietly leading an offense of Mark Andrews and assorted randos towards the playoffs. And I can’t help but imagine how incredible Jackson would be in the McDaniel system that Tua is in. Lamar is absolutely frustrating at times. His accuracy is not elite and frankly, it’s not even close to elite. There will come a time where he will slow down and when he loses that elite speed, I wonder what he becomes. However, he’s 25 years old. That time isn’t nigh. Much like the Allen vs. Burrow matchup, talent and attributes win out here.

7. Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. 2. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

I think there’s a case to be made that there are five AFC QBs who are better than the best NFC QB. Justin Herbert is one of those five. His detractors, amplifying in size and volume as they are, will point to his statistical regression in 2022. I would simply remind them that he’s playing in the most conservative passing offense in football and that he’s been playing through a rib injury. He’s still on pace to throw for a hair under 4,500 yards and 30 TDs. If that’s regression…cool? He’s still 24. He’s still 6’6”. And he’s far from playing in the ideal offensive scheme for his abilities. All of this to say, I’m still a Herbert stan, I think he’s the third or fourth best QB in the AFC and he gets absolutely boat-raced by Patrick Mahomes in this matchup.

NFC

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 8. Desmond Ridder (ATL)

Here, we are comparing a person who has never taken an NFL snap against the QB of the League’s only undefeated team. This is not a particularly interesting matchup. Until we have any idea what Desmond Ridder is, he can’t beat out a dynamic weapon like Hurts.

5.  Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 13. Kyler Murray (ARI)

This is the only truly compelling 2nd round matchup in the NFC. I touched upon Kyler Murray’s bad coaching in Round 1. But let’s look at Murray. This is his fourth NFL season, all of them with the same offense. He’s on target to finally, albeit barely, eclipse the 4,000 yard passing mark. In Dak Prescott’s fourth NFL season, he hit 4,900 passing yards. “But Kyler is such an electric runner,” you say to your phone. Sure. Other than Lamar Jackson, no other QB has as much pure speed as Kyler. That said, he’s a bit reckless with the ball. In 33 fewer NFL games, Murray has fumbled 8 more times than Prescott. And Dak is no slouch when he needs to run, averaging about a yard per carry less than Kyler. The only question mark with Dak, for me, is his health. Since 2020, he’s played in just 24 of Dallas’ 41 games.It’s a risky gamble, but I’m willing to take it on a guy who has been a more consistently good performer in the NFL. Give me Dak.

11. Jameis Winston (NO) vs. 14. Justin Fields (CHI)

There’s enough about Justin Fields that is deeply intriguing that it’s hard to give up on him just 1 ½ seasons into his career. He has at times looked maddingly poor, but how much of that is to blame on bad coaching, shoddy offensive line play, and the worst set of skill position players in the NFL? He’s shown enough flashes of brilliance that I’ll take that over a Jameis Winston 30/30 season. 

7.  Trey Lance (SF) vs. 2. Kirk Cousins (MIN)

The answer is Kirk Cousins. You know the answer is Kirk Cousins. You don’t want the answer to be Kirk Cousins because he’s not terribly athletic, he’s dorky, he manages to throw a dozen avoidable interceptions every season, and he is paid very handsomely. You are inclined to loathe Kirk Cousins, the patriarch of all mediocre white men. Everyone rags on Kirk. I rag on Kirk. Trey Lance would be fortunate to provide the production that Kirk Cousins has over his career. The 49ers took a massive swing on Lance. I’ll stand in the box and take my walk with Kirk to the 3rd round. 

Tomorrow, we’ll wrap up the whole thing. Patrick Mahomes will win, but swing by anyway please.

2022 Quarterback Madness: Round 1

/ Jason / 2 Comments

Welcome to the 6th Edition of Quarterback Madness, a March Madness-style bracket that I invented, like Thomas Edison, back in 2010. The rules are simple and entirely arbitrary. Essentially, it boils down to which QB, given each matchup, I’d prefer to start my NFL expansion franchise with. Previous winners include Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. And that’s it. They’re the only previous winners.

I’ll be breaking this into a series of posts rather than one long one. Like and subscribe and comment below etc etc.

All seedings are based on team records, by conference, entering Week 10 of the 2022 season.

AFC

1. Josh Allen (BUF) vs. 16. Davis Mills (HOU)

Sure, I could spend a lot of time here comparing Allen’s stats to Mills’ stats. But that seems like an undervaluing of your time. Do I think that Davis Mills can be an effective NFL QB? Yeah, probably. But that’s about it for his ceiling. As for Allen, the last time I did this exercise in 2019, I lambasted him up and down about his lack of passing accuracy. And to be fair, at that time, he did look like a really fancy tool shed filled with tools that the owner wasn’t capable of using. But now, in 2022, Allen is consistently sawing through defenses. I wish Buffalo would let him use his size more and give him 5-7 designed runs per game, but that’s more a quibble with Ken Dorsey’s philosophy and their desire to keep Allen healthy. Josh has figured out how to pass at an elite level. He still makes an inaccurate, boneheaded throw once a game. But more often than not, he’s an unstoppable wrecking machine. 

8. Mac Jones (NE) vs. 9. Joe Burrow (CIN)

The troll in me desperately wanted to make Bailey Zappe New England’s representative here. Let’s just say I’ve matured a bit. Mac Jones has regressed immensely in 2022 from his rookie season. He’s second-to-last in QBR among qualified players (only Baker Mayfield is worse). Most troubling is Jones’ decision-making. He’s thrown nearly twice as many interceptions as touchdowns and while he’s still one of the most accurate passers in the league (66%), you can’t make the mistakes he’s making and hope that short-field accuracy will equate to winning football, especially with the total lack of weapons he has on offense. Burrow is the clear choice here. He’s also stalled a bit in 2022. And he’s still taking way too many sacks. And sure, he has perhaps the best 3 WR set in football to work with. All of those caveats aside, he’s simply a better QB than Jones right now and there’s no reason to believe that will change in the future. 

5. Zach Wilson (NYJ) vs. 12. Russell Wilson (DEN)

It’s matchups like this that make me love this exercise. Look, there’s no winner here. Russell Wilson looks absolutely washed and every day shows himself to be more and more of a dislikable weirdo. Zach Wilson has youth on his side. Youth can be quite the folly though, because it can make you believe you’re Josh Allen when you’re actually a lot closer to Joshua Dobbs. Wilson’s arm strength is not the question. It’s his absolute penchant for making the dumbest possible throws that is. He’s completing just 58% of his throws and he’s throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Every week, Z. Wilson will escape the pocket to his strong side, stop along the sideline, and fire a flaming meatball into the middle of the field. It would be fun to watch if he hadn’t been the second overall pick and he wasn’t wasting some legitimately talented skill position players. And yet, after all of that, I’m taking him over Russell, who is also completing under 60% of his passes and is also wasting some legitimately talented skill position players, AND is 11 years Zach’s senior. He’s almost old enough to be in Zach’s dating range, in fact. 

4. Ryan Tannehill (TEN) vs. 13. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

One guy is probably towards the end of his career (at least as a starter) and the other is just getting started. Has Lawrence underwhelmed thus far? A little bit. He’s been perfectly league average in this, his second season. He’s certainly shown progress in 2022, due in no small part, I’m sure, to having a healthy Travis Etienne Jr. and an exiled Urban Meyer. He’s still making young QB mistakes with regularity, but his arm strength and his extremely fast release are still elite. Do I think he gets to the Andrew Luck level that I predicted? Eh. But I think of all the QBs from the 2021 Draft, Lawrence is still the best and I don’t think it’s close. Tannehill has done his job during his career, but at this point, he’s really just a live body to hand the ball off to Derrick Henry. That said, you will notice that he’s here and not Malik Willis, who Tennessee drafted in the 3rd round in the 2022 Draft and has made two NFL starts. I said in my 2022 Draft preview that I didn’t think Willis would be ready to start at all in his first season and that has absolutely proven to be true. He has looked totally overmatched in the NFL, similarly to how he did in college when he faced Power 5 defenses. It’s two games in a rookie season and the last time I did this exercise, I was highly critical of Josh Allen. But Willis’ 6.5 QBR and 40% completion percentage in his two starts says enough at this point. Tannehill gets the nod over Willis here, but it’s Lawrence who trounces either Tennessee quarterback.

6. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. 11. Deshaun Watson (CLE)

I’m inclined to just say “to hell with Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns” and just move on entirely. But lets look at this whole thing from a football perspective before we do that, while acknowledging the two dozen sexual assault claims against Cleveland’s self-selected face of the franchise. Watson hasn’t played an NFL game since January 3, 2021. It will be nearly two calendar years between starts when he suits up against Houston on December 4th. When last we saw him on a football field, he was an elite (perhaps Top 5) talent. He was smart with the football, but also fully willing to throw deep, even without DeAndre Hopkins. And he was startlingly accurate. On a football-only level, what Cleveland gave up to get him and what they committed to him financially was good business. However, given the totality of the situation, we know it’s not. Watson sat out the 2021 season of his own accord because, I don’t know, he’s a baby? He then showed no understanding at all of the gravity of which he was accused. Unless you’re one of those weirdos who defends your sports team like it’s your life’s purpose or you’re a men’s rights activist, it’s pretty easy to see that Watson is a really bad person. So we’ll talk about Tua in the next round when he faces Lamar Jackson.

3. Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs. 14. Derek Carr (LVR)

“Just wait until Derek Carr has weapons to throw to,” they all said (me included). Well, have we seen enough? Look, he wasn’t going to beat Lamar Jackson in a debate of “who is the better QB” even if he didn’t look like a shell of himself. But yikes, he looks awful. Meanwhile, Lamar is Lamar. In 2019, he was a semi-finalist in this exercise. While some of that shine has worn off, he’s still a franchise-building piece (in the final year of his contract, inexplicably).

7. Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. 10. Not Applicable (IND)

This is the first time I’ve ever just listed N/A as a team’s quarterback (and I’ll do it again with Carolina later). I haven’t the slightest idea what Indianapolis is doing right now, especially at the QB position. They’ve seemingly committed to a deeply flawed strategy of bringing in a new veteran QB every offseason. This year’s version, Matt Ryan, has been the worst of the bunch, so much so that he was benched in favor of Sam Ehlinger, a player with no future in the NFL. There’s truly nothing there with Ehlinger. He’s not big. He’s not fast. His arm strength is okay. He isn’t even accurate in the short game. He’s just not the kind of QB you hitch your wagon to six games into a season when your expensive offseason acquisition fails. As for Herbert, he’s got quite the matchup waiting for him in the next round.

2. Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. 15. Kenny Pickett (PIT)

To an extent, I kind of like what I’ve seen from Kenny Pickett. There’s a lot to work on certainly. But I can see the outline of a decent QB. Think a smaller Ryan Tannehill. And that’s about all we need to say about this matchup. 

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NFC

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. 16. Not applicable (CAR)

Not applicable making their second appearance. Truly a prolific year for teams with confounding QB situations. Carolina’s QB room is an absolute mess. In a perfect world, they finish the season with the NFL’s worst record, draft Bryce Young or CJ Stroud first overall (right now I prefer Stroud but that’s not etched in stone), and move on from the Sam Darnold/Baker Mayfield/PJ Walker carousel of misery that they have now. In an even more perfect world, the Ravens somehow don’t offer Lamar Jackson a legitimate long-term contract and the Panthers give him the most guaranteed money in NFL history. They then use that high draft pick as leverage, trade down, acquire a slew of picks, take Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer, and by 2024, they’re an NFC contender. Until then, Jalen Hurts wins this matchup.

8. Desmond Ridder (ATL) vs. 9. Carson Wentz (WAS)

This was as close to a third “Not Applicable” as we got and frankly, you can’t even tell for certain which team I’m talking about! The Washington Football Team can move on from Wentz after this season with zero dead cap space. That is good! The bad part is that they gave up two 3rd rounders and a 2nd rounder for X number of games of horrific QB play at $28 million. For Atlanta, I’m still on the Ridder train. Yes, it’s troubling that we’re nearing the halfway point in the season and Atlanta is still running the same offense as the Naval Academy with Marcus Mariota, even though they could conceivably make the playoffs with one of the worst defenses in football. I firmly believe that Desmond Ridder can be an NFL QB and a good one at that. When it comes to what Wentz is, I think we can all agree that it is NOT a good QB.

5. Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. 12. Aaron Rodgers (GB)

What a super competitive, intriguing matchup this is in the year 2019. In the year 2022, it’s Dak. Rodgers has more than worn out his welcome, to the point that I think he’s actively harming the growth and development of Green Bay’s young skill position players. The Packers would be wise to move on from Rodgers and see what they have in Jordan Love before the Draft and free agency. There’s even a good chance they can convince a very bad GM to trade for Rodgers. When Dak is healthy, he’s a top 10 QB. I don’t think Aaron Rodgers gets into that top 10 ever again. 

