I can’t believe I’m doing this. Two years ago I wrote this post about Brett Favre retiring. I didn’t want to do it, but as a professional (unemployed) blogger, I felt it my duty to sum up Brett Favre’s career as he faded away into retirement.

Fast forward two years and that post is one of the more humorous things I’ve ever written. I wanted to talk fairly about the career of a football player that I never rooted for and never liked. And I did. When I just re-read that post, I felt like I had been duped by Favre into saying nice things about him. Really, I felt like Packers, Jets, and Vikings fans do about him. Buying in to rooting for Favre means that you’re eventually setting yourself up for disappointment.

This year, the Minnesota Vikings had the opportunity to take the quarterback of their future, but they were likely sure Favre was coming back and didn’t want to upset him, so they passed on taking Jimmy Clausen or Colt McCoy (instead they drafted Joe Webb, you know, from Alabama-Birmingham?).

Last week, ESPN reported that Brett Favre was retiring. Brett Favre’s camp says that that report isn’t necessarily true. America says, “Just retire.” Sports fans have grown tired of this Favre ritual. And frankly, of Favre. All of the goodwill that Brett Favre had built up over the years is gone now. He no longer gets the benefit of the doubt from the public and from most sportswriters. And he likely doesn’t care. But what if he did???

With that, I’m going to offer Brett Favre my services and prepare his retirement speech. His speech could make or break his reputation. I’m a strong believer in the power of words. And I think that I can win Brett Favre back some fans. You know, whenever he finally decides to hang up his pads.

(shutters clicking, Favre walks out onto the podium and takes his seat)

And now everyone loves him again, right? Well, as long as he stays retired…

Like I said, “whenever I get around to it.” Let’s just jump into the National League (the more interesting league), shall we?

NL EAST
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Strasburgs

Breakdown: There was a time (two days ago) where I would have argued to you that the Atlanta Braves were a World Series contender, until I watched them intently last night and I saw a team with many holes. Lets look at the rotation first: Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, and Kris Medlen. The pitching version of Murderer’s Row that is not. With Hudson you know what you’re getting. 7 innings, 2 Runs, 1 Walk, 2 Strikeouts. Or something like that. But let’s look at what the rest of the rotation has done. If I told you that Kris Medlen had the best winning % and lowest ERA, wouldn’t you be a little concerned? And if I told you that only Jurrjens was allowing fewer than 9 hits per 9 IP, would you be a little concerned? And if I told you that only Medlen and Hanson had ERA+s over 93, would you be a little concerned? Say Atlanta makes the playoffs, who from that rotation do you want starting Game 2. Kris Medlen? Good luck.

Philly on the other hand throws two aces at you (Halladay and Oswalt). And, you’d likely be surprised to learn that Cole Hamels has not been all that bad this year, himself. Yes, he’s 7-7. But his K/9 ratio is higher than Halladay’s. And his H/9 is just a smidge more than Doc’s. And his ERA+ is a very nice (for a number 2 starter) 119. After Hamels, you’re left with Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick, or what I lovingly call, “spare parts.” However, give me the team with two and potentially three aces in their rotation and we’ll worry about the spare parts later.

Atlanta’s pitching is not their only hole either. I’ve watched them play a handful of times this year and am not impressed with their overall approach. I saw them almost get no-hit by Scott Olsen earlier this year because they were about as patient as a 28 year old virgin (it’s fine, no one reads this). They’re getting a career year from Martin Prado, getting some RBI from an aging corner infielder, and relying heavily on a 20 year old rookie. Meanwhile Chipper Jones is batting at about the Kung Fu Panda line (mid-.250s), all the while playing atrocious defense. How many home runs do they have from all of their 5 outfielders? That would be 29 total homers. I don’t see it.

Philadelphia has “struggled” as a team at the plate this year (I say “struggled” because they’re 8th in Major League Baseball in terms of runs scored. Atlanta is 12th.), but position by position (except for catcher and rightfield) the Phillies trot out experienced hitters who are simply better (and more proven) than their Atlanta counterparts. I fully expect Philly to win the East and for Atlanta to hit a wall sometime in mid-August.

As a quick note, if you think the New York Mets, one of the worst road teams in baseball are going to vault Atlanta and Philadelphia, you’re a crazy person.

NL CENTRAL
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Breakdown: This is a two team race and should be an exciting one. The Cincinnati Reds are a very interesting team. Interesting, however, is not a synonym for “good.” Yes, they have Joey Votto and (to a lesser extent) Brandon Phillips, but they also rely heavily on a rookie centerfielder (Drew Stubbs), a rightfielder who shows no signs of being a disciplined hitter (Jay Bruce), and an atrocious leadoff hitter (Orlando Cabrera). However, for me, all you need to know is that Johnny Gomes starts for them. And while Johnny Gomes is having a career year, I’m not exactly sure that a career year from someone like Johnny Gomes is such a great thing to tout.

Of course, Cincinnati’s “interesting” lineup has produced, something that can’t be said about the St. Louis Cardinals. Albert Pujols is having an off year and frankly, doesn’t look “right.” In fact, he looks hurt. And Matt Holliday hasn’t exactly been a world beater. The Cardinals have had such a spotty offensive year that only 5 players on their roster currently qualify for the batting title (7 Reds do). That said, I’m a pitching guy. And St. Louis has it.

