In Defense of Michael Bradley

June 23, 2014 / Jason / Leave a comment

Michael Bradley does not need to be defended by a slob on the Internet WITH OPINIONS any more than he deserves to be criticized by a slob on the Internet WITH OPINIONS. Michael Bradley has done enough in his career both for clubs and for country that the product should speak for itself.

That said, I hope Michael Bradley and the members of his family did not read any tweets after yesterday’s match. Twitter is a lot of things. One of them is a dumping ground for the misspelled thoughts of the blissfully unaware. And so once the final whistle sounded in Manaus, the masses took to their Twitter accounts to call for the benching of Michael Bradley, using the very clever hashtag #BenchBradley.

My guess is that most of these people calling for Bradley’s benching are neophytes. I’ve yet to talk with one person that follows the US Men’s National Team religiously who thinks that benching the team’s best field player is even a remotely decent idea.

Did Bradley play well against Ghana? No. He had probably his worst match under Jurgen Klinsmann. But Bradley didn’t play poorly yesterday against Portugal. There are, of course, the two obvious instances where the casual football observer would think that he was some kind of choking dog. But I’m not sure that casual observer is capable of noticing what a player like Bradley does over the course of 90 minutes.

Never in my life has the US had a box-to-box midfielder with Bradley’s skill and adeptness. By American standards, he’s a terrific passer and a player you want with the ball at his feet leading a break. He’s also a guy who defends the middle of the pitch very well. He is certainly not of the class of an Arturo Vidal, Yaya Toure, or Xavi, but Bradley is undoubtedly a world football player.

Soccer is not a sport where end of game statistics tell the entire story. Case in point: Spain out-possessed Holland 57/43 in their Group B match and still lost 5-1. For players like Bradley and Xavi, statistics aren’t the story. The world’s best goal scorers are often diminished talents without the supporting cast behind them (see: Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi’s international careers versus their club careers).

A prevalent (and wholly stupid) argument is that “Well, if Bradley was so good he should have scored on that “easy” shot and then the US would have won 3-2.” Soccer does not work that way. It’s often said that a 2-0 lead is the most dangerous type of lead in soccer. That is because teams will change their tactics on the fly to attack more. Portugal dominated possession in the first five minutes of yesterday’s match, leading to Nani’s goal. After that goal, the US attack built and the Portuguese seemed content to sit back, defend, and counter attack. When the US went up 2-1, Portugal stopped that tactic and started possessing the ball more, forcing the US into defend-for-your-lives mode.

It’s never as cut and dry as “tally up the shots on goal and viola! soccer!”At the risk of sounding like “That American Soccer Fan Guy,” it’s called the beautiful game for a number of reasons. One of those reasons is the amount of tactical thought and maneuvering that goes into a 90 minute match. This isn’t basketball. In the final minutes, Cristiano Ronaldo wasn’t holding the ball at his feet, waving off teammates to clear a path so he could go iso with Matt Besler. Like no other sport, soccer is a team game. All 10 field players need to be in tune with each other at all times. A central midfielder, like Michael Bradley, needs to know the exact moment that his right back is going to streak up the touchline. If not, you risk a.) a pass going out of play b.) a pass being intercepted c.) that right back ending up in an offside position d.) any other number of scenarios.

All of this leads to one central point: if you’ve watched the US Mens National Team closely since Jurgen took over, you know very well that Michael Bradley is the nucleus of the cell that is our team. With all due respect to his father, Michael was never this valuable when his dad was the at the helm of US Soccer. Jurgen has brought out the best in Bradley. To give that up now because of roughly 100 minutes of somewhat shaky football would be utterly foolish. This is not an aging, out of shape, whiny Landon Donovan, who wasn’t going to contribute much at all in this World Cup. This is a player in his prime who is maybe the primary reason why US Soccer is where it is today and a primary reason why US Soccer is headed in the direction it is tomorrow and every day after. Michael Bradley got us to this point. To turn our back on him now would seem to be quite contradictory to that other hashtag I’ve seen a lot of, #OneNationOneTeam.

MLB 25 And Under Dream Team

June 16, 2014 / Jason / Leave a comment

This is a sequel to a post from 2012. You can read that post here.

In the above referenced post from 2012, I attempted to build a roster of the best 25 and under players. Unlike some lists you’ll find on the Internet, I didn’t make it a list of the 25 best players aged 25 and under. I used relief pitchers and bench bats and tried to build a great team.

The 2012 list came at a time when a number of star players just barely made the qualifying mark of “25 by the time I publish this.” Gone from that list, because of age, are stars like Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, and Craig Kimbrel. And a quick glance will show that even some guys who are past the age cut-off wouldn’t make this team today even if they did qualify (Justin Upton, Jason Kipnis).

This is an exercise that I would like to revisit every 2 seasons. One rule that I’m changing is that to qualify, players need to be 25 years old not today, but on the last day of the regular season. As with the previous iteration, players with no Major League service time are eligible. And so without further writing that most of you probably skipped over, here is my team:

STARTING LINEUP

Catcher: Derek Norris (Oakland Athletics): The talent pool at this position is not very deep. The 2012 catcher, Buster Posey, has graduated to age 27 and with prospects like Travis d’Arnaud and Mike Zunino struggling to be useful to the Mets and Mariners respectively, Norris and his high-OBP finds himself here. Norris may not be a long-term catcher as he’s not known for his incredible defensive prowess, but any player with his ability to get on-base has value in a pool this shallow.

First Baseman: Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves): I overlooked Freddie Freeman on my 2012 team. I gave him mention but didn’t think that he could be a patient enough hitter to have true long-term value over someone like Eric Hosmer, who is excellent defensively. Hosmer, however, has been an abysmal hitter. Meanwhile, since I published my 2012 team, Freeman has become not only the best young first baseman in baseball, but maybe the best overall first baseman, short of Miguel Cabrera. Defensively, Freeman has been inconsistent, ending 2013 on the positive side of Defensive Runs Saved. This season has been a very different story defensively. But we’re not really building this all-star team solely on defense. Freeman’s bat can play almost anywhere in the lineup because of his versatility as a hitter. That’s immensely more valuable when building a team like this.

Second Baseman: Rougned Odor (Texas Rangers): The player who you wish had an “h” in his first name is also the youngest player in the Majors. Odor has played in a very limited fashion as a 20 year old for Texas, but has shown a mature approach at the plate and solid defensive prowess. He finds himself here for the same reason that he finds himself playing for the Rangers: Jurickson Profar’s ailing shoulder. With Profar likely out for the rest of the season, Odor might be just a placeholder here, but in his brief stint in the Majors (<100 PA) he has been a much better hitter than Profar was. And so as much as it pains me to leave Profar off this team, I have to give the nod to Odor.

Third Baseman: Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals): Injuries are always a concern for Rendon and so a long-term investment is a risk, but in his nearly full season (158 games at the time of writing this blurb) as a Major Leaguer, he sports a 107 OPS+ and plays a very good defensive third base. There are other names you could put here (see the bench section and the shortstop) but Rendon has produced and has shown improvement in his ability to drive the ball (his slugging pct. is 65 points higher in 2014 than it was in 2013).

Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox): Just an astounding player. At 21, Bogaerts is getting on-base at a 36% clip, has an OPS approaching .800, and isn’t striking out at a rate you’d expect from someone so young. His approach is so developed for a 21 year old that you forget his age. Defensively, he’s probably a third baseman long-term and he’s playing there now for Boston with the recent signing of Stephen Drew, but in the interim, Bogaerts can play shortstop in the Majors without much difficulty. It’s shocking to me that he doesn’t get more publicity considering the team he plays for.

Left Field: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): A homer pick? Probably. But let’s take a look at what the 21 year old Harper has done in his career to date:

.273/.353/.476, 125 OPS+, 43 HR, 126 RBI, 8.9 WAR (279 career games)

Harper is the victim, so to speak, of Mike Trout’s success. LeBron James recently called himself the most scrutinized player in sports, which very well may be true. Harper though may be Major League Baseball’s most scrutinized player (if not him, it’s my right fielder), even at times by his own inept manager. It all seems pretty unfair when you look at the production. Statistically speaking, at his age, Harper still compares favorably to Ken Griffey Jr. and Micky Mantle. So maybe we should cool off on the criticism just a bit.

Center Field: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels): Simply put, Trout is the best all-around player in baseball today and the best all-around player in baseball probably since early 1990’s Barry Bonds, aka the greatest player in the history of baseball. Trout will turn 23 this August and has shown some signs of being human this season, as his overall slash line is down across the board from his 2013 total. But there’s no question that he owns this spot until the moment he’s no longer age-eligible, or scientists create a more perfect baseball player (unlikely).

Right Field: Yasiel Puig (Los Angeles Dodgers): Rounding out an outfield of the most dynamic players in baseball who all also happen to be under the age of 25 is Yasiel Puig, arguably the most exciting player in the game. Puig is only 23 (and won’t turn 24 until December) and has only played 164 games in his Major League career (so, call it a full season). He sports a career OBP of .403, which is relatively unheard of for such a young hitter from Latin America, where patience at the plate is not necessarily treated as a virtue. Puig’s slugging percentage of .549 would have been topped by only 4 other Major Leaguers last season. His arm in right field is Vladimir Guerrero-esque. And for every base running blunder that gets shown on MLB Tonight and criticized by the Billy Ripkens and Harold Reynolds of the world, Puig evens those out by stretching the sort of hits most players give up on at first base into doubles. Puig is on a path to becoming the best import hitter in baseball history. And if you’re whining about Roberto Clemente right now, it took him 6 seasons to put up numbers even close to what Puig has done in one full season. Viva Puig.

Designated HItter: Giancarlo Stanton (Miami Marlins): As I stated in my 2012 piece, I don’t believe that pitchers should hit. I love the pace of National League baseball, but I don’t love pitchers hurting themselves running the bases or being automatic outs because for every Mike Leake, there are 30 Johnny Cuetos and Bartolo Colons. So we use a DH and in this case, the perfect DH, in Stanton. His glove is not a true detriment, but his body has proven to be not entirely made of steel. Giving him the ability to focus on the one thing he does better than anyone (murdering baseballs) is a true asset to this squad. Stanton certainly isn’t on the same Hall of Fame path that Trout and Puig are (I know it’s a long time off before we elect players from this team to the Hall, relax), but no one in baseball has the raw power that Stanton does. And unlike a lot of raw power hitters, Stanton doesn’t strike out at an historic rate and knows how to draw walks.

BATTING ORDER

Xander Bogaerts

Yasiel Puig

Mike Trout

Giancarlo Stanton

Freddie Freeman

Bryce Harper

Derek Norris

Anthony Rendon

Rougned Odor

BENCH PLAYERS

Salvador Perez (C, Kansas City Royals): Perez is a big catcher who has managed to stay healthy while catching every day. His offensive numbers are not terribly impressive, but again, the talent pool at this position is not full of recent success stories.

Anthony Rizzo (1B, Chicago Cubs): Quietly, because he plays for a terrible baseball team, Rizzo is putting together a very nice season, seeing his walks increase and his strikeout rate drop at a very high rate. In short, he’s turning into a Freddie Freeman-type player and I’m okay with having two of those on my roster.

Andrelton Simmons (SS, Atlanta Braves): Simmons beat out slick fielding Indians prospect Francisco Lindor because his defense is unrivaled and he already has the Major League experience that the very young (but very developed) Lindor does not. Simmons will not be a late game pinch-hitting option.

Manny Machado (3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles): You would think, given the hype, that Machado has been a great hitter, but he hasn’t. It’s his glove that has been very valuable, leading the Majors in dWAR last season. The bat should come (hopefully with some maturity) and even if it doesn’t, the defensive flexibility that he provides is a big plus. With him, Rendon, and Bogaerts, you have three guys who can play at least two different positions in the infield each.

Billy Hamilton (OF, Cincinnati Reds): Hamilton was the toughest add here, beating out Pirates prospect Gregory Polanco, Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, and Astros center fielder George Springer, because he brings something to the table that few players in recent memory have brought: blinding speed. In a late game situation, with someone like Derek Norris standing on first, Hamilton would be the ideal game changer.

PITCHING ROTATION

Chris Sale (LHP, Chicago White Sox): I tried for years to write off Chris Sale. His slight frame and terrifying delivery screamed “ARM INJURY!!!!” And yet, other than some time missed earlier this season with minor soreness, Sale has been healthy in his now 3rd season as a Major League starting pitcher. In his two previous seasons (I’m largely discounting the years the White Sox used him as a reliever), Sale was a sure-fire top of the rotation guy who finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting each year, but was not necessarily someone you’d lump into the “Best Pitcher in the Game” category immediately. That has changed this year. Sale currently sports a sub 2.00 ERA, his highest K/9 as a starter, and a WHIP so microscopic (0.67) that he is entering not just “Best Pitcher in the Game” category, but “Best Pitching Season in the Modern Era” category. Of course, pitchers have half seasons like this (we call it Ubaldo Jimenzing), but everything Sale has done so far leans toward not just a stretch of good luck, but a pitcher who is beginning to peak. And that peak might be rising up to Mount Kershaw before long.

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, New York Yankees): Tanaka just qualifies for this team, as he won’t turn 26 until November 1 and that’s good because he deserves to be on any list, created by any person, on the Internet. At the time of his signing, many made Hideki Irabu or Kei Igawa comparisons because Tanaka, like Irabu and Igawa, is Japanese. That and the fact that they have pitched for the New York Yankees is literally the only thing those three men have in common. Tanaka has been a revelation in the Majors and is the sole driving force behind the Yankees not chasing the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros for the worst record in the American League. Tanaka is 10-1 (I don’t care about w-l record, but it looks pretty), sports a sub-1.00 WHIP and an ERA+ of 200. Those numbers for a rookie pitcher, even though Tanaka had great success pitching professionally in Japan, are incredible. Consider those numbers only in the context of a 25 year old prospect and they’re incredible. The race between Tanaka and Chris Sale for the American League Cy Young should be fantastic to watch, even if their respective teams aren’t. Tanaka has already been worth 3.5 wins to the Yankees, making his $22 million annual salary seem more than deserved so far in his young career.

Julio Teheran (RHP, Atlanta Braves): It’s not that Julio Teheran came out of nowhere. He has been a highly touted pitcher for many years. He was a fixture on Top 100 prospect lists before making his debut, along with two other Braves prospects (Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado) both of whom have flamed out to this point. For a while, Teheran looked like a potential flame out as well. In spot starts for the Braves in 2011 and 2012, Teheran was wildly inconsistent and prone to pitching too much to contact, despite his great arsenal. Last season, he put together a campaign good enough to finish 5th in NL Rookie of the Year voting, but wasn’t the kind of pitcher who was going to make a list of the five best starting pitchers under 25. 2014 has shown that Teheran was really just not far enough along in his development in those first two seasons of spot starts. His ERA+ has skyrocketed over 150 and his WHIP has dipped below 1.00 and while his strikeouts have dropped, he is on pace to throw close to 200 innings, anchoring a very depleted pitching staff. And at age 23, we’re likely only seeing the start of what Teheran can be.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, San Francisco Giants): Along with Sale, the only holdover from the 2012 staff, Bumgarner continues to pitch solidly for the Giants. His numbers compared to 2013 are seemingly all different (+ and -) but all within a similar range, showing something that I guess we can call consistency (example: His ERA is 1/10 of a run lower and his K/9 is about 1 strikeout higher, while his WHIP is .14 higher than last season). In short, he’s striking more guys out and pitching to contact more (almost 2 more hits/9) but the results are the same (in fact, his FIP is actually lower in 2014 than in 2013, which you wouldn’t expect given the jump in hits allowed). All of these statistics are a long way of saying, when you’ve got a 6’5″ lefty with a 4-pitch arsenal, who strikes out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings AND he’s under 25, he makes your rotation each and every time.

Sonny Gray (RHP, Oakland Athletics): Our fifth starter doesn’t fit the mold of your typical Major League starting pitcher. Gray stands only 5’11”. Generally, right handed pitchers below 6′ have a difficult time finding success because they’re pitching on a lower plane than their taller rivals. Pitching from that lower plane will allow most hitters to see the ball sooner at eye level, giving them that fraction of time that makes identifying a pitch that much easier. Gray has defied the 6′ or over notion in his 24 career starts. The former Vanderbilt standout offers a fastball in the mid-90s, an excellent sinker, and his best swing-and-miss pitch, a curveball. Gray has also been throwing a changeup more often as he develops as a full-time starter. In addition, Gray isn’t just a product of pitching at O.co Coliseum, as his road splits are dramatically better than his home (lower ERA and WHIP with a higher K/9). There were a number of options at the #5 spot, including current starters who you’ll find in the bullpen below and two of the game’s best pitchers who you’ll find in a special section, but Gray has shown little signs of being a one-year wonder and I think spends the next handful of years as the ace of one of the best real-life staffs in baseball.

BULLPEN

Michael Wacha (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Trevor Rosenthal (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Carlos Martinez (RHP, St. Louis Cardinals)

Addison Reed (RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks)

Yordano Ventura (RHP, Kansas City Royals)

Ian Krol (LHP, Detroit Tigers

-There’s no real need for individual analysis here. Until Wacha develops a useful third pitch, I like him better in a relief role, despite his great success to this point in his young career. Ventura, who is a starter, finds himself in the bullpen for similar reasons and additionally because he’s just a little too short to be a right-handed two pitch pitcher. The list of those guys who were successful starting pitchers is not a long or existent one. The rest of the bullpen is high-upside filler, really. The bullpen talent pool does not feature many dynamic youngsters outside of the few you see here (plus Addison Reed, by default).

OF NOTE

Jose Fernandez (RHP, Miami Marlins)

Matt Harvey (RHP, New York Mets)

-Not including these two pitchers felt wrong. But with both recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s very hard to leave off a healthy pitcher like Sonny Gray or Julio Teheran. As much as we’ve all been programmed to think that pitchers can come back from Tommy John surgery “as good as ever” that’s not always the case, as no two bodies (and thus no two arms) are the same. Fernandez’s injury was especially unfortunate because the Marlins look like a contender for a playoff spot this season, with big improvements from Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez in the rotation. For Harvey, he made New York Mets games must-watch spectacles, which they most certainly are not now in his absence. If healthy, and where they were before their injuries, they’d both be the centerpieces of this rotation,bumping out Gray and Teheran. Until then, I’m going with healthy arms. But I will say, baseball without Harvey and Fernandez is just slightly less enjoyable.

2014 World Cup Preview

May 29, 2014 / Jason / Leave a comment

*Important(?) Note* I started working on this post in mid-May. From then to the time that I hit publish in a few moments, a lot of things have happened relevant to the World Cup. Luis Suarez had knee surgery (not mentioned below because I had written the Uruguay post prior to that news) and many nations have finalized their 23-man rosters (I wrote the US’s post after Clarence Goodson was left off the 23-man roster). Between the time you see this and the time the World Cup starts, even more things will happen. That’s sort of the thing with life. Things happen.*

On June 12, you will finally be required by law to watch the kind of football you don’t think you enjoy, but probably would if you would just give it a chance.

Like me with bell peppers or the beach, you might have the preconceived notion that you hate soccer. In fact, you might have tried to watch soccer before and realized, ugh, “this doesn’t taste good,” er, “I don’t enjoy watching this.”

But like I have with bell peppers and the beach, you too will realize the beauty and complexity of soccer, once you get past all of the screaming children in the sand or the jarring mixture of textures. Or whatever it is that predisposes you to hating world football.

Every four years, much like Michael Phelps and Paul Begala, the World Cup pops up and reminds you that it exists. I’ve said before that following club soccer can be a bit of a challenge. It’s a challenge I enjoy very much. But I understand the objection some have. Sort of. Not really.

In England alone, clubs can compete in four different tournaments at the same time (the Premier League season, the UEFA Champions or Europa leagues, the Football Association Cup, and the League Cup). This is very complicated and frankly, not all of the clubs take every one of those matches quite seriously. And beyond that, it’s often difficult to keep track of which player is playing where, with star players being bought and sold like Eminem CDs at an FYE (dated reference?).

The World Cup though is different. The World Cup is a battle for, well, world superiority. Players aren’t traded by their countries (though if Brazil would like to trade David Luiz to the US for Eddie Johnson, sign me up). There aren’t four different tournaments happening at once. 32 teams are divided in a somewhat balanced manner into 8 groups of 4. One month later, a champion is crowned.

This year’s World Cup takes place in Brazil, whose primary export is one-named soccer players. And while the lead up to this tournament hasn’t exactly been the joyous political celebration one would hope for, I try to keep the politics out of this blog, so we’ll focus solely on the football.

What will follow will be a fairly long post, with a brief synopsis of what to expect from each of the 32 nations, players to watch, key group stage matches, and other minutiae. If you care not for that stuff, just scroll down to the bottom to see who I’m picking to win the whole darn thing. Otherwise, happy reading/typo catching.

