BIggest Offseason Acquisition: Denard Span.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Not applicable.

Ceiling: Runaway World Series champion.

Floor: National League Wild Card.

Overall: This is not a homer writing this. This is person with some modicum of baseball knowledge telling you that this should be the favorite to win the World Series.

The perceived “hole” in the Washington Nationals is that they don’t have a true lefty bullpen specialist, as though those are hard to find at the trade deadline. Look, there is no hole. You can pick out Danny Espinosa, but for the defense that he provides at second, I’ll take the between 15 and 20 home runs, thank you. Would I like to see him get on-base about 33% of the time? Yes, that would be lovely. Do I expect Ian Desmond to continue where he left off last season? No. But let’s be honest, even if he takes a step back from last year’s final line, he’s still a top 5 shortstop in the NL and, frankly, baseball.

If you want to talk about a lineup that has everything, it’s the Nationals. Speed at the top with Denard Span. On-base ability with Werth in the two hole. Bryce Harper’s power in the 3 spot. Ryan Zimmerman’s all-around approach batting cleanup. Adam LaRoche’s power in the 5 spot. And then rounding out the order, an All-Star shortstop, a second baseman with 20 homer ability, and a platoon of Kurt Suzuki and Wilson Ramos behind the plate. I mean, the Nats even have the best backup catcher in baseball, and it doesn’t matter who the backup is.

Oh, and then there’s the pitching. You know about that. It’s the same as last year, but with Dan Haren instead of Edwin Jackson. Dan Haren is their number 5 starter. And they added Rafael Soriano (needlessly, in my opinion) to the backend of the bullpen, just for good measure.

The 2012 Washington Nationals brought me such great joy. I spent a lot of money watching them play last year. Easily into the many hundreds of dollars. And it was worth every penny. Worth every 103 degree summer day. Worth every rainy Saturday. Worth every long line at Shake Shack (not true…I get to the park about 2 hours early to watch batting practice and not wait in line for Shake Shack. Like a boss).

Being in Richmond, Virginia for the one week that the Nats were in the playoffs was awful. I had tickets for the Jayson Werth walk-off homer game (Game 4) that I sold. I still have not watched that home run. Not being there hurt me emotionally. It frankly hurt more than turning on Game 5, with the Nats fully in control, as I did, and watching the collapse.

Scribes will posit that the collapse will have a carryover effect on the 2013 Nationals. Drew Storen will go the way of Brad Lidge. Or something. Bryce Harper will taste the sophomore slump, unlike Mike Trout. Or something. Stephen Strasburg won’t know how to pitch late into the season because of last year’s limit. And on and on and on. I won’t buy the “carryover” narrative.

This team is going to bring a championship to Washington, DC in 2013. And I will be there when they do.

Predicted Finish: 101-61

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Edwin Jackson. A proven innings eater on a team that needs some innings eaten.

Potential Fatal Flaw:  You are reading the Chicago Cubs preview.

Ceiling: They hover around .500. Everyone in Chicago gets excited by late April. They finish with 77 wins.

Floor: Last place in the NL Central. A reminder that the Houston Astros are no longer in this division, so that means slightly less than it had in years prior.

Overall: The 2013 Chicago Cubs are much closer to their floor than they are their ceiling. But things are likely on the up-and-up.

Signing Edwin Jackson will not make the Cubbies a contender in the NL Central, but it will give them a stable guy to throw out there every fifth day. Jackson is far from an All-Star. He will have 3-6 fabulous starts this season, 3-6 clunkers, and the rest will be okay. But he’ll throw 200+ innings. So there’s that.

The Cubs will need all the rotational help they can get at the start of the season, as they’ll be without Matt Garza (strained lat muscle) and Scott Baker (Tommy John recovery). Baker is a nice pick-up for Chicago. I’ve long been a big fan of Baker’s. He walks very few hitters (ignore the 2010 outlier season) and while he’s not exactly Justin Verlander, he’s also not quite Freddy Garcia, in terms of “stuff.”

