Predicted Finish: 74-88

(TWO EDITOR NOTES: 1.) Rymer Liriano is an outfielder. I’m not sure why I thought he was a shortstop. 2.) Rymer Liriano is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. This concludes your Rymer Liriano-related updates. Thanks to Matt for the corrections.)

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Torii Hunter

Potential Fatal Flaw: The bullpen

Ceiling: World Series champion

Floor: AL Wild Card

Overall: The biggest difference between the AL Champion 2012 Detroit Tigers and the preseason 2013 Detroit Tigers is that Delmon Young has been replaced by Torii Hunter. It’s the difference between an Applebee’s 2-for-$8 cut of “Angus” steak and a good restaurant’s $28 NY strip. The NY strip isn’t going to be the best thing you’ve ever eaten, but at least it’s not smothered in “garlic ranch mushroom alfredo sauce.” Flavortown.

The 2012 Detroit Tigers weren’t really broken, so there was little need to fix anything and GM Dave Dombrowski didn’t try. Make no mistake, this club is improved by the subtractions of Young and Jose Valverde and the addition of Torii Hunter.

With the Tigers, you have to start at the top. No team has a better batter/pitcher pair than Detroit does with Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. Every year, they’re both the favorite to win the MVP and Cy Young award. They’re excellent at what they do, even if I resent both (one because he’s a terrible defender and for his previous proclivity to drive drunk and the other because he dates America’s greatest creation, Kate Upton).

The role players and other rotational players are the key in Detroit though. Austin Jackson, who probably exceeds the “role player” tag has developed into a real threat out of the leadoff spot, now that he’s cut back on his strikeouts. It’s essential that he keeps up his on-base ability because there’s frankly not a lot of that in Detroit’s lineup. He’s key to the success of Cabrera and Prince Fielder, and thus, Detroit. Victor Martinez’s health (or lack thereof) is another key to Detroit’s success. Martinez didn’t play one game in 2012. He’s played in over 100 games only three times since 2007. When he’s in the lineup, especially now that he can DH exclusively, he’s one of the league’s most underappreciated hitters. He gets on-base consistently. He’s got pop in his bat. He doesn’t strike out. He’s just kind of wonderful. When healthy.

The overall staff is excellent too, 1-5. Doug Fister is also a really underappreciated pitcher. He doesn’t have Justin Verlander’s stuff. Very few people do. But Fister, like Victor Martinez, does the other important stuff well. His WHIP is always fairly low (career 1.18, not off the charts, but very nice), he doesn’t walk a lot of hitters, doesn’t give up a lot of home runs. He’s just a good pitcher. Then there’s Max Scherzer, who has such electric stuff. I don’t think he’ll ever hit his ceiling, which I would say was probably a top-20 pitcher. He walks too many hitters. But when Scherzer’s on (and he’s on more than he is “off”), he’s a great 3-4 starter.

In the offseason, Detroit signed Anibal Sanchez to a contract that will keep him in the Motor City until 2018. There was some scoffing at the length and money involved in the deal, but Sanchez is a reliable arm. The stuff is different, but he’s like Edwin Jackson. You can plug him in every fifth day, he’ll have a clunker every now and then, he’ll come close to a no-hitter other times, and fill in the middle with reliable starting pitching. You could do a lot worse than Anibal Sanchez as your 4th starter.

The bullpen is the issue in Detroit. Right now, Bruce Rondon is the likely closer. And there’s been a lot of fun poked at Rondon. The funny thing with bullpens though is you really can’t project bullpen success. Guys who have it can lose it like that. And a lot of guys who are perceived to have it (Heath Bell is a great example) get exposed, crash, and burn. Bullpens are tough. So when I hear people say that Detroit is silly for going into the season without a “proven closer,” I laugh. Because, you know what, no one ever knows. Craig Kimbrel went to Wallace State Community College. Now, he’s the best one-inning pitcher in baseball, coming off of probably the greatest relief season ever. And tell me if you “knew” he was going to do this. You never know.

That said, if one thing is going to hold Detroit back from making it to another World Series, the most likely culprit would be their bullpen. But you can say that for a lot of teams. And you never really know until you get into those 5 or 7-game series in October.

Predicted Finish: 92-70

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Mike Napoli

Potential Fatal Flaw: Not having enough good players

Ceiling: They make a run at a Wild Card berth

Floor: They make a run at last place in the AL East

Overall: (We’re at the halfway point in the season previews, once this one is done.)

