Author: Jason

Oakland Athletics Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: John Jaso


Potential Fatal Flaw: Getting too hung up on last year. Also the potential for injuries.


Ceiling: AL Wild Card

Floor: 4th in the AL West

Overall: Last year was a magical one in both cities by the Bay. The one with beautiful ballpark on the west side of the Bay won the World Series while the team on the east side shockingly won the AL West.

The 2012 Oakland Athletics were successful largely because of pitching depth. It certainly wasn’t because of the offense. Only one player who played in more than 100 games had an on-base percentage above .333 (Yoenis Cespedes). And yes, they got part-time contributions from Jonny Gomes, Brandon Moss, and Seth Smith, but make no mistake, this team won with pitching.

Of the 9 players who made at least 6 starts in the rotation, only one (Tyson Ross) had an ERA+ below 103 (Ross’s was an abysmal 61). That said, only one guy (Tommy Milone) made 30 starts. No one threw 200 innings. There was a real similarity between what happened in Oakland and what happened in Baltimore. Deep pitching staffs made up of good, but not great pitchers (certainly all guys with flaws) all coming together at one time to pitch well as an overall unit.

No one in Oakland’s rotation coming into 2013, save for the always injured Brett Anderson, has ace-like stuff. When Anderson is healthy for the 35 minutes per year that he sets aside, he’s a very good pitcher, as evidenced by a career 118 ERA+ (156 in abbreviated time last year). Jarrod Parker may be a recognizable name to fans, as he was a high level prospect for the Diamondbacks, but Parker needs to cut back on his walks (63 of them last year) if he’s going to be a long-term fixture in a Major League rotation. After Anderson and Parker, it’s Milone, AJ Griffin, and Dan Straily. All three pitched beyond reasonable expectation last season. Griffin’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA. Milone’s home/road splits are laughably dramatic, and Straily’s FIP was 2 ½ runs higher than his ERA.

Offensively, Oakland made one nice addition in adding John Jaso behind the plate. Jaso (whose name I will inevitably leave spelled “Jason” here) doesn’t bring a lot of power, but he will get on-base, something the A’s had trouble with in 2012. Outside of him and Cespedes, who I don’t expect much regression from, Oakland is thin. Brandon Moss, for his career, has 4 homers off of left-handed pitchers. Add that to the fact that he brings a career OBP of .317 and it’s reasonable to assume that he probably shouldn’t be a full-time starter. But he is.

Elsewhere, Coco Crisp remains the starting centerfielder, though if we’re going to go with guys who can’t get on base, the A’s would be much better off playing Chris Young everyday, as he at least adds some power to a lineup that, outside of Cespedes and Josh Reddick, doesn’t have much.

If there is one word to describe the 2013 A’s, at least in preview form, it’s regression. Last year was a random year for a number of players (including the now departed Jonny Gomes). Their pitchers will have to be as good, or better, and Brett Anderson will have to make 30 starts (he’s done that once in his career) if the A’s are going to return to the postseason.

I don’t see that happening. It’s not a criticism of the 2012 A’s and their accomplishments. They were a really fun team who used their assets well and may have gotten lucky with a few investments, so to speak. Rarely, if ever, does that happen in consecutive years. Until the offense resembles something close to what I think Billy Beane would like his lineup to look like (power throughout, high OBPs), Oakland is going to struggle to score runs consistently and ultimately, struggle to replicate last year’s success.

Predicted Finish: 75-87

St. Louis Cardinals Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Not applicable


Potential Fatal Flaw: Middle infield

Ceiling: World Series champion

Floor: Just missing the playoffs

Overall: Up the middle, with the antichrist Pete Kozma and second baseman Daniel DeScalso, the Cardinals are not very good.

Everywhere else, including on their disabled list and in their minor league system, they are.

The Cardinals are really good. Like any team, they’ll need to have some lucky with injuries, which they’ve yet to have this calendar year. They’ll start the year without the services of third baseman David Freese, shortstop Rafael Furcal, closer Jason Motte, and rotation stalwart Chris Carpenter, whose career is likely over. Even with those losses, the Cardinals are still a formidable bunch.

I might find him to be a really annoying player, but it’s hard to argue against Yadier Molina. He’s probably the game’s best defensive catcher (at least until Christian Bethancourt becomes Atlanta’s full time catcher). Some day, he may become the first manager of an American sports franchise with neck tattoos. That’s something.