4. Tom Brady (TB) vs. 13. Kyler Murray (ARI)

“Surely,” you think, “there’s no way this idiot is going to pick 45 year old Tom Brady over Kyler Murray.” And I’ll calm your nerves right away. No, I’m not going to. But I could be convinced to do so. At some point, one has to wonder how much of Kyler Murray’s mediocrity is on the shoulders of Kliff Kingsbury and his continued unjustifiable employment as Arizona’s head coach. I would love to see Kyler Murray in the Mike McDaniel system. Heck, I’d like to see Kyler Murray in a system. Arizona’s offense seems to be built off of bizarre gadget plays with Rondale Moore four yards behind the line of scrimmage and tossing the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins 10 times a game and hoping for the best. Murray himself is not without his flaws. Our Call of Duty King will always be very short and as he ages and has to rely on the pocket more, I fear he’s going to have a lot of trouble completing passes. All of that said, Tom Brady is indeed 45 years old, in the middle of a divorce, and has the body language of both a 45 year old and a divorcee. This is the first year that Brady has looked truly mortal and, in fact, beatable. And I don’t foresee him finding some kind of new, mystery gear. I think this is finally the end of his long, incredible road. And I think that’s good for everybody. 

6. Daniel Jones (NYG) vs. 11. Jameis Winston (NO)

Have you ever been out on a run or a bike ride without a prior plan and you get to a point where you’re totally unsure of where to go next? That was basically me when I got to this matchup. I’m just standing there at an intersection weighing whether I continue on or just go home. There is an extremely high chance that neither of these guys are starting QBs next year. Jones is having a career year with first year head coach Brian Daboll. For Jones, that means he’s averaging well under 200 passing ypg and a 58.2 QBR. Daniel Jones is going to be a very good backup QB in his career. I am, for whatever reason, going to go with Winston here. He’s the QB equivalent of a classic car with no seatbelts. 425 HP and you’re probably going to sever your spine because of him. But I still have a glimmer of hope that he can check up a little (maybe 280 HP) and install a nice harness system. (Jameis Winston is not a car.)

3. Geno Smith (SEA) vs. 14. Justin Fields (CHI)

I have this “fun” bit early in this NFL season. It goes like this: Geno Smith should be the NFL MVP. And I’m only partially serious. A lot of the pundits I follow really like to overlook how bad Justin Fields can look at times because he’s also extremely dynamic and can do things that only about five QBs can do. Geno Smith, on the other hand, is Geno Smith. Fields has shown enough flashes that I’d bet on him in this matchup over Geno who is a good pocket passer and nothing more. But I am absolutely not convinced (at least not yet) that Fields can be consistent enough to make the Bears competitive.

7. Trey Lance (SF) vs. 10. Matthew Stafford (LAR)

What, really, is Trey Lance? Here’s what I know: He is fast. He is big. He was the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. I know that he *was* extremely accurate. I also know that in two seasons in the NFL, he will have thrown 102 passes. San Francisco gave up a boatload to acquire Lance and it’s clear why. You can’t teach his size. But the jury is absolutely still deliberating on him. On the other side of this matchup is Matthew Stafford who is 34 years old. We’d be looking at Stafford a lot differently if not for a dropped INT in last year’s NFC Championship game. As the starting QB for a team coached by history’s greatest offensive mind (sarcasm font), Stafford sits behind such luminaries as Jared Goff and Andy Dalton in Total QBR. He looks bad. His counting stats are aided immensely in having Human YAC Machine Cooper Kupp at his disposal. In this matchup I’ll take the uncertainty of Trey Lance over what I’m pretty sure we know Matthew Stafford to be, which is a flawed and aging QB with a lot of miles on the tires. 

2. Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. 15. Jared Goff (DET)

It is at this point that I realize that the NFC is some kind of QB graveyard because I just thought “Is Kirk Cousins going to win the NFC?” (We’ll see). I am history’s greatest Jared Goff detractor. He’s not good enough to win you games, but he’s certainly bad enough to lose you some. I just have no use for him and it’s quite frankly disappointing that Detroit didn’t draft Desmond Ridder before Atlanta did because they have the skill position players to be competitive and, dare I say, fun. Kirk Cousins is both good enough to win you games and bad enough to lose you some. But he’s more good than bad despite his reputation. 

Keep your eyes peeled for the next installment of QUARTERBACK MADNESS…right here!

2022 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment
i have a passion for web design

(Jason note: I’m going to do a somewhat lengthy intro about how I’ve viewed the build-up to the Draft and my analysis of a few individual prospects, followed by the selections I would make if I was each of the 32 GMs). 

What an extremely weird draft process this has been. It reminds me of the 2013 NBA Draft when there was no consensus best player at the time (Hi Giannis!) and the team with the first pick talked themselves into a high-upside project who wound up burning out faster than a TikTok trend. He’s now playing professionally in Taiwan. For Travon Walker, I hope he fares better, even if I think his rapid ascension to most-likely first overall pick is completely asinine and evidence that this process is too long. 

We (the people who do this professionally and people like me who wish we did) get so enamored with the measurables. Make no mistake, Walker’s are off the charts. His Combine performance was the stuff of legend. His in-game performance, however, wasn’t. He showed flashes of immense pass-rushing skill, but didn’t produce the counting statistics you’d like to see from a college pass rusher.  

To give you an idea of Walker’s rise, I did two mock drafts prior to this published one. One was February 15. The other was March 7. In the first one, I didn’t slot Walker in the first round. The second mock which I did in the immediate aftermath of the Combine, I slotted him in at 10 and thought at the time that I was being far too generous. Then his name started popping up more and more. And now, today (April 25) as I write this intro, he’s the odds-on favorite to go first overall, despite playing no games from February 15-today. 

At the start of this process, I wasn’t enamored with Aidan Hutchinson, having watched him do absolutely nothing against an SEC offensive line in the CFP. Hutchinson’s measurables are great, save for his very short arms, which give him a severe disadvantage at the snap, as it limits his ability to get first contact. As I’ve listened to and read actual experts over the past two months, I’ve come to appreciate a little more of what Hutchinson is and what he could be.

All along, I’ve thought that Jacksonville was in an impossible situation. From what I can tell, the team has done a terrible job of ginning up interest in a trade for the first overall pick, which would be the ideal scenario for them. And perhaps the Travon Walker stuff is actually Jacksonville trying to create smoke to entice a team in the 3-10 range to move up to draft him.  However, everybody else in the Top 10 appears to be pretty comfortable with where they are. Detroit especially stands to get the player they wanted all along (we assume) in Hutchinson without having to give up anything for him. 

On the offensive line, there is no Orlando Pace in this draft, but Jacksonville would still be very smart to draft an offensive tackle with the first overall pick, rather than swing for the fences with Travon Walker. Their offensive line lacks depth to begin with. Add to that that their best lineman is Cam Robinson on the one-year franchise tag (Robinson has since signed a 3 year extension which I’ll discuss below with Jacksonville’s pick)  and it just makes sense to me that you’d want to build that depth to protect the investment in Trevor Lawrence. Really, what’s the point of drafting a potential franchise-altering QB if you’re only going to surround him with middle-round talent? The player I have going first overall is the most versatile lineman in this draft and someone who I’ve consistently mocked to Jacksonville. Ultimately, I think given what we know about Trent Baalke (Jacksonville’s GM), they’ll swing for the fences on Thursday and select Walker. 

Part of what makes this draft so weird is that the quarterback class is the worst in recent memory and maybe ever. The general consensus is that Malik Willis is the best prospect, given his tools. I just can’t see how a GM can take him early in the first round unless they have an ironclad and notarized agreement with ownership that they’ll get to stick around long enough to have the gamble maybe pay off. Willis will absolutely not be ready to start in Week 1. I’m not entirely sure that he’ll be able to start in Week 18 either. He has a long way to go as a quarterback who can complete passes at all three levels before he can succeed in the NFL. His decision making at Liberty (including attending Liberty) severely lapsed at times even against middling competition. There’s just an immense amount of washout potential in him. Meanwhile, the general consensus is that Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett is the safer pick and I might have agreed with that two months ago, but everything I’ve read about him indicates a guy who will absolutely wilt under defensive pressure. And let’s not forget that his hands are very tiny. Pickett has, in my mind, an Andy Dalton ceiling in the NFL. I don’t see how that’s worth a first round pick.

For me, the safest QB in the draft is Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, a four year starter who improved every year, has sneaky mobility, and is an accurate passer, albeit without the arm strength of Willis. Ridder isn’t the kind of high-upside QB that you’d take in the top 10, but I think in the late teens, an already good team is going to draft a QB who will be a stable signal caller for 10+ years. Think Derek Carr or Tony Romo in terms of numbers.  Meanwhile, I think the career ceiling for Willis could be 2021 Josh Allen and the floor could be 2018 Josh Allen. Is it worth committing yourself to Willis for 3-4 years or smarter to fill a positional need and wait for better QB classes in 2023 and 2024?

Okay, on to the picks. Where relevant, I’ll include who I think the team will actually select, because obviously I differ a bit from the likely reality.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars select Evan Neal (OT/Alabama)

As noted, I think this will be Travon Walker. I personally love Neal. He has every box checked for an offensive lineman. Size. Speed. Strength. Positional flexibility. This has been my selection for the Jags since they locked up the first overall pick. This morning’s news that they’ve signed Cam Robinson to a 3 year/$54 million extension throws a bit of a wrench into the selection. I thought about moving Hutchinson up here, which would lead to a ripple effect that would see Detroit probably take Travon Walker, Houston still take Ekwonu who is a better scheme fit and Neal fall to the Giants at 5. The reason why I’m sticking with Neal is because in my mind’s eye, he’s the best, most day-one ready prospect in this Draft. First overall is rich for a player who will likely play Guard, but it’s important to note that Robinson getting the franchise tag is not indicative of his being a franchise player. PFF (Pro Football Focus) ranked him in the bottom half of all tackles in the NFL last season. He’s also played 16 games in a season just once. I still don’t think pass rush is more of a need for Jacksonville than pass protection. They’ll also have the first pick in every other round, allowing them to survey the landscape and make the most informed decision. I go with the surest thing here, regardless of Robinson’s extension.

  1. Detroit Lions select Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE/Michigan)

This is the ideal scenario for the Lions. They need a pass rusher and will draft one here probably regardless of what Jacksonville does. All indications are that the Michigan guy is their guy. If he goes first overall, I’d imagine Detroit takes Walker over Kayvon Thibodeaux..

  1. Houston Texans select Ikem Ekwonu (OT/NC State)

Is this too high to draft a guy whose biggest strength is his run blocking? Maybe. Are the Houston Texans in dire need of players who can do anything well? Yes. Having a run blocking dynamo like Ekwonu I think takes some pressure off of Davis Mills. I’d look for Houston to use their early second round pick on Iowa State running back Breece Hall to really give Mills a chance to succeed. 

  1. New York Jets select Derek Stingley Jr. (CB/LSU)

The cornerback pool has two absolute 1a guys in Stingley and Sauce Gardner. Sauce was the consistent performer who, when he played high quality WRs out of conference, didn’t lose a step. Stingley on the other hand hasn’t been great or healthy since 2019, but it’s very, very hard to overlook how dominant he was in 2019. If he’s recovered from his foot fracture, his upside is too great to let him slip. He has generational ability.  I think the Jets take one of Stingley or Sauce here and honestly neither pick would be wrong. 

  1. New York Giants select Travon Walker (EDGE/Georgia)

No, I don’t think Walker slips to 5 on Thursday. If he does, given that the Giants pick again at 7, this feels like the right place to take a big home run swing, a thing I think teams with multiple firsts should always try to do (it’s what I have the Jets doing at 4). The Giants need help everywhere on defense. Knowing that the team drafting after them took a corner in round 1 last year allows them to leave Sauce available and just hope nobody trades up to 6 for him. 

  1. Carolina Panthers select Charles Cross (OT/Mississippi State)

I think Carolina will draft Malik Willis here, which would be utterly insane. I go with the somewhat safer bet and take the LT who shined against the Alabama defense in 2021 in a pass heavy offense without a lot of talent around him.

  1. New York Giants (from Chicago) select Sauce Gardner (CB/Cincinnati)

See, no one traded up for Sauce…

  1. Atlanta Falcons select Trent McDuffie (CB/Washington)

Here’s my first “reach.” I think any of the next four guys are probably “better” than McDuffie, but the Falcons defense just absolutely stinks. And it especially stinks in the secondary. This is a team that’s absolutely going to be in contention for Bryce Young next year (the presumptive first overall pick in the 2023 Draft). So this is a franchise-building pick rather than some big swing at something they don’t need to swing it. If they draft a QB here, they’re insane. 

  1. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) select Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE/Oregon)

Speaking of teams that should be playing for the first overall pick next year…Seattle got this pick for Russell Wilson and will enter the 2022 season with Drew Lock as their quarterback, which is as close to waving a white flag as a team could get. Thibodeaux in this spot is a must-get for a team that has had trouble getting to the quarterback for years. Like Atlanta, this is absolutely not a place for them to draft a QB. I could also see Kyle Hamilton going here.