Offensively, the Cubs didn’t make a lot of offseason alterations. Anthony Rizzo remains their best hitter (please take your Starlin Castro arguments elsewhere, thanks). Alfonso Soriano remains their left fielder. Other than Nate Schierholtz in right field (and try not to get too excited about him) this is the same team that finished 14th in the NL in runs scored and dead last in on-base percentage.

Like I said to begin this section, the 2013 Chicago Cubs aren’t going to end the curse of the “being the Chicago Cubs.” They’re just not a good baseball team. And frankly, there’s not a lot to get jazzed about this season. But they’re on the right track. They’ve drafted well (Albert Amora) and have done well in the international market (Jorge Soler). They’re on the come-up. It just might be an extended journey. Which is good because Cubs fans are nothing if not patient.

Predicted Finish: 64-98

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: The 2012 Miami Marlins. And RA Dickey.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Essentially being the 2012 Miami Marlins

Ceiling: World Series champions

Floor: .500 baseball team

Overall: Anything other than a World Series victory will be considered a failure for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Not since the Florida Marlins became the Miami Marlins all the way back in the previous offseason has a team so made over their roster.

That did not go so well for the Marlins and so they packed up and moved to Canada.

Young teams have the built-in luxury of, well, being young. When you’re young, expectations are tempered. The Blue Jays don’t have that luxury. They’re made up of mostly veteran players. There will not be any room for failure.

Toronto’s biggest upgrade is in the pitching department where they go from a 2012 opening day rotation of: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, Kyle Drabek, and Brett Cecil to a 2013 opening day rotation of: RA Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Romero. Are there question marks? Absolutely. Josh Johnson is always going to be a question mark because of his health. And Ricky Romero is a big question mark as well. If his 2013 is anything like his 2012, the Blue Jays won’t make the playoffs. Likewise if Josh Johnson misses time due to injury, the Blue Jays are in trouble. The depth beyond the starting five is limited.

Offensively, Toronto should be at the top of the league. There’s speed with Jose Reyes and Colby Rasmus. There’s power with Edwin Encarnacion and of course Jose Bautista. Add to that Melky Cabrera’s apparent new found ability to get on base and Brett Lawrie’s speed and defense and you’ve got a very good baseball team. On paper.

Do I think the expectations on the Blue Jays are fair? Absolutely. You don’t go out and acquire a new team full of All-Stars and Cy Young winner (yes, that’s meant to be singular) and expect to just be happy with a .500 season. But there are a lot of question marks and a lot of things have to go right that you wouldn’t necessarily want to bet your children’s college savings on. Like Josh Johnson’s arm staying intact.

I think in an AL East that has regressed mightily, the Blue Jays will win the division. But it probably won’t be enough to get them to the ultimate goal, unless all of the stars align perfectly. Which you’ve only got a 1-in-30 chance of happening.

Predicted Finish: 91-71

There is no big offseason acquisition.

Everything is a fatal flaw.

The home came without ceilings.

The floors are very deep.

The Houston Astros are, on paper, the worst team I have ever seen in my years of watching baseball.

The 2003 Detroit Tigers are the reference point for the 2013 Houston Astros. That team finished the regular season with 43 wins. I believe that this Astros team is worse than that.

It’s hard to start anywhere with Houston. The most positive thing is that in these years of abject futility, they have developed a pretty darn good farm system. With the first pick in last June’s draft they took Carlos Correa, a highly skilled shortstop from Puerto Rico. They’ll have the top pick again this year and will probably look to bolster their organizational pitching with a future starter (perhaps Stanford senior Mark Appel). There’s more in the system too. George Springer. Delino DeShields Jr. Jonathan Singleton.  But none of them are likely to get any playing time this season. That’s what makes these Astros so bad. They’re awful with no immediate hope. Usually, fans can rally around seeing a future star in a really down year, like the 2010 Washington Nationals with Stephen Strasburg. Or the Devil Rays with guys like BJ Upton back when they were still devilish bad.

Houston doesn’t have that luxury this year.