While Allen Craig has had a difficult time staying healthy during his playing career, you can’t argue against the results when he has been healthy. His OPS+ in 2011 was 151, while it dropped a bit to a still impressive 137 last season. He hits for power and he doesn’t strike out a lot. That more than makes up for shaky defense.

While losing David Freese’s career .363 on-base percentage for a few weeks will hurt, they’re replacing him with the fairly capable Matt Carpenter (.365 on-base in his rookie season last year).

Jon Jay might have no power in his bat, but he is the ideal leadoff hitter for this lineup, coming off a career year in 2012 that saw him get on-base at a .373 clip. He doesn’t steal a lot of bases, but that’s frankly a good thing with Craig, and Jay’s two outfield partners, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday, batting behind him.

It’s worth noting because of the relative fragility of Beltran that the Cardinals have Oscar Tavares at AAA Memphis, waiting in the wings to take over for Beltran if he gets hurt. Tavares’ most common comp is Vladimir Guerrero. He’s rated as a top 5 prospect by a number of publications. And he leads a minor league organization that is regarded by most experts as the best in baseball.

The rotation is solid. There’s not a lot of depth in the event of an injury and while Jake Westbrook isn’t an ideal Major League starter, he’s perfectly fine at the back end of a rotation on a team as good as the Cardinals. Westbrook will pitch alongside Adam Wainwright (recently signed to a long-term extension), Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller, and Lance Lynn. Is the starting pitching the best in the National League? Certainly not. It’s definitely the weakest link on the team. But I don’t see that becoming a problem.

Really, I don’t see much of any problem with the Cardinals. Even their bullpen is very good with live arms throughout. They didn’t make any real offseason move, because they didn’t have to. With a system this good, feeding a big league club this good, St. Louis is smart to stay pat and save some money. St. Louis’ ceiling is as high as any team’s. If they can recover from their current injuries and stave off too many disabled list trips, they’ll contend with Washington to be the National League’s best team.

Predicted Finish: 94-68

Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Zack Greinke


Potential Fatal Flaw: Getting a lot of different pieces clicking together

Ceiling: World Series Champion

Floor: Just missing the playoffs

Overall: Money doesn’t buy happiness. You’ve heard it before. I’ve heard it before. Now, I feel pretty confident that I’d be a pretty happy guy if I all of a sudden stumbled upon a few million dollars. I’d do the things I love doing. I would drive around the United States and Canada, eating great food and meeting interesting people. Maybe you like art. You could buy lots of fancy paintings and sculptures. Perhaps you’re a “quality time” person. You could become your town’s Jay Gatsby and hobnob and bandy about.

The point is that in regular life, money can buy a lot of things that can make you happy. That’s not the case in baseball life. Money buys you players. Players only make you happy if they win a World Series. That’s it.

When you spend a lot of money, you demand World Series trophies. You demand happiness. The Los Angeles Dodgers, over the past 9 months have spent a lot of money in search of happiness. It started last year when the Dodgers acquired the Boston Red Sox. They depleted much of their farm system in the process, dealing away high-level pitching prospects Allen Webster and Rubby de la Rosa (as well as Ivan deJesus and Jerry Sands). I don’t think we had ever seen a trade like this, where a team takes on every bad contract from another team. The Dodgers acquired Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto, and Carl Crawford from the Sox. A few days earlier, they acquired Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins for well-regarded pitching prospect Nathan Eovaldi. Combined, those players the Dodgers acquired will earn about $76 million this season. That’s more than the entire payrolls of the Astros, Marlins, Rays,  Pirates, Athletics, Padres, Rockies, and Twins.

Then, the Dodgers signed Zack Greinke this offseason. Greinke will earn $21 million this season and begin the year as the Dodgers #4 starter. All told, there are 10 players on the Dodgers payroll who will earn $10 million or more this season.

But will they be successful?

Offensively, the Dodgers will begin the year weakened by the World Baseball Classic injury to Hanley Ramirez. He’s replaced in the order by Luis Cruz. Cruz’s double play partner is Mark Ellis. Neither player has a career OPS higher than .725. Ramirez’s career OPS is .866.

Elsewhere, it’s harder to argue against the Dodgers. Adrian Gonzalez is 30 years old. He had the only subpar season of his career last year, splitting time between Boston and LA. I’m wont to believe that he’ll bounce back this year, returning to the National League West, a division he is familiar with after playing in San Diego for five very productive years.