  1. New York Jets (from Seattle) select Jameson Williams (WR/Alabama)

This pick came down to Kyle Hamilton and Jameson Williams. I went with Williams because despite his ACL tear in January, I think he’s the best receiver in this class and the only true game-changer in the group. The Jets have done a nice job of building up their receiving corp, but Williams brings something altogether different. Much like Jacksonville with Trevor Lawrence, the Jets need to give Zach Wilson every chance to succeed or, conversely, show that he can’t succeed so that they can move on from him quicker than they did from Sam Darnold. These two picks are risky for the Jets, but if only one hits, they’ll have an All-Pro. If both hit, that’s a franchise-changer.

  1. Washington (sigh) Commanders select Kyle Hamilton (S/Notre Dame)

The Football Commanders get, for my money, the best pure football player in this draft. I’m deeply enamored with defensive guys who can play at multiple levels (see: Simmons, Isaiah). Hamilton is one of those guys. He’s huge for a safety, but can hold his own as an inside corner and can cover the middle of the field like a linebacker. For a fanbase that remains as deeply enamored with Sean Taylor as one could be, Hamilton would represent the best secondary player this franchise has seen since Taylor. 

  1. Minnesota Vikings select Jermaine Johnson II (EDGE/Florida State)

If you’re noticing a bit of a trend in the modern NFL it’s that you cannot have enough bodies who can get to the opposing quarterback. For now, this is a league fixated on the pass. The only ways to counter that are with pressure and great corners. All three corners who I believe will be great are gone and drafted here, leaving Minnesota with the best pass rushing option. Johnson was great at the Senior Bowl and probably the lone bright spot on a horrific Florida State team in 2021. 

  1. Houston Texans (from Cleveland) select Drake London (WR/USC)

After Jameson Williams, the receiving pool becomes a real grab bag. London is by far the biggest and most physical of the bunch and was producing historic numbers in 2021 before an injury ended his season. The trend in the modern NFL appears to be towards smaller, quicker wideouts, but there’s certainly still room for guys like London (Michael Thomas-like) who can control the short and intermediate passing game with their size. The Texans seem to really like Davis Mills. If they do like him, they’ll get him a really talented security blanket to throw to 14 times per game.

  1. Baltimore Ravens select Jordan Davis (NT/Georgia)

If at this time on Thursday, the Ravens have their choice of Georgia’s two standout interior defensive linemen, they’ll be ecstatic. I give the edge (not to be confused with EDGE) to Jordan Davis (who would never be confused for an EDGE). Davis is the kind of player I used to make in Madden. 6’6”. 341 LBS. Runs a 40-yard dash in 4.78 seconds and has 34” arms. Now, it’s extremely unlikely that the Ravens will line Davis up at wideout to use that speed, but the size and arm length will certainly play as a run-stuffing interior force. Haloti Ngata was a cornerstone at the nose tackle position in Baltimore and I envision Davis as that type of player.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami) select Garrett Wilson (WR/Ohio State)

See special combined “analysis” below

  1. New Orleans Saints (from Indianapolis via Philly) select Chris Olave (WR/Ohio State)

These teams engaged in one of the weirdest trades of draft picks I can ever remember, shuffling late teens picks around, seemingly to give New Orleans an edge (not EDGE) over the Chargers…I guess? Anyway, Philly probably needs to go back to the well at wide receiver and see if they can finally get that position right. New Orleans needs skill position players desperately. This isn’t the pick where a QB would come in to play, as the Chargers seem pretty set there for the next 15 years and you don’t make the trade they did with Philly without the assurance that your target is safe. In terms of analyzing these two receivers, they’re both kind of the same to me. Similar build. Olave is more of a deep threat with open field speed. Wilson is more of a possession based receiver. I think Wilson is the more steady choice and Philly needs steady at wideout.

  1. Los Angeles Chargers select Devonte Wyatt (DT/Georgia)

There’s a lot of debate about which interior lineman from UGA is better between Wyatt and Davis. I think they’re both really good and Baltimore and LAC would probably be happy to swap them here. The Chargers run defense was awful in 2021 and they’ve made moves to upgrade, but depth is key.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans) select Nakobe Dean (LB/Georgia)

I love Nakobe Dean because every single time you watch him. he’s making plays. He’s so quick to react to running backs slipping out of the backfield and so quick in his reads of QBs. Maybe he’s not someone’s perfect ideal sized middle linebacker. Whatever. He’s a game-wrecker. I’d have to imagine that given their predilection for athletes who give it on every play, Dean will be a home run in Philly. 

  1. New Orleans Saints (from Philadelphia) select Desmond Ridder (QB/Cincinnati)

Wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts! Ridder is not going to get drafted 19th overall. But this is where I would take him for all the reasons mentioned in my intro. I just like Ridder better than Willis as an NFL prospect. And I know I’m contradicting my rule about multi-pick teams taking home run swings in leaving Willis on the board. If this is exactly how the Draft plays out on Thursday, I wouldn’t lose my mind over the Saints drafting Willis here and having him…learn (???) from Jameis Winston.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers select Trevor Penning (OT/Northern Iowa)

Penning is a risky pick, given his FCS background. His Senior Bowl was inconsistent with the most common refrain being that he looked “nasty.” That’s well and good in the FCS and at the Senior Bowl, but there’s no guarantee that nastiness translates to the NFL where talent matters more. However, I look at the Pittsburgh team and think it’s impossible to draft a QB here given how bad their offensive line depth is. I mean, they literally built an offense around Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball in under 2 seconds because he was so immobile and the line was so leaky. You have to take a chance here on a talented guy with great measurables and hope he’s better than whatever they had last season.

  1. New England Patriots select George Karalaftis (EDGE/Purdue)

The production was not entirely there for Karlaftis during his three seasons as a starter, but there’s a lot of upside here. Karlaftis will be 21 years old during the entirety of the 2022 season. He’s young. He’s also extremely talented, even if that talent didn’t always flash in college. His 2021 season didn’t see him rack up the sack numbers, but he hurried the QB an average of 3 times per game. In terms of need for the Patriots, pass rushing is fairly high on the list, right below “a head coach who smiles more.” 

  1. Green Bay Packers (from Las Vegas) select Tyler Linderbaum (C/Iowa)

To give you an idea of how good Linderbaum is viewed, in 2020 he was the highest graded center in the country, ahead of Creed Humphrey, who would get drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 Draft by the Chiefs, start all 17 games, and be PFF’s top rated center in the NFL. I think there’s an argument to be made that if you can take a generational talent at their position, regardless of that position (outside of punter, probably) you do it. You especially do it when you lack consistency on the offensive line and that prospect is a center. And you super especially do it when you’re a cold weather team and that player is an interior offensive lineman from Iowa. Green Bay has another pick to address their glaring holes at wide receiver.

  1. Arizona Cardinals select Zion Johnson (G/Boston College)

Can you tell that this is a lineman-heavy first round? Johnson is probably the most underrated prospect so far, due in large part to him playing at BC. Throughout the pre-draft process, Johnson has tested well and moved up draft boards, solidifying himself as the best pure guard in 2021. Arizona made the playoffs last year, though you’d be forgiven if you forgot that. The roster is quite a mess for a playoff team and the franchise quarterback may or may not have indicated that he wants to be traded. Perhaps he’d be happier with a more consistent O-line. 

  1. Dallas Cowboys select Devin Lloyd (LB/Utah)

Do not be surprised if Dallas uses this pick on one of the electric wideouts who are still available here (they’d also love Jameson Williams I’m sure but I doubt that happens). Dallas spent the offseason seemingly increasing their list of needs from defensive tackle and offensive line depth to completely new offensive linemen, a few wide receivers, pass rushing, and competent middle linebacker. Devin Lloyd fills that last role well. Lloyd is great in coverage and against the run. Filling this hole for Dallas would also see Micah Parsons be able to transition to an even-more havoc-wreaking pass rushing monster. 

  1. Buffalo Bills select Skyy Moore (WR/Western Michigan)

If I told you there was a MAC wide receiver named Skyy Moore, the person you’d envision would be exactly Skyy Moore. “Stupid quickness” describes Moore in the open field. Despite all the receivers above him in this draft, he was the highest rated player at the position in FBS. 94 catches for nearly 1300 yards. As far as fit with Buffalo, they lost Cole Beasley this offseason and could replace him with an extremely more dynamic version of him.

  1. Tennessee Titans select David Ojabo (EDGE/Michigan)

What do you do when your immediate needs are relatively superficial and you can fill those later in the Draft? You go and draft the previously consensus first round pick who is slipping because of a freak injury. Ojabo rushed the QB opposite Aidan Hutchinson. There’s some question as to whether his statistical spike was a result of Hutch getting all of the attention. That’s probably fair. But also, Ojabo is super athletic and raw and still learning the position. I’ve mentioned home run swings before. This is it. 

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Kenyon Green (G/Texas A&M)

Ali Marpet abruptly retired and played the guard position. Kenyon Green is a guard who can also play either tackle, as he showed in college. Tampa’s needs are a bit superficial too (meaning “they could use some <blank> depth” rather than “they have an immediate and pressing need for a <blank>.) Interior line is a higher priority need at the moment given the abrupt un-retiring of Tom Brady.

  1. Green Bay Packers select Treylon Burks (WR/Arkansas)

Okay, so, it happened. Green Bay ended the streak and drafted a WR in the first round for the first time in the Aaron Rodgers era. If the Packers are to somehow keep that streak alive, you would have to call it self-parody, because if Burks is on the board, you draft him. Skyy Moore being drafted ahead of Burks here is more about what the Bills needed than an indictment of Burks, who is just a different guy. Treylon is a classic, big, downfield receiving threat. And right now, Green Bay doesn’t have any receiving that could be deemed a threat. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (from San Francisco via Miami) select Andrew Booth Jr. (CB/Clemson)
  1. Kansas City Chiefs select Jahan Dotson (WR/Penn State)

Rarer than the supermoon, it’s the back-to-back first round picks from one team. Kansas City’s two biggest offseason losses were a big, physical corner in Charvarius Ward and an undersized speedster receiver with big play ability in Tyreek Hill. Check and check. And no, I don’t think Jahan Dotson just automatically becomes Tyreek Hill. His open field speed is once-in-a-generation. But a slightly lesser Tyreek Hill is still a really good NFL receiver.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals select Jalen Pitre (Secondary/Baylor)

When I got to Cincinnati I realized this particular mock draft would be the nightmare scenario for them, because I’m sure they’d love some more offensive line depth or more pass rushing prowess. Instead we move to the next biggest need which is secondary. I lean Pitre over Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary, and Kyler Gordon because of his positional flexibility and pedigree of success (2021 Big XII Player of the Year). He is probably a safety in the NFL, but I also think Cincy could get away with him as a nickelback when needed..

  1. Detroit Lions (from LA Rams) select Malik Willis (QB/Liberty)

Home run? Time will tell. All I know is that Jared Goff is nobody’s answer at QB. Let him play out the final year of significant dead cap damage (from $41 million in 2022 to $10 million in ‘23) while focusing all of the development on Willis. Hell, give him all of the starter reps in practice and then make Goff go out there on Sundays. Go 2-15, waive Goff at the first chance and continue to build around Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Aidan Hutchinson and Malik Willis (if this scenario plays out) with a high 2023 pick. And don’t completely give up on Jeff Okudah, 2020’s top 3 pick. Injury has cost him the early part of his career, but you’d have to imagine the talent isn’t gone. The Lions have some really good young centerpieces and with Aaron Rodgers potentially quitting mid-season during a Pat McAfee podcast, the NFC North could be up for grabs sooner rather than later. The Willis gamble is worth taking at this late stage of the first round, because as I see it, Detroit is the next team up in this division given their great drafting last year.

***

So what else? Well, at QB we’re left with Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, and Sam Howell. Highest ceiling is probably Howell even though he’s a mechanical nightmare. Then I’d take Pickett to be my Andy Dalton. And after that, Corral, who I think probably belongs closer to the next rung of QBs with Carson Strong and Bailey Zappe. 

At running back, if this was 2005, Breece Hall would be a top 10 pick. He can catch the ball out of the backfield and run between the tackles with great skill. That kind of versatility is vital in today’s NFL. 

The  wideout to note is John Metchie III who was a likely first rounder until he tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game. He won’t be recovered in time to make a Week 1 impact, but the talent is worth an early second round investment certainly, especially for a team like Seattle who have two second round picks and a need to rebuild. 

If you’re anything like me, I am deeply sorry. But also, you probably enjoy watching anomalies. Players like Jordan Davis who are literally twice the size of another person who run at Olympic sprinter speeds. It’s particularly jaw-dropping in professional wrestling to see the big 7’0” “GIANT!” execute a top rope moonsault. Then there’s Minnesota’s Daniel Faalele, who is 6’8” and just a hint under 385 lbs. I don’t know if Daniel can do moonsaults. And even though he didn’t run the 40 at the Combine, I’m confident that Daniel cannot run a sub-5.00 40-yard dash. But I do know that Daniel is really big. Can a player that big in height and weight succeed (he’s 40 lbs heavier than Jonathan Ogden) as a left tackle? I’ll be waiting to find out. 

On the defensive side of the ball, I fully expect there to be a League-wide infatuation with Georgia’s defensive players and could see two more (Safety Lewis Cine and LB Quay Walker) sneaking into the end of the first round. Walker especially has really big potential to be a long-term fixture in the NFL. 