I don’t know what the Red Sox are doing. I’d say they’re rebuilding, but you don’t sign Jonny Gomes to a two-year deal if you’re rebuilding. And you don’t give Shane Victorino a 3-year, $39 million deal if you’re rebuilding. This is not Shane Victorino of the “Flying Hawaiian” variety. This is the Shane Victorino who hit .255/.321/.383 last season (with a .296 on-base pct. against right-handed pitchers). And he’s 32.

The Napoli deal (1 year, up to $13 million with incentives) I do like. That’s the kind of stopgap move you make if you’re flush with cash, but also looking to rebuild. A move to bide time until your farm system is ready (the most likely move is top prospect Xander Bogaerts to third, and current third baseman Will Middlebrooks to first).

Boston’s “big” offseason pitching move was to add Ryan Dempster. I don’t really think he’s going to be a difference maker, especially in a rotation that almost requires John Lackey to be a part of it. And especially moving full time to the American League.

A lot has to go right for the Red Sox to be successful in 2013. In fact, I wonder what the 2013 expectations are for management (the off-the-record expectations, not the “World Series Onward!” Spring Training spin). If they think of themselves as a playoff team, they’ll need Jacoby Ellsbury to play 150 games. They’ll need David Ortiz to hit 30+ homers. They’ll need Jon Lester to put it together. They’ll need Clay Buchholz to lay off the fried chicken (I can’t resist). They’ll need John Lackey to win 15 games.

Can it happen? Boston fans know that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. but, heavens, I would not like to take that bet.

I’ve said this previously, but it’s worth reiterating: the AL East is a regressed division. The Yankees, who we’ll get to eventually, are not a playoff team. And I’ve already said that I don’t think the Rays are built to win this year. Toronto is much improved, but there are lots of questions there. And Baltimore is, contrary to what people in Charm City will tell you, not the 1927 New York Yankees.

Ultimately, Boston’s 2012 struggles carry over into 2013. The characters might be different, but the results will be roughly the same. And even if they’re worse,  I don’t think anyone will be calling for Bobby V’s return.

Predicted Finish: 73-89

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Michael Morse

Potential Fatal Flaw: Being not good enough to compete in their division

Ceiling: Third place in the AL West

Floor: Fourth place in the AL West

Overall: The future is bright in Seattle. There are a number of top and mid-tier prospects, from high-ceiling (pitcher Taijuan Walker) to easily projectable (catcher Mike Zunino) who will be arriving in the next two years and could very well form the core of the next Washington Nationals, so to speak.

Great teams are built on pitching. For all the excitement the Colorado Rockies generated in the mid-90s, because of their run-scoring ability, remind me how many World Series titles they won. The answer is zero.

Seattle is building a team that will be built on pitching, led by Felix Hernandez, who they signed to an extension this offseason through the 2019 season. If we’re talking about a rotation with Hernandez, Walker, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton (if he develops a useful changeup), I’m on board.

The 2013 Seattle Mariners have improved to some extent, but I think much of that improvement talk is exaggerated a bit. Seattle is always going to have trouble scoring runs at Safeco Field. The park was last in runs scored in 2012, second to last in homers, and last in hits. Much of that has to do with how bad Seattle’s offense was. But even in their historic 116-win 2001 season, Safeco was still second to last in runs scored. The park is too expansive to build a team around offense.

And so while the offense is improved on paper with the additions of Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales, I don’t expect Morse’s power numbers to sustain at the level they were in the previous two seasons in DC and Morales is a regressed player since his horrific leg injury. The lineup is improved, but it’s like trading-in your 2004 Mitsubishi Galant for a 2006 Mitsubishi Galant in 2013. You might think you look cooler in the later model Galant, but it’s still a seven-year-old Mitsubishi.

Seattle’s rotation features King Felix at the top and a cast of characters behind him. There’s Joe Saunders, who remains an employed Major League pitcher, despite not posting a WHIP below 1.30 since 2008 and striking out only 5 batters per 9 innings in his career (as a sidebar, I’d really like to have a son who I turn into a soft-tossing lefty. That’s where the money is at).

There’s also Erasmo Ramirez, who looked like a useful pitcher in 2012, Blake Beavan, who exists, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who is 32 years old, but has enough quality stuff to eat some innings and keep Seattle in some games this year.

Basically, you just read over 400 words for me to get to this: The Seattle Mariners will finish in fourth in the AL West this year. They won’t be exciting. They might not even be watchable. But they’re improving the right way.


Predicted Finish: 71-91

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: All of the Uptons.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Third base. Rotational depth. I’m nitpicking.

Ceiling: World Series champion.

Floor: .500 baseball team.

Overall: To be very clear, right off the bat, I don’t think they come even close to their floor.

You don’t just go out and acquire two-time All-Stars just entering their prime. At least, you shouldn’t if the other 29 GMs are doing their jobs well.