In the outfield, injuries are the concern. If Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier are healthy, they’ll give the Dodgers the NL West’s best outfield, hands down. Kemp is a potential 40/40 player, and personally, a guy who I’ve come around on after disliking him earlier in his career. Crawford was so awful during his one and a half seasons in Boston that you forget how skilled he is and how productive he was in Tampa. And while Ethier is terrible against left-handed pitching, his overall numbers and value are still good enough, when healthy, to make him a slightly above-average everyday starter. Certainly not a bad guy to have as a third outfielder.

Pitching is where the Dodgers could really excel, starting with the excellent Clayton Kershaw. After Kershaw are the question marks of Hyun-Jin Ryu and Josh Beckett. Ryu is a question mark because he’s never pitched in the U.S. Beckett is a question mark because he’s Josh Beckett. Greinke and some combination of Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly will round out the rotation. There’s certainly enough talent there, even if Greinke doesn’t pitch like Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, to be the division’s best staff. Especially with some useful bullpen pieces behind them, led by Kenley Jansen.

The question, to me, isn’t whether the Dodgers will win the division (I think they will), it’s whether they can compete with Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati and tomorrow’s team in the National League. If everyone is healthy and everyone plays to their actualized ability, I think they can. But I’ve talked about this before. It’s really hard to keep everyone healthy over the course of 162 games. And it’s really hard to expect no one to have a “down year.” The Dodgers are not a team built on depth. It’s hard to be built on depth when you’re paying 10 players over $10 million a year.

This is a playoff team. But the playoffs aren’t the goal in Chavez Ravine. I don’t know that money is going to buy real happiness, at least not in 2013. They might have been better off getting an R/V and driving to the Badlands.

Predicted Finish: 90-72

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Ben Revere


Potential Fatal Flaw: Long lines for the early bird special in the infield

Ceiling: 3rd in the NL East

Floor: 3rd in the NL East

Overall: If Delmon Young were a good person, or a good player, I’d say that his unavailability at the start of the year would hurt the Phillies, but I actually think it will help them. They’ll start the year with Ben Revere, John Mayberry, and Domonic Brown (who is as bad a fielder as Young for what that’s worth) in the outfield, and one would have to presume that will remain when Young is ready. Brown is long overdue for a real shot at being an everyday player. Though if there’s one impatient, bumbling manager in baseball who’s going to replace a talented, young hitter after an 0-for-4 day, with an old, unskilled white guy (Laynce Nix), it’s Charlie Manuel.

The infield is the weakness here. Save for 2002 (which was 11 years ago), Michael Young has been at or below replacement-level as a fielder. Without the benefit of the the designated hitter, the Phillies will play Young at third base, a position he is supremely unqualified to play. Offensively, Young swings at too many pitches, grounds into too many double plays, and at this point in his career, is merely a singles hitter. Last year his OPS of .682 placed him 128 out of 144 qualified hitters. Combine that with his awful defense, when he wasn’t DHing, and Young was worth 2 ½ fewer wins than a replacement level player. He’s the entrenched starting 3rd baseman.

Elsewhere, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return for the next installment of “As The DL Turns.” Utley hasn’t played in more than 115 games since 2009. Howard hasn’t been worth more than one win above replacement since that season. Howard played in only 71 games last year after breaking his leg in the Phillies 2011 postseason elimination game. And he was, in a word, bad.

Utley is 34. Young is 36. Howard is 33. Jimmy Rollins is 34. Behind them is Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen. In other words, not a whole lot of depth. And there’s no one in the Phillies really poor minor league system who can be of help in the immediate future.

In the rotation, the trio of Halladay, Hamels, and Lee is not what it once was, with the decline in Roy Halladay’s stuff. Halladay has lost average velocity on his fastball each of the last 3 seasons and is certainly coming off his worst year as a professional since he was 23 and pitching in Toronto. Now, Halladay is 35. There was much more hope for a bounce back from 23 year old Roy then there is for 35 year old Roy. Statistics aside, Halladay has not looked very good this spring either and frankly, could be done at this point, putting an end to a really great career.

Hamels and Lee are still great pitchers and will be the linchpins of any success that Philadelphia has this season. They’ll have to be. Behind them are Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan. The Phillies will need to get contributions from Howard and Utley, sure, but they will need Hamels and Lee to pitch their absolute best (which could net either an NL Cy Young) if they’re going to think about competing for a Wild Card berth.