Enjoy the Draft. I would like to do this professionally.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

/ Jason / Leave a comment

What follows is my mock draft. It’s different from most mock drafts because nobody talks to me, I’ll probably not proofread it, and I don’t plan to promote it on social media.

Why should you continue reading? I follow the sport. I read a lot. I follow college football. I pay $20 a year for this domain name. If you’ve stumbled here through an errant Google or Bing search, I’m sorry. But maybe keep reading.

I write these posts for me, really. Sure, I’d like for someone to read this and think that I can write competently and know a thing or two about football. But more than anything, I like to have a place where I can look back on my thoughts a few years from now and say “Good job” or “Bad job.”

The mock draft below is not my attempt to go 32/32 (I’m bolding this for the people who don’t read the intro). I’m draft for each team as though I were their GM, operating with unilateral decision making powers. I’m drafting the players I think are best at each position based on what I saw in college and what I’ve read from a collection of draft sources. Let’s go.

1.Jacksonville Jaguars select Trevor Lawrence (QB/Clemson) I’m not going to be cute here. Lawrence is the best QB in this draft and probably the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. He’s so good that the most common knock on him at this point is that maybe he doesn’t love football like a maniacal obsessive. I think that’s a fine thing. He’ll be a Day 1 starter and a really good one at that.

2. New York Jets select Justin Fields (QB/Ohio State) In real life, the Jets will take Zach Wilson. I’ll talk about him at some point in this first round (probably!). Of course, this pick didn’t need to be used on a QB. The Jets had Sam Darnold, who they just drafted third overall in 2018 (after giving up a haul of picks to move up to select him), but they traded him to Carolina earlier this month for table scraps in the form of draft picks. Fields to me is a much safer bet than Wilson. His ceiling is higher than I think he’s getting credit for and I wonder how much of the negative thinking around him is because of Ohio State’s failure to create good NFL QBs (and also racism). Fields is not Cardale Jones, JT Barrett, or Dwayne Haskins. Fields is deadly accurate in the pocket, can throw on the run, and has the size you want in a starting QB. There’s also a bunch of game tape against NFL-light defenses (Clemson twice, Alabama once, Big 10 opponents). Zach Wilson played Coastal Carolina last year and wasn’t very good.

3. San Francisco 49ers select Trey Lance (QB/North Dakota State) San Francisco traded up to this spot to, the world assumes, draft a quarterback. I think in a perfect world, they’d take one more run at it with Jimmy Garoppolo, but they must be either nervous about his medicals or just generally nervous about him medically. The other 21 starters are really good. Collectively probably a top 5 team in the NFL. Injuries ravaged them last year, including to Jimmy G. I would have stayed put at the 12 spot where there will be really good value. Here, I take Trey Lance who is a more accurate Josh Allen on paper. Lance is big, fast, and very accurate. He didn’t lose a game in college and didn’t throw an interception. He also didn’t play against FBS competition. But the attributes and attitude are great on Lance and teams have done well with North Dakota State quarterbacks in recent years (the Eagles don’t get to the Super Bowl without Carson Wentz). Can Lance start on Day 1 for a team that should have Super Bowl aspirations? That’s a good question and one that leaves me wondering why the 49ers traded into this spot.

4. Atlanta Falcons select Kyle Pitts (TE/Florida) Truthfully, the Jets should have kept Darnold and drafted Pitts. Likewise Miami should have stayed at 3 and drafted Pitts. Pitts is a unicorn. He’s a create-a-player in Madden. He can play outside as a receiver. He can play inside as a tight end. He can be physical over the middle. He can burn cornerbacks deep. Pitts should define the tight end position for the next generation and should be the ultimate gamechanger. Are there other needs for Atlanta? Certainly. Their defense is the pits (pun intended) or maybe it’s…for the birds (ha!). Atlanta could trade back into the teens to draft one of the cornerbacks, but they’d be passing up on the kind of talent that gets GMS fired for passing up on them.

5. Cincinnati Bengals select Penei Sewell (OT/Oregon) Last season ended for the Bengals when their franchise quarterback, who had spent the season being hammered behind a bad offensive line, tore his ACL and MCL. You don’t draft a franchise quarterback and throw him behind a bad offensive line just like you don’t buy a Bugatti and leave it unlocked in a Von’s parking lot with the keys in and the door wide open. Sewell, as a prospect, is a lot more than just insurance for Burrow. This isn’t meant to sell him short. But Cincy would be making a huge mistake if they drafted a skill position player here. Sewell should be a top-tier LT for the next decade. You cannot win in the NFL without players like Sewell.

6. Miami Dolphins select Ja’Marr Chase (WR/LSU) Chase sat out the 2020 “season” as did Sewell and others who you’ll find here. When we last saw Chase on the field, he was making then-Clemson CB AJ Terrell his son in the National Championship Game. Terrell went on to be a first round pick by the Falcons and was mostly fine in his rookie season. Chase has the potential to be a whole heck of a lot better than “fine.” Think Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Chase isn’t a huge outside receiver. But he’s fast and plays physically for his size (6’0″). And then there’s that tape against AJ Terrell where it’s hard to understate just how much he outplayed Terrell. Miami should stick with Tua and surround him with as many high-end skill position players as possible. Outside of Pitts, it doesn’t get more high end than Ja’Marr Chase in this draft.

7. Detroit Lions select Zach Wilson (QB/BYU) Look, the Lions are a bad football team. Really bad. I don’t think there’s another team in the NFL who is further away from simply being a playoff team than Detroit. They made the weird offseason trade for Jared Goff, who is absolutely nothing more than a middling QB. They hired an absolute weirdo football robot (Dan Campbell) to be their head coach. And they lost their top receiver, Kenny Golladay, in free agency to the Giants. If I’m in this spot, I’m taking the best trade offer on the table and acquiring assets to begin a legitimate 3 year build. I’ve never proposed trades before in a mock and I’m not going to do one here (Denver moving up would make a lot of sense). The other elephant in the room here is that on draft night, Zach Wilson will not be here. As we’ve established, he’s getting drafted IRL by the Jets, which means that on draft night, Detroit should draft the best available quarterback here if they’re not moving back. As for Wilson, I’m not a believer in him as the second best QB in this class. I think he certainly has a high ceiling, but his floor is an Olympic diving pool. It really feels like Wilson through one pass at his pro day and earned himself millions of dollars. And if Zach Wilson is making cross body, 60 yard passes on the regular, I can’t really say his team will be winning games. I’m much more concerned with his accuracy in the short and medium field than if he can do circus tricks with a football (that, by the way, Justin Fields can also do). TLDR: Detroit is a mess and Wilson is either the answer (as a franchise quarterback) or the answer (in the form of the impetus to tear it all down and start from scratch).

8. Carolina Panthers select Devonta Smith (WR/Alabama) Carolina has Teddy Bridgewater (traded to Denver while this was in DRAFTS), PJ Walker, and Sam Darnold on their roster, so taking Mac Jones here would be superfluous. Darnold deserves a chance to play QB for a competent coach (Joe Brady is a decided upgrade over Adam Gase), so I’m taking the Heisman Trophy winner and pairing him with DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to give Darnold a really diverse receiving corps. Smith is a human Dyson vacuum in the slot or outside. Whether he can play on the outside in the NFL at his size (6’0″, 170 LBS) is the biggest question mark. He runs precise routes, he’s a team leader, he’s explosive at the line. He’s everything you want in a receiver. Except he weighs 170 LBS. Carolina has a window to compete with Matt Ryan aging and the Saints in transition. Starting over with a rookie QB just doesn’t feel the way to go here. Especially when you have a talented, young QB who has never had a real shot to be good.

9. Denver Broncos select Micah Parsons (LB/Penn State) If this scenario plays out and the only QB on the board is Mac Jones, Denver should hand in this card in roughly 2.5 seconds. Parsons is a perfect fit for head coach Vic Fangio’s defense, in that he’s an excellent and versatile linebacker. It’s rare to see an inside linebacker go this high in the modern NFL, but Parsons is worth the top 10 pick. He can cover the Travis Kelce’s of the world and tackle the Josh Jacobs’s too. You can build a really good defense around guys like Parsons. And when you play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert 4 times per year, you better have a good defense.

10. Dallas Cowboys select Patrick Surtain II (CB/Alabama) I fall in love with big cover cornerbacks very very easily. And boy did I fall in love with Surtain II. Dallas’s pass defense was abysmal in 2020 and the jury is still out on Trevon Diggs, their second round CB selection in last year’s draft. Diggs’ former Alabama teammate is the prototypical outside man cover corner. He shut down half the field in college. That won’t be the case initially in the NFL. Teams will challenge rookie corners. But I think Surtain has the ball instincts to make teams regret that quickly. He won’t win DROY because the counting stats won’t be there, but the counting stats likely won’t be there because teams will avoid his side of the field.

11. New York Giants select Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL/USC) Whether the Giants want to use Vera-Tucker at Tackle or Guard is their choice. I’d start him at Guard. He’s versatile enough to play almost anywhere on the offensive line and the Giants have loooooong had trouble protecting the QB. The Giants are in an interesting spot here with the QB Jones still on the board (if other mocks are more accurate, it’ll likely be Fields that falls). Vera-Tucker is arguably a reach here depending on who you read. For me, this is a great spot for a versatile offensive lineman with a great motor. But the Giants would be wise to consider acquiring assets, moving down into the lower teens/early 20s (Chicago at 20 would make sense) and hoping that Vera-Tucker is there. And if he’s not, the Giants have a need for an edge rusher, an interior defensive lineman, and even Saquon Barkley insurance.

12. Philadelphia Eagles select Jaylen Waddle (WR/Alabama) Philly finds itself inching closer and closer to Detroit Lions territory with this pick. Last year, with Justin Jefferson on the board, the Eagles inexplicably drafted Jalen Reagor. Two years ago, they used a second round pick on JJ Arcega-Whiteside just a few slots after AJ Brown and a few before DK Metcalf. It’s time for Philly to stop being cute on draft day and take the best available player at a position of real need for them. Luckily for the Eagles, they have a bunch of draft picks this year to fill out a depleted roster. But if they’re going to find out if Jalen Hurts can be their QB long-term, he’ll need more than Reagor and JAW catching passes. Waddle played in just five games last year (only 4 of which he was healthy for) and averaged 20 yards per reception in each game. He is explosive and could find himself in the Pro Bowl solely as a return man in the NFL. He is much more than a specialist though. There really is no gap between Waddle and his Alabama teammate Devonta Smith and I could definitely see Waddle get drafted ahead of his smaller college teammate despite Smith’s collection of college hardware.

13. Los Angeles Chargers select Rashawn Slater (OT/Northwestern) With Waddle off the board, this has to come down to one of the two remaining high-level tackles or Jaycee Horn. Protecting Justin Herbert is imperative which makes this an easy decision. Slater was an absolute brick wall in terms of protecting the QB at Northwestern and would be a Day 1 starter on Herbert’s blind side. (A note on Herbert: I’ve been playing NFL draft guessing games for a long time and once in a while, I’m right, while sometimes I’m wrong. Never have I been more wrong than with Justin Herbert, who I didn’t think was worth a first round pick last year. Herbert showed incredible growth from his time at Oregon and looks to be a franchise cornerstone in Los Angeles. Mea culpa on that one.)

14. Minnesota Vikings select Christian Darrisaw (OT/Virginia Tech) Minnesota is another team, like Philly with about 18 holes to fill on their roster. The board as it played out here, very much fell in their favor. Vera-Tucker would also have been a great pick for them because of his versatility, as Minnesota has real needs on the interior of the offensive line too, but Darrisaw is too good and was too consistent at Virginia Tech to pass up here. He allowed zero sacks and only 5 quarterback hurries in his last season in Blacksburg. Equally good as a run blocker and a pass blocker, he makes perfect sense for the Vikings, who will also have a number of suitors at this point.

(SIDEBAR BREAK: I think it’s very likely that one of the five QBs takes a tumble on Thursday. Here it’s Mac Jones because I think he probably should take a tumble. New England is coming up and the experts seem to think they’ll swing a trade to move up and draft a QB. But there are a bunch of other teams that should also consider moving into the mid-teens if a QB is available (Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, maybe the Saints). And New England has never been shy about needlessly trading back and acquiring draft capital that they’ll waste on kickers and long snappers.)

15. New England Patriots select Mac Jones (QB/Alabama) The Patriots should be much, much better in 2021 than they were in 2020. They spent big in free agency and will get a number of 2020 opt-outs back. One area where they are decidedly not better is QB. Cam Newton was awful in the latter stretches of the season and should absolutely not be the Week 1 starter for any NFL team. New England didn’t pursue an upgrade which has to mean they’re targeting a QB, right? Jones is not the perfect NFL QB. He’s very accurate at all three levels, but was also throwing to two first rounders and handing off to maybe another. And he was playing behind an offensive line with at least three top 60 picks this year. That said, he’s not terribly dissimilar in makeup to Tom Brady. In fact, his arm is probably a little stronger. His relative immobility hurts, but would you rather have a QB that can make all the throws (Jones) or whatever it is that Cam Newton is now?