Lets start in the outfield. Projected starters: Justin Maxwell (failed Nationals prospect from a few years back….304 OBP last year with Houston), Fernando Martinez (failed Mets prospect from a few years back……300 OBP last year with Houston), and JD Martinez (serviceable fourth outfielder on some teams…..311 OBP last year with Houston). JD Martinez is one of the Astros’ two best players.

In the infield, it’s Jose Altuve (5’5” second baseman and de facto Houston All-Star last year despite a .340 OBP with 7 HR and a slugging pct. under .400) and some other guys. Those guys are Brett Wallace, Tyler Greene, and Matt Dominguez. You’re forgiven for being a little confused here.

In the rotation, the bright spot is Phillip Humber who threw the flukiest perfect game in Major League history last season. He’s joined by some other guys, including Jordan Lyles, who I’ll likely write about later this season when I put together my “Irrational Love” team of guys I like for no explainable reason.

And if all of this wasn’t enough to sell out Minute Maid Park, the Astros are moving to the AL West, where they’ll get to play 18 games each against the Rangers, Angels, Athletics, and improving Mariners  At the very least, that’s probably 2 games (minimum) against Felix Hernandez. And they’ll get to play the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Rays, etc. 6 times each.

But hey, their new (old) logo is pretty cool. As is their new manager, Bo Porter. Bo comes from the Nationals where he was the third base coach under Davey Johnson. I like Bo. I’ll be rooting for Bo. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Bo is about to know futility. Perhaps of the historic kind.

Predicted Finish: 41-121

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Michael Bourn. Though, flip a coin. It might be Trevor Bauer. Or Terry Francona.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Complete and utter lack of pitching depth.

Ceiling: AL Central champion.

Floor: A pretty high draft pick in 2014.

Overall: The Indians went from being managed by Manny Acta, very easily one of the more inept in-game managers to Terry Francona, two-time World Series champion, despite having to manage the personalities of Curt Schilling, Manny Ramirez, Kevin Millar, Pedro Martinez, and Derek Lowe at the same time. Probably explains the baldness.

Cleveland had the most fascinating offseason. They did what teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh should have done: signed players. Teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh can’t argue that players don’t want to sign with them when Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher go out and sign with the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland wasn’t complacent and I think it will really aid them.

At every position where there’s a new starter this year, Cleveland improved. Nick Swisher slides into first base. If you find yourself chuckling “heh…Nick Swisher…that guy’s no good,” his average season from 2009-2012 saw him doing this: .267/.367/.482, 26 HR. Offensively, he’s been worth about 3 wins per season. And he’s consistent. Remarkably so. He’s an upgrade over the possibly deceased Travis Hafner (checking……nope. He’s still alive).

Mark Reynolds is a wholly incompetent fielder, but he hits home runs. He gets to be the DH here.

Cleveland took the declining and injury-prone Shin Soo-Choo and turned him into a 22 year old potential star in Trevor Bauer and a very good defensive outfielder (and very frustrating hitter) in Drew Stubbs. Pair all these guys with incumbents like Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jason Kipnis and you’ve got a good offense right? That’s what I thought.

Then, out of nowhere, the Indians sign Michael Bourn to a four-year deal, giving them the American League’s best defensive outfield.

(By the way, if you find yourself wondering why I care so much about outfield defense, remind yourself of my blog when Delmon Young is trying to chase down a ball in the gap at Citizens Bank Park that will inevitably be a leadoff triple.)

That’s the good stuff….

The bad stuff is in the rotation. Cleveland needs one of their starters to take a big step forward if they’re going to contend in the Central. That’s a lot of reliance on guys like Justin Masterson, Brett Myers (who beat his wife in Boston once and is a terrible human being for it), and Ubaldo Jimenez.

And so that’s really it for Cleveland. A lot of words to get to the conclusion that they’ll only go as far as their pitching takes them. If the Indians pitchers, including their bullpen, have a season like the Orioles did last year, Cleveland could win the division. I think they’ll get close.

Predicted Finish: 84-78

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Not applicable.

Potential Fatal Flaw: The expectations from a fluke 2012 filling everyone’s heads. And their pitching staff.