They won’t compete for a Wild Card berth. Not even close.

Predicted Finish: 76-86

Texas Rangers Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Lance Berkman


Potential Fatal Flaw: Depth, Lack of

Ceiling: AL West Champion

Floor: Missing the playoffs

Overall: Josh Hamilton is gone. Michael Young is gone (and terrible…BUT A TOTAL PROFESSIONAL). Mike Napoli is gone. Colby Lewis is hurt. Neftali Feliz is hurt. Nelson Cruz is, well, he’s not hurt. Yet.

Make no mistake, this is not the Texas Rangers team who won consecutive AL pennants. They’re still good, but, they need everyone to stay healthy to have a chance to earn a playoff spot.

We’ll start in the rotation. Ever heard of Nick Tepesch? Great. He’s the fifth starter because of the aforementioned injuries to Lewis and Feliz (as well as to Martin Perez). Behind Tepesch? Uh…I guess that Robbie Ross could start.

Tepesch is joined by Yu Darvish, who I think will improve off of a solid rookie campaign, Matt Harrison, who you’ll remember was an All-Star in 2012, Derek Holland, who is nowhere near as good of a pitcher as he is perceived to be, and Alexi Ogando, who as of this moment is not on the disabled list, but who knows, right?

Holland is by far the weakest link of that group, assuming all are healthy. Ogando is a really good pitcher. In his one year as a starter, 2011, he made 29 starts, and posted a 1.13 WHIP and a K/BB ratio close to 3. He made the All-Star team, for what that’s worth. Harrison pitches to contact perhaps a little too much, but it hasn’t hurt him too badly. Darvish could be your AL Cy Young Award winner this season. He’s a strikeout artist who just needs to cut back on his walks. If he does that, he’s good enough to be the Rangers’ Justin Verlander.

If you’re looking for a Nick Tepesch scouting report, you read the wrong blog, though you already knew that.

Offensively is where I think Texas struggles a bit more this season. The top of the order, with Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, and Adrian Beltre is really good. All of them are arguably the best player at their position in the American League. It’s the rest of the lineup that’s a problem. Lance Berkman, if healthy, should excel in Texas as a full-time DH. Say what you want about the less-than-fit Berkman, but when healthy, he’s still a very useful bat. The outfield is the problem. You’ve got David Murphy, who is best served as a platoon player because of his struggles against lefties, Nelson Cruz, who is another guy that is perceived as better than he is (career .268/.328/.494) hitter who has played only one full-season in his career (2012), and Leonys Martin, who has 54 career at-bats.

The Rangers are a playoff team. I don’t think that’s changed. But I don’t think they’re a very good playoff team. The starting pitching will carry this team, led by Darvish who will be right there with Justin Verlander and John Lackey for the AL Cy Young (JOKES!). Offensively, there’s enough at the top of the order to take advantage of the home park and score enough runs to win some games. But I don’t see a long run in the Rangers this year.

Predicted Finish: 86-76

San Francisco Giants Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Not applicable


Potential Fatal Flaw: Many more than you’d think from a World Series Champion

Ceiling: NL Wild Card

Floor: Not in the playoffs

Overall: This is not a criticism of the 2012 World Series Champion Giants, but it’s worth remembering, always, that the team that wins a championship is not necessarily the best team.

Major League teams play 162 games to enter a fairly random, small sample-filled tournament. The Giants were the third best team in the National League in the 162-game season. History will show though that the Giants were the “best team” in baseball because they won the tournament after the six-month slog.

The point of this diatribe is that the San Francisco Giants think of themselves as the best team from 2012. So good, in fact, that they did not sign a single consequential free agent this offseason. The Giants did not try to improve, potentially because they don’t think there’s room to improve. They’ll come to find that their thinking is wrong.

Offensively, the Giants are led by the great Buster Posey. Posey is a terrific catcher and a terrific hitter. He’s one of the brightest stars in baseball. And the Giants will need him to win the NL MVP again, or at least play like the NL MVP, if they are going to make a run at the NL West.

Now, the Giants did, in fact, sign a free agent this offseason. That is to say, they re-signed a free agent. That free agent is a 36-year old  second baseman with a career .731 OPS. They signed this player, Marco Scutaro, to a 3 year, $20 million deal. Because that’s what you do when 36-year old second basemen with career .731 OPSs win the NLCS MVP (Fyi, Scutaro was 7-for-36 in the other two postseason series last year).  