16. Arizona Cardinals select Jaycee Horn (CB/South Carolina) Patrick Peterson is gone, which at this juncture in his career isn’t the worst thing in the world for Arizona. If Horn falls, he should be the pick. He’s another big (6’1″) man-cover corner with experience playing at the highest level in college football. Look for this pick to lean defense for a franchise that will need to upgrade at all three levels to make a serious playoff run during Kyler Murray’s prime and while DeAndre Hopkins is still around.

17. Las Vegas Raiders select Trevon Moehrig (S/TCU) Vegas fits into the Minnesota/Philly spot of just needing players everywhere. The Raiders decided to essentially layoff their entire offensive line, so that would make sense here, but there’s no real value left on this board. I go with Moehrig who is a versatile safety that can play in the slot (in fact he took as many snaps there in 2020 as he did at safety) and is a sound tackler. Not a sexy “Raiders” pick but a really good football player on a team that needs a lot of those.

18. Miami Dolphins select Zaven Collins (OLB/Tulsa) Miami has 4 of the top fifty picks in this draft, so while some may see drafting Collins here as a reach, I see it as an investment opportunity. He’s an athletic freak at 6’5″. He can play at OLB as an edge rusher or as a coverage backer. Brian Flores is a great defensive coach who should be able to tap into Collins’ size and skill to make him a star, albeit an unconventional one given his size. Had Collins gone to a bigger school, given his measurables, I think you’re looking at a top 10 pick in this draft. He’s really good.

19. Washington Football Team select(s) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB/Notre Dame) This is the perfect scenario for the WFT. Sure, the PERFECT scenario would be Trevor Lawrence inexplicably and impossibly falling to 19. Short of one of the 5 QBs being there (and I honestly don’t even think Mac Jones would be a great pick for them) though, this is the guy to target. Pass rush is not a problem for WFT. Pass coverage in the medium game is though and Owusu-Koramoah solves that problem on day one. He’s explosively quick for his position, something you can credit in part to his relative lack of size (2 inches shorter and 20+ LB lighter than Micah Parsons). QB is going to be an issue for the Football Team in 2021 and beyond. And they could certainly use a WR in this draft. But there is some depth at those positions, especially WR.

20. Chicago Bears select Greg Newsome II (CB/Northwestern) When in doubt, take the local kid? The Bears are in a no-win situation. There’s a fall-off in talent at about this point and they have a lot of needs. They drafted Jaylon Johnson last year and he showed competency as a cornerback. Corner isn’t the most pressing of needs for Chicago (that’s QB), but Newsome is the top player on my board and they could certainly stand to get better in the secondary. The front 6 or 7 should be just fine.

21. Indianapolis Colts select Elijah Moore (WR/Mississippi) …and they don’t even have to think about it very long. Moore is the prototypical slot WR, which I think 10 years ago might have sounded dismissive, but really, how often do teams not run a 3 WR set in the modern NFL. He’s blazingly fast with great hands. Think a richer man’s TY Hilton.

22. Tennessee Titans select Kadarius Toney (WR/Florida) It’s a run on 6’0″ and under SEC wideouts. Toney is so quick he makes Elijah Moore look like late career Wes Welker, who would simply catch the ball and fall down. There are less flashy wideouts, like Rashod Bateman, on the board here, but Toney would give the physical Titans offense a spark that would really make teams less inclined to load the box to stop Derrick Henry. With AJ Brown doing AJ Brown stuff on the outside and Toney doing what he can do (shredding apart the middle of the field), Tennessee would have one of the more dynamic offenses in the AFC.

23. New York Jets select Kwity Paye (Edge/Michigan) The Jets need guys who can get to the QB. Vinny Curry’s 3 total sacks in 2020 just ain’t cutting it. Pair the twitchy and technically sound Paye with Carl Lawson on the outside and, of course, you’ve got Quinnen Williams in the middle and all of a sudden, the Jets front 4 looks way better than it did in 2020.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers select Teven Jenkins (OL/Oklahoma State) I have Jenkins listed as an OL rather than an OT because the knock on him is that he has short arms, typically an indicator that a move to the inside is coming. For Pittsburgh that would be fine because their offensive line was atrocious in 2020 and they lost both of their tackles. Pittsburgh needs a QB and needs one soon. I’d look for them to move up in the second round (from 55) to take the best available QB to sit behind Roethlisberger for a year. This spot is just too early to take a Kellen Mond however.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars select Liam Eichenberg (OG/Notre Dame) Like Jenkins before him, Eichenberg is a short-armer. Otherwise, we’re looking at a guy who should be a sure-fire top 20 pick. As it stands, he might not get selected on Thursday, but whoever does draft him is going to get a versatile lineman who they can try at tackle, should the need be there. Jacksonville is better off with him at guard where he should excel. He registered just under a 90 grade from Pro Football Focus last season. He’s good and I’m not sure why there’s not more chatter about him.

26. Cleveland Browns select Christian Baramore (DT/Alabama) Baramore had an absolutely phenomenal CFP National Championship game. On a field that featured enough players to make their own first round, Baramore might have been the best player out there. The tape doesn’t all look like that for him though, which is why he falls to the Browns who are desperate for an interior force on their defensive line. If they get the guy who ran roughshod over Ohio State’s offensive line, they’ll have the steal of the draft. If they get the balance of good tape-bad tape, they’re still upgrading.

27. Baltimore Ravens select Jayson Oweh (Edge/Penn State) Derek Wolfe is a fine player, but at this stage in his career, he’s just not an every down pass rusher. Enter Oweh, whose measurables (size/speed) are off the charts and whose game tape is…fine. Baltimore has a way of getting the best out of their guys and I think this is a perfect landing spot for an uber talented guy who just didn’t put it all together in college.

28. New Orleans Saints select Caleb Farley (CB/Virginia Tech) Do this little exercise six months ago and Farley isn’t escaping the top 15. His medicals are a concern. Sciatica. Herniated discs. Multiple surgeries. He sat out the 2020 season so there’s no fresh tape on him. This is the riskiest pick in the first round. If Farley is healthy enough to go, the Saints are getting the best corner outside of Surtain, at a position of need. If he’s not, a team that has a lot of nagging little holes will have wasted valuable draft capital.

29. Green Bay Packers select Dillon Radunz (OT/North Dakota State) Two NDSU players in the first round and only one Clemson player. Go figure. Anyway, wide receiver would be a smart pick here, but I’m just not that high on Rashod Bateman and my most recent memory of Green Bay is watching their offensive line get annihilated by the Bucs in the playoffs. The window to win with Aaron Rodgers is closing and who knows what Jordan Love will be. Better to wait on one of the second round wideouts and protect their future Hall of Famer better than they did in 2020.

30. Buffalo Bills select Jaelen Phillips (Edge/Miami) As versatile of an edge rusher as you’ll find, Buffalo could move Phillips inside at times should the need arise. Buffalo drafted AJ Epenesa last year to mixed results. The one area where the Bills need to get better is pressuring the QB. They just might want to get Phillips (who played at Miami after transferring from UCLA) some warm weather gear.

31. Baltimore Ravens select Terrance Marshall Jr. (WR/LSU) Marshall is a big, fast outside receiver, which is arguably the position most lacking for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson needs guys to throw to and especially guys who can get downfield. Offensive tackle is certainly a consideration after Baltimore traded Orlando Brown Jr. for this pick, but the board has shook out in a way where I think at 58 the Ravens will be able to solidify their line with a bit of a project. And I trust this front office more than any other to select well.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Asante Samuel Jr. (CB/Florida State) No team is perfect, certainly, but Tampa is so good that they just won the Super Bowl with a 43 year old QB who has lost a significant portion of his arm strength and has the mobility of a cinder block. There’s a line of thinking that they need to look to the post-Brady era, but I’m of the mind that they need to shore up the immediate areas of weakness and one of them is CB. Samuel can play the slot if needed and provides depth at a position that had a topsy-turvy 2020. The re-signing of Antonio Brown made this a no-brainer to me.

The next QB off the board should be Kellen Mond, who is built in the Dak Prescott mold. He’s got an incredible arm and good size. Someone of the Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago group of teams who missed out on one of the five should target Mond in the middle of the 2nd round.

It was hard to find a spot for one of the running backs in this draft. It’s simply the nature of the NFL. Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams would all have been first rounders in the past. Any one of the three could easily be an Offensive Rookie of the Year in the right scheme, especially Williams who I think will catch a lot of people off guard.

The only receiver who I have falling is Rashod Bateman who was just too inconsistent for me at Minnesota. He’s not particularly big, nor is he particularly fast. He’s a good route runner, but we saw what being a good route runner can get you in the NFL in Jerry Jeudy last year. I want guys who can get themselves open and with guys like Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney, Bateman slips to round 2. He should still be a productive enough receiver in the NFL, but he isn’t going to be a star.

My second round (and later) wideouts to watch are Rondale Moore, who will be used as a gadget guy because he’s basically my size, D’Wayne Eskridge another in the mold of Elijah Moore and Kadarius Toney who is being overlooked, I’d imagine, because he played college in Kalamazoo, and Tylan Wallace who is a physical wideout for his size and with the right team looks to be a long-term star in the slot.

I’ll be very interested to see who drafts Gregory Rousseau, a giant edge rusher from Miami who sat out the 2020 season and has seen his draft stock slip significantly. He’s a freak in the mold of Calais Campbell, but I think that kind of size will scare off some teams into thinking he won’t have the speed to be a productive rusher in the NFL.

I’ll probably have more thoughts on Twitter @jason_botelho. Enjoy the Draft.

Good Young Baseballing Men

/ Jason / 2 Comments

In 2012, I wrote the first installment of my MLB 25 and Under team. Remember Barack Obama’s first presidential term? Things were different then. 

That rotation (Kershaw, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Sale, Darvish) turned out to be really, really good, winning multiple Cy Young awards, as well as a couple World Series MVPs (and having a good Twitter presence, Yu). On offense, I selected Brett Lawrie as my third baseman and later in the post, questioned whether Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt were good enough all-around hitters. It was, let’s say, a mixed bag. 

I’d like to think my evaluation eye has gotten better over the years. One thing that has certainly gotten better is the number of really young players earning roles as valuable full-time Major League contributors. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen three prospects make their Major League debuts in the playoffs. Two of them are pitchers. That’s literally never happened before. 

The biggest reason, I think, for this is that the 2020 season is a baseball fever dream. Teams are playing playoff games in empty stadiums that aren’t their own. Everyone is wearing masks in the dugout (some even covering their noses!). Perhaps most importantly though, rosters are bigger. Teams are playing games with a 28 man roster, which I am absolutely in support of going forward. The more the merrier. Especially when the “more” is more supremely talented 20 year olds whose service time clocks get to start running earlier than they have in the past. Because as much as I enjoy the minor leagues (unlike Rob Manfred), Amarillo, Texas is no place for Mackenzie Gore. 

We’ll probably never see an under-25 rotation quite like the 2012 iteration, but the guys you’ll see below will have plenty of time to prove themselves as equals to the Strasburgs and Sales of the world. Maybe not Kershaw, but that’s no slight to anybody. 

Quick note: eligibility, as previously established in the 2017 post, is that a player has to have been 25 year old or younger on the day the regular season ended (September 27, 2020). Apologies to all players born on or before September 27, 1994. 

Starting Pitchers (we’ll carry six because this is a 28 man roster):

Shane Bieber (Age 25) is a no-brainer in this category. He’s your presumptive AL Cy Young award winner after producing a gaudy 3.2 bWAR in just 12 starts in 2020. He punched out 122 in 77.1 IP. His ERA+ was 281. His stats were just completely off the charts. Had this been a 162 game season and he produced stats like this, we’d be talking about the greatest pitching season in modern MLB history. He’s improved dramatically in each of his three seasons and looks to be the cornerstone of the Cleveland rotation until they trade him in his first arbitration year. 

Germán Márquez (Age 25) has developed into a well-above league average pitcher despite pitching in Denver. He’ll give up a lot of homers, but has kept his career walk rate under 3 per 9 IP, which is not outstanding, but is a key to pitchers having success at Coors. Of concern, his K/9 rate has dropped each of the past two seasons, but given his sustained track record of success, he was the second surest pick. 

Jack Flaherty (Age 24) was excellent in 2019. He was not excellent in 2020. His K/9 rate stayed steady, but when he wasn’t striking out batters, he was giving up a lot of hits (1.2/9 more than in 2019). Likewise, he walked one more batter per 9. I’m willing to bet on 2020 being an aberration for the very talented Flaherty. 

Zach Plesac (Age 25) did a really selfish and stupid thing in 2020. It’s possible that Plesac could win multiple Cy Youngs in his career and all anyone will remember was Zach’s Night Out. When he wasn’t at the alternate camp site being punished for his stupidity, Plesac was outstanding. His WHIP was microscopic. His K/BB ratio was better than 9/1. The only thing worth concern with Plesac is his FIP, which is over a run higher than his ERA for his career. Even still, he’ll be a fixture of this rotation along with Shane Bieber, until they trade him in his first arbitration year.

And now…the rookies. The list of rookie starting pitchers on my preliminary list was long. Very long. Sixto Sanchez, Triston McKenzie, Nate Pearson, Tarik Skubal, Brady Singer, Casey Mize were just some of the names on that list. I went with Dustin May and Jesus Luzardo. 