If Philadelphia has the best 1-2-3 (with Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels) in the NL, St. Louis is a close 2nd. Jamie Garcia might not be a household name and might not have overpowering stuff, but he does have the numbers (9-4, 2.33 ERA, 7.29 K/9). And at the top of the rotation, well, it’s hard to argue against Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Unless, of course, you don’t like great pitchers.

Cincinnati counters with, um, Bronson Arroyo? Mike Leake? Travis Wood? Edinson Volquez? Johnny Cueto? Mix-and-match and you’ll not come close to St. Louis’ 1-2-3.

I have more confidence in Cincinnati to win this division than I do Atlanta to win theirs for what it’s worth, if anything. There’s enough of that weird unexplainable stuff (aura, I guess it’s called) with the Reds. They’ve played above their heads for a while, but I think ultimately, their inexperience will catch up to them. But I won’t be shocked if they come out on top.

NL WEST
1. San Francisco Giants
2. San Diego Padres (wild card)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Breakdown: If I had written this post at the All-Star break, I would have had Colorado winning this division. (Coincidentally, if you’d like to buy a $10 ticket for the Rockies to win the World Series at 20-1 odds, it’s yours). Since the All-Star break however, the Rockies have been the worst team in baseball (along with the Orioles, but you know, that’s to be expected). What looked like the best race in baseball, with four teams vying for a division title, today is a three team race.

Most people, myself included thought the Padres were going to be miserable this season. This is what I wrote in my season preview: “San Diego is an absolute mess. Where should I start? Jon Garland is their “ace.” David Eckstein is their everyday second baseman. There is so much youth on this team and none of it is worth getting really excited about. I really feel bad for Adrian Gonzalez because he deserves better than whatever this team is doing. I hope, for his sake, that he’s playing first base in San Francisco or Boston or Atlanta by season’s end.”

As it turns out, Mat Latos is their ace and in the year of the pitcher, maybe it doesn’t matter if David Eckstein is your everyday second baseman. Latos, Garland, and Clayton Richard have been way better than anyone expected. At the back end of the rotation, Wade LeBlanc and Kevin Correia might not be names that’ll have you excited, but they’ve had moments of effectiveness this season. And the Padres have an elite bullpen. The names are not sexy. At all. But the Padres have been this good all season. And aren’t showing any sign of quitting. I can’t believe I’m writing this, but I really do think they’re going to take the NL Wild Card.

In the division race though, I give the edge to the Giants because of their pitching certainly, but also because of the arrival of some offense in the form of Buster Posey and Andres Torres. The Giants are currently the hottest team in baseball for a reason: they’re balanced. With their offensive improvements, I’m not sure that there’s a legitimate issue with the Giants. Great rotation (best 1-5 in the NL, bar none). Solid lineup, not great, but increasingly effective. Great closer in Brian Wilson. Effective bullpen. Manager who’s been there before and knows what he’s doing. The Dodgers don’t have the rotation or bullpen (beyond Broxton and Kuo) that San Francisco does. And really, I don’t know that the Dodgers lineup is that much better at this point.

So Who’s Winning It All?
Not the Pittsburgh Pirates.

American League Playoffs:
WILD CARD ROUND
Texas vs. Tampa Bay- This is the most intriguing matchup imaginable. TV ratings won’t exactly be great, but the intrigue will be. The AL’s best rotation faces the AL’s best offense. Cliff Lee vs. David Price (twice, because this will go 5 games). Can one of Texas’ “other” pitchers step up and match Matt Garza and Jeff Niemann? I’m giddy at the possibility of this series. It’ll be very close. But I’ll take Tampa Bay (3-2)

New York vs. Minnesota- This is the opposite of intriguing. New York (3-1)

LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP
New York vs. Tampa Bay- They’re close. Very close. (New York 4-3)

National League Playoffs:
WILD CARD ROUND
San Francisco vs. St. Louis- This will be a dream matchup for lovers of pitching. Lincecum vs. Wainwright. Cain vs. Carpenter. Garcia vs. Zito/Bumgarner/Sanchez (I prefer Bumgarner, but that likely won’t happen). If Pujols was healthy, I think the short series would favor the Cardinals, but I don’t think he is. San Francisco has enough offense to win a very tight series. San Francisco (3-2)

Philadelphia vs. San Diego- The road will stop here for the Padres. Too much pitching. Too much offense. This would be a nightmare draw for them. (Philadelphia 3-0)

LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP
San Francisco vs. Philadelphia- I could go with my heart here or my head. My heart tells me to take Willie Mays’ team. Take Barry Bonds’ team. Take youth. Take Posey. Take Torres. Take Bumgarner, Sanchez, Lincecum, Cain, and Sandoval. Take the gorgeous uniforms. Take the breathtaking ballpark. Take Kuiper and Krukow. My head tells me to take the two-time pennant winners, with the dueling aces and all that power. I like my heart more than my head. (San Francisco 4-3)

WORLD SERIES
San Francisco vs. New York- What a classic matchup, eh? Savor it while you can. It won’t last long. My heart loses. (New York 4-1)

I did mention that I would talk about where available players would best fit, but I realize that that’s kind of a foolish undertaking. The best players belong on the teams who need them. The elite teams (New York, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia) don’t need to add players like Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, Zack Greinke, etc. Adding them would just make them better. Detroit, Chicago (AL), Cincinnati, St. Louis, Atlanta, San Francisco, San Diego, etc could use those players in some form or variety. All the wasted space on trade speculation is really just that. Let’s just sit back and enjoy the next three months, shall we? We shall.

