baseball

2018 MLB Preview and A Long Rant About Labor Practices

/ Jason / 1 Comment

This truly was the longest winter. Putting aside the frigid temperatures across the country and the large quantities of snow falling in the northeast and the mere existence of it in places like northern Florida, this winter dragged. From a strictly baseball standpoint, long periods of time elapsed between free agent signings.

Perhaps as a result of front offices being made up of savvy, economist-types (which is mostly a good thing), almost every team seemed to realize that, for many, many years, they had been paying players for past production. Jake Arrieta, the best free agent starting pitcher on the market, had to wait until the middle of Spring Training to receive a contract offer that he approved of. That contract, for a recent Cy Young award winner, was, essentially, a front-loaded 3 year contract (Philadelphia has two club options at $20 million each). It’s certainly easy to cherry-pick bad contracts, so let’s do that. Two years ago, the offseason following Arrieta’s Cy Young win, Mike Leake signed a 5 year deal worth $80 million. Another way to look at that is that Mike Leake received $5 million more in guaranteed money than Jake Arrieta. What other starting pitchers received more guaranteed money in that cycle (just 2 years ago!) than Jake from Not State Farm did this year? Funny you should ask:

Wei-Yin Chen
Jeff Samardzija
Jordan Zimmermann
Johnny Cueto
Zack Greinke
David Price

I count, at best, 2 guys there who definitely should have gotten paid more than Arrieta, based on expected future production at the time.

And Jake was not alone. Greg Holland saves a lot of baseball games. You can decide how important that sentence is to you. Still, last year he saved 41 games for the Colorado Rockies. He made the All-Star team. And he’s unemployed.

In years past, it is not an exaggeration to say that any one of 8 playoff-contending teams would have thrown 3 years in Greg Holland’s direction. Remember that 2015-16 offseason? Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, and Tony Sipp all received 3 year guaranteed contracts. None of those pitchers was coming off a season close to Holland’s 2017 season.

In that 2016 offseason, again, just 2 years ago, 8 players received contracts exceeding $80 million in total value. In this offseason, only 4 players received a contract with a total amount greater than $80 million (Eric Hosmer, Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton). Ironically, Justin Upton is on both lists (his 2016 contract had an “opt-out” clause).

The answer to the question, “Why this dramatic shift?” has little to do with the quality of the free agent class. No matter who the top free agents are, teams, in the past, were always more than willing to throw big money at bad ideas. Albert Pujols has been relegated to full-time DH on account of being old and very bad. You see, every single person ages and when you age, your skills diminish. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Anaheim California Angels, they didn’t take this into account when they gave Albert Pujols a 10 year contract in 2012 to congratulate him for all that he had previously accomplished with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Angels will be paying Pujols roughly $116 million over the next four seasons. Last year, Pujols was one of the absolute worst full-time players in Major League Baseball, posting an embarrassing .672 OPS and a sub-1.00 bWAR. In fact, Pujols hasn’t had an OPS of .800 or above since 2012, ironically when he was a St. Louis Cardinal.

“This is good news for me then!” you say, because you’ve been programmed to support your benevolent business overlords. “With teams spending their money more wisely, manipulating the service time of young superstars to gain an extra year of cheap club-control, I will pay less for tickets and concessions! Huzzah.”

Please, I implore you, let me know when your favorite team’s millionaire or billionaire owner decides that he has enough money and would like to give you a break on your night out to the old ballyard.

Rooting for the business interests of baseball will get you nowhere. You will not save money on your tickets. Your team will not “save” their money they didn’t spend in 2017-18 to spend big on a free agent like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. If you are a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins (ha), etc. your team will not be entering the Bryce Sweepstakes because they had the impulse control to not throw a four year deal at Greg Holland. The Ronald Acunas and Kris Bryants of the world will continue to be sent to AAA clubs for three weeks at the expense of the immediate on-field success of their team(s) to save some money 6 years down the road. The owner(s) of your favorite team will continue to use their teams as a money-making venture, because, and this may come as a shock, that’s what they are. While you think you’re rooting for a logo and a uniform, you’re really rooting for a rich man’s business venture. It’s like standing outside of a Target, chanting “We Will Rock You.” Poll all 30 ownership groups anonymously and ask a simple question: “Would you rather win a World Series and lose $50 million or miss the playoffs and turn a $50 million profit?” In short, start rooting for the laborers and not for the logos. In baseball, in the classroom, at construction sites. Everywhere.
——————-

And with that…..let’s preview the 2018 season.

AL EAST

Ah, nostalgia. Remember when the AL East was a two-horse race to the top and a three mule race to the bottom? Well, welcome back to the turn of the century! John Bolton’s got a government job again and the Red Sox and Yankees are battling it out for a division crown, while the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rays are in varying stages of “trying to stay afloat.”

The division crown should go to the Yankees who have the more reliable bullpen and a deeper pool of starting pitchers. Both offenses should score a lot of runs. The Yankees’ offense is probably a hair better, but I truly don’t think that’s where the difference lies. Both teams should win between 95-100 games, given that they’ll play more than 1/3 of their schedule against Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore.

1. New York Yankees 99-63
2. Boston Red Sox 94-68
3. Baltimore Orioles 80-82
4. Toronto Blue Jays 74-88
5. Tampa Bay Rays 62-100

AL CENTRAL

No team made more free agency splashes, it seems, than the Minnesota Twins, in that they actually got into the pool, signing Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed, while also trading for Jake Odorizzi.