Jesus Luzardo (Age 23) beat out Skubal in the battle of the lefties. I’m very high on Skubal, but Luzardo simply has the better stuff and the better command right now. I fully expect his unspectacular 2020 numbers to improve with a normal season in 2021. 

Dustin May (Age 23) was actually a no-brainer. The Dodgers have jerked him around a bit, as they tend to do. He should be a rotation fixture for the Dodgers for a very long time. To my eye, he has the best stuff of any young starter in baseball. He generates incredible movement on each of his pitches. He’s not striking out the number of hitters you would expect from a pitcher with his arsenal. And like Plesac, his ERA and FIP are wildly off. But when you watch May pitch, it just looks like you’re watching an ace work. If the Dodgers can just leave him in the rotation every fifth day in 2021 (assuming there is a 2021), you’re looking at a guy who can compete for a Cy Young. He’s that good. 

Bullpen (we’ll carry 8):

I’ve written this before, but the bullpen is the hardest part of this team to predict success for. A good reliever probably throws, at most, two elite pitches. Once the League figures out just one of those pitches, he becomes a dramatically less effective pitcher. A few of the guys on this list are currently fringe starting pitchers, but given the way baseball is going, having a reliever capable of getting six outs is increasingly more valuable. 

Brusdar Graterol (Age 22) should be the Dodgers’ closer already, but they’re willing to die by Kenley Jansen’s 88 mph cutter. Graterol came into the Majors as a starter, but was promptly moved to the bullpen when he arrived in Los Angeles (after the Boston Red Sox inexplicably didn’t want him…literally…they could have just had him for free). Graterol’s arsenal consists of a deadly 101 mph fastball that generates great movement. He projects as a high-upside closer. 

James Karinchak (Age 25) came a bit out of nowhere in 2020 after facing just 4 batters in 2019. He entered 2020 outside of Keith Law’s Top 20 Cleveland prospects. Likewise, he found himself outside of MLB Pipeline’s Top 20 list. So why is he here? Well, he struck out 17.7 batters per 9 IP in 2020. He also walked WAAAAY too many batters and there’s little belief in the scouting world that he can fix that. But that kind of strikeout ability doesn’t grow on trees. He has a well-above average fastball and curveball and if he can find some sort of command on that fastball, he moves into the elite reliever category. He’s worth betting on. 

Cal Quantrill (Age 25) is Karinchak’s teammate and fits into the category of “tweener.” Quantril is not quite good enough to go through a Major League lineup twice, nevermind three times, but he’s shown effectiveness as a multi-inning option, producing an excellent, if not probably unrealistic, 200 ERA+ in 2020 and a 2.25 conventional ERA. He won’t overpower anybody with stuff, but he’s missed bats, giving up less than 1 hit per inning. 

Caleb Fergueson (Age 24) is a lefty specialist for the Dodgers who didn’t suffer with the 3 batter minimum rule in 2020, dramatically lowering his walk rate and pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA. 

Adrian Morejón (Age 21) is here for potential. He’s young but has yet to show the kind of pitching skill that saw the Padres spend $11 million to sign him in 2016. To date, he’s given up far too much contact, especially home run contact, surrendering 7 homers in just 19.1 IP in 2020. But he strikes out 11.6 per 9 IP, so the stuff is there. 

Freddy Peralta (Age 24) is a converted starter (converted in that he failed miserably as a starter). Halfway through 2019, the Brewers realized that Peralta was awful in the first inning and moved him to the tweener bullpen role. He was very good in that role this year, pitching to a 2.41 FIP (his higher ERA indicates he was unlucky), while striking out 14.4 per 9, while surrendering just 2 homers all season. He should be a high-leverage bullpen arm for Milwaukee and, to me, is one of the surest things in this bullpen. 

Garrett Crochet (Age 21) has thrown exactly 6 innings in his career and might need Tommy John surgery. Still, he faced 22 batters and allowed 4 to reach base. None scored. Chicago could try him in the rotation in 2021 if healthy, but he’s a fairly limited pitcher in terms of arsenal and with Giolito, Kopech, Dunning, Keuchel, and Cease already there, he’d be much more valuable as a lefty reliever with strikeout ability than a starting pitcher for the Charlotte Knights. 

Genesis Cabrera (Age 24) celebrates a birthday as I write this capsule on October 10. Happy birthday Genesis! You were the last man to make this roster, just edging out Astros reliever Enoli Paredes. Genesis is a real boom or bust pitcher. He pitched to a dangerously high FIP in 2020, despite having only a 2.42 ERA. He’s a strikeout pitcher (like most of the guys here…that’s where upside lies in bullpens) with walk problems. Example: he only allowed 4 hits per 9 IP this season. But he walked 16 batters in 22 total IP. If his bullpen partner Alex Reyes was age-eligible, he would be here. He’s not though. 

Starting Lineup

Catchers: Will Smith (Age 25), Sean Murphy (Age 26…but 25 on the last day of the season)

Will Smith gets the nod here as the everyday catcher. He is, statistically, the second worst pitch framer in baseball. He is, however, an outstanding hitter, perhaps only behind JT Realmuto at this point in terms of overall hit tool. He walked nearly as often as he struck out in 2020, while hitting 8 homers, with a .401 OBP. Just off-the-charts offensive numbers for a young catcher. 

Murphy, by contrast, is an outstanding pitch framer who is in the next tier of hitting catchers below Smith and Realmuto. He should be Oakland’s starting catcher until they trade him in his final year of arbitration, in the way that they do.  

Infielders: Cody Bellinger (Age 25), Ozzie Albies (Age 23), Fernando Tatis Jr. (Age 21), Yoan Moncada (Age 25), Rafael Devers (Age 23), Gleyber Torres (Age 23), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Age 21), Wander Franco (Age 19) 

I may be wrong, but I think Bellinger is the only player in my lifetime who is a true Gold Glove centerfielder that also plays first base regularly. It’s a weird thing the Dodgers do with their roster. As I mentioned with the Dustin May blurb, they jerk a lot of players around, yo-yoing them between pitching roles and moving them all around the diamond. This is due in large part to a bloated Major League roster (kind of the rare case of too much talent being a bad thing). In some cases, it stagnates development (see: Lux, Gavin). And in other cases, like Bellinger, it allows people like me to question whether offensive struggles stem from inconsistency elsewhere in terms of job expectations. Look, Bellinger is coming off of a 2019 MVP campaign, so I’d be nuts to not have him on this team. But he sucked (comparatively) in 2020. He had an OPS under .800 for the first time in his career. His on-base percentage was a pedestrian .333. He was about 15 homers off of his 2019 pace. Basically, he regressed everywhere. I think LA would be very wise to just play him at first base full time. Yes, he’s valuable in CF. But he’s more valuable as a 9 WAR first baseman. 

Bellinger’s backup at first is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I want to believe in Vladito. I really do. That’s why he’s here. It’s easy to forget that he’s only 21. So far, he’s been a case of the production not matching the hype. And it’s not like he’s not producing. In fact, his 2020 season looked very similar to Bellinger’s. And now that he’s off of 3B full-time, he’s not a total defensive liability for the Blue Jays. Next season (assuming it’s a relatively normal 162 game season) will be an important year for his development. I’m betting on him producing the kind of numbers (.400 OBP, 30 HR) that we expected from him. 

Over at second, we’ve got Ozzie Albies getting the starting nod. Ozzie only played in 29 regular season games this season, so it’s hard to get too in the weeds over his sub-100 OPS+. He hit 24 homers each of the previous two seasons and plays a good enough defensive second base to make him a 5 WAR per season player. Spectacular? No. Consistently reliable and worth being the starting second baseman on a fake team? Certainly. 

Backing Ozzie up is Gleyber Torres who took a very concerning step back in 2020. Coming off of a 38 homer campaign in the full 2019 season, Torres slugged 3 in 2020. 3. If you want to build that out to a full 162 game season it’s roughly not a lot of homers. Previously, Torres was a second baseman in New York, but with the departure of Didi Gregorious, he moved over to SS and cost the Yankees nearly 1 win defensively. The bright spot is that he still walked and got on base at a .356 clip. But the drop in power is something to watch and the clumsy defense at SS is enough of a reason to move him back to 2B full time. 

At third base, I’ve got Moncada and Devers, two players who put up monster numbers in 2019 (a combined 57 home runs with them sporting OPSs of .916 and .915 respectively). Then 2020 happened and like most things in 2020, they weren’t very good. Moncada’s power numbers were way down and frankly, he’s likely never going to be a 30 HR corner infielder. But he plays a fine defensive 3B. Devers, on the other hand, had the power numbers, hitting 11 homers in 57 games, but his defense at 3B stinks and he doesn’t possess nearly the same plate discipline as Moncada. The starting nod goes to the White Sox third baseman. 

When it came to the shortstop position, I didn’t have to do much thinking about the starter. It’s Fernando Tatis Jr. every day until he’s no longer eligible, much like with Mike Trout in previous iterations. Everything that Fernando Tatis Jr. does feels like appointment viewing. In the field he is dazzling. Does he need to improve his throwing to first? Sure. And I have no doubt he will. But if you hit a ball in his general vicinity, the ball will find its way to him. The ball wants to be close to Fernando. And it should. As a 21 year old, his numbers at the plate were jaw-dropping. His homer pace is equivalent to a 46 HR full season, with 30 SB to boot. As a leadoff hitter! If not for a late-season slump, we would be talking about a 21 year old NL MVP. Barring injury, we’re looking at the man who Major League Baseball should be marketing to every planet in the solar system for the next 15 years. He’s charismatic, beautiful, smart, humble, and has the ability to be a generational talent on the field. Of course, MLB will treat Pete Alonso like a superstar instead.

The question of who to back up Fernando was challenging and came down to Bo Bichette, Gavin Lux, and Wander Franco. I went with the 19 year old who has never played a game above Advanced-A ball. Franco is the consensus top prospect in baseball and has been for what feels like two seasons. He walks twice as much as he strikes out. He’s a switch hitter. He’s incredibly sound in the field for a 19 year old playing shortstop. He is, of course, all potential and Bichette has been, when healthy, a very good Major League shortstop. And Lux has performed at a higher tier of the developmental system to astounding production. But until he shows regression (and there’s no reason to believe he will), this should be Franco’s spot. 

Outfielders: Ronald Acuña Jr. (Age 22), Luis Robert (Age 23), Juan Soto (Age 21), Eloy Jimenez (Age 23)

I could write a lot of words about this outfield. I’m starting Robert in center where he’s a defensive superstar, shifting Acuña Jr. over to right and keeping Juan Soto at his natural left field, with Eloy DHing in my lineup on most days. 

Starting with Robert, he was a marvel in centerfield. He uses his elite speed and instincts to track every ball with precision. There isn’t a catch that he can’t make. At the plate, he looked like a rookie. His power is prodigious and when he hits the ball, the ball goes far. He missed the ball a lot in his rookie campaign, striking out 73 times in 227 PA. That said, we’re talking about a rookie who over a full season would be a 30 HR, 25 SB, all-world defensive centerfielder. If he becomes a more disciplined hitter, the American League is in serious trouble. Because…

standing to his right is Eloy Jiménez. In his second Major League season, Eloy’s offensive numbers improved across the board. Improved slash line. Higher home rate. Lower strikeout rate. He’s developing into the perfect cleanup hitter. Whereas Robert has potential to be a George Springer-type leadoff guy, Eloy is never going to be a patient enough hitter and frankly doesn’t need to be. His game is power and he has a lot of it (38 HR pace this season). Defensively, as I noted, he’ll be the DH on this team. 

And then there’s Juan and Ronald. At least in my mind, they’ll always be tethered together. They both took the NL by storm as rookies and have both become superstars before turning 23, with Soto being a valuable contributor to a World Series champion and Acuña potentially on the way to doing the same in 2020. There’s nothing Ronald Acuña cannot do on the baseball field, besides avoid getting hit by Miami Marlins pitchers. If not for Luis Robert’s world-class defense, I’d be more than comfortable leaving Acuña Jr. in CF. He bats leadoff for the Braves but would be an exceptional number 2 hitter, batting behind a lighter hitting leadoff man with great on-base abilities. His power is a little wasted as evidenced by his 2:1 RBI:HR ratio. But that’s a manager problem, not a Ronald problem. 

Juan Soto, at the age of 21, put up the Bondsian slash line of .351/.490/.695 this season. He walked more than he struck out. He led the Majors with a 1.185 OPS. He was 21 years old. I wrote last season that we (society) do a terrible job of appreciating greatness in the moment. Case in point, Soto’s rookie season as a 19 year old where he clocked a .406 OBP.  Soto is on his way to becoming a multi-time MVP and a first-ballot Hall of Fame player and he’s only played 3 years in the Majors. His first three seasons are right there with Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mike Trout. And sure, some stars burn out. Soto doesn’t look like that kind of star. He’s destined for greatness and to speak subjectively, I really appreciate having him on my team (this one and the Washington Nationals).