San Francisco also didn’t see it logical to sign a free agent starting pitcher. No, they’re going to go into this season with Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito in their starting rotation, even though they posted 67 and 84 ERA+s respectively in the 2012 regular season. Or, if you like old fashioned ERA, 5.18 and 4.15.

But Lincecum and Zito were saviors in the postseason, so surely they’ll just pitch this regular season like they did last postseason. Surely not like they did during the regular season. Oh, it’s worth noting that Lincecum was a postseason savior while pitching in an entirely different role out of the bullpen.

The 2010 San Francisco Giants won the World Series. That offseason, they didn’t sign a consequential free agent and, despite winning 86 games, missed the 2011 postseason.

I see a repeat happening in 2013. Complacency, especially flawed complacency, rarely benefits anyone. The Giants played in an NL West that was down last year. The Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks are all better teams coming into 2013. A few fewer wins in the 162 game season won’t get San Francisco to the postseason in 2013.

Predicted Finish: 84-78

New York Yankees Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Brennan Boesch


Potential Fatal Flaw: All of the injuries they’ve already piled up


Ceiling: .500 baseball

Floor: Last in the AL East

Overall: It’s perhaps fitting that I’m writing this post on a day where I’ve spent my time in bed, in the bathroom, and at the doctor’s office. Because the current New York Yankees are strikingly similar to my day. Mostly the bathroom part.

The Yankees offseason was spent not spending any money on high-priced free agents or trading for the poor teams’ impending free agents. In other words, it was the most un-New York Yankees offseason in recent years.

The New York Yankees are old. Or aging. The plus-side for Yankees fans is that the minor league system is very good at the top with Gary Sanchez and Mason Williams. The down-side is that neither Sanchez or Williams will see the Majors for another two years.

The Yankees Opening Day lineup is going to be a bit of a mess. Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson will all start the year on the DL. That leaves Juan Rivera, Kevin Youkilis, Vernon Wells, and Eduardo Nunez to start alongside Brett Gardner, Ichiro, Francisco Cervelli, Travis Hafner, and Robinson Cano.

You’ll notice that Brennan Boesch was not included despite being the Yankees biggest offseason acquisition. Baseball being what it is, Vernon Wells, the Yankees most recent acquisition, will likely get the Opening Day start over Boesch. Boesch is as streaky a hitter as you’ll find and he’s coming off of a disastrous season in Detroit where he put up a .659 OPS. HIs 2011, though, was much better, with a .799 OPS.

It’s at this point that I realize that I just wrote a paragraph about Brennan Boesch in a New York Yankees preview.

In most cases, you could argue that the pitching might be able to sustain the club during the offense’s healing process, but I just don’t see it. CC Sabathia has made only one Spring Training start so far and might not be ready for Opening Day. That leaves Hiroki Kuroda, 52-year old Andy Petitte, and Phil Hughes. Kuroda is a good pitcher. Because he pitched in New York, and wasn’t a disaster, everyone talked about a 16-11 pitcher with a 1.16 WHIP like he was the second coming of Whitey Ford. Kuroda is a good pitcher. But he’s not the type of pitcher who is going to carry a team.

I’ve talked a lot about how bad I think the AL East is. I think the New York Yankees might be the worst team in a batch of regressed teams (outside of Toronto). It’s possible that New York never gets to full strength this year. I think we’re about to witness the end of the Yankees era of success.

Predicted Finish: 71-91

New York Mets Preview

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BIggest Offseason Acquisition: Shaun Marcum


Potential Fatal Flaw: Being the Mets


Ceiling: 4th place in the NL East

Floor: Second worst team in baseball

Overall: If you came here looking for an in-depth preview of the New York Mets, I apologize. Truthfully, as I’ve gone through this random selection of teams, I’ve put off writing the Mets preview because it didn’t seem like a fun exercise.

I personally want the Mets to be good. Some of my favorite baseball memories are driving to Queens from Massachusetts to see the Mets at Shea Stadium. I loved the mid-2000 Mets. They had my favorite player, Carlos Beltran, my favorite pitcher, Pedro Martinez, and a group of players I really enjoyed watching (Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, David Wright). I loved how awful Shea Stadium was. I loved the red apple in the magician’s hat. I loved the enthusiasm. I loved Mr. Met. I loved Cow Bell Man.