Much like the AL East, this is 2-team race between Minnesota and Cleveland. The White Sox, Tigers, and Royals just do not have the pieces to compete this year. Kansas City, frankly, doesn’t have the pieces to compete any time soon.

I think Minnesota closed the gap on Cleveland a bit, but they still lack the starting pitching to get the job done as consistently as the Indians will with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. And that doesn’t even get into the 8th and 9th innings when Cleveland has Andrew Miller and Cody Allen and the Twins offer up the aforementioned Reed and Rodney.

1. Cleveland Indians 94-68
2. Minnesota Twins 89-73
3. Detroit Tigers 70-92
4. Chicago White Sox 65-97
5. Kansas City Royals 64-98

AL WEST

In trading for Gerrit Cole, the Astros sacrificed their future a bit to get better today. Keep in mind, this is still an organization with Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker at the top of their minor league rankings, so they’re not bleeding young talent by any stretch. No team in baseball is better constructed for 2018 playoff success than the Astros. The questions will likely lie with the bullpen, but this is a team with the resources to go out in July and improve their bullpen through trades.

Elsewhere in the battle for the second AL Wild Card spot…

Unlike the other two divisions, each team in the AL West has a legitimate chance to finish second and possibly get a Wild Card berth. Oakland has a vastly improved offense, but may struggle to keep other teams off the board. A similar story resides in Orange County, where the Angels brought back Justin Upton, brought in Ian Kinsler, and signed potential two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, but lack the starting pitching depth or bullpen to make anyone comfortable anointing them a playoff team. Seattle is probably the most balanced of the teams in this division. No aspect of the M’s will wow you, but there are no glaring red flags, save for depth in the rotation after Mike Leake. And Texas is a total wild card. A patchwork rotation. A lineup of mostly low-OBP mashers. A bullpen of taped-together balsa wood. I get the feeling Texas will either finish second or last. And I tend to think it’s the latter.

1. Houston Astros 103-59
2. Seattle Mariners 86-76
3. Oakland Athletics 82-82
4. Anaheim Angels 79-83
5. Texas Rangers 75-87

AL Playoffs

Boston over Minnesota in the wild card game because Chris Sale v. Minnesota-By-Committee is a battle Sale wins every time.

ALDS: Houston over Boston in 4, New York over Cleveland in 5

ALCS: Houston over New York in 5

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2017 ended frustratingly for the Washington Nationals. This is a fairly common refrain. Simply plug in a different year and the result remains both the same and true.

2018 will likely end in a similar fashion. The odds just sort of work out that way. For teams like the White Sox, your goal in 2018 is to keep your excellent young starting pitchers (Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, Michael Kopech, Dylan Covey, Alec Hansen, and Dane Dunning) healthy. That’s really it. You’d love for as many of those pitchers as possible to be healthy going into 2019 when the goal should be to sneak into the playoffs riding the arms of 4 or 5 electric mid-20s pitchers.

For a team like the Washington Nationals, 2019 doesn’t really matter. At the end of the 2018 season, franchise cornerstone Bryce Harper will be an unrestricted free agent. Lose Harper and you’re losing about 5-7 wins above replacement. You’re also losing a major attraction and a marketable young star. And you’re doing it at a time when you’ve bled organizational depth (past Victor Robles and Juan Soto) trying to put a World Series winner onto the field.

There will be some/many Washington Nationals “fans” who will expect Harper to take a hometown discount. Say the Nationals lose in the NLDS this season. Those “fans” will take nothing less than Bryce Harper accepting a one year deal to go for it one more time. And when he doesn’t take that one year deal, and instead signs a 7 year deal with ___________ (fill in the blank…it doesn’t matter), he’ll get booed when he comes back to DC. And that sucks.

The repeated failings of the Washington Nationals in the postseason (or rampant regular season success depending on through which prism you choose to view all of this), do not fall solely on the shoulders of Bryce Harper, just as it didn’t fall on the shoulders of Drew Storen or Jordan Zimmermann or whomever was the scapegoat in that Dodgers series (honestly, I forget). Everyone gets blame. Mike Rizzo gets blame. Davey Johnson, Matt Williams, and Dusty Baker get blame. And yes, each player gets a varying degree of blame.

Knowing that 2018 is essentially a “now or never” season (I prefer “shit or get off the pot” season), the Nationals remained largely inert during the winter months. There was no success in improving the starting pitching from 2017. There was no success in improving the bullpen (in fact, I think the bullpen as constructed today is slightly worse than the one from last October). And there was no success in improving an already very good offense, albeit not perfect and not the best in the National League. The Washington Nationals will take the field in Cincinnati, Ohio on Thursday (Friday…stupid rain) looking very similar to how they looked on October 12, 2017. Gone will be Jayson Werth. Healthy will be Adam Eaton. But that’s it. In theory, Gio Gonzalez will still start a potential Game 3 in the playoffs. Brandon Kintzler is still the 7th inning guy. Enny Romero is the best left handed option out of the pen (non-Sean Doolittle division). There’s a different manager in the dugout, and that should make the Nationals situationally better. But really, that’s window dressing. It’s the most important season in franchise history. And if that history is an indicator of what’s to come, well, set your radars to “disappointed.”