Batting Order: 

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.- SS
  • Ronald Acuña Jr- RF
  • Juan Soto- LF
  • Eloy Jiménez-DH 
  • Cody Bellinger- 1B
  • Yoan Moncada- 3B
  • Will Smith- C
  • Ozzie Albies- 2B
  • Luis Robert- CF

2020 MLB Expansion Team

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Last week, MLB Trade Rumors published a piece that loosely took the concept of an expansion draft to build a brand new MLB team from scratch.

In a true expansion draft, each MLB team would be able to “protect” a certain number of their players (10-15, probably) from being selected. No such restriction was placed here.

I decided to try my hand at it and gave myself the added challenge of building a team with a 2020 payroll below the MLB average of about $133 million. Of course, with a 26-man roster, four teams would remain untouched. For the sake of my exercise they are Baltimore, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Texas. Only players with accrued MLB service time are eligible. Here is the team I came up with:

Catcher: JT Realmuto (PHI)
First Baseman: Cody Bellinger (LAD)
Second Baseman: Gleyber Torres (NYY)
Shortstop: Trevor Story (COL)
Third Baseman: Rafael Devers (BOS)
Left Fielder: Juan Soto (WAS)
Center Fielder: Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
Right Fielder: Mike Trout (LAA)
Designated Hitter: Yordan Alvarez (HOU)

Bench Catcher: Wilson Contreras (CHC)
Bench: Whit Merrifield (KC)
Bench: Ketel Marte (ARI)
Bench UTL: Jeff McNeil (NYM)

SP: Jack Flaherty (STL)
SP: Luis Castillo (CIN)
SP: Lucas Giolito (CHW)
SP: Jose Berrios (MIN)
SP: Shane Bieber (CLE)

6th Starter/Long Relief: Marco Gonzales (SEA)
7th Starter/Long Relief: Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
RP: Josh Hader (MIL)
RP: Kirby Yates (SDP)
RP: Liam Hendriks (OAK)
RP: Ken Giles (TOR)
RP: Nick Anderson (TB)
RP: Tony Watson (SFG)

Total 2020 Payroll: $123,486,566.00

As you can see, I spent the bulk of my money on the bullpen and offense. My ideal batting order would look like this:

Ronald Acuna Jr.
Mike Trout
Cody Bellinger
Juan Soto
Trevor Story
Yordan Alvarez
Rafael Devers
JT Realmuto
Gleyber Torres

I think the bullpen is unparalleled in baseball. To be able to go Hendriks to Yates to Hader is immense. If that fails, you still have Ken Giles and Nick Anderson available (with Tony Watson serving only as a LOOGY), as well as two long relief pitchers from both sides of the rubber (including the very underrated Alcantara).

The starting rotation is young and somewhat unproven, and is most glaringly lacking a lefty. My last pick was between Nick Anderson and Blake Snell from the Rays. I went with the much cheaper Anderson because I don’t view Snell, with his injury history, as that big of an upgrade over my number 5 starter, Shane Bieber.

This was a fun, fairly easy, mostly mindless exercise that took up an hour of quarantime. And I think my team is better than the MLBTR one. What say you? (No one will comment on this.)

2020 NFL Mock Draft…

/ Jason / Leave a comment

…or how I thought I’d never do another one of these.

Five years ago, I wrote my “last” NFL Mock Draft. Not long after that, I stopped watching American football. And then I moved to Oklahoma in 2018 and dipped my toes back into the waters of college football. And then the Rams and Chiefs played that Monday Night Football game and the FOMO was too much for me.

Last year I dove headfirst back into oblong-shaped ball sport, much to Amanda’s chagrin. I’ll spare any of you that read this the details of why I stopped watching and why I ultimately returned to watching. All I’ll say is that I watched and read a lot of football content last year and have strongly-held opinions that will be right (Nick Foles being a successful NFL quarterback) and ones that will be wrong (Marcus Mariota being a successful NFL quarterback) regarding this most peculiar of NFL Drafts.

I’m always torn on how to do these things. I could just give in to the groupthink or I could go on my own instincts and see how right I am in five years. Or find some middle ground. This will be more of the latter but a little of the former. I’m going to conduct this as though I was the GM of each team. In other words, this will not be a mock draft you’ll look at on draft night and think “wow he guessed who these teams would pick very well.” My intention is to not mimic every single thing I read from professional prognosticators. That’s boring for me. This is more about looking back in a few years and feeling a smug sense of self-satisfaction. Or shame. Let’s get to it.

Number 1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow (QB/LSU)
Joe Burrow is the best college quarterback I’ve seen since Andrew Luck, who was probably the best college quarterback I’ve seen in my lifetime. The Bengals ranked 30th in offensive efficiency last year and it’s abundantly clear that Andy Dalton is not the answer at QB. Cincinnati lacks a lot of talent and doesn’t have another first round pick. Trading back would make a lot of sense if there wasn’t a franchise QB staring at them. But there is. Burrow makes every throw on the field. He can move in the pocket. He can read defenses. He has the size. He tore apart Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson like he was playing Alabama State, Georgia Southern, and Furman.

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young (EDGE/Ohio State)
The Redskins are in the worst possible position in this draft. They need desperate help at the skill positions. If there was a Calvin Johnson in this draft, this would be the easiest pick. Washington NEEDS to move back in the first round and draft CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy. They probably won’t though. Instead, they’ll draft Chase Young, an EDGE rusher who fills a need for a live body on the defensive front. I am not necessarily this high on Chase Young. He surely has the measurables you want in an edge rusher. He’s quick and twitchy. And in college he manhandled offensive tackles. He also disappeared in Ohio State’s two biggest games, with 2 total tackles and 0 sacks against Clemson and 0 sacks in the B10 Championship game against a Wisconsin team that he had previously wrecked for 4 sacks earlier in the season. Then again, he missed a month of the season and still finished with 16.5 sacks. He’s more of an enigma to me than to professional scouts who love him and rate him as the top prospect in this draft.

3. Detroit Lions: Isaiah Simmons (LB/S/Clemson)
Isaiah Simmons doesn’t necessarily fill an immediate need, but he’s a Swiss Army knife. He can play at all three levels of the defense. He’s fast enough, strong enough, and smart enough in coverage. I think there are two elite, Hall of Fame-type talents in this draft and I think they’re Burrow and Simmons. There’s no player quite like Simmons on the defensive side of the ball in today’s specialized NFL. I’m so excited to see what he can do at the next level. Matt Patricia’s job is on the line in 2020. Detroit is in a perfect position to have their choice of at least 2 of the draft’s top players at each level of defense. Simmons will allow the “genius” Patricia to use the ultimate defensive tool in a variety of schemes. After spending a decade playing against Brian Urlacher, it will be nice for Detroit to have their own, even more athletic version of the Hall of Famer.

4. New York Giants: Tristen Wirfs (OT/Iowa)
Every mock draft on the face of the Earth has the Giants taking Isaiah Simmons (with the Lions taking Jeff Okudah). And sure, the Giants were bad on both sides of the football in 2019. What was the biggest issue towards the latter half of Eli Manning’s career? A porous offensive line that left the unathletic Manning flopping around, flinging floating passes into opposing linebackers’ hands. The Giants invested in their future last year in drafting Daniel Jones, who appears to be a capable quarterback. But you don’t buy a fancy car and not get good insurance on it. Wirfs is a versatile tackle who can play strong or weak side tackle. He’s a specimen of a man with the athleticism to keep Jones’ pocket clean for the next decade.

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa (QB/Alabama)
The Dolphins have had arguably the most productive offseason of any team in the NFL. They’re in a great position to challenge the Bill for the AFC East championship in 2020, given their additions on defense. What this team has needed since Dan Marino retired is their QB of the future. There’s a world of uncertainty about Tua’s health and given the lack of in-person workouts and medical evaluations, there’s a risk in drafting him here. Miami however has the luxury of possessing two other first round picks. They have other needs on offense especially on the offensive line and at wideout. Tua is a better QB than Justin Herbert. The tape is there. It’s all there. Anybody who is writing that Herbert is a better QB is just bored. Herbert had plenty of time to prove himself against the weak defenses of the Pac 12 and he did, sometimes. Other times, he looked like a future third-string NFL QB. Tua is a star who can throw the ball accurately to every level. He’s worth the risk here.

6. Unwanted Football Team Chargers: Kristian Fulton (CB/LSU)
Alright, here is where things go off the rails a bit. The absolute consensus is that Jeff Okudah is the top CB in this draft. In fact, I’ve seen Fulton, a sure-fire Top 15 pick six months ago, go in the second round of some mock drafts. He is, by my eye, the best press coverage corner in this draft. He ran a 4.46 at the Combine. And he faced elite talent in college. The Chargers were a mess in the secondary in 2019 and they are in need of a franchise QB, but this is way too high to draft Justin Herbert.

7. Carolina Panthers: Jeff Okudah (CB/Ohio State)
Okudah will likely be a top 5 pick on Thursday and I’m not necessarily knocking him by having him go at 7. If Fulton is the best press corner, Okudah is right there behind him. Okudah is not as quick as Fulton and committed a number of pass interference penalties on deep balls in college, something you don’t want in the NFL where the penalty is a more severe spot foul. He’s still built perfectly for the position and would be an immediate upgrade for this porous secondary.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Mekhi Becton (OT/Louisville)
Becton is just an absolute freak of an athlete. He’s 6’7”. He weighs 364 pound. He ran a 5.1 in the 40-yard dash. He also allegedly failed a drug test at the Combine, which if you think that matters, remember Laremy Tunsil. Arizona is set on the left side of the line with D.J. Humphries, but think about the security Becton would provide Kyler Murray by holding down the right side. The Cardinals have done an excellent job upgrading their offense this offseasons, solely by adding DeAndre Hopkins for pennies on the dollar. The defense should be the focus in the rest of this draft, especially if they’re able to get one of Becton or Wirfs.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown (DT/Auburn)
This is a team in some kind of disarray as we approach the draft. In the last year they signed Nick Foles to be the franchise QB, lost him to injury, replaced him with Gardner Minshew III, saw GMIII become a fan favorite, had Foles return and struggle, went back to GMIII, sent Foles off to Chicago, franchise tagged Yannick Ngakoue, much to his chagrin, continue to look for trades for Ngakoue, and had franchise running back Leonard Fournette recently talk about how the team needs to improve at the QB position, which now sees Fournette, the fourth overall pick in the Deshaun Watson/Patrick Mahomes draft, on the trading block. Things aren’t great in Jacksonville. The defensive line is in shambles, after they traded Calais Campbell and let Marcell Dareus walk. Brown should be a day-one starter at DT for the Jags. He’s a proven run stuffer with the athleticism to move around the line and a big upgrade over, um, Abry Jones, who is, I assure you, a real person.

10. Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas (OT/Georgia)
The Browns have an immediate need at LT and while this is a bit of a reach for Thomas, who is a good but not great tackle prospect, the Browns are in an awkward position at 10 in terms of filling needs with talented players. The jury is still very much out on Baker Mayfield. The Brown need to give him the opportunity to succeed. But the top player on my board who is available here is Javon Kinlaw and with Sheldon Richardson at DT in the 3-4, that’s not a logical fit. The next guy is CeeDee Lamb, but with Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, the Browns don’t need to add more skill position players. Ideally, a team below them wants to move up to draft Justin Herbert or Jordan Love, allowing Cleveland to move back, get Thomas, and acquire an additional 3rd and 4th round pick. But we don’t do trades here.

11. New York Jets: CeeDee Lamb (WR/Oklahoma)
Wide receiver should be a no-brainer here for the Jets. Unless there are trades and I don’t foresee a lot of those on draft night, given the remote-ness, both Lamb and Jerry Jeudy should be available at 11. For me, the choice is Lamb because he has the size, hands, and strength to be a WR1 right away. He’s not the route-runner that Jeudy is, but Jeudy had a mild case of the dropsys last season and doesn’t have nearly the strength in the open field that Lamb does. The Jets have a lot of holes to fill on defense, but adding a star wideout gives Sam Darnold the best opportunity he’s had to prove he was worthy of being a top 5 draft pick.

12. Transient Raiders: Jerry Jeudy (WR/Alabama)
I fully expect the Raiders to do something weird here, like draft Henry Ruggs III or reach for a QB that Jon Gruden has a real crush on that would have otherwise been available in Round 3. In the logical world that I live in, Jeudy is the smart choice. I talked about him above. He runs crisp, precise routes. He’s not blazingly fast or strong or big. He profiles as a very consistent WR. And remember how the Raiders had that really good WR from Alabama that they inexplicably traded? Now they can replace him.

13. Santa Clara 49ers (from Indy): Josh Jones (OT/Houston)
The 49ers got this pick by trading DeForest Buckner to the Colts and you can consider this a case of the rich getting richer. Buckner is a great player, but getting a top 13 pick for him was some kind of devil magic. San Francisco has done a great job of acquiring talent in the draft under John Lynch. This pick is kind of like a “free play” for them. Jones didn’t face top-end talent in the AAC in college, but he’s a really athletic tackle who can both pass and run block and doesn’t need to start right away, with Joe Staley at LT. In one year, people might scoff at this pick and think “what a waste…he barely played.” And then 3 years down the line, he could be an All-Pro tackle. There’s a tremendous amount of upside here and little risk for a team that’s stacked and coming off of a Super Bowl appearance.