All of that waned in 2006 when Carlos Beltran stood at home plate in Game 7 against the Cardinals and watched Adam Wainwright’s curveball as it crossed perfectly across home plate. I went back to Shea only once after that. Once in a while, when I need a royal blue undershirt, I’ll put on my Jose Reyes jersey-t. But that’s the only way you’d ever know that there was a 3 year period in my life where I rooted for the New York Mets. Well, that and the framed panoramic photo of Shea Stadium I have.

In 2008, I moved to Washington, DC and, soon after, started rooting for the Nationals. I think of the Mets as an ex-girlfriend now. She wasn’t right for me. I was young. She had peaked and was about to get involved with some shady characters. But we parted amicably and I really want her to be happy, even though I know I’m better off with my current wife. And so it bothers me a little bit to have to write about how bad the Mets are. Because they’re very bad.

David Wright signed a long-term extension this offseason for some reason. He’ll likely be a Met for his entire career. A free agent Wright could have gone basically anywhere, but he only wanted to be in Queens. That’s admirable. It’s probably not smart though.

New York has done very little to build around Wright during this period of futility. There’s likely 2013 #5 starter Matt Harvey, who should be a long-term top-of-the-rotation fixture. And there’s top prospect Zack Wheeler, who should be in the Opening Day rotation next year. And the Mets did acquire oft-injured catcher Travis d’Arnaud in the R.A. Dickey trade. Past that, there’s no one in the system who could make a big impact until 2015 at the earliest.

So David Wright will go to battle with Colin Cowgill, Lucas Duda, Marlon Byrd, Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy, and John Buck this year.

In the rotation, there’s really nothing to hang your hat on. Johan Santana is so done that the Mets would be better off bringing El Duque back. Jon Niese would be a solid number 4 on most teams. Instead, he’ll take the ball on Opening Day this year. Shaun Marcum is a decent pickup, only because he’s an upgrade over Jeremy Hefner.

I won’t continue to kick the Mets when they’re down. And I won’t jump on the bandwagon when they’re good again, whenever that is. I just want the Mets and their new partner to be happy together. 2013 just won’t be their year.

Predicted Finish: 60-102

Kansas City Royals Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: James Shields


Potential Fatal Flaw: Starting pitching

Ceiling: AL Wild Card

Floor: 4th in the AL Central

Overall: I’ve become famous, in my own mind, for overselling the Kansas City Royals. Every year seems like it’s going to be “the year” that the fans of Kansas City get to watch their team finally put it all together and make a serious run at the playoffs.

And every year, I’m wrong.

The Royals have done a terrific job of building their team through the draft. Unfortunately, that hasn’t paid dividends. Instead, the Royals have been fairly unlucky. Injuries have side-tracked top pitching prospects Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery in recent years. That left Kansas City with a few holes to fill in the rotation, especially at the top, where they have been “led” in recent years by Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis.

So Kansas City went out and took a huge risk this offseason. It was an out-of-character move for an organization that had played it safe for years, sitting on their very good farm system, waiting for those players to develop. The Royals traded their top prospect, Wil Myers and upper echelon pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi to the Tampa Bay Rays for James Shields. Trading two prospects of Myers’ and Odorizzi’s caliber is a huge gamble when you’re getting back a pitcher, like Shields, who is perceived to be a better pitcher than he actually is. Shields is a very durable starter. He hasn’t started fewer than 30 games since 2006. And he’s developed into a legitimate strikeout pitcher. But the other metrics tell a different story. His park-adjusted ERA (ERA+) is 107 for his career (think of 100 as an average mark and 110 being the line of demarcation for a “good” pitcher). He gives up a lot of hits, which contributes to the career WHIP of 1.22. Neither of those numbers are “ace-like.” They’re good, certainly, but they’re not really the numbers you want from a 31 year old pitcher who you had to give up two high-level prospects to get.

The other offseason pickup for Kansas City is Ervin Santana. Ervin Santana is another perception pitcher. I think when people hear the name “Ervin Santana” they think he’s a good pitcher because he’s a recognizable name. But outside of his 2008 season, Santana has been a league-average, or worse,pitcher. Last year, Santana was awful in Anaheim. He gave up a career-high 39 homers. He only struck out 133 batters (in 30 starts), and he racked up a 1.27 WHIP. He’s being slotted into the #2 spot in the Kansas City rotation and the expectations, I think , are that he’ll pitch like a number two starter. Which could be troublesome.