THE REST OF THE NL EAST

I sincerely think that the Philadelphia Phillies can make a run at the playoffs this year. I also think that no other team, even the White Sox, is poised to make the jump from bad to very good as quickly as Philadelphia. I loved the Jake Arrieta signing from a Philadelphia Phillies business perspective, because given the talent already on the field in South Philly and the talent scattered throughout their minor league system (but especially at High-A Clearwater), 2020 should be the year that Philadelphia contends for a World Series.

As for this year, there’s something to be excited about at nearly every turn for the Phillies. Though they overpaid for Carlos Santana, adding a high-OBP, top of the order hitter will only help the development of Rhys Hoskins. Elsewhere, the Phillies were not overly cautious with rookie Scott Kingrey, signing him to a long-term extension and putting him on the Opening Day roster. That should pay immediate dividends and give the new manager some flexibility in how he constructs his lineup day-to-day.

I’m excited to see what Gabe Kapler can do as the most advanced metrics-inclined manager we’ve seen in the modern game. If he succeeds, it will change dugouts across the sport. And if he fails, well, it’ll give the baseball dinosaurs one last opportunity to crow about the importance of moving runners and “the little things.”

Wrapping up this overlong capsule of the NL East, don’t expect the Atlanta Braves to contend in 2018, but look forward to the arrival of Ronald Acuna Jr. in mid-April and, further down the road, look forward to their battling with the Phillies for baseball supremacy in 2020.

The Mets and Marlins are also baseball teams. Though, in the case of the Marlins, the jury remains in deliberation.

1. Washington Nationals 91-71
2. Philadelphia Phillies 85-77
3. New York Mets 79-83
4. Atlanta Barves 78-84
5. Miami Marlins 44-118

NL CENTRAL

The Chicago Cubs are going to win this division. The amount of depth that the Cubs possess cannot be matched by any other team here. That goes for starting pitching. That goes for the batting order. It probably even goes for bullpen depth, though that’s more a result of no one in this division having a particularly strong and deep bullpen.

Chicago’s lineup is the best in the National League and I’d argue the best in baseball, 1-8. And there’s flexibility there. You have super-sub Ben Zobrist who can pinch hit and play at 6 different positions. Then there’s Albert Almora Jr. who would be a starter on nearly every other team in the Majors. On this team, he’s playing behind Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ in most situations, though he will fill in nicely for the former against left-handed starting pitchers. And at the corners, you’ve got the sport’s most dangerous 1-2 punch in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. And they signed Yu Darvish this offseason, as well as Tyler Chatwood, who I expect to be a big upgrade for them in the number 5 spot.

Up I-94, the Milwaukee Brewers made a number of changes, seemingly in the span of a few hours in January. Ryan Braun moves to first base to make room for Christian Yelich, acquired via trade from the AAA Miami Marlins. Meanwhile, Lorenzo Cain joined on a fairly baffling 5 year deal. The problem for Milwaukee is a pretty glaring one though and that’s a real lack of starting pitchers. Chase Anderson and Zach Davies are a perfectly fine set of Major League starting pitchers. They are not Yu Darvish and Jon Lester. They’re not Clayton Kershaw and literally any other living person. And yet, Anderson and Davies will need to perform beyond expectation to keep this rotation (rounded out by Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, and an injured Jimmy Nelson) afloat.

Also cashing in on the Miami Marlins being a living embarrassment were the St. Louis Cardinals, who added Marcell Ozuna, but still have a concerning lack of power in their lineup and, like Milwaukee, some real question marks in the rotation.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have no desire to contend this year, so we won’t talk about them. Likewise, their fans should not go to their games.

1. Chicago Cubs 99-63
2. St. Louis Cardinals 88-74
3. Milwaukee Brewers 84-78
4. Pittsburgh Pirates 69-93
5. Cincinnati Reds 65-97

NL WEST

Though their field flooded with human excrement on Tuesday night, everything else seems to be going mostly fine for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp is back and looks more like a baseball player and less like the assistant manager at an Arby’s. Yasiel Puig also looks like a fit human. Clayton Kershaw is still a Dodger, and other than a broken bone to Justin Turner’s hand, everyone else is healthy following a season that took LA within 27 outs of a World Series. This is LA’s division to run away with. Can anyone catch them?

Maybe.

But probably not.

The Diamondbacks are intriguing because they have five good starting pitchers. The Rockies are intriguing because they built a super bullpen and their hitters still get to hit baseballs in Denver 81 days per year. San Francisco is not terribly intriguing, though they added Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria to a team that scored roughly 45 total runs last season, so they can only be a help. And the San Diego Padres are currently slated to play the 2018 Major League season.

The fatal flaw for each is pretty obvious. Arizona is light-hitting, outside of Paul Goldschmidt. Take away JD Martinez’s mid-season acquisition and they were, statistically, a below average Major League team at the plate in 2017. They’re a team that will always hit a lot of doubles and triples because their ballpark is a comical place. But when it comes to home run production, without Martinez, they would have been a few notches below the Kansas City Royals last year. Note: JD Martinez was replaced in right field by Jarrod Dyson who has 12 home runs in his 1900+ career plate appearances.

Colorado’s fatal flaw is the only one that can’t be immediately fixed. What makes them so intriguing is also what makes them so scary to bet on. The Rockies have good young pitchers in Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland, and Tyler Anderson. The issue is that it’s hard to limit runs in the thin air of Denver, CO, as well as the entire Pacific Coast League. Super Bullpen or not.