14. Tom Brady Buccaneers: Jedrick Willis Jr. (OT/Alabama)
Who knows what the heck this team thinks it is. The defense is good, not great, in the front 7. The secondary is a nightmare and I could see them going for a CB or Safety here too, but let’s just assume that a team with a 43 year old immobile QB needs protection for him in the most immediate sense. They’re left at the tackle position with the biggest question mark when it comes to pass blocking, in Willis. They’d certainly love for Thomas or Becton to fall here. This is the nightmare scenario for Tampa Bay. If the draft plays out similar to this and Thomas and Becton aren’t here, I’d imagine Tampa trying to move back, drafting in the secondary, and picking up a tackle in Round 2, where there should be some decent options available, like Boise State’s Ezra Cleveland. In a world without trades, they take their chances on the talented, physically impressive, and athletic Willis and hope that his pass blocking has improved, somehow, during a time when he would have received no in-person coaching. Good luck Tom!

15. Denver Broncos: Justin Jefferson (WR/LSU)
We are assuming that John Elway is truthful in his support for Drew Lock. Given how the OT situation has played out above (i.e. There’s now no one left), Denver needs to give Lock a big weapon in Jefferson, who is coming off of an insane 111 reception/18 TD season at LSU. He’s the absolute perfect slot receiver for the modern NFL, with great quickness and some size and really steady hands. And he doesn’t lack in the route-running department either. He should be a really high-end consistent pass-catcher for a long time in the NFL, assuming that Drew Lock can put the ball in his vicinity. Which, I guess we’ll see.

16. Atlanta Falcons: Jaylon Johnson (CB/Utah)
Defensive secondary is an absolute no-brainer for the Falcons, who were dreadful against the pass in 2019. I’m much higher on Johnson than any professional evaluations. He stood up well in the pass-heavy Pac12. He’s a very aggressive cover corner, with great feet. Truly, the Falcons could draft any of Johnson, CJ Henderson, AJ Terrell, or Trevon Diggs here and it would be a huge upgrade over whatever it is they got last year.

17. Dallas Cowboys: CJ Henderson (CB/Florida)
Dallas lost Byron Jones in free agency, so Henderson is a great need-fit. Henderson has the prototypical body of an NFL corner. He’s really quick and excellent in 1-1 coverage. The biggest question mark, and why I have him ranked below Jaylon Johnson, is he was not good last year. Even accounting for SEC teams avoiding his side of the field, Henderson had 0 INTs and just 32 tackles. Still, the talent is absolutely there.

18. Miami Dolphins (from Pittsburgh): Javon Kinlaw (DT/South Carolina)
The Dolphins have 3 first round picks and are sitting in a spot where an elite DT has fallen primarily because the teams above them have more immediate needs. Kinlaw is not the 18th best player in this draft. I have him ranked in my top 10. He’s a monster DT who consistently gets to the QB. He’ll be a huge upgrade on Day 1 over Davon Godchaux and leaves Miami with still another first round pick to improve on the offensive side of the ball.

19. Transient Raiders (from Chicago): Grant Delpit (S/LSU)
The Raiders were the worst defensive team in the NFL in 2019, in terms of efficiency, and have done little in the offseason to improve on that side of the ball. Delpit has seen his draft stock plummet after a nagging ankle injury saw him miss time and be more ineffective in the latter half of last season. Before the injury, he was a consensus Top 10 pick. He’s a big safety at 6’3” who is more of a hitter than a tackler. He’s also a ball-hawk. There’s certainly some Tyrann Mathieu in his game, lazy LSU-comp aside. The Raiders have the draft capital, with three more picks in the top 100 to take a gamble on a hugely talented player like Delpit.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LA Rams): AJ Terrell (CB/Clemson)
The Jaguars use their second pick to continue to shore up their porous defense. Terrell is a risky prospect at CB. His measurables are off the charts. He’s big, he’s very fast, and he’s a true man-to-man corner. He also vanished at times for Clemson, most problematically in the National Championship against LSU where he was absolutely dominated by Ja’Marr Chase. Still, this is a team that needs help at corner and Terrell has all of the tools to be a very good one in the NFL.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Henry Ruggs III (WR/Alabama)
If the Eagles do not draft a wide receiver in the first round, their entire front office should be fired on the spot. Philadelphia invested heavily in Carson Wentz and are giving him the ghosts of Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson to throw to. Ruggs is not an outside receiver. He’s generously listed at 5’11”. He is, though, this year’s Hollywood Brown. He is electric in the open field and has great hands. He has all the makings of a YAC machine at the next level, if he can survive against man coverage in the slot, given his 188 LB frame.

22. Minnesota Vikings (from Buffalo): Trevon Diggs (CB/Alabama)
Given the earlier run on corners, Minnesota would be wise to use this first pick to grab the only remaining first round talent at the position. The Vikings struggled in the secondary last year and lost Xavier Rhodes and Trae Wayans in free agency. And honestly, isn’t the symmetry of them getting this pick for Stefon Diggs and then drafting his brother too good? I think so. Of note, I think this is going to be the hottest trade target of the first round, especially if Justin Herbert and Jordan Love are still available ahead of New England’s selection. I could see a team like Pittsburgh moving in to the first round to draft the heir apparent to Ben Roethlisberger before Bill Belichick can have his choice.

23. New England Patriots: Xavier McKinney (S/Alabama)
…and yet, I cannot see Belichick drafting Justin Herbert or Jordan Love in the first round. This is his chance to show that all of that Patriots’ success was his and not Tom Brady’s. And sitting right there for him is McKinney, a versatile safety who tackles well and can get to the QB on the blitz. He would be an immense upgrade over the aging Patrick Chung at SS and Belichick is known to have a fondness for Nick Saban-coached defensive players.

24. New Orleans Saints: Kenneth Murray (LB/Oklahoma)
The Saints are the total package. There are very few holes at the top of their depth chart. Cornerback would be an area to improve but given what’s available here, why reach when you can build defensive depth with a tackling stud like Murray, who racked up over 100 tackles for Oklahoma in 2019? Murray is a great athlete who can move from sideline to sideline. There’s some Luke Keuchly in him. He would be an anchor at ILB for the Saints.

25. Minnesota Vikings: Denzel Mims (WR/Baylor)
Mims is blessed with every attribute you’d want in a prototypical receiver. He’s big. He’s strong. He’s fast. His combine performance was excellent, as was his Senior Bowl week. He is not a very good route runner, however, but we’re at a point with receivers where, if you’re a team like Minnesota (with two first round picks) you’ve got to give a nod to upside, which is where Mims outshines the three or four other receivers who could end this first round.

26. Miami Dolphins (from Houston): Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR/Colorado)
Miami has secured their QB position and DT position for years to come in the first round, after doing a great job in free agency. Now they need the WR for Tua to throw to. Miami already has size with DeVante Parker and Preston Williams at wideout. Shenault gives them a pass-catcher who can line up at any receiver position and win balls in traffic. I’m biased because these are my picks, but I think in this scenario, Miami is set up for years of success under Brian Flores.

27. Seattle Seahawks: K’Lavon Chaisson (EDGE/LSU)
A huge value grab at a position of need for the Seahawks, who struggled to get to the opposing QB last year. Chaisson’s knocks include an ACL tear that cost him the 2018 season and only 6.5 sacks in 2019. The attributes are all there, but he’s a bit on the raw side. That said, Seattle has two second round picks and can more than afford to draft a high upside player at a position of need.

28. Baltimore Ravens: A.J. Epenesa (EDGE/Iowa)
The Ravens’ biggest area of need is interior offensive lineman. This is not the kind of draft with a generational guard talent anywhere in sight of the first round, so we move over to the defensive side of the ball, where the Ravens struggled to stop the run, most famously against the Tennessee Derrick Henrys in the AFC Divisional Round. They’ve already brought in Calais Campbell to lock down one side of their base 3-4. Epenesa, who is solid in the run and flexible enough to play in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, should help improve this particular area of weakness. His stock has dropped after a poor showing at the Combine, but the tools are all there for the powerful 6’5” rusher.

29. Tennessee Titans: Yetur Gross-Matos (EDGE/Penn State)
The Titans made the most inexplicably stupid offseason move by signing Ryan Tannehill to a lucrative contract. Their offense is predicated on giving the ball to Derrick Henry 30 times a game and having a QB who won’t turn the ball over. So they spent $118 million to lock up a guy nobody wanted a year ago, whose playoff numbers were clears throat 36-60, 369 yards in 3 games. Anyway, good luck to them. Gross-Matos is basically A.J. Epenesa and nobody can convince me that they’re not the same person.

30. Green Bay Packers: Tee Higgins (WR/Clemson)
The Packers are a long way from their Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley days and Aaron Rodgers isn’t getting any younger (or better). Tee Higgins gives Rodgers the kind of monster outside receiver he’s never really had in Green Bay. Higgins is not a burner by any stretch, but he would become Rodgers’ top red zone target on Day 1.

31. Santa Clara 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk (WR/Arizona State)
The 49ers stay on the offensive side of the ball and look for a replacement for Emmanuel Sanders. Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel would pose an enormous speed threat to every opposing defense, with Aiyuk probably being the more traditional wideout, albeit one who could also star as a punt returner for the Niners. Combine the speed of Aiyuk and Samuel with the YAC of George Kittle and the 49ers suddenly have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFC.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Queen (ILB/LSU)
To say that the Chiefs don’t have a lot of needs would be an understatement, which is why I have them taking the top rated defensive player left. Queen will be an undersized middle linebacker in the NFL, but is a really smart player with lightning quick response times, especially defending the screen game.

Okay, so, where are the Quarterbacks?

Look, I’m not high on Justin Herbert or Jordan Love. I don’t think either are worth a first round pick. Herbert has the size. And he is, by all accounts, very smart. There were games this season where I watched the best QB in the country and other times where I saw an absolute draft bust. Look at it this way: Coming into the season, he was rated as the second best QB prospect in the draft. During the season, his stock tumbled. Once the season ended, everyone fell in love with him again, because he’s 6’6” and isn’t coming off of a hip injury. That he’s spoken about in the same breath as Tua is baffling to me. He’s nowhere near the passer that Tua is. The accuracy is just not there on a consistent basis. The arm strength is there and he can scramble, but his medium game is not first-round level. I think he can be an NFL QB because that bar is not terribly high. But this is a four-year starter at the Division I level. We’ve seen his development and it kind of just stalled out. I think he’s a smart second round pick or, as I mentioned earlier, a good pick late in the first for a team that will need to replace a veteran (a la Pittsburgh, where I think he will end up) soon.

Jordan Love, well, I just don’t get it at all. Again, great arm. Even more athletic than Herbert. Great size. He also threw 17 interceptions in the Mountain West in 2019 and completed just 62% of his passes. Herbert completed 68% and accuracy is the primary concern with him. I’ve seen the incomprehensibly lazy Patrick Mahomes comp for Jordan Love and I’m embarrassed for both Love and Mahomes. Do I think Jordan Love can play in the NFL? Certainly. Do I think I’d feel comfortable using a first round pick (especially in a draft that I think is very deep on talent) on him? Absolutely not.

There are a few teams (outside of Cincinnati and Miami who I think will definitely take Burrow and Tua) that still need a starting QB. The Chargers can get by for a season with Tyrod Taylor. The Redskins have to give Dwayne Haskins Jr. another year, at least. The Raiders aren’t going to move into Las Vegas with a rookie QB at the helm. That leaves Denver and New England. I don’t really believe that the Broncos believe that Drew Lock is their QB of the future. But I also don’t believe that Herbert or Love is better right now than Lock. Which leaves us with the Patriots. Do I think they would be insane to enter the 2020 season with Jarrett Stidham as their starting QB? Absolutely, unless the goal is to have him embarrass himself, finish 3-13, secure the first pick, and draft Trevor Lawrence. But if we learned anything from the Dolphins’ “Tank for Tua” plan (which inexplicably might still work), it’s that things change. No NFL team should be tanking for any one QB. Trevor Lawrence is one unfortunate injury away from leaving Justin Fields as 2021’s top prospect. Ultimately, I think New England brings Jameis Winston aboard for a one year experiment, sees what they’ve got in Stidham in those games where Winston throws 4 INTs and gets benched, and evaluates the QB position next offseason after Bill Belichick retires.

That’s my long way of saying, I don’t think Herbert or Love should be drafted in the first round. (But ultimately, I think both do).

The one QB who I would target later on in the draft is Washington State’s Anthony Gordon, who put up (unsurprisingly) great numbers in Mike Leach’s lunatic offense. He’s the kind of safe-bet QB that a team like Tennessee should have targeted instead of burning cap money on Tannehill. Gordon can make every short and intermediate throw with precision accuracy. He would be an excellent 3rd or 4th round pick who I truly think could start on Day 1 in the NFL in an offense that isn’t predicated on deep throws.

And if I really wanted to torture you, this would be a long section about how much I love Ashtyn Davis, a safety out of Cal-Berkeley, who will likely be a second round pick. But this is a good enough place to end.