I love late July in Major League Baseball. Player movement, teams deciding their short and long-term futures, surprise teams still in the hunt, etc. etc. As I type this, there are 13 teams who are 8 games or fewer behind their division’s leader. That’s 19 teams with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. And so for teams like the Boston Red Sox, who are 8 games behind the New York Yankees, the question is, “Do we have a shot?” And if so, “Do we push all of our chips into the center of the table and go for it?” And if we go for it, “Who are we willing to give up to get what we need?” And then what happens if you don’t get there? You could end up like the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, who in 2002 thought they had a shot at the playoffs in late July, and acquired Bartolo Colon, a proven ace and a workhorse, for the stretch run. The Expos missed the playoffs that year by 12.5 games. And to get Bartolo Colon? Well, the Exponationals gave up a few prospects named Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee. And today, the Nationals are not one of the 19 teams with a shot at the playoffs. And they haven’t been a team with a shot at the playoffs since then. Instead, they’re the ones who are looking to target the teams who ask themselves the question, “Do we have a shot?” And Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM will be trying to convince everyone from the Chicago White Sox to the Chicago Cubs that, yes, they have a chance. This is why I love late July. Lots of thinking. Lots of overthinking. And everyone’s baseball future hangs in the balance. For years to come.

You would think that that was it for this post, but I’m not going absent for one month and returning with just one paragraph of narrative. It’s prediction time. Doing this before the trade deadline might seem counterproductive to the idea of being correct. I have no idea where Roy Oswalt, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Edwin Jackson, Ty Wigginton, Brett Myers, Lance Berkman, etc. are going in the next 5 days. But I don’t want to be the guy or gal who hops on a team’s bandwagon after a big trade (ahem…LA Angels). So I’ll try and be a step ahead of the curve.

I’ll list the divisions in terms of how I think they’ll finish up. And then some breakdown:

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays (Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Breakdown: This looks a lot like the standings today, because it is. The Yankees and Rays are the class of this group, but to me, the Yankees are a hair better than Tampa. The Rays pitching has been very good (with the exception of James Shields who would not be one of their 3 playoff starters). David Price has been Cy Young quality. Wade Davis has been a pleasant surprise. And Jeff Niemann and Matt Garza have been as good as advertised. I’m not quite sure I understand why they would trade the farm for Zack Greinke. Pitching is not their issue. Their inability to get on base consistently is their problem. Of the Rays players with at least 300 ABs this year (there are 6), half of them are getting on-base below a 33% clip. In addition, 3 of those guys have sub-.400 SLG. %. The Yankees also have 6 players with at least 300 ABs. All of them have an .OBP of .330 or higher (Derek Jeter has the lowest at .340.) Jeter is also the only one of the six with a Slugging % below .400. Jeter’s is .396. You see my point. They guys who are playing most for the Yankees are performing better offensively than the Rays. By a lot. As for the Red Sox, because they deserve mention, I would be shocked if they make the playoffs. In fact, I don’t think they should acquire anyone of consequence at the trade deadline. The Sox’s system is stacked. They don’t need to unstack for what is ultimately a futile cause. Too many injuries this year. They’ll be back in 2011.

AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

Breakdown: The Whtie Sox surge is just that I think. The Twins were my pick at the start of the year and will remain as such because I really think they’re the most balanced team. Justin Morneau was arguably the AL MVP when he went down with a concussion in early July. They’ve more than stayed afloat in his absence. They’re a game back today. When he returns, he bolsters a lineup that can just do more than Chicago’s (all power) and Detroit’s (all Miggy). The Tigers have been hit hard by injury recently and frankly, I don’t know that they have enough in their rotation to get them to the playoffs, especially with Verlander having a slightly off year. Minnesota has pitching. Scott Baker has been wildly inconsistent this year and is certainly the wild card for the Twins. If he can right his own ship, Minnesota wins this division fairly easily.

AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. LA Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

Breakdown: LA can steal Dan Haren from Arizona all they want. They cannot compete with Texas. The Rangers success hinges entirely on their pitching. You might not like the names “Tommy Hunter,” “Scott Feldman,” “CJ Wilson,” and “Colby Lewis,” but you cannot argue that they’ve all performed quite well this year. And their rotation is anchored by the best pitcher in baseball. Bar none. Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in baseball. Keep saying it. Let the stigma of “Cliff Lee” wash over you. Remind yourself about his early career struggles. Do you feel good? Now look at what Cliff Lee has done since the start of the 2008 season. In 3 full seasons, he’s walked only 80 batters, with an ERA around 2.75. Heck, look at the sabremetric stats that I don’t even understand. Even those are good. His ERA+ is 162 this season. That’s a big number. Okay, Cliff Lee tangent aside, even if the Rangers pitching takes a slight step back, is there a better lineup in baseball? Chris Davis is their number 9 hitter! And they have a dominant closer and very solid bullpen. If the Texas Rangers don’t scare you, you’re missing the mark.