GROUP A or NO, REALLY, THIS IS TOTALLY FAIR. WE’RE NOT GIVING BRAZIL AN ADVANTAGE

Brazil

Past Success: Winners in 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002. Fell to the Netherlands in the quarterfinals in 2010.

Expectations: Anything outside of victory is a failure at any World Cup for Brazil. In a World Cup played on Brazilian soil those lofty expectations are only magnified.

Key Match: June 12 v. Croatia. Brazil will play, as hosts, in the traditional opening match of the tournament. The Croats should not be a challenge to the Brazilians, but what will be is how this young team responds to the pressure that day.

Crucial Player: Neymar (Forward). The young superstar backed up all of the hype about him at the 2013 Confederations Cup, but the World Cup is a different animal. After a season at Barcelona it will be interesting to see how much the young forward has developed and matured. Known at times for diving and being an instigator, Neymar will have to lead by example, even if the traditional captainship belongs to central defender Thiago Silva.

Cameroon

Past Success: Final 8 (aka the Quarterfinals) in 1990.

Expectations: The pack of teams beyond Brazil are all very evenly matched on paper. Many will expect The Indomitable Lions to struggle playing in South America. Getting out of Group A should be considered a success.

Key Match: June 13 v. Mexico. A fascinating match on paper, this will be a table-setter in the race for the second bid into the knockout stage. Much like for Mexico, a win here will give the Cameroonians hope that they can succeed against popular opinion.

Crucial Player: Samuel Eto’o (F). The captain might be 73 years old (he’s “only” 33), but he’s still the most important player on this squad. The defense and midfield possess players with top flight European experience like Benoit Assou-Ekotto (currently QPR, formerly Tottenham Hotspur) and Alex Song (Barcelona), but Eto’o is the leader of the bunch and will need to be a scoring threat.

Croatia

Past Success: Third place in 1998.

Expectations: Strange. This is a really solid squad. Unfortunately for them, their best player, Bayern Munich striker Mario Mandzukic is suspended for the opening game against Brazil because he’s kind of an insane person (in this instance, for a studs-high (that is, going in deliberately with your cleats) attack on an opponent in the second leg of Croatia’s World Cup playoff game). Knowing that they’ll likely be down 3 points right away, their margin for error is nil. But there’s enough talent here to see them into the Round of 16.

Key Match: June 23 vs. Mexico. It’ll be the last match of the group for both teams and could be the decider for the second spot in the Round of 16.

Crucial Player: Luka Modric (MF). Never a model for consistency as a footballer, Modric will need to be the table-setter for Croatia if they’re going to advance. He ended the season at Real Madrid as a fixture in their lineup and a key contributor. He’ll need to be more than just a contributor, especially without Mandzukic in match 1 against Brazil.

Mexico

Past Success: Round of 8 in 1970 and 1986.

Expectations: After nearly missing the tournament, no team enters the World Cup as more of a wild card than El Tri. The team that has seen more managers in the past 9 months than an Arby’s will see in 9 years, has the talent to match their previous World Cup high-water marks and the soap opera drama to see them take the trip back north on June 24 with nothing to show for a tumultuous four year period.

Key Match: June 23 vs. Croatia. Croatia is probably better on paper than Mexico, especially given the trials and tribulations we’ve seen, but this Mexican team can be dynamic and could out-gun the Croats.

Crucial Player: Rafa Marquez (CB or CDM…in short, he plays in the middle and marks the other team’s best striker). In a group with Samuel Eto’o, Neymar, and, when El Tri face them, an un-suspended Mario Mandzukic, Marquez might have the toughest job of any centerback in the entire group stage. Look for him to be ultra physical, especially with the young Neymar, who he could rattle.

In the end…

1. Brazil (9 points)

2. Croatia (4 points)

3. Mexico (2 points)

4. Cameroon (1 point)

GROUP B or SORRY, AUSTRALIA

Australia

Past Success: Advanced to the knockout round in the 2006 World Cup (Germany).

Expectations: In this group, 3 points would be a really nice trip to Brazil for the Socceroos. They’re currently ranked 59th in the world by FIFA.

Key Match: June 13 vs. Chile. If they’re going to have any chance at advancing out of this group (they won’t), they’ll need to beat Chile and do it convincingly (they won’t).

Crucial Player: Mile Jedinak (MF). Jedinak is coming off of a surprisingly successful season in England with Crystal Palace and will captain this squad of older players who will try to defend solidly at the back and score on counter attacks.

Chile

Past Success: 3rd place, 1962 (played coincidentally in Chile)

Expectations: A dark horse to finish second in this group, given their acclimation to playing in South America and a FIFA ranking of 13.

Key Match: June 23 vs. Netherlands. This is probably Spain’s group to lose. It’s very likely both teams enter this match with three points (thanks Australia!!!) knowing a win will get them to the knockout round.

Crucial Player: Alexis Sanchez (Forward). Chile will need the Barcelona star (they’re all stars at Barcelona) to bury whatever chances he gets to score if they’re going to advance. They’ll also need Juventus midfielder Arturo Vidal to be the table-setter for the strikers that he consistently is in Italy.

Netherlands

Past Success: Runner-up to Spain in 2010. Also runners up in 1974 and 1978.

Expectations: Relatively low for a Dutch squad. Dutch football, or at least this version, is built around scoring goals. Scoring goals often comes from team chemistry. This team has none of that.

Key Match: June 13 vs. Spain. The rematch of the 2010 Final will set the tone for the group stage for the Dutch. A bad loss could infect the camp and cause an early exit.

Crucial Player: Arjen Robben (MF). Robben is a tough player to figure out. He’s blessed with incredible acceleration and a daft finishing touch. He’s also a diver who is commonly known to be disliked by a number of his fellow countrymen. His motivation, especially after a long and mostly successful run with Bayern Munich this season, will be a huge factor.

Spain

Past Success: Winners in 2010, their only victory in the tournament.

Expectations: Not as high as you’d expect. No European team has ever won the World Cup on South American soil and this Spanish side comes in with questions up front.

Key Match: June 13 vs. Netherlands. I can’t find a soul who thinks that Spain is going to lose to the Dutch in the opening match of the group. But tone setting is important. A shaky performance could give the Chileans added confidence heading into the second match in the group stage.

Crucial Player: Diego Costa (F). On a team with names like Xavi, Iniesta, Sergio Busquets, Iker Casillas, Cesc Fabregas, Pique, David Silva, and Sergio Ramos, Spain’s success will come down to whether or not the Brazilian born striker is healthy and can score goals with the proclivity he showed at Atletico Madrid in 2013-14. Anything but the best from Costa (who may have a hamstring tear that will keep him out of the tournament), a player with exactly one appearance with Spain to his name, means relying on some shaky, aging strikers for Spain, which could spell doom in the knockout stage.

In the end…

1. Spain (9 points)

2. Chile (6 points)

3. Netherlands (3 points)

4. Australia (0 points)

GROUP C or GROUP OF EASY KNOCKOUT STAGE OPPONENTS

Columbia

Past Success: Knockout stage in 1990. That’s it. That’s the greatest footballing success in Colombia’s history.

Expectations: They were very high. I say “were” because their best player, Radamel Falcao, tore his ACL earlier this year. Typical recovery times would have him out for the World Cup. The AS Monaco star however is on the provisional roster for Colombia and is, in his mind, on track to play in this tournament with about half the required rehab time. So your guess is as good as mine as to what the expectations should be. Especially in such a lackluster group.

Key Match: These four teams are so similar that every match is a crucial and hard to predict match. If Falcao was healthy, this group would flesh out differently. Without him, Colombia is probably not significantly better than Japan, Greece, or the Ivory Coast.

Crucial Player: Radamel Falcao (F). If he plays and is even close to healthy, he is electric enough to propel this team towards the semifinals. Colombia ran over their competition in qualifying for this World Cup in a most un-Colombian way. If Falcao is unhealthy, they’ll have an impossibly difficult time scoring goals with the burden left on the shoulders of Porto striker Jackson Martinez who is not Falcao.

Cote d’Ivoire

Past Success: They have only qualified for the World Cup twice (in 2006 and 2010) and did not advance past the group stage in either tournament.

Expectations: They come in ranked 21st in the world and possessing the world’s best midfielder in Yaya Toure and a group of prolific scorers in Didier Drogba (36 years old), Wilfried Bony, Gervinho, and Salomon Kalou. They can win this group if their lackluster, old, and somewhat patchwork defense can play even mildly well. Scoring goals won’t be the problem. An escape from the group will be a nice step for Les Elephants.

Key Match: June 19 v. Colombia. I promise I’m not being paid for each mention of the Colombian striker, but if he’s healthy, this will be an electric goal scoring fest. If he’s not healthy, it’ll be a must-win for Les Elephants.

Crucial Player: Yaya Toure (MF). We learned a lot of things about Yaya Toure this season. We learned that he is the world’s best center midfielder when he’s motivated. We learned that in the 89th minute of play, he’s faster than a Bugatti on a straightaway in the Utah desert. We learned that he’s lethal from the spot (penalty kicks). We learned that he really, really loves his birthday. What we’ll find out in Brazil is if he can lead an unbalanced team to success previously unseen by playing both ways, because his physicality will be needed defensively.

Greece

Past Success: Qualified for the World Cup in 1994 and 2010. Did not advance past the group stage. Sensing a theme? The Greeks did win the 2004 Euros (like the World Cup but for, well, European nations) in a surprise, so they have some history of success.

Expectations: Can they get out of the group? Certainly. FIFA has them ranked 10th in the world presently. Can they win a knockout stage match against one of the teams from Group D? That’s unlikely.

Key Match: June 24 vs. Cote d’Ivoire. It could be for all the marbles and a more favorable Round of 16 draw. Or it could be as part of a muddled, messy race to get an all-important three points in a group that will likely see a lot of draws.

Crucial Player: Vasilis Torosidis (LB). Playing on the left side defensively, Torosidis will be key to Greece’s attack. He’s also an outside specialist with 7 goals in his international career, despite playing from the back. He’ll be joined by everyone short of Jesse Consopolous.

Japan

Past Success: A 5-time qualifier, the Japanese have twice advanced out of the group stage (2002, 2010), making them perhaps the most successful nation in this awful group.

Expectations: This is not the 2010 Japanese team. Currently ranked 47th in the world, it’s hard to see this team providing much of a threat in the midfield, or on the back line. It’s also very difficult to gauge the expectations of Asian nations because they don’t face the same level of competition as the teams in UEFA (Europe) and CONMEBOL (South America). One thing this team can do, if their forwards get the opportunity, is score.

Key Match: June 14 v. Cote d’Ivoire. Conceding 3 points in this match will be a quick nail in the coffin for the Japanese national team.

Crucial Player: Shinji Kagawa (F). The Manchester United player and former Borussia Dortmund star isn’t so much the straw that stirs the drink as much as he is the glass, ice, tonic, gin, and lime wedge. Whether he was shackled playing for the Red Devils or whether his success at Dortmund was a mirage, he’ll need to put this team on his back in the group stage if they’re to repeat their success from 2010.

In the end…

1. Colombia (7 points)

2. Cote d’Ivoire (5 points)

3. Greece (2 points)

4. Japan (1 point)

GROUP D or THE REAL GROUP OF DEATH

Costa Rica

Past Success: Advanced to the knockout round in 1990. Haven’t advanced past the group stage in their two appearances since 1990.

Expectations: In this group, they’re going to play the spoiler. England, Italy, and Uruguay could all conceivably make a run at the semifinals. One of them is going to go home after only three matches and Costa Rica could have something to say about that.

Key Match: June 24 v. England. Who knows what will have happened before the final matches of Group D is played. But if England needs 3 points entering this match, those three points could be hard to come by.

Crucial Player: Bryan Ruiz (F). The PSV (Dutch League) goal-scorer will be the primary offensive focal point for a team who knows their place coming into this tournament. On a squad lacking players with true top level, Champions League-quality experience, Ruiz will have to lead by example. Especially in a group with the likes of Mario Balotelli, Luis Suarez, and Wayne Rooney, to name just 3 of the 69 players on the other three squads who bring a world more experience in the international game.

England

Past Success: The 13-time participant has only won the World Cup once, in 1966. England fans are totally unaware of this fact and don’t constantly remind themselves and the players of it.

Expectations: It’s England. In a World Cup. It doesn’t matter if they’re playing it on the surface of Neptune, the English fans, players, and the Football Association will all expect the trophy to come back to the motherland.

Key Match: June 19 v. Uruguay. Beyond the intrigue of Luis Suarez squaring off against a number of his Liverpool teammates (as many as six Reds could see significant playing or even starting time on this squad), a win by the English against a South American opponent on South American soil could be a really big statement. Especially against a 2010 semifinalist.

Crucial Player: Joe Hart (GK). I could literally pick any of the 23 players on this squad and make a coherent argument for why they’re important. For the young guys, one of them is going to need to be a dependable off-the-bench guy. For Daniel Sturridge, he’s going to need to show that he can score without Luis Suarez. For Steven Gerrard, he’ll need to show that, in perhaps his final World Cup, his selection was a wise one. But Hart is the wild card here. As a Manchester City fan I can tell you that Hart is the best goalkeeper in the world on occasion. Most other times, he’s erratic. Almost confused. Against the strikers England will face in its first two matches especially, Hart will need to be much closer to the former than the latter if The Three Lions are going to play in the Round of 16

Italy

Past Success: Winners in 1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006.

Expectations: In 2010, the Italians went to South Africa and finished fourth in their group, behind noted soccer powerhouses New Zealand, Paraguay, and Slovakia. For a four-time champion, with the level of talent possessed by the Italians, this was an embarrassment, only outdone by their 2006 Finals opponent France, who we’ll get to a bit later. In 2014, Italy carries with it the same burden of “No European Team Has Ever…” into South America that the likes of England and Germany and Spain do, but they don’t have the same pressure that those countries do. England, Germany, and Spain didn’t fail spectacularly in 2010. Expectations are probably mixed. But that’s when Gli Azzurri (the Italian national team’s nickname, not an aging fullback) is most dangerous. No one really expected the 2006 team to win the tournament, but they did, using their strong, 3 man defensive back line and goalkeeper Gigi Buffon to grind out victories. This team is no different, and frankly, the talent level may be better.

Key Match: June 14 v. England. A fantastic matchup of Serie A all-stars versus Barclays Premier League stars, this match will be the key to this entire group. A draw muddles the picture some. A victory by either side makes Uruguay’s path to the Round of 16 that much easier.

Crucial Player: Mario Balotelli (F). The enigmatic striker is without question, one of the world’s most talented players. Built like an NFL linebacker, Balotelli possesses slot receiver speed, and a flair for the most dramatic. He’s also the world’s most famous headcase. He is a man whose Wikipedia page reads like a sketch comedy show. He helped carry Italy to the finals of the 2012 European Championship, where they fell to Spain. If Super Mario is right (mentally), Italy can go a long way in this tournament because the roster around him is filled with experience, some youth, physicality, and dynamism. This will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch in Brazil.

Uruguay

Past Success: Winners in 1930 and 1950. Advanced to the semifinals in 2010.

Expectations: The Uruguayans are an interesting case in this tournament. Yes, they’re coming off of a miraculous run to the 2010 World Cup Semifinals, where they nearly beat the Dutch. Yes, they have one of the world’s three best goalscorers in his prime. Yes, they’re playing in their neighbor’s backyard. And yes, they have a really awesome flag. But Uruguay struggled mightily to qualify for this tournament, needing to win a final spot through a two-leg matchup with soccer non-power Jordan. They drew 0-0 at home, after trouncing the Jordanians in the Middle East. And so while expectations should be high, nothing that Uruguay has done since South Africa in 2010 would lead you to believe that they can make a serious run in this tournament.

Key Match: June 14 v. Costa Rica. It seems strange to pick this match because their next two opponents are England and Italy, respectively. But I think we’ll have a good idea which Uruguay has shown up by how they handle Costa Rica. They should win by multiple goals on talent alone. If they don’t, Italy and England might breathe a sigh of relief.

Crucial Player: Edinson Cavani (F). You would think that Luis Suarez, the aforementioned goal-scoring wizard, would be the crucial player, but it is Cavani who has often found it difficult to fit in to the Uruguayan offensive attack. And Cavani has just spent a year as a passive fixture in Paris Saint-Germain’s offensive attack, spending a good deal of time watching Zlatan Ibrahimovic (not in your picture for the 2014 World Cup) tear up Ligue 1 in France. Cavani cannot be passive in Brazil. Suarez showed at Liverpool this season that he’s at his best with a sidekick. Daniel Sturridge played that role perfectly, but unfortunately for fans of Los Charruas, Sturridge doesn’t have a Uruguayan grandmother. With Uruguay weak defensively and in the midfield, goal scoring will be key. Suarez can’t do it alone.

In the end…

1. Italy 7 points

2. England 7 points

3. Uruguay 1 point

4. Costa Rica 1 point

GROUP E or YOU’RE WELCOME, FRANCE

Ecuador

Past Success: This will be their third trip to a World Cup. In 2006, they advanced to the knockout round.

Expectations: None. Zero. Zilch. Unlike, well, nearly every other South American nation outside of Suriname, Ecuador has no history of success. Their first trip to the World Cup came in 2002. Currently ranked 28th in FIFA’s rankings, they are the underdoggiest of South American underdogs in this tournament, with only one player on their roster (read more about him in a second!) with recent big-time European club experience. A trip out of the group stage, even in perhaps the weakest group in the tournament, would be a great outcome for Ecuador.

Key Match: June 20 v. Honduras. Evenly matched in a lot of ways, if either team loses this match, their trip to Brazil will be over before it started.

Crucial Player: Antonio Valencia (MF). The captain and Manchester United player leads a squad of mostly Ecuadorian club players. It’s incumbent on a guy with a reputation for uneven play in England to be a rock for a team that will need on-the-field leadership.

France

Past Success: 14th appearance. Winners in 1998. Runners-up in 2006.

Expectations: France’s 2010 trip to South Africa went about as poorly as a trip could go. Les Blues pulled the soccer equivalent of being mistaken for a criminal and getting thrown in jail without a trial by lawyer, before eventually having your body dumped into a crocodile pond. Turmoil, in fighting, and a hated coach led France from group favorites to last place finishers (behind South Africa). Now, under new leadership, this club brings a wealth of big time experience and star power into a group that they should wipe the floor with. And very well might.

Key Match: June 15 v. Honduras. I’m inclined to say “none,” but I’ll go with the table-setter. This is not a team built with a solid foundation of togetherness. A draw or loss against a mediocre Honduras side could shake up Group E like (insert a metaphor for Shake n’ Bake).

Crucial Player: Franck Ribery (MF). There’s no wrong answer to this question. France lacks a real weakness. They’re so solid that they left Samir Nasri, starter and key player for EPL champions Manchester City, at home. Ribery is a vexing player. His temper has gotten the best of him in the past. But his talent is unparalleled in this group. If France does have a weakness (they don’t), it’s up front (it’s not). Ribery’s goal scoring ability on the wing will be a boost to whomever starts up front between Karim Benzema, Loic Remy, and Olivier Giroud.

Honduras

Past Success: Qualified for two previous World Cups, including 2010, where they finished last in Group H, behind fellow 2014 Group E participant Switzerland.

Expectations: A dark horse pick here in the States, I think people forget that they’re not playing this tournament in Honduras. The roster features a number of MLS players, and a couple of English Championship division guys, but no true star. A first-time trip out of the Group Stage would be deemed a big success.

Key Match: June 25 v. Switzerland. The two played to a 0-0 draw in the 2010 Group Stage. Given the relative equality of the non-France teams in this group, all of the points are going to be vital.

Crucial Player: Roger Espinoza (MF). The Wigan Athletic man is a dynamic wing player, with EPL experience. As rudimentary of a point as it may be, sometimes having a singular dynamic force can be all the difference.

Switzerland

Past Success: Making their 10th appearance, the Swiss haven’t reached the Quarterfinals since 1954.

Expectations: Switzerland comes into this tournament as a top-10 team (no. 8) in FIFA’s rankings, which would surprise you if you took FIFA’s rankings really seriously. That said, on talent alone, the Swiss are much better than Ecuador and Honduras. The problem is that they’ve never really put that talent together in a World Cup. It’s a roster made up of guys who play very different styles of football, in very different leagues: (Serie A (Italy) and the Bundesliga (Germany)). Much like with Uruguay, talent is wonderful, but you can have great ingredients and come out with a really crappy dish.

Key Match: June 25 v. Honduras. Group E’s second place spot will likely come down to this match.

Crucial Player: Gokhan Inler (MF). The captain and Napoli midfielder is in every way the straw that stirs the Swiss drink (cocoa with mini-marshmallows). The defensive back for Switzerland is solid, as is the rest of the midfield. It’s up front where the strikers will need great service from the mid. It’ll be incumbent on Inler to place balls well for the inexperienced strikers to poach from.