The rest of the rotation (Bruce Chen, Jeremy Guthrie, and Wade Davis) is not worth much paragraph space. So I won’t waste it.

Offensively is where I think the Royals can really excel. Yes, they’re giving Jeff Francoeur (truly one of the worst players in baseball) 600 plate appearances this season. That’s going to hurt. But elsewhere, the Royals are exciting and young. And good.

Eric Hosmer was an exceptional hitter last season. Unfortunately, the season I’m talking about is the 2012 spring training season. During the regular season, he was awful. His swing was different. His approach was poor, and his numbers reflected that. He’s back to tearing up Cactus League pitching this spring training, but the swing looks better. I really think he’s going to join forces with Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, and Salvador Perez to form the most exciting young lineup in the American League. Royals games are going to be exciting in 2013. And they’ll need the offense, and especially the 23 year old Hosmer, to carry the team. Because the pitching won’t.

The AL Central is a tough division, maybe the best in the American League. Cleveland is much better and the AL Champion Detroit Tigers are improved too. Kansas City probably slots into the 3-spot in the division. But if the offense steps up its game and James Shields pitches like he did in 2011, Kansas City could surprise a lot of people and earn a spot in the playoffs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Repeatedly.

Predicted Finish: 82-80

Cincinnati Reds Preview

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Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Shin-Soo Choo


Potential Fatal Flaw: Being managed by Dusty Baker

Ceiling: NL Central champion

Floor: Taking a vacation in Early October

Overall: Cincinnati was involved in one of the more peculiar offseason trades. They traded a shortstop prospect to Arizona, Arizona traded their top prospect Cleveland, and Cleveland traded an aging corner outfielder to Cincinnati. Cleveland was the clear winner in that trade. Arizona gave up a lot of upside for a guy who will probably be their shortstop for a long time, but won’t win many Silver Sluggers. Cleveland gave up a 30 year old outfielder for an elite pitching prospect, and Cincinnati traded a solid defensive shortstop for a guy they’re going to try to play out of position (it’s worth mentioning that Cincinnati also gave up Drew Stubbs in the trade. No wait. It’s not.).

The plus side is that if Shin-Soo Choo doesn’t work out in center (he won’t) there’s Chris Heisey. Heisey is a capable enough player who could probably have moved into centerfield on his own. That would move Choo to left, taking over for Ryan Ludwick, who had his first productive season in 2012 since 2008. I don’t expect that to continue. You know, because of logic.

It’s an error on my part to not mention Joey Votto until now. There’s no player I’d rather have at the plate for one at-bat than Votto. And yes, I’m very fond of walks, because there’s nothing wrong with a good walk. Votto walked 94 times last year and struck out 85 times. He was on-base 47% of the time. Votto, for whatever reason, gets some criticism (probably not the correct term. Detractors is more appropriate) because he isn’t a true power hitting first baseman. That’s, of course, incredibly stupid. Give me a team full of guys who get on-base 47% of the time and I’ll probably win a championship or two.

On the mound, Cincinnati is led by Johnny Cueto, who, despite not being a true strikeout pitcher, has developed into a true #1 starter. The high WHIPs of his early career appear to be a thing of the past, as he’s done a great job of throwing more strikes.

For Cincinnati, the biggest storyline this offseason wasn’t the trade for Choo, it was who was going to be their fifth starter. The Reds signed highly coveted Cuban fireballer Aroldis Chapman in 2010. Most people assumed they would develop him into a starter. Chapman has made 137 appearances in his career and exactly 0 starts. This week, the Reds announced that he would close this season, giving the fifth spot in the rotation to Mike Leake. This is a mistake, of course. For as good as Chapman has been as a closer, his value would be that much higher as a 25-30 start pitcher. Of course, he wouldn’t continue throwing 103 MPH fastballs. He’d probably have to work in the 97 MPH range. That speed is still more than viable and with Chapman’s slider as an out pitch, there’s just not a lot of sense in having him throw 65 innings.

The move of Chapman to the bullpen relates to the fatal flaw, as well as the wrap-up of this section. The Reds are managed by Dusty Baker. Baker is historically rough, as a manager, on starting pitchers. There’s not a lot of rotational depth for Cincinnati. Frankly, the rotation isn’t great after Cueto and Mat Latos. An injury to one starter puts the Reds in a real bind. The offense is certainly good enough to contend, which they should do. I just don’t know that there’s enough rotational strength to get anywhere beyond a division crown.

Predicted Finish: 86-76