Ceiling: 2012 wasn’t a fluke and they earn an American League Wild Card berth.

Floor: They won’t be the worst team in baseball. But they will be the worst team in the AL East.

Overall: Maybe I’m being unfair to the 2012 Orioles. They did win a lot of games and did come close to making the ALCS.

Or maybe I’m being as fair as I should be. Maybe they won an unsustainable number of close games and their bullpen pitched way above realistic expectations and the stars aligned and all of that.

I’m leaning toward the second paragraph.

The reason why the Orioles do not have an applicable answer for “biggest offseason acquisition” is because they didn’t actually acquire anything of any consequence in the offseason. Which is a huge problem if you ask me.

Look, you don’t often hear people dole out the advice, “Complacency gets you places!” right? I’ve never been told that I’ll accomplish my career goals by just merely existing. That works for baseball too.

The 2012 Baltimore Orioles were just not a great baseball team on paper. They performed well-above expectations. They would say, “well not ours. We expected to be a playoff team.” That’s fine. That’s their job. But it’s also a General Manager’s job to find the flaws in his team and try to fix them. Like, say, starting pitching.

Look, the reinvented Jason Hammel is a fine pitcher. But he is not a staff ace. At least not for a team that thinks of itself, as the Orioles must, as a “contender.” Baltimore’s rotation confounds me in a lot of ways because it is made up primarily of the Orioles’ own failed prospects. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, and Chris Tillman were all once going to be the saviors of the franchise. All of them suffered through injuries and all of them, save for Tillman, are very low-upside pieces at this juncture.

It’s not all gloom for the Orioles though. The offense is good. In the National League, it would be one of the better offenses. In the American League, it’s just good. Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and phenom third baseman (but should be shortstop) Manny Machado form a really nice, relatively young, core. The other pieces around them are mostly complementary (JJ Hardy, Nolan Reimold…should he ever spend an entire year in a Major League lineup) but they’re good enough to get the job done and at least keep the Orioles relevant. I just wonder if the Orioles’ expectations at this point have moved past just “being relevant.”

Predicted Finish: 77-85

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Russell Martin. By default.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Clint Hurdle. Not one of baseball’s best in-game managers. I’m being polite.

Ceiling: They make the playoffs for the first time since Adam’s rib.

Floor: They continue being the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Overall: Someone in Pittsburgh thinks that last year’s team was one piece away from the playoffs. Unfortunately, they think that piece is Russell Martin.

I’m joking a bit here. Pittsburgh could be sneaky good. Remember, I predicted they’d win the NL Central last year. They didn’t, but they did surprise a lot of people. Andrew McCutchen is a star. Last year was a bit of a coming out  party for him and I don’t expect that to change this year. He will continue to be not only one of the best players on the field, but one of the most marketable young stars in the game. McCutchen does everything well. He’s a joy to watch.

The concern to me is that this team is remarkably similar to the one that wasn’t good enough last year. Clint Barmes is still their everyday shortstop. There’s not a lot behind Pedro Alvarez should he continue to be wildly inconsistent with his bat. Travis Snider and Starling Marte are the corner outfielders which really has to concern someone. I mean, Travis Snider has been one of the most frustrating young players in baseball for quite a while. You think he’s about to break out, then he goes 0-32 and gets sent to AAA. Marte is a perfectly fine fourth outfielder. He’s still young and will need to develop his approach at the plate from “swing at everything” to “take a walk every now and then.”

Save for the “loss” of Kevin Correia, the rotation is the same as last year. AJ Burnett, James “First Half” McDonald, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jeff Karstens are joined by Jeff Locke, a lefty with 10 starts in his Major League career and a propensity for base on balls. So, more of the same.

If there was one team in baseball that needed to do something this offseason, it was the Pirates. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh fans, they only brought in Russell Martin. I have a very hard time believing that free agents don’t want to come to Pittsburgh. I’d love to play alongside Andrew McCutchen. I’d love to play in that park, with those fans, in that great city. It really begs the question of whether the effort is there by the front office. If this offseason is any indication, it’s not.