In the end…

1. France 9 points

2. Switzerland 6 points

3. Honduras 1 point

4. Ecuador 1 point

GROUP F or A REALLY UNCOMPELLING BATTLE FOR SECOND PLACE

Argentina

Past Success: Participating in their 15th World Cup, the Argentines won the tournament in 1978 and 1986. They suffered a disappointing 4-0 loss to Germany in the 2010 World Cup quarterfinals.

Expectations: High. But how high? Currently ranked 6th by FIFA, Argentina boasts one of the two most recognizable active soccer players in the world in Lionel Messi. Messi will turn 27 during this tournament, and will likely have two more World Cup go-rounds in his career. But so far, the player regarded by some as the best in the world has been a disappointment at the world’s biggest tournament, most recently netting zero goals in South Africa. Offensively, Argentina is a powerhouse. Beyond Messi, there’s Sergio Agüero, Gonzalo Higuaín, Ezequiel Lavezzi, and Angel di Maria, all stars in the European game and all capable of big things on the pitch. The questions for Argentina are defensive depth and in net, where the likely starter, Sergio Romero, is a less than elite goalkeeper. The best thing going for Argentina outside of their offensive attack, though, is a relatively easy path to the quarterfinals, assuming a victory in Group F.

Key Match: Not Applicable. Argentina is many classes better than any of three teams they’ll face to start this tournament. Anything short of 9 points in those three matches would be a disaster, even given their defensive questions.

Crucial Player: Pablo Zabaleta (RB). At Manchester City, Zabaleta made a name for himself playing end to end, often streaking up the pitch past the midfielder playing in front of him, crossing balls into the box. He was a rock for a Man City team that battled injuries throughout their championship campaign in 2013-14. In Brazil, Zabaleta will anchor an otherwise flimsy defensive line. He’ll get help from the supremely physical (see: dirty) Javier Mascherano playing a defensive midfield position, but with all of their offensive firepower, Argentina will need Zabaleta to be more defensive-minded than he’s been accustomed to being in club play.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Past Success: Absolutely none as this is the first time Bosnia and Herzegovina have qualified for a World Cup final.

Expectations: Also absolutely none. If having players with accent marks in their names equaled goals, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B and H from here on out) would be our champions. Outside of that, you’re looking at a team ranked by FIFA in the mid-20s with a star striker (Edin Dzeko), a Premier League goalkeeper (Asmir Begovic), and 21 other guys of similar skill to each other. Of note, B and H played Argentina in late 2013 in a friendly (in the common city of St. Louis, Missouri, USA) and lost 2-0 and followed that up with a 2-0 loss to Egypt.

Key Match: June 21 v. Nigeria. Not to take anything away from Iran (but I am), but this should be your battle for second place in this group.

Crucial Player: Edin Dzeko (F). The crucial player is not always the biggest star, but in B and H’s case, it is. It’s unrealistic to think that the first-time participant can have any modicum of success in Brazil without a big tournament from Dzeko. That will mean lots of poached goals and physical play with opposing defenders. If Dzeko shies away from that, B and H will be left without much of a prayer.

Iran

Past Success: Participants in 1978, 1998, and 2006, Iran has never exited the Group Stage.

Expectations: About as high as you’d expect for a team made up almost entirely of Iranian club team players.

Key Match: June 21 v. Argentina. Because, why not? Expectations for this match will be lower than perhaps any other team will face in this tournament. The gulf in class is enormous. With nothing to lose, this is Iran’s World Cup Final.

Crucial Player: I’d be lying if I said I watched a lot of Iran Pro League football. I don’t know a single player on this roster outside of Fulham winger Ashkan Dejagah, who I don’t expect to be much of a dominant force in this tournament. Anyone who says they know more about the Iranian national team is either Iranian, an insane person, or a really terrible liar.

Nigeria

Past Success: This will be the Super Eagles (best nickname in international football) fourth trip to the World Cup with runs out of the group stage in 1994 and 1998.

Expectations: There’s certainly hope for a run out of this group. In 2010, Nigeria was paired with Argentina, Korea Republic, and Greece and mustered only 1 point (a draw with South Korea). That South Korea team advanced to the knockout stage with just 4 points. My point is, as long as Nigeria beats Iran, they’ve got a shot. But an extended run in this tournament is not in the forecast.

Key Match: June 21 v. Bosnia and Herzegovina. Don’t expect many goals from this match and don’t set your DVR to record it, hoping to catch one of the classics of the sport. This will be a brutally physical, slow, sludge of a match. Nigeria doesn’t have any true goal scoring prowess and will rely on a physical backline and their crucial player to slow down Edin Dzeko and try to keep this match 0-0 and maybe steal a goal late.

Crucial Player: John Obi Mikel (DM). Mikel is not the kind of midfielder you can expect goals from. In 57 international matches, the 27 year old Chelsea player has 4 goals. He’s not here to score. He’s here to defend. In the past, Nigeria was known for their attack. That won’t be the case in 2014. In Brazil, they’ll need their backline and their central defensive midfielder to key them to victory (by draw).

In the end…

1. Argentina 9 points

2. Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 points

3. Nigeria 4 points

4. Iran 0 points

GROUP G or THE GROUP OF DEATH IF YOU IGNORE ALL THE FATAL FLAWS

Germany

Past Success: 17 time participants, and three time winners (most recently as West Germany in 1990). Germany finished 3rd in the 2006 and 2010 tournaments.

Expectations: Championship or bust. Regarded by many as the best side in Europe right now, Germany is that continent’s favorite to win its first South American World Cup.

Fatal Flaw: A special category for this group. Here in the US, we’ve heard a lot about how this is the GROUP OF DEATH and for the US, it is in a very symbolic way because all of these teams have recently eliminated the US from World Cups. But each team has a very glaring fatal flaw. For Germany it’s their complete lack of a true, natural striker. They will likely bring only two into this tournament. One of them is 35 year old Miroslav Klose and the other is 21 year old Kevin Volland. Each have their own fairly obvious problems. The midfield is the best and deepest in the world. There’s no argument there. Anyone who tries to argue by using the names “Xavi” and “Iniesta” is wrong. Germany’s second team midfield is still one of the three best in the world. But who is going to score those goals? The 35 year old who probably can’t give you 90 minutes or the 21 year old with exactly 1 international appearance in his young career?

Key Match: June 16 v. Portugal. A contender for the most intriguing match of the entire Group Stage, this will be the ultimate battle of team v. player. Team most often wins that contest, but player isn’t often as good as Cristiano Ronaldo in his prime.

Crucial Player: Philipp Lahm (DF or MF). There are very few players in the world like Germany’s captain. He’s my height (if you just stumbled upon this blog with no idea who I am or who Philipp Lahm is, I’m 5’8” on a good day), but plays a physical game. He’s a skilled enough midfielder that, despite being a natural fullback, could probably start on the wing on about 27 of the other midfields in this tournament. Where he starts for Germany is basically irrelevant (and as of me typing this, Germany has yet to finalize their 23-man roster). Lahm is going to play everywhere and do everything. If he does that well, Germany is a good bet to break through.

Ghana

Past Success: While it might seem like Ghana has the World Cup pedigree of Germany, this is only their third trip to the tournament, with their first being in 2006. After beating the US in 2010, Ghana advanced to the quarterfinals before ultimately losing to Uruguay on penalty kicks.

Expectations: Put it this way: Ghana would love to trade places with their African rivals Nigeria. The Black Stars (it’s their nickname, not a Donald Sterling thing) might be ranked just 38th in the world, but they boast far more talent on whole than any other African nation. Coming off of a near-trip to the semifinals in 2010 has to be a big feather in their cap. They’d just rather be in Nigeria’s group than this one.

Fatal Flaw: Goaltending. Whomever starts in net is coming in with very few international appearances and the experience of playing in either the Norwegian League, the First Capital Plus Bank Premier League (Ghana), or the Premier Soccer League (South Africa). In other words, they haven’t seen the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, the German midfield, or um…Jozy Altidore, very often.

Key Match: June 16 v. United States. Simply put: a must-win for either side, right out of the gate.

Crucial Player: Kevin Prince-Boateng (MF, FW). Prince doesn’t necessarily have a position. He can score goals. He can defend and do it very physically. And he can control the ball. He’s a dynamic player who still at age 27 hasn’t quite figured out what he is and how to be the best at whatever that is. If he plays well, Ghana could be the surprise team of this tournament.

Portugal

Past Success: This will be just the sixth time that Portugal has appeared in a World Cup. Their best finish was in 1966 when they wound up in third. In 2010, they lost 1-0 to Spain in the Round of 16.

Expectations: High. Even though they needed to win a playoff against Sweden to qualify for the World Cup, Portugal comes in ranked 3rd in the world. Of course, much of that is due to FIFA’s weirdness. Portugal isn’t the third best team in Europe, never mind the third best in the world. But with Cristiano Ronaldo in his prime and playing probably the most consistently great soccer of his career, an exit before the knockout stage would be devastating.

Fatal Flaw: One player teams do not win the World Cup. Sure, there are 10 other guys on the field with Ronaldo who play at high levels, but let’s not lie, if Ronaldo has a bad tournament, Portugal has no hope. If he excels, Portugal could, maybe, win the whole thing. No other country with even a hint of a chance at glory relies so much on one singular force the way that Portugal does.

Key Match: June 16 v. Germany. A win would put the world on notice. A loss would put Portugal behind the 8 ball with little-to-no margin for error.

Crucial Player: If you’re unsure, you haven’t been reading this section.

United States

Past Success: A 10-time participant, the US’s best ever finish was 3rd place back when my grandfather was 3 years old (1930). Recently, the US won its group in 2010 only to be ousted by Ghana. They failed to get out of their group in 2006, somehow made it to the quarterfinals in 2002, and embarrassed themselves by finishing in last place in the 1998 World Cup.

Expectations: Prior to the announcement of the group pairings, I don’t think expectations could have been higher. Look, we’re the United States. We don’t go light on the self-absorption. This is probably the best side the US has ever fielded in a World Cup and Jurgen Klinsmann is the best coach the US has ever had. That said, the march to the knockout stage could be a very, very brief one.

Fatal Flaw: The US isn’t really that good. Yes, I believe that this is the best US team my eyes have ever seen. And yes, I think that the future of American soccer, assuming Klinsmann stays on past this World Cup (he recently signed an extension through 2018) is brighter than it has ever been. But if I’m going to be critical of the level of competition that other country’s players face in club play, I have to do the same with the US. The American backline (pick any four guys…we’ll go with Geoff Cameron, Matt Besler, Fabian Johnson, and DaMarcus Beasley) doesn’t defend against the German midfield when they play Costa Rica in qualifying. They don’t face a striker like Cristiano Ronaldo when they play Panama. And they don’t face an attack like Ghana’s when they’re playing Jamaica (and yes, I know that Cameron plays at Stoke City in England). As a unit, especially defensively, the U.S. has very few opportunities to play the best sides in the world in games that matter. See: a friendly victory of Germany’s C team last year. This team will be ready to go and I expect them to play their best. But sometimes, your best only leaves you in fourth place.

Key Match: June 16 v. Ghana. It’s probably a little dramatic to say that the future of American soccer depends on the outcome of this match, but I’m a pretty dramatic guy. A win and hope will be high against a Portugal side that the US could conceivably draw against. A loss or even a draw and you’ve got to beat Germany and Portugal and I just don’t see that as an option.

Crucial Player: Michael Bradley (MF). He’s the best guy that we’ve got. Many people, myself included, thought that Bradley was a product of his father being the coach (as he was for the 2010 run). We were wrong. The Bradley that has blossomed under Klinsmann is a force from end-to-end. With the ball at his feet, you feel confident that Bradley is going to make the right pass 100% of the time. I can’t remember a US player instilling that sense of confidence in me. Any success that the US will have in Brazil will be a result of how well Bradley plays.

In the end…

1. Germany 9 points

2. Portugal 6 points

3. Ghana 1 point

4. USA 1 point

GROUP H or ARE YOU REALLY GONNA SCREW THIS ONE UP, BELGIUM?

Algeria

Past Success: Three previous trips. Three previous Group Stage defeats.

Expectations: See: Past Success.

Key Match: June 22 v. Korea Republic. Loser goes home. Winner probably goes home too, though they’ll at least get to hang on to hope a bit longer.

Crucial Player: Islam Slimani (F). The Sporting Lisboa striker has 17 international appearances and 9 goals, which is a pretty good ratio when you’re a striker for Algeria.

Belgium

Past Success: 12 appearances in the World Cup has netted Belgium just one top-4 finish (1986). Most recently, they have spent World Cup season sitting at home in 2006 and 2010, falling to 71st in the world in 2007.

Expectations: Immense. As recently as October of last year, Belgium was ranked fifth in the world. An injury to striker Christian Benteke, in the past, would have severely diminished expectations, but now, Belgium will simply plug-in electric 21 year old wunderkind Romelu Lukaku. Pair that with one of the cakiest of cakewalks to the knockout stage and we’re in full-blown Belgian Football Renaissance mode. This is probably just the beginning of an era of elite footballing for Belgium, but it could be a very sweet beginning.

Key Match: June 22 v. Russia. The opening match against Algeria should be an easy three points. Russia will provide more of a test for Belgium.

Crucial Player: Thibaut Courtois (GK). Courtois is perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world right now at the age of 22. The Group Stage shouldn’t be a problem, but the knockout stage could see him staring at the familiar face of Portugal and Real Madrid star Cristiano Ronaldo. This is a Belgian side without any glaring weakness and so in that situation, it is incumbent on the greatest strengths to play to their full potential.

Korea Republic aka Not The Bad One

Past Success: Semifinalists (as the co-host nation) in 2002, Korea Republic, aka South Korea, has never gotten that close in any of their other 7 trips to the World Cup.

Expectations: Not high. The 2002 team this is not. Presently ranked just 55th in the world, it’s a team without much of an identity, bringing in players from seven different leagues in Asia and Europe. Qualifying was no easy task either, as South Korea lost a home match to Iran and drew with non-power Lebanon. Of note: a 2013 friendly loss to fellow Group H opponent Russia.

Key Match: June 17 v. Russia. THE REMATCH!!! Okay, maybe it’s not that dramatic, but this is likely going to be the “winner takes second place” match in the group, assuming both beat Algeria, as they should.

Crucial Player: Park Chu-Young (FW). Park has had very little success during his time at Arsenal as he’s seen very little playing time, but on the international stage, he’s shown himself to be South Korea’s best scoring threat.

Russia

Past Success: Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has failed to advance to the knockout stage, only qualifying for the World Cup once, in 2002.

Expectations: Favorites to win the whole thing, according to one source I spoke to while riding a horse shirtless in a field for no reason. But seriously, that’s a terrible joke. You deserve better. This Russian team is led by coach Fabio Capello, who coached England’s national team from 2008-2012. Capello has also coached at Real Madrid, Juventus, and AC Milan. He is an interesting choice for a team made up of 22 Russian League players and one guy who plays for Sevilla, as Capello’s Italian roots and style do not exactly match with whatever it is the Russian style of football is. That said, it’s a group of players who are talented enough to get out of Group H.

Key Match: June 17 v. South Korea. See above.

Crucial Player: Aleksandr Kerzhakov (FW). Truth be told, I probably could have just made up a name here, but Kerzhakov is part of an electric front line at Zenit Saint Petersburg, where he takes a bit of a backseat to Brazilian star Hulk. There’s no backseat on this team. He’ll need to finish his chances with consistency if Russia is to have any run in this tournament.

In the end…

1. Belgium 9 points

2. Russia 4 points

3. Korea Republic 3 points

4. Algeria 1 point

ROUND OF 16 MATCHES

Brazil v. Chile

Brazil beat Chile 3-0 in the Round of 16 at the 2010 World Cup with a less talented squad while not playing at home. I think Brazil’s attack is just too much for the Chileans to overcome. 4-1 Brazil.

Spain v. Croatia

The Spaniards will pass Croatia to death and defeat them in a clinical, if not totally uninspiring 1-0 manner.

Colombia v. England

This should be a real gem of a match regardless of who finishes in second place in Group D. This is no exception. I like the youth and depth of England to win this one in extra time, with a big nod to their defense shutting down Falcao. 2-1 in extra time to England.

Cote d’Ivoire v. Italy

Too much talent for Italy and not enough defensive skill to stop it for Cote d’Ivoire. 2-0 Italy prevails.

France v. Bosnia and Herzegovina

Another case of talent winning out. 3-0 in favor of the French.

Switzerland v. Argentina

Perhaps the largest gap in talent that you’ll find in the Round of 16, Argentina cruises past an overmatched Swiss side 3-0, continuing what looks to be an impossibly easy march to the Quarterfinals.

Germany v. Russia

Russia has the striker that Germany would love, but Germany has the midfield that everyone envies. They control the ball and bury two in the second half in a nervy 2-0 victory over Putin’s Boys.

Portugal v. Belgium

The most intriguing of all the potential matchups you see here. Ronaldo picks up a hat trick, but the balance of the Belgian squad prevails in a thrilling 4-3 match.

QUARTERFINAL MATCHES

Brazil v. England

A quartet of must-see matches is headlined by this battle of the world’s soccer super-power and the sport’s home. A plucky England side keeps it close late into the second half before Willian buries the only goal the hosts will need. Brazil wins 1-0.

France v. Germany

Germany’s lack of a scoring threat up front doesn’t catch up to them just yet, as they escape with a 2-1 victory, through penalty kicks, against a France side that will have made everyone forget the 2010 fiasco.

Spain v. Italy

A rematch of the 2012 European final, this match is just a repeat, as Spain’s possession drives the Italians crazy. Look for Italy to lose a man to a red card late in the first half, as Spain cruises to a 3-0 victory and a spot in the semifinals.

Argentina v. Belgium

The magical ride from also-ran in 2007 to world power in 2014 comes to a painful end for Belgium as Lionel Messi nets a brace and Argentina prevails with a 3-2 win in extra time, finally providing the Argentines with a real challenge on the pitch.

SEMIFINAL MATCHES

Brazil v. Germany

After struggling to put England away, Brazil comes out guns blazing against Germany, shocking them early with 2 goals in the first 10 minutes. Germany’s lack of a striker finally catches up to them as they can’t close the gap, ultimately falling 3-1 to Brazil.

Argentina v. Spain

Lionel Messi v. FC Barcelona, essentially. Advantage: Messi. Despite not possessing the defensive prowess of Italy, Argentina plays opossum against Spain, allowing them to control 75% of the match, but pouncing on mistakes and finishing on counter attacks, winning 2-1 to set up the most dramatic World Cup final in recent memory.

NO ONE CARES ABOUT THE THIRD PLACE MATCH MATCH

Germany v. Spain

Germany takes home their third consecutive third-place finish with a 2-1 victory.

WORLD CUP FINAL MATCH

Brazil v. Argentina

The two South American neighbors with little love lost between them. The two Barcelona attacking stars (Messi and Neymar) facing off. There will be every reason to watch this match. If it happens, I expect a shootout the likes of which you just don’t see at this level. Brazil’s strong defensive line is shredded by the speed of Messi and Aguero and the crossing of di Maria. Argentina’s weakness in goal is exploited repeatedly by Neymar, Willian, and Hulk. The two sides end 90 minutes tied at 4 goals apiece, but Brazil’s bench depth makes all the difference as a goal early in the second half of extra time by Fernandinho, a player who barely made the 23-man roster, gives Brazil their sixth World Cup title with a 5-4 victory.

2014 NFL Mock Draft or How I Love Teddy Bridgewater When No One Else Seems To

May 2, 2014 / Jason / Leave a comment

The 2013 NFL Draft was a dumpster fire when it came down to high-end talent. The top overall pick, Eric Fisher, was a very inconsistent pass-blocker for the Kansas City Chiefs. You would have to go to Sheldon Richardson at 13 to find the first player who was a consistent performer for his team in 2013.

No one would say that we didn’t see it coming. I barely wrote a mock draft last year. I provided a list that was highly inaccurate with absolutely no analysis. One of the things that makes amateur drafts so interesting is known commodities. Last year’s first round had really none of that. Only 4 offensive skill position players were drafted. The first seven overall picks were offensive or defensive linemen. The Offensive Rookie of the Year was Eddie Lacy, who was picked at the end of the second round (I will say, to toot my own horn, I called him winning ROY).

The 2014 Draft is different in the way that Alabama-style BBQ is different from compressed sawdust. The 2014 Draft is full of questions, intrigue, and stars. It’s likely that at least 4 quarterbacks will be taken in the first round, not to mention at least 5 wide receivers. Oh, and potentially the best pass-rushing prospect in decades. And that doesn’t include a handful of players who I think have potential to become stars at other positions.