This year, I’ve written two reflective sports pieces: One was a glowing, but melancholic look at the US Men’s Winter Olympic Hockey team and their march to the Gold Medal game before ultimately falling to the Canadians. The other reflective piece was an angry, biting review of the Washington Capitals 2009-10 season, following their first round playoff loss to the 8th seed Montreal Jaroslav Halaks. What follows, will be a combination of the two, because while there’s anger and letdown, there’s also a good deal of hopefulness.

I always like to start with the bad side of things. When I was a child and I bought a new video game or CD, I would always make sure that I did my homework, cleaned my room, etc. before I unwrapped that piece of entertainment. The idea was and continues to be that once that hard stuff is out of the way, you can truly enjoy something.

When it comes down to the 2010 World Cup and the US National Team, the “bad side of things” begins with Coach Bob Bradley. Ultimately in my book, Bradley is to blame for the National Team not advancing out of the Round of 16 following today’s extra time loss to Ghana. His inability to see what the rest of us saw on the pitch is what ultimately brought our demise. In our first match against the English, midfielder Ricardo Clark looked hopeless. And so he disappeared for the next two matches. Today, he reappeared, started, single-handedly allowed Tim Howard to get exposed leading to the first Ghanaian goal, and picked up a yellow card for good measure. He was replaced 30 minutes into the first half by Maurice Edu, who had played admirably in his absence against Slovenia and Algeria. Coach Bradley didn’t stop with Clark, though. Robbie Findlay found his way back up top today, alongside the corpse known colloquially as “Jozy Altidore (more later on him!!!)” in the starting lineup. Sure, Edson Buddle had provided a spark and changed the attack against Algeria. And sure, Robbie Findlay looked hopeless against England and Slovenia (he was suspended for the Algeria match). But Coach Bradley doesn’t much care for your “visual evidence.” For whatever reason, Edson Buddle spent far too much time on the U.S. bench. Whether or not he looked bad in training or perhaps had difficulties with Coach Bradley (and I’m just speculating on this) does not matter. Buddle came into the World Cup playing the best soccer of his career for the LA Galaxy (who I believe play in something called the “MLS”) and spent most of his time in South Africa watching the games like me.

Coach Bradley’s ineptitude with our starting lineups was what did us in. When you have to use two substitutions (strategic and not injury-driven) before the first touch of the second half, you’ve failed as a coach and strategist. And as far as I’m concerned, Bradley failed during this World Cup. He failed to put the best lineup on the pitch and he failed in preparing his players to play 90 minutes of competitive soccer. I don’t want to belabor the point that most in the real media will, but you can’t give up goals in the first 10 minutes of 3 out of 4 of your World Cup matches and hope to get very far. We came out flat in all 4 games. It finally caught up to us today.

As for the corpse known as Jozy Altidore, I’m perhaps being a little cruel, but it’s been a long time in my life since I’ve been so angry with a player I was rooting for. I like Jozy. He seems like a really nice kid, with a good head on his shoulders. He even came to Amanda’s school this year and by her accounts, was great with the students. However, Jozy Altidore is not ready for primetime lights. He proved it with a dreadful Hull City club in the EPL and he drove a nail into it during the 2010 World Cup. Jozy Altidore sucked today. That’s the best analysis I can give you (okay, maybe not). During the first half, Jozy spent a good deal of time making senseless butterfly challenges (a term I use (usually in my head) when a player is challenging defensively by just chasing after the ball, but never getting it). If you re-watch the Ghana match (and really, who wouldn’t want to?) you’ll see Jozy Altidore running aimlessly, burning himself out, and ultimately never making a difference defensively. And what is truly great about that is that while he was busy burning energy defensively, he was uncreative, disconnected, and seemingly disinterested offensively for nearly the entire match. Really, we spent most of the first half playing a theoretical man down. Because while Jozy was out there, he was playing on a different pitch, in a different country, on a different day today. Jozy was nowhere to be found when we needed him.

Is it right to heap this kind of criticism on a 20 year old playing in his first World Cup? Yes. Yes, it is. Why? Because he’s out there. If you’re going to be out there, you need to actually BE OUT THERE. Why are we supposed to give Jozy Altidore the benefit of the doubt? What in the name of Eric Wynalda was Jozy Altidore ever done for US soccer? Jozy is like a top prospect in baseball who gets called up and mid-way through his first season is hitting .246 with 4 HR and 85 strikeouts. Do you send that prospect down to AA for more seasoning or do you keep him in your lineup and hope he turns it around? Coach Bradley kept Jozy in the lineup, batted him third and watched him go 0-4 at the plate. Perhaps before we fall in love with potential (And don’t get me wrong, Jozy has more than anyone else on this roster) we should check out that attractive characteristic called success first. (And if you use the “he was very good in qualifying” card, that’s your choice. I choose not to play that card. Because the Jozy Altidore I’ve seen recently wouldn’t win the NAIA’s Golden Boot award.)