I expect the 2013 Pirates to be very much like the 2012 Pirates. That is, still on the cusp. It’s just unclear what they’re on the cusp of.

Predicted Finish: 78-84

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Wil Myers. He won’t make the Opening Day roster and he might not be up with the big club until after the All-Star break, but the 22 year old Myers is just the latest example of a team rebuilding in the best of ways.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Offense. Outside of Evan Longoria, there is not much power in that lineup.

Ceiling: AL Wild Card.

Floor: They spend the year wallowing in mediocrity and don’t even sniff the playoffs.

Overall: The Rays are worse right now than they were last year. I don’t even know that you can debate the point. BJ Upton is gone. James Shields is too. Say what you want about Upton, but he’s more valuable than his batting average would lead you to believe. The Rays’ outfield defense takes a step back with him out of it. And the offense does too. Upton is one of only a few players in Major League Baseball with 30/30 potential every season. No, he’s not the most patient hitter, but he makes up for that with his blend of speed and power.

The loss of Shields has been kind of understated by a lot of the baseball analysts who I really respect. He’s not David Price, but he’s a big upgrade over Jeff Niemann or Alex Cobb. Long-term, the trade was a very good one for the Rays because they get a potential future star in Wil Myers. But for this year, it’s going to hurt them.

Tampa’s strongest weapon is the front-end of their rotation with reigning Cy Young winner David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and phenom Matt Moore. There’s an argument to be made that Tampa has the Major League’s best 1-2-3. I have real concerns though in relying on Jeff Niemann as a number 4 starter. If Tampa is going to be really successful this season, I think they’ll likely need a real contribution from Chris Archer, a young kid with a power arm, who frankly should be ready to pitch, as a starter in the big leagues at this point in his development.

Tampa’s biggest weakness is their offense. It’s not good. The Rays are going to need Evan Longoria to stay healthy for the entirety of the season if they’re going to earn a playoff spot in the American League. I have my doubts.

Tampa is going to take a step back this season. They’re still the best managed club in baseball. And they have an electric front end of the rotation and a solid bullpen. But they’re going to struggle to score runs. That’ll keep them out of the playoffs.

Predicted Finish: 75-87

Biggest Offseason Acquisition: Brandon McCarthy. In an offseason full of acquisitions, some of them good, most of them puzzling, McCarthy is a big pickup because he’s the kind of pitcher who can succeed at Bank One Chase Ballpark Field. Namely, a groundball pitcher. He bolsters an already strong and deep rotation.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Corner outfield defense. Jason Kubel and Cody Ross aren’t exactly Mike Trout and Ben Revere. The Arizona outfield is spacious and they’ll need a lot of help from rookie Adam Eaton in center to make up for those two black holes. Otherwise, Chase Field might lead the league in doubles.

Ceiling: Division winner.

Floor: 4th place in the NL West.

Overall: You have to start with the trades of Chris Young, Trevor Bauer, and Justin Upton. Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers, this offseason, said something to the effect of “we want gritty ballplayers.” I’m of the mindset that talent is a few times better than grit. Grit doesn’t get on base. Grit doesn’t throw strikes. Grit is just a buzzword that people who don’t understand the importance of statistical analysis use to describe white players who aren’t very talented. {Plug: Read this}

Trading Chris Young for Cliff Pennington isn’t terribly egregious. It’s not wise, but Young had pretty much maxed out in Arizona. Trading Trevor Bauer, a player the Diamondbacks took with the third pick in the 2011 MLB Draft for Didi Gregarious, a light-hitting shortstop prospect is egregious. The Diamondbacks didn’t like Trevor Bauer’s attitude. Or something.  Didn’t like that he wouldn’t throw strikes, or that he was in love with his curveball. Or something. Didn’t like that he raps (he is absolutely terrible at it). Or something. So they gave up on a 22 year old pitcher with #1 starter potential for a defensive shortstop who isn’t quite Major League ready. Not how you run a team.