You would have been either foolish or a future-predicting gypsy if you had predicted the Houston Texans would have the first pick in this draft. But 2013 was a special kind of disaster in Houston. Injuries, terrible quarterback play, and their head coach suffering a cardiac event during halftime of a game all combined to lead a lock playoff team to the ignominy of having the worst record in the NFL.

But with great ignominy comes great fortune. The 2012 Kansas City Chiefs were terrible and their prize was a right tackle getting burned by speedy D-linemen. The 2013 Houston Texans were terrible and their prize could be a 10-15 year franchise quarterback or a future Hall of Fame pass rusher. Or a sneakily dynamic wide receiver, who just happens to have been college teammates with the Texans first round pick in 2013. Whatever way Houston goes, they really can’t fail, on paper.

As for this mock draft, I always wrestle with the structure. On one hand, I like pretending to be the GM of each team. On the other hand, I’m a competitive contrarian, a dangerous mixture when you’re trying to be right.

This go-round, I’ll try to predict what each team will actually do. There’s going to be some contrarian in there (see: Teddy Bridgewater) based on my strong opinions about how good a player is. As always, I don’t predict trades in the mock, but I will talk a little bit where trades make sense.

1. Houston Texans select Blake Bortles (QB/Central Florida)

This is not the pick I would make. I would take Teddy Bridgewater. I think he’s the most complete of the quarterbacks in this draft and a guy who will be ready to start on Day 1. There are a lot of elements at play with Bridgewater’s fall in stock over the past few months, since his bowl game performance (35-45, 447 Yards, 3 TD against Miami (FL) in the Russell Athletic Bowl). He had a poor performance in his pro-day at Louisville, sure, but I think the bigger issue at play with Teddy Bridgewater is the continued typecasting of black quarterbacks. Bridgewater is 6’2”, so he’s not a “big quarterback.” So scouts can’t make Cam Newton comparisons. He’s also not terribly athletic. He’s a pocket passer with some mobility who, unlike his competitors in this draft, was given great responsibilities at the line of scrimmage to identify defenses and audible when necessary. He was a consistent three-year starter who made a good Louisville program great.

I really enjoy the comparison between Johnny Manziel and Bridgewater. If the dynamic, mobile, 5’11” quarterback was black and the smart (in a football-sense), polished 6’2” quarterback was white, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. There’s a long line of undersized, athletic black quarterbacks who never got a chance in the NFL. There are not a lot of polished 6’2” white quarterbacks who didn’t get their chance.

All of this leaves us with Blake Bortles. Bortles “looks the part” (scout speak for “Big white guy with strong arm”). In his two seasons as a starter at UCF, Bortles took a huge step forward. At the start of the 2013 season, you wouldn’t have found a mock draft with Bortles’ name on it. He was a good quarterback in 2012, but did nothing dynamic, accumulating zero 300-yard passing games. In 2013, he had 5, including 301 in his BCS bowl win over Baylor.

It is thought that Bortles has the greatest set of tools now and the most room to develop and I think Houston will go in that direction, rather than taking what I think is the safe bet with Bridgewater or the big risk/big reward with John Football.

Nearly every mock draft you’ll see will have Jadeveon Clowney here. I don’t think that makes a lot of sense. I’ll get to that in a moment.

2. St. Louis Rams select Greg Robinson (OT/Auburn)

In a perfect world for the St. Louis Rams, they trade down towards the bottom of the Top 10 to select the big, physical wide receiver they so desperately need. When I see them connected to Clemson wideout Sammy Watkins, I don’t necessarily see the point. Watkins is a top-level talent and someone worthy of the top pick in this star-studded draft. But the Rams drafted a speedy receiver last year in Tavon Austin. Watkins is bigger than Austin, but isn’t the sort of presence that Texas A&M’s Mike Evans is. Evans would be a great addition to this offense.

In the world of this mock draft where I don’t predict trades, the Rams end up with Greg Robinson to try, once again, to strengthen their offensive line. It feels like the Rams are always drafting offensive tackles. Baylor’s Jason Smith was the Rams’ first round pick in 2009 (with the second pick, no less). Smith was never able to hold down either end of the line and is now a bit of a journeyman. Recent second round pick Rodger Saffold has done a good job playing the left tackle position for the Rams.

Robinson would give St. Louis the ability to slide Saffold over to the right side of the line. His performance at the NFL Combine garnered rave reviews as did his redshirt sophomore season with the Tigers, where he earned All-SEC honors, despite being on no one’s radar at the start of the year, much like Bortles. He’s a big, 330 pound tackle with unrivaled quickness for his size. That’s the perfect prescription for a team that has had a very difficult time keeping their franchise quarterback upright during his young career.

The Rams have an additional pick in the first round (their own) as this pick is the final piece of compensation from the Washington Football Team, who traded away their future for a quarterback with some minor knee issues.

For what it’s worth, if Washington was picking here and Clowney was available, he’d be their pick. If he was gone, Khalil Mack would be a nice fall-back option for Washington. Alas, RG3.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars select Teddy Bridgewater (QB/Louisville)

This is a pick that really has to come down to the best available quarterback on the Jaguars board between Bortles, Bridgewater, and John Football.

Popular belief is that the Jaguars need to do something flashy and exciting to put people in the seats at Whatever It’s Called Today Stadium. But flashy has really never been the Jaguars modus operandi.

Offensive tackle is another area of weakness for the Jaguars, but they used their second overall pick last year on Luke Joeckel. I cannot see a circumstance where they would draft another offensive tackle from Texas A&M with a top 3 pick the following year.

Jacksonville is a team with a crushing list of needs. Manziel might bring extra attention to the Jaguars’ offseason workouts, but Bridgewater will provide the steady leadership they’ve lacked since David Garrard’s health declined. Plus, Bridgewater would be playing in a warm weather city, in his home state.

Look, I recognize based on all of the prospect lists and rankings and mocks that Bridgewater’s stock has plummeted. I can’t say just how stupid this is, because I can’t say enough good things about Bridgewater. I watched him a lot in college. If he’s not a top level QB in the NFL in 3 years, I’ll stop writing my silly little blog.

4. Cleveland Browns select Johnny Manziel (QB/Texas A&M)

The list of quarterbacks currently on the Browns roster: Brian Hoyer (recovering from a torn ACL), Alex Tanney (2012 undrafted free agent out of Monmouth College of Illinois). If the Browns don’t draft one of the three top QBs with this pick, assume that Kevin Costner is at the helm on draft day and he’s busy yelling at Jennifer Garner. MOVIES! (NOTE: The Browns have since signed Vince Young and Tyler Thigpen, which should change this pick roughly 0%)

Manziel was an electric college football quarterback. I’m far from convinced that he’s going to be a star in any system in the NFL. In the right system, with the right coach (San Francisco, Seattle…you know, teams that don’t need QBs) his game will translate well, because good coaches adapt.

The one real advantage for the Browns in drafting Manziel is that it will get Browns fans excited about football for the first time in the history of man and could create a really fascinating QB/WR combo with Josh Gordon. Manziel will probably need to be ready to start on Game 1. He surely won’t be lacking in confidence. We’ll see what happens from there.

5. Oakland Raiders select Sammy Watkins (WR/Clemson)

Much like with the New York Yankees, there’s this weird thing that the Raiders front office does where every move seems calculated to keep happy the ghost of their deceased owner.

Well, Al Davis would love Sammy Watkins, assuming that he had his glasses on. Watkins is a burner, with some size. The Raiders drafted Darrius Heyward-Bey with a top-10 pick to fill the role that Watkins was born to do. Heyward-Bey didn’t work out because he wasn’t a precise route runner or catcher of the football. Watkins has great hands and at this point in his career is a much more polished route runner than Heyward-Bey is right now.

But let’s be real, with Sammy Watkins, it’s about the speed. He will give the Raiders the downfield threat they’ve coveted for over a decade. Now we just have to see if Matt Schaub can get the ball to him.

6. Atlanta Falcons select Jadeveon Clowney (DE/South Carolina)

This seems rather unrealistic, that Clowney, the consensus top player in this draft would fall out of the Top 5, but tell me what team in the top 5 really needs a pass rusher above their projected pick. There’s plenty of talk about the Tom Savages, Derek Carrs, and Jimmy Garoppolos of the world, yes. And any of the above quarterback hungry teams could wait. But why would they wait? Cleveland and Jacksonville have been looking for a franchise quarterback for a long time and Houston is not that many pieces away from being competitive again. Why draft a project? Why draft a guy like Savage who played at three different colleges? Why draft a guy who played at Eastern Illinois? Why draft David Carr’s brother?

To reiterate on who is going to take Clowney: Is it Houston with Case Keenum, having already gone the route of drafting a pass rusher with the top overall pick in a star-heavy draft (Mario Williams)? St. Louis with one of the best pass rushing tandems in the NFL in Robert Quinn and Chris Long? Jacksonville with Chad Henne as their starting quarterback? Cleveland with one of the league’s best defenses and ½ a quarterback on their roster (with the additions of Young and Thigpen, 1 ½ and I’m talking about Tyler Thigpen) and an agitated fan base? Oakland with zero weapons at the receiver position?

Atlanta makes the most sense as Clowney’s landing spot. Offensive tackle might be a bigger need right now, but Atlanta can afford to not address that need with this pick in a way that the teams above them cannot. Atlanta has had a problem getting to the opposing quarterback for quite some time. Clowney should come in motivated, essentially playing in his own backyard (about 230 miles from his hometown of Rock Hill, SC). And if he needs more motivation, Drew Brees and Cam Newton will be waiting for him.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Jake Matthews (OT/Texas A&M)

Tampa is the wildest of cards so far, even wilder than Jacksonville. I would have thought that Tampa was happy with Mike Glennon, their third round pick last year, who performed fairly well in his time as the Bucs starting quarterback. Then Tampa brought in free agent veteran Josh McCown, who is expected to compete for the starting job. But Tampa is still interviewing quarterbacks. Maybe they’re just doing their due diligence (even New England brought in John Football). But it all seems a little weird.

Before Tampa tries to plug in a 36 year old quarterback to lead them to the promised land, they need someone to protect his blind-side. Matthews is that guy to me. He’s 1A to Greg Robinson’s 1 at the tackle position and would be the smart, if also unsexy pick, for the very confusing Buccaneers.

8. Minnesota Vikings select Khalil Mack (OLB/Buffalo)

Outside linebacker is far from a need for the Vikings, but their biggest needs (quarterback and interior offensive linemen) can’t really be satisfied here (I am not this high on Fresno State QB Derek Carr, who you’ll see slotted to Minnesota in many mock drafts).

Mack is a huge value at 8. The experts have him slotted in as a Top 5 player in this draft.

Let’s be real here, I’ve never seen him play because he went to the University of Buffalo. You’ve probably never seen him play either. But his size and combine numbers look really impressive. So I’ll just assume that he won’t be Aaron Curry Version 2.0.

9. Buffalo Bills select Taylor Lewan (OT/Michigan)

Buffalo is a team that would really love to have a player like Mack fall to them, but it’s highly unlikely that happens (what’s most likely is someone trades up from the teens to select Mack if he falls past Cleveland).

Much like with Minnesota and Derek Carr, Buffalo consistently gets slotted with Mike Evans, Texas A&M’s big, physical, one-year wonder wide receiver. This is another example of a really good prospect coming in to a situation where he can’t be of maximum assistance. Oakland has a mostly proven quarterback in Matt Schaub and a real need for a down-field playmaker. St. Louis is probably one offensive tackle and a quality receiver away from serious playoff contention.

Mike Evans would not make Buffalo a playoff team, especially with Robert Woods and Steve Johnson already at the receiver position. If you look at the NFL as a pyramid of building blocks, tackles are the base of that pyramid with quarterbacks. Wideouts are somewhere in the middle.

Lewan is a very big, very physical tackle. His arrival would mean that Cordy Glenn would likely need to move over to right tackle full-time. The combination of Lewan and Glenn would give Buffalo a St. Louis-like situation where their offensive line would finally be sured up, giving last year’s first round pick EJ Manuel every chance he needs to succeed, which if you read last year’s mock draft, you know I don’t think he will.

10. Detroit Lions select Darqueze Dennard (CB/Michigan State)

Detroit is in a great position to get a real player of need. For as long as I can remember, Detroit has struggled to stop other teams’ passing offenses. This is an unfortunate circumstance because they play the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears twice a year and, outside of that, play in a league that is fixated on passing attacks. The Lions have essentially been a farmer with no scarecrow (agriculture references in mock drafts are the new black).

This pick should come down to whether they like Dennard or Oklahoma State’s Justin Gilbert more. Gilbert is a good corner, but Dennard is the clear best corner, to me. His size and style remind me of Darrelle Revis. He’s a true man-corner (that is, he’s the kind of corner who can line up in single coverage against someone’s best receiver and keep him in check). I was very impressed with Dennard each time I watched Michigan State this season because I rarely heard his name spoken. Those are the best cornerbacks. If you’re not getting beat and they’re not throwing it in your direction, you’re doing your job well. Dennard does his very well.

11. Tennessee Titans select Justin Gilbert (CB/Oklahoma State)

Tennessee lost Alterraun Verner in the offseason. You’ve probably never heard of Alterraun Verner, but that’s because he’s a good cornerback.

Tennessee is a team that has a lot of needs and would be very wise to try and shop this pick to a team with multiple picks in the first and second round.

Tossing that idea aside though, Gilbert fills an immediate need for the Titans. Gilbert is not small at 6’0” but possesses very top-end speed and could also return kicks for the Titans.

12. New York Giants select CJ Mosley (ILB/Alabama)

The Giants are in a similar position to the Titans. Lots of little cracks that need to be filled with limited caulk.

2013 was a mess for the Giants, who could not protect Eli Manning, who himself could not stop throwing interceptions. They lost Hakeem Nicks, so Mike Evans could be of great interest here, but this is a team that won Super Bowls because of defense and I think they go that route here.

Mosley fills one of the needs for the Giants, that of a true ILB, tackling machine. This is and has been a position of need for the Giants for a long time.

13. St. Louis Rams select Mike Evans (WR/Texas A&M)

Remember back at the second pick when I said, “Evans would be a great addition to this offense?”

Look, I didn’t have it work out this way on purpose (because really, why would I have any interest in the Rams’ success other than picking them to go to the Super Bowl next season?). But if the real life chips fall this way for the Rams, they’ll be the clear winners on Day 1. Getting a potential franchise left tackle in Robinson and the type of big, strong, physical receiver that Evans is would be a huge boon to an offense that is a step and a half behind its defense. Pairing Evans with Kenny Britt and putting Tavon Austin in the slot will give Sam Bradford the weapons he hasn’t had since his days at Oklahoma and could vault the Rams past San Francisco in the NFC West race.

14. Chicago Bears select Calvin Pryor (S/Louisville)

It’s a guarantee that at least one Louisville Cardinal will be drafted in the first round, and I’m willing to be that there will actually be two.

In a division built on passing the football, Chicago desperately needs an intimidator in the secondary and that is Calvin Pryor, who is riding a solid performance at the Combine in Indianapolis up draft boards.

Unlike Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, Pryor doesn’t really have the ability to cover receivers. But unlike Clinton-Dix, Pryor does have the ability and the want-to to break receivers in pieces. There’s a young Ed Reed quality to Pryor that should be too much for the Bears to pass up on.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers select Kyle Fuller (CB/Virginia Tech)

This is the first pick in the draft where I’ve had a great deal of trouble deciding which way I think a team will go.

If Darqueze Dennard is available, he’s the smart pick. If Mike Evans falls here, he’s probably the second smartest pick. But with neither available and all of the elite OTs gone, Pittsburgh is left floating in the ether that is the middle of this draft.

Wide Receiver makes sense, but unless they reached for Kelvin Benjamin, Pittsburgh would be drafting a guy similar in size and style to Antonio Brown (Odell Beckham Jr, Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee). And I don’t think that makes Pittsburgh better.

Fuller fills a need for them. I think he’s a slight reach here, but not as much as Benjamin would be (though I like Benjamin as a pro prospect). Fuller is a physical corner, more in the style of Dennard than Gilbert.

16. Dallas Cowboys select Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S/Alabama)

Clinton-Dix would be a dream for the Cowboys, as they’ve lacked the kind of presence that Clinton-Dix will bring to the safety position for some time now.

Dallas is a team with a number of problems on the defensive side of the ball, and if Clinton-Dix is gone, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them take DT Aaron Donald if he’s still on the board in real life.

17. Baltimore Ravens select Zack Martin (OT/Notre Dame)

We are firmly in the boring territory of this mock draft, though I think there could be some real excitement on draft night in this section of the draft, as QB hungry teams look to move up for Derek Carr, Tom Savage, Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc. Or Bridgewater/Manziel if they’re still around. And don’t forget that Eric Ebron is still out there at tight end and could be a huge difference maker in a team’s offense.

Martin, as a potential RT, is the logical pick for Baltimore, as they have many questions on the offensive line, outside of Eugene Monroe at LT.

18. New York Jets select Eric Ebron (TE/North Carolina)

The Jets need playmakers. The list of available WRs (see Pittsburgh) are all potential playmakers. But Ebron is a difference-making playmaker.

Ebron is not being drafted here because of his ability to block. He’s not that TE. He’s in the Jimmy Graham/Rob Gronkowski mold. He’s big. He’s fast. He’s got great hands. Given the choice between the 5’9”-6’0” WRs and a Jimmy Graham-type TE, well, why would the Jets pass here?

19. Miami Dolphins select Morgan Moses (OT/Virginia)

The Dolphins need a RT and Moses is one of those. Of the available OTs, Moses makes the most sense because of his ability to play on the right side. I’m sorry that I’m boring you right now with my horrible, redundant analysis. .

20. Arizona Cardinals select Derek Carr (QB/Fresno State)

I’m not terribly thrilled about this selection, but this is another team with needs similar to all of the teams above them (secondary help/OGs,). Arizona also has a glaring need at QB, as Carson Palmer is 34 and not getting younger.

Carr is not my favorite QB in this draft. He’s far from it. I find him to be robotic in the pocket. I also have to think that in a league prone to groupthink, maybe teams won’t be so excited to draft David Carr’s brother. But I’ve seen him go in some mock drafts before Manziel, Bortles, and Bridgewater. So what do I know? Nothing.

21. Green Bay Packers select Aaron Donald (DT/Pittsburgh)

Contrary to what you’d think, the Packers are full of holes (there’s a really great cheese metaphor in there).

The Packers could go WR or DL here, as both positions are not terribly deep. BJ Raji is already there at DT, but BJ Raji is also not an every-down DT. Donald is too valuable to pass up here, even if he’s not a schematically perfect fit for Green Bay. You find a way to make it work when you’re as desperate as they are for impact guys on the defensive line.

22. Philadelphia Eagles select Odell Beckham Jr. (WR/LSU)

I don’t want to call Beckham Jr. the poor man’s Desean Jackson, but if he was a tick faster, he’d be Desean Jackson. Beckham ran a 4.43 at the combine and returned kicks and punts at LSU. Paired with Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper, he gives Nick Foles and the Eagles a very desirable offense, even without the real Desean Jackson.

23. Kansas City Chiefs select Cody Latimer (WR/Indiana)

Much like Green Bay, this is a team with a good 2013 record who enters the draft process with a lot of holes. Kansas City’s biggest hole is probably their lack of a dynamism on offense. Latimer gives them a 6’2” receiver with speed to pair with Dwayne Bowe.

And, to boot, scouts think he’s a good fit for a West Coast system, which happens to be the exact thing that the Chiefs do on offense, when they’re actually doing something on offense, because the West Coast system is outdated and needs to be junked at this point.

24. Cincinnati Bengals select Bradley Roby (CB/Ohio State)

The run on WRs takes a brief hiatus because if there’s one thing Cincinnati doesn’t need, it’s wideouts.

Roby comes with some criminal baggage, but also comes with a lot of talent. Roby isn’t going to be the guy going man-to-man with AJ Green in practice, because that’s not who he is. He’s a solid complementary corner, better suited to covering faster, smaller receivers. In a division with Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown, and, well, let’s just pass on the Cleveland Browns for now because Josh Gordon is a terrible matchup for Roby, Roby is an asset. And with some aging depth already at the position, the Bengals can develop Roby in 2014.

25. San Diego Chargers select Marqise Lee (WR/USC)

Keenan Allen was a revelation for the Chargers last season, but he was also the only really productive receiver in their offense. Adding Lee gives the Chargers two guys who are matchup problems for most defenses with their ability to make plays after the catch.

San Diego is a team that would love to add a cornerback in this slot, but we’ve essentially run out of those with only Jason Verrett from TCU on the board worth a look in this round. Lee is a nice value pick at this slot, as would be Brandin Cooks from Oregon State.

26. Cleveland Browns select Brandin Cooks (WR/Oregon State)

Someone is going to need to help Josh Gordon at the wideout position and Cooks is a great compliment to Gordon’s size and strength, with his speed and hands. Cooks possesses world-class speed, running a 4.33 at the Combine and frequently turned routine passes from Sean Mannion into stat-building passes for Sean Mannion in college.