For all the bad stuff and for as empty as my gut felt after the Ghana loss, more good was done in this World Cup than we realize right now. That will come with time. US Soccer has come a long way since the 2006 World Cup. There is a solid foundation in place. Altidore will be there in 4 years and hopefully be the striker that we needed this time around. Herculez Gomez will have four more years of experience. Benny Fielhaber will hopefully be a starter by then. Charlie Davies will hopefully be fully recovered from his auto accident and be back to the form he was in prior to the wreck that nearly killed him. And there’s always Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey. They’ll both be in the their early 30s by 2014 in Brazil, but you have to imagine that they’ll both be back as the leaders of that team. Neither showed any signs of age this time around. 2014 could very well be the year that US soccer truly gets on the map with the Brazils, Germanys, Argentinas, and Italys of the world.

2010, however, was not. There were moments of true genius though that, while they seem a little soured because of today’s loss, will likely stand the test of time. Landon Donovan’s goal against the Algerians was such a brilliant moment of American sport. The emotion that goal caused will resonate with me for some time. Our blitzkrieg attack to start the second half today will also stick with me. There were moments in this tournament when our team looked like perhaps we were the best team in the world. The next step is to turn those moments into 90 minute blocks. That will be the hard part. For now, though lets try not to focus so much on the bad parts. Our nucleus is in place. Our journey is mapped out for us. Our future is bright. Bring on 2014.

2010 NBA Draft

As we’ve nearly reached the halfway point of the year 2010, I thought it an appropriate time to assess the state of the “Album of the Year” race as far as I am concerned. This will be my first, and probably last, foray into writing about music in this space. Music is not one of those things I’ve ever felt comfortable writing about, but I thought it worth giving it a try.

Gold Motel “Summer House”- (see below)

Gold Motel “Gold Motel (EP)”- Here we have the leader of the pack so far. Yes, an EP. The LP, “Summer House” brings five more tracks to the fold, but none of them (except for “We’re on the Run”) can approach the five songs previously found on this EP. I think the thing that strikes me about the EP most is just how beautifully it flows together. The songs themselves evoke a certain 1960’s California pop feel, but they lack the triteness that I often feel that genre possesses. These songs might sound sunny, but lyrically Greta Morgan sings of vulnerability and insecurity and love. This EP and their terrific live show brought about the 2010 musical Renaissance for me. There was and still is something very special to me about their sound and abbreviated or not, this EP has impacted my year more than any other album. And so it finds itself here, for now.

Tomorrow, We Are Scientists and The Gaslight Anthem release new albums. And also, we’re a month and a half away from a previous Album of the Year winner, The Arcade Fire, releasing their much anticipated third album, “The Suburbs.” Or perhaps there’s another Gold Motel sitting out there. That’s the great thing about music. You never know when something is going to come along and completely change your perspective.

Groups (In Predicted Order of Finish)

Group A
Uruguay
France
Mexico
South Africa

Group B
Argentina
Nigeria
Greece
South Korea

Group C
England
Slovenia
USA
Algeria

Group D
Germany
Ghana
Australia
Serbia

Group E
Netherlands
Cameroon
Japan
Denmark

Group F
Paraguay
Italy
Slovakia
New Zealand

Group G
Brazil
Portugal
Cote d’ Ivoire
North Korea

Group H
Spain
Chile
Honduras
Switzerland

Knockout Stage
Round 1 (Winners in Parenthesis)

England vs Ghana (England)
Uruguay vs. Nigeria (Nigeria)

Brazil vs. Chile (Brazil)
Netherlands vs. Italy (Netherlands)

Argentina vs. France (Argentina)
Germany vs. Slovenia (Germany)

Spain vs. Portugal (Portugal)
Paraguay vs. Cameroon (Cameroon)

Round 2

England vs. Nigeria (Nigeria)
Brazil vs. Netherlands (Netherlands)

Argentina vs. Germany (Argentina)
Portugal vs. Cameroon (Portugal)

Semi-Finals

Nigeria vs. Netherlands (Netherlands)
Argentina vs. Portugal (Argentina)

3rd Place Game

Nigeria vs. Portugal (Portugal)

Finals

Netherlands vs. Argentina (Argentina)

This would be a dream final in terms of exciting soccer. I’m not sure that it would sell soccer to Americans because I’m not sure that as many would watch here as did in 2006 when France and Italy played each other. I also don’t really think soccer will ever catch on as a prime sport in America and that’s fine.

I have Argentina winning it all because I don’t want to count out Diego Maradona like everyone else. The man has likely died 39 times, but he’s a fighter. He (well, Messi and Carlos Tevez) will prove the doubters wrong. Argentina struggled a bit during qualifying. I’m not scared. They are going to outscore everyone they play. Including the Dutch, who will, as they always do, capture the hearts of the American fans once the USA is eliminated in group play. And on that subject…

I’m not trying to be contrary. I would actually really like for the US to win their group. But with the expectations set so high because of such an easy draw, and because of the laid back nature of this team and Bob Bradley, I don’t see the fire. I have the Slovenians advancing because of their qualifying run and the motivation for a team that hasn’t been there before. I hope I’m wrong.

My last explanation involves the Nigerians, who I know nothing about except that they’re the most fundamentally sound of the African teams and they get an easy draw should my predictions hold true (facing Uruguay and England, who is highly overrated and could struggle with the Ghanians attack in the first round of the knockout round). Also, it would be nice for an African team to make the semis. And yes, I’m concerned with things being “nice.”