A quick note on the Padres who I made fun of earlier. They will be bad. They will be very bad. They threw a lot of money at a first baseman who is not an all-world player by any metric. Eric Hosmer struggled to hit for power in Kansas City. He will surely struggle to hit for power in San Diego. That said, the Padres have a very exciting farm system and if AJ Preller has an ounce of impulse control in the next two years, he’ll retain a lot of that talent and be able to build a fun, young, exciting team, centered around future household names Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias, and MacKenzie Gore. But for now, get your house familiar with Freddy Galvis, Chase Headley 2.0, and Matt Szczur.

Los Angeles Dodgers 91-71
Colorado Rockies 85-77
Arizona Diamondbacks 82-82
San Francisco Giants 77-85
San Diego Padres 65-97

NL Playoffs

Philadelphia Phillies beat Colorado Rockies in one-game playoff to determine 2nd NL Wild Card.

Philadelphia Phillies beat St. Louis Cardinals in actual Wild Card game

NLDS: Chicago over Philadelphia in 3, Washington over Los Angeles in 5

NLCS: Chicago over Washington in 6

WORLD SERIES

Houston over Chicago in 6.

Sure, I could have picked something cute like the Twins over the Phillies, but Chicago and Houston are the two best teams in baseball right now, today, March 28. Trades can and will happen in June, July, and August. So all of this is just fun and games.

I give Houston the edge because of their rotation. I’ve been guilty of falling in love with deep starting rotations before (Philadelphia’s Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt one comes to mind), but the thing with Houston is that their offense is probably better than their rotation. And their rotation is baseball’s best. The only thing that derails Houston is a long-term injury to Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve. Outside of that, I see baseball’s first repeat World Series champion in 18 years.

AWARDS

AL Rookie of the Year: Gleyber Torres (IF/New York Yankees)
NL Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF/Atlanta Braves)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox)
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)

AL MVP: Carlos Correa (SS/Houston Astros)
NL MVP: Jason Heyward (OF/Chicago Cubs)

….I kid!

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (OF/Washington Nationals)

———

And for what it’s worth, I think Bryce will sign with the Cubs next offseason. But in the interim, I’ll enjoy being able to watch him in DC for as long as either of us are in this swamp.

How A Man From New York Made A Man From Massachusetts Fall In Love With A Team From Los Angeles

/ Jason / Leave a comment

When I was a junior in college (so many, many moons ago), I had a less-than-enjoyable roommate experience. He was very quiet, beyond introversion. He really did not speak much. Our interests barely intersected, if at all. He preferred dance music. I listened to…well, lets pretend that I was really into early 1980s hardcore and not, say, The Early November. I loved sports. He did not. I played sports video games. He definitely did not. I did not drink. He did. I was a communications major, focusing on broadcasting. He wanted to be a city planner.

This background is provided as a way of saying we didn’t spend a lot of nights sitting around the proverbial fire, singing campfire songs. Because I worked a full-time job in addition to being a full-time student, and because of my general aversion to socializing with drunk people, I would spend a lot of time alone. I was, by no means, a “loner.” But I would sit outside of my dorm with the other smokers, dragging on clove after clove. I would watch Seinfeld reruns and have AIM conversations with my high school friends in far off places. But on most nights at 10:00 p.m., I would have a date.

I grew up with baseball in my blood. My grandfather introduced me to the sport and I fell in love with boxscores, which probably explains my statheadedness now as a fully-formed (mostly) adult. But I grew up in Massachusetts and without cable television. I didn’t know National League baseball like a 12 year-old version of me would today. In fact, I wonder whether there is that delineation for a young baseball fan today.

The Los Angeles Dodgers always seemed like a mystery team to me. They weren’t very good in the days of my youth, so I never really got a chance to watch them play, as that only opportunity would have come in the playoffs. But I had seen pictures of Dodger Stadium and really bad Sega Genesis renderings of it and something about that outfield view and that bright, beautiful royal blue meant something to me. They were a baseball team, sure. But they just seemed, I don’t know, different.

I knew about Vincent Edward Scully, the team’s longtime broadcaster. I had heard his call of Kirk Gibson’s World Series Game 1 homer off of Dennis Eckersley. And I had heard his call of Hank Aaron’s 715th home run. But I had never listened to him call a game. Which, as an aspiring broadcaster, was probably the greatest disservice I could have done to myself.

And so, as a lonely college junior, with an MLB.TV subscription, I started watching Dodger games. And I started listening to Vin. Or maybe those sentences should be reversed.

At first, I didn’t have as much interest in rooting for the Dodgers. I certainly wasn’t a fan. Yet, nearly every night, for at least a few innings, I would sit at my computer, headphones on, and listen to this unique voice describe baseball like I had never heard it before. I learned factoids about players that no other announcer would even think to offer and certainly no boxscore would ever include.

Years would pass, but I would never lose that connection to Scully, which developed into a connection to the Dodgers and ultimately a love of and for the city of Los Angeles. I remember my first trip to Dodger Stadium, hearing a taped message from Vin over the PA system, and thinking, “this is more of a bucketlist item than I ever could have imagined.” I had spent countless hours in my early 20s “at” Dodger Stadium. Listening to Scully and the way he knew when to let the crowd speak made me feel, and I imagine many others feel, like we too were there. But actually being there was different. Actually looking out at the San Gabriel Mountains. Actually eating a Dodger dog. Actually looking up at the 5 tiers of early 1960s architectural beauty; it made me appreciate it all that much more. And since then, I have to say, I’ve become a fan of the Dodgers (albeit not at the expense of the Washington Nationals…).