Paired with Josh Gordon and Johnny Manziel, the Browns would develop the kind of dynamic offense that, combined with their really good defense, could be a serious playoff contender sooner rather than later.

Or, you know, they could go and screw the whole thing up by drafting Sammy Watkins and hoping that one of this draft’s elite QBs falls to them, ultimately ending up with Tom Savage.

27. New Orleans Saints select Anthony Barr (OLB/UCLA)

There was a time, oh so many months ago, when Barr was considered a top-five pick in this draft, before anyone had ever heard of Khalil Mack.

Barr is a terrific blitzing linebacker with top-end speed for his position. His fall is more due to a lack of need above at the linebacker position than anything else. I think Barr is a top-ten talent guy and a huge steal for the Saints at 27.

28. Carolina Panthers select Cyrus Kouandjio (OT/Alabama)

The biggest question for Kouandjio is his durability right now. He’s big and, at times, very physical. There’s question as to whether he can stay at left tackle, but as a developmental project with huge upside, he’s a good value for Carolina.

Wide receiver is of course, another area of need for Carolina, but that position is fairly deep in this draft and I’d expect them to draft a Davante Adams or Jordan Matthews in the second round, possibly even moving up to do so.

29. New England Patriots select Ra’Shede Hageman (DT/Minnesota)

The word with Hageman that I’ve seen in every scouting report I’ve read about him is “raw.” The other words are “tremendous upside.” Hageman will not be a plug-and-play tackle on Day 1 of the season. He’s going to take some time, but could develop into the kind of disruptive force in both run and pass defense that you’d expect out of a top 5 pick. Or he could flame out and continue in a growing line of New England draft failures. It’s probably one or the other.

30. San Francisco 49ers select Stephon Tuitt (DE/Notre Dame)

Tuitt is the kind of versatile defensive lineman that a team with San Francisco’s depth could really use and given the questions about a certain edge rushing linebacker, could be the pass rushing addition that they need, albeit at a different position than Aldon Smith.

Tuitt is very big for his position but plays quick and physically. He’s considered more of a second round player, but he looks to be a great fit for the 49ers.

31. Denver Broncos select Ryan Shazier (OLB/Ohio State)

In case you had forgotten, Denver signed every free agent during this offseason, hoping to make up the point differential from February’s Super Bowl massacre. Shazier gives the Broncos their edge rushing linebacker of the future for when the newly signed DeMarcus Ware’s body gives in.

32. Seattle Seahawks select Kelvin Benjamin (WR/Florida State)

The Seahawks don’t really need a lot right now, but after losing Golden Tate in free agency and with questions about Percy Harvin’s durability, a receiver with Benjamin’s size and wingspan is a huge get here. Speed at the WR position is not necessarily a problem for the ‘Hawks, and that’s good because Benjamin doesn’t have any. What he does have is a 6’5” frame more similar to a TE, with the athleticism to go up and get whatever is thrown in his direction. And he showed growth each season at Florida State. Benjamin could develop into a top-end WR for the Seahawks with some development and patience.

Hey, it’s the end of the first round. If you just read all 5,000 of those words, thank you. If you didn’t, I don’t blame you in the least bit. One more feature that I always enjoy doing is my late round (4th round or later, generally) sleeper guys at positions of interest. So we’ll end with that. Enjoy the draft. If you have any comments or haterade to throw my way, find me on Twitter @darrenrovell.

QB: Aaron Murray (Georgia): Murray doesn’t possess ideal size and is coming off of a torn ACL, but he’s a four year starter with solid instincts and leadership ability. I don’t envision him being a star, certainly, but I do think he’d be an excellent backup for a long time, similar in role to someone like Matt Hasselbeck.

RB: Lache Seastrunk (Baylor): Speed, speed, speed, and more speed. A really interesting prospect and a great change of pace back for a team with a big physical primary back.

WR: Kevin Norwood (Alabama): Great work ethic and a solid possession receiver. He’s not going to break many tackles in the NFL, but he runs solid routes and catches the ball. There has to be room for guys like that in this league.

DE: Michael Sam (Missouri): I like productive defensive players, even if they’re undersized and/or gay. Neither of those things bother me in the least. Sam was as productive as it got in the SEC and has the motor to succeed. He reminds me a lot of Elvis Dumervil coming out of Louisville in 2006. Elvis was a very productive pass rusher in college, but was picked in the 4th round because of questions about his size and where he could fit in the NFL. Sam is the same weight and three inches taller than Elvis, who is a 3-time Pro Bowler and the NFL’s leader in sacks in 2009.

CB: Pierre Desir (Lindenwood University): Everyone’s pick at this position, Desir played at an MIAA school, currently transitioning to NCAA Division II. That said, he showed well during the draft process and possesses elite ball skills and size for the position. He might end up going much higher than the fourth round if just one team really did their homework and thinks his game can transition. Because the measurables aren’t the question. Just the talent level faced in college.

S: Jonathan Dowling (Western Kentucky): An absolutely head-case of a player, who was dismissed from Florida in 2010. As a safety, he can cover like a corner due to great ball skills. If I’m a team like New England or Seattle drafting in the seventh round, I happily take a flier on Dowling, who I expect no other team will even approach in this draft not because of his measurable talent on the field, but because he’s going to need a lot of babysitting.

2014 American League Preview (And World Series Prediction)

March 29, 2014 / Jason / Leave a comment

Did you miss the 2014 NL Preview? Well, I’m not here to point you in the right direction. Your loss.

AL EAST

1. New York Yankees

Last Season: The New York Yankees, the team of Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, and Shane Spencer finished in FOURTH PLACE (!!!) in the AL East. It was a disastrous season, capped off by their biggest rival, the Boston Red Sox, winning the World Series. But if we have some perspective, the Yankees did finish 3 games above .500 and did play in the best division in baseball.

The Offseason: Nothing really. Except for signing Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Brian Roberts, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Japanese sensation Masahiro Tanaka. Other than that, not much.

Potential Breakout Player: The history of Japanese pitchers going directly to New York City is not one rife with great success. Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa set the tone and it’s a rather dull, whining tone. Not pleasant to listen to. I don’t think Masahiro Tanaka will be like that. I expect something much closer to Yu Darvish than Kei Igawa. Tanaka seemed to adjust well during the Spring and has a pitching repertoire more close to that of a number two starter (he’ll start the season as the Yankees number 4). It’ll also probably be helpful for him to have Hiroki Kuroda and resident weirdo Ichiro Suzuki in town to take some of the pressure of the Japanese media off of him. He’s a name we all know, but I expect him to be a contender for Rookie of the Year, which he shouldn’t be eligible for, but I digress.

Additional Comment: You can make a very good argument that the Yankees would be better off with light-hitting, swift-fielding Brendan Ryan at shortstop for the bulk of the season, rather than Derek Jeter, who at this point is both light-hitting and light-fielding. Obviously, in Jeter’s last season, that’s not going to happen. The Yankees are not going to be dominant up the middle, certainly. But there’s some depth there. Kelly Johnson, Jeter, Ryan, and Eduardo Nunez are the weakest part of this team. That’s not too bad, really. If you take what the Yankees did this offseason piece-by-piece, it’s all sort of confusing and weird. It almost reeked of desperation. But when you look at the whole, you’ve got something really impressive. An outfield built on speed (assuming Carlos Beltran is the DH), and two left-handed hitters (I know Beltran is a switch hitter, but he’s far superior from the left side of the plate) taking advantage of a short porch. Losing Robinson Cano seemed like a disaster at the time, but this looks like a team that was put together with a plan to win this year. And I think they will.

At Seasons End…: All will be right with the world and the Yankees will have won the AL East and Derek Jeter will be celebrated as one of the world’s great leaders, etc.

2. Tampa Bay Rays

Last Season: The Rays won the AL play-in game, before falling to the Red Sox in the Wild Card round.

The Offseason: They brought back James Loney and David DeJesus, brought in Ryan Hanigan, and brought back (after a stay in Oakland) closer Grant Balfour. Nothing they did was very sexy, but it was all very Rays-y. That is to say, it will probably work out.

Potential Breakout Player: Last year, it was Wil Myers. This year, I expect it to be Chris Archer. Archer had a very solid rookie season last year. He was 9-7 with a 118 ERA+, and a 1.12 WHIP, all great numbers for an at-the-time 24 year old rookie. And I’m surprised he didn’t get more publicity. I expect him to only get better, especially in the strikeout department.

Additional Comment: I am, of course, partial to the Washington Nationals’ rotation. And I acknowledge that any rotation with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is very good no matter who is filling out the other two slots. The same can be said for the team with Justin “Upton” Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, (I’m jealous. Deal with it.) and Max Scherzer. But Tampa Bay belongs in that conversation as well. Tampa is a team that could legitimately trade David Price and not necessarily skip too many beats. Currently, Jeremy Hellickson, coming off of a terrible season, is the odd man out. Hellickson, even coming off of the season he is, would be in about 15 other teams’ starting rotations. The Rays arms are young and dynamic. And the offense isn’t bad either, with Myers, Evan Longoria, and Ben Zobrist.

At Seasons End…: The Rays will be back in the play-in game and certainly in the hunt for a World Series. Just like they’ve always been (at least it seems that way now).

3. Toronto Blue Jays

Last Season: The Blue Jays were a dominant team from start to finish. I am, of course, talking about the sportswriter prognosticator season. They were, in fact, terrible, in the regular season. Injury plagued and underperforming, the Blue Jays were 2013’s biggest disappointment…

The Offseason: …so they did nothing!

Potential Breakout Player: Maybe I’m just really high on his great Spring Training and the fact that he’s got a wealth of talent, but after two full seasons in the Majors, I think Brett Lawrie is primed for a breakout this season. It’s hard for any player playing in Toronto to catch on nationally, and Lawrie isn’t exactly a sweet, humble guy with a cute media narrative, but I think he’s a name you’ll be hearing more of this season. And for good reasons, finally.

Additional Comment: As difficult as it will be for me, I’m not going to devote this entire section to Colby Rasmus, who I really, really like, even though he’s this generation’s great underachiever in many people’s eyes. The Blue Jays in third place is part me still feeling the after-effects of last Spring’s contact high I caught and part me looking at a roster with Melky Cabrera and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind and Jose Reyes and thinking, “that team is going to hit.” Can they pitch? It all falls on RA Dickey to me. The rest of the rotation is just a giant injury concern. I get that. But this offense, if healthy, has the potential to be historically good. It’s a big “if” but I’m willing to jump out on a limb because roughly 100 people in the world will read this post.

At Seasons End…: The Blue Jays will just miss the playoffs, finishing close to .500 due largely to their lack of starting pitching depth.

4. Baltimore Orioles

Last Season: The Orioles proved the doubters (me) wrong by finishing 3 games above .500, tied with the Yankees, but mourning an injury to their star player, Manny Machado.

The Offseason: They signed Grant Balfour to be their closer, which is interesting because if you’re paying attention, you’ll remember that the Rays did too. And, look, cloning Grant Balfour would be great because you’d get to hear double the f-words between pitches. And who doesn’t love f-words? At least the one that ends in some variation of “uck.” The other one, the homophobic one that slimey trolls use on the internet is a terrible word that should never be used. Anywho, the Orioles signed Balfour, got cold feet, gave him a physical that he magically failed, and watched as a division rival signed him. In addition to that debacle, the Orioles signed Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. They both passed their physicals.

Potential Breakout Player: This seems like a “Not Applicable” situation, as I’ve spent the last two seasons watching Steve Lombardozzi and, well….yeah.

Additional Comment: I don’t hate their rotation, but they paid the Ubaldo Jimenez from the second half of last season and not the Ubaldo Jimenez who actually exists in this world. Ubaldo Jimenez is a guy who averages four walks per 9 innings for his career. His lowest single-season WHIP is a 1.15, which appears to be an outlier given his career WHIP of 1.34. There is really no evidence to indicate that Ubaldo Jimenez should be given a four year contract where he is paid $13 million per season. But this is the reality of baseball free agency in 2014.

5. Boston Red Sox

Last Season: They won the World Series.

The Offseason: They lost their leadoff hitter to their biggest rival and their starting catcher to the Marlins. They replaced them with Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski. Oh, and they added Edward Mujica to their bullpen.

Potential Breakout Player: There’s a sarcastic jerk in me (who’d have guessed?) that wants to pick the team of doctors who will keep Grady Sizemore in one piece (named this morning as the Sox’ Opening Day starter in centerfield). Instead I’ll go with Allen Webster, who came over from the Dodgers in the Great Salary Dump of 2012 and was an abject disaster in limited Major League work last season. He continued to be an abject disaster in Spring Training, but my options for a breakout player with this team are fairly limited to him and Jackie Bradley Jr. who just lost a competition to be the team’s starting centerfielder to a 31 year old who hasn’t played 100 games in a season since 2009 and hasn’t played at all since 2011. So there’s that. (Xander Bogaerts doesn’t count as he’s already broken out in my book.)

Additional Comment: To look at the 2014 Boston Red Sox and think, “That’s a team that could repeat as champions” you either have to be 1.) Drunk or 2.) A Bostonian (and no, I’m not taking the easy joke bait that I just dropped into the blog pond). Really, there’s nothing about this team that says, “champion” or “playoff contender” or “good.” The middle of the lineup, with Pedroia, Ortiz, and Napoli is really only as good as the table-setter(s). That’s generally the case for any 2-3-4 hitter. Who is that table-setter here? Sizemore? Shane Victorino? Maybe it’s Will Middlebrooks and his career .294 on-base percentage? I don’t think there’s nearly enough balance in this lineup to make up for what is a really shaky rotation. Clay Buchholz doesn’t appear able to pitch more than 5 innings at a time. Felix Doubront is a “written in ink” starter despite being, well, Felix Doubront. Jake Peavy didn’t get younger this offseason. Jon Lester is like Ubaldo Jimenez from the left-side (no, really, take a look at his numbers). And if you’re going to look at John Lackey’s 2013 and think that’s what you’re going to get from him, take a look at those career numbers and tell me he’s not due for a precipitous fall back to Yawkey Way.

At Seasons End…: The city and fanbase that loves narratives more than anyone else won’t really have one. They’ll have a sub-.500 baseball team, they’ll want John Farrell fired and replaced by Bobby Valentine (okay, maybe not Bobby Valentine), their aging roster will be a year older, and all of the goodwill and duck boats and silly Jonny Gomes antics will be gone. I’m not saying they’ll be closer to the 2012 Red Sox. This is still a 76-win team in a really tough division, but they’ll be a far cry from last year’s narrative-driven run to the World Series of Narratives.

AL CENTRAL

1. Detroit Tigers

Last Season: By the hair of their chins, the Tigers won the AL Central, allowing them to avoid playing in the MLB Pay Attention To Us Play-In Game. They won their Wild Card series over Oakland, before ultimately succumbing to the Red Sox in the ALCS.

The Offseason: The Tigers had a rather interesting offseason. First, they traded Prince Fielder and his enormous contract to the Texas Rangers for their malcontent, whiny, overpaid second baseman Ian Kinsler. Then, a few weeks later, they traded their number 3 starter, Doug Fister, for a utility infielder (Steve Lombardozzi), lefty reliever Ian Krol, and middle-of-the-road prospect Robbie Ray. Then, earlier this week, they traded Lombardozzi for the aged Alex Gonzalez, who they intend to play at shortstop even though he played first base last year for the Milwaukee Brewers. Oh, and I almost forgot they signed Joe Nathan to close out games. It was a busy offseason in Detroit, unlike elsewhere in the AL Central.

Potential Breakout Player: Nick Castellanos finally gets the opportunity to play full-time in the Majors, now that Miguel Cabrera has moved across the diamond. Castellanos has long been the Tigers prized prospect, one they prized so much they attempted to move him to a corner outfield spot just to get him some playing time. Lost in the Fielder trade and the money saved was the benefit of giving a player of Castellanos’ skill and potential his shot.

Additional Comment: The Tigers are far from a perfect team. There are question marks in left field and shortstop, certainly. And we can all sit around and wait for Rick Porcello to develop into the stud pitcher we expected, or we could go out and get some delicious burgers. Verlander, Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez are a lethal 1-2-3, especially considering the other 4 rotations in this division, all of whom would take any of those three and instantly make them their ace. But Detroit is not a perfect team. That said, this division, much like the NL Central and NL West and NL East should be a runaway. The gap between the Tigers and the Royals is large, at least in terms of elite talent.

At Seasons End…: The Tigers will have coasted into the playoffs, again. And if there’s a fourth starter they can rely on (Porcello or Drew Smyly) they might get back to the World Series. Without that though, I think they come up just short.

2. Kansas City Royals

Last Season: 2013 had to be a joy for Royals fans. The team didn’t make the playoffs but they finished with a better record than the New York Yankees. That had to be incredibly satisfying.

The Offseason: Omar Infante and Jason Vargas. That’s the list and that’s as much time as we’re going to spend on that.

Potential Breakout Player: There probably aren’t enough words to describe how excited I am to watch Yordano Ventura pitch. Ventura’s spring, against very good talent, was absurdly good (1.77 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, 0 HR allowed (in the Cactus League!). I could go on, but I’m focusing too much on Spring Training. Ventura possesses the sort of fastball that makes Joel Zumaya blush. Ventura also possesses a potentially solid curveball and a changeup. He won a rotation spot fairly early on and for obvious reason. He’s not a conventional starting pitcher by any stretch (he’s under 6’0”). That said, he’s my pick for American League Rookie of the Year.

Additional Comment: I remain very high on the Royals. The minor league system is brimming with talent, starting with 18 year old shortstop Raul Mondesi Jr. and running through a list that includes pitcher Kyle Zimmer, shortstop Christian Colon, and centerfielder Bubba Starling (who I’m not going to give up on). And the Major League team is very good offensively. Alex Gordon is everything I want in a baseball player. Eric Hosmer is coming off a season that saw him start to realize his great potential. Billy Butler is just a consistent hitter (in the nicest way possible). Mike Moustakas struggled last season, but still adds a great deal of pop, and when healthy, Salvador Perez is one of the best hidden secrets in baseball behind the plate. What keeps the Royals at a distance from the Tigers is rotational depth. Put it this way, as excited as I am for Yordano Ventura, he’s a risky gamble to be your number two option.

At Seasons End…: The Royals will more-or-less be in the same place as they were last year at season’s end. But the barometer is pointing straight up for this team. The addition of Kyle Zimmer and a quality free agent starter might have this team in the hunt for a pennant in 2014.

3. Cleveland Indians

Last Season: Terry Francona did as Terry Francona does; he took over a struggling team and got them to the play(in game)offs. And not even a good team.

The Offseason: The only thing of real interest is that the Indians decided, in order to give Yan Gomes more playing time, to move Carlos Santana from behind the plate to third base, which is a transition that always works well whenever any team tries it (which is never).

Potential Breakout Player: Danny Salazar performed well in limited time last season, keeping his ERA below 3.20, and producing a quality K/BB ratio for a 23 year old. He was so good, the Indians started him in their play-in game.

Additional Comment: I don’t have much to add really. I think the Indians are a subpar baseball team that overperformed last season. An injury (who’dda guessed?) to Michael Bourn won’t help the team’s ability to produce runs. The lineup is okay. Jason Kipnis is a nice piece, if not an entirely inconsistent one and Carlos Santana is a very good hitter who will be badly miscast as a third baseman. The pitching isn’t great. Justin Masterson appears to have turned some corner and while he’s not a true staff ace, he’s a good pitcher. But outside of him and Salazar, this team lacks the depth to be a true contender. Even with Tito.

At Seasons End…: Indians fans will be that much closer to watching super-prospect Francisco Lindor play shortstop every single day. And that will be a joy. This season won’t be. I’d say they’ll be a few games under .500 but never really in any hunt.

4. Chicago White Sox

Last Season: As bad as the Cubs were, the White Sox were worse. And unlike the Cubs, they had one of the worst minor league systems in baseball.

The Offseason: They didn’t get any closer to winning in 2014, but they took a couple of nice strides towards improving their future, thanks to the generosity of Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers. The White Sox sent out closer Addison Reed and ended up with their future centerfielder in Adam Eaton and, at the very worst, a good stopgap solution at third base in Matt Davidson.

Potential Breakout Player: Like with a lot of what the Diamondbacks do, I didn’t understand trading Adam Eaton. He’s a really nice addition to a team that doesn’t seem terribly keen on guys who get on-base. Eaton does and plays a very good defensive centerfield. He’ll get hardly any notice on the South Side this year because the White Sox will be so bad, but he’s one for the future.

Additional Comment: Outside of Chris Sale, who is very good, even though his arm will one day snap into pieces, the White Sox rotation is an absolute mess and the bullpen isn’t really much better. Nor is their offense. Let’s save some time, shall we?