This should be a gamechanging World Cup. As I said, soccer will never be the sport du jour here. But I really see this World Cup brining soccer to a level where we could have a major network (NBC would be smart) airing weekly UEFA matchups, ESPN featuring more soccer talk in addition to their increased level of coverage of MLS, EPL, Primera, etc, and who knows, maybe even an improved MLS product. The excitement for this World Cup is like nothing I’ve seen in my life, though that is likely attributed to the fact that I live in a great city filled with cultural diversity and not Taunton, Massachusetts (PORTUGAL!). There should be some epic games. And with that, I leave you with my 5 can’t miss (England v. USA not included) first round matchups (all times reflect the Eastern Time Zone)

Argentina vs. Nigeria- June 12 10:00 AM
Netherlands vs. Cameroon- June 24 2:30 PM
Uruguay vs. France- June 11 2:30 PM
Germany vs. Ghana- June 23 2:30 PM
USA vs. Slovenia- June 18 10:00 AM

(Also, in Group G)
Brazil vs. Ivory Coast- June 20 2:30 PM
Portugal vs. Ivory Coast- June 15 10:00 AM
Brazil vs. Portugal- June 25 10:00 AM

Enjoy. Viva Futbol!

It’s a cliche to say, “Where do I start?” when writing a reflective piece. Especially when you’re reflecting on something that happened 3 hours earlier. To understand the scope of Stephen Strasburg’s debut tonight, you have to understand the apathy people in Washington have for the Nationals. Or at least “had,” before tonight.

Today has me thinking back to the 1994 NBA playoffs. I know, who isn’t right? See, in 1994, the 8th seeded Denver Nuggets, a team which started such future Hall of Famers as Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf and Bryant Stith, did the “impossible” and won a 5 game series against a number 1 seed, the (then) Seattle SuperSonics. As a ten year old, I had always thought that this was impossible. The SuperSonics had Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp. They had the word “super” in their name. When I was 10, I thought this was the biggest upset in the history of humankind.

What I realize now that I didn’t then is 1.) An 8 seed can match up well against a 1 seed (see Golden State toppling the Dallas Mavericks in 2007) and 2.) Sometimes, the team with the number 1 seed isn’t necessarily the best team. And that brings us back to today or more accurately, Wednesday night.

Wednesday, the Washington Capitals shocked 10 year old Jason, but just frustrated 25 year old Jason. After finishing the NHL’s regular season with the league’s best record, the Capitals entered the NHL playoffs with a series against a mediocre-at-best Montreal Canadiens team that they matched up fairly well against. After four games, the Caps were up 3-1. Then, they decided to play boring, uninspired, flat hockey for three games. You can’t do that in the NHL playoffs. There’s plenty of recent evidence to support this (See: San Jose Sharks). The Capitals just became the most recent piece of evidence, after losing Game 7 to the Canadiens 2-1.

Three years ago, the Capitals fired their coach “Guy No One Remembers” amid a terrible start to the season and promoted the coach of one of their minor league affiliates (the Hershey Bears) to the big time. The team caught fire after the promotion of Bruce Bourdreau and wound up winning their division. Of course, they were a little too young and lost to a better Philadelphia Flyers club in 7 games, losing Game 7 at home.

Last year, the Capitals finished with the second best record in the Eastern Conference and entered the playoffs matched up against an underachieving New York Rangers team that they should have defeated in 5 games. Instead, they were outplayed by the Rangers and barely won the series, again in 7 games. That set them up for a Conference Semi-Final matchup with their rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Caps squandered an early two game series lead and found themselves in another Game 7, only this time, they didn’t show up for the game (in fact, the 2008-09 Washington Capitals may still be lost on their way into the Verizon Center to play Game 7 against the Penguins) and got housed 6-2.

This season was going to be different. The Capitals absolutely obliterated the competition in the regular season, winning the President’s Trophy (best record) and finding themselves in an easy first round matchup with the Montreal Canadiens, who they would go on to lose to. In seven games. Again. Seven games. Here’s the problem:

People in this town lack the true, stupid passion that people in New York, Boston, and Philadelphia have for their teams. Something happens when you get below the Mason-Dixon line when it comes to sports. The further south you travel, the less and and less people care about their teams, reaching the utmost depths in Miami, where the locals couldn’t be bothered to support any of their 4 professional sports teams. Last night, as the Capitals left the ice after shaking hands with the Canadiens, the fans who stayed, stood on their feet and applauded. Could you imagine if the Philadelphia Flyers finished the regular season with the best record, and then choked away a first round matchup against a team they matched up favorably with? There would be no ovation. NO ONE WOULD CLAP! The same holds true for Boston and New York. When success is expected, you do not encourage failure. And this was monumental, epic failure. On a scale much larger than the Seattle SuperSonics in 1994. This was a collapse.

My opinion is that heads need to roll in Washington in the coming weeks. Bruce Boudreau, the Capitals coach who may have saved their season in 2007-08, needs to be fired in 2010. The NHL is a results orientated league. And under Boudreau, the results have not been good by any true measure of success. The Capitals have a roster littered with talent and an owner who is more than willing to spend money even in a league full of owners who, when the check comes at dinner, head to the lavatory. Let it be known that Bruce Boudreau has accomplished nothing of note in his time in Washington. The folks who have lived here their entire lives and know the history of the Washington Capitals will tell me that he might be the most successful coach in the team’s history. And you know what, he may very well be. But that does not, should not, and hopefully will not excuse the fact that his teams have fallen short, far too early, each of the last three years.