Sunday afternoon will mark the last time Vin Scully will call a game from Dodger Stadium. He’s been calling Dodger games since the 1950s. And for many, many years, he’s done so without a color commentator.

The experience of listening to Vin can be described, but it can’t do it justice. There is no one, has never been anyone, and truly, will never, ever be anyone who mans the broadcast booth in the way that Vin Scully does.

He made many a quiet, boring, lonely college night better, simply by saying “It’s time for Dodger baseball.” And even now, those five words can improve any night for me, no matter how good. His voice has been such an important part of my life for the past decade that I honestly don’t know what baseball will be like for me without him.

What I do know is that I would not be the baseball fan that I am without him. I wouldn’t love Los Angeles like I do, without him. And I wouldn’t necessarily root for the Dodgers like I do, without him. Which is all the more interesting because Vin never makes it about the Dodgers. There are never any “we’s” in his commentary. He’s worked for the Dodgers in 7 different decades, but he considers himself no more a part of the team than the fan sitting in Section 114 should.

But to me, Vin is the Dodgers. He is west coast baseball. And he is the standard-bearer for his profession.

There are still some games left for Vin, as he’ll make a rare road trip and finish in San Francisco next Sunday, but for me, this Sunday’s game, his last at Dodger Stadium, will be special. Baseball, and thus, my life, will never be the same without him, welcoming me, a hardened, sarcastic, bitter East Coaster, into one of the most beautiful settings in baseball, with those magical 5 words. Sunday, it will indeed be time for Dodger baseball.

2016 MLB Preview

/ Jason / Leave a comment

Narrative intros are fun and all, but let’s just skip the amuse-bouche, shall we, and get to the entree.

AL EAST
I wrote in my 2015 preview that all five teams had a fatal flaw and that holds true in 2016 too. Toronto’s rotation is very thin after Marcus Stroman and (maybe) Marco Estrada. The Yankees have a lineup that reeks of regression, from Jacoby Ellsbury to Carlos Beltran to Alex Rodriguez to Mark Teixeira. And to boot, they will be without two of their fearsome relieving troika for at least the first month of the season (Aroldis Chapman: suspension, Andrew Miller: injury (NOTE: Miller says he will pitch through his wrist injury…). The Orioles wish they had a starting pitching situation like Toronto’s. The Red Sox have a Maybach, in David Price, riding on four shitty used tires from a salvage yard just hoping not to fall off the car by mid-April. And the Tampa Bay Rays have an offense that wouldn’t look so bad if Logan Morrison, Logan Forsythe, and Brad Miller were any good.

Last year, I took the team with the least glaring issue (Toronto) to win the division. Little did I know that the Blue Jays would prove me right, but only after making two blockbuster trade deadline moves. This year, I like the Yankees, insomuch as I am contractually obligated to pick one of these teams to make the playoffs.

1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL CENTRAL
Baseball’s most wide-open division, 1-5. You could make a reasonable-enough argument for any of these five teams to win the division. Cleveland has the powerhouse rotation. Kansas City has the experience (oh, and the really good defense and bullpen). Chicago has Chris Sale and some other guys. Detroit has a very good offense, albeit one that probably needs to get it done quickly if they are ever going to win a World Series. And Minnesota has more prospects than Alicia Vikander at speed-dating.

Cleveland will have trouble scoring runs with any great proclivity, especially with the corner outfield spots being manned by Rajai Davis and Marlon Byrd to start the season. Francisco Lindor is a special talent, but he doesn’t have the kind of home run pop that his fellow special SS talent Carlos Correa does. All of that said, Cleveland’s rotation and bullpen might be enough to keep them in games that clubs like the Orioles and Red Sox would lose because of who they’re pitching in their 2-5 spots.

For Kansas City, I feel as though, at some point, not having good starting pitchers has to catch up to you. And let’s be clear: the Royals do not have good starting pitchers. I’m sure Chris Young and Kris Medlen are fine people, but for either of them to be starting pitchers on a World Series contender just seems…wrong?

Chicago and Detroit aren’t worth me burning myself out here. The White Sox made some nice offensive upgrades, but their bullpen is undesirable. Detroit added Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Upton to a team that struggled quite a bit in 2015. I’m not sure that at this stage in their careers, moving to the American League and to a pitcher’s park, respectively, will really do much to boost either’s contribution. If we just assume that Zimmermann and Upton are taking over for straight replacement-level players, we are only talking about a combined 7.5 wins. That gets Detroit to a .500 record. And while I realize that isn’t exactly how WAR works, it’s important to also remember that WAR doesn’t work the other way. Simply adding a name like Justin Upton does not guarantee success. It sounds really nice, but if you’re not upgrading elsewhere in the lineup, then you are what you were, but just a little better.

Minnesota is very, very intriguing. Between Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios, they’ve got the makings of a World Series contender. Only, perhaps in 2018. Once Berrios replaces Ricky Nolasco or Tom Milone, the Twins will be a must-watch club every fifth day. Until then, you’ve got some exciting young guys, an All-Star second baseman (Brian Dozier), a former All-Star in Joe Mauer, and some less-than complimentary pieces. That doesn’t make them boring, certainly, but it also doesn’t make them a contender quite yet.