At Seasons End…: Let’s just say, it won’t be pretty in Chicago.

5. Minnesota Twins

Last Season: They won 66 games and that seemed like a pleasant surprise.

The Offseason: They brought in Ricky Nolasco to be their ace and Phil Hughes to be, um, something.

Potential Breakout Player: I don’t know that he’s going to get much time outside of September, but Byron Buxton is the next super-duper star of baseball. He’s a true five-tooler in the mold of Mike Trout and he’s waiting in the wings. The Twins system is fairly loaded (though an injury to second base prospect Miguel Sano will keep him out for the season) so it may just be a matter of time before they’re back contending, but even if they’re 26 games out when they call up Buxton, he should be a must-watch from the get-go.

Additional Comment: I continue to not understand the logic behind giving out long-term deals to middling pitchers. The Twins locked up Nolasco through 2018, because when there’s a pitcher with a career 94 ERA+ who has only pitched in the National League before, you just have to pay him $12 million annually. Likewise for Phil Hughes who is signed through 2016 and will earn $8 million per season. If someone in the Twins front office thinks that signing Nolasco and Hughes will fill the seats at Target Field and/or make the Twins a contender, I’ve got some beautiful oceanfront property in Serbia to sell them.

At Seasons End…: The Twins will challenge the Astros for the title of “Worst Team in the American League” and Ron Gardenhire will continue loving the Japanese women’s soccer team.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels

Last Season: The Angels expected the addition of Josh Hamilton would help guide them back to the playoffs and potentially to the World Series. Instead, the Angels secured themselves a mid-first round draft pick in 2014.

The Offseason: A few years ago, the Angels traded highly regarded prospect Tyler Skaggs and others for Dan Haren. This offseason, they got Skaggs back by trading a guy who couldn’t get on base at a better than 30% clip. Baseball! The Angels also acquired David Freese from the Cardinals in exchange for Peter Bourjos, allowing Mike Trout to play his natural position of centerfield, where he will win all of the Gold Gloves.

Potential Breakout Player: 25 year old rookie Kole Calhoun put together a really solid campaign in 50+ games last season, with an .808 OPS, a 128 OPS+, and absolutely no glove-work. Most people didn’t notice this, myself included, because the Angels were, outside of Trout, unwatchable. This year, people will notice.

Additional Comment: This team is a lot more than just Mike Trout, I guess, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t celebrate Trout at every possible opportunity. Trout is 22 years old and at this point in his career, his name belongs with players like Mantle and Griffey Jr. There’s no argument. We all get nostalgic for the past. It’s the Saturday Night Live way of thinking. Every previous iteration was better than the one we have now. It’s considered sacrilege to compare any player today to any great of the past. That’s all nonsense to me. The SNL part. The baseball part. All of it. Whether you’re an Angels fan, Dodgers fan, Nationals fan, Red Sox fan, Yankees fan, or Tigers fan, you should cherish how lucky you are to watch a player like Trout, as a baseball fan. He doesn’t need to be the posterboy for the Sabermetric movement. He doesn’t need to be the posterboy for any movement. He’s a once-in-a-generation player. Blink and you’ll miss him.

Additional Comment 2: This additional comment won’t include Mike Trout. The Angels find themselves here because they are the most balanced team in this division. Texas has an incredible offense. Oakland has a good starting rotation and very good bullpen. LA’s lineup isn’t as good as Texas’ and their pitching isn’t as good as Oakland’s. But if Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols are healthy this team will certainly compete for a division title.

At Seasons End…: LA will just barely hold off the Rangers in the race to avoid the play-in game.

2. Texas Rangers

Last Season: The Rangers pulled off the very difficult task of winning 91 games while still missing the playoffs after a late season collapse that saw them go 5-14 over a 19 game span in September.

The Offseason: It was eventful to say the least. The Rangers added, in my opinion, the prized offensive free agent in Shin-Soo Choo, while also trading malcontent Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder, thus freeing up a spot in their lineup for super-prospect Jurickson Profar.

Potential Breakout Player: It was Profar until a torn shoulder muscle this spring put him on the shelf until late June. Let’s pretend former relief pitcher Tanner Scheppers is going to be a really good starting pitcher and go with him then.

Additional Comment: An injury to Yu Darvish leaves the Rangers with few options in the starting pitching category, hence Scheppers’ opportunity. I generally like my teams built on balance, but the 2014 Texas Rangers are an exception to that rule. I think they’ll be slow out of the gate, certainly. But getting Profar back in late June, a healthy Darvish much sooner, and then any sort of contributions from Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis could be a real boon to the Rangers. This prediction might look really silly in mid-May, but I think the Rangers will pull things together and get guys healthy at the right time.

At Seasons End…: Texas will be in the World Series and we’ll forget that Tanner Scheppers started on Opening Day.

3. Oakland Athletics

Last Season: Oakland defied skeptics and won the AL West before succumbing to the Detroit Tigers in the playoffs again.

The Offseason: The Oakland offseason recap should start at the end, as they lost Jarrod Parker for the season to Tommy John surgery and AJ Griffin to a muscle strain that will leave him out for at least a month of the season. As for additions, the A’s added Scott Kazmir to the rotation, Sam Fuld to the bench, and Luke Gregerson and Jim Johnson to what was already a very good bullpen.

Potential Breakout Player: You could argue that he broke out last year, but I’m going with Opening Day starter Sonny Gray. The diminutive righty was truly excellent in his first go-round of the Majors and I don’t expect that to change this year. Gray could be a dark horse Cy Young candidate. And if you were going to give me 40:1 odds on him, I might consider making a $10 bet.

Additional Comment: Oakland is in a tough spot. Losing Jarrod Parker hurts because he’s replaced by 30 year old journeyman Jesse Chavez and/or failed Colorado Rockies prospect Drew Pomeranz. Losing Griffin for a month hurts for the same reason. The A’s need their pitchers to be healthy to contend because their offense just simply isn’t good enough to win them games. People expecting Josh Reddick’s 2013 to be like his 2012 were slapped rudely across the face when they saw what most of the rest of us expected come to fruition. Meanwhile, Yoenis Cespedes had a difficult time staying healthy/drawing a walk/not striking out. Without those two performing, a lot falls on the shoulders of guys like Josh Donaldson, who may have been a revelation last year or may have been the 2013 version of 2012 Josh Reddick. I lean more towards the latter. That’s why they’re here. Sorry, @wipps.

At Seasons End…: Oakland will miss the play-in game by the slimmest of margins and Billy Beane will retreat to his beautiful penthouse condominium (I’m just guessing) and come up with a plan that will somehow, against the odds and logic, keep this team in contention in 2015.

4. Seattle Mariners

Last Season: They finished 20 games ahead of the last place team in their division.

The Offseason: The Mariners made a few fringe, but high-upside moves, in adding Corey Hart and Logan Morrison. They also signed Fernando Rodney to be their closer. Other than that, not much.

Potential Breakout Player: The Mariners will call on a young, homegrown second baseman named Robinson Cano to carry the load offensively for them. I’ve had a difficult time looking up his numbers last season in AAA Tacoma, but it’s the PCL, so you have to assume they were very good. Cano should be a top of the order table-setter for the bevy of great power hitters on the roster such as…..and also….

Additional Comment: You could, maybe, get me to buy the argument that the Cano signing was a smart one for the Mariners. It would take a lot of double IPAs, but you could maybe do it. But if I’m not under the influence of alcohol, I think it’s an absurd contract for a team without an identity. No team in baseball has to travel as much every season as Seattle. Their closest division opponent is 800 miles away. Take a look at this infograph about baseball travel, if you’d like. Seattle is not a desirable place for free agent baseball players. It’s a desirable place for late-20’s hipster doofuses like myself who enjoy wearing flannel shirts, eating locally-sourced food, and drinking really bitter beers. The travel schedule, combined with the fact that no one east of Carson City (besides me and other Vin Scully aficionados) watches regular season west coast games, means that you play in a sort of black hole. Robinson Cano is now part of that black hole. The Mariners have two good young pitching prospects in Taijuan Walker (who will unfortunately start the season on the DL) and James Paxton. Other than that, their system is weak. Mike Zunino and Brad Miller are everyday players now, but neither has the sort of ceiling that you can pair with Cano to build something. Robinson Cano is a very good baseball player. But of all the ridiculous 8-10 year contracts handed out since the dawn of the age of TV money (and that includes Miguel Cabrera’s) Cano’s might be the most illogical. With the Angels, you could see that they were trying to get to the World Series with Pujols and overpaid to try to get a few of his peak years. The Tigers don’t want to lose the face of their franchise. The Tigers thought Prince Fielder and Cabrera would each club 50 homers and be best friends and win a World Series. With those teams, there was something sensible about their deals. With Cano, it’s just another example of how some teams really don’t have a plan for the present, never mind the future.

At Seasons End…: More of the same.

5. Houston Astros

Last Season: The Astros weren’t quite the worst team in the history of baseball, but they weren’t terribly far off either.

The Offseason: They signed Scott Feldman to a laughable contract (3 years/$30 million) that can only be a result of some mandate from the Major League offices to spend money. They also made a really smart trade to add Dexter Fowler.

Potential Breakout Player: On a (projected) 58 win team, there are no breakout players.

Additional Comment: I love what the Astros are doing. To me, in baseball you have two goals: contend for a World Series or build to do that in the future. Tampa Bay did that in the mid-2000s and it’s paid dividends. Milwaukee did that for a while before they lost Prince Fielder and gave up hope. The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins are doing it now. To be a team like the current Milwaukee Brewers or the Philadelphia Phillies playing for absolutely nothing makes no sense at all to me. No one in baseball is rebuilding like the Astros. To the most casual of baseball fans (those who just look at the box scores and the standings), the Astros are a laughing-stock. But to anyone in the know, who follows this stuff more closely, the Astros are a model. They’re the Kate Upton of baseball models. Years of failure have paid off in the minor league system. No one comes close to Houston in terms of depth and upper echelon talent. From Carlos Correa, who will be a star shortstop soon, to Mark Appel and George Springer who will make their debuts this season, to pitchers Lance McCullers Jr. and Mike Foltynewicz, the Astros have talent galore and will again have the top pick in this June’s draft (expected to be North Carolina State southpaw Carlos Rodon). You might not want to watch them now, but the building blocks are in place in southeastern Texas and the Astros will soon be a force to be reckoned with. Just after they lose 100 games again.

At Seasons End…: See above.

AL Playoffs

Play-In Game: Texas over Tampa Bay

Wild Card Round: Texas over Detroit, New York over Los Angeles

ALCS: Texas over New York

AL Awards

MVP: Mike Trout (finally)

Cy Young: Justin Verlander

Rookie of the Year: Yordano Ventura

World Series

St. Louis over Texas (4-3)

2014 National League Preview

March 27, 2014 / Jason / Leave a comment

Last season, I did something very different with my MLB preview. In years past, I had just written one post for the season with predictions and some pithy comments.

Last year, I decided to write a team preview for all 30 clubs. This amounted to 30 posts in 30 days and about 17,000 words of thought, snark, and player names which still contribute to the total word count thankfully. It wasn’t the fun exercise I expected it to be. Especially not when I got to teams like the Brewers. Sorry, Brewers fan.

In 2014, given the amount of free time you’d perceive me to have, you would think that I’d be undertaking that same exercise. Instead, I decided to bury it. There’s a certain overzealousness that comes with thinking that anyone would want to read a Chicago Cubs preview written by some guy who doesn’t actually work as a sports journalist. And the pageviews indicated as much last year. Except for the Cardinals post which was four times more popular than any other post, probably because TBFIB.

So, in an effort to save your time, I present to you my NL Preview. Expect the AL preview some time on Friday. I would love feedback, disagreements, thoughts, corrections, and insults. So direct them my way on the social media (@midatlanticbias) or in the comments section.

(teams listed in predicted order of finish)

NL EAST

1. Washington Nationals

Last Year: Remember last season when I boldly went where every sportswriter was going and predicted that the Nats would run away with the World Series? That they’d cancel the season around mid-August because it just wasn’t close enough to finish it? That everyone would stay healthy and a big parade would be held down South Capitol Street?

Yeah, that didn’t happen. The Nats won 86 games, but finished four games out of the second play-in game spot. They were hampered by injuries and bullpen regression and poor management and a host of other problems. That said, they won 86 games.

The Offseason: The Nationals offseason was highlighted by one of the most inexplicable trades in recent memory, where the Detroit Tigers traded starting pitcher Doug Fister (30 years old, cheap, career ERA+ of 116) for a left handed relief pitcher, a utility infielder, and a fringy pitching prospect.

Elsewhere, the Nats added Nate McLouth (expensively) as a fourth outfielder and Jose Lobaton to be their backup catcher. None of those moves were particularly splashy, but if Wilson Ramos continues to be incapable of staying healthy, and Bryce Harper’s body continues to act like that of a 47 year old, Mike Rizzo might reclaim his “genius” sticker.

Potential Breakout Player: I’ll do one of these for each team. Consider it a player that most baseball fans don’t know about. If you’re a religious fan like me, you’ve heard of most of these people. As Conor Oberst once said, “I’m not singing for you.” For the Nats, I think it’s Tanner Roark. Roark is currently in a battle with Taylor Jordan for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. The loser likely ends up in Syracuse. Both are quality young arms, but I like Roark more, at least for this season, because of his ability to keep guys off base. Jordan gives up a lot of hits. Roark does not. Neither are dominant strikeout pitchers, but Roark has shown the most consistent ability to miss bats. Either is a better option than any number of teams have in their 3 spot.

Additional Comment: I’m glad to see Danny Espinosa back in the Majors. I was as frustrated as anyone with him last year and was happy to see him demoted, but this team needs his glove-work. He’s a plus-defender up the middle at either position and in the event of an infield injury (anywhere really, as Ryan Zimmerman is likely to see time at first base, which would move Anthony Rendon to third, etc.) will be a nice addition because of what he gives defensively. Any added pop (and Danny has that) offensively should be considered a plus at this point.

At Seasons End…: The Nats will have won the NL East with 93 wins, but will fail to get to the World Series, due in large part to the talent pools elsewhere in this league.

2. Miami Marlins

Last Year: Was an abject disaster. They lost 100 games and were the worst road team in baseball. Though they did feature the NL Rookie of the Year in Jose Fernandez and gave some much needed Major League development time to future start Christian Yelich.

The Offseason: Well, they’re the Marlins, so they didn’t go out and make any huge free agent splashes. They did add Jarrod Saltalamacchia (no, I didn’t have to look up the spelling of his last name) and Rafael Furcal, two veterans who, if healthy, are big upgrades at their position over last year’s starters, Jeff “I Still Love You Mike Scioscia” Mathis and Donovan Solano.

Potential Breakout Player: Henderson Alvarez ended last season by throwing a no-hitter that nobody noticed, because it was on the last day of the Major League season. His Spring (and I put very little stock into that for what it’s worth) was productive and he stayed healthy, something the 23 year old has had difficulty doing thus far in his early career. I like Alvarez because, like with Tanner Roark, he is showing an ability to miss bats. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, per se, but his K totals looked nicer this spring against a high level of talent (Baseball-Reference has a wonderful tool that grades the level of hitter a pitcher has faced during Spring Training).

Additional Comment: I am in no way saying that the 2014 Marlins are going to be like the 2003 Marlins. I don’t think they’re a playoff team. They’re a team playing in a fairly terrible division. But their rotation is very young and has a world of potential to be very, very good, led by Jose Fernandez, who I expect to compete with Clayton Kershaw and Jordan Zimmermann for the NL Cy Young. He’s backed up by Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob Turner, none of whom are older than 24 and all of whom have had some modicum of success in the Majors already. Add to that youth of the outfield (Yelcih, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jake Marisnick) and you’ve got the start of something very good in Miami.

At Seasons End….: They’ll be a mile behind the Nationals and much closer to the Braves, but they’ll be on the right path, assuming their owner doesn’t trade Stanton and Fernandez to the Yankees for Cash Considerations and a corned beef sandwich.

3. Atlanta Braves

Last Year: They were very good. They won 96 games, dominated at home in front of their 15,000 fans/night, and saw Freddie Freeman develop into one of the best first basemen in baseball.

The Offseason: They signed every young player they have to a long-term extension and then all of their pitchers died.

Potential Breakout Player: There’s really no player in the system or with the club now that isn’t a relative household name now. But I’d like to focus briefly on Andrelton Simmons. Simmons’ 2013 was arguably one of the greatest defensive seasons ever for any player. Simmons saved roughly 40 runs defensively. At the plate, he’s not vintage Alex Rodriguez. But he hit 17 home runs. If you’re going to get on-base 30% of the time, hit 17 home runs, and play historically great defense, you deserve a lot of attention. Here’s a 25 minute long video of his defensive highlights from last season. Enjoy.

Additional Comment: Their Opening Day rotation, right now, includes Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, Alex Wood, and David Hale. That’s four people. The Braves expect Mike Minor back by April’s end, after losing Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen in Spring Training. The Braves sitting below the Marlins is a direct result of that. And if you want to argue that Atlanta’s lineup is good enough to outweigh the rotational shortcomings, tell me exactly what Justin Upton, BJ Upton, and Jason Heyward did last season that leaves you confident that they can carry a team with a bottom 10 rotation. I’ll be here all day.

At Seasons End….: Fredi Gonzalez will be out (especially if rumors of BJ Upton batting second and Chris Johnson batting fourth are true), the Braves will be a sub-.500 team, and they’ll be shopping Justin Upton looking to bolster a less than stellar minor league system.

4. New York Mets

Last Year: Wasn’t very good, though the Mets may have surprised some people with 74 wins. Matt Harvey was a revelation and glimpses of the future had to brighten the hopes of Mets fans everywhere.

The Offseason: Matt Harvey had Tommy John surgery and was replaced in the 2014 rotation by Bartolo Colon. Meanwhile, Daisuke Matsuzaka may have won a rotational spot over a very good prospect in Jenrry Mejia and they gave a lot of money to Curtis Granderson. In other words, LOLMets.

Potential Breakout Player: I think it’s Mejia, who showed glimpses of a great future in a brief stint last year. Look, I’m familiar with the work of Daisuke Matsuzaka. New Yorkers are familiar with it too. They’re not going to be patient. Mejia is part of the future core of this rotation (with Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, and Noah Syndergaard) and is due for his opportunity.

Additional Comment: While I admire the idea of having lots of money to spend, I do not understand the signing of Curtis Granderson. Teams like the Mets who have a number of very good, club-controlled prospects (the pitchers above as well as Travis d’Arnaud and Dominic Smith) spending long-term dollars on past-their-prime players, when they have no hope of contending for a World Series, makes zero financial sense. In three years, when the Mets are going to be paying Granderson $16 million, they’ll also need to start thinking about locking up their, at that point (hopefully), developed prospects. You don’t give up on the present, but you don’t throw large free agent deals at players who aren’t going to push you over the hump.

At Seasons End…: The Mets will be about four losses worse than last season, but no worse long-term than they are today. Which is all you can ask for if you’re a Mets fan at this point.

5. Philadelphia Phillies

Last Year: The Phillies finished below the Mets, despite having a payroll of roughly $190 million. That’s not a misprint. Ruben Amaro Jr, their GM, still has a job.

The Offseason: Roy Halladay retired, they threw some money at AJ Burnett for some reason, and Jimmy Rollins fought with new manager Ryne Sandberg.

Potential Breakout Player: Maybe Jesse Biddle gets a cup of coffee and fills in nicely to a spot in the rotation. That’s the best case scenario.

Additional Comment: This is probably the most embarrassing team in baseball. Laugh all you want at the Astros, Cubs, and Marlins, but they didn’t pay a lot of money to be terrible last year. The Phillies paid nearly $200 million. They enter 2014 with the third highest payroll in baseball and no immediate help in a system missing immediate, high-impact prospects. The lineup you see today is the best lineup they’ve got. And it’s an awful, aging lineup, managed by a former player who is already fighting with the team’s presumed clubhouse leader, Jimmy Rollins. Enjoy the show in South Philly.

At Seasons End….: Phillies fans will rejoice because the season will be over and the Eagles will be playing football again.

NL CENTRAL

1. St. Louis Cardinals

Last Year: They did what they always do: received contributions from young pitchers, hit the ball, and got to the World Series, where they were “outclassed” by the Boston Red Sox.

The Offseason: Two moves that went mostly under the radar, but could pay big dividends: replacing Jon Jay’s terrible defense in center with Peter Bourjos and replacing Pete Kozma’s terrible everything at shortstop with Jhonny Peralta. And all they lost was David Freese.

Potential Breakout Player: Peter Bourjos. His glove should win him one of those fancy awards at the end of the season and I think his bat will give the Cardinals enough to make him a 3.5+ WAR player. He’ll steal bases and score a lot of runs for a guy batting down in a team’s order. And again, to get him, all they had to do was trade a guy who was blocking one of the organization’s upper echelon prospects.