But that’s what Atlanta did. I talked about the Upton trade in my Arizona Diamondbacks preview. Arizona gave up on a 25 year old All-Star because they thought he looked lazy. Simple as that. With every passing day, that trade sounds more and more preposterous. There’s a lot to be said about the “lazy” tag in baseball. It’s almost always used to refer to black players (Justin and his brother BJ, most vocally). There exists a notion that if you’re supremely talented, like Justin and Bossman Junior, you should also play the game with the reckless abandon of Eric Byrnes. That notion is absolutely stupid. In professional football, supremely talented quarterbacks are taught to slide and run out of bounds to avoid injury. In baseball, we’ve come to expect our stars to be covered in dirt by 1:08 p.m.

Arizona’s short-sightedness was Atlanta’s huge gain in what was a transformative offseason in the Dirty South. Earlier in the offseason, the Braves signed BJ Upton to be their long-term centerfielder, likely unaware that they’d be pairing him with his younger brother. Combined with Jason Heyward, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a better outfield in the National League. And I say that with the utmost reverence and respect for the team located in the city that I live in. And for the team that employs Mike Trout.

Atlanta’s hole offensively is in the infield. Freddie Freeman is a sure thing. Not a great thing. But a really quality bat. At short, Atlanta fans are in for a treat as they’ll get to watch Andrelton Simmons everyday (you know, the Atlanta fans who actually show up to the park). The Dutch shortstop might not be the next coming of Nomar Garciaparra circa this at the plate, but in the field, there’s no one better in baseball. Simmons gets to everything and makes every throw. He’s a joy to watch. And then, there’s Dan Uggla who will drive you crazy with his 4-56 slumps, but will win you back when he looks like the second coming of Honus Wagner for two weeks. He is 33 and his power has certainly dipped (and he’s an atrocious fielder), but you could do a lot worse than Dan Uggla, at least offensively, at second. Trust me, lots of teams are trying to.

No, the hole is at third where Chipper Jones no longer resides. In his place, Chris Johnson, who is a terrible baseball player, and Juan Francisco, will try to platoon (Johnson v. lefties, Francisco v. righties). Juan Francisco is an abysmal hitter against lefties, but Chris Johnson is frankly not much better with a career .372 slugging pct. against left-handed pitchers and a sub-.300 on-base pct. Will it kill Atlanta to have an easy out every time through the lineup? Probably not. But when injuries add up (and they do over the course of 162 games), it’s sure nice to not have to give up 2 outs every time through the batting order. Or 3.

If Atlanta’s not going to win the NL pennant, I don’t think Chris Francisco or Juan Johnson will be the reason. It will be their starting pitching. The bullpen is obscenely good, so that will help. But I have my doubts when it comes to Paul Maholm, Mike Minor, and Julio Teheran, who, despite the hype, has never looked impressive in any of his 200 spot starts. And yes, I realize that he’s only 22 and it’s only 4 spot starts. Point being, if we’re going to compare the Nationals’ rotation to Atlanta’s, I like Washington’s more. You know what you’re going to get (barring injury) from all of Washington’s starters, save probably for Ross Detwiler, who could certainly regress some. In Atlanta, the surest thing is probably 37 year old Tim Hudson. Hudson is a great number 3 starter at this point in his career. But if we’re comparing staff aces, I’ll take Stephen Strasburg, thank you very much. And if you think that Kris Medlen is going to have a 1.57 ERA and a K/BB ratio over 5 again, I also have a lovely beachfront home in Sioux City with your name on it.

Ultimately, I think Atlanta gets to the NLCS and faces the Nationals. And ultimately, I think Washington’s starting pitching, 1-4, with a guy like Detwiler coming out of the pen, gets the job done.

That said, the NL East race, regardless of the fact that they’ll both make the playoffs, will be thrilling to watch. Two years ago, we were wondering who was going to challenge Philadelphia for division superiority. Now, I’m wondering how many years we’ll get of Atlanta and Washington slugging it out 18 times per year for division dominance.

Predicted Finish: 95-67

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Somehow not applicable.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Let’s just start with the pitching.

Ceiling: 4th place in the NL West

Floor: 5th place in the NL West

Overall: In 2007, the Colorado Rockies advanced to the World Series. It appeared to be the start of a long period of great success.

The Rockies have made the playoffs once since that season, losing in the NLDS in 2009 to the Phillies. Jim Tracy won the “Manager of the Year” award that season, which I add only to cite an example of how hilarious manager/coach of the year awards are.