1. Cleveland Indians
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Detroit Tigers

AL WEST
Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros. Houston Astros.

Now that I’ve gotten that out of my system…

This is a two horse race between the Texas Rangers and a club I have previously mentioned. Texas has the potential to hit teams with a 1-2 combo unlike any other in this division with Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. After them, it’s like Russian Roulette but there are extra bullets in the chamber and you’re the only one playing. The Astros have the reigning Cy Young winner in Dallas Keuchel, an electric prospect in Lance McCullers, and a group of Major League-quality veteran starters (Collin McHugh, Doug Fister, and Mike Fiers).

Texas’ offense is probably deeper and better, all-around, than Houston’s, but the Astros probably have the best two players in Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.

Look, there are no perfect baseball teams. Even the Cubs aren’t perfect. But Houston and Texas are really, really good. Ultimately, their goodness and the rest of this division’s mediocrity to poorness won’t mean much because both will likely make the playoffs. In fact, I would almost expect them to finish 1, 2 in terms of best record in the AL, after feasting on mediocre Seattle, subpar Los Angeles, and hilariously, sublimely awful Oakland all year.

1. Texas Rangers
2. Houston Astros
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California Angels
5. Oakland Athletics

AL PLAYOFFS
Wild Card: Houston over Kansas City
A revenge win for the Astros after Kansas City staved off elimination in their 2015 ALDS series. A rested Dallas Keuchel is better than anything the Royals could currently throw out there, even given Kansas City’s recent dominance in must-win games.

ALDS: Houston over Texas, Cleveland over New York
It’s hard to bet against a team that puts Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish on the bump twice in a Best-of-5, but I have that much faith in Lance McCullers and Collin McHugh. Add in the expected midseason call-up of AJ Reed at first base and I think Houston will have leveled the offensive playing field with Texas.

Cleveland’s rotation wipes the Yankees out of the playoffs in a blur

ALCS: Houston over Cleveland
Here is where Cleveland’s run-scoring issues and 1-3 rotation become a problem. None of Kluber, Carrasco, or Salazar will have ever pitched this late into a season. I can easily see Terry Francona eschewing a Trevor Bauer playoff start for throwing Salazar back out there, only to see a tiring young arm getting battered by the playoff-tested Astros. There’s a lot to be said about rotation depth in the playoffs. Getting a big start or two from your number 3 or four starter is key. Collin McHugh and Doug Fister are veteran starters and groundball pitchers who can neutralize a team that struggles to score runs, like the Indians.

——————————————————————————
NL EAST
We aren’t going to spend much time talking about the Braves or Phillies. Both actually had productive offseasons, but that productivity won’t start to pay dividends until next season, at the earliest.

For Miami, I see a team with absolutely no identity. Never fully committed to a rebuild. Never fully committed to paying the cost to succeed, the Marlins are, as always, who we thought they were. I expect their exciting young outfield (Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Giancarlo Stanton) to be far more productive in 2016 than they were last season. But is Dee Gordon really an All-Star? Was Wei-Yin Chen worth that contract? Will they trade Jose Fernandez, midseason, to a prospect-laden playoff team in need of a boost (Kansas City and the Dodgers come to mind)? Who really knows? The bullpen is paper thin and the starting rotation beyond Fernandez and Chen is AAA.

To steal a tagline from this season of the Real Housewives of Beverly Hills, the Washington Nationals are an enigma wrapped in a riddle and cash. This offseason they targeted Ben Zobrist to play second base. They ended up with Daniel Murphy. They made a push for Yoenis Cespedes. Instead they traded for Ben Revere. They replaced Jordan Zimmermann with a guy they demoted to the bullpen at the start of last season. And they hired Bud Black to be their manager, which is why Dusty Baker will be in the dugout on Opening Day.

Meanwhile, Stephen Strasburg is a free agent at the end of the season and if you think that he is going to re-sign with the Nats, I have a beautiful oceanfront property to sell you in eastern South Dakota. But will the Nats trade Strasburg at the trade deadline if they are 10 games behind the Mets? Of course not. Because this is the team that thought Ben Zobrist and Yoenis Cespedes wanted to play in front of 21,000 people a night, instead of playing at Wrigley Field and in New York City, respectively.

The Nationals are their own enigma. Or maybe they’re a riddle. They certainly have plenty of cash. It’s just that I’m not sure they know what to do with that cash. They didn’t want to give it to a very competent manager. But then they gave a lot of it to a second baseman who can’t defend his or any position on the diamond. They didn’t bother working on a long-term extension with reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper (at least publicly). And they didn’t seem to make any passing offer to Stephen Strasburg, indicating that they too know that he’ll be departing the club for Los Angeles or San Diego at the first chance (note: I don’t place one iota of blame on Stephen for that). But they also didn’t sell a full year of Strasburg to a desperate club like the Dodgers who missed out on a free agent starting pitcher.

All of this is to say, the New York Mets have a really great starting rotation (probably the best I’ve seen since the Phillies had Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt) and an offense that is more than good enough to win the NL East again.