Additional Comment: Moving Allen Craig to the outfield full time, to make space for Matt Adams at first might prove to be a drain on Bourjos’ endurance, as he’ll be covering both flanks (with Matt Holliday in left field and Craig in right). But those defensive concerns aren’t enough for me. The one area of mild concern is their rotation. Last fall, when the world was anointing Michael Wacha the best young pitcher in baseball (no, seriously, Curt Schilling said that: “ His mix and makeup are as good as any young pitcher I’ve seen in the game.”) I was perplexed. First, Clayton Kershaw is only 3 ½ years older than Wacha and more importantly, Wacha is a two-pitch pitcher. Over the course of a full season, that’s going to come back to haunt him. I still feel that way. That said, even if Wacha struggles, I don’t see a single challenger in this division. The Cardinals are the runaway NL Central favorite.

At Seasons End…The St. Louis Cardinals will find themselves back in the World Series.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates

Last Season: Magic! The Pirates finally made the playoffs and even though they were eliminated by St. Louis, ended the season poised to be a playoff contender for years to come, which is a weird sentence to write.

The Offseason: Well, they’re the Pirates, so they didn’t sign Jacoby Ellsbury or Masahiro Tanaka. But they did add Edinson Volquez. So…

Potential Breakout Player: Gregory Polanco won’t start the year in Pittsburgh, but he’ll likely finish it there and could be a key to any success Pittsburgh has in 2014. Polanco is a do-everything, top-tier prospect with an advanced approach at the age of 22. He’s probably ready for the Majors now, but Pittsburgh won’t rush him unless Jose Tabata is a total disaster. So expect to see Polanco by Memorial Day.

Additional Comment: This is a team that would have benefited greatly from knowing that someone like Doug Fister was available because Pittsburgh has the assets to have outbid the Nationals and could really use a groundball guy like Fister. The rotation is thin, being filled out at the back with Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Edinson Volquez. Jameson Taillon is waiting for his call-up, but Taillon doesn’t look to be the elite pitching prospect he was when the Pirates drafted him right after Bryce Harper and right before Manny Machado in the 2010 draft.

At Seasons End: They’ll get to play in the Major League Baseball Tries To Siphon Off Just One Extra Day of Coverage One-Game Playoff game again, but I don’t expect this team to make a real run at the World Series until a solid starter or two is brought in to accompany Gerrit Cole.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

Last Season: The Brewers’ best player, Ryan Braun, took a suspension plea deal for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal and the Brewers offense took a hit in his absence. They won just 74 games.

The Offseason: With a gaping hole in their rotation, the Brewers did what so few teams seem capable of doing: they added a good free agent starting pitcher. Matt Garza didn’t necessarily come cheap, but he’ll bolster a rotation with some upside to it. The Brewers also added Mark Reynolds. I just wrote that to make this section look bigger.

Potential Breakout Player: No team in baseball has a worse system than the Brewers. There is truly no “unknown” talent anywhere near their Major League club. The Brewers didn’t land a single prospect on Keith Law’s Top 100 prospects list and he wrote “no one was close.” He’s not lying.

Additional Comment: Look for the Brewers to trade former No. 2 overall draft pick Rickie Weeks at some point to a team in need of second base help. Weeks is now below a guy named Scooter on the team’s depth chart and the Brewers would be clearly desperate to bring back anyone with any real upside, despite the fact that Weeks may have seen his best days pass him by already.

At Seasons End…: The Brewers will have won a few more games than they did last year, but unlike a team like the Marlins, they won’t be set up for near future success, unless they can convince a lot of young free agents to move to Milwaukee.

4. Cincinnati Reds

Last Season: The Reds made the MLBTTSOJOEDOC One-Game Playoff game, losing to the Pirates 1-0. Then they fired Dusty Baker and hired first-time manager Brian Price, their former pitching coach.

The Offseason: Convinced that they didn’t need to do everything possible to keep Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 OBP at the top of their lineup, the Reds sat on their hands for a while before giving Homer Bailey a deal that in the year 2019 will pay him $23 million. I cannot believe I just typed that sentence and you shouldn’t believe you just read it.

Potential Breakout Player: Billy Hamilton is either going to become a household name or he’s going to be playing in Louisville by June. I don’t see any other scenario. He’s the fastest player in baseball, but speed is only good if you get on base. He’s not a good hitter (think Dee Gordon) and seems to have lost the patient approach that got him on-base at the lower levels of the minor leagues where he stole approximately 674 million bases.

Additional Comment: I don’t want to belabor the point, but the Homer Bailey contract is a head-scratcher to me and as a Nats fan, cannot mean that Jordan Zimmermann is going to come cheap. Homer Bailey is a perfectly fine pitcher with a couple of no-hitters to his name, but that’s really what he is. He’s a guy that can go out and be dominant a few times a year, but is mostly just pretty good. He’s like the rich man’s Edwin Jackson.

At Seasons End…: The Reds will be happy that the Cubs play in the same division. The loss of Choo is huge for this team. Outside of Joey Votto, this is not a team that gets on-base consistently or even well. Everyone is going to regress because of Choo’s absence. Why the Reds didn’t overpay for him I will never understand.

5. Chicago Cubs

Last Season: was a tire fire.

The Offseason: They brought in Justin Ruggiano and Jose Veras.

Potential Breakout Player: Javier Baez. Assuming that Starlin Castro continues to be himself, the Cubs would be wise to put their prized prospect into the everyday lineup and see what happens. Baez has incredible bat speed and should hit right away.

Additional Comment: Theo Epstein has built a great system in a short amount of time. Chicago should be a good team in the next five years. I’d imagine there will be another two seasons similar to 2013 before that happens, which just means more chances to draft elite players. There’s a smart way to rebuild and there’s the way a lot of other teams do it. Chicago is doing it the smart way.

At Seasons End…: The Cubs will still have not won a World Series since 1908.

NL WEST

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Last Season: was a tire fire until Yasiel Puig showed up and single-handedly made baseball exciting again. The Dodgers stumbled out of the gate like a Philadelphian at the annual Mummers parade. They struggled to be competitive in May. Then, on June 3, at 23-32, with Stephen Fife scheduled to take the mound against the Padres, the Dodgers called up The Wild Horse. They’d go on to win 92 games and take the Cardinals to 6 games in the NLCS.

The Offseason: They smartly extended the undisputed best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, through the end of time. They also signed Dan Haren and Paul Maholm. And Yasiel Puig drove his car too fast.

Potential Breakout Player: Not applicable, unless you want to count Matt Kemp.

Additional Comment: The Dodgers outfield is very crowded. Matt Kemp, at one point arguably the best player in baseball, hasn’t played this spring after foot surgery. He hasn’t been really healthy since his “should have been” MVP season in 2011. When he returns, which could be in mid-April, the Dodgers will have a choice between Kemp, Puig, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier. One of them is going to be benched. That means one of them is not going to be happy. And I get the sense that player is going to be Puig. Speeding at the rates that he was is obviously not something to joke about, but the media crucifiction of Puig is embarrassing and I think it’s permeated into the Dodgers locker room from what I read about Manager Don Mattingly. Puig is a talent that needs patience and I fear that his incredible 2013 will end up hurting him in the long run. I don’t even think it’s outside of the realm of possibilities that the Dodgers could try to move Puig if Kemp is healthy because he’s the most desirable asset on their roster (significantly cheaper than any of the other three outfielders who will all earn at least $15.5 million this season). You can’t have a player of Puig’s skill sitting on your bench and you can’t have a player earning $20 million sitting on your bench. So something is going to have to give in Elysian Park. It’s the most fascinating story of this season to me.

At Seasons End…: The Dodgers will be thankful that they play in a weak division (perhaps baseball’s weakest). I expect them to make the playoffs because there’s just too much talent for them not to. But even with all of that talent, the Cardinals are a more complete team and won’t have the droning sound of sportswriter columnists peppering the clubhouse with questions about who should be the odd man out in the outfield. That said, the Dodgers will be a must-watch every night. Especially when they’re at home with Vin Scully calling games. Because Vin Scully is a treasure that we should all celebrate at every opportunity.

2-5: Who Knows?

Last Season: As they tend to do, the teams in the NL West shuffled deck chairs, with the Diamondbacks finishing at .500, followed closely behind by the Padres, Giants, and Rockies.

The Offseason: The biggest acquisition of the offseason for the four teams was probably Colorado adding Brett Anderson or San Diego adding Josh Johnson, this is of course assuming that they’re both perfectly healthy, which they’ve literally never been. And so that means that Mark Trumbo and his sub-.300 OBP in Arizona or Tim Hudson and his being old take the trophy for “biggest offseason move” among the four also-rans.

Potential Breakout Player: This should be easier, given a pool of four teams to work with, but, well, it’s not. I’m going with the long-shot of Archie Bradley in Arizona. Bradley, the Diamondbacks top prospect, might not pitch in the rotation until an injury forces GM Kevin Towers’ hand, but Bradley is the real deal. And he’d benefit greatly from not having to pitch in pitcher-unfriendly Reno.

Additional Comment: The Dodgers used to be part of this deck chair routine before they became baseball’s biggest spenders. This routine is wearing paper thin, frankly. None of these teams ever seems to make the true, conscious effort to rebuild like the Cubs and Astros presently are. They add a piece here, trade a prospect there, and remain thoroughly mediocre throughout. Even the Giants, who have won two World Series trophies since 2010, can best be described as thoroughly mediocre. Each year they won the World Series, you’d be hard pressed to argue that they were the best team in baseball. In 2014, one of these teams is going to finish with 85 wins and secure a spot in the play-in game. The following year? They’ll probably finish in last place. Welcome to the NL West.

At Seasons End….: I like the Rockies to surprise and finish in second, followed by the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants. Offensively, if we assume a healthy Troy Tulowitzki (yes, I know what happens when you assume), the Rockies are unquestionably the best team of the four. The starting pitching goes about three guys deep, but really, the same can be said about the other teams involved too. Forgive me if I don’t sound too excited about 80% of the NL West.

NL Playoffs

Play-In Game: Pittsburgh over Colorado

Wild Card Round: St. Louis over Washington, Los Angeles over Pittsburgh

NLCS: St. Louis over Los Angeles

NL Awards

MVP: Yadier Molina

Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (really going out on a limb there)

Rookie of the Year: Gregory Polanco

A Brief Ode to Wichita State

March 24, 2014 / Jason / Leave a comment

The game of the year in college basketball, past or future, was played yesterday in the Gateway city (named that, I believe, because that’s where Gateway computers were manufactured). On Selection Sunday I was highly bothered by the draw undefeated Wichita State had received. It was almost as if the NCAA was trying to hurt a mid-major program for the benefit of its traditional blue-bloods. I know, really strange that the noble NCAA would do such a thing. While Virginia drew an average Memphis team from the American Conference, Florida drew the 5th best team in the ACC and Arizona drew Gonzaga, Wichita State was put into a position where their path to the Elite 8 was very likely to include Kentucky and the reigning champion Louisville Cardinals, themselves a victim of terrible under-seeding.

And so Wichita State, playing in a city 100 miles closer to Lexington, KY than southern Kansas, was forced to play “The Best Freshman Class In The History Of Basketball Ever.” The game was an instant classic. It was the kind of game that was better served for the Final Four or a National Championship game. Boxing metaphors are totally overdone. But this felt like a prizefight should feel. Each team took blows to the head and countered with body shots that left their opponent stunned. Cleanthony Early played the kind of game that should vault him into the discussion for the NBA lottery. He exhibited a great mid-range jump shot and deadly outside shooting. Meanwhile, super freshman Andrew Harrison had his best game of the season, sealing the game down the stretch at the free throw line, while Julius Randle did his best Zach Randolph impression.

The game was a gem. There were a handful of moments that left Jim Nantz and Greg Anthony, calling the game for CBS, with nothing to say but “OH!”

This is likely the end of the road, for now, for Wichita State. Early is a senior, as is Andrew Wiggins’ brother. Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, the Shockers great guard combo, are both sophomores, but without the athleticism of Early, this may not be a team that can be a national title contender, which they absolutely were this year. It’s just a shame that the NCAA didn’t want that to happen.

Quarterback Madness: 2013 Edition

January 16, 2014 / Jason / Leave a comment

Last year, I completed my third edition of “Quarterback Madness,” a March Madness-inspired bracket to determine the ultimate NFL “Franchise Quarterback.” Aaron Rodgers won it for the third time.

In the midst of writing that post, I remarked (on Twitter @midatlanticbias) that I wanted to write a backup quarterback post when I had the time.

Well, as you likely know if you’re reading this, I have the time. Plenty of it, in fact. However, I started that bracket three weeks ago and decided it was a totally foolish exercise to determine who the best backup quarterback in the NFL is (it’s obviously Ryan Mallett…).

(True story, I had a dream last night where I was a running back on the Patriots and we were in the Super Bowl. There were 2:11 left in the 4th quarter and we were losing by 9. I get in the offensive huddle and Brady says, “It’s over. I’m not even going to try.” I say, “Well then let me play quarterback.” Brady says absolutely not. I then say, “Well then get Mallett in the game.” And everyone in the huddle says, “MALLETT?????!!!!” Brady proceeded to throw an INT on the next play. We lost. Probably because I was the running back.)

So here’s (Starting) Quarterback Madness 2013-14:

The rules:

1. This is to determine the ultimate franchise quarterback in the NFL. Not the guy you’d want in a one-game situation right now. No, I want to know which guy you would most want to build your franchise around right now.

2. This is just my opinion. I’ll use supporting evidence where necessary. I’ll also use my opinion. A lot.

3. All 32 teams have a primary starting quarterback. Some of them (Green Bay, New England) are obvious. Some of them (Jacksonville, Minnesota, Houston) are just starting a (technically) living human being. In their case, I’ll just go with whoever I think they would start (health being equal among the depth chart) tomorrow.

4. Quarterbacks are seeded based on their team’s record entering Week 16 when I originally set up this bracket, then ignored it because Christmas, New Years, BCS National Championship travel (I let NFL.com determine the winners of tiebreakers).

5.There are four regions, each named for a backup quarterback from my childhood. They are:

Steve Bono Region (Overall #1 seed)
Scott Zolak Region (Overall #2 seed)
Damon Huard Region (Overall #3 seed)
Stoney Case Region (Overall #4 seed)

In the semifinals, Steve Bono winner plays Stoney Case winner. Let’s get to it.

ROUND 1
Steve Bono Region
#1 Russell Wilson (Sea)
#8 Teddy Bridgewater???? (Okay, Case Keenum) (Hou)
If this were an actual battle between Wilson and Bridgewater, I would probably lean to Teddy, who I think is going to be an elite NFL QB.

Russell Wilson is not an elite QB yet. He’s very good and perhaps better than anyone at the quarterback position when it comes to escaping a collapsing pocket.

Case Keenum has a pulse. That’s the best I can say here. Though, to be fair, I think Keenum can work in the NFL long-term.

#4 Ryan Tannehill (Mia)
#5 Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)
A really tough matchup. I like Tannehill more than I probably should. It’s debatable as to whether he improved this season. His QBR (ESPN’s quarterback rating) was lower in 2013 than 2012, and he threw more interceptions, but, otherwise, his stats were better across the board. He’s also 25 years old.

Roethlisberger is six years older, but has a track record of success. 2013 was arguably his second best season as a starter, even with the loss of Mike Wallace and a less than impressive running attack.

I go with Roethlisberger’s accomplishments (and the handful of years he has left) over Tannehill’s potential, which I’ve written before I think is only marginal (15th-20th best QB in the NFL).

#3 Andy Dalton (Cin)
#6 Jake Locker (Ten)
Locker’s completion percentage finally eclipsed 60% this season, in limited time (he started only 7 games). Locker’s complete inability to stay healthy is the biggest red flag here.

Dalton has proven so far to be a good October quarterback. He’s never won a playoff game. He’s never played well in a playoff game. But he gets his team to the playoffs.

#2 Tom Brady (NE)
#7 Blaine Gabbert (Jax)
“Hi, Welcome to the Mid-Atlantic Bias Restaurant. We have two specials tonight. One is a seared leg of lamb with a house made chimichurri, served with a parsnip puree and braised local greens. Our other special is a can of 3 Diamonds Tuna Fish accompanied by a can of Hormel chili. We will not provide you with a can opener. Shall I give you some time to look over the menu while I get some drinks started?”

Scott Zolak Region
#1 Peyton Manning (Den)
#8 Robert Griffin III (Was)
Probably the most fascinating and difficult first round matchup. Manning will be 38 when the 2014 season starts and might not actually play another game of football, depending on his neck’s usefulness.

Robert Griffin III will be 24 when the 2014 season starts and might not actually play another game of football like we expected him to, depending on his knees’ (I’m not even sure if that plural possessive works there) usefulness.

RGIII also brings with him questions about his diva-ness. Trust me, I listen to local sports talk radio. Peyton Manning doesn’t have any of those distractions. That said, if I have to invest in one of them for my future, I’m reluctantly taking RGIII because I might not get a future with Peyton Manning.

#4 Nick Foles (Phi)
#5 Geno Smith (NYJ)
This is neither fascinating or difficult. Foles was excellent in Philadelphia this season. Geno Smith was wildly inconsistent.

Also, all season, people asked, “Who saw this coming from Foles?” I did. At the end of my 2012 mock draft, I listed players who were projected to be later round picks who I thought would be successful in the NFL. Foles was my QB. TY Hilton was my WR. And Duke Ihenacho was my defensive player. All are starters in the NFL now and even though you might not know Ihenacho, he’s an integral member of the Broncos secondary. (In the interest of fairness, Baylor’s Terrance Ganaway was my running back choice. He was drafted in the sixth round and never played a down in the NFL. He recently retired.)

But 3 out of 4 isn’t bad. Seriously, someone hire me to work as a low level scout in their front office. I HAVE A BLOG!!!!

#3 Andrew Luck (Ind)
#6 Eli Manning (NYG)
Maybe you debate this matchup on Week 1 of the 2013 season. You don’t debate it now. It’s Luck. By a mile.

#2 Drew Brees (NO)
#7 Brandon Weeden (Cle)
You don’t debate this matchup on any week of the 2013 season. You don’t debate it now. You never bring it up again. It’s Brees. By a hundred million bajillion infinity miles.

Brandon Weeden might be the worse quarterback I’ve ever seen.

Damon Huard Region
#1 Alex Smith (KC)
#8 Mike Glennon (TB)
I was frankly surprised to see Mike Glennon have success in the NFL. Yes, he has the measurables. But I was never a fan of his in college and didn’t think he’d be an accurate passer in the NFL. I was wrong. He completed nearly 60% of his passes and put up a respectable (for a rookie on a terrible team) 19:9 TD/INT ratio.

I like him more than Alex Smith in this scenario because I like a fresh, seeded rye bread over a slice of enriched white bread. Alex Smith is always going to be a game manager. I think Glennon can be more than that. And yes, I’m shocked.

#4 Aaron Rodgers (GB)
#5 Phillip Rivers (SD)
The Screaming Father (can we please make that Rivers’ nickname?) had a wonderful 2013 campaign. I had written that I thought he was done and he proved me wrong. He was not done. He formed a great connection with rookie Keenan Allen and led an average Chargers team, with a rookie head coach, to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs.

However, Aaron Rodgers woke up today and he was still Aaron Rodgers.

#3 Joe Flacco (Bal)
#6 EJ Manuel (Buf)
Manuel was not dreadful as a rookie and he wasn’t nearly as inconsistent as Geno Smith, but he was not very good, either. 11 TDs and 9 INTs in 10 games is not very good. Or just plain good. And as I wrote in my 2013 NFL Mock Draft, I don’t expect Manuel to be a long-term option as a starter. Which is a shame, because he strikes me as a nice enough guy. And I like nice guys.

Joe Flacco is the definition of “average quarterback” despite his enormous paycheck. I’ve started to think of Flacco as the slightly richer man’s Andy Dalton. I’m not sure who I’m insulting or complimenting there. That said, Flacco and his Super Bowl ring advance.

#2 Colin Kaepernick (SF)
#7 Matt Ryan (Atl)
Kaepernick took a step back in 2013 and Ryan played without any help on the offensive side of the ball, so this is a really tough matchup.

As I wrote last year, Ryan has reached his ceiling in my mind. And Kaepernick still hasn’t. I think Kaepernick can be the same guy against the other 30 teams as he is against the Green Bay Packers. I’m not as bullish on him this time around because he was inconsistent and looked kind of like the tall, more athletic version of Alex Smith at times, but his potential is so much more than that. A tough exit for a very good quarterback in Matt Ryan.

Stoney Case Region
#1 Cam Newton (Car)
#8 Matt McGloin (Oak)
I don’t even know how Matt McGloin became an NFL starter. This league is so confusing.