That 2009 season was the ceiling for this era of the Colorado Rockies. Since that season, the team has been in a never-ending state of rebuilding. In 2011, they traded ace pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to the Cleveland Indians. Jimenez was 27 at the time and coming off a career year that saw him finish third in Cy Young voting with an ERA + (a means of measuring park-affected pitching) of 161 (trust me, that’s quite good. David Price’s ERA + last season was 149. He won the AL Cy Young.).

The point here is that the Colorado Rockies took a 27 year old pitcher with great stuff, coming off a career year, and traded him mid-season. Now, some (mostly idiots) would argue that they gave up on him at just the right time because Jimenez flamed out in Cleveland and doesn’t appear like he’ll ever re-establish himself as an elite pitcher. There are too many variables to draw that hypothesis though. AL vs. NL. Team defense. Organizational tweaks to mechanics and the like. I could go on.

The (real) point here is that the Colorado Rockies are not a well run franchise. They’ve turned years of futility into absolutely squat through the draft. Their first round picks are a who’s who of first round busts, since Troy Tulowitzki in 2005: Gregory Reynolds, Casey Weathers, Christian Friedrich, Tyler Matzek, Tim Wheeler, Peter Tago, Kyle Parker, Tyler Anderson, David Dahl. All but two of them (Matzek and Tago) were college players. None of them have been even remotely useful Major Leaguers. In fact, just for fun, here are just a few of the players drafted after Gregory Reynolds in 2006 (who they took with the second overall pick): Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, and Ian Kennedy.

Trades haven’t helped the Rockies much either. That Jimenez trade? It netted them Drew Pomeranz, Matt McBride, and Alex White. White doesn’t even play for the Rockies anymore. McBride has 81 plate appearances in his career and a robust (-1.1) career WAR. Pomeranz is in the running for their number five spot in the rotation.

It’s really hard to rebuild when you aren’t good at evaluating players. Colorado should be forever thankful for Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo signed a long-term extension with the Rockies a few years ago that will keep him in Denver until 2020.  At the very least, he gives them a building block to constantly pile heaps of garbage around.

This really is the same team from last year. They made no minor tweaks to what was a terrible team in 2012, save for bringing in the completely inexperienced (no, really, he’s never managed a team. Ever) Walt Weiss to pirate the ship. If Spring Training means anything (it doesn’t) you can anticipate lots of bunting. And losses. They can’t pitch and outside of Tulowitzki, Dexter Fowler, and Carlos Gonzalez (the latter in home games only because, splits) they won’t wow you with offense like the vintage Colorado Rockies.

This is a franchise with bigger concerns than succeeding in 2013. That’s not going to happen. I just wonder when they’ll be able to compete at all. Right now, I can’t see that far into the future.

Predicted Finish: 64-98

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Tom Gorzelanny. By default.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Just a slight lack of pitching skill. Or, you know, total.

Ceiling: They make a run at an NL Wild Card before ultimately falling short.

Floor: They fall short by late June.

Overall: The Brewers are a tale of two teams.

Offensively, the Brewers are good (#analysis). Much of that is attributed to the presence of Biogenesis Client Ryan Braun, who, if he wasn’t so terrible defensively, you could argue as being the best player in the NL. But Braun is a black hole in left. Or a worm hole. Or a sink hole. Whatever the hole is where a player is not good defensively.

Braun’s supporting cast is very much the same as last year. Rickie Weeks is going to hit between .190 and .230, he’ll hit 20 homers, and he’ll have two stints on the DL. Aramis Ramirez is going to Aramis Ramirez. He’ll probably spend some time on the DL too. As will Corey Hart.

A player to watch, for what it’s worth, is former Auburn standout Hunter Morris, who I think will eventually be the first baseman this season. Morris took a huge step forward at AA Huntsville last season, with a .357 on-base pct. and 28 homers (to go along with 40 doubles). Morris could be a big boost to a team that will need all the help its offense can give it. Because…

Their pitching is awful! Yovani Gallardo is a potential all-star, but after him, it gets dicey. Marco Estrada (at the age of 28 last season) put together a solid campaign, seeing his career WHIP plummet from where it was coming into the season. Estrada isn’t necessarily a power arm and I have my doubts that last year’s season is sustainable. He’s the number 2 starter.

Wily Peralta made his Major League debut last season (5 total starts) and was fine. His career minor league numbers don’t lend me to believe that he’s going to miss enough bats (or rather, keep enough guys off base) that he’ll be a long term fixture in the rotation.

At this point, I’ve written too many words about a team that isn’t really going anyway. Milwaukee’s farm system is fairly depleted. And outside of Ryan Braun, who could be suspended for PEDs at any moment, and Yovani Gallardo, they’re sort of a sloppy mess. They’d need everyone to stay healthy and max out to make the playoffs. I’m betting “no.”

Predicted Finish: 70-92