But the Diamondbacks weren’t done with idiotic trades. They were able to turn one of the young stars of the game into Martin Prado. Prado is a really good ballplayer. Justin Upton, at the age of 25 (seriously, he’s only 25), is a 2-time All Star and Silver Slugger winner. Upton, at 25, is coming off a down year that saw him hit .280/.355/.430. Prado, in a good year, hit .301/.359/.438. And yes, the Diamondbacks got Randall Delgado in the trade as well. But when it comes to elite prospects, I’d rather have Bauer anyway.

The point of all of this is that I don’t know that the Diamondbacks know what they’re doing. They have a fairly good Major League team assembled. Their pitching is very good. And deep, with reinforcements like Tyler Skaggs and Delgado ready to take over any open spot in the rotation.

But I keep looking at that offense and finding myself increasingly underwhelmed. There are good hitters there, but not necessarily a good collection of hitters. There’s not a ton of power. There’s not a lot of on-base focused hitters. There are just a bunch of guys who can hit fairly well. The word is “underwhelming.”

Predicted Finish: 80-82

At the start of this year, I wrote a list of things I wanted to accomplish in 2013. One of them was to write a country music album. That one probably isn’t going to happen. Another was to compile my 100 favorite (not best) albums of all-time. I’m in the process of doing that, though I settled on the Top 50 instead. The easiest goal was to finally clean the adhesive off the inside of my windshield from the temporary inspection sticker that was there when I first bought my car. I still haven’t checked that one off the list.

There are two other things on my list and they are the most important. If you know me well enough, you know what one of them is. The other was to write at least one blog post per week. That’s 52 blog posts in one year. Not exactly an arduous task, but I’m already behind. But don’t worry! That average is about to get bumped up quite a bit.

Usually, my MLB previews are 3,000 word documents. I got lazy writing them somewhere around the Milwaukee Brewers.

This year, I’m going to post (not necessarily “write”) one post per day on each team. There will be absolutely no order as to who comes up in the cycle. Every day will be a surprise. We’ll start today with the Minnesota Twins.

Biggest Offseason Acquisition:Kevin Correia (SP). This is less about Kevin Correia, who hasn’t had a sub-4.00 ERA in three years pitching in the National League and more about the fact that Minnesota didn’t acquire anyone worth a darn. I was tempted to put Vance Worley here, but to get him, they gave up Ben Revere, who never impressed me with the bat, but whose speed is vital in an outfield with Josh Willingham holding down left field.

Potential Fatal Flaw: Depth. They’re already not good offensively anywhere but at catcher and left field, but if they happen to lose either Mauer or Willingham, they’re in trouble.

Ceiling: Just under .500 for the season, after Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau play 150 games this season and Josh Willingham hits 30 HRs.

Floor: Top 3 pick in the 2014 MLB Draft

Overall:The Twins are one of the worst teams in baseball on paper. They’re weak all over the diamond. I mean, their “Ace” is Scott Diamond. Mike Pelfrey is nearly guaranteed a spot in their rotation. There is not a single high-upside or power pitcher in their lineup.

The Twins value pitchers who throw strikes. Throwing strikes often means “pitching to contact” when you don’t have premium stuff. That’s this rotation. There’s not a single pitcher with 200 strikeout potential in there. Heck, I’d be surprised if anyone got to 150 strikeouts. And consider that three of their slated five starters are coming to the American League from the National League. They could be a disaster.

There’s certainly not enough offense to carry this team either. Ever heard of Darin Mastroianni? I’ll forgive you if you haven’t. He’s the Twins starting centerfielder. He doesn’t get on-base very often. He’s got some speed though, so there’s that.

Were you wondering where Jamey Carroll would be playing this year? He’s Minnesota’s starting second baseman. He’s hit 13 home runs in his 1200+ Major League games. Which would be fine if he was a great defensive second baseman. But he’s not. Take away his bizarre 2006 season in Colorado and he’s just about an average infielder.

The Twins have the minor league system to be successful in a few years. But with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton still a few years away, the Twins will have plenty of time to build through the draft.

Predicted Finish: 61-101