#4 Tony Romo (Dal)
#5 Matthew Stafford (Det)
I hate to do this because I think Romo is a Top 10 quarterback in the NFL, but Stafford is 8 years younger than him (at only 25, amazingly). Stafford looked like a man lost at times this season, but I just can’t overlook his youth and the production he’s already created in his young career.

#3 Jay Cutler (Chi)
#6 Sam Bradford (Stl)
I’m going with Jay Cutler here. I don’t like it. I wanted Sam Bradford to be a gunslinging 5,000 yard machine in the NFL, not because I loved Sam Bradford, but because he should be that guy. Instead, he’s going to be Matt Hasselbeck. Cutler is going to be Jay Cutler. There’s no one else like him. Thank God.

#2 Carson Palmer (Ari)
#7 Matt Cassel (Min)
This is a really tough choice because it’s such an awful one. On the one hand, Matt Cassel is a really great backup quarterback who can give you something when you need him to come off the bench. On the other hand, Carson Palmer is 34 years old, but I often mistake him for being 44 years old. Palmer also threw 22 interceptions in 2013, which is an insane number.

But, alas, he’s the winner here because he’s an actual starting quarterback and not just a guy who wins a starting job by default over Samantha Ponder’s husband and Greg Schiano’s mortal enemy.

ROUND 2
Steve Bono Region
#1 Russell Wilson
#5 Ben Roethlisberger
Every year when it comes down to Roethlisberger, I mention the fact that he was twice accused of sexual assault and once nearly died whilst riding his motorcycle like an idiot.

Now, I don’t spend any time with Russell Wilson (though I will if you’d like to Russ. DM me). But Russell Wilson is probably not going to be accused of sexual assault twice and probably isn’t going to crash his motorcycle. I don’t even know that he has a motorcycle.

All of this is to say that, on the field, I think an argument can be made for Large Ben. It’s hard to argue against two Super Bowls. It’s hard to argue against a guy who hasn’t had a season QB rating below 90 since 2008.

It’s even harder to argue against a guy who is 6 years younger, has brought his team to at least the Divisional Round in his first two seasons, had a rating over 100 in both seasons, and is so easily marketable because of his looks, charisma, and general perceived nature. That stuff matters. That’s the stuff of winners.

#3 Andy Dalton
#2 Tom Brady
There might come a day in a few years when this will require more than a passing thought, but that day is not today. Nor is it tomorrow.

Scott Zolak Region
#8 Robert Griffin III
#4 Nick Foles
I think Nick Foles is the clear choice here. The one thing that RGIII had on Peyton Manning was his age. Manning is only really going to give you one or two more seasons. Maybe. Foles is 24, though and is coming off of a season where he looked every bit the part of “Starting NFL Quarterback.”

Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III is coming off a season in which he looked like a broken man. He has youth on his side, sure. But I’m going to place my chips on the healthy guy who exceeded expectations and still has room to develop.

#3 Andrew Luck
#2 Drew Brees
Easily the best matchup of this round. Luck is the winner because of youth and room to grow. Bear in mind, before Reggie Wayne got hurt, Luck had 10 TD and 3 INT. After losing Wayne, and with no real running game, Luck still put up very good numbers. People will remember the interceptions in Foxborough. I’ll remember that he’s 10 years younger than Brees, who is, of course, very good.

But as I’ve said before, Luck’s ceiling is near limitless. Brees’ ceiling is likely behind him at this point.

Damon Huard Region
#8 Mike Glennon
#4 Aaron Rodgers
This is precisely the point where I stop praising Mike Glennon.

#3 Joe Flacco
#2 Colin Kaepernick
Kaepernick wins this Super Bowl 47 rematch.

He has the size of Flacco, with as strong of an arm, and acres and acres more mobility (mobility now being measured in acres). Kaepernick’s “step back” in 2013 was still statistically better than Flacco’s regular 2013, which was terrible (22 INTs to 19 TDs).

Stoney Case Region
#1 Cam Newton
#5 Matthew Stafford
A really tough matchup here. Age isn’t a determining factor. Both have shown weaknesses. Both have shown great strengths.

What gives Cam Newton the edge to me is the extra dimensions: his size and running ability. Also, his ceiling. I think Matthew Stafford is essentially there. He’s a mistake-prone Drew Brees. Cam Newton’s ceiling, still, I don’t believe, exists. Cam could be the transformational quarterback that I expect Kaepernick to be. It’s been three years now and we’re starting to see small steps that show Newton can be a better manager of the game, while still possessing that wild card in his back pocket (his ability to make game changing plays). Newton is not going to ever pass for 5,000 yards. But I think what Newton “can be” is more valuable than the gunslinger that Stafford is.

#3 Jay Cutler
#2 Carson Palmer
Jay Cutler.

ROUND 3
Steve Bono Region
Russell Wilson
Tom Brady
There were moments this season, even when you take into account that he was throwing to guys you’ve never heard of, where Tom Brady looked like he was getting older. There were rough games against the Jets (twice), Cincinnati, Buffalo, and Miami. There’s something to be said about New England’s bizarre move to a power running team late in the season. Brady is 36.

Wilson has yet to enter the prime of his career. Sure he was better as a rookie, but he’s still only 25 and has the ability and potential to give a franchise 10 more years of dynamic, high-level play. He wins.

Scott Zolak Region
Nick Foles
Andrew Luck
This is kind of like the Mike Glennon thing where I just pat Nick Foles on the back, tell him he “done good,” and ask him to run on home.

Damon Huard Region
Aaron Rodgers
Colin Kaepernick
Last year’s final becomes a regional final in 2013. Rodgers won last year because I didn’t feel like I was losing anything dynamic with Rodgers and he’s only 4 years older than Kaepernick. That remains true today. Rodgers would have put up another 4,000 yard season if not for his collarbone injury. He just turned 30. That’s probably 6-8 more years of high-level play if we compare him to his peers (Manning, Brady, Brees). He advances to the final four again.

Had Kaepernick grown a bit this year (or played like he does against Rodgers more often than when the Packers were in town) he would have won. But we didn’t see that development.

Stoney Case Region
Cam Newton
Jay Cutler
That Jay Cutler got to the final 8 when Peyton Manning and Drew Brees didn’t is just evidence of how the seeding can be kind of screwy.

Cutler is not a bad quarterback. He’s not a great quarterback. He is, and always will be, Jay Cutler. And if you think I should elaborate more, well, I DOOOOOOOOOONNNNN’T CAAAAAAAAAARRRRRE.

FINAL FOUR
Russell Wilson
Cam Newton
Wilson is marginally (six months) older. So that doesn’t matter.

I’m going to venture into territory I don’t typically like. It means I’ll have to put on my “old white guy newspaper columnist” hat.

Cam Newton as “team leader” is not yet something I’m comfortable with. No one likes losing in the National Football League. But to see Cam Newton sitting on the sidelines with his head down and a towel over him..well, when was the last time you saw Brady, Manning, or Brees act like that?

Wilson might not have Cam’s size, but he has a very similar level of dynamism to his game and a very strong arm for such a small quarterback. He’s the guy here.

Andrew Luck
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck is going to be Aaron Rodgers some day. I think that’s his ceiling and that’s a ceiling that will take him to the Hall of Fame, if his health stays intact. He’s built similarly. He can run, and not just “when needed to.” He has everything you want in a quarterback. And he’s six years younger than Rodgers.

But, again, I come back to the same thing I did with Kaepernick and (spoiler) the same thing I’ll come back to with Wilson: Rodgers is only 30. He’s still in his prime. And he’s still going to perform at a high level for years to come (injuries aside). And he’s been durable, aside from the collarbone thing which is not something that is going to be a recurring issue, like a knee injury (or multiple). It’s Rodgers.

CHAMPIONSHIP
Russell Wilson
Aaron Rodgers
Congrats to your 4-time winner, Aaron Rodgers.

Next year might be the year though. I expect a big advancement from Wilson, Kaepernick, and Luck. And Newton will continue to tweak his game. Plus we’ll have the arrivals of Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr to weed out some of the uncertainty in places like Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, Tennessee…God, for a quarterback league, there are some bad QBs right now.

Disagree with any of this. Tell me on twitter (@midatlanticbias) or in the comments section. Unless you’re lobbying for Brandon Weeden. Keep those thoughts to yourself.

10 Things The Nats Should Do This Offseason

November 18, 2013 / Jason / Leave a comment

(according to an unemployed person who has never worked in a sports front office, because this is the internet, people)

The baseball offseason is underway and, well, right now it’s at a very slow simmer. The top free agent on the market is Robinson Cano, but with his sights (at age 31) set on $300 million, the bidding war will only be between the Yankees and Cano. I’d guess that he ends up with 8 years/$210 million with New York. The only team I can see sneaking in to sign him is in Los Angeles, but it isn’t the Dodgers (okay, they’re technically in Anaheim, which is nearly as far from Dodger Stadium as Camden Yards is from Nationals Park, but go with me here).

Hey, speaking of Nationals Park….

By any set of expectations, the Washington Nationals were the most disappointing team in 2013. As it turned out, they were not invincible. Injuries hampered them. Regression wafted over the locker room. And the bullpen imploded repeatedly.

If the 2014 Nationals are going to get back on the contention track, they need to shake things up. They have already hired first-time manager Matt Williams to drive the train. Williams was not my favorite candidate. I would have much preferred to see Charlie Manuel on South Capitol Street, but chances are, after being managed by a near-octogenarian for the previous 2 seasons, they wanted to go young in the managerial office. Williams will bring his Arizona Diamondbacks Grit™ to Washington. I’m not sure how that will work. But we’ll see.

Now that the managerial hole is filled, there are ten things I’d like to see happen during this offseason. They probably need to happen in this order:

1. Trade Adam LaRoche

LaRoche’s trade value is very low. He’ll earn $12 million in 2014 (there’s a mutual option for 2015 that will not be mutually agreed upon). I see no reason to keep LaRoche around for another season, because he is stunting the growth of a number of players. His mere presence limits what the Nationals can do. So eat half of his salary, bring back a low-to-mid tier A-ball pitcher, and proceed onward. Tampa Bay makes some sense, as they’re in dire need of a power-hitting first baseman.

2. Move Ryan Zimmerman to First Base

Does Ryan Zimmerman want to move to first base? I don’t know. I’d guess that he doesn’t. But if Ryan Zimmerman wants to help this team win a World Series, he has to acknowledge that a move across the diamond helps this team more than his whirling-dervish throws from third base will.

Every advanced metric shows that Zimmerman was a disaster at 3B last year. Science teaches us that we, as humans, do not ever get younger. With that knowledge, it’s a safe assumption that the ailments and injuries that we accrue don’t just get better. Zimmerman’s shoulder is a mess. Moving him to first base means far fewer throws across the diamond, unless the 3-5 putout becomes en vogue.

3. Move Anthony Rendon Back To His Natural Position at Third Base

This is self-explanatory. Rendon has a long-term ankle issue. He was fortunate enough to not take a slide to his ankle while playing second base last year. He belongs at third and with Ryan Zimmerman across the diamond, that can happen.

4. Fill The Void At Second Base With Danny Espinosa

At least for now. Look, Robinson Cano isn’t walking through that door, nor, as a Nats fan, do I want him to. Cano will cost far too much money.

Danny Espinosa’s 2013 was a disaster that landed him in Syracuse. My hope is that a new manager and perhaps some new perspective will turn him into less of a liability at the plate. Because in the field, he’s very good.

5. Sign Jordan Zimmermann To A Long-Term Deal

It’s going to cost a lot of money, but it’s absolutely imperative for the Nats to keep Zimmermann in DC. He’s the best pitcher on the staff. If you want to argue that Stephen Strasburg is, you don’t watch a lot of Nats games. Zimmermann’s second half was a few steps behind his first half, but all told, his 2013 was good enough to call him a front-line starter. He should be paid like one. His contract expires in two years. He should be extended, at least, 6 years/$90 million. I’d go higher too.

6. Trade Ian Desmond

Ian Desmond’s contract is also up in two years. He is, right now, the best shortstop in the National League. He’s won the previous two Silver Slugger awards (say what you’d like about that) and was a Gold Glove finalist (see previous aside) in 2013. His defense has greatly improved. He went through a defensive slump at the start of the year, but he put it together.

At the plate, Desmond is inarguably the best SS in the National League (we are assuming that Troy Tulowitzki is hurt, because, of course he is). He’s hit 20+ homers each of the last two season and he’s improved his on-base pct to a respectable .330 level.

So, why trade him?

Well, he’ll be very expensive to extend. More expensive than Zimmermann. Elvis Andrus, a lesser player than Ian Desmond, was extended by the Rangers to the tune of $15 million per season through 2022. Desmond’s value is never going to be higher than it is right now. I firmly believe he can be the centerpiece of a trade that will bring back a solid number 2 starter (think Jeff Samardzija). And if Detroit is willing to listen on Max Scherzer (as the rumors insist they are), well, Ian Desmond’s not a bad place to start.

7. Acquire Jurickson Profar. Make Him The Starting Shortstop

Lucas Giolito and AJ Cole for Profar. Texas can’t say no to that. Is it a lot to give up? Absolutely. Do I think Profar is worth it? Absolutely.

8. Take a Flier on Josh Johnson

He’ll be a cheap free agent with a lot of injury concerns. So you give him a one-year deal with a player option at about $5 or $6 million per year and hope that there’s something left in his arm tank. Yes, arm tank.

9. Listen on Denard Span

It’s worth listening. Maybe start the Texas Rangers off with Giolito and Span for Profar. Include Nate Karns in that. Maybe Texas likes the idea of having a true starting centerfielder and not Julio Borbon.

Span seems like a nice fellow, but I want an outfield made up of guys who get on base. Bryce Harper can play centerfield. Move him over to center field and…

10. Back The Brinks Truck Up To Shin-Soo Choo’s House

Mike Rizzo: “Shin-Soo, what will it take to get you to Washington and in left field?

Choo: “(A number and year)”

Mike Rizzo: “Great. Sign here.”

Choo is a good enough defensive corner outfielder, but that’s not why I covet him. He is the true leadoff hitter that this team needs. He would be an excellent fit in this lineup. Is signing him the top offseason priority? Probably not down on South Capitol Street. But if the cash is there (it is), and you can make the above moves happen to open the space for Choo, why not do this? Why not?

Bonus: Bring Michael Morse back as a pinch-hitter at a low cost. Just do it. For me. I love nostalgia. And I love A-Ha.

My Ideal Opening Day Lineup:

LF: Shin-Soo Choo

3B: Anthony Rendon

CF: Bryce Harper

1B: Ryan Zimmerman

RF: Jayson Werth

C: Wilson Ramos

SS: Jurickson Profar

2B: Danny Espinosa

P: Stephen Strasburg

Rick Pitino Loves Italian Restaurants and Other Things: The 2013-14 College Basketball Preview

November 11, 2013 / Jason / Leave a comment

Normally, I don’t write season previews after the season has begun because that seems unfair. However, regardless of what the schedule says, and with all apologies to UMass-Lowell and Northern Kentucky, the season starts tomorrow, or tonight if you care about Stanford and BYU (I do…11 p.m. on ESPN2).

I love ESPN’s 24 hours (it’s actually about 29) of college hoops to start the season. Maybe you have a job and can’t stay up to watch Wichita State host Western Kentucky at 1 a.m. Eastern, but I don’t have a job and I can. Will I? Only if the fates (and my body) allow.

The 24 hours of college hoops is a fantastic gimmick enterprise that gives teams like Hartford University and New Mexico State nationally televised games at odd hours. When you wake up tomorrow to get ready for work, Hartford will be playing 2013 March Madness cinderella Florida Gulf Coast University.

The whole shebang culminates though in what is probably the best doubleheader, on paper, in the recent or distant history of college basketball with #1 Kentucky and #2 Michigan State playing at 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) followed by #4 Duke and #5 Kansas playing at 9:30 (ESPN) in Chicago. There are far too many “made for TV” college basketball tournaments during the non-conference season, but this is not one that I will complain about (it’s also not technically a tournament).

The four teams playing in that doubleheader could very well be your four Final Four teams in April. Kentucky brings in a freshman class similar to the one that won the championship two seasons ago, led by future top 2 NBA Draft pick Julius Randle. Michigan State brings back the leadership of seniors Keith Appling and Adreian Payne, as well as super-sophomores Gary Harris. Duke welcomes Chicago’s-own Jabari Parker, who will host a homecoming of sorts tomorrow when he welcomes Kansas into the United Center.

The Jayhawks are the most high-profile team coming into this season because of Andrew Wiggins, the latest Toronto to America star (joining Aubrey Drake, Justin Bieber, and to a lesser extent, Kelly Olynyk).

Wiggins, or “The Canadian Michael Jordan” (no pressure) is the highest profile freshman since I cannot remember when. There’s a world of pressure on a player with absurd athleticism, great defensive prowess, and, if we’re to believe the scouts, a tendency to “Ben McLemore” (v. To disappear from time-to-time.).

It will be interesting (nay, fascinating) to watch Parker in his hometown arena play Wiggins with the eyes of the college basketball world glaring at him for the first time. Neither freshman will feel this much pressure again until the tournament starts. It will be interesting to see who, if either, can excel in that environment. I’m more than a little excited for this game.

And that’s to say nothing about the “undercard” between the top two teams in the country (according to the entirely subjective and predictive rankings of the Associated Press).

So, who else is good?

Well, we should probably start with the Louisville Cardinals, who return Russ Smith, who thought for some reason that he would be a coveted NBA Draftee, but lose Peyton Siva and (more importantly in my mind) Gorgui Dieng. Chane Behanan returns (and was just (literally as I was typing this paragraph) reinstated by Rick Pitino) as does Kevin Ware, whose recovery from tearing his leg apart was much faster than the “forever” I though it would be.

Arizona is also good and well coach, with Sean Miller still at the helm. The Wildcats bring in a great freshman class led by Aaron Gordon.

The Wildcats travel to Ann Arbor in mid-December for a game against the Michigan Wolverines that will be a big test for both teams. Look for the intriguing matchup of the freshman Gordon with Michigan’s “out of nowhere” NCAA tournament sensation Mitch McGary.

Outside of the traditional power conferences, Virginia Commonwealth and Wichita State are the cream of the crop, as both return key players from teams that made the tournament last season (with the Shockers advancing to the Final Four).

The one team who I think is on the outer fringes right now who could make a big run this season is Oregon, assuming they aren’t jet-lagged from having to open the season in South Korea.

Okay, I’ve Read Enough. Who Is Going to the Final Four?

Michigan State is. I love Tom Izzo coached teams. Michigan State won’t out finesse anyone, but they will brutalize everyone. The matchup tomorrow with Kentucky’s athletic young players will be really interesting to watch, but even if the Spartans fall, this is a team that is made for March and early April, led by the best coach in college basketball.

So is Kentucky. Last year’s weird mix of talented players with no rhythm is a thing of the past. This team resembles the championship team too much for me to ignore. I expect Julius Randle to play himself into the top pick of the NBA Draft.

I also really like Arizona. Sean Miller keeps getting teams close. This is the team to get over the top, led by the freshman Aaron Gordon who will lead the Pac-12 in rebounding.

And finally, VCU, which seems, I’m sure, like just trying to go against the grain, but much like with Michigan State, this is a team whose style is suited for March. They’re deep. They shoot well. And they run better than anyone else. And with a fairly easy regular season schedule, I expect VCU to have a fairly smooth path in the tournament, likely as a 2 or 3 seed.

In the finals, I like the contrast between Michigan State and VCU. It will be a physical, bruising, probably low-scoring affair, but ultimately, I like Michigan State to come out on top.

Who Is The Top 10 Team That Won’t Be There At The End of the Season?

Oklahoma State. I like Marcus Smart a lot. How could you not? But Oklahoma State is ranked in the top-10 right now because a really good player came back to school, not because they’re exceptionally deep or do anything really well. Le’Bryan Nash is a good player too. But again, my previous point…

Who Is The Player of the Year?

Julius Randle at Kentucky.

What Are The Chances That Any Of This Will Be Right?

21.35%.

Mid-Atlantic Bias

A blog by Jason Botelho about sports and other Jason Botelho things

Author: Jason

In Defense of Michael Bradley

MLB 25 And Under Dream Team

Xander Bogaerts

Yasiel Puig

Mike Trout

Giancarlo Stanton

Freddie Freeman

Bryce Harper

Derek Norris

Anthony Rendon

Rougned Odor

2014 World Cup Preview

2014 NFL Mock Draft or How I Love Teddy Bridgewater When No One Else Seems To

2014 American League Preview (And World Series Prediction)

2014 National League Preview

A Brief Ode to Wichita State

Quarterback Madness: 2013 Edition

10 Things The Nats Should Do This Offseason

Rick Pitino Loves Italian Restaurants and Other Things: The 2013-14 College Basketball Preview