1. New York Mets
2. Washington Nationals
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Miami Marlins
5. Atlanta Braves

NL CENTRAL
It probably sucks to be a Milwaukee Brewers or Cincinnati Reds fan. I mean, you couldn’t combine the two clubs into anything resembling a contender in this division. Look, I’ll try (I did this last year with Arizona and Colorado):

C Jonathan Lucroy
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Aaron Hill
SS Zack Cozart
LF Ryan Bruan
CF Billy Hamilton
RF Jay Bruce

SP Wily Peralta
SP Raisel Iglesias
SP Michael Lorenzen
SP Matt Garza
SP Taylor Jungmann

If you look at that team and think, “Yeah, playoffs,” you haven’t watched baseball for a few years. Because Brandon Phillips, Ryan Braun, and Jay Bruce might be nice names to look at, but they are all shells of their former selves. And that rotation…I’m having a panic attack.

Whereas the AL Central is wide open, but kind of iffy, this three horse race between the Pirates, Cardinals, and Cubs is going to be a blast. Great lineups. Good-to-great bullpens. Arguably 3 of the game’s 10 best right-handed starters (Gerrit Cole, Jake Arrieta, Adam Wainwright). What separates these clubs?

Chicago’s lineup. They’re not the best staff (I give that, by a nose, to St. Louis). They’re not the best bullpen (that’s Pittsburgh). They’re not the best defensive club (that’s probably Pittsburgh too). But Chicago’s lineup is truly a murderer’s row of historic proportions. The young superstars were very, very good last year. But consider that Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber now have another year under their belts. Then consider that they added Ben Zobrist, a machine created to get on-base, to replace Starlin Castro or Javy Baez. And then, if that weren’t enough, Jason Heyward. And now, if he can adapt to that role, you have a potential superstar in Jorge Soler serving as a pinch-hitter in the National League. And who manages the Cubs? Inarguably the best in-game manager in the Majors.

Is the hype machine really, really loud for Chicago? Sure. Has that worked out well for any team in recent years (2014 Nationals *cough*)? It has not. But something (somethings) will have to go terribly, terribly wrong in Chicago if the Cubs do not, at the very least, make the playoffs. And as we’ve seen, once you make the playoffs, everyone has a chance.

1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers

NL WEST
The most shocking move of this offseason was easily the Arizona Diamondbacks swooping in and taking Zack Greinke from the Dodgers. It was the kind of move that had me walking up to strangers asking them if they heard the news (I was at a holiday party). The Diamondbacks then made one of the most short-sighted trades in recent memory by sending 2015 top overall MLB Draft pick Dansby Swanson, top 100 prospect Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte (a good and useful outfielder) to Atlanta (as though trading Touki Toussaint to the Braves last season for nothing wasn’t enough) for Shelby Miller, a perfectly serviceable mid-rotation starter.

The Diamondbacks think they are in win-now mode. They spent the offseason raiding their farm system of its high-end talent to build what looks like a contender to, well, someone? I don’t see it at all. One elite offensive player (Paul Goldschmidt) and a very, very good one (AJ Pollock) does not, and never has, equaled glory. If Zack Greinke is still a Diamondback on Opening Day 2018, I will gladly eat crow, blue jay, and diamondback.

Remember last year when we (the collective baseball universe) talked a lot about the San Diego Padres? Yeah, that seems like it was a really long time ago. They’re different now. Better? Eh. Maybe.

The NL West race comes down to the Dodgers and Giants for most, but for me, this is the Giants’ division to lose. Could their offense use some additional power? Sure. Is their bullpen aging? Yes. Am I uncertain about their number five starter (probably Chris Heston, maybe Jake Peavy)? Yep. Am I nitpicking? Absolutely.

The Dodgers have been so ravaged by injuries and the Greinke signing that I just don’t see them recovering to make any real noise. Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the planet. But he is only 4% of the Dodgers roster. Corey Seager is the National League’s answer to Carlos Correa. But he too is only 4%. There are a lot of other pieces on this club that need to perform better than history indicates they can and better than their age says they should, for the Dodgers to challenge the Giants. Especially in an even year.

The Colorado Rockies.

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies

NL PLAYOFFS
Wild Card: St. Louis over Pittsburgh
They start the MLB season against each other and begin the playoffs against each other. I give St. Louis the win based on home-field advantage and Adam Wainwright’s very good postseason record (3.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). He’s a workhorse that can give the Cardinals 7 and turn it over to their bullpen of guys America Has Never Heard of Who Can Throw 100 MPH.

NLDS: Chicago over St. Louis, San Francisco over New York
I’ve talked a lot about Chicago and for good reason. I think their biggest flaw is in their rotational depth. Jake Arrieta is a sure-fire ace. But Jon Lester and John Lackey are aging starters. If they hold up for six months, the Cubs will still need at least 3 starts from both (but likely more) where they can bridge it to the backend of the Cubs’ bullpen. Chicago would be wise to add a few bullpen arms at the deadline, no matter the trade cost. You don’t want to have your season end because your middle relief couldn’t get you to the 8th or 9th inning. Ask the 2015 Astros about that. Or the Blue Jays. (All of this said, Chicago’s lineup is, just to reiterate, really, really good)

The Giants beating the Mets might be an upset to some, but, again, it’s an even numbered year. But more importantly, San Francisco can go with Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Cain in a playoff series. And more realistically, they can go with the best 3 of that group in a Best-of-5 series. Are Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija better than Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard? Some would say “no.” I would probably agree. But the gap isn’t nearly as wide as that between the Mets’ Yoenis Cespedes-centric offense, and San Francisco’s balanced approach with Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, etc.