Of course, the players are responsible too. The Capitals have an interesting salary issue coming up. They are currently paying Mike Green, the most overrated “defenseman” in the NHL, $5.25 million until the end of the 2012 season. Their captain, Alex Ovechkin, makes $9.5 million until the end of his life, essentially. Alexander Semin will make $6 million next season and then become a restricted free agent. Combining the numbers of Ovechkin, Green, and Semin, you have almost $21 million, or more than 1/3 of the NHL salary cap. The Caps were $3 million over the cap this year. Owner Ted Leonsis cannot be forced to pay the luxury tax on a team that gets eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

The salary situation gets interesting with Nicklas Backstrom. Backstrom, who is without a doubt in my mind the most vital member of this team (yes, more than Ovechkin), is an RFA as of the end of the season. Backstrom made only $2.4 million this season and frankly, should be making close to Ovechkin money. But the Capitals cannot afford to give him Ovechkin money, or Semin money, or Green money, in my opinion (unless they want to field a one-line short handed team). To me, the odd man out has to be Semin first. He adds nothing to the Capitals that they don’t already have. Semin scored 40 goals this season. The Capitals led the league in goals scored, with 45 more than the second place team, the Vancouver Canucks. Semin is also a defensive liability and as tough a hockey player as OJ Simpson is an “understanding human being.” And he’s an RFA after next season. I would love to see him traded for a high (1st or 2nd round) draft pick or a blue-collar, hard nosed defenseman who is more focused on stopping goals than scoring them.

That’s where Mike Green comes in. Green was a +39 during the regular season, which is a great number for any defenseman. However, you have to take into account that he plays on the highest scoring team in the league. With two of the top 4 scorers (in terms of points) in the league. And Green scored 19 goals this season. That +39 doesn’t look as pretty now. And it doesn’t look as pretty when you watch him regularly. Last night, Green cost his team a goal on Montreal’s first when he took an unnecessary cross-checking penalty. On Montreal’s second goal, Green found himself overplaying one man on a 2-on-1. He fell out of the play and Montreal went ahead 2-0. This is the kind of thing that happens regularly in Washington. But the fans love Mike Green. Because he scores goals. Sure, he’s not tough, doesn’t fight, turns away from contact, constantly carries the puck in the offensive zone, gets caught out of position defensively, and exhibits zero on-ice leadership, and presumably, none in the locker room, because frankly, when was the last time you heard the words “Mike Green” and “leader” in the same sentence, but he scores goals and has a faux-hawk, so let’s give him the Jack Norris trophy? I would love to see Green moved this offseason as well.

Most will say that I’m being too reactionary. I’d prefer to call it proactivity, if that were an actual English word. Complacency has never made anyone better. The Washington Capitals have shown in the past 3 seasons, an ability to improve their regular seasons, and the disability of constant playoff failure. Some drunk moron on the train the other night, leaving a Nationals game, started yelling about how the “Caps own this league (the NHL).” I laughed at him and said, (paraphrase), “You can take your REGULAR season sweep of the Penguins, they’ll take their Stanley Cup.” I want the Capitals to succeed. Wednesday’s loss angered me incredibly. I love the team, but I don’t love this team, as a group of players. They might give trophies for great regular seasons and they might hang banners for division titles (even if that division is the weakest in professional sports), but those things don’t deserve a parade down Pennsylvania Avenue and up Seventh Street. This town needs a parade. The Capitals are the closest to bringing one here, but they’re still much too far away.

A lot has changed since my previous mock draft. Perhaps the most important thing is that time has progressed, as it tends to do. Nine weeks ago, I created a mock draft that will look little like the one you’re about to read, skim, or skip. My previous intention was to pick the best fit for each team. My intention with this mock draft is to be right about slotting. There will be trades on draft day. I’m not going to bother with that here. Without further ado, 2010 Mock Draft Version 2.0: (with very little analysis, because really if you don’t know about team needs and players in the first round of this years draft yourself, you likely never will and probably didn’t care much to begin with)

1. St. Louis Rams
Pick: Sam Bradford (QB/Oklahoma). I’ve made my feelings known previously that I prefer Clausen. I can see St. Louis trading out of this spot and drafting Clausen.

2. Detroit Lions
Pick: Ndamukong Suh (DT/Nebraska). This is a toss-up between Suh and McCoy. I like Suh better because watching the two in college, I was highly impressed with Suh’s domination of play and never found McCoy to be a game changer at that level.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Gerald McCoy (DT/Oklahoma)

4. Washington Redskins
Pick: Trent Williams (OT/Oklahoma). Okung is the better tackle. Williams is thought of as the better “fit.”

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Russell Okung (OT/Oklahoma State). Drafting Okung allows the Chiefs to move Brandon Albert to the right side of the line, where he is better suited and gives them an anchor for the next 12 seasons on the left side. Okung strikes me as a “sure thing,” in the mold of D’Brickashaw Ferguson.

6. Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Eric Berry (S/Tennessee). The surest pick in this draft is Berry. Instant success. A steal at 6.