NLCS: San Francisco over Chicago
…and this is where it all goes to hell.

The problem with a really great offense, even one as nearly flawless as Chicago’s, is that slumps seem to be contagious. It’s really hard (read: impossible) to predict a slump for a powerful offense six days away from a series, nevermind six months. But the Championship Series is where, it seems, great offenses have recently gone to die. The Cubs last year. The Blue Jays last year. Those are just the most recent examples.

As long as Madison Bumgarner is healthy and the Giants are in the playoffs, they are a team to be avoided. And with the depth they added to their rotation (and let me be clear: I think Johnny Cueto will be a Cy Young contender pitching in San Francisco this season), the Giants are poised to keep this very weird “even year” thing going.

——————————————————————————–
WORLD SERIES
San Francisco over Houston

Do you like orange?

You’ll probably read this as one of two things: 1.) He’s trying to jinx the Giants and/or 2.) He’s leaning too heavily on something that is truly just an aberration (the “even year” thing). Trust me, I’m not.

San Francisco’s lineup isn’t anywhere near as good as Chicago’s. It’s not the 1927 Yankees. But what it is is balanced. I keep using that word. But there’s speed (Span, Pagan). There’s great contact hitting (Belt, Panik). There’s power (Posey, Pence). And the Giants are as well managed as any team short of the Cubs.

As for Houston, AJ Hinch is a rare example of a former player who is a competent manager. I watched more Astros games last season than any other team. And I intend on doing the same thing this season too. I’ve said about Stephen Curry that I feel so privileged to be able to watch him play basketball that I sometimes think about just dropping money through the vents on my TV. I feel similarly about Carlos Correa. Yes, I get to watch Bryce Harper and that is also wonderful. But there’s a simplicity to the way Correa plays. Bryce Harper is all effort. Don’t get me wrong. He is in possession of tools that any player would envy. But with Correa, he’s got tools, but he never looks like he’s about to kill himself while he’s using them. The game moves so slowly for him. He’s a joy to watch, just like Harper, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Curry, Gennady Golovkin, Lionel Messi, and any other athlete blessed with incredible talent and work ethic. Correa is part of a special group of athletes in sports right now.

That said, Correa will have his day. I just don’t think 2016 will be that day. Houston may very well make a big trade at the deadline and add a pitcher like they did with Scott Kazmir last season. Or they’ll add an offensive player like they did with Carlos Gomez. They have the prospects to do it. They could frankly add both. And if they do, this prediction could change. But right now, as March turns to April, I think the Giants have the organization best suited to winning the 2016 World Series.

——————————————————————————
SOME AWARDS
AL MVP: Mike Trout (OF/LAA): I think the Angels will struggle this season, but it will have nothing to do with the best player in baseball. Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor will be in the conversation. But it’ll be a forced conversation.

NL MVP: Kris Bryant (3B/CHC): I see Anthony Rizzo as a popular pick and he is the de facto leader of the “Paper Champions.” But Bryant has the sort of raw power that will allow him to put up numbers that Rizzo just can’t. Also, it’s always worth mentioning Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton. They won’t be playing baseball for contenders, but they’ll be playing great baseball regardless.

AL Cy Young: Danny Salazar (Cleveland): I’m out on a big limb here. But I look at Salazar as a Dallas Keuchel-type. Keuchel was a very good pitcher coming into last season who put it together because he figured out how to be his best self. Salazar has the sort of “stuff” that Keuchel doesn’t. He did a great job of cutting down on his walks last season. Cutting down on the contact that he draws (easier said than done) will do the trick for Salazar.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles): He has a herculean task ahead of him. He will need to carry a staff that consists of Kenta Maeda, Zach Lee, Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Frias, Alex Wood, Mike Bolsinger, and any other flotsam and jetsam that the Dodgers can acquire or call up from AAA Albuquerque. Kershaw can do it. I think he will carry the Dodgers to the brink of the playoffs on the shoulders of a sub 2.00 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. It won’t be enough for the boys in blue, but it will be enough for Kershaw to take home another one of these.

AL Rookie of the Year: Nomar Mazara (OF/Tex): Once the Ian Desmond project fails spectacularly (let’s go with…late-April), Texas can call up the stud Mazara and he will rake for the next 10-15 years.

NL Rookie of the Year: Steven Matz (SP/NYM): The forgotten man in the Mets rotation. A really effective lefty who will start the season in the rotation and avoid some of the New York spotlight that the likes of Harvey, Cespedes, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Neil Walker will soak up. Okay, maybe not Neil Walker.

——————————————————————————–
WHERE I WILL BE WRONG
Here’s a “fun” section. The top 5 things I’ve written above that I wouldn’t bet the life of my fake pet turtle on:

5. Danny Salazar winning the AL Cy Young
4. Houston making the World Series
3. Seattle not making noise in the AL West
2. Dusty Baker and the Washington Nationals (happily) proving me wrong and winning the NL East
1. I have an uneasy feeling about Mike Trout. I don’t know what it is. Maybe it’s the Angels’ general mediocrity. But it shouldn’t feel like “going out on a limb” to predict Trout to win his second MVP. But it was for me.

As with the entire baseball season, time (a lot of it) will tell. For now, enjoy the start of the season!