7. Cleveland Browns
Pick: Jimmy Clausen (QB/Notre Dame). Mike Holmgren is an offensive minded coach. If Berry is gone, he has to go offensive in my mind. Clausen makes sense here, except for the memories of Brady Quinn. But in my mind, Clausen is the real deal and a different kind of QB than Quinn, mentally. I can see Clausen going at 4, 5 (yes, even with Matt Cassel in KC), 6, 7, 9, 13, or 14. I can’t see that many teams passing on a franchise quarterback. Not after what Aaron Rodgers has done in Green Bay after falling in his draft.

8. Oakland Raiders
Pick: Bruce Campbell (OT/Maryland). In every mock I see, it’s either Campbell or Jason Pierre-Paul. I prefer Campbell. If he doesn’t go here, he likely won’t go again in this mock. Oh, Oakland…

9. Buffalo Bills
Pick: Bryan Bulaga (OT/Iowa). I really can’t see Clausen falling any further than Buffalo. They’re a team with a giant, gaping hole at quarterback that has been there since Jim Kelly left. Bulaga, much like Jimmy Clausen, comes with a “warning” label because of the recent failure of fellow Iowa OT Robert Gallery. And I don’t know if Bulaga is athletic enough, frankly to play left tackle in the NFL.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: CJ Spiller (RB/Clemson). It makes NO SENSE to draft Spiller this high, but I’ve seen it in enough highly regarded places that I’ve convinced myself that it’ll happen. This team is going nowhere fast if they draft Spiller. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good back and will be a solid pro, but there are many more pressing needs in Jacksonville on the defensive side of the ball.

11. Denver Broncos
Pick:.Derrick Morgan (DE/Georgia Tech). Not Dez Bryant. Morgan would give Denver great depth at End.

12. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dan Williams (DT/Tennessee). Along with Tennessee teammate Berry, Williams is a steal here and well suited for Miami.

13. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Joe Haden (CB/Florida). Talk about filling a need. Haden gives the 49ers explosion in the return game (though they did just trade for Ted Ginn Jr. last week) and more importantly, the best possible counterpart for fellow CB Nate Clements.

14. Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Ryan Matthews (RB/Fresno State). A reach, but this is a team that needs a game changing running back. Not that I think Matthews is that.

15. New York Giants
Pick: Rolando McClain (ILB/Alabama). Steal if this happens. If he’s there, it happens. Unless Eric Berry falls this far….

16. Tennessee Titans
Pick: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE/South Florida). Athletic freak. Inflated numbers at USF playing on the D-Line with the constantly doubleteamed, 2 time All-American George Selvie. I think this smells of a bust.

17. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Anthony Davis (OT/Rutgers). Complement to Joe Staley.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Not a rapist….Kyle Wilson (CB/Boise State)

19. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Jared Odrick (DT/Penn State). Name me the last Penn State player to be a pro-bowl caliber defensive player. LaVarr Arrington? He made the Pro Bowl 7 years ago. Anyone else? Exactly.

20. Houston Texans
Pick: Earl Thomas (S/Texas). Thin in the defensive backfield. Thomas is raw, but full of potential.

21. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Jermaine Gresham (TE/Oklahoma). Is there a single pick that would make more sense?

22. New England Patriots
Pick: Tim Tebow (QB/Florida). If he goes in round 1, he goes here. And I, frankly, would rather be right about this than pick Brandon Graham like everyone else.

23. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Brandon Graham (OLB/Michigan)

24. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Sergio Kindle (OLB/Texas)

25. Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Jerry Hughes (OLB/TCU). All of these OLB selections are fine for each team. Let the record show that Hughes is my favorite of the bunch. Then Kindle. Then Graham. But I think Graham is a great fit with Green Bay’s young, talented defense.

26. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Dez Bryant (WR/Oklahoma State). A natural replacement for Anquan Boldin? Well, he does have character issues. So the “constant headache” component is there.

27. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Mike Iupati (OG/Idaho). Good run blocker. Needs to work on his pass blocking.

28. San Diego Chargers
Pick: Taylor Mays (S/USC). Adds swagger and a fear factor to a defense that has lost a lot of swagger and fear factor.

29. New York Jets
Pick: Devin McCourty (CB/Rutgers). Depth, depth, depth, and more depth.

30. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Maurkice Pouncey (C/Florida). Aging offensive line gets some youth.

31. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Rodger Saffold (OT/Indiana). I have no idea who this person is, but I’ve seen him as a late round option and he strikes me as a “Colts guy.”

32. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Sean Witherspoon (ILB/Missouri). If Witherspoon falls to 32, New Orleans should be very happy. Their defense is not quite “repeat worthy.” Yet.

This overall scenario makes Day 2 slightly less intriguing. St. Louis is hoping that Tebow is on the board once New Orleans selects at 32 because then they get to spend all day Friday taking trade offers. However, what if the Patriots don’t take Tebow? Do you think someone else (Jacksonville?) already has a deal cut with New Orleans to send next year’s first round pick and a second or third this year for the 32nd? Witherspoon is a great option for New Orleans, but I like having Jacksonville’s first next year and an extra second this year better. Needless to say, this is going to be an exciting first day. I have ebbed and flowed as to whether I like having the first round in primetime or not until very recently. I’m very excited by this.

For instant reactions to the first round, make sure to follow @midatlanticbias on twitter. I’ll be having a draft party with James (and Amanda?) and I’m sure we’ll have lots of opinions on what goes down on Thursday. See you then!